2018 Tony Nominee Predictions

It's that time of year again! Tony Award nominations will be announced on Tuesday, May 1st, and as always I will be doing my best to predict the nominees. While popular sentiment (including mine) states that this has not been the most exciting Broadway season in recent memory, there is still plenty of award-worthy work to be discussed, so let's get to it!

Best Musical

Erika Henningsen as Cady, Ashley Park as Gretchen, Taylor Louderman as Regina, and Kate Rockwell as Karen in Mean Girls.

Nominees: The Band's Visit; Frozen; Mean Girls; SpongeBob SquarePants
Wildcard: Prince of Broadway

This category seems pretty set in stone. The only other eligible productions, Escape to Margaritaville and Summer, are both critically reviled jukebox musicals that I can't imagine connecting with Tony voters. Band's Visit has felt like a Tony contender since the time it opened, and the eagerly anticipated Mean Girls is probably its greatest competition. Frozen is solid enough that I expect it to be nominated, but Disney's latest effort has left the critics somewhat cold. And based on the recently announced Drama Desk and Outer Critics' nominations, SpongeBob SquarePants will fulfill my prediction to be this year's "surprise" Best Musical nominee. If one of those shows somehow doesn't make the grade I suppose the Hal Prince revue Prince of Broadway could sneak in there, but that seems about as likely as Hamilton closing anytime soon.

Best Play

The cast of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child on Broadway.

Nominees: Farinelli and the King; Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Junk; Meteor Shower
Wildcard: The Children

Harry Potter and the Cursed Child's nomination and eventual win both feel like foregone conclusions at this point. It is the most awarded play in the history of London's Olivier Awards, where the new play is generally much more competitive than it is on Broadway (in the US, Off-Broadway and regional theatres are the hot spots for play development). In some kind of freaky alternate reality where Harry Potter wasn't a critically adored, money printing hit, Farinelli and the King is probably the next most likely candidate. I think Junk and Meteor Shower will get token nominations to round out the category, but I can also imagine either one being left out in favor of another British import, MTC's fall production of The Children.

Best Musical Revival

Lauren Ambrose (center) and the cast of Lincoln Center Theatre's My Fair Lady.

Nominees: Carousel; My Fair Lady; Once on this Island

There are exactly three eligible nominees in this category (Carousel, My Fair Lady, and Once on this Island), so everyone should get nominated by default. On a positive note, all three shows are strong enough to merit nominations even in a more competitive season. I suppose if the Tony voters were feeling extra ornery they could whittle this category down to two, but I have trouble believing they hate Carousel enough to do so.

Best Play Revival

Beth Malone and Andrew Garfield in Angels in America on Broadway.

Nominees: Angels in America; Lobby Hero; Three Tall Women; Travesties
Wildcard: The Iceman Cometh

This is the one category where it feels like there's a legitimate danger of a deserving show being left out of the mix. Angels in America is the clear front runner here; the play is pure Tony bait, and by all accounts the current Broadway revival is superbly done. The critics also went gaga over the Edward Albee revival Three Tall Women, and I would be shocked if the uniformly praised show was left out of the running. I also expect Second Stage to be rewarded with a Tony nod for Lobby Hero, the inaugural production of their newly renovated Broadway home, the Helen Hayes. For the final slot, I'm going with Roundabout's praised production of Tom Stoppard's Travesties, although if the heady language play proves too high brow for Tony voters the Denzel Washington fronted The Iceman Cometh could sneak in there.


Agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments! Lively discussion is the best way to keep this blog fresh and exciting for everyone.

2017 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I

Although Mother Nature can't quite decide what season it is, the calendar and abundance of Broadway openings these past few weeks have made it abundantly clear it is in fact late April. Which also means that the Tony  Awards are right around the corner, and as we do every year at Broadway, Etc., it's time to start predicting the nominees!

As always, these predictions represent my best attempt at synthesizing critical consensus, audience response, personal opinion, and past Tony trends to determine which shows are most likely to be singled out on May 2nd. This has proven to be a particularly engaging season with many strong contenders but few clear frontrunners; a strong case can be made for many of the productions and performances that have graced the Broadway boards this season. To acknowledge this competitiveness and the sometimes unpredictable Tony nominators, I will be choosing a Wildcard pick in addition to my official predictions for each of the races discussed. The Wildcard represents the person or production I think is most likely to unseat one of the presumed nominees, or prompt a category expansion where Tony rules allow for it.

So without further ado, here are my first round of picks!

Best Musical

The cast of Dear Evan Hansen.

