2018 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

After a month of celebration and speculation, the 2018 Tony Awards are almost upon us! All that's left to predict are Best Play and Best Musical, the two awards most likely to positively impact a show's success on Broadway and beyond. Best Musical in particular can make or break a show; Wicked was going to run regardless, but does anyone think Avenue Q would have had the life it's had without the boost provided by its surprise Best Musical win?

So which shows will triumph at Sunday night's ceremony? And do they actual deserve to win? Read on to find out!

Best Play

The Broadway cast of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.

Nominees: The Children; Farinelli and the King; Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Junk; Latin History for Morons

I could expend a lot of mental energy trying to concoct scenarios where Harry Potter and the Cursed Child loses this award, but its win feels so assured that it would be a waste of time. Like Best Revival of a Play frontrunner Angels in America, Cursed Child is an epic two-part play that by all accounts has expertly translated JK Rowling's Wizarding World to the stage, including reportedly jaw dropping feats of stage magic (Potter is almost certain to sweep the design categories). Lovingly crafted and beautifully acted, the consensus is the play actually deserves the massive financial success its enjoyed since before previews even started, when it amassed a staggering $20 million in advanced ticket sales. Cursed Child is also the only show in this category currently running, which has always been a massive advantage when it comes to winning Tonys. The only real negative for the show is that a win here can't really boost the already sky high box office for a show that remains sold out for many months to come.

Will & Should Win: Harry Potter and the Cursed Child

Best Musical

Ethan Slater and the Broadway cast of SpongeBob SquarePants.

Nominees: The Band's Visit; Frozen; Mean Girls; SpongeBob SquarePants

Now this is an interesting race. The only show I feel comfortable completely ruling out is Frozen, a competent stage adaptation of Disney's blockbuster film that failed to make much of an impression on Tony nominators or the theatre community at large. That's not to be confused with outright failure, as the $1.8 million in weekly grosses attests, but it certainly hasn't captured the imagination in the way The Lion King did back in 1998. And without at least some passionate supporters in your camp, it is very difficult to win Best Musical.

The conventional wisdom is The Band's Visit will win this award, but there are some important caveats that need to be taken into account. It is not the most nominated show of the season - both Mean Girls and SpongeBob got more total nods - and while that doesn't always correlate with a Best Musical win leading the nomination pack certain helps a show's overall chances. The Band's Visit is clearly the *critic's* favorite musical (see all the "Best of the Year" mentions it loudly trumpets in its marketing campaigns), but the critics haven't been able to vote for the Tonys since the 2009-2010. Not coincidentally, that was the season clear critical favorite and most nominated musical Fela! was bested by the more accessible and crowd pleasing Memphis for Best Musical, a particularly relevant piece of Tony history as The Band's Visit is similarly so concerned with being Art that it sometimes forgets to be entertaining.

If I was a Tony voter, I would vote for Mean Girls, the show that best combines sheer entertainment value with theatrical craft and some emotional depth. Tina Fey's adaptation of her iconic film is a blisteringly funny satire of teen cliques that genuinely has something to say about the way people treat one another. It keeps everything that made the movie enjoyable while finding new and interesting takes on the familiar plots and characters, including an extended metaphor about predator and prey and more nuanced investigations of many of the side characters. Add an appealing young cast and director Casey Nicholaw's trademark energy and you have a surefire crowd pleaser whose only real fault is that it tries so hard to make you like it.

But while Mean Girls has been consistently nominated for big awards, it has struggled to win most of them, often losing to fellow Best Musical nominee SpongeBob SquarePants. Admiration for the Nickelodeon adaptation has been steadily growing throughout the spring, including strong showings at both the Outer Critic's Circle and Drama Desk Awards, where it took home top honors. It has successfully capitalized on its underdog status to become a major contender, and the more I think about it the more I expect a "surprise" upset for this little show that could on Sunday night. The Band's Visit, perhaps a victim of its own hype, has proven disappointing and/or alienating to a fair number of people, while SpongeBob has consistently impressed by being a lot better than it has any right to be. If Memphis can beat Fela! and Kinky Boots can beat Matilda, SpongeBob can certainly beat The Band's Visit, and honestly probably deserves to.

Will Win: SpongeBob SquarePants
Should Win: Mean Girls

And that's it for this year's Tony predictions! Tune in to the Tony telecast on Sunday, June 10th to find out how I did, and check back early next week to get my final thoughts on this season's winners! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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Revival

2018 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

We're only a few short days away from the 2018 Tony Awards, when we'll learn which productions and artists from this past season have won Broadway's highest honor. We've spent plenty of time discussing the later, predicting all the acting races as well as many of the creative team awards, and now it's time to focus on the former. Which four productions will be deemed the best Broadway had to offer this past season? We're starting with the revivals, so read on to find out my thoughts!

Best Revival of a Play

James McArdle and Andrew Garfield in the Broadway revival of Angels in America.

Nominees: Angels in America; The Iceman Cometh; Lobby Hero; Three Tall Women; Travesties

While this category sports uniformly well received productions, I along with everyone else expect this award to go to Angels in America. Tony Kushner's Pulitzer Prize-winning epic is event theatre on a scale rarely seen, filled with the kind of weighty subject matter and big emotional beats that are like catnip to awards voters. In addition to being the most nominated play in Tony history, Angels has won practically every other Best Revival award in existence, so I see no reason why that would change come Sunday night.

