2013 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

It’s finally here!  Broadway’s big night is upon us, and I’ve saved the two biggest categories for last.  The Best Play and Best Musical awards not only represent the highest possible achievement in American theatre, but they also guarantee a new work a place in the history books forever more.  Winning either of these awards not only increases the Broadway mounting’s chances of turning a profit, but greatly increases the amount of money a show can make from subsequent tours and regional mountings. 

 

Of course, such a prestigious award always comes with its fair share of controversy.  There are some that feel the Tony Awards have a habit of honoring commercial viability over artistic excellence, and there are plenty of fantastic, enduring works of theatre that went home empty handed on Tony night (Ragtime and West Side Story come to mind).  But the awards still mean something, and more often than not the shows honored are excellent artistic achievements even if they aren’t necessarily the *most* deserving.  So which shows will be the big winners tonight?  Read on to find out.

 

Best Play

Only Christopher Durang would find a way to connect Chekhov and Snow White.  That's gotta be worth some kind of award right there.

 

Nominees:  The Assembled Parties; Lucky Guy; The Testament of Mary; Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

 

An interesting and eclectic assortment of shows, this year’s Best Play race isn’t as chock-full of the high-minded (and oftentimes stuffy) dramas that Tony voters usually fawn over.  The biggest surprise in this category is probably the inclusion of the Fiona Shaw-led The Testament of Mary, a show that posted its closing notice the same day as the announcement.  I can’t imagine it winning, but as they say, it’s an honor just to be nominated.

Heading into the awards season, I thought The Assembled Parties would be a much stronger contender than it’s turned out to be.  Mounted by highly respected Manhattan Theatre Club, the show was roundly praised by critics for its nuanced writing and all-around excellent performances.  But with only three Tony nominations to its name, the show is definitely this year’s dark horse; it *could* win, but the chances of that actually happening are miniscule.

This is really a two-way race between Lucky Guy and Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike.  The final work written by the beloved Nora Ephron before her death, Lucky Guy is one of the biggest commercial successes of the season, and features bona fide movie star Tom Hanks in his Broadway debut.  But for all of the kind words written about Lucky Guy, I get the sense that most people know it is not a great play, and are cutting it some slack due to their nostalgia for its departed author.  Meanwhile, Vanya and Sonia has been racking up the wins in this season’s other awards races, and despite a prolific career playwright Christopher Durang has never actually won a Tony.  I think this is the year that changes, and it will mark the first time an outright comedy has won the Best Play trophy since Lost in Yonkers won back in 1991.

Should Win:  The Assembled Parties

Will Win:  Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

 

Best Musical

Kinky Boots leads this year's Tony nominations and is one of the frontrunners for the big award, because really, how can you go wrong with drag queens?

 

Nominees:  Bring It On: The Musical; A Christmas Story; Kinky Boots; Matilda the Musical

 

I was as surprised as anyone to see Bring It On and A Christmas Story nominated in this category, but it represents the rare instance where my surprise stems from the fact that the nomination committee and I completely agree.  The four nominated shows this year are the season’s four best new musicals, and I applaud the committee for nominating two shows that could have easily been dismissed due to their limited-run nature (a rarity for new musicals).  However, it must also be said that both shows fall into the category of “it’s an honor just to be nominated,” because this is clearly a race between Kinky Boots and Matilda.

Matilda is the quintessential British import; after an acclaimed run in the London, the production has transferred to New York to similarly rapturous reviews, and seems as concerned with impressing the audience through its sheer theatricality as it is with telling a compelling story.  Meanwhile Kinky Boots is a wholly American creation (albeit one based on a British film) whose primary concern is entertaining the audience through song and dance.  The show avoids being complete fluff by having a message about acceptance of yourself and others, although it is a point made by many, many shows before it and hardly registers due to all the glitz and glamor.

These shows are so neck and neck that even industry veterans aren’t sure which way things will go, but my heart is telling me that Kinky Boots will emerge victorious.  The show is extremely easy to like, and while it breaks little new ground the tuner is extremely well-crafted on all fronts.  The emphasis on more accessible nominees in all the categories this year tells me that the Tony voters are in the mood for something a bit more fun, and I honestly think the theatrical community as a whole has overdosed on British theatre in the past few seasons.  I personally found Kinky Boots to be the most compelling and successful of this year’s new musicals, and think its win will be well deserved.  But I also don’t rule out Matilda, and it will be extremely interesting to see how things turn out this evening.

Will & Should Win:  Kinky Boots

 

And that’s a wrap!  We’ve reached the end of another Tony season, and I have again written exhaustively about my thoughts on all things Broadway.  I hope you’ve enjoyed the coverage, and I thank everyone who has been so supportive of my little hobby.  As you wait for the big show later tonight, feel free to look back on all of my other predictions and Tony-related coverage below.

