2018 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

The 2018 Tony Awards are just over a week away, and we are continuing full speed ahead with our annual Tony predictions. Today we finish up the acting races with the Leading Actresses, breaking down who will win and pointing out who deserves to win while we're at it. Read on below!

Best Actress in a Play

Glenda Jackson as A in Three Tall Women.

Nominees: Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women; Condola Rashad, Saint Joan; Lauren Ridloff, Children of a Lesser God; Amy Schumer, Meteor Shower

This is the easiest Tony category to predict; in fact, I'll go so far as to call it a lock. Glenda Jackson has already won multiple awards for her leading turn in Three Tall Women, including the hyper competitive Distinguished Performance Award from the Drama League, which is only awarded to one performer per year and can only be won once in a performer's lifetime.

As if that wasn't enough of an advantage, Jackson also faces less competition than normal with only three other nominees, none of whom have inspired much fervor among Tony voters. Amy Schumer is a somewhat surprising nominee from the long-shuttered Meteor Shower, and I don't know anyone who expects her to win. Meanwhile, Condola Rashad looks set to continue her streak as a perpetual Tony bridesmaid, with Saint Joan barely limping through its limited run with half-empty houses and zero buzz, either positive or negative. And while I'm sure Tony voters will love the story of Children of a Lesser God's Lauren Ridloff - a first time actress who was brought in as a consultant on Deaf culture and won the role of Sarah after being asked to play it during a reading - the show's early closing certainly hasn't helped her chances. If anyone can unseat Jackson it's probably Ridloff, but that seems about as likely as Hamilton closing anything this decade.

Will Win: Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women
Should Win: Abstain

Best Actress in a Musical

Katrina Lenk as Dina in The Band's Visit.

Nominees: Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady; Hailey Kilgore, Once On This Island; LaChanze, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical; Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit; Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls; Jessie Mueller, Carousel

As with Best Featured Actress in a Musical, there are some bizarre choices and omissions here. How Tony voters overlooked Patti Murin's luminous, star-making turn as Princess Anna in Frozen is beyond me, as I would rank her work above several of the nominated actresses without hesitation. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Jessie Mueller's inclusion for Carousel feels like a force of habit nomination more than something the Tony-winning actress earned. The Rodgers and Hamemrstein revival is far from Mueller's best work, not helped by the fact she is saddled with a problematic "leading" role which has failed to result in even a Tony nomination for those who've played it before her. It's also a bit of a stretch to argue that Taylor Louderman's take on Regina George in Mean Girls belongs in the leading category, although its harder to begrudge the first time Tony nominee her time in the spotlight.

That leaves us with four viable candidates to actually win, and I think we can safely rule out LaChanze's diva-riffic performance in Summer. I'm sure the previous Tony-winner is doing great work as late disco star Donna Summer, but the musical is so reviled by critics a win for her seems borderline impossible. I think both Hailey Kilgore and Once On This Island in general have ardent supporters among the community, but for whatever reason that show hasn't quite ignited Tony voters the way I thought it would (and should). My best guess as to why is the show opened just *slightly* too early in the season, and voters have been distracted by the newer productions that have premiered since then.

The Band's Visit actually opened prior to Island, but the difference here is that many people consider it the frontrunner for Best Musical, and so it is continually on people's minds. Katrina Lenk is quite bewitching as Dina, the sole female presence of any consequence in the show and the closest thing the ensemble piece has to a lead. If more of Visit lived up to her performance of the haunting ballad "Omar Sharif" I would probably like it a lot more than I currently do, but I still find her hobbled by the piece's frustratingly restrained, understated tone that is subtle to the point of being nonexistent.

Meanwhile Lauren Ambrose is giving the most fully realized musical characterization of the season in My Fair Lady at the Vivan Beaumont Theatre. Her Eliza is also heavily reliant on subtext and acting between the lines, but Ambrose manages an emotional accessibility Lenk lacks without sacrificing the latter's nuance. The only real criticism I have of Ambrose's performance is that while her sweet soprano can sound a bit small in that cavernous theatre, and you have definitely heard the role of Eliza sung better. What you likely *haven't* seen is a better acted version, and her singing is strong enough that you can forgive those times her voice is merely good instead of great.

As far as I'm concerned, Ambrose has more than earned this award. She may well win it, as demonstrated by her victory at the Outer Critics' Circle Awards over largely the same field of competitors. But the objective part of me suspects that Tony voters will go with Lenk due to their love for Band's Visit (and residual love for last season's Indecent, also starring Lenk).

Will Win: Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit
Should Win: Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady
Should Have Been Nominated: Patti Murin, Frozen



Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Book and Score
Direction and Choreography
Featured Actor
Featured Actress
Actor

2017 Tony Award Predictions: Best Actress

The march towards the 2017 Tony Awards continues, and so do my annual predictions! As always, I will be using a combination of personal opinion, critical consensus, and industry buzz to determine the most likely winners, which don't necessarily line up with the most deserving winners. Should the two diverge, I will make sure to point that out in my analysis.

Now that we've tackled the Lead Actors, let's move on to Broadway's leading ladies!

Best Actress in a Play

Laura Linney and Darren Goldstein in Manhattan Theatre Club's production of The Little Foxes.

Nominees: Cate Blanchett, The Present; Jennifer Ehle, Oslo; Sally Field, The Glass Menagerie; Laura Linney, The Little Foxes; Laurie Metcalf, A Doll's House, Part 2

Both Cate Blanchett and Sally Field are the recipients of not one but two Academy Awards each, which will surely ease the sting of not winning the Best Actress in a Play Tony this year. Blanchett's work in The Present was phenomenal, but the play itself proved off-putting to a large segment of the theatre community; combine that with the fact it closed several months ago and Blanchett is an extreme long shot. Sally Field's work in The Glass Menagerie is much more recent, but Sam Gold's divisive, stripped down approach to the Tennessee Williams classic did her no favors, handicapping Field to the point where I can't imagine her winning.

