Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 7

Matthew Broderick and the cast of Nice Work If You Can Get It celebrate their Best Musical Tony nominaton.

We’re in the home stretch of the spring season.  Only five more shows to discuss before next week’s Tony nominations, and they are:

The Lyons

When Tony Award winner Linda Lavin passed on the Broadway transfers of both Follies and Other Desert Cities in order to play the lead role in The Lyons, she raised quite a few industry eyebrows.  But something about the script for this Off-Broadway premiere – which at the time had no intention of transferring – caught her eye, and in hindsight it’s clear Lavin knew what she was doing.  The play’s strong reviews prompted a late season Broadway transfer, where it again opened to much critical praise for the play as a whole and Lavin’s performance in particular.

It will be interesting to see just how far The Lyons can infiltrate the Tony Awards in this very crowded season.  Its transfer to Broadway has been entirely merit-based, and opening just before the Tony eligibility cutoff date ensures it is fresh in everyone’s minds.  Will that be enough to net the work a Best Play nomination against its higher profile competition?  It just might be. 

Lavin is in a very strong position to secure a Best Actress nomination, and some of her costars may even join her for the ride.  Fellow Tony-winner Dick Latessa is well-respected in the theatrical community and giving another critically praised performance, and the young Michael Esper is so strong in the show that he’s managed to stand out next to such industry heavyweights.  Neither performer can be ruled out of the Supporting Actor race, and The Lyons could well end up being the Little Show That Could.

Nice Work If You Can Get It

One of the biggest question marks heading into the spring season was the “new” Gershwin musical Nice Work If You Can Get It.  A thorough reworking of Oh Kay, one of George and Ira’s lesser known musicals, Nice Work sports a cast and creative team with plenty of Tony pedigree.  Both of its stars have multiple Tony nominations to their name, and director/choreographer Kathleen Marshall is still riding high on the success of last season’s hit Anything Goes.  Yet the show received little pre-opening press or buzz, with many taking the lack of info as a sign that the show was on the road to disaster.

But now the show has opened to good if not great reviews, and more importantly has performed quite strongly in New York’s other theatrical contests like the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards.  Like The Lyons, being so new has certainly helped Nice Work in this area, and all that momentum makes the show a serious Tony contender.  I predict it will indeed manage to nab one of the four coveted Best Musical nominations, a major victory for a show no one was even talking about a month ago.

Other all-but-guaranteed nominations: leading lady Kelli O’Hara for Best Actress and Kathleen Marshall for Best Choreography (and possibly Best Direction), as the latter is definitely working within her wheelhouse here.  Another likely nominee is Judy Kaye for her scene stealing comic turn, and while his lukewarm reviews aren’t very encouraging, Matthew Broderick cannot be completely ruled out of the Best Actor race.  And I expect one or more of the show’s design elements to get nominated, with Martin Pakledinaz’s flapper era costumes a particularly strong contender.

The Columnist

This new play from Manhattan Theatre Club certainly has a Tony-worthy pedigree.  Written by Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright David Auburn (Proof) and directed by Tony-winning director Daniel Sullivan (also Proof, as well as last season’s Merchant of Venice), the show stars multiple Tony winner John Lithgow as a 1960s era newspaper columnist named Joseph Alsop.  Unfortunately, The Columnist seems to have been lost among the plethora of shows that have opened in the past two weeks, and I don’t foresee it being much of a contender for this year’s awards.

Don’t Dress for Dinner

Hopefully Roundabout will finally learn a lesson after their extremely anemic offerings this season.  They need to stop producing subpar Broadway revivals of plays no one has heard of or cares about.  With tens of thousands of existing plays to choose from, not to mention the thousands more awaiting a first production, there’s no excuse for Roundabout to continually pick such poor material.  Don’t Dress for Dinner has earned some of the worst reviews of the spring, and the best it can hope for is to finish out its limited run without a premature closing.

Leap of Faith

An extremely last minute addition to the Broadway season facilitated by the closing of the Harry Connick Jr. bomb On a Clear Day, the new musical Leap of Faith ended the Broadway season on a whimper.  Critically reviled, I can’t imagine Faith ended up among this year’s Best Musical nominees, even with such weak competition.  The score by perpetual Tony bridesmaid Alan Menken has a better chance at a nomination, especially since it was just announced that the score for Once will be ineligible since it was written for the movie and not specifically for the stage.

Since by all accounts the libretto for Faith is one of the show’s primary problems, I’m ruling it out of the Best Book category, which leaves Raul Esparza as the only other real chance the show has at some Tony love.  And even then, it’s entirely possible that the four-time Tony nominee will find himself excluded from the Best Actor race due to the poor quality of his star vehicle.

