2014 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

And then there were two.  The Tony Awards for Best Play and Best Musical are the most coveted of all theatrical awards, because they are the only two that have any proven effect on box office receipts.  I don't believe for one second that the beautifully done but decidedly different Once would still be running if not for its Best Musical win two years ago, and Kinky Boots was just another show until it won the big prize last year and then suddenly became one of the hottest tickets in town.  And while the Best Play recipient doesn't receive as much of a box office boost, winning the Tony definitely increases interest in the play, ensuring a far greater number of regional and amateur productions in the future

 

So which two shows can look forward to a raised profile after Sunday's awards?  Read on to find out!

Best Play

Walter White Bryan Cranston and the cast of All the Way.

 

Nominees: Act One; All the Way; Casa Valentina; Mothers and Sons; Outside Mullingar

The Best Play category definitely caused the most surprise when this year's nominations were announced.  Despite a general consensus that this season was not a particularly strong one for new plays, this was the only category to benefit from the rule change that allowed an increased number of nominees.  It definitely left people (myself included) scratching their heads, especially when arguably stronger fields like Best Musical and Best Revival only produced four nominees apiece.

Since John Patrick Shanley's Outside Mullingar only received one nomination, I can't imagine the long-closed show actually managing a win here.  And although it has its supporters, I think Mothers and Sons is pretty much out of the running as well.  That is as it should be; the play touches upon some emotional issues, but does none of them justice thanks to poor writing, haphazard characterization, and uneven performances.  There is enough support of MTC's Casa Valentina that I would consider it a dark horse candidate, although I think playwright and industry icon Harvey Fierstein has gone back to the drag/crossdressing well one too many times for voters to award him the big prize.  The always genial Fierstein will just have to content himself by counting the royalties from the still-running Newsies and Kinky Boots.

The "race," if you can even call it that, is between Lincoln Center's Act One and political drama All the Way.  The heavy use of quotation marks comes from the fact that pretty much everyone agrees that All the Way is destined to win on Tony night, having won every other Best New Play award of the season.  The long and sometimes meandering Act One does seem to hold a special place in the hearts of older industry folk, but All the Way is the play to beat.

Should Win: I've only seen one of the nominees, so I don't really feel qualified to answer this one
Will Win: All the Way

 

Best Musical

Just as protagonist Monty Navarro steadily slays all the D'Ysquiths between him and his inheritance, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder has steadily taken on every challenger this awards season.

 

Nominees:  After Midnight; Aladdin; Beautiful: The Carole King Musical; A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

This is another race that was over virtually before it began.  If any show besides A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder wins this award on Sunday, it will be the biggest shock since Avenue Q toppled the mighty Wicked ten years ago. 

That is not to imply that the other nominees aren't worthy.  After Midnight will be penalized by Tony voters for being "just" a revue rather than book musical, but it is a lovingly rendered and highly entertaining revue that features the most talented group of music makers on Broadway (both the singers and the fantastic jazz band).  I personally loved Aladdin, as did many others.  In my opinion it is the most successful Disney stage adaptation yet, at least when it comes to incorporating new material in with the pre-existing songs and plot (the added material in Disney benchmark The Lion King has always felt tacked on to me).  But other people felt that the slick presentation took away from the emotional heart of the piece, and that keeps it from being a real contender for the Best Musical prize.

The only show that poses any sort of threat to Gentleman's Guide is Beautiful, the modest musical about the life of singer/songwriter Carole King which has been steadily winning converts since it premiered in January.  Beautiful has proven to be a reliable box office draw, something that is very important to the out-of-town voters who would prefer to give the Tony to something that will tour well.  But the Broadway theatrical community has gotten pretty sick of jukebox musicals, especially ones that so clearly ape the formula that made Jersey Boys a success.  It would be almost hypocritical for the people who complain so loudly about the lack of originality in musicals to pass over Gentleman's Guide in favor of Beautiful, no matter how much they may like Jessie Mueller as Carole King.  Plus, Gentleman's Guide's modernization of the Gilbert and Sullivan blueprint feels positively refreshing in the current Broadway landscape, reminding everyone just how much fun an old-fashioned musical farce can be.

Will and Should Win: A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder


And that brings me to the end of my Tony predictions for 2014!  We'll find out how right (or wrong) I was on Sunday night, and until then you can review all of my predictions and commentary below.

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Revival

2014 Tony Predictions: Revival

The big day is fast approaching, and there are only four Tony categories left for me to predict.  The production categories are perhaps the most coveted of all Tony honors, since they recognize the entire show and not just one individual element.  These categories also caused an unusual amount of anticipation when the nominations were announced due to the recently enacted rule change allowing for anywhere between 3 and 5 nominees, depending on the number of eligible productions.  Now that we have our official contenders, it's time to discuss who will win, and whether or not they are the most deserving.

Best Revival of a Play

Stephen Fry and the company of last fall's all-male revival of Shakespeare's Twelfth Night.

 

Nominees: The Cripple of Inishmaan, The Glass Menagerie, A Raisin in the Sun, Twelfth Night

First, I want to reiterate my surprise that there are only four Best Revival of Play nominees, given the overwhelming number of incredibly well done revivals that premiered during this season.  It's a shame that neither of the Patrick Stewart/Ian McKellan repertory plays made the cut, and that Roundabout's highly regarded productions of little seen plays were also completely excluded.  That said, whether there had been a fifth nominee wouldn't have mattered, because this race has been between The Glass Menagerie and Twelfth Night since both premiered to critical raves last fall.