Travesties is respected but heady, to the point where multiple reviewers admitted to being confused despite recognizing the craft on display; Tony voters probably feel similarly and will take their votes elsewhere. Lobby Hero marked Second Stage's Broadway debut in their dedicated home and established the Off-Broadway not-for-profit as a Broadway player to watch. I'm sure multiple Tony Awards are in Second Stage's future, but they will have to wait a bit longer to collect them. The Iceman Cometh earned surprisingly strong reviews for a production most industry insiders didn't seem all that interested in, but the tone of reviews is just measured enough that a win seems unlikely. If anything can wrest the crown away from Angels it will be Joe Mantello's new mounting of Three Tall Women, but I suspect most voters will view Glenda Jackson's presumed Best Actress win as a way to honor the entire production. 

(Fun fact: before becoming one of New York's go-to directors, Mantello was an actor who made his Broadway debut as Louis in the original mounting of Angels in America to Tony-nominated effect.)

Will & Should Win: Angels in America

Best Revival of a Musical

Lauren Ambrose in My Fair Lady at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: Carousel; My Fair Lady; Once On This Island

While this category sports fewer nominees than Best Revival of a Play, it *feels* more competitive as it lacks an obvious front runner. Carousel seems likely to be an also-ran, since the plethora of well executed individual elements haven't quite gelled as a whole for many theatregoers. Some feel the issues are inherent in the script and its questionable portrayal of domestic abuse, while others just think this particular production misses the mark in how it handles said elements, but either way the cumulative effect is a revival with enough naysayers to prevent a win.

Lincoln Center's lavish production of My Fair Lady was always destined to be this season's prestige revival, and it delivers on all fronts. Unlike Carousel, the creative team behind this show has addressed its problematic aspects in a way that appeals to modern sensibilities without betraying the original intent of the show. If anything, director Bartlett Sher's take on the material feels closer in spirit to Lerner and Loewe's actual text than many more "traditional" productions. As always, Sher has assembled a top notch cast to present a subtly revolutionary take on a show we all think we know, and it seems like once again Sher's efforts will result in a Best Revival win.

And yet I can't help but root for Michael Arden's breathtaking in-the-round staging of Once On This Island. While it lacks the sheer physical scale of its competitors it is no less ambitious, having beautifully transformed the Circle in the Square Theatre into an evocative island paradise overflowing with theatrical ingenuity and genuine heart. While I've heard whispers that some found My Fair Lady a tad too stately and reverential, I have yet to encounter anything but effusive praise for Once On This Island. It would certainly be a Tony moment to see this scrappy little show walk off with one of the night's biggest prizes, and while I don't expect it to happen, I can certainly hope for it.

Will Win: My Fair Lady
Should Win: Once On This Island (but My Fair Lady is also fantastic)


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2018 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

The 2018 Tony Awards are just over a week away, and we are continuing full speed ahead with our annual Tony predictions. Today we finish up the acting races with the Leading Actresses, breaking down who will win and pointing out who deserves to win while we're at it. Read on below!

Best Actress in a Play

Glenda Jackson as A in Three Tall Women.

Nominees: Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women; Condola Rashad, Saint Joan; Lauren Ridloff, Children of a Lesser God; Amy Schumer, Meteor Shower

This is the easiest Tony category to predict; in fact, I'll go so far as to call it a lock. Glenda Jackson has already won multiple awards for her leading turn in Three Tall Women, including the hyper competitive Distinguished Performance Award from the Drama League, which is only awarded to one performer per year and can only be won once in a performer's lifetime.

As if that wasn't enough of an advantage, Jackson also faces less competition than normal with only three other nominees, none of whom have inspired much fervor among Tony voters. Amy Schumer is a somewhat surprising nominee from the long-shuttered Meteor Shower, and I don't know anyone who expects her to win. Meanwhile, Condola Rashad looks set to continue her streak as a perpetual Tony bridesmaid, with Saint Joan barely limping through its limited run with half-empty houses and zero buzz, either positive or negative. And while I'm sure Tony voters will love the story of Children of a Lesser God's Lauren Ridloff - a first time actress who was brought in as a consultant on Deaf culture and won the role of Sarah after being asked to play it during a reading - the show's early closing certainly hasn't helped her chances. If anyone can unseat Jackson it's probably Ridloff, but that seems about as likely as Hamilton closing anything this decade.

Will Win: Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women
Should Win: Abstain

Best Actress in a Musical

Katrina Lenk as Dina in The Band's Visit.

Nominees: Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady; Hailey Kilgore, Once On This Island; LaChanze, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical; Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit; Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls; Jessie Mueller, Carousel

As with Best Featured Actress in a Musical, there are some bizarre choices and omissions here. How Tony voters overlooked Patti Murin's luminous, star-making turn as Princess Anna in Frozen is beyond me, as I would rank her work above several of the nominated actresses without hesitation. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Jessie Mueller's inclusion for Carousel feels like a force of habit nomination more than something the Tony-winning actress earned. The Rodgers and Hamemrstein revival is far from Mueller's best work, not helped by the fact she is saddled with a problematic "leading" role which has failed to result in even a Tony nomination for those who've played it before her. It's also a bit of a stretch to argue that Taylor Louderman's take on Regina George in Mean Girls belongs in the leading category, although its harder to begrudge the first time Tony nominee her time in the spotlight.

That leaves us with four viable candidates to actually win, and I think we can safely rule out LaChanze's diva-riffic performance in Summer. I'm sure the previous Tony-winner is doing great work as late disco star Donna Summer, but the musical is so reviled by critics a win for her seems borderline impossible. I think both Hailey Kilgore and Once On This Island in general have ardent supporters among the community, but for whatever reason that show hasn't quite ignited Tony voters the way I thought it would (and should). My best guess as to why is the show opened just *slightly* too early in the season, and voters have been distracted by the newer productions that have premiered since then.