 

Best Revival
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
2013 Tony Nomination React
2013 Tony Roundtable Podcast

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

All of Broadway is brimming with anticipation for the big Tony Award ceremony on Sunday, and here at Broadway, Etc. there are only four more races to predict.  The production awards are perhaps the most prestigious of them all, as they acknowledge the work of everyone involved rather than particular individuals, indicating that the entire work is of the highest artistic merit.  These are the awards that are also most likely to affect a show’s bottom line, with a Best Musical win in particular proven to majorly increase a show’s box office.  Today we’ll be looking at this season’s nominated revivals and predicting which shows will walk away the big winners.

 

Best Revival of a Play

Tracy Letts and Amy Morton in the acclaimed 50th anniversary production of Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

 

Nominees:  Golden Boy, Orphans, The Trip to Bountiful, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

 

To me, the most deserving production in this category is obvious.  The latest Broadway mounting of Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? was not just this season’s best play revival, but the season’s best theatre period.  Under director Pam MacKinnon, the four person cast found an enormous amount of humor and emotional depth in the oft-produced American classic, making it feel as relevant and timely today as it did when it premiered fifty years ago.  Every aspect of the production was of the utmost quality, and despite all of the shows that have opened since it remains one of the most vivid and affecting nights I’ve had on Broadway all year.  Any other show winning would feel like blasphemy.

That said, I felt similarly about last season’s revival of Follies, and it was beaten by the upstart Porgy and Bess (which was admittedly very well-done).  I could envision a similar coup happening with Roundabout’s The Trip to Bountiful, as that well-liked show is the only one of the four nominees still running, and Cicely Tyson’s performance in particular is one of the most buzzed about of the season.  And last fall’s revival of Golden Boy received ecstatic reviews, with nary an unkind word spoken about it during or since.  In fact, the only show I have difficultly making a compelling case for is Orphans, which couldn’t manage to finish out its limited run despite edging out several other high-profile contenders for its slot among this year’s nominees.  But this is one category where I honestly don’t see anyone but the most deserving candidate winning, and so I have to give my vote to Virginia Woolf.

Will & Should Win:  Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Best Revival of a Musical

Chances are they've already engraved the Best Revival of a Musical trophy with Pippin's name, as the show is a shoo-in for the win.

 

Nominees:  Annie; Cinderella; The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Pippin

 

Perhaps the surest bet of the night, this category is clearly Pippin’s to lose, and I honestly can’t see any of the other nominated shows upstaging the circus-themed revival.  For whatever reason, the Tony voters clearly have little love for the James Lapine-helmed Annie, as this category marks the production’s sole nomination.  Its inclusion probably has as much to do with excluding the only other eligible show, the much-maligned Jekyll & Hyde, as it did with honoring the child-friendly revival.  And though delightfully entertaining while it was running, Roundabout’s The Mystery of Edwin Drood has practically faded from memory since it closed in early March.

The only potential fly in the ointment is the revised Cinderella, which despite a myriad of problems managed to secure nine Tony nominations.  How this complete butchering of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s telemovie managed to so greatly impress the nominating committee is beyond me, but I think it has enough detractors to keep it from being a serious threat.  There is also a contingent of voters who rightly question whether the show is a revival at all, as Cinderella has never before played Broadway and the current incarnation is so heavily rewritten that it bears shockingly little resemblance to the show most voters are familiar with.  Barring a major upset, Diane Paulus’ high-flying, spectacle-fueled Pippin will easily and deservedly dance away with this award, as the truly magical night at the theatre is a celebration of all that makes Broadway grand.

Will & Should Win:  Pippin

 

All that’s left to predict are the two biggest Tony races, Best Play and Best Musical.  Check back soon for that post, and tune in Sunday evening to see how well I did when the Tony Awards air live on CBS.  Until then, feel free to click the links below to the rest of my Tony coverage:

 

Best Actor

Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Tony Nomination React
2013 Tony Roundtable Podcast

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

With the Tony Awards only days away, there are only two more acting races for me to predict.  They’re both very competitive categories, but if guessing Tony winners were always easy, then the actual ceremony wouldn’t be any fun!  Keep reading to find out who I think is most likely to win the Best Actor trophies, and who actually deserves them.

 

Best Actor in a Play

The Nance gives two-time Tony-winner Nathan Lane a chance to flex his comedic and dramatic acting muscles, and could end up providing the stage vet with his first non-musical Tony.

