2018 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

Having tackled some of the creative behind the scenes categories, it is now time to turn the focus of our annual Tony Predictions to the acting categories. So let's get started with the Featured Actor categories, breaking down both who will win and who actually deserves to win. Read on for more!

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathan Lane as Roy Cohn in Angels in America.

Nominees: Anthony Boyle, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Michael Cera, Lobby Hero; Brian Tyree Henry, Lobby Hero; Nathan Lane, Angels in America; David Morse, The Iceman Cometh

Having not seen any of the nominated performances (I do have tickets to see both Angels in American and Cursed Child later this summer), I'm flying blind when it comes to predicting this category. David Morse feels like a long shot as the Broadway community doesn't seem especially passionate about The Iceman Cometh, but with that said his role of Larry Slade gives him plenty of material to work with in what is essentially a co-lead. More stagetime means more chances to have Tony-worthy moments, so the possibility of a surprise win for Morse is certainly there. Lobby Hero costars Michael Cera and Brian Tyree Henry may well cancel each other out, and the fact that Lobby Hero is now closed while the other productions are still running is another hurdle either actor will have to overcome. (Historically, being in a closed show severely handicaps a performer's chances of winning.)

Like many of this season's play categories, the race will likely to boil down to Harry Potter vs. Angels in America. Anthony Boyle won the Olivier for his role in Cursed Child's London premiere, while Nathan Lane was surprisingly not even nominated for playing force of nature Ray Cohn in Angels at London's National Theatre. That would appear to give Boyle the edge, but the American response to Angels has also outpaced the British reception, partially evidenced by Angels beating Cursed Child in total nominations. Lane's star wattage is also stronger on this side of the Atlantic, with the beloved character having been a fixture of the New York theatrical community for decades. Despite multiple nominations Lane hasn't won a Tony since The Producers all the way back in 2001, so it feels like he's overdue for another, especially since he has never been recognized for one of his many lauded dramatic roles. I think Lane will win the day, but don't count Boyle out just yet.

Will Win: Nathan Lane, Angels in America

Should Win: Abstain

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Gavin Lee as Squidward J. Tentacles in SpongeBob SquarePants.

Nominees: Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady; Alexander Gemignani, Carousel; Grey Henson, Mean Girls; Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants; Ari'el Stachel, The Band's Visit

This is a competitive category that could go any number of ways, and might be an early indication of whether Tony voters have played it safe or gotten adventurous with their winners. Norbert Leo Butz is the elder statesman of the group, having won twice for his leading performances in Dirty Rotten Scoundrels  and Catch Me If You Can. He gives a fantastically layered, utterly transfixing performance in My Fair Lady, but is it enough to justify awarding him another trophy over the rest of the category, most of whom are first time nominees? If Butz's name is called on Tony Sunday, expect an evening of choices that rewards the established Broadway elite rather than the new kids on the block.

Ari'el Stachel sits in an interesting space between Butz and the other nominees. He's nominated for his Broadway debut, so a win for him would appear to signal the Tony voters are interested in rewarding new blood. But The Band's Visit is the widely presumed frontrunner for Best Musical, so picking the one representative from that show would be a fairly safe choice. Personally, while I don't think Stachel is bad by any stretch of the imagination, I'm also hard pressed to tell you exactly what his character does in the show. Being unmemorable in a field of flashy performances is a handicap I'm not sure Stachel can overcome (and should Band's Visit be the runaway favorite for the big awards, Tony voters might want to spread the love).

The other nominees are more exciting choices, unexpected but not undeserving. While Alexander Gemignani is the longest shot of the group, he does extraordinary things with Enoch Snow in Carousel, a role which would easily fade into the background in the hands of a lesser performer. But I can't see him triumphing over SpongeBob's Gavin Lee and Mean Girls' Grey Henson, both supremely charismatic performers gifted with bona fide showstoppers. Lee's comic stylings have been polished to a high shine, and watching him tap dance his way through "I'm Not a Loser" is the most joyous part of a show overflowing with unbridled fun. Henson is rougher around the edges, but there's no denying the infectious glee he brings to Mean Girls' "too gay to function" Damian, a clear crowd favorite (so much so the writers added a second big number for Hensen between the DC tryout and Broadway).

Honestly, Butz probably *deserves* this award the most. The cynic in me thinks Tony voters will ultimately choose Stachel for having the most dramatic performance, but recent winners in this category show a refreshing willingness to acknowledge how difficult a comedic performance can be. For that reason, I'm going out on a limb and predicting Gavin Lee will tap his way to victory, proving once and for all that he is NOT a loser.

Will Win: Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants

Should Win: Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady

Should Have Been Nominated: Alex Newell for his gender bending, rough raising Asaka in Once on this Island 

Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

2017 Tony Award Predictions: Best Featured Actor

June is bustin' out all over, which means that we're getting down to the wire when it comes to this year's Tony Awards. Broadway's highest honors will be handed out on June 11th, and I'm here to predict which lucky performers and productions will receive them. As always, these predictions combine personal opinion, critical plaudits, and industry buzz to determine the most *likely* winner, not necessarily the most *deserving* one. If I personally would vote for someone else, I will make sure to point that out in my analysis.

Now let's tackle the first two of the eight acting races!

Best Featured Actor in a Play

John Douglas Thompson in Jitney.

Nominees: Michael Aronov, Oslo; Danny DeVito, The Price; Nathan Lane, The Front Page; Richard Thomas, The Little Foxes; John Douglas Thompson, Jitney

Again, I have unfortunately not seen any of the nominated performances in this category. However, the Featured Acting in a Play categories tend to be the biggest source of out of left field winners, so perhaps that isn't such a handicap. These are the races where star power and industry reputation have the least bearing on the outcome, as this is where Tony voters like to reward the hardworking journeyman actors who may not get the chance to headline a show but are supremely talented. Some years, it seems like being too big of a name can actively hurt a performer's chances in this category.

Which makes me think a 3rd trophy for Nathan Lane is unlikely, despite his performance being the most lauded and best remembered aspect of the starry Front Page revival. However, I don't think name recognition will hurt Danny DeVito's chances, as despite a decades-long career in TV and film The Price marked the veteran character actor's Broadway debut. DeVito is certainly a contender, as is Richard Thomas, given that The Little Foxes is one of the buzziest plays of the season. And with a history of unexpected winners in this category, I wouldn't be at all surprised if either Oslo's Michael Aronov or Jitney's John Douglas Thompson manages a win despite being on very few people's radar. In fact, in a somewhat daring move, I'm actually going to predict a win for Thompson, as I think critical appreciation for Jitney will prove surprisingly strong at the Tonys.

Will win: John Douglas Thompson, Jitney
Should win: Abstain

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Gavin Creel (right) and Beanie Feldstein, Taylor Trensch, and Kate Baldwin in Hello, Dolly!