The Band's Visit actually opened prior to Island, but the difference here is that many people consider it the frontrunner for Best Musical, and so it is continually on people's minds. Katrina Lenk is quite bewitching as Dina, the sole female presence of any consequence in the show and the closest thing the ensemble piece has to a lead. If more of Visit lived up to her performance of the haunting ballad "Omar Sharif" I would probably like it a lot more than I currently do, but I still find her hobbled by the piece's frustratingly restrained, understated tone that is subtle to the point of being nonexistent.

Meanwhile Lauren Ambrose is giving the most fully realized musical characterization of the season in My Fair Lady at the Vivan Beaumont Theatre. Her Eliza is also heavily reliant on subtext and acting between the lines, but Ambrose manages an emotional accessibility Lenk lacks without sacrificing the latter's nuance. The only real criticism I have of Ambrose's performance is that while her sweet soprano can sound a bit small in that cavernous theatre, and you have definitely heard the role of Eliza sung better. What you likely *haven't* seen is a better acted version, and her singing is strong enough that you can forgive those times her voice is merely good instead of great.

As far as I'm concerned, Ambrose has more than earned this award. She may well win it, as demonstrated by her victory at the Outer Critics' Circle Awards over largely the same field of competitors. But the objective part of me suspects that Tony voters will go with Lenk due to their love for Band's Visit (and residual love for last season's Indecent, also starring Lenk).

Will Win: Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit
Should Win: Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady
Should Have Been Nominated: Patti Murin, Frozen



Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2018 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

We are now less than 2 weeks away from the 2018 Tony Awards, and speculation about who will win Broadway's highest honor on June 10th continues to intensify, including here at Broadway, Etc. After making predictions about the Featured Actor and Actress races, its time to move on to the Leading categories, where I will be predicting who will win as well as pointed out who most deserves it. Read on for more!

Best Actor in a Play

Andrew Garfield (left) as Prior Walter and Nathan Stewart-Jarrett as Belize in Angels in America.

Nominees: Andrew Garfield, Angels in America; Tom Hollander, Travesties; Jamie Parker, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Mark Rylance, Farinelli and the King; Denzel Washington, The Iceman Cometh

As with Best Featured Actress in a play, this category is mostly made up of Brits from transferred productions. Tom Hollander seems like the longest shot to win here, as Travesties just doesn't have the awards momentum to overtake the other, more lauded productions represented here. Meanwhile Mark Rylance has never gone through a Tony season without a win (he wasn't nominated for La Bete but won for Jerusalem that same season, and won one of two Tonys he was nominated for in 2014), but this doesn't feel like his year, and honestly he's probably busier campaigning for Farinelli and the King to win Best Play so his wife, the play's author, can experience Tony glory.

Which leaves us with Jamie Parker, Andrew Garfield, and Denzel Washington. Parker seemed like the man to beat heading into this season, before the love for Angels in America somewhat surprisingly surpassed the excitement about Harry Potter and the Cursed Child. Parker certainly isn't down for the count, but his path to Tony gold is a lot harder thanks to an abundance of love for the revival of Tony Kushner's two-part epic. Angels is certainly the more "serious" of the two works, which fairly or not gives Andrew Garfield the edge. But Washington is a dark horse for The Iceman Cometh, a production that pleasantly surprised a lot of critics and provides the Tony and Oscar winner with quite the showcase scene in the final act. I still expect Garfield to win, but I wouldn't be overly surprised to see Parker or Washington sneak through in an upset.

Will Win: Andrew Garfield, Angels in America
Should Win: Abstain

Best Actor in a Musical

Joshua Henry as Billy Bigelow in Carousel.

Nominees: Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady; Joshua Henry, Carousel; Tony Shalhoub, The Band's Visit; Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants

There were only 5 eligible performances in this category, a byproduct of it being a weaker year for musicals in general and a welcomed increase in musicals centered around women; 7 of this year's musicals have female leads or co-leads (a couple even feature 2 women sharing the spotlight with all men relegated to supporting roles). That said, the lack of quantity is certainly compensated for by an abundance of quality, with some truly excellent talent on display here. I can't imagine Tony Shalhoub actually winning for The Band's Visit - very much an ensemble show where his leading man status feels like a courtesy extended due to his fame - but he's certainly deserving of a nomination.

I'm not sure what to make of Ethan Slater's chances playing the title character of SpongeBob SquarePants. On the one hand, the young actor is beyond charismatic in his Broadway debut, so effortlessly embodying the eternally optimistic sea sponge that I have trouble imagining anyone else in the role. He has also already racked up Theatre World and Outer Critics' Circle Awards for his performance, so only a fool would count him out of the running (not to mention the Tonys love a Cinderella story). But at the same time, as great as Slater is, I'm not convinced that he's the best of the four nominated actors, or even the runner up.

Joshua Henry and Harry Hadden-Paton both take already great, award-worthy roles and run with them, exceeding expectations in two career milestone performances. Both also succeed in taking characters with extreme cases of toxic masculinity and making them both relatable and even empathetic for audiences hyper aware of how horribly sexist traditional male/female gender dynamics are. And no actor, male or female, tackled a role more closely associated with a specific performer than Hadden-Paton, who successfully makes My Fair Lady's caustic Henry Higgins his own in the wake of Rex Harrison's legendary, Oscar- and Tony-winning performance.