 

Nominees:  Tom Hanks, Lucky Guy; Nathan Lane, The Nance; Tracy Letts, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; David Hyde Pierce, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Tom Sturridge, Orphans

A highly competitive category with plenty of deserving contenders, the only person I can’t picture winning here is Tom Sturridge.  Orphans met with lukewarm critical reception and closed in a flash, so the fact that this Broadway neophyte even got nominated is a huge honor.  I’m tempted to place David Hyde Pierce towards the bottom of the pack as well, but he wasn’t even on my radar the year he actually won for Curtains, so I’m wary of underestimating him.  The theatre community is also mighty high on Vanya and Sonia at the moment, which certainly works in the always-exquisite Pierce’s favor.

Personally, I think Tracy Letts’ electrifying performance in Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? is the most deserving of recognition.  Letts completely reinvented one of the great roles of theatrical cannon, turning the typically meek George into a frightening firebrand who dominated this superbly realized revival.  He was simultaneously charming and monstrous, and if Woolf had opened in the spring rather than the fall he would be the clear frontrunner. 

But the Tonys have a habit of rewarding Hollywood stars that prove adept at stage work, and it’s hard to find a bigger name on Broadway than two-time Oscar winner Tom Hanks.  The A-lister has earned plenty of praise for his work in the late Nora Ephron’s Lucky Guy, and the fact that he has turned a play about 1980s newspaper reporters into a genuine box office smash is certain to get voters’ attention.  Yet Nathan Lane received some of the best reviews of his career for The Nance, with many deeming it his strongest stage work since he swept the 2001 awards season for his work in The Producers (a performance which remains one of the great theatrical accomplishments of the new millennium).  Lane is beloved by the industry and surely counts many Tony voters among his friends, and my gut is telling me he may just pull off an upset against Hanks.

Should Win:  Tracy Letts, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Will Win:  Nathan Lane, The Nance

 

Best Actor in a Musical

 

Billy Porter as Lola, flanked by his Angels in the glitzy, gaudy, and terrifically entertaining Kinky Boots

Nominees:  Bertie Carvel, Matilda; Santino Fortana, Cinderella; Rob McClure, Chaplin; Billy Porter, Kinky Boots; Stark Sands, Kinky Boots

The Tony voters and I have repeatedly disagreed about this category in recent years.  Two seasons ago I was gunning hard for Andrew Rannells’ star-making turn in The Book of Mormon to win (the prize went to the admittedly amazing Norbert Leo Butz), and I maintain that Danny Burnstein was *robbed* when the voters overlooked his sensational work in Follies last season.  This year they didn’t even nominate what I thought was one of the most unexpectedly excellent performances of the season – Anthony Warlow’s superbly realized Daddy Warbucks in the much-maligned revival of Annie – and somehow let the merely passable Prince of Santino Fortana into the mix instead, so which way the votes will sing this year is anyone’s guess.

All that said, I do think Fortana is the least likely winner, as he isn’t even the second or third best thing about the current Cinderella “revisal.”  I would also be shocked to see Stark Sands win, because while perfectly charming the young performer is greatly overshadowed by his also-nominated costar Billy Porter.  Rob McClure is an extreme dark horse in the race, but it must be said that his performance as the title character in Chaplin was exceptional and honestly better than the questionable material deserved.  I don’t think it’s McClure’s year, but I also don’t think this is the last time he will be attending the Tonys as a nominee.

Like many of this year’s musical races, this category comes down to Kinky Boots vs. Matilda, and specifically the buzzed about drag performances at the center of those two shows.  Bertie Carvel’s turn as the villainous headmistress Miss Trunchbull in Matilda has all the classic earmarks of Tony bait (British thespian reprising an Olivier-winning role in one of the must-see shows of the spring), elevating the kid-friendly show into something greater.  But it is impossible not to like Billy Porter’s sassy drag queen (is there any other kind?) in Kinky Boots, a campy role that grows beyond its initial archetype over the course of the show’s runtime.  There is a lot of love for Porter among the Broadway community, and he is certainly the anchor of the glitzy new musical.  He has also won most every other award of the season, making him the clear – and deserving – frontrunner here.

Will & Should Win:  Billy Porter, Kinky Boots

 

That’s it for this year’s acting awards; all that’s left to predict are the four production categories.  Look for those articles to be posted later in the week; until then, you can feed your Tony hunger by checking out all my previous posts below:

Best Actress

Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Tony Nomination React
Tony Roundtable Podcast

Podcast Episode 10: Tony Roundtable

It's Tony time, and Jared, Jessica, Jackie, and Christopher get together to predict who will enter theatrical history as a winner on Broadway's biggest night. While we don't have time to predict every category, we will be discussing all eight acting awards as well as the four production races. Will "Kinky Boots" will triumph over "Matilda?" Can Judith Light win her second Tony in as many years? Does any revival have a chance against the behemoth that is "Pippin?" Find out by listening to this fun and lively edition of the Broadway, Etc. podcast!

