2014 Tony Predictions: Revival

The big day is fast approaching, and there are only four Tony categories left for me to predict.  The production categories are perhaps the most coveted of all Tony honors, since they recognize the entire show and not just one individual element.  These categories also caused an unusual amount of anticipation when the nominations were announced due to the recently enacted rule change allowing for anywhere between 3 and 5 nominees, depending on the number of eligible productions.  Now that we have our official contenders, it's time to discuss who will win, and whether or not they are the most deserving.

Best Revival of a Play

Stephen Fry and the company of last fall's all-male revival of Shakespeare's Twelfth Night.

 

Nominees: The Cripple of Inishmaan, The Glass Menagerie, A Raisin in the Sun, Twelfth Night

First, I want to reiterate my surprise that there are only four Best Revival of Play nominees, given the overwhelming number of incredibly well done revivals that premiered during this season.  It's a shame that neither of the Patrick Stewart/Ian McKellan repertory plays made the cut, and that Roundabout's highly regarded productions of little seen plays were also completely excluded.  That said, whether there had been a fifth nominee wouldn't have mattered, because this race has been between The Glass Menagerie and Twelfth Night since both premiered to critical raves last fall.

To me, the clear choice here is Twelfth Night.  I do not understand the critical praise showered upon The Glass Menagerie; I thought it was one of the worst things I saw last fall, well cast but ultimately ruined by John Tiffany's overly conceptual direction.  Meanwhile, Twelfth Night managed to take a play I've never cared for and make me love it, a feat all the more impressive considering it's one of Shakespeare's most performed comedies.  The gentlemen in the all-male Twelfth Night also acted circles around every other ensemble on Broadway this season, and with the benefit of hindsight on the now closed productions I think enough Tony voters realize Twelfth Night is more worthy of recognition.  I won't rule out a win for Menagerie the way I'm ruling out the pleasant Cripple of Inishmaan and Kenny Leon's acceptable retread of A Raisin in the Sun, but the smart money is on the Bard's comedy.

Will and Should Win:  Twelfth Night

 

Best Revival of a Musical

Neil Patrick Harris and his onstage band, The Angry Inch.

 

Nominees:  Hedwig and the Angry Inch, Les Miserables, Violet

Hedwig and the Angry Inch deserves this one by a mile.  It's the only one of the three nominees I don't have reservations about, and it managed to successfully scale up an intimate show for a big Broadway house.  Neil Patrick Harris is excellent in the title role, and director Michael Mayer has done a fantastic job staging the piece so it is both slick and fluid.  Meanwhile, Violet is a well-intentioned production of what to me is a problematic show, and despite the game actors it doesn't manage to completely overcome the script's structural issues and somewhat cliché message.  And Les Miserables is just awful, a shameless cash grab prompted by the *very* recent film version that lacks both the spectacle and the heart of the original production.  Despite heroic work by Ramin Karimloo as Jean Valjean, the rest of the cast sings with varying levels of proficiency and almost none of them act their roles with any conviction, making you feel every minute of the show's 3-hour runtime.  I have seen Les Miserables a half-dozen times over the years, and this revival is the first time I've thought the show is too damn long.

I supposed there is a slight chance Les Miserables wins, especially if the out-of-town voters pool their efforts behind it because it will tour better than the other shows (which probably won't tour at all).  But the sheen seems to have already worn off on the musical epic, while Neil Patrick Harris and Hedwig are white hot.  The fact that the latter production is also the most deserving just seals the deal.

Will and Should Win: Hedwig and the Angry Inch


Check back soon for my final 2014 Tony predictions, and check out the rest of my awards coverage below!

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor
Best Actress

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

And just like that, it's Tony time!  After the seemingly never-ending winter endured by New York and the rest of the country, spring has sprung and with it comes a veritable deluge of new Broadway openings.  With Tony nominations just around the corner, it's time for my annual guessing game of which shows and performers will be waking up to very good news on Tuesday, April 29th. 

As always, I am working on a combination of firsthand experience, educated guesses, and wild speculation.  And just to give myself a bit of a buffer, I will be picking one Wildcard nominee in each category, representing the person or production I think most likely to unseat one of my official guesses (the Tony voters love throwing in a curveball every now and again).  Today I will focus on the production categories, since they are typically the easiest to predict, before following with my prediction for Lead Actor, Lead Actress and then, for the first time ever, Featured Actor/Actress.  Now let's make some predictions!

