2015 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

The Tony Awards take place this Sunday, and about the only talk you'll hear on the Great White Way is speculation on who will win the coveted spinning medallions. I've already explored the writers, directors, and actors I suspect will win Broadway's highest honor, so now it's finally time to tackle the production awards. Whereas the other Tony categories honor individual excellence, the four production awards recognize the collective efforts of the many artists responsible for producing any piece of theatre. These awards are also the most likely to affect a show's box office fortunes, which make them the most desired honors in the entire theatrical community.

As always, I will be predicting who will win, which does not necessarily align with who I would like to win. Should there be a major discrepancy, I will be certain to point it out in my analysis. At the same time, it bears repeating that all of the shows nominated in these categories have plenty of artistic merit, so even if I personally think a different show should win it doesn't mean the likely winner is undeserving. Now read on to find out which of this season's revivals are most likely to strike Tony gold.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Revival of a Play

The Tony nominated cast of The Elephant Man.

 

Nominees: The Elephant Man; Skylight; This is Our Youth; You Can't Take It With You

This is the unusual category where the majority of nominees are long closed, giving the sole currently running production (West End import Skylight) a tangible advantage over its competitors. In fact, each production's likelihood of winning seems to correlate with how much time has passed since its closing date. The fact that This Is Our Youth was nominated at all remains one of the bigger surprises of this Tony season, as the production struggled at the box office throughout its limited run and closed back in early January. I would be shocked should it actually win, just as I would be similarly surprised to see the well-liked You Can't Take It With You triumph over the weightier dramas in this category (Tony voters tend to be biased against comedies, even ones that have won the Pulitzer Prize).

Although Skylight scored very strong notices, I actually think the Bradley Cooper led Elephant Man will be triumphant this year. That starry revival exceeded all expectations both artistically and at the box office; it was the talk of the town during its limited engagement, and the fact all three principal actors are nominated for Tony Awards shows what a strong impression they and the production made. The feeling towards Skylight seems respectful rather than passionate, which I think will ultimately be the British import's downfall. Then again, absolutely no one expected A Raisin in the Sun to triumph in this category last year, which makes me wary of another surprise this year. I am still officially predicting The Elephant Man, but it only has a slight advantage against its currently running competitor.

Will & Should Win: The Elephant Man

 

Best Revival of a Musical
 

I know I don't predict technical awards on this blog, but The King and I is totally winning Best Costumes. Look at that DRESS!

 

Nominees: The King and I; On the Town; On the Twentieth Century

This category is the most cut and dry of the production categories. Arguments can be made for the exuberant On the Town and better than expected On the Twentieth Century, but neither production can compete with the unadulterated brilliance of Lincoln Center's The King and I. Bartlett Sher's masterful revival of the oft-produced Rodgers and Hammerstein classic has been deemed a definitive production by many in the industry, and is my personal favorite production of this Broadway season (new, revival, musical, or otherwise). Expertly acted, superbly sung, and visually stunning, it calls to mind everything wonderful about the traditional Broadway musical without ever feeling dated or tired.

Should The King and I fail to win this category I would strongly disagree, but could at least accept a victory for the incredibly entertaining On the Town. That production does everything a revival should; it takes a long forgotten show and makes the piece feel exciting, relevant, and fresh again, resulting in one of the most unceasingly entertaining productions of the season. On the Twentieth Century would be a harder choice to defend, as despite a top notch cast the script is starting to show its age. In fact, without leading lady Kristin Chenoweth and the oafish Andy Karl I think the show would be forgotten almost the moment it ends. But these are all a moot points, as Lincoln Center has been the front runner for this award since The King and I was even rumored. The fact the resulting production meets and in my opinion surpasses their much beloved South Pacific from several seasons back just seals the deal.

Will & Should Win: The King and I

Check back this Friday for my take on the two most important races of the season, Best Play and Best Musical. In the meantime, feel free to catch up on the rest of my Tony coverage below!

Nominations React

Best Book & Score

Best Direction & Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor

Best Actress

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part II

Because my love of the Tony Awards cannot be contained to a mere six weeks in the spring, I am once again using the winter lull in Broadway activity to assess the Tony prospects of last fall's shows. I've already discussed my thoughts on the production categories, meaning it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress awards.