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

The Tony Awards draw ever nearer, and we have finally worked our way up to the most prestigious performance categories.  The leading actor and actress races are typically home to the type of tour de force performances that become Broadway legend, and winning the Tony against such strong competition is definitive proof that someone has “made it.”  So which actresses will join the ranks of Broadway’s greatest and take home the coveted Best Actress statuettes (and who actually deserves such recognition)?  Keep reading to find out.

Best Actress in a Play

Emmy-winning veteran Cicely Tyson returns to the stage after a three decade absence in Roundabout's acclaimed revival of Horton Foote's The Trip to Bountiful

 

Nominees:  Laurie Metcalf, The Other Place; Amy Morton, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; Kristine Nielsen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Holland Taylor, Ann; Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

 

There are some truly masterful performances nominated in this category, and it’s difficult to argue against any of these women.  Of the five nominees, I’m sad to say Amy Morton has the smallest chance of winning.  While a fascinating Martha in Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?, Morton ended up playing second fiddle to Tracy Letts’ George.  Critics are used to seeing that power dynamic reversed, and underplaying a role has not been the path to Tony glory in the past.  And Holland Taylor’s nomination has more of an air of respectful acknowledgment than passionate support, which means that when push comes to shove she will not be the first (or second or third) actress people vote for.

Kristine Nielsen is an interesting case, as she has won several awards already for her work in Vanya and Sonia.  But every other awards race has deemed Nielsen a supporting actress, and some voters may feel her role is not substantial enough to merit Best Actress.  Which leaves Laurie Metcalf and Cicely Tyson, both of whom received across the board raves for their performances.  In fact, I would say the raves for Metcalf were slightly more ecstatic, but her show closed several months ago while Tyson’s premiered late in the spring season.  And considering that Tyson has already won the Outer Critics and Drama Desk awards for her performance in The Trip to Bountiful, she becomes the clear frontrunner here.  This race is Tyson’s to lose.

Should Win:  Laurie Metcalf, The Other Place

Will Win:  Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

Best Actress in a Musical

 

The charming Laura Osnes has lived her own Cinderella story, going from unknown actress on a TV talent show to a Tony-nominated leading lady.

Nominees:  Stephanie J. Block, The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Carolee Carmello, Scandalous; Valisia LeKae, Motown the Musical; Patina Miller, Pippin; Laura Osnes, Cinderella

 

No disrespect to the nominated women, but this year’s Best Actress in a Musical category is one of the weakest in recent memory, lacking the kind of outsized diva performances that usually make this race so interesting.  On the positive side, whoever wins will be a first time Tony recipient, virtually guaranteeing a tearful and heartfelt acceptance speech.  I really enjoyed Stephanie J. Block in Drood, and the part showcased her various talents with panache, but the borderline supporting role sidelined her for much of the second act.  Drood also closed months ago, although it is still more recent than Carolee Carmello’s turn in the short-lived Scandalous.  And while I’m sure Valisia LeKae is lovely as Diana Ross in Motown the Musical, I just don’t think the show or the actress has enough support behind her to snag one of Broadway’s highest honors.

This is a two horse race between past nominees Laura Osnes and Patina Miller, and I would say they are pretty evenly matched.  Miller is giving the more overtly impressive performance as the Leading Player in Pippin, displaying a surprising affinity for the Fosse-esque choreography and utilizing her trademark powerhouse vocals to great effect.  But many people, myself including, feel like Miller is trying too hard, and her aggressive need to impress the audience is not the most endearing quality.  Meanwhile, Osnes is widely liked within the industry, as evidenced by her ability to get nominated among last year’s much more competitive field for her work in the little seen Bonnie and Clyde.  She is also perfectly cast as the title character in Cinderella, a show Tony voters are clearly high on despite the questionable rewrites by Douglas Carter Beane. 

I think in their hearts, most Tony voters want to see Osnes win this award, which would be the ultimate validation for someone who initially rose to fame on a reality TV show.  But Miller’s performance is mighty impressive, and I suspect she would have won two years ago if it had not been for Sutton Foster’s fantastic turn in Anything Goes.  This race is almost too close to call, but my gut is telling me to give Osnes the edge.

Should Win:  Patina Mille, Pippin

Will Win:  Laura Osnes, Cinderella

 

Check back soon to see my predictions for the Best Actor races, followed by the production awards.  In the meantime, catch up with all of my previous Tony coverage here:

 

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Choreography and Direction
Tony Nomination React

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are only two weeks away, and I have a lot more predictions to make.  So without further ado, here are my picks for who will win the Best Featured Actor statuettes (along with my personal opinions as to who actually deserves them).