Best Musical

Every other piece on A Gentleman's Guide inevitably uses a picture of one of Jefferson Mays' 8 characters, so I'm bucking the trend and highlighting his equally talented costars Lisa O'Hare and Bryce Pinkham.

Thanks to a much discussed rule change back in February, this year's Best Musical category could potentially be expanded to five nominees instead of the traditional four, making things that much trickier to predict.  Even though the committee does not have to pick five nominees, I can't imagine they would have gone through the trouble of changing the rules not to exercise their newfound power this season.  That said, while this year saw an unusually high number of new musicals open on Broadway, very few were critical homeruns, so which five shows will make the cut is up for debate.

As far as sure things, I'd consider Disney's Aladdin a guaranteed nominee since many critics felt it was the Mouse House's most successful productions since The Lion King.  A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder has taken to bragging that it is the "best reviewed musical of the season," a claim which is backed up by the fact that it leads both the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards in total nominations; I think this delightfully clever farce will receive a well-earned nomination.  And although its status as a revue rather than a traditional book musical will hurt its chances of actually winning, the well-received After Midnight is a likely lock for a nomination as well.

After that, it's anyone's guess.  Bullets Over Broadway divided critics much more than I expected it to, and is conspicuously absent from the Drama Desk and Outer Critics lists (it did get a shout out from the Drama League, though).  Still, the show has such a wealth of talent involved and is one of the more commercial offerings of the season, so it can't be ruled out completely.  I personally thought Rocky was a bit of a train wreck, no matter how impressive the final twenty minutes are, but that show has done well in the guild nominations so far.  And the theatre community has definitely warmed to Beautiful, which has done consistently solid business since quietly opening this past January.  But Tony nominators typically like to include one "artsy" musical (think Next to Normal or Fela!), and the show most likely to fill that slot is Jason Robert Brown's gorgeous The Bridges of Madison County over the ambitious but flawed If/Then.  I'm hoping Bridges manages to KO Rocky (a great finale does not a good show make!), with Beautiful taking the final slot by being the least offensive option among the remaining shows.

Nominees:
After Midnight
Aladdin
Beautiful
The Bridges of Madison County
A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Wildcard:
Rocky

Best Play

Bryan Cranston and company are going All the Way...to the Tonys!

Unlike the Best Musical category, I don't think there are enough strong productions in this category to cause the Tony committee to nominate five shows.  I think we will see the traditional four nominees, with the safest bet being the Bryan Cranston-led All the Way.  Will Eno's bizarre, divisive The Realistic Joneses probably has enough admirers to net a nomination, especially given the strength of its starry cast.  Given the theatre community's respect for Terrance McNally and the fact that the play probably hits *very* close to home with a lot of Tony voters, I think Mothers and Sons has a good shot at a nomination, despite being mostly overlooked by the various guild awards.  The final slot will go to either Harvey Fierstein's Casa Valentina or John Patrick Shanely's Outside Mullingar.  Both authors are highly respected among the theatrical community, although Fierstein's decades of musical bookwriting may have damaged his playwriting street cred.  Then again, the entire community seems to love Fierstein not just as an artist but as a person, and his play is much fresher in voters' minds than the now shuttered Mullingar.  I'm going to stick by my guns and predict that Casa wins out in the end, although I won't be surprised if the committee does go with five nominees just to avoid having to choose.

Nominees:
All the Way
Casa Valentina
Mothers and Sons
The Realistic Jonses

Wildcard:
Outside Mullingar

Best Musical Revival

You guys, there is a LOT of cross dressing happening on Broadway these days.

The flip side of the rule change regarding the number of production category nominees is the much less talked about but in some ways more interesting possibility that the committee can REDUCE the number of slots in years with a lack of eligible quality productions.  I can't prove it, but I'm guessing that change is in direct response to the fact that for the past few years, Best Revival of a Musical has been the Tony's equivalent to a participation award; everyone who's eligible typically gets nominated.  Since the committee went out of its way to rule Roundabout's revival of their Cabaret revival eligible (even though it is the exact same production with the exact same creative team that won this award in 1998), I'm guessing we will see a four-nominee category where everything that could be included is.

