2012 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

Now we arrive at the two most competitive categories of the year:  Best Actress in a Play and Best Actress in a Musical.  With so many sterling performances by Broadway’s leading ladies this year, choosing just one seems criminal, but I will do my best.  Please keep in mind my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominees (at least in the play categories); and 2) Who will win is not necessarily the same as who should win, a difference I will explain in more detail throughout the body of the article.

Best Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur; Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow; Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities; Linda Lavin, The Lyons; Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Where do I even begin?  All five of these women gave critically lauded performances in well-reviewed productions, meaning the eventual winner will be determined as much by buzz as actual merit.  While all of the nominees are Tony-worthy, I think Cynthia Nixon has the least chance of winning.  Yes, critics adored Nixon’s turn as a college professor with terminal cancer, and the same role won actress Kathleen Chalfant every acting prize she was eligible for when Wit premiered Off-Broadway 14 years ago.  But with her show now closed, Nixon doesn’t have the chance to remind Tony voters how well she stacks up against the competition.

Linda Lavin and Nina Arianda have the advantage of being in currently running plays, but they somehow haven’t amassed the same level of buzz as their competition.  Lavin famously passed on the Broadway transfers of both Follies and Other Desert Cities in order to do The Lyons, and despite her tour de force performance the show hasn’t really caught on with critics or audiences.  Nina Arianda is two for two when it comes to Tony nods (she was also nominated for her Broadway debut last year), but Venus in Fur opened so long ago that I fear she’ll be forgotten despite Venus being in the running for Best Play.  She could be a dark horse candidate, but by definition dark horses are not the most likely winners.

The real contenders are Tracie Bennett and Stockard Channing, who are both giving the type of over the top diva performances Tony voters love.  Channing finds every shade imaginable in her domineering mother character from Other Desert Cities, and for much of the season was considered the front runner for this award.  But then Tracie Bennett arrived and became the talk of the town for her performance as a drug-addled, aging Judy Garland in End of the Rainbow.  Convincingly portraying a beloved icon with such ardent fans is no small feat, and since she utterly dominates Rainbow (as opposed to the more ensemble-oriented Other Desert Cities), I think the Best Actress trophy is Bennett’s to lose.  I’ll be rooting for Arianda, who has twice proven she is an extraordinary talent and a superstar in the making, but the smart money is on Bennett.

Will Win:  Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

Should Win:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Best Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Jan Maxwell, Follies; Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess; Cristin Milioti, Once; Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde

There is no doubt in my mind Kelli O’Hara, with her versatility and crystal-clear singing voice, will eventually win herself a Tony.  But it won’t be for Nice Work If You Can Get It, an underwhelming musical that is by no means her best work.  Similarly, if Laura Osnes continues to improve the way she has since getting her big break in the last Grease revival, she will someday find herself in possession of the coveted statuette.  But with Bonnie & Clyde unfairly trounced by critics and having shuttered ages ago, Osnes is also effectively out of the running.

The remaining three contenders have each done fantastic work this season, and a convincing argument could be made for any one of them to win Best Actress.  Ultimately, I think being a first-time nominee will keep the sensational Cristin Milioti from winning, with the Tony voters reasoning that she has plenty of time left to win the award.  That is not a knock against her amazing performance in Once; I would argue she is the best thing about that incredibly strong show.

But perennial Tony favorites Audra McDonald and Jan Maxwell have both exceeded all possible expectations this year.  Jan Maxwell was a revelation in Follies, stopping the show twice with her two big numbers.  She made the acerbic Phyllis endlessly compelling, slowly stripping away character’s icy veneer to reveal the damaged soul underneath.  It was a master class in musical theatre acting, and combined with the fact that this four-time nominee has never won, that makes her the one the beat in many people’s eyes.

Meanwhile Audra McDonald, the universally beloved singing actress, has one Tony for each of Maxwell’s nominations.  It would be perfectly logically for the Tony voters to spread the wealth, especially since we all knew McDonald would be excellent in Porgy and Bess, a role she was born to play.  But it is impossible to comprehend just how amazing her Bess is without seeing it, and I suspect even her biggest fans would find themselves surprised by what a masterful portrayal it is.  McDonald conveys more with her posture and body language than most actresses can in an entire song, and some of the most riveting moments in Porgy are the dialogue-free scenes where you watch Bess’ inner struggle to overcome her self-destructive tendencies.  And when McDonald does sing, she achieves such operatic heights of vocal technique and emotion that it is truly transcendent.

I’ve been agonizing over which actress is more deserving for months, and in many ways the race is still too close to call.  But call it I must, and my gut is favoring McDonald, despite her almost unprecedented four previous wins.  Unlike Maxwell, whose show closed in January, McDonald is still performing nightly and therefore reminding the Tony voters of her nearly unmatched talent.  Her Bess is one for the ages, and probably her best work to date, an especially high compliment when those four other Tony Awards are taken into consideration.  But if ever there was a tie for Best Actress, this would be the year.

Will Win:  Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess

Should Win:  Audra McDonald AND Jan Maxwell (they are both perfection)

Check back soon for my Best Actor predictions.  Until then, catch up on my previous Tony articles:

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress
Best Score and Book
Best Direction and Choreography

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 7

Matthew Broderick and the cast of Nice Work If You Can Get It celebrate their Best Musical Tony nominaton.

We’re in the home stretch of the spring season.  Only five more shows to discuss before next week’s Tony nominations, and they are:

The Lyons

When Tony Award winner Linda Lavin passed on the Broadway transfers of both Follies and Other Desert Cities in order to play the lead role in The Lyons, she raised quite a few industry eyebrows.  But something about the script for this Off-Broadway premiere – which at the time had no intention of transferring – caught her eye, and in hindsight it’s clear Lavin knew what she was doing.  The play’s strong reviews prompted a late season Broadway transfer, where it again opened to much critical praise for the play as a whole and Lavin’s performance in particular.

It will be interesting to see just how far The Lyons can infiltrate the Tony Awards in this very crowded season.  Its transfer to Broadway has been entirely merit-based, and opening just before the Tony eligibility cutoff date ensures it is fresh in everyone’s minds.  Will that be enough to net the work a Best Play nomination against its higher profile competition?  It just might be. 

Lavin is in a very strong position to secure a Best Actress nomination, and some of her costars may even join her for the ride.  Fellow Tony-winner Dick Latessa is well-respected in the theatrical community and giving another critically praised performance, and the young Michael Esper is so strong in the show that he’s managed to stand out next to such industry heavyweights.  Neither performer can be ruled out of the Supporting Actor race, and The Lyons could well end up being the Little Show That Could.

Nice Work If You Can Get It

One of the biggest question marks heading into the spring season was the “new” Gershwin musical Nice Work If You Can Get It.  A thorough reworking of Oh Kay, one of George and Ira’s lesser known musicals, Nice Work sports a cast and creative team with plenty of Tony pedigree.  Both of its stars have multiple Tony nominations to their name, and director/choreographer Kathleen Marshall is still riding high on the success of last season’s hit Anything Goes.  Yet the show received little pre-opening press or buzz, with many taking the lack of info as a sign that the show was on the road to disaster.

But now the show has opened to good if not great reviews, and more importantly has performed quite strongly in New York’s other theatrical contests like the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards.  Like The Lyons, being so new has certainly helped Nice Work in this area, and all that momentum makes the show a serious Tony contender.  I predict it will indeed manage to nab one of the four coveted Best Musical nominations, a major victory for a show no one was even talking about a month ago.

Other all-but-guaranteed nominations: leading lady Kelli O’Hara for Best Actress and Kathleen Marshall for Best Choreography (and possibly Best Direction), as the latter is definitely working within her wheelhouse here.  Another likely nominee is Judy Kaye for her scene stealing comic turn, and while his lukewarm reviews aren’t very encouraging, Matthew Broderick cannot be completely ruled out of the Best Actor race.  And I expect one or more of the show’s design elements to get nominated, with Martin Pakledinaz’s flapper era costumes a particularly strong contender.

The Columnist

This new play from Manhattan Theatre Club certainly has a Tony-worthy pedigree.  Written by Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright David Auburn (Proof) and directed by Tony-winning director Daniel Sullivan (also Proof, as well as last season’s Merchant of Venice), the show stars multiple Tony winner John Lithgow as a 1960s era newspaper columnist named Joseph Alsop.  Unfortunately, The Columnist seems to have been lost among the plethora of shows that have opened in the past two weeks, and I don’t foresee it being much of a contender for this year’s awards.

Don’t Dress for Dinner

Hopefully Roundabout will finally learn a lesson after their extremely anemic offerings this season.  They need to stop producing subpar Broadway revivals of plays no one has heard of or cares about.  With tens of thousands of existing plays to choose from, not to mention the thousands more awaiting a first production, there’s no excuse for Roundabout to continually pick such poor material.  Don’t Dress for Dinner has earned some of the worst reviews of the spring, and the best it can hope for is to finish out its limited run without a premature closing.

Leap of Faith

An extremely last minute addition to the Broadway season facilitated by the closing of the Harry Connick Jr. bomb On a Clear Day, the new musical Leap of Faith ended the Broadway season on a whimper.  Critically reviled, I can’t imagine Faith ended up among this year’s Best Musical nominees, even with such weak competition.  The score by perpetual Tony bridesmaid Alan Menken has a better chance at a nomination, especially since it was just announced that the score for Once will be ineligible since it was written for the movie and not specifically for the stage.

Since by all accounts the libretto for Faith is one of the show’s primary problems, I’m ruling it out of the Best Book category, which leaves Raul Esparza as the only other real chance the show has at some Tony love.  And even then, it’s entirely possible that the four-time Tony nominee will find himself excluded from the Best Actor race due to the poor quality of his star vehicle.

And that, ladies and gentleman, brings us to the official end of the 2011-2012 Broadway season!  Be sure to check back on Tuesday when the Tony Award nominations are announced to see how I did with my predictions, and look for further Tony chatter throughout the month of May leading up to the big night on June 10^th.  I can’t wait to talk more, and I hope you’ll join me for the ride.

And in case you missed my previous Tony Watch articles, you can catch up on them here:

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Part 6