Jennifer Ehle doesn't often perform on Broadway, but when she does she has an excellent Tony track record. Prior to Oslo, Ehle had just three Broadway credits to her name, and two Tony wins to go with them, so counting her out of the race would be foolish. But her remaining two competitors, The Little Foxes' Laura Linney and A Doll's House, Part 2's Laurie Metcalf, are both overdue for Tony glory, as despite multiple nominations neither has ever won. Linney's recent win at the Drama Desk Awards along with the higher level of buzz for Manhattan Theatre Club's starry revival give her the edge, and I expect her name to be called on Sunday night. But one cannot rule out Metcalf, especially considering the high level of love the Tony nominators showed for A Doll's House, Part 2.

Will and Should Win: Laura Linney, The Little Foxes

Best Actress in a Musical

Bette Midler in the title role of Hello, Dolly!

Nominees: Denee Benton, Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812; Christine Ebersole, War Paint; Patti LuPone, War Paint; Bette Midler, Hello, Dolly!; Eva Noblezada, Miss Saigon

Let us stop and take a moment to appreciate the embarrassment of riches that is this year's Best Actress in a Musical category. This season brought us two-time Tony-winners Patti LuPone and Christine Ebersole at the top of their respective games, and yet both seem like long shots to win the award! Either performance would be worth the price of admission to War Paint; the fact that you get both makes it true must see theatre for any musical aficionado, a thrilling night of two titans doing what they do best.  Newcomer Eva Noblezada is also sensational in Miss Saigon, a worthy successor to Lea Salonga in the role of Kim and someone I hope we will be seeing much more of in the coming years. (I am less enthralled with The Great Comet's Denee Benton, but am glad to see Broadway continuing to embrace diverse casting options.)

However, this award is destined to go to Bette Midler, whose performance in Hello, Dolly! is truly one for the record books. I have seen quite of bit of theatre in my eight years living in New York, including industry stalwarts like Audra McDonald, Kelli O'Hara, Sutton Foster, Bernadette Peters, and the aforementioned LuPone and Ebersole. And I have *never* seen a star turn quite like Midler's, who exceeds any and all expectations you might have for her to deliver a transcendent, triumphant Dolly Levi that feels every bit as definitive as Carol Channing's. There is no learning the kind of star quality Midler has - you're either born with it, or you aren't - but it is coupled with a supreme talent and precise deployment of her many skills that appears effortless. It may be 50 years since her last Broadway musical (as a replacement in the original production of Fiddler on the Roof), but it was worth the wait, and will be rightly rewarded with every Best Actress award around, including the Tony.

Will and Should Win: Bette Midler, Hello, Dolly!
Special Mention: Glenn Close in Sunset Boulevard, who is ineligible for this year's Tonys (having already won for the same role) but is giving a whole new generation the chance to see her breathtaking Norma Desmond

Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments, and keep checking back throughout the week for more Tony coverage from Broadway, Etc. You can catch up on anything you may have missed below:

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor

2017 Tony Nomination Predictions: Part II

With the industry anxiously awaiting the announcement of this year's Tony nominees on Tuesday, it is once again time for me to put on my prognosticator's hat and predict who will be among the lucky crop of nominees. I've already weighed in on the production categories, so now it's time to look at individual performances.

As always, these predictions represent my best synthesis of personal opinion, critical acclaim, and Tony trends. There is always the possibility an extremely close vote could cause certain categories to expand beyond the traditional 5 nominees, and although I don't expect that to happen I will still be picking a Wildcard performer in each race. The Wildcard is the person I think the most likely to force a category expansion, or unseat one of my official picks. Now on with the show!

Best Actor in a Musical

Ben Platt as the title character in Dear Evan Hansen.

Unlike the wide open production races, there is a definite front runner in this race, and his name is Ben Platt. Best Actor in a Musical has been Platt's award to lose ever since Dear Evan Hansen burst onto the scene last fall, and the young actor deserves every bit of praise he has received. His performance as the awkward, depressed title character is revelatory, a perfect mixture of comedy and pathos that is gorgeously sung and heartrendingly acted.

The only person who offers any kind of threat to Platt is Groundhog Day's Andy Karl, fresh off an Olivier Award win for the same role and much in the news of late due to an unfortunate onstage injury. Karl is quite good as the acerbic Phil Connors, his innate likability helping get the audience on Phil's side long before the events of the show turn him into a decent human being. The performance isn't quite in the same league as Platt's (no leading man is this year), but it is more than enough to ensure the beloved Broadway stalwart a nomination.

The performers rounding out this category aren't as obvious, but I'm reasonably confident Josh Groban will find himself Tony-nominated for his Broadway debut in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812. I also think Jon Jon Briones will be nominated for his seductively charismatic work as Miss Saigon's Engineer; if a whitewashing controversy couldn't stop original Engineer Jonathan Pryce from winning a Tony, having an equally good and ethnically appropriate actor has to be good for at least a nomination. And as much as I personally dislike Christian Borle's acting, the two-time Tony-winner will probably be nominated for one of his two qualifying roles this year, hopefully the more subdued and less hammy Falsettos. 

As for dark horses, I would keep my eye on A Bronx Tale's Nick Cordero, a previous nominee for his work in the short lived Bullets Over Broadway, and one should never rule out David Hyde Pierce, who is playing opposite Bette Midler in one of the buzziest shows of the season. (Remember, Jake Gyllenhaal is not eligible as the producers of Sunday in the Park with George withdrew the show from Tony consideration.)

Nominees: Christian Borle, Falsettos; Jon Jon Briones, Miss Saigon; Josh Groban, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812; Andy Karl, Groundhog Day; Ben Platt, Dear Evan Hansen
Wildcard: Nick Cordero, A Bronx Tale

Best Actor in a Play

Kevin Kline in Present Laughter.

This category is almost completely wide open, as no play's leading actor has broken out in the way that nets you awards consideration. The one exception is Kevin Kline, who is a lock for his expert comedic skills in the latest revival of Present Laughter. The question is who will join him.

Significant Other provided quite the meaty role for Gideon Glick as a gay millennial struggling with existential angst as he loses his best friends to their romantic partners. Despite the play's premature closing, I suspect Glick will be remembered by the nominating committee. I also have to imagine that Academy Award-nominee Mark Ruffalo will be nominated for his work in Roundabout Theatre Company's well-liked revival of Arthur Miller's The Price. And while some found The Present off-putting, its leading man Richard Roxburgh did fine work in a very tricky part.