And that, ladies and gentleman, brings us to the official end of the 2011-2012 Broadway season!  Be sure to check back on Tuesday when the Tony Award nominations are announced to see how I did with my predictions, and look for further Tony chatter throughout the month of May leading up to the big night on June 10^th.  I can’t wait to talk more, and I hope you’ll join me for the ride.

And in case you missed my previous Tony Watch articles, you can catch up on them here:

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Part 6

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 6

I'm sure the play is very good, but if that's what the house in Clybourne Park looks like, I'm not sure why anyone would want to move into it.

Magic/Bird

From the same team behind last year’s Lombardi, this play about the rivalry between NBA stars Magic Johnson and Larry Bird seems destined to be an also-ran in a season so packed with new works.  With less enthusiastic reviews than Lombardi (which wasn’t exactly embraced by critics to begin with) and lacking a critical darling like Judith Light to raise its profile, Magic/Bird simply won’t be among this year’s Tony nominees.

Peter and the Starcatcher

Peter and the Starcatcher, a prequel to Peter Pan, is the essence of an Off-Broadway show.  Relying more on a gifted ensemble and strong script than grand spectacle, this play is by all accounts quirky, inventive, and creatively staged in a way that emphasizes old-fashioned stagecraft over flashy technology.  Like last season’s Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson, Starcatcher was well reviewed Off-Broadway and similarly praised after its move uptown.  I also predict that it will be similarly ignored by the Tony voters, with the exception of one or two acting nominations.

This has less to do with quality and is more a reflection of Tony politics and preferences.  The voters tend to prefer their plays be high-minded adult dramas rather than family shows, and with so many of the former on the boards this season I don’t see Starcatcher cracking the more competitive categories like Best Play or Best Direction.  I do think Christian Borle’s scene-stealing turn as Black Stache makes him a definite contender for some Best Supporting Actor love, and in such a crowded season for new plays even one Tony nomination is a definite accomplishment.

One Man, Two Guvnors

Quite honestly, I am over the recent trend of West End transfers coming to Broadway and sweeping the Tony Awards.  While there is definitely quality in the execution of these productions, I have found many of them to be overrated, as if the New York theatrical community has so deeply absorbed the idea that the English are better actors than we are that they blindly endorse anything with a British pedigree.

But with so many strong American productions on Broadway this year, I think that trend will finally be broken.  While this farce it could find itself the token British Best Play nominee (there’s always at least one), it is by no means assured a place at the table, given the already mentioned Tony preference for drama over farce.  All that said, even the most jaded theatregoer would have trouble justifying the exclusion of leading man James Corden from the Best Actor category, thanks to his virtuosic performance in such a physically demanding role.

Clybourne Park

This play has Tony bait written all over it.  It is a contemporary drama (or dark comedy, depending on who you ask) that tackles a serious issue (race) with intelligence and a roundly praised acting ensemble, Clybourne Park also has the distinction of being last year’s winner of the Pulitzer Prize for Drama.  In a tough category, that makes the show as close to a guaranteed Best Play nominee as there is this year.

The quality of the acting ensemble will either net the show a boatload of nominations or cancel one another out.  Of all the Tony categories, the acting nominations tend to be the most merit based, but it still helps if a performer is one of the best parts of their respected show.  When everyone is amazing, it sometimes results in no one getting nominated due to vote splitting.  The Best Direction of a Play category is so ridiculously competitive that I’ve given up trying to predict it, although anyone who can coax this many stellar performances out of a group of actors is certainly in the running.

A Streetcar Named Desire

Working on this iconic Tennessee Williams play is both a blessing and a curse.  On the one hand, the script is widely recognized as one of the greatest American plays ever written, with such layered characterizations and universal themes that it’s a veritable gold mine for serious dramatic actors.  However, the play is so well known that most critics have very specific ideas on how it should be handled, and the iconic characters have been played by some of the greatest actors who have ever lived, which makes living up to audience expectations for the work almost impossible.

It seems that this production, like most Streetcar revivals, didn’t fully satisfy critics.  Its inclusion among any of the Tony categories is a complete toss-up.  The strength of the material may get it included among the Best Revival nominees, but the apparent mishandling of that material could also keep it out of contention.  The lead actors all have roles that Tony voters gravitate toward, but it doesn’t sound like any of them have earned the right to join the prestigious company of confirmed greats like Jessica Tandy or Marlon Brando.  And who knows how Tony voters will react to director Emily Mann’s vision of an ethnically diverse production, given how much Williams’ plays rely on their Old South milieu for their themes and characterizations.  Some may feel casting black actors revealed new shades of meaning in this oft-studied work, but others may decide that race has little bearing on the material and is in essence stunt casting (this latter sentiment kept the recent all-black Cat on a Hot Tin Roof from being more of an awards contender).