Nominees:
Cabaret
Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Les Miserables
Violet

Wildcard:
The exclusion of Cabaret from this list

Best Play Revival

Of Mice and Men should get a Tony nomination, assuming star James Franco didn't call any members of the nominating committee a "little bitch."

The musicals may get all the press, but this has been an absolutely fantastic year for play revivals as well, and since the repertory productions from this fall are each being considered separately, there are 14(!) eligible shows in this category, many with fantastic reviews.  Even with 5 nominees someone is going to get snubbed, but there are a few productions I consider a lock for recognition.  Everyone and their mother went gaga over John Tiffany's The Glass Menagerie (except me, who named it one of the Worst Shows of 2013), and it is sure to be nominated.  So is the Mark Rylance-led Twelfth Night, a much more deserving show that is probably the frontrunner to win the whole thing.  Heading into the spring I would have considered the Denzel Washington-led A Raisin in the Sun a near certainty, but critics weren't as enthusiastic about it as they were about Fences a few seasons back.

Meanwhile, Roundabout got fantastic reviews for both The Winslow Boy and Machinal, although both shows have been off the boards for so long they probably aren't real contenders for recognition.  Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellan made the famously obtuse Waiting for Godot feel fresh and accessible, and given that American esteem for the two British thespians only increases with time they could very well push that production into contention.  Of Mice and Men and The Cripple of Inishmaan are both star-driven revivals that don't have the buzz of Washington's play but are doing pretty fantastic business, and Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill has the good fortune of being a starring vehicle for Broadway's reigning queen, Audra McDonald.  Of these, I think the newness factor will work in Inishmaan's favor, while Waiting for Godot and Of Mice and Men's star power will push them over the edge to the semi-surprising exclusion of A Raisin in the Sun.  Audra McDonald's guaranteed acting nomination for Lady Day will likely be seen by the nominations committee as a way to honor that entire production.

Nominees:
The Cripple of Inishmaan
The Glass Menagerie
Of Mice and Men
Twelfth Night
Waiting for Godot

Wildcard: 
A Raisin in the Sun


Those are my picks for the production categories; check back tomorrow to see my predictions for Best Actress, which includes perhaps the most competitive race of the season.

Insanely Early 2014 Tony Predictions: Part I

It's never too early to start discussing Tony Award contenders (at least, not for me).  And since we're in the middle of the winter no man's land between the fall and spring Broadway offerings, now is as good a time as any to look back on the first half of this season on the Great White Way.  Obviously we have a lot of shows left to open, so at this point only those who have made a major impression on the theatre-going community can be considered true Tony contenders.  As I do at the end of each theatre season, I'm going to go through all of the major Tony categories and note which productions and people I think have a real shot at recognition come nomination time. 

WARNING:  Occasional snark and a great deal of speculation to follow.

Best Musical

Smartly written and expertly cast, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder is easily the best of the fall's new musical offerings.

There were actually (surprisingly) a fair number of productions eligible for the Best Musical category over the past six months.  Unfortunately, there are also a lot more new musicals on the horizon, and this fall's shows (especially the ones that have closed) stand a good chance of being overshadowed/forgotten come Tony time.  If I were to pick the show with the highest chance of securing a Best Musical nomination, I would go with A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, which in addition to being hilarious is one of the smarter book musicals to come around in a long time.  If a second fall show sneaks into this category then the well-reviewed After Midnight has a shot, although it's status as a revue rather than a book show hurts its chances with the sometimes snobby Tony voters.

I personally enjoyed Big Fish, but it was a divisive show and that decreases its chances immensely, especially in the face of the formidable-looking spring line-up.  There's also the off chance that Baby Boomer baiting Beautiful scores a surprise nomination, but despite its rosy box office prospects I think it will ultimately be passed over by the more discerning voters.  A Night with Janis Joplin and First Date are ultimately slight entertainments unlikely to gain any serious awards traction, and if Soul Doctor gets mentioned at all on the Tony telecast it will likely be as the butt of somebody's joke.  I mean, does anyone even remember Soul Doctor happened?  And what is it going to take to get a show that lasts more than a few months into the Circle in the Square?