To me, the clear choice here is Twelfth Night.  I do not understand the critical praise showered upon The Glass Menagerie; I thought it was one of the worst things I saw last fall, well cast but ultimately ruined by John Tiffany's overly conceptual direction.  Meanwhile, Twelfth Night managed to take a play I've never cared for and make me love it, a feat all the more impressive considering it's one of Shakespeare's most performed comedies.  The gentlemen in the all-male Twelfth Night also acted circles around every other ensemble on Broadway this season, and with the benefit of hindsight on the now closed productions I think enough Tony voters realize Twelfth Night is more worthy of recognition.  I won't rule out a win for Menagerie the way I'm ruling out the pleasant Cripple of Inishmaan and Kenny Leon's acceptable retread of A Raisin in the Sun, but the smart money is on the Bard's comedy.

Will and Should Win:  Twelfth Night

 

Best Revival of a Musical

Neil Patrick Harris and his onstage band, The Angry Inch.

 

Nominees:  Hedwig and the Angry Inch, Les Miserables, Violet

Hedwig and the Angry Inch deserves this one by a mile.  It's the only one of the three nominees I don't have reservations about, and it managed to successfully scale up an intimate show for a big Broadway house.  Neil Patrick Harris is excellent in the title role, and director Michael Mayer has done a fantastic job staging the piece so it is both slick and fluid.  Meanwhile, Violet is a well-intentioned production of what to me is a problematic show, and despite the game actors it doesn't manage to completely overcome the script's structural issues and somewhat cliché message.  And Les Miserables is just awful, a shameless cash grab prompted by the *very* recent film version that lacks both the spectacle and the heart of the original production.  Despite heroic work by Ramin Karimloo as Jean Valjean, the rest of the cast sings with varying levels of proficiency and almost none of them act their roles with any conviction, making you feel every minute of the show's 3-hour runtime.  I have seen Les Miserables a half-dozen times over the years, and this revival is the first time I've thought the show is too damn long.

I supposed there is a slight chance Les Miserables wins, especially if the out-of-town voters pool their efforts behind it because it will tour better than the other shows (which probably won't tour at all).  But the sheen seems to have already worn off on the musical epic, while Neil Patrick Harris and Hedwig are white hot.  The fact that the latter production is also the most deserving just seals the deal.

Will and Should Win: Hedwig and the Angry Inch


Check back soon for my final 2014 Tony predictions, and check out the rest of my awards coverage below!

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor
Best Actress

2014 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

Without a doubt, these next two categories are the most competitive of this year's Tony races.  There are some phenomenal performances being given by some of Broadway's best-loved actresses, and the Best Actress in a Musical race is particularly brutal this year.  I will also admit that I have particularly strong feelings about these two races which may be blinding my objective judgement, so if I get these two wrong you'll know why.  With that said, here are my thoughts on who will (and should) win.

Best Actress in a Play

Audra McDonald is apparently incapable of delivering even an average performance; all of her Broadway outings have been virtually flawless.

 

 

Nominees: Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons; LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun; Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie; Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill; Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn

I think this Sunday will see Audra McDonald make history by collecting a record-breaking sixth Tony Award for her phenomenal work in Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill.  If she wins, not only will McDonald have received more acting Tonys than any performer in history, she will also be the first woman to win in all four performance categories.  Anyone who has seen McDonald in Lady Day knows the singing actress is doing an uncanny job of channeling the late Billie Holiday, but Broadway's reigning queen goes far beyond mere impersonation.  She is Holiday reincarnated, with a performance that is free of the artifice and forced mannerisms that often plagues actors tasked with playing real people.  It is an impeccable piece of acting, and definitely a worthy role to propel McDonald into the history books.

The only person with even the slightest chance of unseating McDonald is The Glass Menagerie's Cherry Jones, but it is a long shot to say the least.  Even though this beloved actress gave what some termed the performance of her career, McDonald just has too much of a lead (McDonald has won every guild award she has been eligible for this year).  Tyne Daly, LaTanya Richardson Jackson, and Estelle Parsons will just have to take solace in the fact they even managed to get nominated in such a competitive year.

NOTE: I should probably mention that McDonald is also my all-time favorite Broadway performer (I will go see her in anything), so I fully admit some personal bias has entered into this article.

Will and Should Win: Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill

 

Best Actress in a Musical

Performances on the level of Kelli O'Hara's in The Bridges of Madison County are rare.  If she doesn't win, the Tony voters will have lost major credibility points.

 

Nominess: Mary Bridget Davies, A Night with Janis Joplin; Sutton Foster, Violet; Idina Menzel, If/Then; Jessie Mueller, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical; Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County

If Kelli O'Hara does not win her long-overdue first Tony Award on Sunday, I am declaring this year's awards null and void.  O'Hara was absolutely sensational in the gone-too-soon Bridges of Madison County, giving a performance that is frankly on an entirely different level from this year's other nominees.  Her brilliance isn't just because of her phenomenal singing, although O'Hara's crystalline soprano has never sounded better than it did singing the breathtaking melodies Jason Robert Brown wrote specifically for her.  Her ability to give a nuanced, deeply felt and believably acted performance while singing the most difficult music of the season was a master class in musical theatre acting and the heights it can reach.  Add in the fact that O'Hara is a perpetual Tonys bridesmaid (this is her 5th nomination in the past 10 years) that is almost universally respected and earns raves even when her shows are critically panned, and it is time Tony voters wised up and gave her the damn award already.