This year sees a potentially game changing new rule allowing up to seven nominees in each of the acting categories, which is highly exciting but also makes any predictions that much harder. Since a tie in the nominations process is required to activate a category expansion I doubt we'll see it occur across the board, and after last year's Best Musical controversy I think it's best to assume the committee will err towards less rather than more nominees. With a large number of productions slated to open in the next few months that will surely produce some awards buzz, I'm also going to limit my discussion here to those performers I think have made particularly strong critical impressions.

Warning: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Actor in a Musical

Tony Yazbeck is giving a helluva performance in the triumphant Broadway return of On the Town.

The currently aren't a lot of performers who qualify in this category, but a couple of them already look like sure things. Tony Yazbeck is a hard-working and well-respected triple threat who's been given the role of his career in the top notch revival of On the Town. Yazbeck knocks it out of the park with his beautifully sung and gorgeously danced Gabey, and I would be shocked if he didn't at least score a nomination. I also expect Honeymoon in Vegas' Rob McClure to be among the lucky few on April 28th, especially since his current vehicle is much more deserving of the mercurial actor's many talents than the ill-fated Chaplin (for which he was also nominated). If there weren't so many male-fronted musicals on the horizon I would be more optimistic about Michael Esper's chances for his accomplished work in The Last Ship, but that show's early closing will be a difficult obstacle to overcome. There's also a very slim chance McClure's costar Tony Danza scores a nod, although I suspect he might be demoted to the supporting actor race despite his above the title billing.

Best Actor in a Play

Recent Julliard graduate Alex Sharp (right) astounds in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, a performance made all the more impressive by the fact that it's his Broadway debut. 

This is, hands down, the most competitive acting category at the moment. If any race is going to prompt an expansion in the number of nominees, it will be this one, which features a glut of deserving talent even before the upcoming spring shows are taken into account. It would be downright criminal to deny a nomination to The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's Alex Sharp, the Julliard graduate whose Broadway debut is more layered, nuanced, and compelling than many Broadway veterans. And while Bradley Cooper's name certainly helped generate initial interest in The Elephant Man, it's his universally praised performance as the titular character that has made that revival one of the season's hottest tickets. Both Sharp and Cooper are virtual locks.

Very close behind them is Broadway favorite Hugh Jackman, although The River has proven divisive enough as a play that it might hinder his Tony chances. On the other hand, even critics who were lukewarm on the production were impressed with the Jackman's performance, with several calling it the best of his Broadway career. It would be very surprising to see Jackman's name excluded when the nominations are announced, but the category is so competitive he may wind up as one of this year's high profile snubs. A case can also be made for Jake Gyllenhaal in his well-reviewed Broadway debut, but my feeling is that several of the spring plays will have to disappoint for the trippy Constellations to have any real awards momentum come April. And while Nathan Lane is one of our most reliable talents and was easily the best thing about the disappointing It's Only a Play, I just don't know if there's space for him among this year's nominees. If there's going to be a wildcard among the lead actors, it would be Disgraced's Hari Dhillon, but in all honesty I think the category is just too crowded for him to make the cut.

Best Actress in a Musical

Brynn O'Malley (right) gets romanced by a crooning Tony Danza in the fun-filled musical romp Honeymoon in Vegas.

I want to go on record saying Brynn O'Malley needs a Tony nomination for her standout work in Honeymoon in Vegas; her performance was my favorite thing about Jason Robert Brown's highly enjoyable musical comedy. She has little chance of actually winning, especially with new roles for Tony darlings Kelli O'Hara, Kristin Chenoweth, and Chita Rivera on the horizon, but I'm really hoping the committee includes O'Malley's name among those announced on April 28th (I think they will). I also have a soft spot for Side Show's Erin Davie and Emily Padgett, perfectly matched as conjoined twins Daisy and Violet Hilton, but I fear their show will be too long gone by the time nominations are doled out. While it would be nice to see the pair win a joint nomination like their predecessors Alice Ripley and Emily Skinner did in 1998, I have a sneaking suspicion these talented ladies will be considered individually and split votes to the point neither gets nominated. Should the category expand to six or seven nominees, there's also an outside chance The Last Ship's Rachel Tucker gets nominated for her performance as the conflicted Meg Dawson, but that scenario involves one or more of the spring's actresses turning in an unexpectedly subpar performance.

