2016 Tony Award Predictions: Best Actor

The Tony Awards are less than a week away, so it's time to really ramp up our prediction articles here at Broadway, Etc. The remaining categories are arguably the most prestigious, with the Best Actor/Actress and production categories having the greatest effect on both individual shows and entire careers. Winning a Tony in one of the leading performance categories definitely opens up a host of career opportunities, and can turn a relative unknown into a bankable star capable of opening a big budget production on name recognition alone.

Although etiquette typically dictates "ladies first," we're actually going to start with the Best Actor candidates, as the two Best Actress categories tend to be more eagerly anticipated by the theatrical community. Which takes nothing away from the incredible achievements of this year's nominated men, who have delivered some truly stunning performances over the past 12 months. As always, I will use a combination of personal observation and gut feeling to determine the most likely winner, and if that person doesn't align with who I would personally vote for I will make sure to point it out in my analysis.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Actor in a Play

Frank Langella in Manhattan Theatre Club's production of The Father

Nominees: Gabriel Bryne, Long Day's Journey Into Night; Jeff Daniels, Blackbird; Frank Langella, The Father; Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III; Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge

The further into awards season we get, the more Frank Langella appears to have a lock on this award. The three-time Tony-winner has received virtually every Best Actor award in existence for his universally praised performance as an aging man dealing with the onset of dementia, a feat even more impressive when you consider that many critics weren't exactly enthralled with The Father as a play. 

Looking at the rest of the nominees, I don't really see any viable challenges. Tim Pigott-Smith's acclaimed turn in the title role of King Charles III seems like ages ago, as the show closed before most of the other nominated productions even opened. Jeff Daniels certainly earned his share of critical accolades for bringing a large measure of humanity to a former child molester, but the overriding feeling towards Blackbird seems to be one of respect rather than outright enjoyment. When push comes to shove, most Tony voters go with the show/performance that excites them the most, something that rarely comes from a production they don't feel passionately about. Gabriel Bryne does brilliantly subtle work as patriarch James Tyrone in Long Day's Journey Into Night, but has been largely overshadowed in people's minds by costar Jessica Lange. If anyone is going to give Langella a run for his money, it's Mark Strong for the critically beloved A View from the Bridge, but that show is probably too long gone for Strong to be truly competitive.

Will & Should Win: Frank Langella, The Father

Best Actor in a Musical

Aaron Burr, sir: Leslie Odom, Jr. in Hamilton.

Nominees: Alex Brightman, School of Rock; Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof; Zachary Levi, She Loves Me; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton; Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

This is actually one of the most competitive, unpredictable races of the night. I feel fairly confident in ruling out first-time nominee Alex Brightman, mostly due to the strength of his competition rather than any fault in the actor's by all accounts fantastic performance. And while I and many others absolutely *adored* Zachary Levi's pitch perfect work in Roundabout's fantastic She Loves Me revival, the TV star turned Tony Award-nominee also feels like an extreme long shot to win.

Many people seem to think being the creative genius behind this season's presumptive Best Musical Hamilton makes Lin-Manuel Miranda likely to win this award, but I actually think it hurts his chances at a Best Actor victory. Tony voters know he will be walking away with several writing awards Sunday night, and therefore will likely opt to spread the wealth around in this category. Also, with all due respect to Miranda, his is a very good performance competing against several extraordinary ones, and if he were to win here it would be a case of hype overriding merit.

I think this race will ultimately boil down to Leslie Odom, Jr.'s fascinating Aaron Burr versus Danny Burstein's transfixing Tevye. Burstein has been a staple of the Broadway community and the Tony Awards for the better part of a decade, with many (myself included) feeling he is long overdue for his first win after five previous nominations. Six proved to be the magic number for Kelli O'Hara, who finally won the Tony for her work in The King and I last year, and I can easily see a similar outcome here (complete with the accompanying standing ovation). Yet Leslie Odom, Jr. is delivering a star making performance in megahit Hamilton, and the momentum behind that show cannot be underestimated. Further helping Odom, Jr.'s case is the fact that Hamilton is much more universally beloved than the latest incarnation of Fiddler, which despite strong critical notices doesn't seem to inspire much passion in anyone describing it.

My gut says that Odom, Jr. just barely wins this award, but my gut also said Kristin Chenoweth would win last year. And if I'm being totally honest, I would probably vote for him too if forced to choose. Hamilton allows Odom, Jr.'s performance to be exciting in a way the somewhat staid Fiddler doesn't allow Burstein's to be, and I think that will ultimately give Odom, Jr. the edge in the night's closest race.

Will & Should Win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

Extremely Close Second: Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof

Who are you rooting for in the hotly contested Best Actor in a Musical category? Think any of the play nominees can seriously challenge Frank Langella? Let me know in the comments, and check back throughout the week for the rest of my Tony predictions. And in the meantime, catch up on my previous coverage below:

Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor 

Best Featured Actress

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part II (Best Actor/Actress)

We're only a few short days away from the announcement of the 2016 Tony nominees, and as has become tradition here at Broadway, Etc. I'm doing my best to predict who they'll be! Today we'll be discussing the starring turns from this past season most likely to compete for Broadway's highest honor, using my completely improvised combination of honest evaluation, understanding of theatre trends, and gut feelings.

This year also marks the first time the main acting categories can expand to a potential seven nominees each, provided there is a two- or three-way tie for the 5th slot. I find it highly unlikely that will happen, given the nominating committee's recent tendency towards the lowest possible number of nominees, but it is technically possible. So in each category I will be selecting wildcard picks, the performer or performers I think most likely to prompt a category expansion or unseat one of my official nominees.

So without further ado, let's get on with the show!

Best Actor in a Musical

Danny Burstein and the company of Fiddler on the Roof.

I have gone on record with my belief that Danny Burstein is one of our most gifted character actors, and the fact he has yet to win a Tony Award despite five career nominations is borderline criminal. His towering Tevye in Fiddler on the Roof will certainly net him nomination number six, and I sincerely hope this is the year he finally wins. He will surely be joined by American Psycho's Benjamin Walker, who has been roundly praised for his portrayal of serial killer Patrick Bateman and has been nominated for every other guild award thus far.

And, surprisingly enough, those are the only two actors I'm ready to call sure things in this category. Hamilton presents an interesting conundrum in that both Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom, Jr. are eligible here, and no one seems quite sure if the committee will nominate one, both, or if they will effectively cancel one another out. In recent years we've seen several pairs of male leads pitted against one another (Andrew Rannells and Josh Gad in The Book of Mormon, Stark Sands and Billy Porter in Kinky Boots, and Jefferson Mays and Bryce Pinkham in Gentleman's Guide), so I am inclined to think both men make the cut. If only one of them is nominated, my money's on Odom, Jr.; quite frankly, he's the better actor, and the nominators may decide that the book and score nominations coming Miranda's way are more than enough praise for Broadway's resident genius.