Sutton Foster was perfectly charming in Violet, and gets extra points for stretching herself artistically with a more dramatic role than she typically tackles.  Idina Menzel was even better than expected in If/Then, a performance which is significantly more nuanced and accomplished than her work in Wicked 10 years ago (for which she won).  I have not personally seen Mary Bridget Davies or Jessie Mueller in their respective shows, but I'm sure they are lovely.  However, Kelli O'Hara has earned this, and picking anyone other than O'Hara as the winner would be a grave mistake.

It must be said that Mueller does pose a legitimate threat to O'Hara, as the talented young actress seems to be Broadway's latest It Girl.  Mueller has gone from being an unknown to headlining a major new musical in just 3 short years, but the fact of the matter is Mueller will have plenty more chances to win a Tony or two.  I also cannot fathom what Mueller could be doing in Beautiful (a dull sounding jukebox musical that holds no interest for me) that tops O'Hara's career-best work in Bridges.

There is a possibility Mueller wins the Tony; you might even say there is a strong possibility, since Mueller just took home the Drama Desk Award on Sunday, beating out O'Hara in the process.  But Mueller beating O'Hara would be wrong, and I have to believe Tony voters can see that.  If they mistakenly select Mueller on Sunday night, I firmly believe in 10 year's time the general population will look back and agree that O'Hara was more deserving for what may well become her signature role (similar to how most people now agree Bernadette Peters should have won for Sunday in the Park with George, even though Chita Rivera is an immense talent and no one begrudges her a Tony or two).  With all due respect to Mueller, she can wait another season or two.

Will and Should Win: Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County


And that covers all of the acting categories for this year's awards.  Check back tomorrow as I start to tackle this year's production categories, starting with the revivals.  And be sure to check out all of my previous Tonys coverage below!

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor



2014 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

In my last post we discussed the supporting men, and today we discuss the supporting women who are up for Tony Awards in just a couple weeks' time.  Predicting these two categories will be tough, as both races are pretty wide open at the moment.  And then you have to take into account that the actress who should win is not always the person who will when, which throws another wrench into any sort of speculation.  But I am nothing if not persistent, so read on to see my best guesses for this year's big winners.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

The always charming Celia Keenan-Bolger was ideally cast as Laura in The Glass Menagerie, even if director John Tiffany let her down with some of his more bizarre choices.

 

Nominees: Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan; Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie; Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun; Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun; Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina

Many deserving women are nominated in this category, but at the same time there aren't any that seem to demand Tony recognition.  The Cripple of Inishmann, despite positive reviews and the presence of Daniel Radcliffe in the title role, has proven to be a bit of a non-event in terms of box office and awards potential.  That will hurt Sarah Greene's chances, along with the fact that her character comes across as a tad two-dimensional due to the broad nature of playwright Martin McDonagh's script.  A Raisin in the Sun's Sophie Okonedo and Anika Noni Rose will likely cancel one another out, with the final nail in the coffin being the lukewarm critical reception to that revival in general.  Okonedo is not entirely out of the picture, although she does face the significant handicap of playing the same role Audra McDonald inhabited to Tony-winning effect only 10 years ago.

Mare Winningham of Casa Valentina has been this season's stealth awards contender.  She didn't receive a lot of attention when the Harvey Fierstein dramedy opened last month, but has been a regular fixture on Best Supporting Actress lists and won the Outer Critics Circle Award for her work in the show.  She is probably Celia Keenan-Bolger's biggest competition, although the latter drew universal praise for her lonely, damaged Laura in last fall's The Glass Menagerie.  This is Keenan-Bolger's 3rd career nomination, and she still has a lot of goodwill left from her equally praised turn in Peter and the Starcatcher 2 years ago, which only increases her chances of finally winning.  I'm going to give the slightest of edges to Keenan-Bolger, but she and Winningham are so neck and neck that this is almost too close to call.

Should Win:  Toss-up between Mare Winningham (Casa Valentina) and Celie Keenan-Bolger (The Glass Menagerie)
Will Win:  Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie                                                                     

 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Ingenues are deceptively simply roles to play.  With the wrong actress, they become boring or even worse, obnoxious.  Thankfully Lauren Worsham manages to avoid both of those pitfalls while looking absolutely *fabulous* in her Edwardian hat.

 

Nominees: Linda Emond, Cabaret; Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch; Anika Larsen, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical; Adriane Lenox, After Midnight; Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

This is certainly an eclectic group of nominees.  Lena Hall does a lot with very little in Hedwig and the Angry Inch, but in this case I think the nomination is the win, and would be very surprised if she was actually called up to the podium on June 8th.  Adriane Lenox is the only previous winner in this group, and although she nails her two big numbers in After Midnight I suspect Tony voters will opt to spread the wealth.  And Anika Larsen is a complete wildcard; despite Beautiful's clutch of nominations I don't consider it to be a serious contender for most awards, but the sheer number of nominations for a show with such a small amount of buzz (despite steadily strong box office) means it must have impressed a lot of people.  Larsen may reap the benefits of that love, especially since Beautiful's subject matter allows her to do more serious "Acting" than many of the nominees in this category.  (Even in musicals, there's the usual awards bias towards dramatic roles, even if it is less pronounced than in plays or film.)