Best Actress in a Play

Three time Tony winner Glenn Close returned to Broadway in the well reviewed revival of A Delicate Balance, but the curiously buzz free production may well be forgotten by the time Tony Awards are handed out.

Most of the big names in plays this fall were men, which leaves the Best Actress category with more breathing room. It also makes this race more unpredictable, as it could go any number of ways. Glenn Close's much anticipated Broadway return in A Delicate Balance was well received and certainly makes the three-time Tony winner a contender, although that production has virtually no buzz around it. As a member of Disgraced's much praised ensemble Gretchen Mol also merits consideration, and may be the one actor from the incendiary play that actually manages to score a nomination. I would also keep an eye on Constellations' Ruth Wilson, as the two-time Olivier Award winner is a big part of why that reality-spanning love story went over so well with critics. The Real Thing's Maggie Gyllenhaal might even slip in here if the category does expand, although I have to imagine at least one of the slots is reserved for Helen Mirren's Queen Elizabeth II in this spring's The Audience.


Those are my thoughts on where the lead actor and actress races currently stand; feel free to share your picks in the comments. And for more of my 2015 Tony Awards coverage, check out below:

Tony Awards Rule Change
Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part I

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part I

Given my unabashed enthusiasm for predicting the Tony Awards, last year I decided to take a midseason look at the likely nominees for the Big 12 categories (re: production and acting), and those posts ended up being some of the most popular in the blog's history. So I'm at it again this year, taking stock of all the shows that have already opened to see who has made a big enough impression to be remembered when the Tony Award nominations are announced on April 28th. As the Tonys historically favor spring shows, only the people and productions who have made incredibly strong critical and/or commercial showings can really be considered contenders at this point. So which productions do I think have done just that? Find out below!

WARNING: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Musical

Tony Danza and Rob McClure in the year's best new musical thus far, Jason Robert Brown's fun-filled Honeymoon in Vegas.

There are currently only three shows eligible in this category, and the chances of Holler If Ya Hear Me scoring a Best Musical nod after its disastrously short run in early June are almost non-existent. It is tempting to say the two other new musicals, The Last Ship and Honeymoon in Vegas, will both make the Tonys' shortlist, but by only selecting four Best Musical contenders last year the nominations committee proved that just because they can nominate five shows doesn't mean they will. With a host of high profile new musicals slated for the spring, I suspect that we will only see one nominee from this fall's batch of shows. After all, I have to imagine Pulitzer Prize finalist Fun Home will get a Best Musical nod, and with anticipated shows like Finding Neverland, Something Rotten, and Doctor Zhivago on the horizon things look particularly grim for the already shuttered Last Ship. In addition to scoring stronger reviews, Honeymoon at least has a chance at running into the spring (although its box office will need to improve quickly), which makes it the closest to a sure thing we have right now. And for the record, I do expect to see five Best Musical nominees this year; I just expect the majority of them to come from the seven productions slated to open in the spring.

Best Play

One of many eye-popping images from the spectacular London import The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

This is already a strongly competitive category, with Disgraced, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, and Constellations all scoring across the board raves. Unless the spring slate of new plays is particularly weak, at least one of these shows will likely be omitted despite a probable five Best Play nominees. Curious Incident is in the best position, having earned a mention on many Best of 2014 lists (including my own) thanks to its eye-popping staging and engrossing portrayal of an autistic teen's struggle to clear his good name. I would consider the show a virtual lock for a nomination and a strong contender to actually win. One would think Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced would also make the cut, but interest in the show has cooled considerably and it will close long before Tony nominations are announced; the committee may decide the show has already received the recognition it deserves. Constellations will probably prove too heady and weird for its own good, although it still has a shot if one or more spring shows disappoint.

Best Musical Revival

NY City Ballet principal dancer Megan Fairchild (left) makes an impressive Broadway debut next to longtime scene stealer Jackie Hoffman (right) in the stellar revival of On the Town.