With the men of Shuffle Along all being ruled Featured rather than Leading Actors, the way seems clear for School of Rock's breakout star Alex Brightman to score his first ever Tony nomination. We also cannot rule out Zachary Levi for his utterly charming work in She Loves Me, a show quickly proving to be an awards season favorite and in my opinion one of the best productions of the season.

Nominees: 
Alex Brightman, School of Rock
Danny Burstain, Fiddler on the Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Benjamin Walker, American Psycho

Wildcard:
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me (I would love love *love* to see him make the cut)

Best Actor in a Play

Frank Langella in Manhattan Theatre Club's production of The Father.

In this category, I think the closest we have to surefire nominees are a pair of British actors who were roundly praised for their performances last fall. Tim Pigott-Smith earned across the board raves for his portrayal of the title character in King Charles III, and Mark Strong was equally lauded for his work as Eddie Carbone in the avant garde revival of A View from the Bridge. When it comes to spring shows, Broadway treasure Frank Langella seems to have a seventh career nomination coming his way for his work in The Father, with the three-time Tony-winner routinely cited as the best thing about the production.

Other strong contenders include Gabriel Byrne for his quietly devastating work in Long Day's Journey Into Night and Jeff Daniels for his harrowing portrayal of a former child molester in Blackbird. I also wouldn't rule out Jesse Tyler Ferguson's work in Fully Committed; the one man show earned fairly good reviews, and as the sole performer in the show Ferguson obviously played a major role in its success. And while I suspect the show is too long gone to be remembered come nomination time, Fool for Love's Sam Rockwell did get a great deal of praise for his work in the Sam Shepard drama.

Nominees:
Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird
Frank Langella, The Father
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge

Wildcard:
Sam Rockwell, Fool for Love

Best Actress in a Musical

Laura Benanti in Roundabout Theatre Company's revival of She Loves Me

As per usual, this is one of the most competitive categories around, although many of the nominees seem set at this point. Past winners Audra McDonald, Laura Benanti, and Jesse Mueller are virtually guaranteed nominations, with all three delivering superb performances in their respective shows. And Hamilton's Phillipa Soo, who I have been raving about since her work in Off-Broadway's Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812 a few seasons back, is doing phenomenal work as the mega-hit musical's emotional anchor; her talent combined with the massive buzz behind the show should be enough to secure her a spot among this year's nominees.

Which leaves only one guaranteed nomination spot left to be filled, and I can't imagine it going to anyone other than The Color Purple's Cynthia Erivo. The British actress is simply sensational as the put-upon Miss Celie, bringing the house down nightly with her soul-stirring rendition of the show's eleven o'clock anthem "I'm Here."

Honestly, all of these women seem like virtual locks, and I would be shocked to see any of them excluded in favor of someone else. Which is not to say there aren't other deserving nominees out there; Carmen Cusack has won herself a lot of fans with her work in the Steve Martin musical Bright Star, and Ana Villafane's spot-on channeling of a young Gloria Estefan has a lot to do with On Your Feet working as well as it does. If any of the leading performance categories were to expand beyond five nominees, it would likely be this one.

Nominees:
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple
Audra McDonald, Shuffle Along
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton

Wildcard:
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star

Best Actress in a Play

Lupita Nyong'o in Eclipsed

This is the category I have least feel for, as despite the abundance of plays this season many of them have had male leads. One play that bucked that trend is Danai Gurira's all-female Eclipsed, and I expect its Oscar-winning star Lupita Nyong'o to be among the women who hear their name called Tuesday morning. I also have a very good feeling about last year's Best Featured Actress winner Annaleigh Ashford being nominated again for her turn as the titular pooch in this season's Sylvia. And while I personally had some reservations about Jessica Lange in Long Day's Journey Into Night (specifically the way she was directed), she is the one other name I would be genuinely surprised to see excluded from the Best Actress race.

As for the other two slots, they are really up for grabs. Past Best Actress winners Nina Arianda and Linda Lavin are certainly in contention for their work in Fool for Love and Our Mother's Brief Affair respectively. I would give the edge to Arianda, as while both shows have been closed for a while she has managed to at least get a couple of theatre guild nominations this season, while Lavin has been passed over. There's also Michelle Williams to consider for her work in Blackbird, and the very slight chance that Laurie Metcalfe is remembered for doing her best to save the critically panned Misery from itself.

Nominees:
Nina Arianda, Fool for Love
Annaleigh Ashford, Sylvia
Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed
Michelle Williams, Blackbird

Wildcard: 
Linda Lavin, Our Mother's Brief Affair


Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments. Check back Tuesday afternoon to see how well I did, and in the meantime catch up on the rest of my Tony coverage:

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

Extremely Early 2016 Tony Predictions: Part II

I love talking Tony Awards, but this year's awards offer an interesting conundrum. Many of the musical categories, which are typically my favorite to discuss and dissect, feel like a foregone conclusion thanks to the overwhelming (and deserved) critical and commercial success of Hamilton. If any show can give this musical juggernaut even a minor challenge it will be a miracle, as everyone I know expects the show to clean up at this year's ceremony.

Luckily, the acting categories are much more competitive, given the overwhelming number of positively reviewed productions from the fall. There's already enough noteworthy performances to make for some truly exciting races, and that's not even taking into account all of the yet-to-open spring shows. The one problem with many of these performances (especially the non-musical ones) is that they will be nothing but a memory by the time Tony nominations are announced in May, meaning any acting hopefuls will have to have made a major impression on the theatrical community to stay in contention. So who do I think has done just that? Find out below!

Best Actor in a Musical

Danny Burstein (left) as Tevye in Bartlett Sher's first-rate Fiddler on the Roof.

As far as I'm concerned, this award *needs* to go to Danny Burstein. He is one of the greatest character actors currently in the business, and the fact he has yet to win a Tony is one of the industry's biggest headscratchers. He will definitely get nominated for his superb Tevye in the latest Fiddler on the Roof revival, but will have to overcome some serious competition to actually win. Lin-Manuel Miranda seems destined for an acting nod for his work as the title character in Hamilton, and he will almost certainly be joined in the Lead Actor category by costar Leslie Odom, Jr. thanks to the latter's expertly nuanced portrayal of Aaron Burr.