Nominees: Gavin Creel, Hello, Dolly!; Mike Faist, Dear Evan Hansen; Andrew Rannells, Falsettos; Lucas Steele, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812; Brandon Uranowitz, Falsettos

I have to say, I truly loved Mike Faist's performance in Dear Evan Hansen, especially upon second viewing. The way he subtly shifts Connor Murphy's persona in front of your eyes to match the evolving backstory Evan creates during the song "Sincerely Me" is truly something to behold, a complex bit of stage magic that appears effortless. That said, I think Faist has about zero chance of actually winning this award given his more high profile competition.

While I was absolutely blown away by Andrew Rannells in The Book of Mormon (I think he deserved the Best Actor Tony that year), I don't think his role in Falsettos showcased him to the best of his ability. Whizzer is more of a plot device than a character, and the lack of much emotional depth to play probably torpedoes any real chance Rannells has at winning. I was far more impressed with Brandon Uranowitz's work in the same show, which felt the most authentic to the period and character while also being delightfully nuanced. Unfortunately, Falsettos is long closed and while I typically don't believe vote splitting is as big an issue as some make it out to be, having two nominees from a closed show could well cancel one another out.

The true competition is between Gavin Creel and Lucas Steele. Not necessarily for me, as Lucas Steele has long been my least favorite performer in the quite good cast of Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812. But I seem to be in the minority, as Steele already won a Lucille Lortel Award for playing the same role in the show's original Off-Broadway incarnation. That said, Gavin Creel is a beloved member of the Broadway community who at this point feels overdue for a Tony Award. (His *stellar* work in last season's She Loves Me went criminally unrecognized by the nominations committee.) And Creel is quite good in Hello, Dolly!, combining a boyish innocence with great comic timing and a glorious tenor to bring hapless shop clerk Cornelius Hackl to vivid life. I'm predicting this is Creel's year, although Steele could still score an upset.

Will and Should Win: Gavin Creel, Hello, Dolly!

Those are my predictions; feel free to share yours in the comments section! Check back soon for my Featured Actress predictions, and in the meantime you can catch up on the rest of my 2017 Tony Awards coverage below.

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

2016 Tony Award Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are less than 2 weeks away, and my annual prediction articles have now reached what I like to call the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production races always seem to be the most discussed and debated of any Tony season, possibly because these awards have the greatest affect on the business of Broadway going forward. A Best Musical or Best Play winner often ends up with a much longer life on both Broadway and beyond than it might otherwise have had, and performers who are recognized with Tony wins generally (but not always) have access to a greater range of options and opportunities.

Today we'll look at the Featured Actor races, whose eclectic mix of performances often make for some of the hardest to predict races in any given season. As always, I will do my best to determine who is most likely to win, and if that person doesn't match up with who I think is the most deserving I will be sure to point it out in my analysis. Let's get on with the show!

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Reed Birney as patriarch Eric Blake in the much praised, Pulitzer Prize finalist The Humans.

Nominees: Reed Birney, The Humans; Bill Camp, The Crucible; David Furr, Noises Off; Richard Goulding, King Charles III; Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night

I must admit I'm working primarily off of speculation here, as I haven't seen the majority of nominees in this category. I think Richard Goulding has the biggest set of obstacles to overcome, as he wasn't on many people's radar prior to the nominations being announced and his show has been closed the longest. Being in a closed show also greatly hurts the chances of Noises Off's David Furr, although I think enough Tony voters have strong impressions of that first rate revival to keep Furr in the conversation. Meanwhile, Bill Camp has the advantage of being in a currently running production, and although The Crucible doesn't have the most passionate supporters, producer Scott Rudin has major influence within the industry and has helped long shot nominees score wins in the past.

But Rudin is also behind The Humans, a play industry insiders are much more excited about. It is also a rare Rudin production to not be centered around a Hollywood star or celebrity author, which makes me believe it's a passion project and something he will campaign for heavily. The Humans also marks the latest in a string of critically acclaimed performances for previous nominee Reed Birney, a beloved character actor whose profile continues to rise, making him the most likely winner. But one cannot discount Michael Shannon's extraordinary performance in Roundabout's acclaimed Long Day's Journey Into Night, with the film star creating probably the most nuanced and fascinating performance of that show's four leads. If Birney loses (unlikely, but possible), I expect it to be to Shannon.

Will & Should Win: Reed Birney, The Humans

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Daveed Diggs (left) and Lin-Manuel Miranda in Hamilton.

Nominees: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton; Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along; Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress; Jonathan Groff, Hamilton; Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

Simple math proves this category is likely to go to someone from Hamilton, as three out of the five nominees come from that hip-hop musical juggernaut. Even with the possibility of vote splitting, Daveed Diggs, Jonathan Groff, and Christopher Jackson have such a head start in this race I can't imagine Brandon Victor Dixon or Christopher Fitzgerald snatching the award from them. I personally don't quite understand what about Dixon's performance in Shuffle Along was deemed nomination-worthy over his costars (was it just his character's proximity to Audra McDonald, the show's clear star?), and think he is the least likely winner. And while I sincerely hope hardworking, consistently hilarious three-time nominee Fitzgerald wins a Tony Award at some point in his career, it just doesn't feel like this is his year.

Jonathan Groff was certainly memorable in his short but sweet turn as King George in Hamilton, and many other performers have won featured Tonys for similarly small amounts of stage time. But compared to Daveed Diggs and Christopher Jackson, who both have huge roles that almost rival the show's leads in terms of stage time and complexity, it's very hard to argue that Groff is the most deserving winner. And while I certainly enjoyed Jackson's take on George Washington, Daveed Diggs' dual roles as Marquis de Lafayette and Thomas Jefferson have screamed Tony Award since the show first premiered Off-Broadway last year. Diggs nails every second of his performance, a dynamic tour de force that you can't take your eyes off of. He is the clear frontrunner here, and I will be shocked if he doesn't win on June 12th.

Will & Should Win: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

In our next installment it's the featured actresses' turn to shine, but until then you can catch up on the rest of my 2016 Tony coverage by clicking the links below. And don't forget to share your thoughts in the comments!

2016 Tony Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part III (Supporting Actor/Actress)

Tomorrow morning, we find out the people and productions that will compete for the 2016 Tony Awards. And as always, I am leading up to that day with plenty of blog coverage on who I think those lucky nominees will be. Using a combination of first hand experience, analysis of industry trends, and my gut feelings, I have already made my predictions for the production and lead actor/actress categories. Today, it's time to tackle some of the most wide open races around, the Featured Actor and Actress categories.

Prediction these nominees is always tricky, as almost anyone who sets foot on a Broadway stage is eligible. Past winners have run the gamut from dynamic one scene wonders like Andrea Martin in Pippin to people who are essentially secondary leads like Aladdin's James Monroe Iglehart. In general, more stagetime makes someone more competitive - they have more time to show range and make a lasting impression - and this year there are a slew of contenders in this category who do just that (including the entire casts of the highly praised The Humans and Noises Off). 