Rounding out the category is most likely Denis Arndt, the septuagenarian actor who made his Broadway debut this past fall opposite Mary-Louise Parker in Heisenberg. But at the same time, I have to believe past Tony-winner Jefferson Mays is at least in contention for his work in Oslo, although that show has struggled to build much awards momentum despite a clutch of positive reviews. And a nomination for Simon McBurney would be a way for Tony voters to recognize the actor/director/writer for his unique (and well reviewed) solo show The Encounter without having to nominate the play itself.

Nominees: Denis Arndt, Heisenberge; Gideon Glick, Significant Other; Kevin Kline, Present Laughter; Richard Roxburgh, The Present; Mark Ruffalo, The Price
Wildcard: Simon McBurney, The Encounter

Best Actress in a Musical

Bette Midler as the title character in Hello, Dolly!

Yet again, this season brought us some sensational leading lady performances in an eclectic array of musicals. The name currently on everyone's lips is Bette Midler for headlining the smash hit revival of Hello, Dolly! Composer Jerry Herman reportedly turned down multiple offers to revive the show due to his dissatisfaction with the actresses under consideration for the title role, but was instantly sold when the Divine Miss M was mentioned. As Midler's sensational star turn has been greeted with ecstatic reviews, including a rave in The New York Times the likes of which head critic Ben Brantley rarely gives, it appears Herman's instincts were correct. Midler is a guaranteed nominee and probable winner, although she does face some stiff competition.

While War Paint's chances of being nominated in the production and writing categories are shaky, there's absolutely no way Patti LuPone and Christine Ebersole miss out on Best Actress nods. Excluding either would be the very definition of a snub. And Anastasia's leading lady Christy Altomare has received both an Outer Critic's Circle and Drama Desk nomination this week, making it extremely likely that Tony voters will follow suit. And while she has failed to make an appearance among the nominees in any of the guild awards, I really have trouble imagining Miss Saigon's extraordinary Eva Noblezada being left out on Tony Tuesday.

Luckily for all of the above performers, Glenn Close is not eligible for a Tony this year, as she already won one for her absolutely transcendent Norma Desmond in Sunset Boulevard when the show originally premiered. And Stephanie J. Block (Falsettos), Rachel Bay Jones (Dear Evan Hansen), and Jennifer Laura Thompson (Dear Evan Hansen) have all been deemed supporting actresses, so look for them to make an appearance in that category. If anyone is going to unseat one of the above performers, it's going to be two-time nominee Laura Osnes for the late season entry Bandstand.

Nominees: Christy Altomare, Anastasia; Christine Ebersole, War Paint; Patti LuPone, War Paint; Bette Midler, Hello, Dolly!; Eva Noblezada, Miss Saigon
Wildcard: Laura Osnes, Bandstand

Best Actress in a Play

Laura Linney (left) and Cynthia Nixon in The Little Foxes.

This category is the most exciting it's been in years, thanks to a welcome increase in female fronted plays. The always excellent Allison Janney seems like a shoe-in for her work in Six Degrees of Separation. Similarly, it appears A Doll's House: Part 2 will give Tony favorite Laurie Metcalf another chance to win the elusive statuette, even as it struggles to catch on at the box office. And let's not forget Heisenberg's Mary-Louise Parker, who scored across the board raves for her complex portrayal of a possibly unstable woman in Simon Stephens' two-hander.

After that, the rest of the nominations could go several ways. Laura Linney has received both Drama Desk and Outer Critic's Circle nods for her dual roles in Manhattan Theatre Club's The Little Foxes, which makes a Tony nod feel almost inevitable (her costar Cynthia Nixon, who alternates in the same roles as Linney, has oddly been ruled a supporting actress). Cate Blanchett and Sally Field are also in the mix, as even though their respective vehicles The Present and The Glass Menagerie proved to be divisive productions, both actresses scored strong reviews for their individual contributions. While Field did well with the guilds, I actually think Blanchett has the better chance at a Tony nod, as she is not competing against the memory of a very recent, well loved production of the same play the way Field is.

Nominees: Cate Blanchett, The Present; Allison Janney, Six Degrees of Separation; Laura Linney, The Little Foxes; Laurie Metcalf, A Doll's House: Part 2; Mary-Louise Parker, Heisenberg
Wildcard: Sally Field, The Glass Menagerie


And there you have my 2017 Tony nominee predictions. Due to a lack of time and overwhelming number of options I will not be predicting the supporting actor and actress nominees this year, but will predict the winners once we know who the contenders are. Until Tuesday, feel free to leave any thoughts you might have in the comments, and check back once the nominees are announced to find out my thoughts!

Extremely Early 2017 Tony Predictions: Part II

As January turns to February, we are experiencing the proverbial calm before the storm. The spring Broadway season swings into gear next month, before the floodgates truly open in March and April. There are a mind boggling 22 productions slated to open between now and the Tony eligibility cutoff date, featuring a proliferation of both known and up and coming talent which makes my yearly tradition of assessing which fall performers are well-positioned for Tony recognition that much harder.

As history has repeatedly shown, the Tony Awards tend to favor currently running and recently premiered productions (hence the glut of scheduled spring openings). While a decent performance in a well-reviewed spring show can be enough to snag a nomination, actors must truly impress critics and Tony voters if they hope to be remembered for their work in a fall show. On the other hand, should the spring shows prove disappointing, a solid performance in a fondly remembered fall production suddenly looks very strong by comparison. It's all a carefully weighted guessing game, so read on of my extremely early - and subject to change - predictions for the major acting races. (You can catch up on my predictions about potential Tony-nominated productions here).

Best Actor in a Play

Denis Arndt and Mary-Louise Parker in Heisenberg.

While there are clear critical favorites among the fall musicals (Falsettos, Dear Evan Hansen, and Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812), the already opened plays are more evenly matched with no obvious frontrunners. For Best Actor in a Play, I think the three gentlemen to keep your eye on are Heisenberg's Denis Arndt, The Encounter's Simon McBurney, and The Present's Richard Roxburgh. Arndt's performance seems like the safest bet given the actor driven nature of Heisenberg, but a nod for McBurney would be a way to honor the entirety of his work on the well-reviewed The Encounter (he also wrote and directed the piece) which seems unlikely to be remembered elsewhere. And Roxburgh can't be ruled out for his excellent work in a play that has been marketed on Cate Blanchett's appeal but ultimately centers around Roxburgh's rakish intellectual.

