Saturday, May 19, 2018

2018 Tony Predictions: Best Director and Choreography

While many Tony categories this year are up for grabs, that seems to stem more from all the nominees being equally good but not great rather than a surfeit of truly standout work. That is not meant to detract from this year's nominees so much as an acknowledgement that there's just less eligible work this season, and it isn't the creative home runs we've been spoiled by the past few years. That said, one area where this year's Tonys are *super* competitive is Best Director, so read on to find out my predictions of who will walk away a winner on June 10th (and if they actually deserve it).

Best Direction of a Play


Andrew Garfield as Prior Walter and the cast of Angels in America.

Nominees: Marianne Elliott, Angels in America; Joe Mantello, Three Tall Women; Patrick Marber, Travesties; John Tiffany, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; George C. Wolfe, The Iceman Cometh

The level of talent in this category is off the charts. With the exception of Travesties' Patrick Marber, all are previous Tony winners, both hugely influential and highly respected in the Broadway community. And the shows they are nominated for not only represent some of the best reviewed productions of the season, but also display an sense of scale and depth rarely attempted in a Broadway play these days.

While the Tonys typically love an underdog story, I don't see Marber breaking through for Roundabout's revival of Tom Stoppard's heady Travesties. The play is just too obtuse for the average Tony voter to really rally behind, even though they all surely recognize and respect the skill that went into mounting it. Meanwhile George C. Wolfe's The Iceman Cometh's finds itself the victim of poor timing, coming only a few years after a much heralded mounting at Brooklyn Academy of Music starring Nathan Lane and Brian Dennehy that was once rumored for a Broadway transfer. Many critics felt the show didn't quite merit revisiting so soon, and Wolfe will unfortunately be penalized for it. And while I have read nary a negative word about Joe Mantello's mounting of Three Tall Women, I have trouble imagining him triumphing over the other two gargantuan undertakings under consideration here.

Both Angels in America and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child are epic plays presented in two parts. Both have a lot of technical elements for their directors to wrangle, with Cursed Child reportedly boasting a physical production and special effects on the level of any big budget musical. There is a very good chance John Tiffany will win for bringing The Boy Who Lived to Broadway in such successful, stunning fashion, a clear triumph of theatrical craft and artistry. But Angels in America is inarguably one of the densest, most thought provoking, and important plays of the past 50 years, and by all accounts Marianne Elliott has nailed it. In what some might consider an upset, I foresee her name being the one called on June 10th, to thunderous applause.

Will and Should Win: Marianne Elliott, Angels in America

Best Direction of a Musical


Harry Hadden-Paton as Henry Higgins and Lauren Ambrose as Eliza Doolittle in My Fair Lady at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: Michael Arden, Once on this Island; David Cromer, The Band's Visit; Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants; Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls; Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady

For me, this is hands down the most competitive category of the night. Each director's vision permeates every corner of their respective productions, and yet ultimately it is the material which shines through instead of some heavy-handed directorial "concept." That said, I think we can safely rule out a win for Casey Nicholaw, as the very entertaining Mean Girls is hardly his best work. And while David Cromer is a dark horse for his work on the critically lauded The Band's Visit, I don't think his direction of that show is as integral to its success as the remaining three contenders.

It cannot be understated how much Michael Arden's vision for Once on this Island helped shape that production into the jewel it is today. His environmental staging makes the most out of the deceptively tricky Circle in the Square Theatre, and for all his lush images and inventive staging he keeps the focus squarely on the narrative's big, beating heart. After the Deaf West Spring Awakening revival and now this, Arden has firmly established himself as an artist to watch, but I sadly don't think it's his time to win Tony glory just yet. 

When it comes to choosing between Tina Landau and Bartlett Sher it's almost too close to call. The Outer Critics' Circle refused to pick, instead awarding both artists Best Direction of a Musical in a rare tie. Sher has subtly but irrevocably changed the way My Fair Lady plays for a modern audience more aware than ever of how gender politics play out in popular entertainment. He has radically reinterpreted a beloved classic in a way that feels startlingly fresh and contemporary without changing a word of the 62 year old classic.

Meanwhile Landau, who has been attached to SpongeBob SquarePants almost since its inception, has miraculous turned what seemed like a cynical cash grab by a big corporation into one of the most entertaining celebrations of theatrical craft around. She has guided her design team to a visual look that evokes the off-kilter feel of the cartoon without literally copying it, and has assembled a rock solid cast that have been encouraged to take their performances far beyond a funny voice and a couple of quirks. She as much as anyone helped shape the disparate elements into a unified whole that feels entirely at home on stage. 

Sher seems like a safer bet to win, and should he walk away with the trophy on Tony Sunday you won't hear any complaints from me. But Landau is this season's MVP when in comes to direction, and I'm hoping she will walk away with the acknowledgement she deserves.

Will Win: Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady
Should Win: Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants

Best Choreography


The beautiful dancers of the cast of Carousel.

Nominees: Christopher Gattelli, My Fair Lady; Christopher Gattelli, SpongeBob SquarePants; Steven Hoggett, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls; Justin Peck, Carousel

This article is running a bit long, but that's okay because there's not much to discuss here. Justin Peck easily wins Best Choreography for his beautiful and abundant work on Carousel, the biggest dance show of the season. The revival's producers were smart to hire New York City Ballet's youngest ever choreographer in residence to stage Carousel's many dances - including the signature Rodgers and Hammerstein dream ballet - and I can't imagine anyone else winning this award.

Will & Should Win: Justin Peck, Carousel


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Best Book and Score

7 comments:

  1. I agree with your choreography prediction and director of a play but I am going to go out on a limb and predict Michael Arden for Once on this Island. I think he is the “up and coming” Director that they are going to want to honor. Also, I think they are going to want to honor Once on this Island somewhere and this may be where they do similar to Come From Away winning Best Director last year.

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    1. You certainly won't find me complaining about a Michael Arden win for "Once on this Island." He has done amazing things with that show and his concept/staging really elevates the production as a whole.

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    2. I wonder what his next project will be...

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  2. I agree. Something tells me voters are going to insert politics when they vote for Best Director Of A Musical, and I have a hunch they'll vote for Michael Arden both as a way to honor Once On This Island as a production, and also as a way to give Donald Trump the middle finger for his horrific, racist "s***hole countries" remark towards Haiti and many other developing countries. I know many people frown upon politics playing into who wins an award, but in cases like this, I'm all for it, because from where I stand, Donald Trump is easily one of the worst Presidents in American history, regardless of his political party.

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  3. While neither the Outer Critics Circle nor Drama Desk Awards overlap with the Tonys, it is worth noting that Michael Arden failed to win the former and wasn't even nominated by the latter. The last time that the Tony for Best Direction of a Musical went to someone who failed to win any of the precursors was 1996 when George C. Wolfe won for Bring in 'da Noise, Bring in 'da Funk. That year, Jerry Zaks had won the Outer Critics Circle for A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum while Christopher Renshaw won the Drama Desk for The King & I. Though Joe Mantello did manage to win both of those precursors for Wicked in 2004, he still managed to win that year for Assassins.

    Then again, last year marked the first time in over a decade that both directing categories were won by productions that didn't go on to win their top categories.

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    1. The Directing categories last year were certainly a bit of a surprise and a welcomed attempt to "spread the love." And while something similar could happen this year, I just really have trouble imagining Arden winning the Tony partly for the reasons you mentioned. (The idea of him winning as a rebuttal to Trump seems too convoluted to be likely.)

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