In a welcome change of pace from last year, there is no preordained winner among this season's new musicals. I absolutely adore Hamilton, but its presence last year made for a very predictable ceremony. This year there are a whopping 13 possible contenders for Best Musical, proving that the Great White Way remains a healthy breeding ground for new works.

I think there are 2 virtual locks for nominations: Dear Evan Hansen and Come From Away. Both shows received across the board raves and have many passionate fans, and it would be shocking to see either excluded from contention. At one point, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812 also appeared to be a lock for a nomination, but industry excitement for the genre-busting show has cooled considerably since its fall premiere. I still think a nomination is *likely* for Great Comet, but it is no longer guaranteed thanks to the strength of the spring musicals.

Specifically, I think both War Paint and Groundhog Day stand a strong chance of being nominated. Both shows come from respected creative teams and feature some of the buzziest performances of the season. I personally adored War Paint, and despite criticism of its structure being two predictable - the show continually cross cuts between the lives of main characters Helena Rubinstein and Elizabeth Arden - I have trouble imagining it being left off the list Tony Tuesday. Groundhog Day just won the Olivier Award for Best Musical, bolstering the awards prospects of Tim Minchin's follow-up to the beloved Matilda, although success in London no longer automatically translate to success with Tony voters the way it once did. However, Anastasia has done incredibly well with both the Drama Desk and Outer Critic's Circle nods and will give one of these shows a run for their money.

Nominees: Come From Away; Dear Evan Hansen; Groundhog Day; Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812; War Paint
Wildcard: Anastasia

Best Play

The company of Sweat.

This category is more robust than usual, and in a heartening trend most of the major contenders are new American plays (in the past, British imports have dominated this category). Between its strong reviews, current relevance, and recent Pulitzer Prize win, I have to imagine Lynne Nottage's Sweat is all but guaranteed a nomination. I also can't imagine Tony voters passing up the chance to nominate the Broadway debut of fellow Pulitzer-winning playwright and industry stalwart Paula Vogel for her provocative Indecent. And the fact based political thriller Oslo seems practically designed to court Tony voters, which coupled with great reviews makes it a virtual lock as well.

That leaves 1-2 slots open depending on how close the vote tallies are; category expansions are caused by mathematically close races as opposed to a conscious decision by Tony nominators. I actually think the premature closing of Joshua Harmon's Significant Other may help its chances. As the saying goes, absence makes the heart grow fonder, and Tony voters might realize they liked the well-realized contemporary drama more than critical notices would lead you to believe. There is also some good early buzz on A Doll's House: Part 2, though one could argue that the latter is opening too late in the season to really establish itself in the minds of voters. Then again Heisenberg, its most likely competition, has the exact opposite problem, as the two-hander opened and closed ages ago. I'm also not ready to completely rule out a surprise showing by dark horse candidate The Play That Goes Wrong, as it would be very out of character for the typically anglophile Tony voters to only nominate American plays.

Nominees: Indecent, Oslo, Significant Other, Sweat
Wildcard: Heisenberg

Best Musical Revival

Bette Midler leads the cast of Hello, Dolly!

Unlike last year's stellar crop of musical revivals, this season's contenders are a lot less artistically interesting. Not only are the revivals primarily of 80s and 90s megamusicals, which have their guilty pleasures but are hardly the pinnacle of the musical form, but both Cats and Miss Saigon remain so married to their spectacle-oriented original concepts that it can sometimes feel like Broadway is caught in a time warp. Alternatively, Sunset Boulevard has ditched the lavish physical production but retained Tony-winning star Glenn Close, again keeping the ties to the original Broadway mounting front and center.

All of that said, it must also be acknowledged that Close is absolutely sensational, both justifying Sunset's return and ensuring its inclusion among this year's Best Musical Revival nominees. The show will surely be joined by Lincoln Center's much lauded (although not by me) fall mounting of William Finn's Falsettos. And while Bette Midler's mere presence was enough to make Hello, Dolly a smash hit before the first preview, let's not forget that both the production and its star received across the board raves, making its nomination all but assured. And since the producers of the Jake Gyllenhall-led Sunday in the Park with George removed their revival from Tony consideration, that leaves one open slot which will almost certainly go to Miss Saigon, which at least pretends to be more than a direct remounting of the original.

Nominees: Falsettos; Hello, Dolly!; Miss Saigon; Sunset Boulevard
Wildcard: Cats

Best Play Revival

The cast of the Broadway revival of August Wilson's Jitney.