After those three locks, things get much trickier to predict. Assuming The Color Purple's Isaiah Johnson is deemed a Lead Actor for his role as the villainous Mister, he is one to watch out for and will definitely be a part of the conversation. And many critics were mightily impressed with Alex Brightman's star turn in School of Rock, keeping his name in the mix as well. That's already enough for a full slate of Best Actor in a Musical nominees, and it doesn't even take into account the well-liked work of Austin P. McKenzie in Deaf West's Spring Awakening or any of the leading men from the spring shows. American Psycho's Benjamin Walker; Shuffle Along's Brian Stokes Mitchell, Joshua Henry, and Brandon Victor Dixon (depending on the size of their roles); and Tuck Everlasting's Andrew Keenan-Bolger are all well-respected performers who are definitely in contention, meaning this could be the first Tony race to use last year's rule change to expand past the traditional five nominees.

Best Actress in a Musical

Newcomer Cynthia Erivo in The Color Purple, making one of the most sensational Broadway debuts in years.

Here again we have a category that is already fairly competitive even without taking the spring shows into consideration. The Color Purple's Cynthia Erivo is the clear front-runner at the moment; every critic and audience member I know has been absolutely floored by her soul-stirring performance as the put-upon Celie. The other surefire nominee at this point would be Hamilton's Phillipa Soo, who I had pegged as one to watch during her Off-Broadway debut in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812. Soo's Eliza Hamilton provides the Broadway's latest blockbuster with much of its heart, and the captivating actress gets to display the kind of wide emotional range that makes a performance catnip to awards voters.

Beyond Erivo and Soo, we might not see much representation for the fall shows. I have to imagine the previous Tony-winners Audra McDonald, Jessie Mueller, and Laura Benanti will be among this year's contenders for their highly anticipated spring shows, which would give us a full slate of nominees *unless* the category expands. Should a sixth slot become available, I think On Your Feet's Ana Villafañe is the most likely to fill it thanks to her utterly charming Broadway debut. One also cannot completely rule out Lea Salonga, although the fact that Allegiance will be long gone by the time nominations are announced severely hinders her chances. At this point, my gut tells me this category will stay at five nominees, meaning Mueller or Benanti would have to severely disappoint to make room for one of the other possibilities (the idea of Audra McDonald disappointing in anything is so unlikely it isn't even worth considering).

Best Actor in a Play

Mark Strong in Lincoln Center's avant-garde production of A View from the Bridge.

Currently, there are no clear front-runners in this category, which makes the nomination slots basically up for grabs. Tim Pigott-Smith and Mark Strong were both nominated for Olivier Awards for their work in the King Charles III and A View from the Bridge respectively, and I expect them to be nominated for Tonys as well (Strong ultimately won the Olivier). Aside from them, I don't really see anyone else from the fall slate of plays making the cut. There is a slightly possibility Fool for Love's Sam Rockwell or The Gin Game's James Earl Jones get recognition for their well-reviewed work, but both shows already feel like they closed ages ago and will likely be long forgotten by the time nominations are announced. As this is another category I fully expect to remain at five nominees, I think there's enough contenders among the spring shows to keep the number of fall nominees low.

Best Actress in a Play

Annaleigh Ashford as the titular pooch in A.R. Gurney's Sylvia.

This category is certainly more competitive than Best Actor in a Play at the moment, with several well-loved actresses having already turned in some highly respected performances. Last year's Best Featured Actress winner Annaleigh Ashford will likely find herself competing in the Best Actress category this year her work in Sylvia, as she is someone who just earns better reviews each time she steps onstage. Laurie Metcalfe is probably one of the most respected actresses in the business to not have a Tony, and by all accounts she single-handedly makes Misery watchable, so I expect her to be in contention as well. And if Andrea Martin can not just get nominated but win a Tony for 10 minutes of stage time in Pippin, one has to imagine that playing the lead in Noises Off puts her in a very good position heading into Tony season. We also cannot completely rule out previous Tony winners Nina Arianda, Cecily Tyson, and Linda Lavin from consideration, although at this point all three feel like long shots. And while Kiera Knightly is generally an awards show darling, I think Therese Raquin was simply too divisive of a play to secure her a nomination.


Feel free to share your thoughts on the Lead Actor/Actress categories in the comments, and keep an eye out for the third part of this feature coming soon. In the meantime, you can always check out my previous Tony coverage by clicking on the link below:

Extremely Early 2016 Tony Award Predictions: Part I

A Broadway "Tradition" Continues

Review: Fiddler on the Roof

Danny Burstein as Tevye in the latest Broadway revival of Fiddler on the Roof.

How does one reinvent a show centered around the concept of tradition? It is the title of the glorious opening number of Fiddler on the Roof, where Jewish milkman Tevye speaking directly to the audience about the virtues of the well-delineated societal rules in his little town of Anatevka. Throughout the show Tevye and his daughters deviate from the old ways with only the purest of intents, and yet it still causes an enormous amount of trouble for the well-meaning clan. Those traditions end up providing the characters comfort in times of great adversity, and the show ultimately seems to argue that while some change is inevitable there's no need to completely ignore the old way of doing things. Oddly enough, it is a lesson director Bartlett Sher attempts to teach while simultaneously ignoring, as the least successful aspects of this generally first rate revival (the show's fifth) are the areas where Sher most obviously breaks from the traditional way of mounting the show.

Sher has made quite the name for himself staging critically heralded revivals of both plays and musicals, having found particular success with the works of Rodgers and Hammerstein. With Fiddler on the Roof, he once again sweeps away the cobwebs from a script some may view as dated and makes it compelling and relevant. Yet unlike his Tony-winning South Pacific or The King and I, Sher's directorial hand is more apparent here, and not always for the better. He hasn't changed a word of the script, but he has awkwardly grafted a wordless modern dress framing device onto the show that doesn't add anything to the preexisting text. The production design is also purposefully deconstructed for reasons that aren't at all apparent, occasionally distracting from rather than adding to the storytelling.

Now none of the above is meant to in any way imply that Sher's direction is bad. It is often outstanding, breathing fresh life into a show many know by heart. Sher has guided his cast to fully lived performances that feel fresh, exciting, and even slightly dangerous. He has a near matchless understanding of pacing, giving each story beat room to breathe while also keeping everything moving along at such a steady clip the show never drags despite its three hour runtime. He has a stellar eye for simple yet powerful stage pictures, and seamlessly switches gears between broad comedy and heartwrenching drama. Sher has never directed a funnier sequence than "Tevye's Dream," and he his storytelling has rarely been as devastating as it is during the show's emotional climax, which makes his few missteps all the more noticeable.

Sher is aided, as always, by an impeccable cast of theatrical greats working at the top of their game. Headlining this Fiddler is five-time Tony-nominee Danny Burstein in the role of Tevye, and the veteran character actor has arguably never been better. While it would be disingenuous to call Burstein's performance understated - among other things, he gets to play more comedy than he's been given in any role since Adolfo in The Drowsey Chaperone - his performance is not as immediately flashy as one might expect from a role written for the famously outsized Zero Mostel. But it is a deeply felt, fully realized portrayal that builds and builds to an emotional sucker punch of a climax, when one of his beloved daughters decides to marry outside the faith. Burstein is alternatively jovial and genuinely imposing as the role demands, and he handles all the areas in between with such effortless aplomb you forget he's acting at all. His voice also perfectly suits the show's famous score, and his exuberant performance of "If I Were a Rich Man" is every bit the showstopper such a gifted performer deserves.