Ghost the Musical

In a normal season, the critically lambasted Ghost would be such a long shot at any kind of award nominations that discussing it would be a waste of time.  But this is not a normal season, and given the lack of a Book of Mormon-esque critical and commercial success, anything could happen.  I personally don’t think Ghost can secure a Best Musical slot, but then again, I am predicting the absolutely atrocious Spider-Man (which I named the Worst Show of 2011) will be nominated in that very category due to weak competition and Tony politics.  Since the chances of Ghost actually being worse than that train wreck are infinitesimally small, perhaps Ghost stands a chance.

Which also means it could wind up among the Best Book and Score nominees, although I again doubt this will actually happen.  Ghost has not accumulated the industry clout that Spider-Man somehow has, and seemingly lacks the latter show’s mass commercial appeal.  The bland lead actors are also out of luck, as looking pretty and singing well thankfully isn’t quite enough to earn someone a Tony nomination.  Depending on how well Da’Vine Joy Randolph plays up the Sassy Black Woman archetype, she may find herself among the Best Supporting Actress nominees, although her chances of winning are currently next to nothing.  And even though it broke down on the night most critics reviewed the show, Ghost’s set could prove dazzling enough from a technical standpoint to get nominated.

Just one more article to go and we’ll have officially touched on every Broadway production that has opened during this busy season.  Look for it to go live soon!

To read my previous Tony Watch articles, look here:

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 5

Broadway's Newsies prepared to karate kick the competition, thus ensuring it's place as King of New York

With only one week left before Tony nominations come out, we have to move right along with our assessment of this season’s shows.  First up:

Newsies

Disney claims that it never intended to bring Newsies to Broadway, and that they are just blown away by the support their show has received.  I think that’s bullshit, and is part of their clever plan to position the show as this season’s Tony underdog when it is actually the odds-on favorite. 

After all, the show has all the hallmarks of a Best Musical winner (a category it will assuredly be nominated in).  It’s an old-fashioned song and dance spectacle with just enough depth to keep adults engaged while omitting anything truly challenging or unpleasant, making it perfect family fare.  The Tony voters who are also producers of regional touring houses – a sizeable contingent of the total voting body – will want to capitalize on this appeal by awarding the show with as many statuettes as possible, allowing them to advertise the eventual tour as the “Tony-winning Broadway musical” and ensuring that it makes them a boatload of money.

If Once is this year’s Critics’ Darling, Newsies is the clear Commercial Success, which more often than not wins the big awards.  And while Newsies is in no way groundbreaking, it is constructed with enough competence to net Best Book and Best Score nominations among this year’s weak crop of new shows.  Christopher Gattelli’s athletic choreography, the production’s highlight, will surely be nominated and heavily featured during the show’s Tony telecast performance.  Another likely nominee is Tobin Ost’s for his multi-tiered set, inventively configured into an endless array of interconnected platforms and stairways over the course of the show.

The acting categories will be tougher for Newsies to crack, with one notable exception, whose name is Jeremy Jordan.  As newsboy Jack Kelly, Jordan is delivering a star-making turn that definitely land the gifted young performer a Best Actor nomination.  His onstage love interest, Kara Lindsay, would be wise to take a page from Nikki M. James’ book and submit herself in the supporting category, allowing her to avoid directly competing with Tony favorites like Audra McDonald and Kelli O’Hara.  If she does go the supporting route, her charming work should be enough to net this Broadway newcomer a Best Actress nomination, further strengthening the show’s real life Cinderella narrative.

The Best Man

This show’s Tony prospects are difficult to pin down.  Although many reviewers admitted the play’s subject matter remains topical, the consensus seems to be that we didn’t really need another revival of this work having just seen a production back in 2000.  In a crowded year for plays, that could be enough to knock the show out of the Best Revival race.

On the other hand, most critics jumped at the chance to see so many theatrical tyrants in one place, regardless of the quality of the material.  Any opportunity to see greats like Angela Lansbury and James Earl Jones practice their craft is cause for celebration, and the excitement of having them back onstage could lift the show into contention for the big prize.  Lansbury and Jones, both of whom have multiple Tonys to their name, will surely be nominated again in the Supporting categories.  And in such a busy season, two high profile nominations is nothing to be ashamed of.