Best Play

As of right now, this is the weakest this category has been in years.  Most of the plays from the fall were star-driven revivals, with only A Time to Kill and The Snow Geese even eligible for this award.  Both were met with critical and audience indifference, and there are enough interesting-sounding plays scheduled for spring that I suspect both will be shut out of the Tonys.  *If* (and that's a very big "if") one of these plays were to be nominated, it would probably be Sharr White's WWI drama The Snow Geese, but I find that highly unlikely.

Best Musical Revival

In something I consider a celebration, there were no musical revivals on Broadway this fall.  Every tuner that premiered was a new show, so currently this is a wide open race.  There are also only 4 revivals scheduled for the spring, and that's assuming Roundabout's remounting of their Tony-winning Cabaret is even deemed eligible for competition (which I suspect it won't be).  So basically, everyone gets nominated!

Best Play Revival

Did anyone think that a 400-year-old Shakespeare comedy would be one of the critical and commercial smashes of the fall season?  But Mark Rylance and the all-male company have made Twelfth Night must-see, hysterical theatre.

Thanks to the repertory productions that took Broadway by storm, there are already plenty of play revivals eligible for this year's Tonys.  The double bill of Twelfth Night and Richard III in particular has been a box office and critical sensation, and I would be shocked if Twelfth Night wasn't nominated (in fact, at this moment I think it's the likely winner).  And while I personally hated it, most critics and audience members have been over the moon about this latest production of The Glass Menagerie, so I'm going to name it the second sure thing in this category.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see one of the Patrick Steward/Ian McKellan shows nominated (probably Waiting for Godot), although their slot is the most endangered should the spring revivals prove particularly strong and/or popular.  Despite fantastic reviews, the Roundabout's revivals of The Winslow Boy and Machinal lack the star power to be serious contenders, and the producers of the Daniel Craig-led Betrayal will likely have to content themselves with the millions of dollars they made from that sold out but not necessarily well-reviewed production.  Betrayal always had the air of being an event that was separate from rather than a part of the Broadway season, and the competition is simply too strong for even the mighty James Bond to conquer.


That's my take on the production races and where they stand so far.  There of course is always the chance for surprises, but history has taught us that shows which fail to make a major impression in the fall don't stand much chance at Tony love once the spring shows open (especially if the fall shows have shuttered before nominations are announced).  I am also making some of these predictions based on the assumed strength of the spring's offerings, so if that becomes a surprise in either direction (really strong or really weak overall), then things will change as well.

Check back soon for my thoughts on how the acting races are shaping up so far.

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

All of Broadway is brimming with anticipation for the big Tony Award ceremony on Sunday, and here at Broadway, Etc. there are only four more races to predict.  The production awards are perhaps the most prestigious of them all, as they acknowledge the work of everyone involved rather than particular individuals, indicating that the entire work is of the highest artistic merit.  These are the awards that are also most likely to affect a show’s bottom line, with a Best Musical win in particular proven to majorly increase a show’s box office.  Today we’ll be looking at this season’s nominated revivals and predicting which shows will walk away the big winners.

 

Best Revival of a Play

Tracy Letts and Amy Morton in the acclaimed 50th anniversary production of Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

 

Nominees:  Golden Boy, Orphans, The Trip to Bountiful, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

 

To me, the most deserving production in this category is obvious.  The latest Broadway mounting of Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? was not just this season’s best play revival, but the season’s best theatre period.  Under director Pam MacKinnon, the four person cast found an enormous amount of humor and emotional depth in the oft-produced American classic, making it feel as relevant and timely today as it did when it premiered fifty years ago.  Every aspect of the production was of the utmost quality, and despite all of the shows that have opened since it remains one of the most vivid and affecting nights I’ve had on Broadway all year.  Any other show winning would feel like blasphemy.

That said, I felt similarly about last season’s revival of Follies, and it was beaten by the upstart Porgy and Bess (which was admittedly very well-done).  I could envision a similar coup happening with Roundabout’s The Trip to Bountiful, as that well-liked show is the only one of the four nominees still running, and Cicely Tyson’s performance in particular is one of the most buzzed about of the season.  And last fall’s revival of Golden Boy received ecstatic reviews, with nary an unkind word spoken about it during or since.  In fact, the only show I have difficultly making a compelling case for is Orphans, which couldn’t manage to finish out its limited run despite edging out several other high-profile contenders for its slot among this year’s nominees.  But this is one category where I honestly don’t see anyone but the most deserving candidate winning, and so I have to give my vote to Virginia Woolf.