The obvious frontrunner here is John Rando's knockout revival of the Bernstein-Comden-Green tuner On the Town. I expect this show to do quite well come Tony time, and although it faces steep competition from Lincoln Center's sure-to-be lavish The King and I, this little show that could might just win it all on Tony Sunday. Meanwhile, Side Show's fortunes are harder to predict. Those familiar with the property, either from its original Broadway run or that production's cast recording, were over the moon about this reconceived revival, but the uninitiated seemed to not quite understand what all the fuss was about. Compounding Side Show's woes is the fact it has already shuttered, placing it out of sight and out of mind for many voters. For this dark musical to have any shot at a nomination, at least one of the spring revivals - On the Twentieth Century, Gigi, or the aforementioned King and I - will have to bomb, as there aren't enough shows to force an expansion of the category (and we may only get three nominees, just like last year).

Best Play Revival

Bradley Cooper (left) has been packing them in for his critically acclaimed run in The Elephant Man.

There are just enough play revivals scheduled for this season that the Tony committee could select five nominees if they were so inclined. Even if they don't, the majority of Best Revival of a Play nominees will come from the fall season, as there are only two more scheduled for the spring. The one sure thing is critical and box office smash The Elephant Man, which proves that Bradley Cooper can sell tickets and win accolades whether he's onscreen or onstage. Not quite as certain but still very likely is a nod for the excellently rendered You Can't Take It With You, which managed to overcome industry skepticism and make critics view this well-worn comedy afresh.

Given the lack of any other breakout hits, the rest of the nominations could go any number of ways. Both Love Letters and This is Our Youth received surprisingly strong reviews but only middling box office, and will have been closed for months by the time Tony voters cast their ballots. I wouldn't rule either show completely out, although I would favor Youth over Letters, as the latter was essentially a glorified reading and some voters will surely scoff at that. There's an outside chance Broadway's love of Glenn Close and John Lithgow leads to A Delicate Balance getting nominated, or that the huge box office of It's Only a Play gets it recognized, but I wouldn't count on either. I actually think It's Only a Play has hurt its chances by extending without its strongest asset (Nathan Lane), as two months of pulling in half the grosses it did this fall is going to take a lot of the sheen off this middling McNally revival.


Of course, all of this is subject to change based on the strength of the spring slate of productions, especially the Best Musical and Play categories. Check back soon to see which actors and actresses I think are sitting pretty when it comes to awards prospects, and feel free to let me know who you're rooting for in the comments.

For more 2015 Tony coverage, check out my thoughts on the latest Tony rule changes here.

2014 Fall Preview: The Play Revivals

Tony winners Matthew Broderick and Nathan Lane are 2 of the many, many celebrities coming to Broadway this fall in limited run revivals.

The 2014-2015 Broadway stealthily began the week after the Tony Awards with the premiere of the ill-fated musical Holler If You Hear Me, something that already seems like a non-event in the grand scheme of things.  But we are getting ready to start the season proper, with several new productions beginning previews this month and many more scheduled from now until the lucrative holiday season.  And so I will be writing a three-part series previewing the upcoming season, examining all of the announced productions and giving a brief assessment of the probable level of success, both artistic and commercial.

We start with the plays, and like last year this coming season is jam packed with celebrity-led revivals.  Not everyone appreciates these shameless cash grabs (which can sometimes be of dubious artistic merit), although enough of them turn out well that I'm not about to dismiss the trend out of hand.  The productions also have a pretty good track record of making money, which the producers will hopefully pour back into riskier projects and not solely into more celebrity-led revivals.  So what revivals can star-struck theatregoers who need a break from singing and dancing look forward to this coming fall?  Find out below.

This Is Our Youth
Previews begin 8/17; Opening Night 9/11

This is one of those awkward situations where producers seem to think they've booked name talent but actually haven't.  Michael Cera is the biggest "name" here, and even in his home medium of film he has never been a consistent draw (the one-note screen persona he's cultivated probably doesn't help matters).  Cera and costars Kieran Culkin (younger brother of Home Alone's Mucauley Culkin) and Tavi Gevinson don't have nearly the drawing power as a Denzel Washington, Neil Patrick Harris or even a James Franco, which means that director Anna D. Shapiro better work the same kind of magic she did with August: Osage County if the show's to be successful.  The play, which explores themes of adolescence and maturity, sounds promising, but I'm taking a wait-and-see approach to this work.  If the buzz is good, I'm more likely to give it a chance.