End of the Rainbow

By all accounts, this play about the final months of Judy Garland’s life is nothing special, at least from a scripting standpoint.  Despite the Tonys’ love for all things British (this production comes straight from the West End), I think that disappointment is enough to keep End of the Rainbow out of the Best Play or Direction categories.  But from the time it was announced, this show has clearly existed only to highlight the extraordinary talents of star Tracie Bennett, who has generated the kind of raves most actors only dream about.  An assured Best Actress nominee, I think Bennett and her producers will be just fine with their single nomination.

Evita

Broadway was clearly ready for the return of Eva Peron.  Evita is currently doing stellar business at the Marquis Theatre, routinely landing among the top grossing Broadway shows alongside established mega-hits like Wicked and The Book of Mormon.  Critical reaction to the show proved mixed, although there were generally more positives than negatives, with Evita being deemed one of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s better works.  That should be enough, when combined with the show’s clear commercial potential, to earn it one of the coveted Best Musical Revival slots.

Leading lady Elena Roger is an awards conundrum.  Before the show opened, she seemed like a shoe-in for a Best Actress nomination; her performance was critically heralded in London, and Eva is certainly the kind of role that earns you awards consideration.  Unfortunately, Roger really isn’t up to the vocal demands of the role (more than one reviewer compared her singing unfavorably to Patti LuPone’s iconic belting), although she does have some lovely character moments.  I’m not ready to give Roger’s Best Actress nomination to someone else, although if her name isn’t among those called next Tuesday I won’t be terribly surprised.

Michael Grandage deserves a Best Director nomination for his expert staging of the piece, which unlike Roger did manage to avoid comparisons to the Broadway original.  And choreographer Rob Ashford has been nominated for much worse work than his work here, and a Best Choreography nod would be an excellent way to recognize its strengths.  Given the amount of money spent on this revival, the Sets, Lights, and Costumes are all viable contenders for nomination slots as well, as expensive physical productions always do well in those categories.  And finally, the always reliable Michael Cerveris will hopefully be rewarded with a Best Supporting Actor nomination for his excellent portrayal of Juan Peron, a role that would be utterly forgettable in a lesser actor’s hands.

Be sure to check back throughout the rest of this week for more Tony talk, and then again after May 1^st to hear my reaction to the big day.

For more a look at the other shows that opened this season and where they stand in the Tony rankings, check out these past articles.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 4

Steve Kazee and Cristin Milioti in Once

There are so many shows opening these days on the Great White Way, I don’t even have time to come up with a pithy opening paragraph.  Picking up right where I left out, let’s talk about the Tony nomination prospects for:

The Road to Mecca

This has not been the best season for the Roundabout Theatre Company.  The once-mighty non-profit has overindulged in its habit of producing merely adequate revivals of merely adequate plays, trapping well-respected theatrical talent in productions that are frankly beneath them.  The Road to Mecca has done nothing to change that trend, and will likely be forgotten by all of the major awards-granting bodies.

Wit

Manhattan Theatre Club, on the other hand, continues to win over both critics and audiences with highly praised revivals of acknowledged classics in addition to their adventurous new works.  The first Broadway production of the Pulitzer Prize-winning Wit will certainly be among this year’s Best Revival nominees, and MTC’s artistic director Lynne Meadow is a contender for the Best Direction award as well.  Cynthia Nixon’s universally praised star turn makes her a shoe-in for a Best Actress nomination, although winning said award will be a much trickier feat.  On both the musical and play fronts, there has been spectacular work from Broadway’s leading ladies this season, and the Best Actress races are shaping up to be two of the most exciting and unpredictable of the this year’s awards.

Shatner’s World: We Just Live In It

This one man show’s run was so brief that even if the Best Theatrical Event Tony still existed, William Shatner might not qualify for it.  Without that category to compete in, this show doesn’t stand a chance.

Death of a Salesman

Take an undisputed theatrical classic, add an unmistakably talented Oscar winner in the lead role, mix well, and you have one of the event shows of the spring.  One of several Pulitzer Prize winners to grace Broadway this season, Salesman is top tier material, and this revival has been embraced by the entire theatrical community.  Although he is about 20 years too young for the role, audiences have been entranced by Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s searing portrayal of the doomed Willy Loman, and Tony voters will surely follow suit by granting him a Best Actor nomination.