If I were voting, I'd probably choose Hadden-Paton, who I thought was perfection in a near perfect production. But Henry is offering up one of the best, if not the best, sung renditions of Carousel Broadway has ever seen. His "Soliloquy" is the musical highlight of the season, thanks both to his vocal prowess and his stellar acting ability, traits which carry through the entirety of his performance. Henry's just *feels* like a Tony-winning performance, thrillingly sung and expertly acted, and after two prior nominations it looks like the third time will be the charm for this consistently excellent performer.

Will Win: Joshua Henry, Carousel
Should Win: Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady (just barely edging out Henry)



Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2018 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

Our 2018 Tony Award predictions continue, this time focusing on the Best Featured Actress nominees. Read on for my thoughts on who will win, who deserves to win, and at least one criminally overlooked actress!

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Noma Dumezweni (left) with Jamie Parker and Paul Thornley in Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.

Nominees: Susan Brown, Angels in America; Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Deborah Findlay, The Children; Denise Gough, Angels in America; Laurie Metcalf, Three Tall Women

It is both interesting and somewhat distressing to note that with the exception of Metcalf, all of the actresses in this category hail from the UK, as do the productions for which they're nominated. While I'm not as concerned about the state of the Broadway play as some, it is disheartening to see the lack of home grown talent when it comes to plays on the Great White Way. Hopefully next season will see producers taking more chances on American-born plays and productions.

As for likely winners, Deborah Findlay is the longest shot here, having appeared in a long-shuttered play which got little Tony love (although The Children did manage to score a coveted Best Play nomination). Meanwhile, when it comes to the dual nominees from Angels in America, both roles offer such a wealth of acting opportunities I'm not sure how anyone can choose between them. Susan Brown tackles multiple roles, primarily that of an overbearing Mormon mother struggling to accept her closeted son, while Denise Gough plays her pill popping daughter-in-law. While I usually think the effect of vote splitting on Tony winners is marginal, the lack of a clear favorite leaves room for a neck and neck race to be overtaken by a third contender with just a few more votes.

Between her Tony win last year for A Doll's House Part 2, her Oscar nominated supporting turn in Lady Bird, and her return to her signature sitcom role of Aunt Jackie on the revival of Roseanne, it seems the entire world has remembered just how much they love the supremely talented Laurie Metcalf. She could well pull off a rare back to back Tony win with her supporting turn in Three Tall Women, a production the entire theatre community seems to adore. But I think Harry Potter and the Cursed Child's Noma Dumezweni will *just* edge out Metcalf and go home with a Tony to accompany the Olivier Award she won for the same role. Not only would a win for Dumezweni acknowledge her lauded performance as Hermione Granger, it would also be a strong statement in support of onstage representation and color conscious casting. (Despite JK Rowling's approval and the fact that Hermione's race is never explicitly referenced in the novels, some criticized the casting of a black actress as a character many had assumed was white, a notion reinforced by Emma Watson's portrayal of the character through 8 films.)

Will Win: Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
Should Win: Abstain

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Lindsay Mendez as Carrie Pipperidge in Carousel.

Nominees: Ariana DeBose, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical; Renee Fleming, Carousel; Lindsay Mendez, Carousel; Ashley Park, Mean Girls; Diana Rigg, My Fair Lady

Not to take anything away from the nominated performers, but it's safe to say this category did not turned out quite as expected. Dame Diana Rigg is a treasure and Broadway is lucky to have her, but her inclusion for the relatively minor, non-singing role of Mrs. Higgins in Lincoln Center's My Fair Lady has raised more than a few eyebrows. I also question the inclusion of Mean Girls' Ashley Park at the exclusion of her hilarious, scene stealing costar Kate Rockwell, whose dimwitted Karen is the most consistently hysterical performance on Broadway right now. (Fans of reckless belting are also bummed at the exclusion of Barrett Wilbert Weed's Janice from the same show, but in that case I can see why she didn't quite make the cut.)

In fact, while all supremely talented, all of the nominated women also have some big hurdles to clear. Ariana DeBose's star has been steadily rising the past few seasons as an original cast member of first Hamilton and then A Bronx Tale, but the only musical this season critics seemed to hate more than Summer is the unnominated Escape to Margaritaville. Rigg will have to overcome the prejudice against being nominated in a musical acting category despite not singing a note, which while technically allowed does seem to be against the spirit of the award. Both Renee Fleming and Lindsay Mendez are doing admirable work in a divisive revival of Carousel; some folks loved it, others - like me - found it to be an admirable but ultimately flawed production of a problematic show. And Park's more nuanced turn in a musical primarily known for over the top musical comedy could either be an asset or a hindrance depending on how many voters expect all actors in comedies to be laugh out loud funny.

Despite having to compete with the memory of Audra McDonald in her breakthrough role, Mendez seems like the most likely victor. She is a well-liked member of the community who has admirably adapted her very contemporary quirkiness and vocal pyrotechnics to the traditional leanings of the Rodgers and Hammerstein revival, and aside from leading man Joshua Henry she is the most consistently strong part of the show. (Fleming's masterful rendition of "You'll Never Walk Alone" is worth the price of admission alone, but her serviceable dialogue scenes don't feel quite strong enough to justify a win.) Park is the next most likely winner, and I can even see Tony voters opting for a surprise win for DeBose, but as of now this is Mendez's race to lose.

Will Win: Lindsay Mendez, Carousel
Should Win/Should Have Been Nominated: Kate Rockwell, Mean Girls


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2018 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

Having tackled some of the creative behind the scenes categories, it is now time to turn the focus of our annual Tony Predictions to the acting categories. So let's get started with the Featured Actor categories, breaking down both who will win and who actually deserves to win. Read on for more!