In most seasons, the fall produces the brunt of play revivals, presumably because that's when the movie stars needed to guarantee financing/ticket sales are usually free. But in a surprising change of pace, it looks like the majority of nominees in this category will come from the second half of the season. Manhattan Theatre Club is looking likely to be double nominated this year thanks to its critically acclaimed productions of August Wilson's Jitney and Lillian Hellman's The Little Foxes; I challenge anyone to find a negative word written about either show. The Kevin Kline led Present Laughter also seems well positioned for a nomination, as does the Allison Janney fronted Six Degrees of Separation. That's technically a full category right there, although the much-lauded Front Page from the fall seems destined to make the cut as well. The only show that seems at all likely to disrupt this quintet is Roundabout's starry mounting of The Price, which could take the place of the oft-revived Present Laughter if enough Tony nominators have tired of seeing Noel Coward's comedy trotted out every decade or so.

Nominees: The Front Page, Jitney, The Little Foxes, Present Laughter, Six Degrees of Separation
Wildcard: The Price


Agree with my predictions? Think I'm wildly off base? Let me know in the comments, and check back Sunday for my predictions for the major acting races!

2016 Tony Award Predictions: Revival

The 2016 Tony Awards will be handed out in just over 24 hours, and my annual predictions have finally reached the production categories. These are the biggest awards of the night, as a win in one of these categories can have a massive effect on a show's box office fortunes. Shows that were struggling to find audiences prior to the Tony Awards often become sold out hits after winning, and while it cannot be proven I'd wager that most shows which win Best Revival run longer than they would have otherwise (unless the winner was already closed when the awards are handed out).

As always, I will use a combination of gut feelings and industry buzz to predict the most likely winners in each category. And if I disagree with the likely winner, I will be sure to point out which show I think is more deserving of Broadway's highest honor in my comments.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Revival of a Play

Mark Strong and the cast of A View from the Bridge

Nominees: Blackbird, The Crucible, Long Day's Journey Into Night, Noises Off, A View from the Bridge

There are some very solid productions in this category, but I have trouble imagining the majority of them actually winning. While well reviewed, I think the subject matter of Blackbird (a victim of child molestation confronting the man who abused her 15 years later) is off-putting to enough voters that they will shy away from voting it Best Revival. And while The Crucible has been doing well with both critics and audiences, it is clearly the lesser of this season's two Arthur Miller revivals in most people's minds.

I absolutely adored Noises Off, and if the show was still running I think it would be a real contender to win. Anyone who has attempted comedy knows how hard it is, and the ensemble of this revival pulled off the show's physical comedy and quirky ensemble work effortlessly. But Noised Off closed back in March, being replaced at the American Airlines Theatre by the much weightier Long Day's Journey Into Night. I personally found Noises Off to be the more successful production, but if a Roundabout play wins this category it will likely be Night, which just feels like a more important and award-worthy play. 

Ultimately though, I think director Ivo van Hove's avant garde production of A View from the Bridge will take this prize. Despite being closed for months, it is a production that absolutely wowed the industry this past winter thanks to its daring directorial concept and design approach. The production was so fresh and new that many critics were taken by surprise by plot points and moments of stage business that have always been in the oft-revived show. This is a production I suspect will be remembered for years to come, and will win both on its own merits and as a way to honor Ivo van Hove's impressive year of work.

Will Win: A View from the Bridge

Should Win: Noises Off

Best Revival of a Musical

Zachary Levi and Laura Benanti share a picture-perfect embrace during Roundabout's standout She Loves Me.

Nominees: The Color Purple, Fiddler on the Roof, She Loves Me, Spring Awakening

This is an outstanding category, as a convincing case could be made for any one of these shows taking home the Best Musical Revival prize. Of the four, I'd say Fiddler is the "weakest," but even then it has a towering performance by Danny Burstein and a freshly illuminating take on well-known material to its credit. It is also currently running, which probably makes it more competitive than Spring Awakening despite the latter being a much more interesting and artistically daring endeavor. Unlike some, I am not enamored with Spring Awakening as a show, but I did love Deaf West's endlessly fascinating production, which incorporated both spoken English and American Sign Language into the performance. I know a lot of industry folks were deeply moved by Awakening, and if any closed production could manage to triumph over three currently running shows it would probably be this one.