But Hoffman isn’t the only thing critics are raving about in this Salesman.  It scored high marks across the board, making it a contender in several of the big categories and an assured Best Revival nominee.  Of the actors, Linda Emond stands the best chance of being nominated alongside Hoffman for her portrayal of Willy’s wife (also named Linda), but the supporting cast can’t be counted out.  With seven Tony Awards for direction already to his name, Mike Nichols is in as good a position as anyone to snag one of the five hotly contested Best Director nominations, and if it wasn’t a reproduction of the original 1949 design and therefore ineligible, the much-ballyhooed scenic design would be a contender as well.

Once

In recent years, the Best Musical race has invariably come down to a competition between the slickly realized Commercial Success and the artistically daring Critics’ Darling.  Once will surely be this season’s representative of the latter category, putting it in the company of shows like The Scottsboro Boys, Fela!, and Next to Normal that have all attempted to take down their more mass-market competition.  The good news for Once is that the Critics’ Darling always winds up with a host of Tony nominations; the bad news is that it tends to lose out in the major categories.

Once will surely be nominated for Best Musical, Best Book, and Best Score, by virtue of its strong reviews and weak competition.  It even stands a good chance of winning the latter two awards, although a Best Musical victory is something of a long shot due to Tony politics best dealt with at a later date.  By virtue of starring in one of the season’s best reviewed musicals, lead performers Steve Kazee and Cristin Milioti cannot be counted out of the acting races, although Kazee is more likely to actually score recognition than Milioti, whose category is shaping up to be a bloodbath.

Jesus Christ Superstar

Let’s be honest: there’s really only one Best Musical Revival slot still up for grabs.  Follies, Porgy and Bess, and Evita are all but assured nominations, and I suspect Jesus Christ Superstar will end up with the fourth and final slot.  I’ve already mentioned how the critically lambasted On a Clear Day doesn’t stand a chance in this category, and Superstar is simply a better-realized production than last fall’s Godspell.  It doesn’t hurt that this Superstar arrived on Broadway due to merit and popular demand, and it earns brownie points for solving a lot of the problems inherent in mounting this notoriously hard to stage work.

Other than the revival race, its prospects for awards are pretty grim.  The acting amounts to little more than pained looks, as all of the performers are clearly more focused on getting through Webber’s beast of a score than emoting.  I wouldn’t rule out Des McAnuff’s direction from the nomination pool, as he is largely responsible for what makes this Superstar special, and has been nominated for far less impressive work (Jersey Boys remains one of the most overrated musicals of the past 10 years).  I would really like to see a choreography nomination for Lisa Shriver’s surprising work on the show, but with song and dance spectacles making a comeback and several perpetually nominated choreographers (Kathleen Marshall, Rob Ashford) eligible for this season’s Tonys, Shriver faces an uphill battle.

I’ve just over a week to speculate on the 15(!) remaining productions of this season, so look for another one of these Tony articles sooner rather than later.

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 3



Audra, wake up.  We have to go to the Tony Awards.  You got nominated for the gazillionth time.

Spring is upon us, and the mad dash to open before the Tony eligibility cutoff date has begun.  The past week has already seen three Broadway openings, and another eleven shows are scheduled to debut between now and the end of April.  It’s easy to fall behind during this crowded season, so if I want to discuss which shows have the best shot at those coveted Tony nominations (which of course I do), I’d better get crackin’. 

I should admit here that I have no means seen all of these shows, so a lot of these predictions are educated guesses based on industry buzz and past Tony nominating trends.  Which is actually the best way to go about it anyhow, as the shows most likely to score multiple nominations are not necessarily the same as the ones most deserving of those nominations.  If I somehow leave off your personal favorite, it doesn’t necessarily mean I thought it was bad, I just think it is unlikely to do well with the Tony voters.  So let’s pick up right where I left off several months ago, and tackle the shows in chronological order starting with:

An Evening with Patti LuPone and Mandy Patinkin

The Tony board has already announced that this concert and its two stars aren’t eligible in any of the existing award categories, although they could theoretically receive a Special Achievement Tony Award.  I find that unlikely, as the concert was good but not great, and both Patti and Mandy already have Tonys in recognition of their undeniable talent.

Bonnie and Clyde

In a purely merit-based system, Bonnie and Clyde would score several nominations despite having ended its run months ago, but closed shows have been historically handicapped when it comes to the Tonys.  Despite deserving a Best Musical nomination (it’s on par with a show like Memphis, a show which actually won that title two years ago), Bonnie and Clyde probably won’t be able to overcome all the awards politics standing between it and said nomination.  The score, easily the best one composer Frank Wildhorn has ever written, stands a much better chance of actually securing a nomination given the weak competition in the New Musical categories. 