Linda Emond probably deserved to win for her long-suffering wife in the Phillip Seymour Hoffman-led Death of a Salesman (writing these predictions, I'm realizing just how much I disagree with the way the 2012 Tony Awards turned out).  Although I haven't personally seen the show yet, I'm sure Emond is excellent in Roundabout's resurrected Cabaret, but the Tony committee's distaste for that production is probably her biggest stumbling block.  Which leaves us with newcomer Lauren Worsham, who is making a sensational Broadway debut in A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder.  Like 2011 winner Nikki M. James, Worsham plays the reliably winsome ingénue in a comedy dominated by two hilarious men, and like James, I think Worsham's ability to turn a potentially boring part into a fully formed, believable character will net her Tony gold this year.

Should Win:  Linda Emond, Cabaret
Will Win:  Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

That takes us through all of the Featured categories; check back soon for my predictions for Best Actor and Actress.  And in the interim, check out the rest of my 2014 Tony Awards coverage below!

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score
Best Featured Actor

2014 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

Today marks the first round of predictions for what I call the Big 12 categories (the 4 production and 8 acting Tonys handed out each year).  The reason I call them the Big 12 is they are generally seen as the most prestigious of the various Tony awards, and are the ones that are most likely to be bragged about in marketing materials and future Playbill bios.  In short, they seem to be the awards people care about the most, perhaps because they are the easiest ones for non-industry people to assess. 

 

Now normally at this point I would say "ladies first," but the fact of the matter is that the Best Actress and Featured Actress races this year are just more interesting and exciting, so I am saving those for later.  So without further ado, let's talk about this year's Featured Actor contenders!

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Actor Mark Rylance has publicly stated he doesn't believe in the use of microphones during live theatre, probably because he gets tired of doing a mic drop after every sensational performance.

 

Nominees:  Reed Birney, Casa Valentina; Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night; Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night; Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night; Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie

The obvious choice in this category is Mark Rylance.  A two-time Tony-winner who consistently receives critical raves, Rylance's take on Twelfth Night's love-struck Olivia was the talk of the town during the fall and winter months.  Rylance, choosing to emphasize Olivia's petulance and childishness rather than her regal nature, was responsible for more laughs per minute than any other performer this season, with a performance completely supported by Shakespeare's text while still feeling fresh and original.  Rylance certainly has my vote, and for months I've been convinced that this race was his to lose.

However, the fact that two of his hilarious costars also received nominations may cause vote splitting among Tony voters trying to choose their favorite actor from that all-male production.  If too many Twelfth Night fans decide to vote for Paul Chahidi (arguably the best Maria every) or Stephen Fry (a very funny Malvolio), it may allow Brian J. Smith to sneak in a surprise win for his portrayal of the pivotal Gentleman Caller in last fall's critically lauded The Glass Menagerie.  If Casa Valentina had more momentum behind it then Reed Birney might have a chance as a dark horse candidate, but I think critical affection for both Twelfth Night and Menagerie is simply too strong for Birney to overcome.  I'm still predicting a win for Rylance, but I won't be completely shocked if Smith is called up to the podium instead.

Will and Should Win:  Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night

 

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

You ain't never had a friend like Aladdin's James Monroe Iglehart, who has been bringing the house down 8 times a week during his showstopping rendition of the Oscar-nominated "Friend Like Me." 

 

Nominees: Danny Burstein, Cabaret; Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway; Joshua Henry, Violet; James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin; Jarrod Spector, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical

This race is much closer than Featured Actor in a Play, and there are several ways I can imagine it going.  I personally would consider Jarrod Spector the least likely winner, but at the same time the Tony voters clearly have a lot of affection for Beautiful.  As a two-time nominee Joshua Henry is automatically a more competitive than he would be otherwise; being nominated twice proves that the first time wasn't a fluke, and shows Tony voters clearly respect the up and coming performer.  But I just don't think this is Henry's year, which leaves us with three equally compelling candidates.

Aladdin's James Monroe Iglehart is one of the breakout stars of this Broadway season, stopping the show nightly with his fantastic rendition of "Friend Like Me."  Scene-stealing turns do quite well in the Featured categories, and the fact that Iglehart has made the role his own after Robin Williams' iconic work in the film version is mighty impressive.  But Bullets Over Broadway's Nick Cordero has been a consistent figure in every awards race this season, and has even won a couple of the guild awards for his gangster with a heart of gold (Cordero is also the center of his own big production number).  I wouldn't be surprised if he won, but I also have to handicap him since Tony voters are clearly less enamored with Bullets than some of the other awards-granting bodies.