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Tony Shalhoub (right) in Lincoln Center Theatre's revival of Clifford Odets' Golden Boy

Nominees:  Danny Burnstein, Golden Boy; Richard Kind, The Big Knife; Billy Magnussen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Tony Shalhoub, Golden Boy; Courtney B. Vance, Lucky Guy

These predictions are brought to you by 100% Guesswork, as I have not seen any of the nominated performances.  That said I’m going to rule out Vanya and Sonia’s Billy Magnussen, given the Tonys’ habit of overlooking entirely comedic performances.  Magnussen’s Spike is reportedly dumb as a brick, and while actors can appreciate just how difficult playing a compelling idiot is, the rest of the Tony voters will likely underestimate the amount of work going into his performance when compared to the more overtly dramatic nature of his competitors. 

After years of work in regional productions and as a replacement in high profile Broadway comedies, Richard Kind is being recognized for his more serious work in The Big Knife, but given that he is the show’s sole nominee I doubt it culminates in an actual win.  And while the Tony committee is certainly high on Nora Ephron’s final play, the fact that Lucky Guy is raking in the dough is unlikely to propel Courtney B. Vance to the Tony podium.  The amount of praise directed at Lucky Guy has certainly dimmed in the two months since its opening, and while the play is well-liked I think the majority of voters no longer feel it is award-worthy.

That leaves us with a two way race between the rapturously reviewed Golden Boy’s Danny Burnstein and Tony Shalhoub.  Burnstein is an incredible actor who commands a lot of admiration among his peers, but despite three prior nominations the dependable character actor has thus far failed to actually win a Tony.  You could argue the committee owes him one after overlooking his revelatory work as Buddy in last season’s Follies, but that injustice is actually what leads me to bet on Shalhoub taking home the big prize.  If Burnstein couldn’t win for Follies, the chances of him beating out a three-time Emmy winner are slim, and by all accounts Shalhoub so completely disappeared into his role as the protagonist’s father that begrudging him a win seems petty.

Should Win:  Danny Burnstein, Golden Boy (because at this point, he’s earned it)

Will Win:  Tony Shalhoub, Golden Boy

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Terrance Mann and his real-life wife, Charlotte d'Amboise, hamming it up as the conniving parents of Pippin's title character.

Nominees:  Charl Brown, Motown the Musical; Keith Carradine, Hands on a Hardbody; Will Chase, The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Gabriel Ebert, Matilda the Musical; Terrance Mann, Pippin

I’m a little more familiar with the nominated work in this category, but that doesn’t necessarily make predicting things any easier.  Since Motown the Musical couldn’t leverage its massive box office into a Best Musical nomination despite the Tonys’ well-document favoritism of commercially viable shows, I don’t think Charl Brown has much of a chance.  This is not to imply Brown is bad; it’s merely a reflection of the fact that if you’re in a show people don’t like, winning awards is an uphill battle no matter how good the work.  Both Keith Carradine and Will Chase did fine work in their respective shows, but neither performance screamed Tony-worthy, and the fact that both productions are now closed is a major obstacle to their winning.

I believe the frontrunners for this prize are Gabriel Ebert and Terrance Mann, who have the advantage of appearing in two of the most critically lauded musicals of the season.  While I have not personally seen Ebert’s work in Matilda (the damn show is sold out for the foreseeable future), I’m sure the role of Matilda’s father provides the actor with plenty of scenery-chewing opportunities.  But as I mentioned with Lauren Ward in my Featured Actress predictions, for whatever reason the cast of Matilda seldom gets mentioned as a driving factor behind the show’s success, which may put Ebert at a disadvantage.  Terrance Mann is doing pitch-perfect work in Pippin, managing to stand out among the enormous amount of spectacle and talent onstage at the Music Box Theatre.  In addition, Mann’s long and respected career on Broadway has yet to net the veteran actor a Tony Award, something which may sway undecided voters in Mann’s favor.  And Pippin itself has been doing quite well in the various theatrical award races, which can only increase Mann’s chances; in fact, I think it pushes him over the top.

Will and Should Win:  Terrance Mann, Pippin

There are only eight of the Big 12 categories left to predict (Best Actor/Actress and the production awards), so check back soon for more insight into how I expect those races to shape up.  Until then, you can catch up on all of my previous predictions by clicking the links below:

Best Featured Actress

Best Book and Score

Best Choreography and Direction

2013 Tony Nominations React

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

As the clock steadily ticks down to Tony Sunday, it’s time to begin predicting the winners of what I’ve dubbed the Big 12 Tony races (which includes the eight acting awards, best revivals, and best new productions).  I’ll be starting my analysis with the featured categories before working my way up towards the more prestigious awards, and if there are any major discrepancies between who I think is the most likely to win and who is the most deserving, I’ll be sure to point them out. 