Burstein's performance forms the blueprint that the rest of the cast follows, as many of his fellow actors also initially appear unassuming while laying the groundwork for what are revealed to be deeply affecting performances. Jessica Hecht's wife Golde at first skews very harsh and shrewish (you definitely understand why Tevye would be scared of her), but she leavens her work with enough moments of tenderness that it is genuinely touching when she struggles to answer Tevye's question of "Do You Love Me?" She is also heartbreaking during the final few scenes, as the aftermath of her third daughter's marriage fully hits.

As daughters Tzietel, Hodel, and Chava respectively, Alexandra Silber, Samantha Massell, and Melanie Moore all have their moments, although it takes them a bit longer to click into their roles. Their performance of "Matchmaker, Matchermaker" isn't quite the homerun you'd expect, but to their credit all three act the song so well it makes you hear the well-known lyrics anew.  Massell also does a phenomenal job with Hodel's "Far From the Home I Love," making the song a late-evening highlight. The structure of the show doesn't provide as much for Adam Kantor (Motel), Ben Rappaport (Perchik), and Aaron Young (Fyedka) to do as the daughter's respective spouses, but all three actors make strong impression with the material they do have. And if Alix Korey's Yente the Matchmaker isn't quite the scenery chewer you'd expect, she is nevertheless absolutely hysterical.

Few shows have proven as durable and iconic a part of the musical theatre cannon as Fiddler on the Roof, and Bartlett Sher has staged this latest revival in a way that reminds even the skeptics how Fiddler achieved that status in the first place. Sher also continues to bring out the best in some of the industry's top talent, guiding Burstein to what may well be considered his crowning achievement. The entire production seems to exist primarily to showcase the actor's many talents, and yet he remains so giving and supportive of his fellow performers he never overshadows the story they are all trying to tell. (I try to leave talk of Tony Awards out of reviews, but if Burstein doesn't finally win an acting trophy for this I don't know what more he can possibly do.) And as always, it is refreshing and invigorating to see such a classic approached with such lavish attention to detail, from the gloriously full orchestra to the finely detailed costumes. Some traditions are worth keeping, and if Fiddler continues to be this entertaining and moving I see no problem with continuing to revive the show every ten years.

Should've Won the Tony

I love the Tony Awards. Tony Sunday is basically a national holiday to me, and every year I devote dozens of blog posts to analyzing the various races and predicting likely winners. As I point out every year, the person or production that wins the Tony is not always the most deserving, but the right combination of merit, proper positioning, and backstage politics. As with any artistic award (Oscars, Emmys, etc.) we're all at least subconsciously aware of these other factors, and in the grand scheme of things winning doesn't necessarily matter or affect career opportunities. But even knowing all that, the fact remains that Tonys are the most prestigious award in the industry, and it is just irksome when they get things wrong!

Below are a few of the more egregious oversights in the Tony Awards' 66 year history, people and productions that really deserved to win that damn spinning statuette. I want to make very clear that I am not saying the actual winner in each of these races was undeserving. Of all the Tony winning performances and productions I've been lucky enough to witness, I would be hard-pressed to name one that I thought was unforgivably awful. But if I could magically go back in time and alter the outcome of past Tony races, these nominees would be on the top of my list.

West Side Story for Best Musical (1958)

The original cast of the landmark 1957 musical West Side Story, arguably one of the most famous and beloved stage shows in existence.

Actual Winner: The Music Man

Meredith Wilson's The Music Man has many passionate fans, although I am not among them. In each of the many productions I've seen, I've always found Wilson's magnum opus to be a slight work, overlong and lacking in charm, but I will concede that I am in the clear minority and maybe I'm missing something. However, I bet all but the most diehard Music Man fans would hesitate to say the show is unequivocally better than the Arthur Laurence-Leonard Bernstein-Stephen Sondheim masterpiece, one of the most important and beloved shows in the entire musical theatre cannon. West Side Story rewrote the rules for what a musical could do, the types of issues it could tackle, and integrated dance into the story better than almost any musical before or since. Almost 60 years after its premiere, it still resonates with audiences around the world as a towering achievement in dramatic storytelling.


Ragtime for Best Musical (1998)

Audra McDonald and Brian Stokes Mitchell in the near-legendary original Broadway production of Ragtime.

Actual Winner: The Lion King

To be fair, I understand why Tony voters chose The Lion King for Best Musical. Julie Taymor's eye-popping production is one of the seminal artistic achievements of the past 20 years, despite a pedestrian book and songs that range from stellar ("Circle of Life") to painful ("Chow Down"). Ragtime justifiably won Best Book and Score, which meant the only way to honor The Lion King as a whole was to give the show a Best Musical trophy. But just because I understand why the production won doesn't mean I have to agree, because Ragtime is a near-perfect show that also boasts one of the all-time great original casts. In addition to being unabashedly gorgeous musically, the show's observations about race, human nature, and the enduring spirit of the American dream make it a much richer piece that continually reveals new nuances during each subsequent production. The Lion King without Taymor's staging is just the animated film needlessly padded out; Ragtime is a moving and insightful piece no matter who is at the helm, and that is why it deserved a Best Musical win.


Kelli O'Hara in The Bridges of Madison County for Best Actress in a Musical (2014)

Kelli O'Hara in the sublime, underappreciated The Bridges of Madison County.

Actual Winner: Jessie Mueller for Beautiful

Jessie Mueller is a lovely individual who has continually proven herself both talented and versatile; she deserves a long and fruitful career filled with accolades, including a Tony Award or two. That said, she *stole* Kelli O'Hara's long deserved Best Actress statuette for what is sure to go down as one the golden-voiced soprano's greatest performances, Francesca in Jason Robert Brown's The Bridges of Madison County. Setting aside the fact that it is absolutely ludicrous the multitalented O'Hara is still Tony-less after five nominations in the past decade, her transcendent work in this sweeping musical drama was the kind of performance legends are made of. When people look back at her career many years from now, this will be the performance people won't believe she didn't win for, in the same way many people just assume Bernadette Peters won for Sunday in the Park with George (Peters lost to Chita Rivera in The Rink). The one small piece of solace to be found in this situation is that O'Hara publicly stated that if she couldn't win, she was rooting for Mueller.


Danny Burstein in Follies for Best Actor in a Musical (2012)

Danny Burstein during the transcendent "Loveland Sequence" during the most recent Broadway revival of Follies.