But The Color Purple and She Loves Me are both exceptional, and the current front runners. Working in The Color Purple's favor is its completely reconceived approach to the material and a sensational, likely Tony-winning performance by leading lady Cynthia Erivo. This staging caused a lot of critics to reassess The Color Purple as a piece of theatrical writing after dismissing the original production as overwrought, the hallmark of a good revival. But I do have some reservations about a couple of John Doyle's directorial choices and several of the supporting performances, while I struggle to find even one negative thing to say about the absolutely exquisite She Loves Me. Roundabouts sparkling revival is pretty much perfect, a gem of a musical romance that is one of the most transporting evenings in the theatre I've had all year. Heading into Tony season, The Color Purple was the clear favorite in this category, and may well still win, but She Loves Me has been steadily gaining steam to the point where I honestly think it will emerge as one of the happiest surprises of the night.

Will & Should Win: She Loves Me

Agree or disagree? Let me know! And don't forget to check out the rest of my 2016 Tony coverage below.

Nominee React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor 

Best Actress

2016 Tony Nominations React

Former Book of Mormon costars Nikki M. James and Andrew Rannells announce the 2016 Tony Award nominees.

They're here! The 2016 Tony Award nominations have been announced, and now the awards season can begin in earnest (you can view a full list of the nominees here). We'll get to my reactions to yesterday's news in a moment, but first it's time to see how I did with my annual predictions.

Below are the actual nominees in the Big 12 categories I predicted over the past couple of weeks. Nominees with an asterisk are ones I correctly prediction; if the asterisk is in parentheses, that means I listed the nominee as a wildcard pick but not an official choice.

Best Musical
Bright Star
Hamilton*
School of Rock(*)
Shuffle Along*
Waitress*

Best Play
Eclipsed*
The Father*
The Humans*
King Charles III*

Best Musical Revival
The Color Purple*
Fiddler on the Roof*
She Loves Me*
Spring Awakening*

Best Play Revival
Blackbird*
The Crucible*
Long Day's Journey Into Night*
Noises Off*
A View from the Bridge*

Best Actor in a Musical
Alex Brightman, School of Rock*
Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof*
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me(*)
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton*
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton*

Best Actor in a Play
Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night*
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird*
Frank Langella, The Father*
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III*
Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge*

Best Actress in a Musical
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me*
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star(*)
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple*
Jessie Mueller, Waitress*
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton*

Best Actress in a Play
Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night*
Laurie Metcalf, Misery
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed*
Sophie Okonedo, The Crucible
Michelle Williams, Blackbird*

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton*
Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along 
Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress*
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton*
Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

Best Featured Actor in a Play
Reed Birney, The Humans*
Bill Camp, The Crucible
David Furr, Noises Off*
Richard Goulding, King Charles III 
Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night*

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple*
Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton*
Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me*
Jennifer Simard, Disaster!
Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along

Best Featured Actress in a Play
Pascale Armand, Eclipsed*
Megan Hilty, Noises Off*
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Andrea Martin, Noises Off*
Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed*

For those keeping score at home, I correctly predicted 45 out of 58 nominees, or 78%. When wildcard picks that made the cut are taken into account, that increases to 48 out of 58 correct predictions, or 83%. This is slightly better than my 77% success rate last year when wildcards were taken into account.

I'm pretty proud of these results. I had a 100% accuracy rating in the Best Play, Best Musical Revival, Best Play Revival, and Best Actor in a Play categories, and wildcard picks allow me to add Best Actor and Actress in a Musical to that group. I'm a little mad at myself for missing Featured Actress in a Play thanks to my own oversight; I was going to include Jayne Houdyshell in my Best Actress predictions until I realized she wasn't eligible, and made a mental note to put her in Featured Actress but forgot.

When it comes to surprises in this year's nominees, there are a few big ones. I would say the most shocking is the strong showing of Bright Star, which managed 5 overall nominations including high profile nods in the Best Musical and Best Actress in a Musical categories. The Steve Martin-penned, bluegrass-scored musical has been struggling at the box office since previews began, and I honestly had it pegged as being one of the first shows to post a closing notice after a poor showing this morning (that dubious honor unfortunately went to Disaster!). These nominations mean Bright Star's producers will surely keep things running through the Tony ceremony, and it may even be the start of the show's fortunes turning around.

I am honestly gobsmacked to see Audra McDonald excluded from the Best Actress in a Musical race. This is only the second time in her lengthy career that the most awarded performer in Tony history has failed to net at least a nomination in her eligible category. This is even more puzzling considering that Shuffle Along did very well overall, with 10 nominations spread throughout multiple categories.