And then there's John Slattery, whose performance in The Front Page is a bit of a wildcard. Slattery is the only member of the starry ensemble comedy deemed eligible in the Lead Actor category, and the play was certainly well liked, ending up on several Best of 2016 lists. But Slattery was essentially overshadowed in the press by his costar Nathan Lane, despite Lane not making his first appearance until almost an hour into the show (Lane seems like an almost guaranteed Featured Actor nominee). I would expect two of these four men to make the cut, but Slattery feels like the longest shot at the moment.

Best Actor in a Musical

Ben Platt as the title character in Dear Evan Hansen.

There is a clear frontrunner in this category, not just for a nomination but for the eventual trophy. Ben Platt's turn as the title character in Dear Evan Hansen has been the talk of the fall season, a hugely admired performance anchoring a hugely admired show. The buzz surrounding him feels very similar to the buzz which greeted Cynthia Erivo upon her Broadway debut last season, and that worked out very well for the Color Purple star. There's definitely competition on the horizon - Jake Gyllenhaal in Sunday in the Park with George and Andy Karl in Groundhog Day immediately spring to mind, and as much as I'm not looking forward to his performance in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory one cannot deny the Tony's love of Christian Borle - but as of this moment, the Best Actor statue is Platt's to lose.

A case can definitely be made for Josh Groban to work his way into this category, with the recording star doing a very admirable job of embodying the withdrawn Pierre in The Great Comet. Holiday Inn's Bryce Pinkham had more to do in his show than Groban, and one should never underestimate how difficult it is to anchor one of those old-fashioned song and dance spectacles, but Pinkham's inclusion here feels like a long shot. And there's always the possibility Tony voters will decide they like Christian Borle's more measured work in Falsettos than his presumed scenery chewing in Charlie and nominated the former performance instead. Groban still feels like the most likely to be in consideration though, after the surefire Platt.

Best Actress in a Play

Oscar-winner Cate Blanchett and Richard Roxburgh in The Present.

Of the fall actresses, the one I'd most expect to see remembered with a Tony nomination is Mary-Louise Parker for Heisenberg. The Tony-winning actress received across the board raves for her complex, nuanced performance in the two character drama, and there aren't enough female-driven plays on the horizon to put her nomination in jeopardy (unless the shows without name stars over deliver on the acting front). I also think the committee will reward Cate Blanchett's long awaited Broadway debut with a Tony nomination as a way to encourage the actress to come back sooner rather than later, hopefully in a show that makes better use of her talent than the occasionally obtuse The Present. That said, even though she has been deemed a lead you could convincingly argue that Blanchett's character is really a supporting one, which could hurt her chances. An unexpectedly weak showing from the spring actresses could also open up a slot for Janet McTeer's scheming Marquis de Merteuil in Les Liaisons Dangereuses, although it is a long shot.

Best Actress in a Musical

Denee Benton in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812.

I've saved this category for last because it is by far the most competitive; in fact, this is shaping up to be a Tony race for the record books. Among the major names starring in spring musicals: Patti LuPone and Christine Ebersole in War Paint; Bette Midler in arguably the most anticipated musical of the season, Hello, Dolly!; Phillipa Soo in the musical adaptation of Amelie; and Annaleigh Ashford in Sunday in the Park with George. (Glenn Close is not eligible for her starring role in Sunset Boulevard, having previously won the Tony for the same role in 1995.) There's also two-time nominee Laura Osnes in the new musical Bandstand, newcomer Eva Noblezada in Miss Saigon (the role which made Lea Salonga a star), and rumblings of a very strong performance from Jenn Colella in the new musical Come From Away (assuming she is deemed a lead actress and not supporting).

In short, there's a lot of competition out there, and if it is as strong as everyone assumes that doesn't bode well for the fall performers. Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812's Denee Benton seems the most likely to break into the race, assuming support for the boundary pushing musical remains as strong as when it initially premiered. Benton is also one of the only women currently eligible for this award; Stephanie J Block's showstopping performance in Falsettos has been deemed a supporting turn, as has Rachel Bay Jones' heartbreaking work in Dear Evan Hansen (I expect both to be nominated for Best Featured Actress). Which leaves Benton as the sole woman standing, and even her position is precarious barring a category expansion.


And those are my current predictions for the 2017 Tony Award nominees! This is obviously all subject to change based on the spring season, and I will certainly be revisiting this topic prior to the official nominations being announced on May 2nd. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments!

2016 Tony Award Predictions: Best Actress

The Tony Awards are almost here, and although I'm *slightly* behind on my prediction articles I am determined to get the rest of them out before Broadway's big night. It's time to tackle the last of the acting races, Best Actress in a Play and Best Actress in a Musical.

As always, I will use a combination of personal experience and popular opinion to determine who is most likely to walk away a winner Sunday night. And should the person most likely to win not match who I think is more deserving to win, I will be sure to point it out in my analysis.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Actress in a Play

Jessica Lange in Roundabout Theatre Company's revival of Long Day's Journey Into Night.

Nominees: Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night; Laurie Metcalf, Misery; Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed; Sophie Okonedo, The Crucible; Michelle Williams, Blackbird

An eclectic mix of performances are represented in this year's Best Actress in a Play category, although it looks increasingly likely that Oscar and Emmy-winner Jessica Lange will end June 12th one step closer to a coveted EGOT (that's an Emmy-Grammy-Oscar-Tony sweep for those of you who don't know). While I personally found the way Lange was directed to be problematic, there's no denying that her morphine-addicted Mary Tyrone is often a force of nature. It helps that the role is also one of the all-time great acting challenges in American drama, and that the currently running Long Day's Journey Into Night is the most recent of all the nominated productions.

I can't really imagine a scenario where one of the other actresses manages to wrest this award away from Lange. Metcalf was probably the only saving grace of the critically lambasted Misery, but I suspect most Tony voters have long since forgotten that Stephen King adaptation. Sophie Okonedo managed one of the most surprising Tony wins in recent memory when she won a Featured Actress Tony for A Raisin in the Sun two years ago, but I don't think the English actress will manage such an unexpected victory this time around. And while Lupita Nyong'o and Michelle Williams both earned strong notices in Eclipsed and Blackbird respectively, it doesn't appear that they inspire the same kind of passion among voters as Lange does.