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathan Lane as Roy Cohn in Angels in America.

Nominees: Anthony Boyle, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Michael Cera, Lobby Hero; Brian Tyree Henry, Lobby Hero; Nathan Lane, Angels in America; David Morse, The Iceman Cometh

Having not seen any of the nominated performances (I do have tickets to see both Angels in American and Cursed Child later this summer), I'm flying blind when it comes to predicting this category. David Morse feels like a long shot as the Broadway community doesn't seem especially passionate about The Iceman Cometh, but with that said his role of Larry Slade gives him plenty of material to work with in what is essentially a co-lead. More stagetime means more chances to have Tony-worthy moments, so the possibility of a surprise win for Morse is certainly there. Lobby Hero costars Michael Cera and Brian Tyree Henry may well cancel each other out, and the fact that Lobby Hero is now closed while the other productions are still running is another hurdle either actor will have to overcome. (Historically, being in a closed show severely handicaps a performer's chances of winning.)

Like many of this season's play categories, the race will likely to boil down to Harry Potter vs. Angels in America. Anthony Boyle won the Olivier for his role in Cursed Child's London premiere, while Nathan Lane was surprisingly not even nominated for playing force of nature Ray Cohn in Angels at London's National Theatre. That would appear to give Boyle the edge, but the American response to Angels has also outpaced the British reception, partially evidenced by Angels beating Cursed Child in total nominations. Lane's star wattage is also stronger on this side of the Atlantic, with the beloved character having been a fixture of the New York theatrical community for decades. Despite multiple nominations Lane hasn't won a Tony since The Producers all the way back in 2001, so it feels like he's overdue for another, especially since he has never been recognized for one of his many lauded dramatic roles. I think Lane will win the day, but don't count Boyle out just yet.

Will Win: Nathan Lane, Angels in America

Should Win: Abstain

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Gavin Lee as Squidward J. Tentacles in SpongeBob SquarePants.

Nominees: Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady; Alexander Gemignani, Carousel; Grey Henson, Mean Girls; Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants; Ari'el Stachel, The Band's Visit

This is a competitive category that could go any number of ways, and might be an early indication of whether Tony voters have played it safe or gotten adventurous with their winners. Norbert Leo Butz is the elder statesman of the group, having won twice for his leading performances in Dirty Rotten Scoundrels  and Catch Me If You Can. He gives a fantastically layered, utterly transfixing performance in My Fair Lady, but is it enough to justify awarding him another trophy over the rest of the category, most of whom are first time nominees? If Butz's name is called on Tony Sunday, expect an evening of choices that rewards the established Broadway elite rather than the new kids on the block.

Ari'el Stachel sits in an interesting space between Butz and the other nominees. He's nominated for his Broadway debut, so a win for him would appear to signal the Tony voters are interested in rewarding new blood. But The Band's Visit is the widely presumed frontrunner for Best Musical, so picking the one representative from that show would be a fairly safe choice. Personally, while I don't think Stachel is bad by any stretch of the imagination, I'm also hard pressed to tell you exactly what his character does in the show. Being unmemorable in a field of flashy performances is a handicap I'm not sure Stachel can overcome (and should Band's Visit be the runaway favorite for the big awards, Tony voters might want to spread the love).

The other nominees are more exciting choices, unexpected but not undeserving. While Alexander Gemignani is the longest shot of the group, he does extraordinary things with Enoch Snow in Carousel, a role which would easily fade into the background in the hands of a lesser performer. But I can't see him triumphing over SpongeBob's Gavin Lee and Mean Girls' Grey Henson, both supremely charismatic performers gifted with bona fide showstoppers. Lee's comic stylings have been polished to a high shine, and watching him tap dance his way through "I'm Not a Loser" is the most joyous part of a show overflowing with unbridled fun. Henson is rougher around the edges, but there's no denying the infectious glee he brings to Mean Girls' "too gay to function" Damian, a clear crowd favorite (so much so the writers added a second big number for Hensen between the DC tryout and Broadway).

Honestly, Butz probably *deserves* this award the most. The cynic in me thinks Tony voters will ultimately choose Stachel for having the most dramatic performance, but recent winners in this category show a refreshing willingness to acknowledge how difficult a comedic performance can be. For that reason, I'm going out on a limb and predicting Gavin Lee will tap his way to victory, proving once and for all that he is NOT a loser.

Will Win: Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants

Should Win: Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady

Should Have Been Nominated: Alex Newell for his gender bending, rough raising Asaka in Once on this Island 

Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2018 Tony Predictions: Best Director and Choreography

While many Tony categories this year are up for grabs, that seems to stem more from all the nominees being equally good but not great rather than a surfeit of truly standout work. That is not meant to detract from this year's nominees so much as an acknowledgement that there's just less eligible work this season, and it isn't the creative home runs we've been spoiled by the past few years. That said, one area where this year's Tonys are *super* competitive is Best Director, so read on to find out my predictions of who will walk away a winner on June 10th (and if they actually deserve it).

Best Direction of a Play

Andrew Garfield as Prior Walter and the cast of Angels in America.

Nominees: Marianne Elliott, Angels in America; Joe Mantello, Three Tall Women; Patrick Marber, Travesties; John Tiffany, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; George C. Wolfe, The Iceman Cometh

The level of talent in this category is off the charts. With the exception of Travesties' Patrick Marber, all are previous Tony winners, both hugely influential and highly respected in the Broadway community. And the shows they are nominated for not only represent some of the best reviewed productions of the season, but also display an sense of scale and depth rarely attempted in a Broadway play these days.

