2018 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

We're only a few short days away from the 2018 Tony Awards, when we'll learn which productions and artists from this past season have won Broadway's highest honor. We've spent plenty of time discussing the later, predicting all the acting races as well as many of the creative team awards, and now it's time to focus on the former. Which four productions will be deemed the best Broadway had to offer this past season? We're starting with the revivals, so read on to find out my thoughts!

Best Revival of a Play

James McArdle and Andrew Garfield in the Broadway revival of Angels in America.

Nominees: Angels in America; The Iceman Cometh; Lobby Hero; Three Tall Women; Travesties

While this category sports uniformly well received productions, I along with everyone else expect this award to go to Angels in America. Tony Kushner's Pulitzer Prize-winning epic is event theatre on a scale rarely seen, filled with the kind of weighty subject matter and big emotional beats that are like catnip to awards voters. In addition to being the most nominated play in Tony history, Angels has won practically every other Best Revival award in existence, so I see no reason why that would change come Sunday night.

Travesties is respected but heady, to the point where multiple reviewers admitted to being confused despite recognizing the craft on display; Tony voters probably feel similarly and will take their votes elsewhere. Lobby Hero marked Second Stage's Broadway debut in their dedicated home and established the Off-Broadway not-for-profit as a Broadway player to watch. I'm sure multiple Tony Awards are in Second Stage's future, but they will have to wait a bit longer to collect them. The Iceman Cometh earned surprisingly strong reviews for a production most industry insiders didn't seem all that interested in, but the tone of reviews is just measured enough that a win seems unlikely. If anything can wrest the crown away from Angels it will be Joe Mantello's new mounting of Three Tall Women, but I suspect most voters will view Glenda Jackson's presumed Best Actress win as a way to honor the entire production. 

(Fun fact: before becoming one of New York's go-to directors, Mantello was an actor who made his Broadway debut as Louis in the original mounting of Angels in America to Tony-nominated effect.)

Will & Should Win: Angels in America

Best Revival of a Musical

Lauren Ambrose in My Fair Lady at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: Carousel; My Fair Lady; Once On This Island

While this category sports fewer nominees than Best Revival of a Play, it *feels* more competitive as it lacks an obvious front runner. Carousel seems likely to be an also-ran, since the plethora of well executed individual elements haven't quite gelled as a whole for many theatregoers. Some feel the issues are inherent in the script and its questionable portrayal of domestic abuse, while others just think this particular production misses the mark in how it handles said elements, but either way the cumulative effect is a revival with enough naysayers to prevent a win.

Lincoln Center's lavish production of My Fair Lady was always destined to be this season's prestige revival, and it delivers on all fronts. Unlike Carousel, the creative team behind this show has addressed its problematic aspects in a way that appeals to modern sensibilities without betraying the original intent of the show. If anything, director Bartlett Sher's take on the material feels closer in spirit to Lerner and Loewe's actual text than many more "traditional" productions. As always, Sher has assembled a top notch cast to present a subtly revolutionary take on a show we all think we know, and it seems like once again Sher's efforts will result in a Best Revival win.

And yet I can't help but root for Michael Arden's breathtaking in-the-round staging of Once On This Island. While it lacks the sheer physical scale of its competitors it is no less ambitious, having beautifully transformed the Circle in the Square Theatre into an evocative island paradise overflowing with theatrical ingenuity and genuine heart. While I've heard whispers that some found My Fair Lady a tad too stately and reverential, I have yet to encounter anything but effusive praise for Once On This Island. It would certainly be a Tony moment to see this scrappy little show walk off with one of the night's biggest prizes, and while I don't expect it to happen, I can certainly hope for it.

Will Win: My Fair Lady
Should Win: Once On This Island (but My Fair Lady is also fantastic)


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2018 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

The 2018 Tony Awards are just over a week away, and we are continuing full speed ahead with our annual Tony predictions. Today we finish up the acting races with the Leading Actresses, breaking down who will win and pointing out who deserves to win while we're at it. Read on below!

Best Actress in a Play

Glenda Jackson as A in Three Tall Women.