The show’s two charismatic leads are unfortunately out of luck. Laura Osnes’ fine portrayal of Bonnie Parker doesn’t stand much of a chance in the incredibly competitive Best Actress in a Musical Character, which includes such favorites as Audra McDonald, Bernadette Peters, and Kelli O’Hara.  Rising star Jeremy Jordan almost certainly will be nominated for Best Actor, but it will be for his work in Newsies, not this.  But the ever resilient Wildhorn doesn’t seem fazed by any of this, and like a madman is readying a revival of his odious Jekyll and Hyde for another critical thrashing next season.

Stick Fly

The competition for Best Musical may be light, but the Best Play category is so overloaded with heavy hitting contenders that someone will surely get snubbed.  A play like Stick Fly, without any big name talent and only a lukewarm critical reception, doesn’t stand a chance of infiltrating the race, and it’s only real shot at Tony is a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Condola Rashad (daughter of the Tony-winning Phylicia Rashad).

On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever

Remember this show?  It opened to one of the worst critical drubbings of any show this season, closed soon thereafter, and was promptly forgotten by almost everyone.  I personally didn’t see the show, and I have a couple of friends who swear it was actually brilliant, though I find that hard to believe.  Taking an already problematic show, completely reconceptualizing it, and casting leading man Harry Connick Jr. in a role that robs him of his trademark southern boy charm doomed the show before it even started.  The only redeeming quality seems to have been a standout supporting performance by newcomer Jessie Mueller, a name I fully expect to be among the lucky nominees when they are announced on May 1^st.

Lysistrata Jones

Poor Lysistrata Jones.  It mistook encouraging reviews for its Off-Broadway run as permission to graduate to the big leagues, and suffered greatly for that presumption.  Despite a rave review from Times critic Ben Brantley (who apparently saw a different show than literally everyone else), the show closed within a month of opening.  The general consensus is that the show, riddled with poor writing and unmemorable tunes, needed a major rewrite before attempting Broadway, and won’t really be a contender for this year’s awards.  A lack of competition could see Lysistrata undeservingly crop up among the Best Book or Best Score nominees, but every other aspect of it will and should be forgotten.

The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Porgy and Bess has proven to be one of the most divisive productions of the season, thanks mostly to Diane Paulus and Suzan-Lori Parks reconceiving a classic four hour opera as a two and a half hour book musical.  I’m not familiar with the opera, although given the quality of the show’s remaining music I can understand how cutting so much of George Gershwin’s rhapsodic score would anger some people.  But as far as I’m concerned, what’s left is still an incredibly moving piece of theatre that easily earns a place among the four Best Musical Revival nominees.  There’s also some great production design on display, especially when it comes to the lights, and a technical nomination or two for this lavish Porgy certainly isn’t out of the question. 

All but guaranteed is a near-unprecedented seventh Tony nomination for star Audra McDonald, who is giving the performance of a lifetime as Bess and is universally beloved by the theatrical community.  McDonald can safely start shopping for a Tony gown now, as the only real question here is if the four-time Tony winner can triumph over the equally amazing Jan Maxwell from Follies.  As Porgy, Norm Lewis didn’t receive the critical love letters afforded McDonald, but turns in strong work and will hopefully be able to finally add “Tony nominee” to his resume after this season’s nominations.  And Phillip Boykin, whose towering work as the villainous Crown comes closest to matching McDonald’s level of excellence, should make an appearance among the Supporting Actor nominees.

I have to stop there for now, but please continue to check back over the coming weeks for more speculation on Tony-worthiness as the month marches on.

Tony Watch: Assessing the Fall Season Part 2

Stockard Channing, satisfied to know she's a likely Tony nominee for her work in Other Desert Cities

Moving right along, it’s time to continue picking apart the Tony chances for last fall’s crop of shows.  Next!

Relatively Speaking

I have to tell you, I rolled my eyes every time this show came up in the press.  Before it opened, there seemed to be a consensus among the media that this was an event, filled with A-list talent in front of and behind the curtain.  Well, I certainly wasn’t excited about any of the “stars” announced for this collection of one acts; I hadn’t even heard of most of them.  And while the three authors certainly have marquee value at the cinema, we all know that theatre and film are two very different mediums, and success in one by no means guarantees success in the other.