Actual Winner: Steve Kazee for Once

Like with O'Hara, the fact that Danny Burstein doesn't already have a Tony Award is one of the great oversights of the Tony Awards' past ten years. One of our greatest character actors, Burstein is equally at home in musicals and plays, whether they are comedic or dramatic, and Follies is arguably the greatest showcase he has ever had. Burstein took the least interesting of Sondheim's four leads and made him a fascinatingly complex and tragic character who remains unable to impress the one woman he truly loves. Burstein's performance was largely on the fringes during the musical's first act, but the one-two punch of "The Right Girl" and "The God-Why-Don't-You-Love-Me Blues" in Act II was revelatory for both the character and the production. Steve Kazee was perfectly charming (if a bit shout-y) as the lovelorn Guy in Once, but his performance was ultimately a lot less interesting and layered than Burstein's superlative work.


While I've got plenty more beef to pick with the Tony committee, my blood's starting to boil, so perhaps I should take a break for now. As stated in the intro, none of this is meant to imply that the actual winners were bad (although I really do hate The Music Man), just that the mentioned productions and performers were ultimately more deserving of Broadway's highest honor.

Willkommen Back

Review: Cabaret

Alan Cumming, reprising his Tony-winning role as the Emcee, leads the nubile denizens of the Kit Kat Klub in Roundabout's revival of Cabaret.

When Roundabout Theatre Company announced they were remounting Sam Mendes and Rob Marshall's acclaimed, Tony Award-winning production of Cabaret, the news was understandably greeted with some scepticism.  Roundabout made very clear that this would be a near exact recreation, boasting the same creative team and Tony-winning star - Alan Cumming, reprising his near-legendary performance as the Emcee - of a production that had only closed on Broadway 10 years prior.  It all sounded like a shameless cash grab, something the nation's largest non-profit was doing to finance the rest of its season rather than something born out of any artistic need or urgency.

Thankfully, while all of the above may be true, this resurrected Cabaret is a powerful interpretation of one of the undisputedly great musical dramas.  Nothing about Mendes' recreated staging feels canned or stale, and this representation of the decadent days proceeding the second World War is both highly entertaining and deeply unsettling.  This is a show with something important and downright challenging to say (an all too rare occurrence in contemporary musical theatre), and with the exception of one key piece of casting it is carried off with such artistic integrity and assurance that only a fool would begrudge Roundabout's return to the Kit Kat Klub.

For those who have never seen Cabaret, the show takes place in 1930s Berlin right before the Nazis' ascent to political dominance.  Bisexual American novelist Cliff Bradshaw moves to the city looking for inspiration for his next book, and is soon pulled into the exhilaratingly seedy world of the Kit Kat Klub, which is overseen by an otherworldly Emcee and headlined by the free spirited Sally Bowles.  Cliff and Sally move in together and begin a romance, while their landlady Fraulein Schneider is wooed by a Jewish fruit seller named Herr Schultz.  As the country's Nazi leanings become more pronounced, all of the characters are forced to decide whether to continue their carefree, pleasure-focused lives in the face of mounting political tension.

Cabaret remains a rock-solid piece of theatrical writing, featuring perhaps the finest collection of showtunes Kander and Ebb ever created during their 50-plus years of collaboration (this production has smartly incorporated several songs the pair wrote specifically for the movie, including "Mein Herr" and "Maybe This Time").  Joe Masteroff's libretto expertly juggles multiple plot threads while creating multifaceted characterizations, and the show tackles some very big issues in a way that is digestible without diminishing their importance or complexity. 

Co-directors Mendes and Marshall (who also handled choreographic duties) expertly guide the narrative with clarity and precision, nailing the juxtaposition of tones for maximum theatrical effect.  Celebrations of life's decadence such as "Willkommen" and "Two Ladies" are intoxicatingly delightful, while the scenes between Herr Schultz and Fraulein Schneider are positively charming.  But the show can turn on a dime to deeply unsettling, powerfully staged moments like "If You Could See Her," the Act I closer "Tomorrow Belongs to Me," or the show's chilling final tableau.  Mendes and Marshall make excellent use of Masteroff's book and Kander and Ebb's score to lull the audience into a false sense of complacency before springing the show's more disturbing elements on us, demonstrating just how easily anyone can be caught unawares by life's dark side.

All these years later, the Emcee remains Alan Cumming's signature role, and the Scottish actor is every bit as astounding as one could hope.  Cumming's voice remains virtually unchanged, and he exudes a carefree confidence tinged with a hint of menace.  Cumming is game for pretty much anything, from performing lewd gestures to dancing overtly sexual choreography to donning various androgynous costumes (or sometimes wearing almost nothing at all).  At first genial, Cumming becomes slowly unhinged and more antagonistic as the evening wears on, and by the time he asks, "Where are your troubles now?" during the finale, it's as much an accusation as anything else, implying that human selfishness is what allows tragedies like to Holocaust to happen.

As Fraulein Schneider and Herr Schultz, Linda Emond and Danny Burstein are close to perfection, with an easy chemistry and a gravitas that makes their relationship the heart of the show.  And while Burstein is well-known for his musical theatre chops, Emond's play-focused career has denied the world of hearing her fantastically strong voice until now.  Bill Heck acts the role of Cliff with conviction, and Aaron Krohn is excellent as Ernst Ludwig, the charming Nazi sympathizer made all the more unnerving by his utter normalcy.  The cast and ensemble (who also doubles as the orchestra) are uniformly excellent, with one very notable exception.

Unfortunately, that exception is Michelle Williams as Sally Bowles.  The Oscar-nominated actress is making her Broadway debut, and while no one can accuse her of resting on her laurels, she gives a deeply misguided and ultimately unsatisfying performance.  Probably miscast, Williams has moments of strength and a surprisingly sturdy singing voice (remember that Sally is supposed to be at best a second rate singer, a fact the movie ignored in favor of casting the excellent Liza Minelli).  But Williams' performance rings false thanks to a collection of character tics that don't really work for her.  She constantly shakes and has an entirely unplaceable accent, making it unclear whether Sally is an addled drug addict, putting on an adopted persona, on the brink of a nervous breakdown, or some combination of all three.  Whatever it is, it doesn't really click, making a character that has in previous versions been defined by her authenticity feel fake and untruthful.  It's also unclear what about this Sally makes Cliff, who as played by Heck clearly prefers men to women, stay with and ultimately fall in love with such a deeply damaged individual.

Everything and everyone around Williams is excellent, and there is plenty to recommend this revival (especially to those who missed the production the first time around).  But the role of Sally is such a pivotal one that Williams' labored performance does bring the show down a notch or two.  With another actresses in the role, this Cabaret would easily be one of the best things running on Broadway.  As is, it is still a strong production of one of the musical theatre's greatest dramatic works, an adult work just as interested in challenging the audience as it is in entertaining them. Fans of that kind of theatre should definitely head over to Studio 54 and heed Cumming's opening entreaties to "bleibe, reste, stay."