Will & Should Win:  Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Best Revival of a Musical

Chances are they've already engraved the Best Revival of a Musical trophy with Pippin's name, as the show is a shoo-in for the win.

 

Nominees:  Annie; Cinderella; The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Pippin

 

Perhaps the surest bet of the night, this category is clearly Pippin’s to lose, and I honestly can’t see any of the other nominated shows upstaging the circus-themed revival.  For whatever reason, the Tony voters clearly have little love for the James Lapine-helmed Annie, as this category marks the production’s sole nomination.  Its inclusion probably has as much to do with excluding the only other eligible show, the much-maligned Jekyll & Hyde, as it did with honoring the child-friendly revival.  And though delightfully entertaining while it was running, Roundabout’s The Mystery of Edwin Drood has practically faded from memory since it closed in early March.

The only potential fly in the ointment is the revised Cinderella, which despite a myriad of problems managed to secure nine Tony nominations.  How this complete butchering of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s telemovie managed to so greatly impress the nominating committee is beyond me, but I think it has enough detractors to keep it from being a serious threat.  There is also a contingent of voters who rightly question whether the show is a revival at all, as Cinderella has never before played Broadway and the current incarnation is so heavily rewritten that it bears shockingly little resemblance to the show most voters are familiar with.  Barring a major upset, Diane Paulus’ high-flying, spectacle-fueled Pippin will easily and deservedly dance away with this award, as the truly magical night at the theatre is a celebration of all that makes Broadway grand.

Will & Should Win:  Pippin

 

All that’s left to predict are the two biggest Tony races, Best Play and Best Musical.  Check back soon for that post, and tune in Sunday evening to see how well I did when the Tony Awards air live on CBS.  Until then, feel free to click the links below to the rest of my Tony coverage:

 

Best Actor

Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Tony Nomination React
2013 Tony Roundtable Podcast

Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I

With the last show of the 2012-2013 Broadway season officially open, we now enter my favorite time of the theatrical year:  Tony season!  To celebrate this joyous occasion, I’m going to be posting a series of articles dedicated to guessing which productions and people will be among this year’s nominees.  We’ll find out how well I did on April 30^th (last year I had an 82% success rate), but until then here’s some educated guesses and wild speculation to tide you over.  Enjoy!

Best Musical

 

Stark Sands (center) and the drag Angels in Kinky Boots

 

Kinky Boots and Matilda are a lock in this category.  Before either show even opened, it looked as if this year’s Best Musical race would be between Cyndi Lauper’s Broadway debut and the Olivier-winning smash, and so far that is still the case.  That leaves two slots for the season’s six other new musicals to fight over, a fight the critically lambasted Chaplin and Scandalous have no chance of winning.  The short-lived Hands on a Hardbody certainly had its admirers, but they are too few and far between to give it any serious momentum in this year’s awards race. 

If the Tonys were based solely on artistic merit – a novel idea, I know – the remaining two slots would go to Bring It On and A Christmas Story.  Both were highly entertaining pieces of escapist entertainment with well-constructed stories and endearing musical numbers.  Christmas Story in particular had an amazing score by Broadway newcomers Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, and I think that level of polish will propel it onto the nominees list.  But I think the fourth slot will go to Motown the Musical, as the Tonys have time and again shown favoritism towards commercially viable productions.  Motown is one of the major hits of the spring and a regular member of Broadway’s million dollar club; such financial prowess practically demands recognition by the Tony committee.  Couple in the fact that Bring It On closed what seems like eons ago, and Motown has the clear edge.

Nominees:

A Christmas Story
Kinky Boots
Matilda
Motown the Musical
Runner-Up:  Bring It On

Best Play

Jessica Hetch and Judith Light star in Manhattan Theatre Club's The Assembled Parties

The big question in the Best Play race is how seriously Tony voters will take the glut of one person shows that have opened this season.  Most of the solo outings have featured celebrities playing people other than themselves, so they would technically qualify, but I think the traditionally-minded Tony committee will shy away from honoring any of them with production nominations.