It's also clear that Tony voters did not go for American Psycho as much as I thought they would. While I have heard the show is divisive, its strong showing in the other awards races tricked me into assuming it would make a much stronger showing here. We'll see if that has any affect on the show's box office over the next few months.

Some other noteworthy thoughts:

-Hamilton can add another record to its lengthy list of achievements. Thanks to multiple acting nods, it is now the most nominated show in Tony history with 16 total nominations, breaking the record jointly held by The Producers and Billy Elliot. If Hamilton manages to sweep the awards, it will have won a total of 13 statuettes, thereby also breaking The Producers' record for most Tony wins. I find this unlikely thanks to stiff competition in the acting categories, but it is possible!

-I am *thrilled* to see Zachary Levi make the cut in the Best Actor in a Musical race. He absolutely nailed his role in what is probably my second favorite production of the season (after Hamilton of course), and 110% deserves this nomination.

-There is obviously some close competition in the production categories, as the only way to force category expansions is by having very close votes during the nominations process. Since Best Musical, Best Musical Revival, and Best Play Revival all have one more than the minimum number of slots required, several shows must have been neck and neck.

-Overall I am extremely happy with these nominees. The only person I'm inclined to say was snubbed is Audra McDonald, who is excellent as always in Shuffle Along (review coming soon!), but having not seen all the nominated performances I cannot definitely say she was unfairly excluded from what is a very competitive category.

*Sidenote: I only consider someone having been "snubbed" if I can look at one of the nominated performers and honestly say I would exclude the nominee for the person who was overlooked.

Over the coming weeks, there will be plenty more Tony coverage here at Broadway, Etc., including my annual predictions of the winners. This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting, competitive seasons in recent memory even with the presumed dominance of Hamilton in the writing and production categories, and I can't wait to discuss it with all of you. Keep an eye on this space for more predictions and reviews as the countdown to June 12th has officially begun!

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

And just like that, Tony season is almost upon us! It's hard to believe that in just a few short days, Patina Miller and Andrew Rannells will wake up at an ungodly hour and announce the names of those competing for Broadway's highest honor. And just like every year, I plan on predicting, discussing, and dissecting every minute of what has evolved into one of the most exciting theatre seasons in years.

The number of positively reviewed productions this year is quite astounding. Very few shows have been outright panned by the critics, making a lot of this year's Tony races unpredictable in the most exciting way possible. Even with Hamilton looking to dominate the new musical awards, there's still plenty of worthwhile competition for the other Best Musical slots, not to mention the acting and play categories. All of this makes predicting the nominees a challenge, but that's never stopped me before!

As always, I will do my best to predict the nominees in the Big 12 Tony categories (my term for the 4 production and 8 acting awards). Thanks to the updated Tony rules, all of these categories have a variable number of slots available, which makes things extra tricky. Given past history, I will assume the Tony committee will err towards a smaller number of nominations, but I will always pick a Wildcard nominee that I think will either force a category expansion or replace one of my official picks.

We'll find out who actually gets nominated on May 3rd, but in the meantime here are my best guesses as to which productions will find themselves competing for Best Musical, Play, and Revival.

UPDATED: Shuffle Along has officially been ruled a new musical, so I have updated my predictions accordingly.

Best Musical

Lin-Manuel Miranda in a little show no one's ever heard of called Hamilton.

Hamilton's place in this category is assured; pretending otherwise is ludicrous, especially after its recent Pulitzer Prize win. The real question is what other shows will make the cut, with some varied and exciting options presenting themselves.

Both On Your Feet and School of Rock managed to snag surprisingly encouraging reviews when they opened this fall, and either production could well be among next week's Best Musical nominees. I personally feel School of Rock is the more respected of the two shows, and a welcome return to form for theatrical titan Andrew Lloyd Webber, but On Your Feet's Outer Critic's Circle nomination (and School of Rock's absence) leave both shows neck and neck.

As for the spring shows, Waitress and American Psycho are the top two contenders, and I expect both to be among this year's nominees. Waitress is virtually assured a slot, thanks to its almost universally positive notices. I also can't see the Tony committee failing to nominate the first Broadway musical with an entirely female creative team in a season where diversity both on and off stage has been such a hot button topic. American Psycho was a more divisive show, but those who enjoyed it seemed to really enjoy it, and thanks to the Tony's weighted nomination system being a few people's top choice counts for more than being many people's third or fourth choice.