And then there is the reliably great Danny Burstein, a Broadway stalwart who despite 5 career nominations has yet to actually win a Tony Award.  Burstein was robbed (ROBBED!) when Once's Steve Kazee won for his merely adequate Guy over Burstein's revelatory Buddy in Follies, and there is a building consensus among the Broadway community that it's about time the hardworking Burstein got his moment in the sun.  But Tony voters are even cooler towards Cabaret than they are towards Bullets, and I fear Burstein will be passed over once again.  I will give the edge to Iglehart, but Cordero is a strong possibility as well.

Should Win:  Danny Burstein, Cabaret
Will Win:  James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin (which for the record would not be nearly as egregious as picking Kazee over Burstein in 2012)


Be sure to check back daily over the next two weeks to get all the latest Tony coverage.  Next up are the ladies competing for Best Featured Actress, followed by the Lead Actors and Actresses.  And you can catch up on the rest of my Tony coverage by checking out the links below:

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score



2014 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Continuing my Tony predictions for the 2013-2014 Broadway season, it's time to turn my eye towards the writing of this season's musicals.  Since musicals are a collaborative art form, they are arguably harder (and definitely take longer) to write than a regular play, and there are a lot more places where something can go wrong.  It is also possible for elements of a show to succeed while the production as a whole doesn't, which is why this year's Best Book and Best Score categories aren't just copies of the Best Musical nominees.  So which shows will win the Book and Score Tonys on June 8th, and are they the same as the shows that deserve to win?  Find out below!

Best Book of a Musical

Jefferson Mays gets a lot of credit for his 8 scenery chewing characters in A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, but bookwriter Robert L. Freedman gave him some great material to work with.

 

Nominees:  Woody Allen, Bullets Over Broadway; Chad Beguelin, Aladdin; Robert L. Freedman, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder; Douglas McGrath, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical

It's very hard to imagine a scenario where A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's Robert. L. Freedman doesn't win this category.  Gentleman has the most Tony nominations of any show this year, clearly illustrating the Tony committee's fondness for the musical farce.  And since Gentleman's Guide doesn't really have any production numbers or marquee value stars, that love is entirely based on the show's witty, tightly paced writing.  Like most musical comedies, the destination isn't all that interesting (or even all that clear), but the journey there is filled with smart dialogue and characters that walk fine line between being large enough to elicit laughs and believable enough for the audience to invest in.

Given the ambivalence towards Bullets Over Broadway, I doubt Oscar-winner Woody Allen is much of a contender here (and whether true or not, the recent child molestation scandal will surely deter a few voters from supporting him).  The book of Beautiful was generally the most derided aspect of that show in critical reviews, and although I think Chad Beguelin did a better job than previous Disney musicals of incorporating new elements into the existing material, Aladdin's charms lie mostly in its musical numbers.  This one is deservedly Freedman's to lose.

Will and Should Win: Robert L. Freedman, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder 

Best Score

Jason Robert Brown turned The Bridges of Madison County from a trashy, critically derided novel into a legitimate work of art.  That should be worth a couple of Tony Awards on its own.

 

Nominees:  Alan Menken, Howard Ashman, Tim Rice and Chad Beguelin, Aladdin; Jason Robert Brown, The Bridges of Madison County; Steven Lutvak and Robert L. Freedman, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder; Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey, If/Then

This category is so lopsided it isn't even a race; it's just a formality between Jason Robert Brown and his second Best Score Tony.  The music for The Bridges of Madison County is one of the greatest examples of sustained artistic excellent in the past decade, gloriously sung by two of the most gifted vocalists working on Broadway today.  Epically grand and breathtakingly gorgeous, the score is packed to the gills with songs that stop the show with their sheer beauty (the picturesque yet mournful opening "To Build a Home," the folksy "Another Life," Kelli O'Hara's Act II stunner "Almost Real," and the climactic duet "One Second and a Million Miles").  Even the show's detractors were forced to admit that Brown's score is a masterwork, easily the best thing this gifted composer has ever written.

The only team with even the slightest possibility of scoring an upset is A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's Steven Lutvak and Robert L. Freedman.  Their Gilbert-and-Sullivan-esque score has more melodic invention than is apparent on first listen, and their deft lyrics are overflowing with wit and a decidedly cheeky sense of humor.  But this isn't a Wicked/Avenue Q situation, where the latter's consistently clever score surprisingly beat out the former's uneven mix of modern classics ("Popular," "Defying Gravity") and inert clunkers (anything involving the Wizard).  Bridges is fantastic from end to end, and will rightly win the Tony Award for its sustained excellence.

Will and Should Win: Jason Robert Brown, The Bridges of Madison County


Keep checking back throughout the next two weeks for more Tony predictions and commentary!  And catch up on any coverage you may have missed by checking out the following:

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography


2013 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

All of Broadway is brimming with anticipation for the big Tony Award ceremony on Sunday, and here at Broadway, Etc. there are only four more races to predict.  The production awards are perhaps the most prestigious of them all, as they acknowledge the work of everyone involved rather than particular individuals, indicating that the entire work is of the highest artistic merit.  These are the awards that are also most likely to affect a show’s bottom line, with a Best Musical win in particular proven to majorly increase a show’s box office.  Today we’ll be looking at this season’s nominated revivals and predicting which shows will walk away the big winners.