Manhattan Theatre Club’s The Other Place and The Assembled Parties, however, are exactly the kind of plays the Tonys like to recognize.  High-minded affairs from a prestigious non-profit, both works received glowing reviews and are the closest thing to sure bets in this category.  And the overwhelming amount of goodwill towards the late Nora Ephron practically guarantees her Lucky Guy is announced with the rest of the nominees come Tuesday morning.  As for the final slot, it’s something of a toss-up between Christopher Durang’s Vanya and Masha and Sonia and Spike and Douglas Carter Beane’s The Nance.  I’m going to give Durang the edge here, as his play is seen as a welcomed return to form whereas Beane’s burlesque comedy is viewed more as an excellent Nathan Lane vehicle rather than a strong show in its own right.

 

Nominees:

The Assembled Parties
Lucky Guy
The Other Place
Vanya and Masha and Sonia and Spike
Runner-Up:  The Nance

Best Revival of a Musical

Matthew James Thomas and the company of the Diane Paulus helmed Pippin

There are two things we can be certain of in this category:  that Diane Paulus’ circus-inspired Pippin will be among the nominees, and that the critically reviled Jekyll & Hyde will be completely ignored.  Now, since currently running shows with mass road appeal tend to have an edge among Tony voters, I think we can safely add both Annie (which was fairly good) and Cinderella (which was fairly awful) to the list of nominees.  That leaves one slot left for Elf and The Mystery of Edwin Drood to fight over, and since the theatrical community could barely muster up enthusiasm for Elf during the two months it ran I doubt Tony voters will honor it with a nomination.  Drood, on the other hand, was far better than any production of such awful material deserved to be, and therefore earns its place among the Best Musical Revival nominees.

 

Nominees:

Annie
Cinderella
The Mystery of Edwin Drood
Pippin
Runner-Up:  Elf (but who are we kidding, it doesn’t have a chance)
 

Best Revival of a Play

Tracy Letts as George and Amy Morton as Martha in the latest Broadway revival of Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

This is the one production category where I don’t think being a currently running show is going to make much of a difference.  If Steppenwolf Theatre Company’s production of Who’sAfraid of Virginia Woolf? doesn’t get nominated then we should just consider this entire year’s nominations null and void, as such an omission would be a clear sign of insanity on the committee’s part.  And as I can’t recall one negative word being spoken about Golden Boy, I think it’s a lock as well.

With five play revivals this season, simple probability says that Roundabout practically has to score one nomination, and I think it will be for The Trip to Bountiful. Besides being their most recent production, it has a high-profile cast led by a Hollywood legend that received very good reviews, and the New York theatre community has been particularly enamored with playwright Horton Foote as of late.  The final slot is difficult to predict, but I’m going to rule out Cat on a Hot Tin Roof and Glengarry Glen Ross for essentially the same reason:  they were poorly received productions that did not represent their Tony-winning headliners’ best work.  Orphans opened to similarly indifferent reviews, and is therefore also out of contention.  That leaves Macbeth and The Heiress as the only real contenders, and I think the latter has the edge.  While most critics loved Alan Cumming, they also felt his bravura turn overshadowed Shakespeare’s text, whereas people were generally pleased with the Victorian-set drama as a whole.

*Note:  Because this is my blog and I get to make the rules, I’m going to say should Roundabout manage two nominations in this category their well-reviewed take on Cyrano de Bergerac is next in line.*

 

Nominees:

Golden Boy
The Heiress
The Trip to Bountiful
Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Runners-Up:  Cyrano de Bergerac, Macbeth

 

Be sure to keep an eye out for the rest of my nomination predictions, and once the official nominees are announced on Tuesday look for my personal reactions and the beginning of a month’s worth of speculation!

2012 Tony Predictions - Best Revival

Now that we’ve discussed the creative categories and the acting nominees, all that’s left to predict are the production awards.  These awards are arguably the most prestigious, as theatre is a collaborative medium and a production win is an acknowledgement of excellent in all aspects of a particular show.  As I prepare to predict the season’s best revivals, please keep in mind my two caveats: 1) I have not necessarily seen all of the nominated productions; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which is not necessarily the same as who should win.  Any discrepancies in the two will be discussed in the body of the article.