If any acting race is going to expand to a potential six or seven nominees, my gut tells me it will be one of these, which is why in addition to my official picks I will also be choosing one or more wildcard performers in each category, representing who I think is most likely to prompt an expansion or unseat one of my official picks. Now read on to see who I think should starting thinking about what they're going to wear to Broadway's biggest night!

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Daveed Diggs (left) with Hamilton creator and star Lin-Manuel Miranda during one of the show's exciting "Cabinet Battles."

This category is looking like a potential bloodbath, with a huge number of worthy performances up for consideration. This is one area where Hamilton's massive success may actually hurt it, as the various supporting players in that musical could cancel one another out. I have the best feeling about Daveed Diggs' scene-stealing duel roles as Marquis de Lafayette and Thomas Jefferson in the hip-hop musical, but can't rule out Jonathan Groff's extremely memorable comedic performance as the foppish King George III.

In a similar situation, there are four past Tony-nominees/winners eligible for this award among Shuffle Along's star-studded cast, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them among this year's nominees. Word on the street indicates that Billy Porter has the kind of standout moment that gets Tony voters' attention late in the show's second act, so I would say he is the most likely to make the cut. But Brian Stokes Mitchell is one of the most respected musical theatre actors in the business, and his status as something of an elder statesman also makes him extremely competitive.

Personally, I would love to see The Color Purple's Isaiah Johnson nominated for his nuanced portrayal of the villainous Mister, but there's so much buzz around the show's flashier female performances that he might get lost in the shuffle. She Loves Me counts past Tony favorites Gavin Creel and Michael McGrath among its cast members, both of whom are certainly possibilities, although given his Drama Desk and Theatre World Award nods young Nicholas Barasch may just be the most likely Tony nominee among the beloved revival's male supporting players. Waitress' Christopher Fitzgerald has also done extremely well when it comes to guild nominations, well enough that I expect him to be among the five (or more) names announced Tuesday morning.

Nominees

Nicholas Barasch, She Loves Me

Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress

Jonathan Groff, Hamilton

Billy Porter, Shuffle Along

Wildcard

Isaiah Johnson, The Color Purple

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Michael Shannon in Roundabout Theatre Company's revival of Long Day's Journey Into Night.

Given the number of one and two character plays that made it to Broadway this season, this category is surprisingly light on potential nominees. One actor certain to be among this year's contenders is The Human's Reed Birney, a performer most had assumed would be moved up to the Lead Actor category given the size of his role. Having such a large amount of material to work with gives him an advantage, as does his status as a highly respected character actor who continually does acclaimed work. I will also be surprised if Michael Shannon doesn't receive a nod for his heroic work in Long Day's Journey Into Night, with the mercurial actor showing an incredible amount of range over the course of that drama's four hour runtime.

Literally every male cast member of Roundabout's Noises Off is eligible in this category, and a case could be made for any of them. Jeremy Shamos and Rob McClure, both past Tony-nominees, were each fantastic in their roles, as was David Furr with his hilarious take on the play's bumlbing leading man. I'm almost tempted to say all three make the cut and call it a day, but given The Crucible's Bill Camp and Jim Norton scoring Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nominations respectively, that seems unwise. One of the Crucible men will probably make the cut, although which one is a complete toss up.

Nominees

Reed Birney, The Humans

David Furr, Noises Off

Jim Norton, The Crucible

Jeremy Shamos, Noises Off

Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night

Wildcard

Rob McClure, Noises Off

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Renee Elise Goldsberry as Angelica Schuyler, the "oldest and wittiest" of the Schuyler sisters in Hamilton.

Unlike their male counterparts, the noteworthy supporting actress performances in this year's musicals are more evenly distributed over multiple productions, placing fewer cast members in direct competition with one another. At this point, I would consider She Loves Me's Jane Krakowski and The Color Purple's Danielle Brooks sure things, as they have been on essentially every Featured Actress in a Musical list up until this point. I also consider Hamilton's Renee Elise Goldsberry a virtual lock for her absolutely transfixing performance as Angelica Schuyler; her performance of the song "Satisfied" alone is the stuff Tony-winning performances are made of, and the fact she has several other standout moments throughout the show just increases the strength of her case.

Personally, I would really really love to see Lesli Margherita nominated for her star-making performance in Dames at Sea, but I'm not sure people still remember that show even happened. Meanwhile, Waitress is one of the few shows to have multiple candidates in this category, and although neither Keala Settle or Kimiko Glenn have appeared on any end of season lists just yet I do suspect Tony voters will be smitten with the show and its performers.

This year may also see the first career Tony nomination for longtime New York City musical stalwart Andrea Burns, one of the few people in On Your Feet called upon to actually act as opposed to just being a charming personality. Sierra Boggess has always been more popular with audiences than with awards granting bodies, but the competition in this category is just thin enough that she might sneak in there for her work in School of Rock. And as the recipient of an Outer Critics Circle nod in this category (no small feat considering both Broadway and Off-Broadway performances are eligible), American Psycho's Helene York cannot be left out of the conversation.

Nominees

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton

Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me

Lesli Margherita, Dames at Sea

Keala Settle, Waitress

Wildcards

Sierra Boggess, School of Rock
Helene York, American Psycho

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Megan Hilty as Brooke, the bad actress trying her best to be good in Noises Off.

In my opinion, the woman to beat in this category right now is Megan Hilty. Her side-splittingly funny work in Noises Off was the greatest thing about that top-notch revival, and her role in the show practically screamed Tony Award (Katie Finneran won the Tony for playing the same role in the show's last Broadway mounting). That is not to say Hilty is without competition, as Eclipsed presents three worthy challengers in the form of Saycon Sengbloh, Pascale Armand, and Zainab Jah. I personally found Sengbloh to be the most compelling, but Armand's deft transitions between high comedy and devastating emotional honesty could give her the edge in many people's eyes. Of course, this is all a conversation for another day, as I fully expect all three women to be nominated against Hilty.

The only real question here is which actress will get the fifth nomination slot. It could go to one of Hilty's costars, as both Andrea Martin and Kate Jennings Grant were pitch perfect in Roundabout's farce. I'd actually give the edge to Grant, whose slooooow crawl across the stage to remove an errant prop is one of the greatest bits of physical comedy I have ever seen, but I suspect if forced to choose the nominations committee will stick with Tony favorite Martin instead. One also can't rule out Judith Light for her work in Therese Raquin, especially since she is one of the very few performers to pull off back to back Tony wins (and in this same category, no less). If the Noises Off ladies cancel one another out, Light will definitely be the beneficiary.