Three months later, and who was right?  I was.  Not only did the production receive tepid reviews, it failed to light the box office on fire.  Even if we assume that the so-called stars appealed to the older generation, who typically has more money to spend on Broadway tickets, the pitiful weekly grosses prove that this was a non-event no one was clamoring for.  It has thankfully closed, and we can all forget it ever happened, because that is surely what Tony voters will do.

Chinglish

Like Relatively Speaking, here was a show seemingly destined for commercial failure; unlike that other show, I actually feel bad for the now-closed Chinglish.  Given the current realities of Broadway box office, there is something admirable about the producers’ decision to premiere this play without any name stars.  And while playwright David Henry Hwang is certainly a respected member of the theatrical community, he has been largely absent from the New York scene for years, robbing this play of the kind of commercial appeal it might otherwise have had.  Reviews were admirable but not raves, which probably sealed the production’s fate.

Tony-wise, it is a long shot (but not impossible) Best Play nominee.  Its best chance at Tony recognition rests with leading lady Jennifer Lim, whose dual-language portrayal of a Chinese translator was by all account breathtaking and resoundingly praised by the press.  That kind of goodwill should help keep her in voters’ minds when they announce nominations this May.

Other Desert Cities

The heavyweight among this fall’s new plays, Other Desert Cities comes to Broadway after a critically lauded Off-Broadway run with much of its cast intact.  The returning actors received another round of raves, with newcomers Rachel Griffiths and Judith Light deemed worthy additions to this Great American Play in the making.  All of these factors have combined to create strong box office for the production, resulting in its limited run being extended well into the spring, keeping this critical darling front and center during the crucial spring Tony voting season.

I would be shocked if Other Desert Cities doesn’t wind up among the Best Play nominees.  And with such a uniformly excellent cast, acting nods are virtually assured, although who will get them is still open for debate.  The smart money would be on awards darling Stockard Channing, possibly joined by Ms. Griffiths in the Best Actress category.  Both men in the cast are well positioned to score Supporting Actor recognition, and I suspect Joe Mantello will receive his umpteenth Best Director nomination as well.

Venus in Fur

And the new plays just keep coming!  Venus in Fur is another winner, an Off-Broadway hit that was again embraced by critics for its Broadway debut.  I personally adored this production, and would love to see it among the Best Play nominees.  I’m not sure it will make the cut, though, given the stiff competition this year (I believe there are around 12 new plays competing for 4 nomination slots).

While the show’s fate is uncertain, Nina Arianda will surely be among this year’s Best Actress nominees, making her two for two in her fast growing Broadway career.  She is sensational as Wanda, and anyone who hasn’t seen this rising star work her magic needs to rush out and buy tickets to Venus’ upcoming commercial transfer.  Depending on how well or poorly the men in this spring’s plays do, her costar Hugh Dancy could also find himself walking the Tony red carpet as a Best Actor nominee in June.

Hugh Jackman: Back on Broadway

Honestly, the Tony committee should feel pretty stupid for doing away with the Special Theatrical Event category a few years back.  Had it been around, they would have the perfect excuse to nominate Broadway golden boy Hugh Jackman, thereby encouraging him to return to Broadway that much sooner and make some lucky producers very, very rich.  As it stands, they may still give him a special achievement Tony for his record-breaking one man show and Herculean fundraising efforts for Broadway Cares/Equity Fights AIDS.  If not, their next chance to shower Jackman with praise will be in 2013, when he stars in Stephen Schwartz’s Houdini musical to what will surely be lots of acclaim and insane box office figures.

Private Lives

Oh, Kim Cattrall.  You gave it a nice shot.  You even managed to earn pretty decent reviews for your performance in this oft-revived Noel Coward comedy, which appears on Broadway every 10 years or so with big name stars making delicious fools of themselves.  But the show was simply too familiar, and I’m not sure the gays have completely forgiven you for making them wait so long for that first Sex in the City movie (we all know she was the sole holdout among the main cast when the movie deals were being drawn up).  But while I don’t foresee any Tony glory in your immediate future, you can go on with your head held high, and maybe return in a vehicle better suited to your persona.

Seminar

In case you haven’t clued in, the fall is clearly the time to launch new plays.  And this one, by Pulitzer Prize finalist Theresa Rebeck, is another work that scored solid but not spectacular reviews.  Since Tony voters tend to favor serious dramas when picking Best Play nominees, I don’t think the comedic Seminar stands a very good shot in that category.  But Alan Rickman, who has been Tony nominated both times he has graced Broadway with his presence, will likely complete the hat trick and be three for three in the Best Actor category.