Will Win: Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night

Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed

Best Actress in a Musical

Cynthia Erivo is here to stay with her star-making performance in The Color Purple.

Nominees: Laura Benanti, She Loves Me; Carmen Cusack, Bright Star; Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple; Jessie Mueller, Waitress; Phillipa Soo, Hamilton

Let's be honest: this award is probably already being engraved with Cynthia Erivo's name. She is simply sensational as the much maligned Miss Celie in John Doyle's stripped down version of The Color Purple, giving the kind of diva performance that is the stuff of theatrical legend. Everyone I have talked to, from theatre geeks to those who went to see The Color Purple primarily for Jennifer Hudson, has been absolutely floored by Erivo's powerhouse performance and roof-rattling voice. And when was the last time an actress routinely commanded a mid-show standing ovation the way Erivo does during her 11 o'clock anthem "I'm Here?" I'd say not since Patti LuPone's "Rose's Turn" in the 2008 Gypsy, which I consider the single greatest musical theatre performance I have ever seen.

The other actresses are all incredibly talented, and in another year would be fiercely competitive. Laura Benanti is perfection in She Loves Me, with the role of perfumerie clerk Amalia Balash seemingly tailor made for her comedic chops and golden soprano. Phillipa Soo immediately impressed me during her Off-Broadway debut in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812, and is equally amazing as the emotional rock upon which Hamilton is built. I haven't seen Jessie Mueller in Waitress, but I have yet to see the Tony-winner give a bad performance, and by all accounts Carmen Cusack is one of the best things about this season's Little Show That Could, Bright Star. Yet Erivo has the combination of talent and incandescent star wattage that only comes about once in a blue moon, and will surely be awarded Broadway's highest honor because of it. (I mean, just listen to this performance from The Late Show with Stephen Colbert and tell me you don't want to give Erivo every award imaginable.)

Do you think this year's Best Actress races are as locked down as I do, or do you expect someone else's name to be called Sunday night? Let me know in the comments, and don't miss out on the rest of my 2016 Tony coverage below:

Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor

Extremely Early 2016 Tony Predictions: Part II

I love talking Tony Awards, but this year's awards offer an interesting conundrum. Many of the musical categories, which are typically my favorite to discuss and dissect, feel like a foregone conclusion thanks to the overwhelming (and deserved) critical and commercial success of Hamilton. If any show can give this musical juggernaut even a minor challenge it will be a miracle, as everyone I know expects the show to clean up at this year's ceremony.

Luckily, the acting categories are much more competitive, given the overwhelming number of positively reviewed productions from the fall. There's already enough noteworthy performances to make for some truly exciting races, and that's not even taking into account all of the yet-to-open spring shows. The one problem with many of these performances (especially the non-musical ones) is that they will be nothing but a memory by the time Tony nominations are announced in May, meaning any acting hopefuls will have to have made a major impression on the theatrical community to stay in contention. So who do I think has done just that? Find out below!

Best Actor in a Musical

Danny Burstein (left) as Tevye in Bartlett Sher's first-rate Fiddler on the Roof.

As far as I'm concerned, this award *needs* to go to Danny Burstein. He is one of the greatest character actors currently in the business, and the fact he has yet to win a Tony is one of the industry's biggest headscratchers. He will definitely get nominated for his superb Tevye in the latest Fiddler on the Roof revival, but will have to overcome some serious competition to actually win. Lin-Manuel Miranda seems destined for an acting nod for his work as the title character in Hamilton, and he will almost certainly be joined in the Lead Actor category by costar Leslie Odom, Jr. thanks to the latter's expertly nuanced portrayal of Aaron Burr.

After those three locks, things get much trickier to predict. Assuming The Color Purple's Isaiah Johnson is deemed a Lead Actor for his role as the villainous Mister, he is one to watch out for and will definitely be a part of the conversation. And many critics were mightily impressed with Alex Brightman's star turn in School of Rock, keeping his name in the mix as well. That's already enough for a full slate of Best Actor in a Musical nominees, and it doesn't even take into account the well-liked work of Austin P. McKenzie in Deaf West's Spring Awakening or any of the leading men from the spring shows. American Psycho's Benjamin Walker; Shuffle Along's Brian Stokes Mitchell, Joshua Henry, and Brandon Victor Dixon (depending on the size of their roles); and Tuck Everlasting's Andrew Keenan-Bolger are all well-respected performers who are definitely in contention, meaning this could be the first Tony race to use last year's rule change to expand past the traditional five nominees.

Best Actress in a Musical

Newcomer Cynthia Erivo in The Color Purple, making one of the most sensational Broadway debuts in years.

Here again we have a category that is already fairly competitive even without taking the spring shows into consideration. The Color Purple's Cynthia Erivo is the clear front-runner at the moment; every critic and audience member I know has been absolutely floored by her soul-stirring performance as the put-upon Celie. The other surefire nominee at this point would be Hamilton's Phillipa Soo, who I had pegged as one to watch during her Off-Broadway debut in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812. Soo's Eliza Hamilton provides the Broadway's latest blockbuster with much of its heart, and the captivating actress gets to display the kind of wide emotional range that makes a performance catnip to awards voters.

Beyond Erivo and Soo, we might not see much representation for the fall shows. I have to imagine the previous Tony-winners Audra McDonald, Jessie Mueller, and Laura Benanti will be among this year's contenders for their highly anticipated spring shows, which would give us a full slate of nominees *unless* the category expands. Should a sixth slot become available, I think On Your Feet's Ana Villafañe is the most likely to fill it thanks to her utterly charming Broadway debut. One also cannot completely rule out Lea Salonga, although the fact that Allegiance will be long gone by the time nominations are announced severely hinders her chances. At this point, my gut tells me this category will stay at five nominees, meaning Mueller or Benanti would have to severely disappoint to make room for one of the other possibilities (the idea of Audra McDonald disappointing in anything is so unlikely it isn't even worth considering).

Best Actor in a Play

Mark Strong in Lincoln Center's avant-garde production of A View from the Bridge.