Nominees

Pascale Armand, Eclipsed

Megan Hilty, Noises Off

Zainab Jah, Eclipsed

Andrea Martin, Noises Off

Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed

Wildcard

Judith Light, Therese Raquin

And that completes my predictions for this year's Tony nominees! We'll see how well I did come Tuesday morning, and in the meantime you can add your thoughts in the comments. Also, don't forget to check out the rest of my 2016 Tony coverage:

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part II (Actor/Actress)

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part IV (Featured Actor/Actress)

Every year I make a ton of Tony nominee predictions, and every year I struggle over whether to include the Featured Actor and Actress categories. These are often the hardest categories to get a read on before the nominations come out, since most performances in a given season fall under the Featured umbrella. Making things even more complex this year is the fact that these categories can now include anywhere from five to seven nominees, and I expect we'll see several of these races expand past the traditional five performer cap.

I'm basing a large portion of these predictions on speculation and gut feeling, as I unfortunately have not seen anywhere near all the eligible performances. I will also be predicting at least one Wildcard nominee in each category in an attempt to cover my bases in case the nominations committee decides to forgo the obvious candidates. Check back Tuesday afternoon to see how I did!


Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathaniel Parker (right) as King Henry VIII, the source of all the trouble in the Royal Shakespeare Company's transfer of Wolf Hall.

The large number of ensemble plays this season makes this category a virtual nightmare to predict, especially since it lacks any obvious frontrunners. The smart money says at least some of Wolf Hall's sprawling ensemble makes the cut, probably from among the plays' key players like Nathaniel Parker's Henry VIII or Paul Jessen's multiple clergymen. Fellow West End import The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time will also likely produce a competitor in this category, with Ian Barford's beautiful complex portrayal of the protagonist's father a prime candidate for recognition. And while Helen Mirren is the undisputed star of The Audience, she wouldn't be able to give the performance she does without help from all those prime ministers she interacts with; Mirren's star wattage will almost surely lift a costar or two into consideration (perhaps Dakin Matthews' Winston Churchill or Rufus Wright's Tony Blair).

Last fall's You Can't Take It With You was filled with memorable supporting turms, chief among them James Earl Jones as the Sycamore family patriarch. Jones is a very strong candidate for a fourth career nomination, and I also have a fairly good feeling that Bryce Pinkham will be making a return trip to the Tony red carpet for his role in The Heidi Chronicles (Boyd Gaines won a Tony for playing Pinkham's role in the play's original production). Hand to God was so well received that the industry's love of the boundary pushing play could translate into multiple acting nominations, although in all honesty both of the male supporting players pale in comparison to the brilliance of leading man Steven Boyer. Marc Kudish is respected enough among his peers that it could bolster his chances, even if his role as the local pastor is mostly reactionary. And while it's not inconceivable that one of the supporting players in It's Only a Play could get nominated, I do think it unlikely, as Nathan Lane's lead performance was the only one of any note in that revival.

Nominees
Ian Barford, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
James Earl Jones, You Can't Take It With You
Marc Kudish, Hand to God
Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall
Bryce Pinkham, The Heidi Chronicles

Wildcard
Paul Jessen, Wolf Hall


Best Featured Actress in a Play

Annaleigh Ashford has no vanity when it comes to the characters she plays, as proven by this charming photo from You Can't Take It With You.

This is still a wide open category, although with a few more safe bets than the Featured Actor race. I will be shocked if Annaleigh Ashford doesn't get nominated for her delightfully daffy ballerina in You Can't Take It With You, and I think there is a good chance she will be joined by her costar and onstage mother Kristine Nielsen. You Can't Take It With You also featured a textbook definition of a scene-stealer in Julie Halston, whose Tony worthiness can be summed up in two words: the stairs. (If you didn't see the show, Halston turned an almost entirely wordless drunken climb up the set's staircase into a showstopping moment). And as the most prominent female presence in critical darling Wolf Hall, Lydia Leonard is in a very good position to find her name listed among the nominees on Tony Tuesday.

I adored Francesca Faridany in Curious Incident, with her soothing motherly presence serving as the perfect counterpoint to the play's frantic portrayal of an autistic youth's journey of self-discovery. But her equally strong costar Enid Graham's role calls for more obvious "acting," and if only one of these ladies makes the cut it will likely be Graham. This category is also It's Only a Play's best chance at scoring an acting nomination, as Stockard Channing's fading diva was the revival's funniest and most effective performance after leading man Nathan Lane. Fish in the Dark, Broadway's other star-studded ensemble comedy, could also find itself represented here thanks to the performances of Rita Wilson (who is unfortunately on medical leave from the production but is scheduled to return soon after nominations are announced), Rosie Perez, and Jayne Houdyshell. This is a close race that will benefit from the committee's ability to nominate more than five performances, although I doubt the votes will be *quite* close enough to force an expansion to the maximum seven.

Nominees
Annaleigh Ashford, You Can't Take It With You
Stockard Channing, It's Only a Play
Francesca Faridany, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Enid Graham, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Julie Halston, You Can't Take It With You
Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall

Wildcard
Kristine Nielsen, You Can't Take It With You
Rita Wilson, Fish in the Dark


Best Featured Actor in a Musical

I'll be honest: while I enjoy him, I don't *quite* get the unabashed love for Christian Borle (center), a major contender for this year's awards thanks to his over the top performance in Something Rotten!

This is a very competitive category, as many of the season's big musicals have multiple performances worthy of inclusion here. If the other industry awards are anything to go by, Something Rotten! will be the show to beat this season, and will surely produce at least one Featured Actor nominee. Conventional wisdom says it will be Christian Borle's preening, pompous Billie Shakespeare, although I personally preferred the hammy antics of Brad Oscar as the soothsayer who suggests creating a musical in the first place. Not only does Oscar feel like he's in the same show as everyone else (Borle's collection of tics, while very funny, often make is seem like he's wandered in from a different production), but Oscar also leads the showstopping "A Musical" number that the company will almost surely perform on this year's Tony telecast. I suspect both men will find themselves nominated on Tuesday morning.

Last fall's On the Town also produced a pair of Tony-worthy performances from sailors Jay Armstrong Johnson and Clyde Alves. If only one of these gentlemen makes the cut, my money is on Johnson, whose incredibly endearing Chip also benefits from having one of this season's best scene partners, Alysha Umphress' sensational Hildy. From the spring shows, Andy Karl makes quite an impression as Kristin Chenoweth's buffoonish boy toy in On the Twentieth Century, and has thus far been rewarded with Featured Actor nominations in the various guild awards. I strongly suspect the Tony committee will follow suit, making Karl one of the relatively rare back-to-back acting nominees. And while Doctor Zhivago received some of the harshest reviews of the season, I wouldn't be surprised if Paul Alexander Nolan's supporting turn in that show nets him some Tony love, as he was one of the overblown epic's few highlights. And finally, as recipients of both Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nominations, It Shoulda Been You's Josh Grisetti and An American in Paris' Max von Essen are very strong contenders that I would be surprised to see excluded from this year's proceedings.