Since any gentleman knows it’s ladies first, I’ll be starting with the Best Featured Actress categories, which I actually find to be some of the hardest categories to predict.  These races are where wildcard nominees are most likely to appear, with voters alternating between rewarding exciting new talent and re-honoring theatrical veterans.  Guessing which way the winds will blow in a given year can be as much luck as anything else, but I will bravely soldier on and do my best to make sense of it.  So without further ado, here are my picks for this year’s best supporting players.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Condola Rashad (right) is two for two when it comes to Tony nominations; she's been nominated for each of her Broadway roles.  Can she win this year?

 

Nominees:  Carrie Coon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; Shalita Grant, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Judith Ivey, The Heiress; Judith Light, The Assembled Parties; Condola Rashad, The Trip to Bountiful

 

In some ways this race is anyone’s game, but I think the least likely winner among the five nominees is Judith Ivey.  All but forgotten by the New York press, The Heiress hasn’t been very competitive when it comes to nominations or wins this awards season, and with two career wins to Ivey’s name I think the voters will choose to spread the love.  Carrie Coon was absolutely brilliant in Virginia Woolf, but her role is the smallest in the four character play, and with her flashier costars curiously overlooked by other awards bodies I can’t imagine she stands much of a chance.  Shalita Grant could be a dark horse candidate, as Vanya and Sonia has proven to be a surprisingly strong contender this season and the show’s most honored star, Kristine Nielsen, is competing in another category.

But ultimately, I think the most likely winners are the two women who found themselves in this same spot last year.  After a three decade absence from the New York stage, Judith Light returned in 2010 and has been Tony nominated three seasons running.  It is impossible to overstate the amount of love the community has for last year’s winner, and it is not outrageous to imagine Light becoming a consecutive Tony winner.  Aside from having just won this award, Light’s biggest stumbling block is that fact that Tony voters don’t appear as enamored with The Assembled Parties as the critics were.  The Trip to Bountiful’s Condola Rashad has obviously inherited her mother Phylicia’s talent, and voters who balk at honoring Light two years in a row will almost certainly vote for the young starlet.  In fact, I’m going to make the bold prediction that Rashad will win this year, although only a fool would count Light out completely.

 

Will & Should Win:  Condola Rashad, The Trip to Bountiful

 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Andrea Martin in the outstanding revival of Pippin.  It's been 20 years since she won her first Tony; will this year bring her Tony #2?

 

Nominees:  Annaleigh Ashford, Kinky Boots; Victoria Clark, Cinderella; Andrea Martin, Pippin; Keala Settle, Hand on a Hardbody; Lauren Ward, Matilda the Musical

This category is a nice mixture of industry heavyweights and Tony newcomers, with every nominated performance I’ve seen culminating in a genuine showstopper.  Despite her rafter shaking vocals and unexpected dramatic heft, Keala Settle is the underdog here as Hands on a Hardbody is the only nominated show not currently running.  And for all of the good things said about Matilda, the production itself has been more praised than the individual performances, which hurts Lauren Ward’s chances considerably.

I would honestly be happy to see any of the three remaining women take home the trophy.  Victoria Clark has been handed some questionable material in the rewrite of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s Cinderella, but her second act ballad “There’s Music in You” is one of the most gloriously sung and acted pieces of music currently on Broadway.  I think the general disdain for Cinderella will hold Clark back, but there’s no denying the power of her performance.  Annaleigh Ashford is finally enjoying her moment in the sun after years of hilarious supporting turns in under seen or underappreciated musicals, and her solo “The History of Wrong Guys” is a simultaneous send-up and love letter to 80s rock anthems.  In a lesser actress’ hands the part would likely fall flat, and a Tony win would provide the perfect feather in Ashford’s professional cap.  But Andrea Martin’s work in Pippin is nothing short of magical, and in its utter simplicity her “No Time at All” manages to trump the topnotch revival’s overwhelming amount of visual spectacle.  Only a complete killjoy would begrudge Martin her likely Tony win, and it couldn’t happen to a nicer broad. 

Should Win:  Annaleigh Ashford, Kinky Boots

Will Win:  Andrea Martin, Pippin

 

Check back soon for my predictions in the Best Featured Actor categories, and until then you can catch up on the rest of my Tony ramblings for this season.

 

Best Book and Score

Best Choreography and Direction
2013 Tony Nominations React

2013 Tony Perdictions: Best Book and Score

It’s the middle of awards season here in NYC, and the name on everybody’s lips is “Tony.”  Last time I predicted who would win the coveted statuette in the Choreography and Direction categories; today, I pick who will and should win the awards for Best Book and Score.  At this point I should mention that I have still not seen Matilda, which is obviously one of the major competitors in these races, so there will be some speculation and possible bias going on here.  I reserve the right to change my predictions after seeing the show, and if I do, look for an updated entry at a later date.  But if I don’t start on these articles now I’ll never finish before June 9^th, so let’s get down to business!