Currently, there are no clear front-runners in this category, which makes the nomination slots basically up for grabs. Tim Pigott-Smith and Mark Strong were both nominated for Olivier Awards for their work in the King Charles III and A View from the Bridge respectively, and I expect them to be nominated for Tonys as well (Strong ultimately won the Olivier). Aside from them, I don't really see anyone else from the fall slate of plays making the cut. There is a slightly possibility Fool for Love's Sam Rockwell or The Gin Game's James Earl Jones get recognition for their well-reviewed work, but both shows already feel like they closed ages ago and will likely be long forgotten by the time nominations are announced. As this is another category I fully expect to remain at five nominees, I think there's enough contenders among the spring shows to keep the number of fall nominees low.

Best Actress in a Play

Annaleigh Ashford as the titular pooch in A.R. Gurney's Sylvia.

This category is certainly more competitive than Best Actor in a Play at the moment, with several well-loved actresses having already turned in some highly respected performances. Last year's Best Featured Actress winner Annaleigh Ashford will likely find herself competing in the Best Actress category this year her work in Sylvia, as she is someone who just earns better reviews each time she steps onstage. Laurie Metcalfe is probably one of the most respected actresses in the business to not have a Tony, and by all accounts she single-handedly makes Misery watchable, so I expect her to be in contention as well. And if Andrea Martin can not just get nominated but win a Tony for 10 minutes of stage time in Pippin, one has to imagine that playing the lead in Noises Off puts her in a very good position heading into Tony season. We also cannot completely rule out previous Tony winners Nina Arianda, Cecily Tyson, and Linda Lavin from consideration, although at this point all three feel like long shots. And while Kiera Knightly is generally an awards show darling, I think Therese Raquin was simply too divisive of a play to secure her a nomination.


Feel free to share your thoughts on the Lead Actor/Actress categories in the comments, and keep an eye out for the third part of this feature coming soon. In the meantime, you can always check out my previous Tony coverage by clicking on the link below:

Extremely Early 2016 Tony Award Predictions: Part I

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

The 2015 Tony Awards are less than one week away, and the buzz surrounding the upcoming telecast has reached a near deafening volume. As I do every year, I am steadily working my way through predictions for all of the major categories, and today I tackle two categories that are on the opposite ends of the predictability spectrum. One race is practically a foregone conclusion, while the other is so neck and neck that we may not fully process who wins until reading the news in the papers Monday morning. As always, I will make sure to predict not only who will win but who deserves to win, doing my best to keep personal feelings at bay so I can objectively judge the competition (but trust me, I have *very* strong opinions about Best Actress in a Musical). 

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Actress in a Play

Dame Helen Mirren will likely be adding "Tony winner" to her extensive list of accomplishments following her universally praised performance as Elizabeth II in The Audience.

Nominees: Geneva Carr, Hand to God; Helen Mirren, The Audience; Elisabeth Moss, The Heidi Chronicles; Carey Mulligan, Skylight; Ruth Wilson, Constellations

I could do my usual routine of listing the pros and cons of each nominee, but let's be honest: does anyone really expect someone besides Helen Mirren to win this award? Mirren is one of the most universally respected and beloved actresses in the business, reprising her Oscar-winning portrayal of Queen Elizabeth II in a play that has already won her an Olivier Award (the West End equivalent of the Tony). She was a front-runner for Best Actress from the moment the show was announced, and at this point she is looking like a virtual lock.

None of this is meant as a slight to the other actresses, all of whom did fine work and seem like lovely people. Hand to God's Geneva Carr has been particularly charming on the awards circuit due to her palpable excitement at just being nominated; she has repeatedly said she thought she would be replaced by a name star at some point during the play's remarkable journey from Off-Off-Broadway to the Great White Way. Elisabeth Moss and Ruth Wilson both have the disadvantage of their shows having already closed (Moss' prematurely), and even if she doesn't win Carey Mulligan will surely be welcomed back with open arms whenever she decides to return to Broadway. But this is Mirren's year, and I would imagine even her competitors agree that she is entirely deserving.

Will and Should Win: Helen Mirren, The Audience

Best Actress in a Musical

As Lily Garland in On the Twentieth Century, Kristin Chenoweth has found the best showcase for her talents since Wicked 12 years ago.

Nominees: Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century; Leanne Cope, An American in Paris; Beth Malone, Fun Home; Kelli O'Hara, The King and I; Chita Rivera, The Visit

This category has been a major sore spot for me the past few years, and will continue to be one until Kelli O'Hara wins this damn award already! She is one of the all-time great singing actresses, and for me ranks behind only Audra McDonald as the most consistently captivating performer on contemporary Broadway. The fact that six-time nominee O'Hara has yet to win Broadway's highest honor is simply ludicrous, and something I desperately hope the voters rectify this year for her absolutely stellar work in Lincoln Center's The King and I. Yes, the lack of a Tony obviously hasn't hurt the golden-voiced soprano's career - she works more consistently than just about anyone else - but it's the principle of the matter, dammit!

Unfortunately, O'Hara once again finds herself going toe to toe with two of Broadway's most beloved divas, previous Tony winners Chita Rivera and Kristin Chenoweth. O'Hara should be most concerned about Chenoweth, who after a disappointing run in 2010's Promises, Promises and long absence has returned in top form with her gutbusting performance in On the Twentieth Century (fun fact: both women attended the same university and studied under the same vocal instructor). Chenoweth's unique set of comic gifts make the actress difficult to cast in most revivals, but the role of Lily Garland fits the pint-sized dynamo like a glove. Chenoweth's performance is also the showier of the two, though comparing her farcical antics to O'Hara's naturalistic charisma points out the inherent problems with trying to pick a "best" actress in such a wide-ranging medium.

As much as it pains me to say it, I think public sentiment may be leaning towards Chenoweth. O'Hara is so reliably excellent and prolific that I think a segment of the community takes her brilliance for granted (similar to how the universally praised Meryl Streep has 19 career Oscar nominations but "only" 3 actual wins). And if I'm being as objective as possible, it is very hard to argue against Chenoweth; her only slight missteps in Twentieth Century stem from weird directorial choices rather than any failings on the actress' part. I will continue to root hard for O'Hara, and think she has a legitimate chance at finally getting her due after years of being overlooked. But if Chenoweth is called to the stage Sunday night, I can't say I'll be surprised. I just hope she has more than 20 seconds to change her wig this time around.

Will Win: Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century
Should Win: Kelli O'Hara, The King and I


That covers all the acting categories. Check back on Wednesday and Friday for my predictions in the four production categories, including the highly coveted Best Musical award. Meanwhile, check out the rest of my Tony coverage below.