Nominees
Christian Borle, Something Rotten!
Josh Grisetti, It Shoulda Been You
Jay Armstrong Johnson, On the Town
Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!
Max von Essen, An American in Paris

Wildcard
Paul Alexander Nolan, Doctor Zhivago


Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Alysha Umphress in On the Town #HildyneedsaTony

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Hildy needs a Tony. I firmly believe that had On the Town opened during the spring glut of shows and was therefore fresh on everyone's mind, Alysha Umphress would be this year's James Monroe Inglehart (re: the clear frontrunner). But Umphress has done shockingly poorly in this year's guild awards, which makes me seriously question her chances at even a nomination, let along a win. Her costars Megan Fairchild and Elizabeth Stanley have both been nominated for other awards, and could potentially edge Umphress out here, particularly the sublime Stanley. I still think Umphress has a good shot at the nomination, but she is not a sure thing and will have an uphill battle if she wants to take home the actual trophy.

Fun Home's Judy Kuhn, however, is pretty close to a sure thing, even if her immense talent is underutilized by Jeanine Tesori and Judy Kuhn's chamber musical. I also think the love for Something Rotten! will spread to industry favorite Heidi Blickenstaff, similarly underutilized but benefiting from being the largest female presence in this spring's industry darling. The King and I's Ruthie Ann Miles is *not* underutilized, but her performance is so compelling that you still want more of her deliciously complicated Lady Thiang. It's quite an accomplished Broadway debut for the actress and will almost assuredly lead to a Tony nomination for the captivating performer, who made a splash in the Public Theatre's Here Lies Love back in 2013.

Conventional wisdom indicates that at least one of the many supporting players in It Shoulda Been You gets nominated in this category, although the community's love of both Tyne Daly and Harriett Harris isn't quite strong enough to grant either one of them an automatic nomination, especially in a field as crowded as this one. A similar logic applies to Victoria Clark in Gigi and Nancy Opel in Honeymoon in Vegas, both well-liked talents whose respective shows don't have a lot of momentum headed into Tony Tuesday. And On the Twentieth Century's Mary Louise Wilson is also in contention for her daffy supporting turn as a religious widow, meaning this is really anyone's race.

Nominees
Heidi Blickenstaff, Something Rotten!
Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I
Elizabeth Stanley, On the Town
Alysha Umphress, On the Town

Wildcard
Tyne Daly, It Shoulda Been You


And so concludes my nomination predictions for the 2015 Tony Awards. Tomorrow morning at 8:30 am we'll find out how well I did, and check back tomorrow afternoon to see my gut reactions to this year's nominations. Then strap in for an exciting month of speculation, coverage, and maybe even an extra review or two as we march towards this year's ceremony on June 7th! Until then, you can catch up on what you missed below:

Tony Rule Change
Nominee Predictions: Production
Nominee Predictions: Best Actor
Nominee Predictions: Best Actress

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part III

Although they seem so very far away, the 2015 Tony Awards will be here before you know it. The current winter lull on Broadway is the perfect time to take stock of which fall productions and performers have made a particularly strong impression on critics and Tony voters, thereby keeping them in the conversation when the time comes to hand out Tony nominations on April 28th. I've already discussed the production and lead actor/actress races, so now its time to turn my attention to the Featured Actor and Actress categories. This where I expect the new rule that allows for up to seven nominees in performance categories to have the greatest effect, as past years have seen a wealth of supporting talent go unrecognized due to the categories' previously strict nominee limits. I don't expect every featured race to expand to the maximum possible nominees, but I wouldn't be surprised if one or two did. That said, I'm still going to be relatively conservative in my estimates, as history has proven time and time again that Tony voters favor spring shows.

So who's currently in the best position to hear their name announced on Tony Tuesday? Read on to find out!

WARNING: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Look for Clyde Alves (left) and Jay Armstrong Johnson (right) to join fellow On the Town sailor Tony Yazbeck (center) among this year's Tony nominees.

As with so many things, I'm expecting On the Town to dominate here. I would be shocked and more than a little indignant to see Jay Armstrong Johnson or Clyde Alves excluded from the Featured Actor race, as their work is every bit as compelling as costar and almost assured Best Actor nominee Tony Yazbeck. If some horrible twist of fate leaves only enough room for one of these supremely talented gentlemen, I give the slight edge to Johnson, whose completely endearing Chip benefits from the actor's extreme physicality and a crackling chemistry with Alysha Umphress' Hildy. I also expect at least one of Side Show's featured players to make an appearance here, although a particularly strong spring season might cause Tony voters to forget the excellent work of Matthew Hydzik, Ryan Silverman, and David St. Louis. Silverman is the most likely nominee thanks to his nuanced performance as both the show's primary love interest and antagonist, although St. Louis had the musical's most distinctive male role and sang the powerful ballad "You Should Be Loved," so he cannot be counted out. Also, should Honeymoon in Vegas' Tony Danza be deemed a supporting player despite his above the title billing, he may well make an appearance among the Featured Actor nominees as well.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Two time Tony winner James Earl Jones could well find himself nominated again this year thanks to his turn as the laid back head of the Sycamore clan in You Can't Take It With You.

Despite the abundance of plays this fall, this category appears to be wide open, as many supporting players got good reviews but hardly any got great ones. I doubt the committee will pass up the opportunity to nominate the always reliable James Earl Jones for You Can't Take It With You, although they did pass over his meatier roles in Driving Miss Daisy and Cat on a Hot Tin Roof so you never know. Ian Barford is well-positioned for recognition thanks to his excellent work in the fall's most buzzed about play, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, even though most of that show's praise has focused on the staging and its sensational leading man, Alex Sharp. The well-reviewed but mostly forgotten This Is Our Youth might actually break into the Tony conversation thanks to Kieran Culkin, and I can also see a scenario where Disgraced's Josh Radnor winds up with a nomination. But ultimately I expect the bulk of the nominees in this category to come from this spring's British imports The Audience and Wolf Hall, which feature expansive casts of men playing historical figures in high-minded dramas (re: Tony bait).

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

She can cook too! Alysha Umphress sizzles in John Rando's standout On the Town, a performance which practically demands a Tony nomination and eventual win.

#HildyNeedsaTony

That pretty much sums up my feelings about this year's Best Featured Actress in a Musical Race, as the sensational Alysha Umphress essentially steals On the Town away from her multiple, extremely talented costars. There are few things on Broadway right now more joyous and entertaining than her innuendo-laden "I Can Cook Too," and her magnetic smile and heaven-sent voice make it virtually impossible to look away whenever she's on stage. Literally everyone I know who's seen the show has walked away in love with Umphress, and it would be absolutely unacceptable if she wasn't nominated.

