Best Musical
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| Erika Henningsen as Cady, Ashley Park as Gretchen, Taylor Louderman as Regina, and Kate Rockwell as Karen in Mean Girls. |
Nominees: The Band's Visit; Frozen; Mean Girls; SpongeBob SquarePants
Wildcard: Prince of Broadway
This category seems pretty set in stone. The only other eligible productions, Escape to Margaritaville and Summer, are both critically reviled jukebox musicals that I can't imagine connecting with Tony voters. Band's Visit has felt like a Tony contender since the time it opened, and the eagerly anticipated Mean Girls is probably its greatest competition. Frozen is solid enough that I expect it to be nominated, but Disney's latest effort has left the critics somewhat cold. And based on the recently announced Drama Desk and Outer Critics' nominations, SpongeBob SquarePants will fulfill my prediction to be this year's "surprise" Best Musical nominee. If one of those shows somehow doesn't make the grade I suppose the Hal Prince revue Prince of Broadway could sneak in there, but that seems about as likely as Hamilton closing anytime soon.
Best Play
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| The cast of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child on Broadway. |
Nominees: Farinelli and the King; Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Junk; Meteor Shower
Wildcard: The Children
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child's nomination and eventual win both feel like foregone conclusions at this point. It is the most awarded play in the history of London's Olivier Awards, where the new play is generally much more competitive than it is on Broadway (in the US, Off-Broadway and regional theatres are the hot spots for play development). In some kind of freaky alternate reality where Harry Potter wasn't a critically adored, money printing hit, Farinelli and the King is probably the next most likely candidate. I think Junk and Meteor Shower will get token nominations to round out the category, but I can also imagine either one being left out in favor of another British import, MTC's fall production of The Children.
Best Musical Revival
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| Lauren Ambrose (center) and the cast of Lincoln Center Theatre's My Fair Lady. |
Nominees: Carousel; My Fair Lady; Once on this Island
There are exactly three eligible nominees in this category (Carousel, My Fair Lady, and Once on this Island), so everyone should get nominated by default. On a positive note, all three shows are strong enough to merit nominations even in a more competitive season. I suppose if the Tony voters were feeling extra ornery they could whittle this category down to two, but I have trouble believing they hate Carousel enough to do so.
Best Play Revival
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| Beth Malone and Andrew Garfield in Angels in America on Broadway. |
Nominees: Angels in America; Lobby Hero; Three Tall Women; Travesties
Wildcard: The Iceman Cometh
This is the one category where it feels like there's a legitimate danger of a deserving show being left out of the mix. Angels in America is the clear front runner here; the play is pure Tony bait, and by all accounts the current Broadway revival is superbly done. The critics also went gaga over the Edward Albee revival Three Tall Women, and I would be shocked if the uniformly praised show was left out of the running. I also expect Second Stage to be rewarded with a Tony nod for Lobby Hero, the inaugural production of their newly renovated Broadway home, the Helen Hayes. For the final slot, I'm going with Roundabout's praised production of Tom Stoppard's Travesties, although if the heady language play proves too high brow for Tony voters the Denzel Washington fronted The Iceman Cometh could sneak in there.
Agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments! Lively discussion is the best way to keep this blog fresh and exciting for everyone.
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