While the Tonys typically love an underdog story, I don't see Marber breaking through for Roundabout's revival of Tom Stoppard's heady Travesties. The play is just too obtuse for the average Tony voter to really rally behind, even though they all surely recognize and respect the skill that went into mounting it. Meanwhile George C. Wolfe's The Iceman Cometh's finds itself the victim of poor timing, coming only a few years after a much heralded mounting at Brooklyn Academy of Music starring Nathan Lane and Brian Dennehy that was once rumored for a Broadway transfer. Many critics felt the show didn't quite merit revisiting so soon, and Wolfe will unfortunately be penalized for it. And while I have read nary a negative word about Joe Mantello's mounting of Three Tall Women, I have trouble imagining him triumphing over the other two gargantuan undertakings under consideration here.

Both Angels in America and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child are epic plays presented in two parts. Both have a lot of technical elements for their directors to wrangle, with Cursed Child reportedly boasting a physical production and special effects on the level of any big budget musical. There is a very good chance John Tiffany will win for bringing The Boy Who Lived to Broadway in such successful, stunning fashion, a clear triumph of theatrical craft and artistry. But Angels in America is inarguably one of the densest, most thought provoking, and important plays of the past 50 years, and by all accounts Marianne Elliott has nailed it. In what some might consider an upset, I foresee her name being the one called on June 10th, to thunderous applause.

Will and Should Win: Marianne Elliott, Angels in America

Best Direction of a Musical

Harry Hadden-Paton as Henry Higgins and Lauren Ambrose as Eliza Doolittle in My Fair Lady at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: Michael Arden, Once on this Island; David Cromer, The Band's Visit; Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants; Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls; Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady

For me, this is hands down the most competitive category of the night. Each director's vision permeates every corner of their respective productions, and yet ultimately it is the material which shines through instead of some heavy-handed directorial "concept." That said, I think we can safely rule out a win for Casey Nicholaw, as the very entertaining Mean Girls is hardly his best work. And while David Cromer is a dark horse for his work on the critically lauded The Band's Visit, I don't think his direction of that show is as integral to its success as the remaining three contenders.

It cannot be understated how much Michael Arden's vision for Once on this Island helped shape that production into the jewel it is today. His environmental staging makes the most out of the deceptively tricky Circle in the Square Theatre, and for all his lush images and inventive staging he keeps the focus squarely on the narrative's big, beating heart. After the Deaf West Spring Awakening revival and now this, Arden has firmly established himself as an artist to watch, but I sadly don't think it's his time to win Tony glory just yet. 

When it comes to choosing between Tina Landau and Bartlett Sher it's almost too close to call. The Outer Critics' Circle refused to pick, instead awarding both artists Best Direction of a Musical in a rare tie. Sher has subtly but irrevocably changed the way My Fair Lady plays for a modern audience more aware than ever of how gender politics play out in popular entertainment. He has radically reinterpreted a beloved classic in a way that feels startlingly fresh and contemporary without changing a word of the 62 year old classic.

Meanwhile Landau, who has been attached to SpongeBob SquarePants almost since its inception, has miraculous turned what seemed like a cynical cash grab by a big corporation into one of the most entertaining celebrations of theatrical craft around. She has guided her design team to a visual look that evokes the off-kilter feel of the cartoon without literally copying it, and has assembled a rock solid cast that have been encouraged to take their performances far beyond a funny voice and a couple of quirks. She as much as anyone helped shape the disparate elements into a unified whole that feels entirely at home on stage. 

Sher seems like a safer bet to win, and should he walk away with the trophy on Tony Sunday you won't hear any complaints from me. But Landau is this season's MVP when in comes to direction, and I'm hoping she will walk away with the acknowledgement she deserves.

Will Win: Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady

Should Win: Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants

Best Choreography

The beautiful dancers of the cast of Carousel.

Nominees: Christopher Gattelli, My Fair Lady; Christopher Gattelli, SpongeBob SquarePants; Steven Hoggett, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls; Justin Peck, Carousel

This article is running a bit long, but that's okay because there's not much to discuss here. Justin Peck easily wins Best Choreography for his beautiful and abundant work on Carousel, the biggest dance show of the season. The revival's producers were smart to hire New York City Ballet's youngest ever choreographer in residence to stage Carousel's many dances - including the signature Rodgers and Hammerstein dream ballet - and I can't imagine anyone else winning this award.

Will & Should Win: Justin Peck, Carousel

Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Best Book and Score

2018 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

And just like that, it's Tony season! As always, I will be doing my best to predict this year's winners, and pointing out any discrepancies between who I think *will* win and who *deserves* to win in my analysis. This season has not produced a Hamilton or Dear Evan Hansen level juggernaut, which actually makes a lot of the races more interesting as there isn't a runaway smash to dominate the new musical categories like Best Book and Best Score. So how do I think these two prestigious categories will go down? Read on to find out!

Best Book

Erika Henningson as Cady Heron and Ashley Park, Taylor Louderman, and Karen Rockwell as the titular Mean Girls.

