The time has come.
With a little over two weeks left until the Tony Awards ceremony on June
10th, it’s time for me to get out my crystal ball and predict who
will be the winners and losers on Broadway’s big night. But before I start prognosticating,
let me mention a couple of caveats:
1) I haven’t actually seen all of the nominated productions,
as I ran out of time and money long before I ran out of shows to see. But given my 82% success rate in predicting
the nominees, I think it’s safe to say I have some idea what I’m talking about.
2) These are my predictions of who will win, not who should win,
which is an important distinction to make.
Like any entertainment award, a fair amount of politics comes into play
when determining the winners, especially when a large number of Tony voters are
producers themselves and therefore biased.
Which is why in every category, I will pick the nominee who will win and
also point out the person I think should win, which is not necessarily the same
individual. Any discrepancies will be
addressed in the body of the article.
Now that we’ve laid out the ground rules, let’s get started!
Best Choreography
Nominees:
Rob Ashford, Evita; Christopher
Gattelli, Newsies; Steven Hoggett, Once; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It
The chances
of Evita winning a Best Choreography
Tony are almost zero, despite some stunning dance sequences that managed to convert
this Rob Ashford naysayer into a fan.
The overall production and especially its star were simply too
disappointing to too many people. And
while certainly innovative and theatrical, I don’t see Steven Hoggett’s work on
Once triumphing over the “real”
dancing in the other nominated shows (that show’s playbill credits him with “movement”
rather than full-fledged “choreography).
Kathleen
Marshall has won this award three times before, most recently for the still
running Anything Goes, which
automatically makes her a major contender. In my opinion, she is one of the most
consistent and creative choreographers working today, and her musical staging
for Nice Work is the only thing about
that particular show which isn’t imminently predictable. But her recent win combined with the lack of
a true showstopper in Nice Work’s –
nothing in it comes close to the heights achieved by her “Anything Goes” or
“Blow, Gabriel, Blow” – could lead voters to give someone else a moment in the
limelight.
That someone
would be Christopher Gattelli and his work on Newsies. The one thing
against him is the fact that while superbly executed, a lot of the choreography
lacks innovation. Most of the routines
look like combinations you would find in an admittedly advanced jazz class, a
problem which kept Memphis from even
being nominated two years ago. But the
Tony committee will surely want to give Newsies
some recognition for becoming one of the spring’s biggest success stories, and
I predict two-time Tony nominee Christopher Gattelli will become Tony-winner
Christopher Gattelli on June 10th.
Will Win: Christopher Gattelli
Should Win:
Kathleen Marshall
Best Direction of a Play
Nominees:
Nicholas Hytner (One Man, Two
Guvnors); Pam MacKinnon (ClybournePark); Mike Nichols (Death of a Salesman); Roger Rees and Alex Timbers (Peter
and the Starcatcher)
After years
of Broadway being dominated by British imports, I think the Tony voters are
going to finally start rewarding Americans for their contributions to the
legitimate theatre. Which means Nicholas
Hytner and his work on One Man, Two
Guvnors is out. I must also
disqualify Pam MacKinnon, as I think most of the credit for that show’s success
is being given to Bruce Norris’ script and its stellar acting ensemble.
Which leaves
Mike Nichols and the combined talents of Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, all of
whom were integral to the success of their respective shows. Death
of a Salesman is an acknowledged classic, but Nichols’ direction makes the
entire production gel in a way that justifies the existence of this latest
revival. While everyone recognizes that
the inventive staging has been the key to Peter
and the Starcatcher’s success, I have to give the edge to Nichols. He is an industry giant who commands an
enormous amount of respect (see his seven previous Best Direction Tonys as
proof), Salesman has become one of
the theatrical events of the spring. Rees
and Timbers could score an upset, but I find it highly unlikely.
Will & Should Win: Mike Nichols
Best Direction of a Musical
Nominees:
Jeff Calhoun, Newsies;
Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can
Get It; Diane Paulus, Porgy and Bess;
John Tiffany, Once
If Newsies had opened in April instead of
March, I would be predicting a virtual sweep for Disney’s tale of dancing
newsboys, but just enough time has passed for the theatrical community to
realize that for all of its merits, there is simply better work being done this
year. Direction awards tend to be higher-minded
than some of the other categories, and Newsies
simply isn’t up to that standard.
Similarly, Marshall’s serviceable job on Nice Work is by no means her best, and for a woman more respected
as a choreographer than a director it simply isn’t enough to net her a Best
Director trophy.
John Tiffany
is the clear front runner here. Once is the most nominated production of
the season, and also the most artistically daring. Without the delicately realized mood and
pacing provided by Tiffany’s direction, Once
would collapse under the weight of its own ambitions, instead of emerging
as arguably the best new musical of the season.
I think
Diane Paulus has done sensational work on Porgy,
and few directors have her gift of making the stagecraft behind the
blocking seem so completely organic. She
has successfully brought the show into the 21st century, and made a
classic opera seem real and immediate in a way I would not have thought
possible. Unfortunately for Paulus,
there are enough purists who cannot accept Porgy
as anything other than a 4-hour opera, and while I loved her interpretation
I can understand why some people would feel that way. For a production whose Broadway prospects
were once in question – thanks to that infamous letter from Mr. Sondheim –
Paulus should consider her inclusion among this year’s nominees a victory in
itself. Without the burden of
preconceived notions, Tiffany was free to do whatever he wished with Once, and the results are totally transfixing
and definitely Tony worthy.
Will & Should Win: John Tiffany (although Paulus is a very close
second)
That’s it
for now, but check back throughout the next two weeks for more of my 2012 Tony
predictions!
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