 

Best Revival of a Play

Tracy Letts and Amy Morton in the acclaimed 50th anniversary production of Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

 

Nominees:  Golden Boy, Orphans, The Trip to Bountiful, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

 

To me, the most deserving production in this category is obvious.  The latest Broadway mounting of Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? was not just this season’s best play revival, but the season’s best theatre period.  Under director Pam MacKinnon, the four person cast found an enormous amount of humor and emotional depth in the oft-produced American classic, making it feel as relevant and timely today as it did when it premiered fifty years ago.  Every aspect of the production was of the utmost quality, and despite all of the shows that have opened since it remains one of the most vivid and affecting nights I’ve had on Broadway all year.  Any other show winning would feel like blasphemy.

That said, I felt similarly about last season’s revival of Follies, and it was beaten by the upstart Porgy and Bess (which was admittedly very well-done).  I could envision a similar coup happening with Roundabout’s The Trip to Bountiful, as that well-liked show is the only one of the four nominees still running, and Cicely Tyson’s performance in particular is one of the most buzzed about of the season.  And last fall’s revival of Golden Boy received ecstatic reviews, with nary an unkind word spoken about it during or since.  In fact, the only show I have difficultly making a compelling case for is Orphans, which couldn’t manage to finish out its limited run despite edging out several other high-profile contenders for its slot among this year’s nominees.  But this is one category where I honestly don’t see anyone but the most deserving candidate winning, and so I have to give my vote to Virginia Woolf.

Will & Should Win:  Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Best Revival of a Musical

Chances are they've already engraved the Best Revival of a Musical trophy with Pippin's name, as the show is a shoo-in for the win.

 

Nominees:  Annie; Cinderella; The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Pippin

 

Perhaps the surest bet of the night, this category is clearly Pippin’s to lose, and I honestly can’t see any of the other nominated shows upstaging the circus-themed revival.  For whatever reason, the Tony voters clearly have little love for the James Lapine-helmed Annie, as this category marks the production’s sole nomination.  Its inclusion probably has as much to do with excluding the only other eligible show, the much-maligned Jekyll & Hyde, as it did with honoring the child-friendly revival.  And though delightfully entertaining while it was running, Roundabout’s The Mystery of Edwin Drood has practically faded from memory since it closed in early March.

The only potential fly in the ointment is the revised Cinderella, which despite a myriad of problems managed to secure nine Tony nominations.  How this complete butchering of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s telemovie managed to so greatly impress the nominating committee is beyond me, but I think it has enough detractors to keep it from being a serious threat.  There is also a contingent of voters who rightly question whether the show is a revival at all, as Cinderella has never before played Broadway and the current incarnation is so heavily rewritten that it bears shockingly little resemblance to the show most voters are familiar with.  Barring a major upset, Diane Paulus’ high-flying, spectacle-fueled Pippin will easily and deservedly dance away with this award, as the truly magical night at the theatre is a celebration of all that makes Broadway grand.

Will & Should Win:  Pippin

 

All that’s left to predict are the two biggest Tony races, Best Play and Best Musical.  Check back soon for that post, and tune in Sunday evening to see how well I did when the Tony Awards air live on CBS.  Until then, feel free to click the links below to the rest of my Tony coverage:

 

Best Actor

Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Tony Nomination React
2013 Tony Roundtable Podcast

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are getting closer every minute, and if I want to finish these prediction articles before next weekend I don’t have time for clever intros!  As you read on, please remember my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win (a distinction that will be further discussed in the body of the article).

Moving right along, here come the supporting men.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nominees:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher; Michael Cumpsty, End of the Rainbow; Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman; Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

I’m not sure how Michael Cumpsty managed to pull himself out from under the massive shadow cast by Tracie Bennett in End of the Rainbow, but good on him for securing one of the five Best Featured Actor nominations.  I hope he is proud of his accomplishment, because a nomination is where his Tony journey ends.  I suspect the same is true for Tom Edden in One Man, Two Guvnors.  While the British import received a host of nominations, I just don’t think it has enough industry buzz to actually win any of the big awards, especially with such strong competition among this season’s plays.

Jeremy Shamos plays two miserable human beings in Clybourne Park, and the fact that he can make you understand where they’re coming from is a testament to both his performance and Bruce Norris’ writing.  But the lack of nominations for his costars seems to indicate Tony voters are more impressed with the work as a whole then the individual performances, even though all are stellar.  Shamos is a long shot for the Featured Actor trophy, but he does have a shot, which is more than I’ll say for both Cumpsty and Edden.

I think this race boils down to Christian Borle versus Andrew Garfield, which raises the eternal acting debate of comedy versus drama.  Which is more difficult, and therefore more worthy of praise when executed successfully?  Tony voters have shown a proven bias toward both serious drama and Hollywood stars making strong Broadway debuts.  In Death of a Salesman, Garfield holds his own against some established stage veterans while bringing new life and immediacy to a well-known Arthur Miller role.  This same trick won Scarlett Johansson a Tony two years back, and I think Garfield has a good chance of repeating her success. 

Borle, on the other hand, has been handed a gem of a role as Peter and the Starcatcher’s scenery chewing villain Black Stache.  After years of solid performances, Stache seems to be Borle’s breakout role, and his work on NBC’s Smash has raised his profile to the point where Tony voters can pretend that in picking him, they are honoring one of the Hollywood stars they love so much.  Borle is also the well-liked Starcatcher’s best shot at an actual win, and I think we’ll be hearing him gush about what a fantastic year he’s had when they call him up to the podium on Tony night.  Poor Mr. Garfield will just have to count his upcoming Amazing Spider-Man royalties in consolation.