And then there's Shuffle Along. The producers of this star-studded musical are pushing to have it compete in the Revival category, presumably to avoid direct competition with Hamilton. This seems like a dubious argument to me, as director George C. Wolfe has written an entirely new libretto that turns the show into a backstage musical about the genesis of its 1921 namesake. In the past, heavily rewritten revivals have at least kept the same plot and characters as the originals, so I expect the nominations committee to deem these changes enough to make Shuffle Along a new musical, putting it in contention for Best Musical. (This is exactly what happened.)

Nominees: American Psycho, Hamilton, Shuffle Along, Waitress
Wildcard: School of Rock

Best Play

The Broadway cast of Stephen Karam's The Humans.

Quite honestly, this is a much less interesting and competitive category than Best Musical. Given the strength of its reviews and the fact that it was named a finalist for the 2016 Pulitzer Prize, I think The Humans is the frontrunner not just for the nomination but for the win. I will also be very surprised if Danai Gurira's much praised Eclipsed fails to score a Best Play nomination. And although the show has been closed for several months at this point, King Charles III made such a strong impression on critics this past fall it seems all-but-guaranteed a nomination.

Which leaves the fourth nomination slot up for grabs, with several viable options available. The Father recently scored Drama League and Outer Critics' nominations for Best Play, and seems to be the most likely contender. That said, Roundabout Theatre Company's adaptation of Therese Raquin had enough supporters that it cannot be ruled out of the competition, and the well reviewed An Act of God is technically part of this season despite opening last May. The fact that it is about to begin a return engagement starring Sean Hayes will remind people that it exists, giving the satiric play a chance at a wildcard spot in this year's race.

Nominees: Eclipsed, The Father, The Humans, King Charles III
Wildcard: Therese Raquin

Best Musical Revival

Two time Tony-nominee Gavin Creel and Tony-winner Jane Krakowski in Roundabout's sterling She Loves Me revival.

Let me preface this by saying that it has been an absolutely *stellar* year for musical revivals. As far as I'm concerned, every production eligible in this category is worthy of at least a Tony nomination, and I'm not sure I've ever felt that way about any category before. Unfortunately, not every show can be nominated, which means at least one deserving production will be overlooked when the Tony committee announces their 3-4 nominees.

Let's start with sure things. John Doyle's minimalist staging of The Color Purple won across the board raves, and in the eyes of many critics redeemed the show from its less well-received premiere (which I personally loved). It is a shoe-in for a nomination, and at this point is probably the frontrunner to win. She Loves Me is also a practically perfect production of a less well-known musical, and I will be shocked/furious if Roundabout's effortlessly charming revival does not receive at least a nomination.

After those two shows, things get tricky. History has shown time and again that currently running productions do better with the Tony committee, which makes a Fiddler on the Roof nomination highly likely. Yet I would say that after the above-named sure things, the most artistically successful and interesting musical revival this season was the Deaf West production of Spring Awakening. Should this category have the traditional four nominees, then those are your two final slots. Should only three shows get nominated, then I honestly don't know which one the Tony voters will favor, and it will result in some justified cries of "snub" either way. Poor Dames at Sea, while highly enjoyable, seems destined to be forgotten.

Nominees: The Color Purple, Fiddler on the Roof, She Loves Me, Spring Awakening
Wildcard: Dames at Sea

Best Play Revival

Saoirse Ronan and the cast of Ivo van Hove's avant garde The Crucible.

This category is particularly stuffed this year, with a whopping 11 eligible productions competing for the 4-5 available slots. Roundabout's first-rate revival of the hilarious Noises Off looks like a sure thing when it comes to getting a nomination, and although their Long Day's Journey Into Night isn't the top tier production I'd hope for, a decent Long Day's Journey is still better than most other play revivals, making it a strong contender. I suspect that avant garde director Ivo van Hove's two rapturously received Arthur Miller revivals (last fall's A View from the Bridge and the currently running The Crucible) will both get nominated, although there is a *slight* possibility that Tony voters only nominate one in favor of spreading the wealth around.

Unlike most categories, I feel like there is a strong possibility of this race expanding beyond the minimum four nominees. Picking which production gets the fifth slot is tricky however, as most of the other play revivals this season have been liked but not loved. Blackbird's difficult subject matter seemed to be off-putting to a large number of critics, even as they all admitted the show was staged and acted wonderfully. Fool for Love was very well liked when it opened last fall, but given the sheer volume of play revivals this season it will likely be overlooked. And I don't think the community's love of James Earl Jones and Cecily Tyson is quite enough to get The Gin Game nominated, as most reviewers agreed the play had not aged well despite the quality of the performances in it. Blackbird remains my official pick, but its slot could really go to anyone (or disappear all together).