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part III (Best Actress)

Tony Tuesday is right around the corner, with the 2015 nominees scheduled to be announced bright and early on Tuesday, April 28th. (I've always found it odd that a profession where most everyone works nights announces anything so early in the morning, but that is neither here nor there.) I've already discussed which productions and leading men I expect to score nominations, and now it's time to turn my attention to Broadway's leading ladies. The latest Tony rule change allows anywhere between five and seven nominees in each category, leaving me to puzzle out not only the names of the contenders but how many of them I expect there to be. I doubt every category to automatically expand to seven nominees, but I don't expect every category to stay capped at five either. And in the name of covering my bases for the inevitable Tony curveball nomination, I'm also naming a wildcard performer who I feel has the best chance of unseating one of my official predictions.


Best Actress

Dame Helen Mirren is practically theatrical royalty, and she is playing royalty in the box office smash The Audience. She is one of this year's few sure things when it comes to the Tony Awards.

There are very few givens for this year's Tony Awards, but one of those givens is that Helen Mirren will be up for Best Actress. The Oscar winner is reprising her much lauded portrayal of Queen Elizabeth II in The Audience, one of this spring's biggest box office successes. Some critics weren't overly impressed with playwright Peter Morgan's script, but everyone agreed Mirren made the show worth seeing, and in all honesty this award is likely hers to lose. And although not quite the lock Mirren is, Skylight's Carey Mulligan is another actress virtually guaranteed an invite to this year's ceremony at Radio City. 

I would be very surprised to see Constellations' Ruth Wilson excluded from this year's race, as she drew universal raves for her performance in Manhattan Theatre Club's two-hander. Less certain is a nomination for Elisabeth Moss, as the revival of Wendy Wasserstein's The Heidi Chronicles was not the critical home run many people were expecting and has already posted an early closing notice due to lackluster box office. Still, even those who weren't enamored with the production generally liked the Mad Men actress' performance, particularly her delivery of a key monologue during the play's second act. I'm going to cut the former Peggy Olsen some slack and consider her to be among this year's nominees.

Which still leaves at least one nomination up for grabs with no obvious candidate to fill it. Perhaps Maggie Gyllenhaal will join her brother Jake among this year's nominees for her performance in Roundabout's well liked (but not loved) revival of The Real Thing. Glenn Close's much ballyhooed return to Broadway in Edward Albee's A Delicate Balance failed to generate much box office heat, but the actress remains an industry favorite and the weaker field of competitors could work in her favor. Hand to God's Geneva Carr has been ruled eligible in this category instead of the Featured Actress race, and her strong performance combined with an obvious critical love for the boundary pushing play makes her a strong contender. In fact, I suspect Carr will edge out more famous names like Renee Fleming (currently playing an opera diva in Living on Love) and previous Tony winner Blythe Danner, whose fall play The Country House has been entirely absent from the end of season chatter.

Nominees
Geneva Carr, Hand to God
Helen Mirren, The Audience
Elisabeth Moss, The Heidi Chronicles
Carey Mulligan, Skylight
Ruth Wilson, Constellations

Wildcard
Glenn Close, A Delicate Balance


Best Actress in a Musical

Pint sized powerhouse Kristin Chenoweth is giving 110% in Roundabout's On the Twentieth Century, and will surely get a Tony nomination for her efforts.

Anyone who has been following this blog will know I am *heavily* rooting for Kelli O'Hara to win this damn award already! She is one of our most gifted singing actresses, and she is once again giving a masterclass performance in Lincoln Center's The King and I, a production I literally don't have enough positive adjectives for. There is no reality in which her reteaming with director Bartlett Sher fails to net the actress her sixth career nomination, as all three of their previous collaborations resulted not only in nominations but some of O'Hara's most legendary performances. I know several Tony voters specifically held off on voting for the golden voiced soprano last year under the assumption she was a shoe in to win this year (which is so not how these things should work, but that's a rant for another time); her failing to even get nominated would be one of the most shocking things to happen with the Tony nominations in years.

My unbridled love of O'Hara aside, I have to admit that Broadway's other blonde Oklahoma native is going to give O'Hara a serious run for her money. After a poorly received performance in Promises, Promises and five years away from the Broadway stage, Kristin Chenoweth is firing on all cylinders in On the Twentieth Century, a role that seems tailor-made for her unique combination of talents. Her nomination is guaranteed, and I think everyone agrees that she and O'Hara are this year's front runners. (Fun fact: Chenoweth and O'Hara both went to the same school and had the same vocal instructor, who must be ridiculously proud.) The final sure thing in this race is a nod for Broadway legend Chita Rivera in The Visit, with the actress once again paired with the writing team of Kander, Ebb, and McNally, who crafted both of Rivera's previous Tony-winning roles around her singular set of talents.

After that, things become much harder to predict. Brynn O'Malley *deserves* recognition for her sterling work in Honeymoon in Vegas, although I worry what the show's truncated Broadway run means for her Tony prospects. I'd also love to see a joint nomination for Side Show's Erin Davie and Emily Padgett, but the committee has already decided to consider the actresses separately and their show's premature closing will severely limit their chances. If pressed to pick a favorite, I'd give the slight edge to Padgett for the more emotionally complex of the two roles, as Tony voters have shown an increasing appreciation for nuance over flash in the past few seasons. This same trend also increases Beth Malone's chances for her moving portrayal of adult Alison in Fun Home, although I personally would consider it more of a featured role.

The final three actresses that I think have a legitimate shot are Gigi's Vanessa Hudgens, Finding Neverland's Laura Michelle Kelly, and An American in Paris' Leanne Cope. I suspect Tony voters are ultimately too snobbish to give a Tony nomination to former High School Musical star Hudgens, and the fact that her show was pretty resoundingly trashed by critics doesn't help. On the flip side, Kelly escaped the vitriol hurled towards Neverland virtually unscathed and possibly looking even better by comparison. And Paris has been doing surprisingly well at both the box office and in the various guild awards, all of which have singled out Cope for her Broadway debut. I give the edge to Cope and Kelly, but I wouldn't be shocked to see any of these women nominated come Tuesday morning.