Will Win:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher

Should Win:  Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman (not because Borle is bad, but because in this case I genuinely believe what Garfield accomplished was harder)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Nominees:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess; Michael Cerveris, Evita; David Alan Grier, Porgy and Bess; Michael McGarth, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

I was distinctly unimpressed with David Alan Grier’s performance when I saw Porgy and Bess back in January.  The actor didn’t seem to have a proper handle on his character, and the Sportin’ Life who sang “There’s a Boat That’s Leaving Soon” was vastly different than the one who proclaimed “It Ain’t Necessarily So.”  Revisiting the show last month, I’m happy to report that Grier has smoothed out a lot of inconsistencies in his characterization, but I still doubt most voters would consider the performance Tony-worthy. 

Michael Cerveris is probably the best thing about the current Evita revival, at least from an acting standpoint.  Unfortunately, the role of Juan Peron is even more underwritten than most Andrew Lloyd Webber roles, and even an actor Cerveris’ caliber can’t quite hide the fact that he’s working with pretty poor material.  Similarly, Michael McGarth deserves a better show than the misguided Nice Work.  Despite being the most reliably funny aspect of the show, I suspect a general indifference towards Nice Work will keep McGarth out of serious contention.

Phillip Boykin deserves to win this award, as his supremely menacing Crown is the sort of operatic presence Porgy and Bess demands even in this revised musical version.  Boykin is the only cast member who can hold his own vocally against Audra McDonald, and he breathes full life into what could easily become a cartoonishly evil character.  If you need any proof of how well Boykin does his job, just listen to the cheers that erupt from the audience when Norm Lewis’ Porgy finally triumphs over the brute.

But a part of me fears that Josh Young might just rain on Boykin’s parade.  Young is the only nominee in this category I haven’t personally seen, as he was out the night I saw Superstar.  In fact, he was out for a large portion of the preview period and the month immediately following.  While I know these actors are only human, missing so many shows so soon in the run does make me question someone’s Tony worthiness.  Theatre acting is about being able to turn in a stellar performance eight times a week; if you can’t keep yourself healthy, or worse yet blow your voice due to poor singing technique, then I don’t think you’re ready for theatre’s highest honor.  The fact that Young got nominated despite all his missed performances indicates he is either excellent receiving a large pity vote, or both.  I’m going to go with my heart and predict Boykin wins, but I would not be surprised if Young’s name is called on June 10^th instead.

Will & Should Win:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess

Catch up on my other Tony predictions below:

Featured Actress
Book & Score
Direction & Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

Now we get to the meat of the Tonys, the acting awards.  Given the sheer volume of eligible work, someone always gets snubbed when the nominations are handed out, and even then there are still several deserving candidates for each statuette.  Before reading any father, please remember my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win, especially in the acting categories.  As always, I will point out those discrepancies in the body of the article.

Since any gentleman knows that its ladies first, here are my predictions for the Best Supporting Actress categories.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Linda Emond, Death of a Salesman; Spencer Kayden, Don’t Dress for Dinner; Celia Keenan-Bolger, Peter and the Starcatcher; Judith Light, Other Desert Cities; Condola Rashad, Stick Fly

Right off the bat, I think we can count out Spencer Kayden and Condola Rashad.  Kayden is the only bright spot in a critical and commercial failure, and if it weren’t produced by the not-for-profit Roundabout Theatre Company I’m sure Don’t Dress for Dinner would have already posted a closing notice.  Rashad could be called a dark horse candidate, but while critics loved her, Stick Fly as a whole didn’t make much of an impression and closed months ago.  One of the biggest advantages a Tony nominee can have is being in a currently running show, which leaves Rashad with an uphill battle that I doubt she can win.

While I have not personally seen Peter and the Starcatcher, my understanding is that all of the actors play multiple roles, which always impresses Tony voters and is a major plus for Celia Keenan-Bolger.  Unfortunately, Peter isn’t as “serious” a work as Death of a Salesman or Other Desert Cities, which probably negates any advantage the multiple role trick gave her.  In straight plays, Tony voters tend to reward dramatic acting or its exact opposite, full-on farce; anything in-between like Peter goes underappreciated.

If we rule out Keenan-Bolger, we are left with Judith Light and Linda Emond, with the edge definitely going to the latter.  Emond is clearly the female lead in Salesman, with all of the accompanying stage time and character development, giving her more and better material to work with than her fellow nominees.  This same situation led Nikki M. James to a somewhat surprising but wholly deserved Featured Actress in a Musical win last year, and I expect a similar outcome for Emond.  And lest you think it all comes down to politics, I have seen Salesman and can assure you she is devastatingly good, easily holding her own against Phillip Seymour Hoffman and making even the play’s most famous lines sound fresh and alive.