Tony Watch: Assessing the Fall Season Part 1

One lady who should really start shopping for her Tony night gown

It’s never too early to talk about the Tony Awards.  Ever.  Hell, sometimes it can be more fun to discuss them months in advance, when almost any prediction is pure speculation.  And while I won’t go so far as discussing productions and performances that have yet to open, I thought this mid-winter lull was the perfect time to reflect on those shows that have already opened.  So read on for my completely biased, 100% speculative opinion on who is and isn’t a contender for a nomination this year.

Let’s start at the very beginning (a very good place to start, I’m told), and run through this year’s Broadway shows in chronological order:

Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark

In a turn of events that positively sickens me, this show is actually in a good position to score some Tony love.  This is not due to any actual merit in the production (it’s terrible, and earned my Worst of 2011 award), but because of Tony politics.  You see, a large number of Tony voters are producers, either for Broadway or touring houses, and they tend to favor shows with wide commercial appeal.  Having awards to brag about helps with advertising, and a Best Musical win has been proven to boast almost any show’s box office.  With an average of $1.5 million in weekly grosses, Spider-Man’s definitely has monetary appeal, and it’s the only new musical still running after this fall’s flops.  Since none of the new musicals this spring are surefire critical or commercial hits, Spider-Man could end up with a Best Musical nod, further signifying that the Mayans were right about the world ending this year.

On the positive side, I can’t imagine it scoring any writing nominations (it is much easier for a short-lived show to get nominated in the Score and Book categories).  And while I found the design aspects of the production disappointing given the amount of money and hype involved with the show, I wouldn’t be offended to see it nominated for Scenic or Costume Design.  And since the Best Supporting Actor in a Musical category is pretty slim pickings thus far, Patrick Page could find himself nominated for being easily the show’s strongest asset.

Master Class

Yes, this show happened.  It even got pretty good reviews.  But it closed so long ago, and there are many more plays opening between now and Tony time.  It may manage to make it onto the Best Play Revival list, and leading lady Tyne Daly could conceivable get a Best Actress nomination.  But with so many plays premiering this season, such recognition seems unlikely.

Follies

Follies will be a major presence at this year’s Tony Awards.  That isn’t mere speculation, it’s fact.  The toast of the fall season and an event musical for the Broadway community, there was such overwhelming love of both the show and this production in particular that I can’t imagine it not getting a bevy of nominations.  It’s a lock for Best Revival, leaving only three slots up for grabs in that category.  It will also end up in one or more design categories (if it only gets one design nod, my money is on the costumes).  For so expertly realizing such a tricky piece, director Eric Schaeffer really deserves a directing nod, and “Who’s That Woman” (the mirror number) should be enough to net Warren Carlyle a Best Choreography nomination on its own.

Oddly enough, the show’s greatest potential of being snubbed comes in the acting categories.  With such a uniformly excellent cast, and many of them competing against one another, someone will surely get overlooked.  Of the four leads, I would say Rob Raines is the weakest, and he was still wonderful.  Although I would never underestimate the Broadway community’s love of Bernadette Peters, her take on Sally has proven oddly divisive and may keep her from being a strong contender in a year when Best Actress in a Musical is likely to be a bloodbath (we’ll see why a bit later).

However, there are two performers who so deserve acting recognition that if either one is omitted, you can expect a lengthy blog entry from me decrying how wrong the Tony voters got it.  Jan Maxwell was utterly sensational as Phyllis, and if her universally praised performance doesn’t warrant one of the five Best Actress slots I don’t know what does.  And Danny Burstein, who was positively revelatory as Buddy Plummer, is not only a shoe-in for a Best Actor nomination, but at this early date is the man to beat.

Man and Boy

Did you remember that this early fall revival even happened?  Probably not, which tells you just about everything you need to know as far as its Tony chances are concerned.  Three-time Tony-winner Frank Langella is so adored by critics that he may end up with a Best Actor nomination, but that is Man and Boy’s only shot at Tony gold.

The Mountaintop

This show disappointed a lot of people, and will pay for it come Tony time.  After receiving a lot of critical accolades during its London run and securing two genuine movie stars for its US premiere, this new drama underwhelmed most critics.  Samuel L. Jackson and Angela Bassett got good but not great reviews, and the entire enterprise seems to have been damned by faint praise.  If the show had opened in the spring it would be more of a contender, but with the amount of competition this year it may be completely shut out.

There’s plenty more Tony chatter where this came from, but given the short attention spans of internet readers, I’ve probably already lost you.  The rest will have to wait for another day, while I spend the rest of this week trying to figure out what the hell a Superbowl is.