2014 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

Today marks the first round of predictions for what I call the Big 12 categories (the 4 production and 8 acting Tonys handed out each year).  The reason I call them the Big 12 is they are generally seen as the most prestigious of the various Tony awards, and are the ones that are most likely to be bragged about in marketing materials and future Playbill bios.  In short, they seem to be the awards people care about the most, perhaps because they are the easiest ones for non-industry people to assess. 

 

Now normally at this point I would say "ladies first," but the fact of the matter is that the Best Actress and Featured Actress races this year are just more interesting and exciting, so I am saving those for later.  So without further ado, let's talk about this year's Featured Actor contenders!

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Actor Mark Rylance has publicly stated he doesn't believe in the use of microphones during live theatre, probably because he gets tired of doing a mic drop after every sensational performance.

 

Nominees:  Reed Birney, Casa Valentina; Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night; Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night; Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night; Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie

The obvious choice in this category is Mark Rylance.  A two-time Tony-winner who consistently receives critical raves, Rylance's take on Twelfth Night's love-struck Olivia was the talk of the town during the fall and winter months.  Rylance, choosing to emphasize Olivia's petulance and childishness rather than her regal nature, was responsible for more laughs per minute than any other performer this season, with a performance completely supported by Shakespeare's text while still feeling fresh and original.  Rylance certainly has my vote, and for months I've been convinced that this race was his to lose.

However, the fact that two of his hilarious costars also received nominations may cause vote splitting among Tony voters trying to choose their favorite actor from that all-male production.  If too many Twelfth Night fans decide to vote for Paul Chahidi (arguably the best Maria every) or Stephen Fry (a very funny Malvolio), it may allow Brian J. Smith to sneak in a surprise win for his portrayal of the pivotal Gentleman Caller in last fall's critically lauded The Glass Menagerie.  If Casa Valentina had more momentum behind it then Reed Birney might have a chance as a dark horse candidate, but I think critical affection for both Twelfth Night and Menagerie is simply too strong for Birney to overcome.  I'm still predicting a win for Rylance, but I won't be completely shocked if Smith is called up to the podium instead.

Will and Should Win:  Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night

 

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

You ain't never had a friend like Aladdin's James Monroe Iglehart, who has been bringing the house down 8 times a week during his showstopping rendition of the Oscar-nominated "Friend Like Me." 

 

Nominees: Danny Burstein, Cabaret; Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway; Joshua Henry, Violet; James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin; Jarrod Spector, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical

This race is much closer than Featured Actor in a Play, and there are several ways I can imagine it going.  I personally would consider Jarrod Spector the least likely winner, but at the same time the Tony voters clearly have a lot of affection for Beautiful.  As a two-time nominee Joshua Henry is automatically a more competitive than he would be otherwise; being nominated twice proves that the first time wasn't a fluke, and shows Tony voters clearly respect the up and coming performer.  But I just don't think this is Henry's year, which leaves us with three equally compelling candidates.

Aladdin's James Monroe Iglehart is one of the breakout stars of this Broadway season, stopping the show nightly with his fantastic rendition of "Friend Like Me."  Scene-stealing turns do quite well in the Featured categories, and the fact that Iglehart has made the role his own after Robin Williams' iconic work in the film version is mighty impressive.  But Bullets Over Broadway's Nick Cordero has been a consistent figure in every awards race this season, and has even won a couple of the guild awards for his gangster with a heart of gold (Cordero is also the center of his own big production number).  I wouldn't be surprised if he won, but I also have to handicap him since Tony voters are clearly less enamored with Bullets than some of the other awards-granting bodies.

And then there is the reliably great Danny Burstein, a Broadway stalwart who despite 5 career nominations has yet to actually win a Tony Award.  Burstein was robbed (ROBBED!) when Once's Steve Kazee won for his merely adequate Guy over Burstein's revelatory Buddy in Follies, and there is a building consensus among the Broadway community that it's about time the hardworking Burstein got his moment in the sun.  But Tony voters are even cooler towards Cabaret than they are towards Bullets, and I fear Burstein will be passed over once again.  I will give the edge to Iglehart, but Cordero is a strong possibility as well.

Should Win:  Danny Burstein, Cabaret
Will Win:  James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin (which for the record would not be nearly as egregious as picking Kazee over Burstein in 2012)


Be sure to check back daily over the next two weeks to get all the latest Tony coverage.  Next up are the ladies competing for Best Featured Actress, followed by the Lead Actors and Actresses.  And you can catch up on the rest of my Tony coverage by checking out the links below:

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score



My Top 10 Theatre Experiences: Part 2

A few weeks ago, I started to publish a list of my Top 10 theatrical experiences of all time.  This list includes the shows that have had a profound impact on my theatre-going life, and the ones that have remained the most vivid in my memory since initially seeing them.  You can read the first article for a more thorough breakdown of the criteria I've used, but basically for a show to make the list it had to play Broadway and be solid from top to bottom (excellent star turns in mediocre shows have been left off).  And the list is alphabetical, because coming up with a numbered ranking for these 10 shows would just be too hard.

So picking up where I left off:

The Book of Mormon

Andrew Rannells and the original Broadway cast of The Book of Mormon

The Book of Mormon holds a distinction that I do not give out lightly; despite my hesitancy to rank the shows on this list, almost 3 years after my first viewing I can safely say that The Book of Mormon is the best night I've ever spent in the theatre.  The energy inside the theatre was palpable during the early March preview I attended back in 2011; though highly anticipated, the show was shrouded in secrecy.  The producers had only released four production stills, there was no video or audio available, and the program purposefully lacked a song list or even a basic scene breakdown.  None of us quite knew what we were getting into, and the experience was all the better for it.

As a huge fan of South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut (easily among my favorite films of all time), I had enormous expectations for this show, and it handily exceeded every one of them.  By the end of the opening number I was grinning from ear to ear, and soon after that I was howling with laughter.  The show was every bit as gleefully offensive as you could imagine, and crossed a couple of boundaries even I wasn't sure they were allowed to.  And yet the show was so hilarious, and more importantly so heartfelt, that it didn't matter.  The show had a soul, and a soul that not only respected but embraced the traditions of the glitzy book musicals of days past.  There are rousing production numbers, comic duets, and second act power ballads that manage to both gently mock the absurdity of such things while at the same time being excellent examples of those troupes.