Nominees: Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women; Condola Rashad, Saint Joan; Lauren Ridloff, Children of a Lesser God; Amy Schumer, Meteor Shower

This is the easiest Tony category to predict; in fact, I'll go so far as to call it a lock. Glenda Jackson has already won multiple awards for her leading turn in Three Tall Women, including the hyper competitive Distinguished Performance Award from the Drama League, which is only awarded to one performer per year and can only be won once in a performer's lifetime.

As if that wasn't enough of an advantage, Jackson also faces less competition than normal with only three other nominees, none of whom have inspired much fervor among Tony voters. Amy Schumer is a somewhat surprising nominee from the long-shuttered Meteor Shower, and I don't know anyone who expects her to win. Meanwhile, Condola Rashad looks set to continue her streak as a perpetual Tony bridesmaid, with Saint Joan barely limping through its limited run with half-empty houses and zero buzz, either positive or negative. And while I'm sure Tony voters will love the story of Children of a Lesser God's Lauren Ridloff - a first time actress who was brought in as a consultant on Deaf culture and won the role of Sarah after being asked to play it during a reading - the show's early closing certainly hasn't helped her chances. If anyone can unseat Jackson it's probably Ridloff, but that seems about as likely as Hamilton closing anything this decade.

Will Win: Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women
Should Win: Abstain

Best Actress in a Musical

Katrina Lenk as Dina in The Band's Visit.

Nominees: Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady; Hailey Kilgore, Once On This Island; LaChanze, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical; Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit; Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls; Jessie Mueller, Carousel

As with Best Featured Actress in a Musical, there are some bizarre choices and omissions here. How Tony voters overlooked Patti Murin's luminous, star-making turn as Princess Anna in Frozen is beyond me, as I would rank her work above several of the nominated actresses without hesitation. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Jessie Mueller's inclusion for Carousel feels like a force of habit nomination more than something the Tony-winning actress earned. The Rodgers and Hamemrstein revival is far from Mueller's best work, not helped by the fact she is saddled with a problematic "leading" role which has failed to result in even a Tony nomination for those who've played it before her. It's also a bit of a stretch to argue that Taylor Louderman's take on Regina George in Mean Girls belongs in the leading category, although its harder to begrudge the first time Tony nominee her time in the spotlight.

That leaves us with four viable candidates to actually win, and I think we can safely rule out LaChanze's diva-riffic performance in Summer. I'm sure the previous Tony-winner is doing great work as late disco star Donna Summer, but the musical is so reviled by critics a win for her seems borderline impossible. I think both Hailey Kilgore and Once On This Island in general have ardent supporters among the community, but for whatever reason that show hasn't quite ignited Tony voters the way I thought it would (and should). My best guess as to why is the show opened just *slightly* too early in the season, and voters have been distracted by the newer productions that have premiered since then.

The Band's Visit actually opened prior to Island, but the difference here is that many people consider it the frontrunner for Best Musical, and so it is continually on people's minds. Katrina Lenk is quite bewitching as Dina, the sole female presence of any consequence in the show and the closest thing the ensemble piece has to a lead. If more of Visit lived up to her performance of the haunting ballad "Omar Sharif" I would probably like it a lot more than I currently do, but I still find her hobbled by the piece's frustratingly restrained, understated tone that is subtle to the point of being nonexistent.

Meanwhile Lauren Ambrose is giving the most fully realized musical characterization of the season in My Fair Lady at the Vivan Beaumont Theatre. Her Eliza is also heavily reliant on subtext and acting between the lines, but Ambrose manages an emotional accessibility Lenk lacks without sacrificing the latter's nuance. The only real criticism I have of Ambrose's performance is that while her sweet soprano can sound a bit small in that cavernous theatre, and you have definitely heard the role of Eliza sung better. What you likely *haven't* seen is a better acted version, and her singing is strong enough that you can forgive those times her voice is merely good instead of great.

As far as I'm concerned, Ambrose has more than earned this award. She may well win it, as demonstrated by her victory at the Outer Critics' Circle Awards over largely the same field of competitors. But the objective part of me suspects that Tony voters will go with Lenk due to their love for Band's Visit (and residual love for last season's Indecent, also starring Lenk).

Will Win: Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit
Should Win: Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady
Should Have Been Nominated: Patti Murin, Frozen



Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Book and Score
Direction and Choreography
Featured Actor
Featured Actress
Actor