Best Book of a Musical

The team behind Matilda must have spent weeks taking courses on how to best impress the American press, because the critics certainly *adored* it.

 

Nominees:  Joseph Robinette, A Christmas Story; Harvey Fierstein, Kinky Boots; Dennis Kelly, Matilda the Musical; Douglas Carter Beane, Cinderella

 

In case you’re new to this blog, I want to make it very clear that I despise Douglas Carter Beane’s libretto work, and think Cinderella is the most offensively awful writing he’s done to date.  Not only is his post-modern snark in complete opposition to the overwhelming earnestness of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s score, but Beane fails to make his additions funny or compelling in their own right. His attempt to develop characters beyond their fairytale archetypes falls flat, leading to personality inconsistencies and confused motivations that the talented cast struggles to make sense of.  And the less said about his entry-level lecture on the wonders of democratic rule the better.  A three time Tony nominee, Beane clearly has his fans among the Tony voters, but there are an equal number who thought this Cinderella was a train wreck of epic proportions, and I can’t imagine him winning this category.

Joseph Robinette’s adaptation of A Christmas Story was serviceable but nothing special, and the long-closed show will have major difficulty competing with its still running rivals.  Harvey Fierstein is one of the most consistently excellent librettists in the industry, and his work on Kinky Boots once again demonstrates his uncanny ability to couple witty one-liners with genuine heart and solid story structure, creating honest if exaggerated characters that propel the narrative forward at an effervescent pace.  I imagine that Dennis Kelly’s book for Matilda is equally solid, as the Brits have a knack for strong story structure thanks to their familiarity with the classics of dramatic literature.  I am cheering for Fierstein, but I think this is one category where Matilda has the edge.

 

Should Win:  Harvey Fierstein, Kinky Boots

Will Win:  Dennis Kelly, Matilda the Musical

 

Best Score

Whatever Lola wants, Lola gets.  And Lola wants a Tony for Kinky Boots

 

Nominees:  Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, A Christmas Story; Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green, Hands on a Hardbody; Cyndi Lauper, Kinky Boot; Tim Minchin, Matilda the Musical

 

Kudos to Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green for getting recognition for the underrated Hands on a Hardbody, but this is a case where the nomination is the win, as I can’t imagine a scenario where the pair beats their higher profile competition.  With twelve total nominations and lots of critical love, Tim Minchin is certainly a contender for his work on Matilda, although from a merit-based perspective I think this is one of the British import’s weaker categories.  The score is rarely the strongest element of any British musical, and I think a win for Minchin would likely be viewed as an upset.

I’m torn about who I want to win among the remaining two nominees.  I certainly liked Cyndi Lauper’s score for Kicky Boots, which managed to fuse her distinct pop sensibility with more traditional musical theatre idioms.  She is also the biggest name in this category, and the Tony voters have a habit of rewarding celebrities from other mediums who make credible Broadway debuts.  But in the grand scheme of things, Lauper is unlikely to write another musical anytime soon, if at all, whereas University of Michigan graduates Benj Pasek and Justin Paul would most likely dedicate their lives to writing excellent shows.  Not only is A Christmas Story the most inventive and exciting score of the season (at least in my opinion), but Pasek and Paul are the most promising songwriting team to emerge in years.  I wholeheartedly believe that they could become the next Kander and Ebb or Ahrens and Flaherty, and a Tony win would give them the clout to get future projects off the ground and into production.  Broadway needs to do more to nurture the next generation of musical theatre songwriters or eventually we’ll be left with nothing but revivals and jukebox musicals, and a win for the young duo would definitely be a step in the right direction.  The smart money is on Lauper, but I’m really hoping Pasek and Paul manage to pull an Avenue Q-level upset. 

 

Should Win:  Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, A Christmas Story

Will Win:  Cyndi Lauper, Kinky Boots

 

That’s all for now.  The supporting acting categories are up next, and don’t forget to check out the previous articles in my Tony Predictions series:

 

Best Choreography and Direction

2013 Tony Nomination React

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Choreography and Direction

Now that the 2013 Tony nominations have been announced and we’ve all had time to process who’s in the running for Broadway’s biggest honor, it’s time to get down to my favorite part of the awards season: wild speculation about the eventual winners!  Okay, maybe not “wild,” as I really do try to have an informed opinion about these things, but the simple truth of the matter is I can’t see every nominated show and sometimes have to base my predictions on media buzz and second-hand info. 