You Can't Take It With You
Previews begin 8/26; Opening Night 9/28

This revival of the Pulitzer Prize-winning comedy has a much starrier cast than This Is Our Youth, headlined by the always engaging James Earl Jones.  Jones plays the head of the eccentric and slightly unhinged Sycamore clan as they entertain the more conventional family of their daughter's boyfriend.  The play, with a premise ripe for scene-stealing supporting turns by a cast of theatrical veterans, certainly has my interest, although it lacks the "it factor" which makes me feel compelled to buy a ticket.  Unless something goes horribly wrong, I expect this play to do good business and win decent reviews, although it remains to be seen if it will have the kind of legs to merit an extension and/or any serious Tony talk.

It's Only a Play
Previews begin 8/28; Opening Night 10/9

Terrance McNally's last Broadway outing Mothers and Sons left me cold, but the upcoming revival of his 1982 comedy It's Only a Play is one of my most anticipated productions of the fall season.  The cast assembled by the producers and director Jack O'Brien is stacked with name talent, most of whom have at least one Tony nomination (if not a win) to their name.  The idea of seeing such noted clowns as Nathan Lane, Megan Mullaly, and Matthew Broderick ham it up in the farcical-sounding work (about a Broadway producer anxiously awaiting the reviews for his latest play) is exactly the kind of thing I and a lot of people would be willing to pay big bucks for.  Unless it gets absolutely terrible reviews, I suspect this will be one of the theatrical events of the fall.

Love Letters
Previews begin 9/13; Opening Night 9/18

An last minute addition to the fall season, this revival of the A.R. Gurney drama about the lifelong friendship between an artist and a politician sounds like a complete snoozefest.  The entire play is told via a series of letters the pair exchange, meaning it is essentially a series of monologues read aloud to the audience.  I have never enjoyed Gurney's work; he focuses so specifically on the concerns of upper class whites it can be hard to relate to his plays if you don't come from a similar background.  The gimmick of this revival is that it will feature a rotating cast of name actors, starting with Brain Dennehy and Mia Farrow and eventually including the likes to Carol Burnett, Alan Alda, and Diana Rigg.  I personally think this revival is ill-advised (the rotating guest stars didn't do much to help After Midnight's sales, and these stars have even shorter runs that will be almost impossible to properly advertise) and likely doomed to failure.  I will certainly be skipping it.

The Real Thing
Previews begin 10/2; Opening Night 10/30

Roundabout's productions have been incredibly hit or miss over the past several seasons, so without more information it is impossible to know where this revival of Tom Stoppard's heady drama will land on the quality spectrum.  It does have the appealing prospect of Ewan McGreggor in his Broadway debut, with a supporting cast that includes Maggie Gyllenhall and Cynthia Nixon to give it both theatrical credibility and even more Hollywood sheen.  I'm expecting a competently staged and acted evening at the theatre, although I will admit that it isn't very high up on my list of things to see.

A Delicate Balance
Previews begin 10/20; Opening Night 11/20

Along with It's Only a Play, A Delicate Balance looks poised to become one of the more buzzed about Broadway productions of the fall.  Featuring Glenn Close's first Broadway appearance in 20 years, Tony-winner and multiple Oscar-nominee Close is joined by Tony- and Emmy-winner John Lithgow in this Edward Albee drama.  Directed by Pam MacKinnon, who worked wonders with the 2012 revival of Albee's Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?, this production contains great actors tackling a great script under the helm of a great director.  Assuming the stars are available and willing, I can easily see this extending for a month or two past its planned February closing date (which will give me more time to actually go see it).

The Elephant Man
Previews begin 11/7; Opening Night 12/7

This production is a wildcard for me.  On one hand, Bradley Cooper has racked up multiple Oscar nominations over the past couple of years, proving he is a much more versatile actor than his lowbrow performance in The Hangover would lead you to believe.  The Elephant Man is a respected property in the theatrical world that is a major showcase for its star, who plays the deformed John Merrick without the benefit of prosthetics or makeup.  But I wonder if director Scott Ellis, who is also directing You Can't Take It With You and On the Twentieth Century next season, is perhaps stretching himself too thin to really give this project the level of focus it deserves.  Cooper's name is probably enough to ensure good box office, but I am very curious to see what the verdict is on the artistic merits of this production.


And those are all the play revivals you can look forward to between now and Christmas.  Check back soon to see my take on this fall's upcoming new plays.