Nominees
Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century
Leanne Cope, An American in Paris
Laura Michelle Kelly, Finding Neverland
Beth Malone, Fun Home
Kelli O'Hara, The King and I
Chita Rivera, The Visit

Wildcard
Brynn O'Malley, Honeymoon in Vegas


That covers this year's leading performances; check back tomorrow for my analysis of the hardest categories to predict, the Featured Actor/Actress races. In the meantime, feel free to share which leading lady you'd like to see nominated in the comments, and don't forget to check out any Tony coverage you may have missed!

Tony Rule Change
2015 Nominee Predictions: Production
2015 Nominee Predictions: Best Actor

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part II

Because my love of the Tony Awards cannot be contained to a mere six weeks in the spring, I am once again using the winter lull in Broadway activity to assess the Tony prospects of last fall's shows. I've already discussed my thoughts on the production categories, meaning it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress awards.

This year sees a potentially game changing new rule allowing up to seven nominees in each of the acting categories, which is highly exciting but also makes any predictions that much harder. Since a tie in the nominations process is required to activate a category expansion I doubt we'll see it occur across the board, and after last year's Best Musical controversy I think it's best to assume the committee will err towards less rather than more nominees. With a large number of productions slated to open in the next few months that will surely produce some awards buzz, I'm also going to limit my discussion here to those performers I think have made particularly strong critical impressions.

Warning: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Actor in a Musical

Tony Yazbeck is giving a helluva performance in the triumphant Broadway return of On the Town.

The currently aren't a lot of performers who qualify in this category, but a couple of them already look like sure things. Tony Yazbeck is a hard-working and well-respected triple threat who's been given the role of his career in the top notch revival of On the Town. Yazbeck knocks it out of the park with his beautifully sung and gorgeously danced Gabey, and I would be shocked if he didn't at least score a nomination. I also expect Honeymoon in Vegas' Rob McClure to be among the lucky few on April 28th, especially since his current vehicle is much more deserving of the mercurial actor's many talents than the ill-fated Chaplin (for which he was also nominated). If there weren't so many male-fronted musicals on the horizon I would be more optimistic about Michael Esper's chances for his accomplished work in The Last Ship, but that show's early closing will be a difficult obstacle to overcome. There's also a very slim chance McClure's costar Tony Danza scores a nod, although I suspect he might be demoted to the supporting actor race despite his above the title billing.

Best Actor in a Play

Recent Julliard graduate Alex Sharp (right) astounds in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, a performance made all the more impressive by the fact that it's his Broadway debut. 

This is, hands down, the most competitive acting category at the moment. If any race is going to prompt an expansion in the number of nominees, it will be this one, which features a glut of deserving talent even before the upcoming spring shows are taken into account. It would be downright criminal to deny a nomination to The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's Alex Sharp, the Julliard graduate whose Broadway debut is more layered, nuanced, and compelling than many Broadway veterans. And while Bradley Cooper's name certainly helped generate initial interest in The Elephant Man, it's his universally praised performance as the titular character that has made that revival one of the season's hottest tickets. Both Sharp and Cooper are virtual locks.

Very close behind them is Broadway favorite Hugh Jackman, although The River has proven divisive enough as a play that it might hinder his Tony chances. On the other hand, even critics who were lukewarm on the production were impressed with the Jackman's performance, with several calling it the best of his Broadway career. It would be very surprising to see Jackman's name excluded when the nominations are announced, but the category is so competitive he may wind up as one of this year's high profile snubs. A case can also be made for Jake Gyllenhaal in his well-reviewed Broadway debut, but my feeling is that several of the spring plays will have to disappoint for the trippy Constellations to have any real awards momentum come April. And while Nathan Lane is one of our most reliable talents and was easily the best thing about the disappointing It's Only a Play, I just don't know if there's space for him among this year's nominees. If there's going to be a wildcard among the lead actors, it would be Disgraced's Hari Dhillon, but in all honesty I think the category is just too crowded for him to make the cut.

Best Actress in a Musical

Brynn O'Malley (right) gets romanced by a crooning Tony Danza in the fun-filled musical romp Honeymoon in Vegas.

I want to go on record saying Brynn O'Malley needs a Tony nomination for her standout work in Honeymoon in Vegas; her performance was my favorite thing about Jason Robert Brown's highly enjoyable musical comedy. She has little chance of actually winning, especially with new roles for Tony darlings Kelli O'Hara, Kristin Chenoweth, and Chita Rivera on the horizon, but I'm really hoping the committee includes O'Malley's name among those announced on April 28th (I think they will). I also have a soft spot for Side Show's Erin Davie and Emily Padgett, perfectly matched as conjoined twins Daisy and Violet Hilton, but I fear their show will be too long gone by the time nominations are doled out. While it would be nice to see the pair win a joint nomination like their predecessors Alice Ripley and Emily Skinner did in 1998, I have a sneaking suspicion these talented ladies will be considered individually and split votes to the point neither gets nominated. Should the category expand to six or seven nominees, there's also an outside chance The Last Ship's Rachel Tucker gets nominated for her performance as the conflicted Meg Dawson, but that scenario involves one or more of the spring's actresses turning in an unexpectedly subpar performance.

Best Actress in a Play

Three time Tony winner Glenn Close returned to Broadway in the well reviewed revival of A Delicate Balance, but the curiously buzz free production may well be forgotten by the time Tony Awards are handed out.

Most of the big names in plays this fall were men, which leaves the Best Actress category with more breathing room. It also makes this race more unpredictable, as it could go any number of ways. Glenn Close's much anticipated Broadway return in A Delicate Balance was well received and certainly makes the three-time Tony winner a contender, although that production has virtually no buzz around it. As a member of Disgraced's much praised ensemble Gretchen Mol also merits consideration, and may be the one actor from the incendiary play that actually manages to score a nomination. I would also keep an eye on Constellations' Ruth Wilson, as the two-time Olivier Award winner is a big part of why that reality-spanning love story went over so well with critics. The Real Thing's Maggie Gyllenhaal might even slip in here if the category does expand, although I have to imagine at least one of the slots is reserved for Helen Mirren's Queen Elizabeth II in this spring's The Audience.


Those are my thoughts on where the lead actor and actress races currently stand; feel free to share your picks in the comments. And for more of my 2015 Tony Awards coverage, check out below:

Tony Awards Rule Change
Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part I