Like last year, I’ll be writing a series of articles giving detailed analysis of the major Tony races, along with predictions of who will win in each category.  And if I think another nominee is more deserving than the probable winner, I’ll be sure to point that out too.  Unlike last year, you can also look forward to a roundtable podcast discussion in early June where the entire panel will chime in on who they think will win each of the Big 12 (production and acting) categories.  And with all of that said, let’s look at the nominees for Best Choreography and Best Direction!

Best Chorography

Billy Porter and the cast of the high kicking musical Kinky Boots

Nominees:  Andy Blankenbuehler, Bring It On; Peter Darling, Matilda the Musical; Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots; Chet Walker, Pippin

This year saw Broadway choreography move away from dance in the traditional sense, which makes predicting the winner in this category more difficult than usual.  Andy Blankenbuehler’s cheerleading routines for Bring It On were easily the musical’s highlight, but the fact that the show closed months ago combined with the lack of traditional dance moves will probably keep him out of serious contention.  And while Pippin features the most visually arresting musical numbers of the Broadway season, my gut tells me that Tony voters credit Diane Paulus and Gypsy Snider for its success more than choreographer Chet Walker.

Like many races this season, the category will probably come down to Kinky Boots and Matilda.  Boots is hardly Jerry Mitchell’s best work from a purely choreographic standpoint, but voters may feel like the well-respected director/choreographer is long overdue for a second Tony Award; despite six career nominations in this category, he’s only won once.  A win for Mitchell also allows the voters to recognize his contributions to this season’s most nominated musical while freeing up the Best Director statuette for someone else.  Although Matilda’s Peter Darling has won this award before, my gut tells me that despite his show’s rapturous critical reception Kinky Boots is going to be the big winner on Tony Sunday, including in this category.

Should Win:  Andy Blankenbuehler, Bring It On

Will Win:  Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots

 

Best Direction of a Play

Pam MacKinnon's knockout production of the classic Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Nominees:  Pam MacKinnon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; Nicholas Martin, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Bartlett Sher, Golden Boy; George C. Wolfe, Lucky Guy

 

With the exception of Vanya and Sonia’s Nicholas Martin, every member of this category is a repeat nominee.  I think that kind of pedigree will keep Martin out of serious contention, especially given the Tony voters’ bias against comedic plays.  And while Lucky Guy is one of the biggest financial successes of the spring, I’m sensing that the theatrical community at large is starting to feel that their nostalgia for the late Nora Ephron led to a decent play being praised more than it actually merits, which will hurt George C. Wolfe’s chances.

Both Bartlett Sher and Pam MacKinnon managed to pull of the deceptively hard task to making old plays feel fresh without betraying their original intent or layering on a directorial concept that seems inorganic and contrived.  The critical hosannas that greeted both plays were deafening, and in this case I think the Tony voters will opt to recognize MacKinnon over Sher.  Virginia Woolf is a play that industry folks have studied and seen produced countless times; the fact that MacKinnon managed to find something fresh in this oft-produced work, coupled with her ability to coax four absolutely incredible performances out of her actors, practically demands she receive Broadway’s highest honor.

Will & Should Win:  Pam MacKinnon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

 

Best Direction of a Musical

With Pippin, director Diane Paulus has managed to top her own lofty standards.

 

Nominees:  Scott Ellis, The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots; Diane Paulus, Pippin; Matthew Warcus, Matilda

 

I won’t mince words here:  a win by anyone other than Diane Paulus would be criminal here.  More than any other nominee, Paulus has put such a distinctive stamp on her show that separating the two is nigh-impossible.  She is simply one of the best directors working today, able to apply exciting new concepts to shows most would have written off as hopelessly dated without violating the spirit and artistic vision of the original.  Her Pippin is magical, thanks largely to her insistence on the addition of the circus elements and razor sharp direction that goes a long way towards disguising the show’s narrative flaws.  Factor in the fact that she was also responsible for the Tony-winning Hair and Porgy and Bess, and Paulus is long overdue for some Tony love.

Thankfully, I don’t think any of the other directors really have a chance of dethroning her.  Scott Ellis performed the neat trick of taking a terrible show and making it eminently entertaining, but as the only show not currently running his Drood is at a distinct disadvantage.  And despite several Broadway outings as director, Jerry Mitchell is still viewed primarily as a choreographer and is unlikely to score an upset.  Tony voters’ affection for Matilda’s Matthew Warcus has cooled considerably from its heyday several seasons ago, and while he is Paulus’ biggest competition I just can’t imagine him overthrowing the reigning Queen of the Broadway Musical.

Will & Should Win:  Diane Paulus, Pippin

 

That’s all for now.  Check back soon for my picks for Best Book and Score!