Simply put, The Book of Mormon is one of the best constructed musicals of the new millennium, as well as one of the funniest.  But what made this experience truly transcendent for me was the absolutely extraordinary original cast.  Everyone, from the principals to the ensemble members, was an extremely talented triple threat with spot-on comic timing and amazing chemistry.  While Josh Gad was rightly praised for his scenery chewing turn as the hopelessly awkward Elder Cunningham, I think Andrew Rannells' supremely smug Elder Price was the show's true revelation.  Rannells managed to play straight man to Gad's comic genius while remaining hilarious in his own right, and turned what could have been a thoroughly off-putting character into a beacon of charisma and old-school showmanship.  (Also, Rannells' pop-tenor is nearly flawless.)  Tony-winner Nikki M. James provided the show's heart and soul as Ugandan tribeswoman Nabalungi, and Rory O'Malley led one of this decade's great production numbers with his showstopping "Turn It Off" (which incidentally includes my favorite sight gag in the entire show, and one that made me audibly gasp in delight when I first saw it).

The Book of Mormon is rightfully one of the hottest tickets in town, commanding upwards of $450 per ticket for the premium seats.  It is the only show running I would even consider paying that much money for, and I will continue to recommend it to any and everyone who will listen.

Follies (2011 Revival)

The "Loveland" sequence from the 2011 revival of Follies

Stephen Sondheim's utter mastery of the musical theatre form is sometimes taken for granted, and I often call him the Shakespeare of the musical stage.  Like the Bard, Sondheim's works have the remarkable ability to reveal new facets of meaning with each subsequent viewing, and have proven able to withstand a wide array of reimaginings and concept-based stagings.  But sometimes, as the breathtaking 2011 revival of Follies proved, all you need is to do the show the way it was written.  Grandly opulent and utterly heartbreaking, this revival took a show I had always found intriguing and skyrocketed it up my personal list to the point where I consider it one of the finest musicals ever created.

The show, centered around the reunion of the last remaining performers of a Ziegfeld Follies-esque spectacle, is simultaneously about nothing and everything.  There is very little plot, and yet over the course of the evening the show manages to make deeply poignant observations about growing older and regret while still celebrating the vast amount of beauty to be found in life.  Sondheim's score is a parade of pastiches that include some of the greatest ballads ever written, including cabaret standards like "I'm Still Here" and "Losing My Mind."  The most expensive musical ever produced at the time of its original premiere, Follies requires an elaborate physical production and enormous cast, and this revival hit both of those elements out of the park.

Bernadette Peters' performance as Sally Durante-Plummer is probably one of the more divisive in recent Broadway history; I personally loved her, and found her character's slow unraveling to be a fascinating portrait of the cost of unmet ambitions.  But nobody could argue with the stunning brilliance of her onstage husband Danny Burstein, who was a revelation as Buddy Plummer and robbed (ROBBED!) of a justly deserved Tony Award.  And Jan Maxwell's pitch-perfect embodiment of the jaded, bitter Phyllis Rogers-Stone was such a masterclass in musical theatre acting that I can still vividly recall her two big numbers ("Could I Leave You?" and "The Story of Lucy and Jessie").  The only reason I am okay with her not winning a long-overdue Tony is because that year's victor was Audra McDonald for Porgy and Bess, which was one step beyond perfection.

Finally, Follies has what may be one of the most thrilling theatrical climaxes of any musical I've ever seen.  Watching the main quartet of characters finally reach their breaking point, triggering the 20-minute long "Loveland" sequence in which each character is deconstructed in an elaborately-staged Follies-style production umber, had me on the edge of my seat in the way few shows ever had.  I can still see that initial reveal, with the downstage drop curtain falling to floor to reveal the dazzling Loveland set, as if it had happened this morning.


That's enough for today.  Hopefully I will be a little more regular on the blog postings, but even if it takes a while I promise the rest of this list is coming!

2012 Tony Predictions - Best Actor

Here we are at the end of the acting categories.  Before I start making Best Actor predictions, I want to remind you of my two caveats:  1) I have not necessarily seen all of the nominees; and 2) I am prediction who will win, which is not always the same as who should win.

Best Actor in a Play

Nominees:  James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman; James Earl Jones, The Best Man; Frank Langella, Man and Boy; John Lithgow, The Columnist

I don’t mean to sound disrespectful of their work, but as far as this season is concerned past winners James Earl Jones, Frank Langella, and John Lithgow are essentially also-rans in a two person Tony race.  Jones received solid reviews for his work in The Best Man, but that show is more of an ensemble piece than a star vehicle, and having a star vehicle is a virtual prerequisite to winning the Best Actor trophy.  Langella’s Man and Boy definitely qualifies as a star vehicle, but outside of his performance the production was dismissed by critics.  It also closed by mid-October and hasn’t been discussed since, leaving Langella without the necessary momentum needed to secure a Tony statuette.

John Lithgow is in a better position than either Jones or Langella, in that The Columnist is a currently-running star vehicle from a well-respected author.  Unfortunately, the deluge of late-April openings resulted in The Columnist getting lost in the shuffle, and many found the play to be serviceable but disappointing given the talent involved (Lithgow is a past Tony winner, and playwright David Auburn is a Tony and Pulitzer Prize winner).

That leaves us with James Corden and Phillip Seymour Hoffman, both of whom have a lot going in their favor.  One Man, Two Guvnors seems to be this season’s British Sensation, the imported new play that has critics practically falling over themselves to praise it.  Corden himself has received plenty of accolades his physically demanding performance, and recent Tony history shows a strong voter bias toward English-bred actors.  However, that same history also shows a bias towards big name Hollywood talent in revivals of classic plays, which perfectly describes Hoffman.  Death of a Salesman is one of the most critically and commercially successful productions of the season, something that couldn’t have been achieved without a commanding central performance.  While I haven’t personally seen Corden, I have trouble imagining him topping Hoffman’s devastating turn in Arthur Miller’s classic, and I suspect Tony voters will feel the same way.

Will and Should Win:  Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman

Best Actor in a Musical

Nominees:  Danny Burstein, Follies; Jeremy Jordan, Newsies; Steve Kazee, Once; Norm Lewis, Porgy and Bess; Rob Raines, Follies

Unlike their play counterparts, the Best Actor in a Musical nominees are much more evenly matched.  There isn’t a clear-cut front runner, and an argument could be made for any of these fine actors to win the big prize. All of that said, I think we can safely rule out both Norm Lewis and Rob Raines.  I have always felt Lewis’ abilities as an actor have been underrated, and I’m happy to see him receive his first Tony nomination for his accomplished work in Porgy and Bess.  That said, his is by no means the strongest performance of the bunch, and he’s greatly overshadowed by costar Audra McDonald, who from day one has been at the center of all that particular revival’s press coverage. 