Best Revival of a Play

Nominees:  Death of a Salesman, The Best Man, Master Class, Wit

Master Class is an extreme long shot in this category, as it opened and closed during the summer of 2011.  Tony voters have notoriously short memories, and given the sheer number of shows that have opened since then, Master Class should consider itself lucky for having been nominated at all.  It is particularly telling that the production’s star, Tyne Daly, failed to receive a Best Actress nomination despite her much ballyhooed turn as opera diva Maria Callas in a piece that is essentially a one woman show with interruptions. 

Wit suffers from a less severe version of the same problem.  Historically, winning a Best Revival trophy has been very difficult when a show isn’t being performed nightly to remind voters how good it is, and Wit has been closed for months.  Cynthia Nixon’s Best Actress nomination proves the show is still present in people’s minds, but despite being highly regarded I don’t think the production as a whole made enough of an impression to secure a Best Revival win.

The Best Man has the distinction of being the only nominated revival that is still running, an invaluable asset in any Tony race.  Unfortunately, it also received the least encouraging reviews of the bunch.  While many critics praised the star-studded cast, they found the show itself a tad slow, indicating that for whatever reason the individual performances aren’t adding up to a satisfying whole.  A show perceived as a disappointment, whether due to unreasonably high expectations or actual shortcomings, rarely wins the big awards.

I think Death of a Salesman will easily win Best Revival tonight.  The play is an acknowledged masterpiece, and you couldn’t ask for much better material.  But rather than rest on their laurels, Mike Nichols and his entire team pushed themselves to deliver the most universally praised revival of the year.  The presence of Oscar-winner Phillip Seymour Hoffman made the show a box office bonanza, and the level of buzz surrounding the production was deafening.  Critical acclaim, a towering central performance by an A-list celebrity, and box office success amount to a Tony-winning trifecta, and I would be shocked to see anything other than Salesman win this award.

Will and Should Win:  Death of a Salesman

Best Revival of a Musical

Nominees:  Evita, Follies, Porgy and Bess, Jesus Christ Superstar

The Tonys have often been accused of being too commercially-minded, favoring box office success over artistic merit.  While there is certainly some truth to this (producers of touring houses make up a large percentage of Tony voters, and they want to be able to book Tony-winning shows that will also make them lots of money), the revival categories seem to be less prone to this phenomenon.  That is why I think despite Evita’s enormous financial success, it has very little chance of winning the big prize.  This current revival has been unfavorably compared to memories of the original 1979 production.  Leading lady Elena Roger has proven to be a divisive Eva, and I would agree with the many audience members who feel her voice simply isn’t up to the challenge of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s demanding score.  Despite a visually stunning physical production and top-notch direction by Michael Grandage, this Evita lacks spark, and has been deemed a disappointment by many of the show’s fans.

The other Lloyd Webber revival of the season, Jesus Christ Superstar, is a much stronger contender.  Though Superstar is far inferior to Evita as a piece of musical theatre writing, director Des McAnuff and his team have polished it to a high gloss.  The end result, which wisely emphasizes the pseudo-love triangle between Jesus, Judas, and Mary, is so good that it managed to win me over despite my deep dislike of Lloyd Webber in general and Superstar in particular.  It helps that McAnuff cast leads that are actually capable of handling the insane vocal demands of the score, but Superstar’s low number of overall nominations indicates it will have a tough time winning against its stiff competition.

The real contenders here are Follies and Porgy and Bess, two fantastic shows which have received first rate productions.  The Stephen Sondheim revival boasted an impeccable cast, a sumptuous physical production and excellent direction, and I truly believe that it will be talked about for years to come as a definitive version of that landmark show.  While there is much to love about Porgy, including an astounding central performance by the incomparable Audra McDonald, purists have been vocally upset about director Diane Paulus’ retooling of a four hour opera into a two-and-a-half hour musical.  Even though Porgy is still running (a major advantage for any Tony-nominated production), I expect the ire over Paulus’ judicious cuts to keep it from taking the big prize, which is as it should be.  Follies was a truly transcendent theatrical experience, and deserves to be recognized as the best revival of the season.

Will and Should Win:  Follies

The only races left to predict are the two biggest, Best Play and Best Musical.  Stay tuned for my thoughts on each, and catch up on the rest of my Tony predictions in the meantime:

Best Actor

Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography