And then there were two.
The only categories left to discuss are the two biggest awards of any
Tony season, Best Play and Best Musical.
Winning either of these awards has a major effect on a show’s future
prospects, ensuring a high profile that makes the work one of the first scripts
regional and amateur theatres assess when programming their upcoming seasons. For musicals especially, winning this award
provides a document box office boost, increasing the length of the show’s run
and raising the chances of it actually turning a profit.
As always, I must point out a couple of caveats: 1) I have not seen all of the nominated
productions; and 2) I am predicting who will
win, which is not the same as who should
win. History is riddled with examples
of Tony’s top honor going to something other than the season’s best (find me
one person who honestly believes The
Music Man is a better overall show than West
Side Story), and if that seems to be the case this year, I will say as much
in the body of the article.
Best Play
Since there
is no separate playwriting category, the Best Play award functions as an acknowledgement
of both the production as a whole and the script in particular, raising the
desirability of a win in this category.
For the first time in years, every single nominee is a new American
play, a refreshing change of pace from the recent domination of British shows
winning this award.
While all of
these plays are worthy, this is really a two-way race between Clybourne Park and Other Desert Cities. Venus is
Fur is a lean and thought-provoking work featuring two dazzling
performances, but its early season opening has resulting in it losing a lot of buzz
to more recent works. And while many
theatregoers are completely enamored with Peter
and the Starcatcher, it will struggle to overcome its image as a kids’
play, something the high-minded Tony voters tend to scoff at no matter how well
done. Many would also argue that the
direction has as much if not more to do with the Peter’s success than the actual script, a major problem since a Best
Play win doubles as a writing honor.
Both Clybourne Park and Other Desert Cities have a lot of elements that Tony voters look
for in potential Best Play winners. Both
are ensemble driven pieces that tackle serious issues with a healthy mix of
humor and pathos, expertly acted and directed by some of the most talented
people in the business. And from a
financial standpoint, Other Desert Cities
is one of the most successful plays in years, having sustained strong box
office and word of mouth despite being open for the better part of a year (name
the last play that opened in October and was still running in early June). In any other year, it would be the show to
beat.
But there is
something about Clybourne Park that
compels people to vote for it. While Cities had to settle for being “only” a
Pulitzer Prize finalist, the racially charged Clybourne won the prestigious award in 2011. The show does seem like a new type of play,
whereas Cities is very much in the
mold of the dozens of family dramas that have come before it. Helped by a pitch perfect cast who has been
with the show since its Off-Broadway premiere, Clybourne Park has the most momentum going into this evening, and I
expect Tony voters to crown it this
year’s Best Play.
Should Win: Other Desert Cities
Best Musical
I have no
idea who the Leap of Faith producers
paid off to get their critically panned show included among this year’s Best
Musical nominees, especially considering the show’s dismal box office and
premature closing indicate they didn’t have a lot of money to use for such
bribery. Granted, this has not been a
great year for new musicals, especially compared to last year’s incredibly
strong crop of new shows, but I have to believe there was a more deserving
potential nominee. But all the money in
the world couldn’t secure Faith a win
in this category, so I guess there isn’t too much harm done.
Nice Work If You Can Get It really
should be better than it actually is, but as last year’s Women on the Verge proved, putting a bunch of past Tony winners in
the same room does not automatically produce Tony-worthy work. Nice
Work is perfectly serviceable, but there is nothing exciting or overly
interesting about this by the numbers show.
Most of the people involved seem to be there only for the paycheck
rather than a love of the material, as evidenced by the lackadaisical
performances of both Matthew Broderick and, I hate to say it, Kelli
O’Hara. Kathleen Marshall would have
been better off spending the year collecting Anything Goes royalty checks, and I can only hope her next show
marks a return to form for the very talented choreographer/director.
From the
moment its Broadway transfer was announced, I knew Newsies would be a frontrunner for the Best Musical trophy. It is easily the most commercial new musical
of the season, and potential touring profits have been a deciding factor in
this category more than once. The show’s
family friendly song and dance routine is definitely entertaining, and now that
Disney has finally stopped playing coy and announced the show for an open-ended
run, I expect Newsies to easily
outlast the rest of this season’s new shows.
It is not high art, but it is well-done escapist entertainment, which
wins the Tony more often than not.
However, I
think Disney got the timing wrong on this one.
Had the show opened in April instead of in March, it would still be
riding high on its post-opening buzz and sail into an easy Tony victory. But the show has been running just long
enough that we are starting to see some backlash against its lowly ambitions,
and the flaws in its slickly-presented façade are more apparent in
hindsight. And the people who realize
that Newsies isn’t quite as good as
Disney would have you believe will surely vote for Once as the season’s best new show.
At first I
was skeptical of Once, fearing this stage
adaptation of an Oscar-winning indie film would quickly devolve into two-and-a-half
hours of emotionally manipulative sentimentality accompanied by plaintive singer-songwriter
style music. But the show won me over
with its expert execution and genuine heart, moving me in a way no other new
musical has this season. While small in
scale, Once is large in ambition, and
I’m happy to say is succeeds in achieving its lofty goals. There is more invention and feeling in Once than in the other nominees combined,
and the cherry on top of this musical sundae are two fantastic leading
performances by breakout stars Steve Kazee and Cristin Milioti.
Once deserves the Best Musical
trophy. It is the best written show of
the year, and the acting is the most truthful and heartfelt I’ve seen all
season. No one should be surprised if Newsies takes the prize tonight (I
certainly won’t be), but I think Once has
built up enough momentum that it might actually triumph over Disney’s
pre-ordained classic. Yes, this year has
not been a great one for new musicals, but these two shows are definitely
worthy of Broadway and beyond.
Will and Should Win: Once
And that’s
it for my 2012 Tony predictions! Tune in
to the Tony Awards telecast tonight at 8 to see how I did, and check back in
the coming days for my reaction to Broadway’s biggest night. If you’ve missed any of my previous prediction
blogs, check them out below:
Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