Similarly, while Rob Raines did some excellent work in Follies, it did not reach the giddy heights of his costar and fellow nominee Danny Burstein.  Unlike last year, when Andrew Rannells and Josh Gad were so equally matched in The Book of Mormon that they effectively canceled one another out, popular opinion has clearly favored Burstein over Raines.  Anyone who wants to see a Follies win in this category will certainly vote for Burstein.

Jeremy Jordan is technically nominated for Newsies, but I think it’s safe to assume his is a blanket nomination for both that show and his work earlier this season as one of the title characters in Bonnie & Clyde.  Jordan is the hot young talent of the season, and though his work in Newsies isn’t as psychologically complex or emotionally mature as his competition, it is everything you could reasonably expect in a lighthearted show whose sole purpose is to entertain.  The road producers who usually vote for more commercially viable fare will want to ensure Newsies ends up with enough wins to sound impressive in an ad campaign, and Jordan could easily reap the benefits of their Tony love.

Steve Kazee is something of a wildcard.  On the one hand, he is giving a very moving performance in the most critically lauded new musical of the season, and the buzz around Once certainly isn’t hurting his chances.  On the other, for whatever reason the critical love of Once doesn’t quite extend into recognition for its cast (Kazee and costar Cristin Milioti were both conspicuously absent from the Drama Desk nominee list).  Because it is a new work and not a known property, I think some people are overlooking how much of the show’s success is due to its leads, instead of being wholly generated by the very strong book and score. 

I’d say the two gentlemen most likely to hear their name called on Tony night are Danny Burstein and Jeremy Jordan.  Burstein deserves the award for his revelatory and heart-breaking performance in Follies, a production the entire theatrical community went gaga over last fall and will certainly want to see recognized.  Burstein’s role is the hardest of the show’s central quartet to make interesting, making it all the more impressive that he ended up being one of the best parts of that much celebrated production.  But Jeremy Jordan has had a star-is-born season, and the Tonys love to celebrate talented newcomers as much as seasoned pros.  As much as I loved Burstein (I've been saying he needs to win this award since September), I am starting to suspect that this is Jordan's year.

Will Win:  Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
Should Win:  Danny Burstein, Follies

That’s all for the acting awards.  The only predictions I have left to make are the production categories, so look for my picks for the season’s best revivals soon!

In the meantime, here are the rest of my Tony prediction articles in case you missed them:

Best Actress

Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

Tony Watch: Assessing the Fall Season Part 1

One lady who should really start shopping for her Tony night gown

It’s never too early to talk about the Tony Awards.  Ever.  Hell, sometimes it can be more fun to discuss them months in advance, when almost any prediction is pure speculation.  And while I won’t go so far as discussing productions and performances that have yet to open, I thought this mid-winter lull was the perfect time to reflect on those shows that have already opened.  So read on for my completely biased, 100% speculative opinion on who is and isn’t a contender for a nomination this year.

Let’s start at the very beginning (a very good place to start, I’m told), and run through this year’s Broadway shows in chronological order:

Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark

In a turn of events that positively sickens me, this show is actually in a good position to score some Tony love.  This is not due to any actual merit in the production (it’s terrible, and earned my Worst of 2011 award), but because of Tony politics.  You see, a large number of Tony voters are producers, either for Broadway or touring houses, and they tend to favor shows with wide commercial appeal.  Having awards to brag about helps with advertising, and a Best Musical win has been proven to boast almost any show’s box office.  With an average of $1.5 million in weekly grosses, Spider-Man’s definitely has monetary appeal, and it’s the only new musical still running after this fall’s flops.  Since none of the new musicals this spring are surefire critical or commercial hits, Spider-Man could end up with a Best Musical nod, further signifying that the Mayans were right about the world ending this year.

On the positive side, I can’t imagine it scoring any writing nominations (it is much easier for a short-lived show to get nominated in the Score and Book categories).  And while I found the design aspects of the production disappointing given the amount of money and hype involved with the show, I wouldn’t be offended to see it nominated for Scenic or Costume Design.  And since the Best Supporting Actor in a Musical category is pretty slim pickings thus far, Patrick Page could find himself nominated for being easily the show’s strongest asset.

Master Class

Yes, this show happened.  It even got pretty good reviews.  But it closed so long ago, and there are many more plays opening between now and Tony time.  It may manage to make it onto the Best Play Revival list, and leading lady Tyne Daly could conceivable get a Best Actress nomination.  But with so many plays premiering this season, such recognition seems unlikely.

Follies

Follies will be a major presence at this year’s Tony Awards.  That isn’t mere speculation, it’s fact.  The toast of the fall season and an event musical for the Broadway community, there was such overwhelming love of both the show and this production in particular that I can’t imagine it not getting a bevy of nominations.  It’s a lock for Best Revival, leaving only three slots up for grabs in that category.  It will also end up in one or more design categories (if it only gets one design nod, my money is on the costumes).  For so expertly realizing such a tricky piece, director Eric Schaeffer really deserves a directing nod, and “Who’s That Woman” (the mirror number) should be enough to net Warren Carlyle a Best Choreography nomination on its own.

Oddly enough, the show’s greatest potential of being snubbed comes in the acting categories.  With such a uniformly excellent cast, and many of them competing against one another, someone will surely get overlooked.  Of the four leads, I would say Rob Raines is the weakest, and he was still wonderful.  Although I would never underestimate the Broadway community’s love of Bernadette Peters, her take on Sally has proven oddly divisive and may keep her from being a strong contender in a year when Best Actress in a Musical is likely to be a bloodbath (we’ll see why a bit later).

However, there are two performers who so deserve acting recognition that if either one is omitted, you can expect a lengthy blog entry from me decrying how wrong the Tony voters got it.  Jan Maxwell was utterly sensational as Phyllis, and if her universally praised performance doesn’t warrant one of the five Best Actress slots I don’t know what does.  And Danny Burstein, who was positively revelatory as Buddy Plummer, is not only a shoe-in for a Best Actor nomination, but at this early date is the man to beat.

Man and Boy

Did you remember that this early fall revival even happened?  Probably not, which tells you just about everything you need to know as far as its Tony chances are concerned.  Three-time Tony-winner Frank Langella is so adored by critics that he may end up with a Best Actor nomination, but that is Man and Boy’s only shot at Tony gold.

The Mountaintop

This show disappointed a lot of people, and will pay for it come Tony time.  After receiving a lot of critical accolades during its London run and securing two genuine movie stars for its US premiere, this new drama underwhelmed most critics.  Samuel L. Jackson and Angela Bassett got good but not great reviews, and the entire enterprise seems to have been damned by faint praise.  If the show had opened in the spring it would be more of a contender, but with the amount of competition this year it may be completely shut out.

There’s plenty more Tony chatter where this came from, but given the short attention spans of internet readers, I’ve probably already lost you.  The rest will have to wait for another day, while I spend the rest of this week trying to figure out what the hell a Superbowl is.