Nominees: Blackbird, The Crucible, Long Day's Journey Into Night, Noises Off, A View from the Bridge
Wildcard: Fool for Love


Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments, and be sure to check back in a couple of days to see my Best Actor/Actress predictions!

Extremely Early 2016 Tony Predictions: Part I

The Christmas decorations are packed away, we're beginning to see which New Year's resolutions are actually going to stick, and the weather has become decidedly cold and snowy. It is definitely late January in New York City, which means we're just over halfway through the 2015-2016 Broadway season. As has become tradition here at Broadway Etc., I am once again taking stock of the new crop of fall shows to see which ones are in the best position to be remembered when the Tony Award nominations are announced on May 3rd.

As always, handicapping the Tony Awards in an inexact science, but based on some historical trends along with good old fashioned gut instinct I'm ready to make some predictions. Of course, anything can happen depending on how well or poorly the spring shows are received, but here's my take on how things stand so far.

Best Musical

Thomas Jefferson's (Daveed Diggs) coming home...to the Tony Awards.

I know it's early in the season and there are a *lot* of new musicals scheduled to open in the spring, but I think it's safe to call this category for Hamilton. It is easily the most important musical of the 21st century, and I honestly believe future generations will talk about this show the same way we talk about groundbreaking works like A Chorus Line and Rent. It's also just really fucking good, a near perfect fusion of writing, direction, and performances that has floored everyone who's been lucky enough to snag a ticket. As for what other shows will be competing against Lin-Manuel Miranda's hip-hop juggernaut, at this point only On Your Feet and School of Rock seem to be viable contenders. Whether either makes the cut largely depends on whether the Tony committee ends up selecting four or five Best Musical nominees, as the spring musicals would have to be rather disappointing to not account for at least half of this category. I will give the slight edge to Andrew Lloyd Webber's return to form with School of Rock, as a lot of critics seemed skeptical of their enjoyment of On Your Feet, but regardless of what happens I expect a healthy Broadway and regional life for both productions.

Best Play

The (future) Royal Family, as portrayed in British import King Charles III.

This fall has been fantastic for everything except new plays on Broadway. Of the five eligible productions, only British import King Charles III received the kind of critical accolades that will help Tony voters remember it come May (all of the fall plays will be closed by the time Tony nominations are announced). At this point China Doll and Misery are best known for the shortcomings of their famous headliners - both of whom are rumored to be getting line prompts via earpiece - than for the quality of their scripts, and Our Mother's Brief Affair has been met with the kind of muted enthusiasm that often greets Manhattan Theatre Club productions. The fact that Roundabout's divisive Therese Raquin is even a possibility speaks to the uncompetitive nature of the fall plays, but I suspect King Charles is the only we'll actually be talking about come Tony Tuesday.

Best Revival of a Musical

The Color Purple headliners Cynthia Erivo and Jennifer Hudson are blowing the roof off that theatre nightly.

This has already been an amazing season for musical revivals, and in my opinion every one thus far has been at least nomination worthy. That said, unless something goes horribly wrong I have to imagine that Roundabout's spring revival of She Loves Me makes the cut, and if Shuffle Along is ruled a revival then it stands a strong chance of getting one of the four Best Musical Revival nominations (there aren't enough eligible productions to allow for the addition of a fifth nominee). John Doyle's sensational striped down production of The Color Purple is the safest bet for inclusion in the category, and at this point looks likely to take the whole thing. Bartlett Sher also seems to have a standing invitation to the Tony Awards, and regardless of what you think about the modern dress framing device he added to Fiddler on the Roof the rest of the production is so well done I can't imagine it being left out. At this point, there's a legitimate chance that Deaf West's highly effective Spring Awakening gets ignored to make room for Shuffle Along (the latter's producers are pushing hard for a revival classification), and that seems almost criminal. This is the most competitive by far of the production categories, and is almost certain to result in at least one legitimate snub.

Best Revival of a Play

There's no stronger critical catnip than British actors digging into a meaty drama, as the ecstatic reception of this season's A View from the Bridge proves.

This is the category that tends to change the least between the fall and the spring, as most of the eligible productions are limited runs that have opened and closed by the time winter rolls around. From the fall crop of play revivals, I would say two are almost guaranteed to be among this year's Tony nominees: the critically lauded A View from the Bridge and Noises Off. Should a third play from the fall make the cut, it's a toss up between Fool for Love, The Gin Game, and Sylvia. I will give the slight edge to Fool for Love for being the most respected piece of writing of the bunch, as it is very hard to be competitive in this category without strong writing. Despite the love for stars James Earl Jones and Cecily Tyson, the most common response to this fall's revival of The Gin Game seemed to be, "How did this win the Pulitzer?" Meanwhile, Sylvia is most likely to be remembered for Annaleigh Ashford's star turn as the titular pooch, which could well land the actress among this year's nominees for Best Actress in a Play.