Nominees: Itamar Moses, The Band's Visit; Jennifer Lee, Frozen; Tina Fey, Mean Girls; Kyle Jarrow, SpongeBob SquarePants

No point in beating around the bush: this is Tina Fey's award to lose. Her book for Mean Girls is just as hysterically funny and endlessly quotable as the film, and although this is her Broadway debut she is a beloved comedy icon the Broadway community has welcomed with open arms. Her greatest competition is Itamar Moses for The Band's Visit, a critical darling of a musical character study which I found to be lacking in the character department. Understated to a fault, Moses' book does a poor job of transitioning into the musical numbers or sufficiently establishing the characters when they aren't singing, leaving the whole show feeling dramatically inert.

If anyone truly deserves to upset Fey it's Kyle Jarrow, who crafted an original narrative for SpongeBob SquarePants that for the most part seamlessly integrates the songs of over a dozen pop artists. He's a big reason SpongeBob feels like a proper musical and not a corporation-birthed Frankenstein monster, and he deftly balances appeasing the cartoon's massive fan base while keeping the show accessible to those who have never seen an episode in their life. As for Frozen's Jennifer Lee, she has admirable expanded her original screenplay for the stage, but will have to settle for the honor of being nominated (and the huge royalty checks Disney sends her each month).

Will and Should Win: Tina Fey, Mean Girls

Bonus Prediction: After years of handing out Best Book during commercial breaks, the Tony telecast will magically find time to actually show this category and its presumed big name winner on air.

Best Score

The cast of The Band's Visit on Broadway.

Nominees: Adrian Sutton, Angels in America; David Yazbek, The Band's Visit; Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, Frozen; Jeff Richmond and Nell Benjamin, Mean Girls; Various Artists, SpongeBob SquarePants

A week hours ago this category seemed pretty cut and dry. David Yazbek, previously nominated in this category three times without winning, has written the score to the most critically lauded musical of the season. And his ethereal music for The Band's Visit is easily the most beguiling part of that production, so a Tony Award appeared to be in his immediate future. But then the Outer Critics' Circle awarded Best Score to the 17 recording artists behind SpongBob SquarePants, a show that increasingly looks like it could be a major dark horse contender during this year's awards season.

However, while SpongeBob's win is an interesting wrinkle, it probably won't affect the final outcome. Remember that Yazbek wasn't eligible for this year's OCCs since The Band's Visit premiered Off-Broadway last season and so competed in the 2017 awards (which it and Yazbek both won). I still consider him the front runner, but if there were to be an upset, SpongeBob now seems the most likely suspect. The merely serviceable score of unmemorable songs in Mean Girls poses no real threat. Meanwhile, husband and wife team Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez have beautifully augmented Frozen's score for the stage, but the Disney megamusical has left critics cold and no one can argue the multiple Oscar and Emmy winners *need* another award. And while its wonderful for Adrian Sutton that his Angels in America score was nominated, this is still at heart a musical songwriting category, and I cannot imagine Tony voters going against that with even semi-viable alternatives, which they have.

Will and Should Win: David Yazbek, The Band's Visit


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React

2018 Tony Nominee Predictions

It's that time of year again! Tony Award nominations will be announced on Tuesday, May 1st, and as always I will be doing my best to predict the nominees. While popular sentiment (including mine) states that this has not been the most exciting Broadway season in recent memory, there is still plenty of award-worthy work to be discussed, so let's get to it!

Best Musical

Erika Henningsen as Cady, Ashley Park as Gretchen, Taylor Louderman as Regina, and Kate Rockwell as Karen in Mean Girls.

Nominees: The Band's Visit; Frozen; Mean Girls; SpongeBob SquarePants
Wildcard: Prince of Broadway

This category seems pretty set in stone. The only other eligible productions, Escape to Margaritaville and Summer, are both critically reviled jukebox musicals that I can't imagine connecting with Tony voters. Band's Visit has felt like a Tony contender since the time it opened, and the eagerly anticipated Mean Girls is probably its greatest competition. Frozen is solid enough that I expect it to be nominated, but Disney's latest effort has left the critics somewhat cold. And based on the recently announced Drama Desk and Outer Critics' nominations, SpongeBob SquarePants will fulfill my prediction to be this year's "surprise" Best Musical nominee. If one of those shows somehow doesn't make the grade I suppose the Hal Prince revue Prince of Broadway could sneak in there, but that seems about as likely as Hamilton closing anytime soon.

Best Play

The cast of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child on Broadway.

Nominees: Farinelli and the King; Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Junk; Meteor Shower
Wildcard: The Children

Harry Potter and the Cursed Child's nomination and eventual win both feel like foregone conclusions at this point. It is the most awarded play in the history of London's Olivier Awards, where the new play is generally much more competitive than it is on Broadway (in the US, Off-Broadway and regional theatres are the hot spots for play development). In some kind of freaky alternate reality where Harry Potter wasn't a critically adored, money printing hit, Farinelli and the King is probably the next most likely candidate. I think Junk and Meteor Shower will get token nominations to round out the category, but I can also imagine either one being left out in favor of another British import, MTC's fall production of The Children.

Best Musical Revival

Lauren Ambrose (center) and the cast of Lincoln Center Theatre's My Fair Lady.

Nominees: Carousel; My Fair Lady; Once on this Island

There are exactly three eligible nominees in this category (Carousel, My Fair Lady, and Once on this Island), so everyone should get nominated by default. On a positive note, all three shows are strong enough to merit nominations even in a more competitive season. I suppose if the Tony voters were feeling extra ornery they could whittle this category down to two, but I have trouble believing they hate Carousel enough to do so.

Best Play Revival

Beth Malone and Andrew Garfield in Angels in America on Broadway.