That said, let's talk about Elizabeth Stanley! Umphress' On the Town costar is absolutely astounding as the buttoned up Claire, charting one of the show's biggest character arcs with warmth, grace, and a gorgeously full soprano. Stanley is just as deserving of a nomination as Umphress, and I sincerely hope she is remembered during the nominations process. You also have to at least consider Megan Fairchild for her breathtaking ballets in the same show (as Karine Plantadit proved in 2010, exquisite dancing can net one a Tony nomination). And while I found Jackie Hoffman's On the Town schtick to be a tad strained, there is a lot of love for the longtime scene stealer who has somehow never been in the running for Broadway's highest honor; many feel she's overdue for at least a nomination, and this could finally be the year she gets one.

Clearly, you could almost fill this category solely with On the Town actresses, although I doubt that will actually happen. I consider Umphress and Stanley the safest bets, and they will most likely be joined by Honeymoon in Vegas' Nancy Opel. Like Hoffman, I found Opel's turn to be distractingly too over the top, but many, many reviews heaped praise upon Opel and I wouldn't begrudge her a nomination. Regardless, at this point the award is Umphress' to lose, and I'm not sure my brain could even comprehend the level of brilliance that would be required to wrest it from her.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

After finally breaking through in the Tony-winning Kinky Boots, Annaleigh Ashford gives another abashedly loony performance in this fall's You Can't Take It With You. 

I fully expect at least one of the supporting actresses from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time to make an appearance in this category, although I'm torn as to whether it will be Francesca Faridany or Enid Graham. Faridany is a more prominent and consistent maternal presence throughout the play, but Graham has the kind of heartwrenching scenes that scream "Tony Award," making it possible both actresses wind up among this year's nominees. There is also a strong likelihood previous nominee Annaleigh Ashford makes another trip down the Tony red carpet for her delightfully daffy dancer in You Can't Take It With You.

While no means assured, this category likely represents box office sensation It's Only a Play's best shot at an acting nomination, with Stockard Channing's booze addled diva one of that misguided production's few highlights. Channing also appears content to stick with the production until its early June closing, which means she will be actively performing when Tony voters are making their final decisions, which is always beneficial and an opportunity very few of this fall's actresses will have. For instance, The Elephant Man's Patricia Clarkson will have to rely on costar Bradley Cooper's high profile to keep that production alive in voters' minds, and while Martha Plimpton is in the running for her work in the soon to shutter A Delicate Balance, I'm doubtful many will remember the low buzz show past its closing date.


And there you have it. Those are my extremely early thoughts on this year's major Tony races, all of course subject to change based on the strength or weakness of this spring's offerings. A lot can change between now and late April, and you can bet I will be here through all of it. Stay tuned!

Also, don't forget to check out the rest of my current Tony coverage:

Tony Awards Rule Change
Extremely Early Tony Predictions: Part I
Extremely Early Tony Predictions: Part II

2014 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

Today marks the first round of predictions for what I call the Big 12 categories (the 4 production and 8 acting Tonys handed out each year).  The reason I call them the Big 12 is they are generally seen as the most prestigious of the various Tony awards, and are the ones that are most likely to be bragged about in marketing materials and future Playbill bios.  In short, they seem to be the awards people care about the most, perhaps because they are the easiest ones for non-industry people to assess. 

 

Now normally at this point I would say "ladies first," but the fact of the matter is that the Best Actress and Featured Actress races this year are just more interesting and exciting, so I am saving those for later.  So without further ado, let's talk about this year's Featured Actor contenders!

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Actor Mark Rylance has publicly stated he doesn't believe in the use of microphones during live theatre, probably because he gets tired of doing a mic drop after every sensational performance.

 

Nominees:  Reed Birney, Casa Valentina; Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night; Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night; Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night; Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie

The obvious choice in this category is Mark Rylance.  A two-time Tony-winner who consistently receives critical raves, Rylance's take on Twelfth Night's love-struck Olivia was the talk of the town during the fall and winter months.  Rylance, choosing to emphasize Olivia's petulance and childishness rather than her regal nature, was responsible for more laughs per minute than any other performer this season, with a performance completely supported by Shakespeare's text while still feeling fresh and original.  Rylance certainly has my vote, and for months I've been convinced that this race was his to lose.

However, the fact that two of his hilarious costars also received nominations may cause vote splitting among Tony voters trying to choose their favorite actor from that all-male production.  If too many Twelfth Night fans decide to vote for Paul Chahidi (arguably the best Maria every) or Stephen Fry (a very funny Malvolio), it may allow Brian J. Smith to sneak in a surprise win for his portrayal of the pivotal Gentleman Caller in last fall's critically lauded The Glass Menagerie.  If Casa Valentina had more momentum behind it then Reed Birney might have a chance as a dark horse candidate, but I think critical affection for both Twelfth Night and Menagerie is simply too strong for Birney to overcome.  I'm still predicting a win for Rylance, but I won't be completely shocked if Smith is called up to the podium instead.

Will and Should Win:  Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night

 

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

You ain't never had a friend like Aladdin's James Monroe Iglehart, who has been bringing the house down 8 times a week during his showstopping rendition of the Oscar-nominated "Friend Like Me." 

 

Nominees: Danny Burstein, Cabaret; Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway; Joshua Henry, Violet; James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin; Jarrod Spector, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical

This race is much closer than Featured Actor in a Play, and there are several ways I can imagine it going.  I personally would consider Jarrod Spector the least likely winner, but at the same time the Tony voters clearly have a lot of affection for Beautiful.  As a two-time nominee Joshua Henry is automatically a more competitive than he would be otherwise; being nominated twice proves that the first time wasn't a fluke, and shows Tony voters clearly respect the up and coming performer.  But I just don't think this is Henry's year, which leaves us with three equally compelling candidates.

Aladdin's James Monroe Iglehart is one of the breakout stars of this Broadway season, stopping the show nightly with his fantastic rendition of "Friend Like Me."  Scene-stealing turns do quite well in the Featured categories, and the fact that Iglehart has made the role his own after Robin Williams' iconic work in the film version is mighty impressive.  But Bullets Over Broadway's Nick Cordero has been a consistent figure in every awards race this season, and has even won a couple of the guild awards for his gangster with a heart of gold (Cordero is also the center of his own big production number).  I wouldn't be surprised if he won, but I also have to handicap him since Tony voters are clearly less enamored with Bullets than some of the other awards-granting bodies.

And then there is the reliably great Danny Burstein, a Broadway stalwart who despite 5 career nominations has yet to actually win a Tony Award.  Burstein was robbed (ROBBED!) when Once's Steve Kazee won for his merely adequate Guy over Burstein's revelatory Buddy in Follies, and there is a building consensus among the Broadway community that it's about time the hardworking Burstein got his moment in the sun.  But Tony voters are even cooler towards Cabaret than they are towards Bullets, and I fear Burstein will be passed over once again.  I will give the edge to Iglehart, but Cordero is a strong possibility as well.