Will & Should Win:  Linda Emond, Death of a Salesman

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Elizabeth A. Davis, Once; Jayne Houdyshell, Follies; Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Jessie Mueller, On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost the Musical

For me, this is a somewhat odd list of nominees.  It’s not that I think any of the included ladies are bad, but I don’t quite understand what some of them did to edge out other equally fine performances.  For instance, as hilarious as she was singing “Broadway Baby,” was Jayne Houdyshell really that much better than her Follies costars Elaine Page or Terri White?  And how did Elizabeth A. Davis, even with her striking good looks and beautiful singing voice, get herself nominated when the rest of the ensemble of Once went unrecognized?  I suspect I am not the only one who feels this way, and it is a sentiment that will probably prevent either of them from leaving the Beacon theatre a winning next Sunday.

Now, I hesitate to say I don’t want Da’Vine Joy Randolph to win, but…I don’t want her to win.  I haven’t seen her in Ghost, and the problem is I don’t need to in order to know exactly what her performance is like.  I’m sure she’s sassy, fires off a succession of one-liners, and sings the hell out of her big, gospel-tinged solo.  Add in one or two “serious” moments masquerading as character depth, and you have the same performance given by almost every featured black actress in the past ten years.  It’s such a cliché that someone even wrote a song about it, although in fairness to the writers of Ghost they at least had the decency to make Randolph’s character integral to the plot.  But it still isn’t the sort of thing that should be rewarded with Tony Awards, especially because such a win will only encourage musical theatre writers to continue using this stereotype rather than creating roles of substance for black women.

Judy Kaye is perfectly fine in Nice Work If You Can Get It, but I don’t think this role will net the Tony Award-winner a second statuette.  The show as a whole is too run-of-the-mill, and Kaye doesn’t do enough to rise above that.  On the other hand, Jessie Mueller did rise above her subpar show and gave one of the most praised supporting turns of the season.  Everyone who actually saw On a Clear Day agrees that Mueller’s big number was the highlight of the evening and a genuine showstopper.  Plus, Broadway loves a Cinderella story, and what could be more fairy tale-esque than a young woman playing the lead in her Broadway debut, stealing the show, and winning a Tony for it?

Will & Should Win:  Jessie Mueller, On a Clear Day You Can See Forever

That’s all for now.  Check back soon to see which Featured Actors should be practicing their acceptance speeches.  And check out the rest of my Tony predictions here:

Score &Book

Direction& Choreography

My Nominees for the 2012 Tony Awards

Before the Tony Awards nominations are announced tomorrow morning, I thought I would compile a list of my predictions for the eventual nominees.  While I certainly *hope* that you take the time to read all of my Tony Watch articles (the latest of which can be found here) on this same subject, this should provide an easy frame of reference for those of you who haven’t gotten to all of them yet.

Plus, it’s nice to take one final look back now that all the shows have opened and we can put everything in perspective.  And having an official list will make it easier to see how accurate my predictions actually are.  So here are my picks for all the major Tony categories, along with a Runner-Up that I could see knocking one of my nominees out of the running.

Andrew Garfield in Death of a Salesman

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman
Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher
Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park
Michael Esper, The Lyons
Thomas Sadoski, Other Desert Cities
Runner-Up:  Dick Latessa, The Lyons                           

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Angela Lansbury, The Best Man

Celia Keenan-Bolger, Peter and the Starcatcher

Condola Rashad, Stick Fly

Judith Light, Other Desert Cities

Linda Edmond, Death of a Salesman

Runner-Up:  Christina Kirk, Clybourne Park

Phillip Boykin in Porgy and Bess

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

David Alan Grier, Porgy and Bess

Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

Michael Cerveris, Evita

Patrick Page, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark

Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess

Runner-Up:  Tom Hewitt, Jesus Christ Superstar

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost

Elaine Page, Follies

Jessie Mueller, On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever

Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It

Melissa van der Schyff, Bonnie and Clyde

Runner-Up:  Terri White, Follies

Tracie Bennett in End of the Rainbow

Best Actor in a Play

Alan Rickman, Seminar
James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors
James Earl Jones, The Best Man
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman
Stacy Keach, Other Desert Cities
Runner-Up:  Hugh Dancy, Venus in Fur

Best Actress in a Play

Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Linda Lavin, The Lyons

Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities

Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

Runner-Up:  Jennifer Lim, Chinglish

Jan Maxwell in Follies

Best Actor in a Musical

Danny Burstein, Follies

Jeremy Jordan, Newsies/Bonnie and Clyde

Norm Lewis, Porgy and Bess

Rob Raines, Follies

Steve Kazee, Once

Runner-Up:  Raul Esparza, Leap of Faith

Best Actress in a Musical

Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess

Bernadette Peters, Follies

Cristin Milioti, Once

Jan Maxwell, Follies

Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It

Runner-Up:  Elena Roger, Evita

Elaine Paige and the boys of Follies

 Best Revival of a Play
The Best Man
Death of a Salesman
A Streetcar Named Desire
Wit
Runner-Up:  Master Class

Best Revival of a Musical

Evita

Follies

Jesus Christ Superstar

Porgy and Bess

Runner-Up:  Godspell

The cast of Newsies

Best Play

Clybourne Park
Other Desert Cities
Peter and the Starcatcher
Venus in Fur
Runner-Up:  The Lyons

Best Musical

Newsies

Nice Work If You Can Get It

Once

Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark

Runner-Up:  Bonnie and Clyde

Check back tomorrow morning to see how I did!