That's my take on where the production categories currently stand. Check back soon for my thoughts on the acting races, and in the meantime don't be afraid to share your thoughts in the comments!

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

The Tony Awards take place this Sunday, and about the only talk you'll hear on the Great White Way is speculation on who will win the coveted spinning medallions. I've already explored the writers, directors, and actors I suspect will win Broadway's highest honor, so now it's finally time to tackle the production awards. Whereas the other Tony categories honor individual excellence, the four production awards recognize the collective efforts of the many artists responsible for producing any piece of theatre. These awards are also the most likely to affect a show's box office fortunes, which make them the most desired honors in the entire theatrical community.

As always, I will be predicting who will win, which does not necessarily align with who I would like to win. Should there be a major discrepancy, I will be certain to point it out in my analysis. At the same time, it bears repeating that all of the shows nominated in these categories have plenty of artistic merit, so even if I personally think a different show should win it doesn't mean the likely winner is undeserving. Now read on to find out which of this season's revivals are most likely to strike Tony gold.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Revival of a Play

The Tony nominated cast of The Elephant Man.

 

Nominees: The Elephant Man; Skylight; This is Our Youth; You Can't Take It With You

This is the unusual category where the majority of nominees are long closed, giving the sole currently running production (West End import Skylight) a tangible advantage over its competitors. In fact, each production's likelihood of winning seems to correlate with how much time has passed since its closing date. The fact that This Is Our Youth was nominated at all remains one of the bigger surprises of this Tony season, as the production struggled at the box office throughout its limited run and closed back in early January. I would be shocked should it actually win, just as I would be similarly surprised to see the well-liked You Can't Take It With You triumph over the weightier dramas in this category (Tony voters tend to be biased against comedies, even ones that have won the Pulitzer Prize).

Although Skylight scored very strong notices, I actually think the Bradley Cooper led Elephant Man will be triumphant this year. That starry revival exceeded all expectations both artistically and at the box office; it was the talk of the town during its limited engagement, and the fact all three principal actors are nominated for Tony Awards shows what a strong impression they and the production made. The feeling towards Skylight seems respectful rather than passionate, which I think will ultimately be the British import's downfall. Then again, absolutely no one expected A Raisin in the Sun to triumph in this category last year, which makes me wary of another surprise this year. I am still officially predicting The Elephant Man, but it only has a slight advantage against its currently running competitor.

Will & Should Win: The Elephant Man

 

Best Revival of a Musical
 

I know I don't predict technical awards on this blog, but The King and I is totally winning Best Costumes. Look at that DRESS!

 

Nominees: The King and I; On the Town; On the Twentieth Century

This category is the most cut and dry of the production categories. Arguments can be made for the exuberant On the Town and better than expected On the Twentieth Century, but neither production can compete with the unadulterated brilliance of Lincoln Center's The King and I. Bartlett Sher's masterful revival of the oft-produced Rodgers and Hammerstein classic has been deemed a definitive production by many in the industry, and is my personal favorite production of this Broadway season (new, revival, musical, or otherwise). Expertly acted, superbly sung, and visually stunning, it calls to mind everything wonderful about the traditional Broadway musical without ever feeling dated or tired.

Should The King and I fail to win this category I would strongly disagree, but could at least accept a victory for the incredibly entertaining On the Town. That production does everything a revival should; it takes a long forgotten show and makes the piece feel exciting, relevant, and fresh again, resulting in one of the most unceasingly entertaining productions of the season. On the Twentieth Century would be a harder choice to defend, as despite a top notch cast the script is starting to show its age. In fact, without leading lady Kristin Chenoweth and the oafish Andy Karl I think the show would be forgotten almost the moment it ends. But these are all a moot points, as Lincoln Center has been the front runner for this award since The King and I was even rumored. The fact the resulting production meets and in my opinion surpasses their much beloved South Pacific from several seasons back just seals the deal.

Will & Should Win: The King and I

Check back this Friday for my take on the two most important races of the season, Best Play and Best Musical. In the meantime, feel free to catch up on the rest of my Tony coverage below!

Nominations React

Best Book & Score

Best Direction & Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor

Best Actress