Should Win:  Danny Burstein, Cabaret
Will Win:  James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin (which for the record would not be nearly as egregious as picking Kazee over Burstein in 2012)


Be sure to check back daily over the next two weeks to get all the latest Tony coverage.  Next up are the ladies competing for Best Featured Actress, followed by the Lead Actors and Actresses.  And you can catch up on the rest of my Tony coverage by checking out the links below:

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score



2014 Tony Nominations React

Previous Tony-nominee Jonathan Groff and tenuously-connected-to-Broadway Lucy Liu announce the 2014 Tony Award nominations.

They're here!  The 2014 Tony Award nominees were announced bright and early this morning, and there is plenty to discuss (some of it surprising, some of it less so).  But before we go any further, here are the complete list of nominees in the Big 12 categories.  The asterisks indicate nominees that I correctly predicted, and the asterisks in parentheses indicate Wildcard picks that succeeded in making the cut.

Best Play
Act One
*All The Way 
*Casa Valentina 
*Mothers and Sons
*Outside Mullingar

Best Musical
*After Midnight
*Aladdin
*Beautiful: The Carole King Musical
*A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Best Revival of a Play
*The Cripple of Inishmaan
*The Glass Menagerie
(*)A Raisin in the Sun
*Twelfth Night

Best Revival of a Musical
*Hedwig and the Angry Inch
*Les Misérables
*Violet

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
*Bryan Cranston, All The Way
*Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
Mark Rylance, Richard III
*Tony Shalhoub, Act One

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
*Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
(*)LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun
*Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
*Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
*Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
*Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
(*)Ramin Karimloo, Les Misérables
*Andy Karl, Rocky
*Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
*Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
(*)Mary Bridget Davies, A Night with Janis Joplin
*Sutton Foster, Violet
*Idina Menzel, If/Then
*Jessie Mueller, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical
*Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
*Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
*Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
(*)Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night
*Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
*Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan
*Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
*Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
*Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
*Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
*Danny Burstein, Cabaret
*Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
*Joshua Henry, Violet
*James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
*Jarrod Spector, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
*Linda Emond, Cabaret
Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
*Anika Larsen, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical
*Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
(*)Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder


First of all, I'm pretty damn pleased with the accuracy of my guesses.  If you only look at my official predictions, I have an 80% accuracy rate, which jumps to 91% if you include Wildcard predictions as correct guesses.  Now here are some more thoughts on the nominees:

-Considering that most critics felt this was a weak season for new plays on Broadway, I'm surprised to see five nominees in that category while the Best Musical race remains unexpectedly limited to four contenders.  And I'm especially surprised that The Realistic Joneses didn't make the cut even with an expanded field; I guess the nominations committee found the play more off-putting than the press (which was still sharply divided).

-Speaking of Best Musical, I personally am bummed they didn't see fit to nominate The Bridges of Madison County for the top prize.  The show is by no means perfect, but it has an artistic ambition rarely seen on Broadway these days, and I wish that had been acknowledged with a nomination (ditto for If/Then, although having not yet seen that show I don't have as strong an opinion about it's exclusion).

-I try not to actively root against shows, but I feel validated by the relative scarcity of nominations for Rocky.  Apparently the Tony committee was as nonplussed about that misfire as I was.  Note:  While it is not a category I predicted, Alex Timbers' exclusion from the Best Director race is one of the major surprises of the day.

-Why would the Tony committee go through the trouble of deeming Cabaret eligible for Best Revival (when according to the rules it really shouldn't be) only to not nominate it?  That seems unnecessarily cruel and a bit of a slap in the face to Roundabout.  Note:  The exclusion of Cabaret from the category was my Wildcard prediction for that race.  Just sayin'.

-Twelfth Night was undeniably amazing (and easily the best production of that play I've ever seen), but I am gobsmacked by just how well the show did in the acting nominations.  There are five total nods shared among its ensemble, including a surprising but well deserved nod for Samuel Bartlett's Viola.  Sidenote:  In my midseason predictions, I mentioned Bartlett as a dark horse contender, but by the time I made my official predictions I thought some of the heat for this production had died down.  Clearly I was wrong.

-I never considered her a serious contender to win, but I am still shocked by Marin Mazzie's exclusion from the Best Featured Actress in a Musical race.  That role was highly sought after and she beat out some of the industry's biggest name to secure it.  Considering Mazzie has been rather forthcoming with her desire for a Tony Award (despite 3 career nominations she's never won), this can't be what she wanted or expected to happen.

-Congratulations to Mary Bridget Davis for breaking into the extremely competitive Best Actress in a Musical Race.  While I personally skipped A Night with Janis Joplin because that music doesn't appeal to me, I heard nothing but complimentary things about her and she should be proud that she made enough of an impression to get nominated despite her show being long closed.

-I really really REALLY wish the committee had nominated Lisa O'Hare's acidic Sibella Hallward along with Lauren Worsham's equally deserving Phoebe D'Ysquith.  A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder has one of the most talented quartet of leads of any Broadway show right now, and it would have been wonderful to see all four of them recognized with nominations.



I will of course have lots more Tony coverage in the coming weeks (including some reviews for more Tony nominated shows), but before I go I want to leave you with one final thought.  Every year there is a lot of talk about who gets "snubbed" by the Tonys, and this year there seems to be even more chatter than normal.  But let's not allow the grousing and griping to take away from the achievement of the people who did get nominated; it is quite an achievement, and they deserve to be celebrated.

Check back all month for more Tony coverage!  And for a more in-depth look at my nominee predictions, look here:
Production
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Featured Actor/Actress

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part IV (Featured Actor/Actress)

I've already gone into great detail about the productions and leading actors/actresses I expect to wake up to good news on Tuesday morning.  (Sidenote: why on earth are Tony nominations announced so early when the people they're honoring typically don't go into work until 6 pm or later?)  Now I'm going to attempt the most difficult predictions of all:  the Featured Actor and Actress nominees.

Why are these categories so hard to predict?  Because whereas the production and lead actor categories have a relatively limited pool of eligible nominees, almost everyone who sets foot on a Broadway stage is could conceivably be nominated in the Featured categories, which makes narrowing things down much more difficult.  Historically, this is also the area with the biggest number of "surprise" nominations for people who weren't on anyone's radar.  (Did you know who Elizabeth A. Davis was before the 2012 Tony nominations?  Do you know who she is now???)  But using my time honored combination of first hand experience, industry buzz, and gut feeling, I'm making predictions anyway, including at least one Wildcard per category that could potentially unseat one of my official guesses.

Best Featured Actress (Play)

Oscar-nominee Sophie Okonedo will probably be able to add "Tony nominee" to her resume after tomorrow's nominations are announced.

The sure-bet here is Celia Keenan-Bolger for her Laura in last fall's acclaimed The Glass Menagerie.  She will certainly be joined by at least one of the ladies from A Raisin in the Sun, although at this point deciding between Sophie Okonedo and Anika Noni Rose feels arbitrary.  Okonedo got slightly more rapturous reviews, although she is also playing the same role that won Audra McDonald the Tony only ten years ago, which is a mighty powerful memory to overcome.  Rose is a previous Tony winner and is playing the one female role which wasn't honored with an award the last time around, so recognizing her would allow Tony voters to feel less like they're repeating themselves.  There's also the very real possibility the committee will double down and nominate both women, which is what my gut is telling me at this moment.