Nominees: Angels in America; Lobby Hero; Three Tall Women; Travesties
Wildcard: The Iceman Cometh

This is the one category where it feels like there's a legitimate danger of a deserving show being left out of the mix. Angels in America is the clear front runner here; the play is pure Tony bait, and by all accounts the current Broadway revival is superbly done. The critics also went gaga over the Edward Albee revival Three Tall Women, and I would be shocked if the uniformly praised show was left out of the running. I also expect Second Stage to be rewarded with a Tony nod for Lobby Hero, the inaugural production of their newly renovated Broadway home, the Helen Hayes. For the final slot, I'm going with Roundabout's praised production of Tom Stoppard's Travesties, although if the heady language play proves too high brow for Tony voters the Denzel Washington fronted The Iceman Cometh could sneak in there.


Agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments! Lively discussion is the best way to keep this blog fresh and exciting for everyone.

2017 Tony Award Predictions: Best Play and Musical

The 2017 Tony Awards are this Sunday, and so we end my annual Tony predictions by tackling the two most important and prestigious races of the night, Best Play and Best Musical. A win in either of these categories has the most demonstrable and immediate effect on a show's box office, and virtually guarantees a nice, multi-year run on Broadway (especially for musicals). Which also increases the show's chances of turning a profit, going on tour, and being produced regionally, all of which allow the talented writers behind these shows to continue doing what they do best: make theatre.

As always, I will use a combination of personal opinion, critical consensus, and industry buzz to determine the most *likely* winner. This is not necessarily the most deserving winner, and should I disagree with the way Tony voters are leaning I will be certain to point it out in my analysis. Now let's get started!

Best Play

The Broadway cast of Oslo at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: A Doll's House, Part 2; Indecent; Oslo; Sweat

The Best Play Tony is a tricky one, as it functions as both a writing award and an acknowledgement of the production as a whole. Which raises the question of what Tony voters should be considering when casting their ballot; is the quality of the script the most important factor, or do they allow exceedingly well executed staging and performances lift a script that maybe isn't as strong into the top position?

This year sees two Pulitzer Prize winning playwrights make their Broadway debuts after decades of writing for the theatre. Both Lynn Nottage's Sweat and Paula Vogel's Indecent have been universally praised, with Sweat having the added benefit of winning the 2017 Pulitzer Prize for Drama (making Nottage the only woman to ever win the award multiple times). But the Pulitzer doesn't guarantee a Tony win, as shown by the Broadway production of Disgraced losing to The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time in 2015. I don't expect either show to win, but Sweat could possibly score an upset.

Considering Lucas Hnath's A Doll's House, Part 2 is the most nominated play of the season, it seems likely that the Ibsen inspired work will ultimately be crowned the winner. But J.T. Roger's historical thriller Oslo just scored the Drama Desk Award for Best Play, while Doll's House wasn't even nominated. Given Oslo's strong performance in the guild awards, I will hesitantly select it as my official pick to win, but I won't be surprised to see a different name called Sunday night.

Will Win: Oslo

Best Musical

Tony nominee Ben Platt and the cast of Dear Evan Hansen.

Nominees: Come From Away; Dear Evan Hansen; Groundhog Day; Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812

At the risk of sounding snarky, I cannot understand how Groundhog Day found itself included in this year's Best Musical race. This season saw 13 new musicals open on Broadway, and while I have not seen them all I can definitively say that Groundhog Day wouldn't place in my Top 4 (I vastly preferred the underrepresented War Paint). Perhaps Tony voters took West End critics at their word, since the London production was recently awarded the Olivier for Best Musical despite the show's many structural issues and overall lack of focus. On the bright side, I don't know anyone who expects Groundhog Day to win big on Tony night.

Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812 has the most nominations of any show this season with 12, but despite strong work in so many areas the show doesn't quite gel the way it did Off-Broadway. Something was lost in the transfer from an intimate Off-Broadway venue to the cavernous Imperial Theatre, and while many Tony voters appreciate Great Comet's bold invention and pushing of theatrical boundaries, I don't foresee it winning Best Musical on Sunday. I applaud the producers for taking the chance to bring such a risky show to a wider audience, and I'm genuinely glad for all of it's success, even if it wasn't my favorite show of the season.

The question of whether Dear Evan Hansen or Come From Away is more deserving of the Best Musical trophy is difficult. Evan Hansen is a fascinating examination of how social media has complicated the primal human need for connection and belonging, at once timely and timeless as many of the emotional stakes stem from issues that existed long before Facebook and Twitter. It has also obviously struck a chord with audiences, as evidenced by its extremely vocal fan base. But the less showy Come From Away is an equally accomplished work, an inspirational example of the boundless possibilities of human kindness in the wake of extreme tragedy. Come From Away has been honed to perfection, to the point where I'm not sure I would change a single word of the book or lyrics.

Both shows are deserving, and I would honestly support either one as this year's Best Musical winner. Ultimately, I suspect Tony voters will go with Dear Evan Hansen, which is what I would vote for if forced to choose. Both the writing and the performances stay with you long after the show ends, and despite seeing Evan Hansen back in January I find myself thinking back on that show more often than Come From Away. The mark of truly great theatre is that it affects you, however incidentally, and stays with you long after the final curtain, and while both Evan Hansen and Come From Away fulfill these requirements, Evan Hansen does so a bit more.

Will and Should Win: Dear Evan Hansen

And that brings us to the end of our 2017 Tony Award predictions! We'll know the victors by the end of Sunday night, and be sure to check back early next week for my final thoughts on this year's winners and the Tony telecast in general. In the meantime, share your thoughts in the comments and catch up on the rest of my coverage below.

Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Revival