After that, things get harder to predict.  Andrea Martin just won the Tony last year, but that hasn't mattered much to voters recently (see Judith Light's back-to-back wins), and the committee tends to be impressed by actors tackling multiple roles like Martin does in Act One.  Although I have not personally seen or even heard much buzz about Casa Valentina, Mare Winningham recently scored herself an Outer Critics Circle nomination for her work in that Harvey Fierstein play, which makes her a contender here as well.  And there is the dim but still possible chance that Jayne Houdyshell is remembered for her role as the Nurse in the ill-fated Romeo & Juliet revival from last fall; she did manage to beat out all of her Follies costars a couple of years ago, although that show was much better liked than Romeo.

Nominees:
Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
Andrea Martin, Act One
Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina

Wildcard:
Jayn Houdyshell, Romeo & Juliet

Beat Featured Actor (Play)

Honestly, any of the men from last fall's Twelfth Night are worthy of a Tony nominations, although it is Mark Rylance (left) and Paul Chahidi (second from left) who have the greatest chance of actually being recognized.

Have they gone ahead and engraved this award with Mark Rylance's name yet?  They might as well, because his buzzed about Olivia in Twelfth Night was such a master class in acting I cannot imagine anyone else wresting this category away from him.  His nomination is a sure thing, and I actually have a very good feeling about his co-star Paul Chahidi being recognized as well for his outstanding Maria.  Chahidi took a role that typically feels more like a narrative device and turned it into a fully fledged, entirely winsome character, and I believe he will be rewarded for it.  My gut is also telling me that Brian J. Smith will complete The Glass Menagerie's hat trick of garnering nominations for the entire cast in all four acting categories.

I'm at a loss as to who else will be competing in this category; there is no shortage of eligible nominees thanks to the abundance of male-dominated plays this season.  Billy Crudup inexplicably scored a Tony nomination for the 2011 revival of Tom Stoppard's Arcadia despite being atrocious in the role; could a similar outcome greet his performance in Waiting for Godot?  Bobby Steggert is giving one of his most naturalistic performances yet in Mothers and Sons and isn't entirely out of the running, although that show is primarily viewed as a Tyne Daly vehicle.  Going back to the Shakespeare plays, Stephen Fry was roundly praised for his Malvolio in Twelfth Night, although having three nominees from the same show seems like a bit much.  All the Way's John McMartin landed among the Outer Critics' list of Best Featured Actors, and Casa Valentina's Reed Birney managed a similar feat with the Drama Desk awards, so both of those actors should be considered in the running as well.

Nominees:
Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
Bobby Steggert, Mothers and Sons

Wildcard:
Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night

Best Featured Actress (Musical)

I had a snappy caption for this photo of Marin Mazzie as Helen Sinclair, but the Bullets Over Broadway star very specifically instructed me not to speak.

Being ruled a featured actress instead of a lead is the best thing that could have happened to Marin Mazzie this year, as moving her into this less competitive category virtually guarantees a nomination for her boozy diva in Bullets Over Broadway.  And it would take quite an unexpected turn of events to keep Linda Emond out of the running for her Fraulein Schneider in Cabaret (who really deserved to win for her stellar performance in Death of a Salesman, so the committee kind of owes her).  There's also a guaranteed nomination in the cards for one of A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's ladies, even though in my ideal world both Lisa O'Hare and Lauren Worsham would be recognized for their outstanding work.  If only one can make the cut, my money is on O'Hare, whose upwardly mobile Sibella Hallward is the more interesting of the two characters since she subverts the typical ingénue troupes. 

Conventional wisdom holds that at least one more female from Bullets Over Broadway will get nominated, although whether it ends up being rising star Betsy Wolfe or Helene York's ditzy blonde is a toss up.  York is more of an unknown, and considering how much Tony voters love a good Cinderella story, York may benefit from their desire to try and crown a new star.  I also think Adriane Lenox has a strong chance at a nomination for her work in After Midnight, a prospect helped by the fact that she is the highest profile stable element of the show (she's been with the production since the beginning, while the Guest Star slot gets a new performer every month or two).  And finally, Anika Larson has scored both a Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nomination for her work in Beautiful, which makes her a major contender for Tony recognition as well.

Nominees:
Linda Edmond, Cabaret
Anika Larson, Beautiful
Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
Lisa O'Hare, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Wildcards:
Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
Helene York, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Featured Actor (Musical)

"Friend Like Me" is the showstopper of the season, and James Monroe Iglehart is a large reason why it works as well as it does.  If that doesn't merit a Tony nomination, I don't know what does.

Like Best Featured Actor in a Play, there is a clear frontrunner for this award right now, and his name is James Monroe Inglehart.  His wisecracking Genie has made him the breakout star of Aladdin, with even the show's detractors admitting that Inglehart is the real deal.  His nomination is assured, and the only real question is who will be joining him.  Danny Burnstein seems like a sure thing for his performance as Herr Schultz in Cabaret; the fact that this Broadway stalwart has not been rewarded with the industry's highest honor is a fact that needs to change sooner rather than later (I will forever maintain that he was ROBBED of the 2012 Best Actor Tony for his revelatory performance in Follies).  And Nick Cordero has been nominated for every acting award so far this season, so I'd consider the Bullets Over Broadway player another lock for a nomination.

As for the remaining two slots, it's really anyone's guess, as there has been no consistency among the nominees in the other awards-given bodies (which tend to lump Broadway and Off-Broadway performances together, meaning less Broadway talent makes the cut).  Could Jarrod Spector benefit from the theatrical community's increasingly warm feelings towards Beautiful?  Will Tony nominators remember Bobby Steggert's performance in Big Fish?  Will the good looking, big voiced Joshua Henry manage to get his second career Tony nod for his supporting work in Violet?  At this point a well-liked performer like If/Then's Anthony Rapp has a decent shot at nabbing a nomination despite being overshadowed by several of his costars in a show that the critics didn't much care for.  There is even the off chance that one of the men from Les Miserables makes the cut, although considering most of those performers are more singers than actors that could raise a few eyebrows.

Nominees:
Danny Burnstein, Cabaret
Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
Joshua Henry, Violet
James Monroe Inglehart, Aladdin
Jarrod Spector, Beautiful

Wildcard:
Bobby Steggert, Big Fish


Well, that caps off my 2014 Tony Awards predictions!  We'll find out how right (or wrong) I was when the official nominations are announced tomorrow morning, so check back in the next couple of days to see how I did.  Until then, you can read the rest of my Tony Awards coverage here:

2014 Tony Predictions Part I (Production)
2014 Tony Predictions Part II (Best Actress)
2014 Tony Predictions Part III (Best Actor)