Extremely Early 2017 Tony Predictions: Part II

As January turns to February, we are experiencing the proverbial calm before the storm. The spring Broadway season swings into gear next month, before the floodgates truly open in March and April. There are a mind boggling 22 productions slated to open between now and the Tony eligibility cutoff date, featuring a proliferation of both known and up and coming talent which makes my yearly tradition of assessing which fall performers are well-positioned for Tony recognition that much harder.

As history has repeatedly shown, the Tony Awards tend to favor currently running and recently premiered productions (hence the glut of scheduled spring openings). While a decent performance in a well-reviewed spring show can be enough to snag a nomination, actors must truly impress critics and Tony voters if they hope to be remembered for their work in a fall show. On the other hand, should the spring shows prove disappointing, a solid performance in a fondly remembered fall production suddenly looks very strong by comparison. It's all a carefully weighted guessing game, so read on of my extremely early - and subject to change - predictions for the major acting races. (You can catch up on my predictions about potential Tony-nominated productions here).

Best Actor in a Play

Denis Arndt and Mary-Louise Parker in Heisenberg.

While there are clear critical favorites among the fall musicals (Falsettos, Dear Evan Hansen, and Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812), the already opened plays are more evenly matched with no obvious frontrunners. For Best Actor in a Play, I think the three gentlemen to keep your eye on are Heisenberg's Denis Arndt, The Encounter's Simon McBurney, and The Present's Richard Roxburgh. Arndt's performance seems like the safest bet given the actor driven nature of Heisenberg, but a nod for McBurney would be a way to honor the entirety of his work on the well-reviewed The Encounter (he also wrote and directed the piece) which seems unlikely to be remembered elsewhere. And Roxburgh can't be ruled out for his excellent work in a play that has been marketed on Cate Blanchett's appeal but ultimately centers around Roxburgh's rakish intellectual.

And then there's John Slattery, whose performance in The Front Page is a bit of a wildcard. Slattery is the only member of the starry ensemble comedy deemed eligible in the Lead Actor category, and the play was certainly well liked, ending up on several Best of 2016 lists. But Slattery was essentially overshadowed in the press by his costar Nathan Lane, despite Lane not making his first appearance until almost an hour into the show (Lane seems like an almost guaranteed Featured Actor nominee). I would expect two of these four men to make the cut, but Slattery feels like the longest shot at the moment.

Best Actor in a Musical

Ben Platt as the title character in Dear Evan Hansen.

There is a clear frontrunner in this category, not just for a nomination but for the eventual trophy. Ben Platt's turn as the title character in Dear Evan Hansen has been the talk of the fall season, a hugely admired performance anchoring a hugely admired show. The buzz surrounding him feels very similar to the buzz which greeted Cynthia Erivo upon her Broadway debut last season, and that worked out very well for the Color Purple star. There's definitely competition on the horizon - Jake Gyllenhaal in Sunday in the Park with George and Andy Karl in Groundhog Day immediately spring to mind, and as much as I'm not looking forward to his performance in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory one cannot deny the Tony's love of Christian Borle - but as of this moment, the Best Actor statue is Platt's to lose.

A case can definitely be made for Josh Groban to work his way into this category, with the recording star doing a very admirable job of embodying the withdrawn Pierre in The Great Comet. Holiday Inn's Bryce Pinkham had more to do in his show than Groban, and one should never underestimate how difficult it is to anchor one of those old-fashioned song and dance spectacles, but Pinkham's inclusion here feels like a long shot. And there's always the possibility Tony voters will decide they like Christian Borle's more measured work in Falsettos than his presumed scenery chewing in Charlie and nominated the former performance instead. Groban still feels like the most likely to be in consideration though, after the surefire Platt.

Best Actress in a Play

Oscar-winner Cate Blanchett and Richard Roxburgh in The Present.

Of the fall actresses, the one I'd most expect to see remembered with a Tony nomination is Mary-Louise Parker for Heisenberg. The Tony-winning actress received across the board raves for her complex, nuanced performance in the two character drama, and there aren't enough female-driven plays on the horizon to put her nomination in jeopardy (unless the shows without name stars over deliver on the acting front). I also think the committee will reward Cate Blanchett's long awaited Broadway debut with a Tony nomination as a way to encourage the actress to come back sooner rather than later, hopefully in a show that makes better use of her talent than the occasionally obtuse The Present. That said, even though she has been deemed a lead you could convincingly argue that Blanchett's character is really a supporting one, which could hurt her chances. An unexpectedly weak showing from the spring actresses could also open up a slot for Janet McTeer's scheming Marquis de Merteuil in Les Liaisons Dangereuses, although it is a long shot.

Best Actress in a Musical

Denee Benton in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812.

I've saved this category for last because it is by far the most competitive; in fact, this is shaping up to be a Tony race for the record books. Among the major names starring in spring musicals: Patti LuPone and Christine Ebersole in War Paint; Bette Midler in arguably the most anticipated musical of the season, Hello, Dolly!; Phillipa Soo in the musical adaptation of Amelie; and Annaleigh Ashford in Sunday in the Park with George. (Glenn Close is not eligible for her starring role in Sunset Boulevard, having previously won the Tony for the same role in 1995.) There's also two-time nominee Laura Osnes in the new musical Bandstand, newcomer Eva Noblezada in Miss Saigon (the role which made Lea Salonga a star), and rumblings of a very strong performance from Jenn Colella in the new musical Come From Away (assuming she is deemed a lead actress and not supporting).

In short, there's a lot of competition out there, and if it is as strong as everyone assumes that doesn't bode well for the fall performers. Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812's Denee Benton seems the most likely to break into the race, assuming support for the boundary pushing musical remains as strong as when it initially premiered. Benton is also one of the only women currently eligible for this award; Stephanie J Block's showstopping performance in Falsettos has been deemed a supporting turn, as has Rachel Bay Jones' heartbreaking work in Dear Evan Hansen (I expect both to be nominated for Best Featured Actress). Which leaves Benton as the sole woman standing, and even her position is precarious barring a category expansion.


And those are my current predictions for the 2017 Tony Award nominees! This is obviously all subject to change based on the spring season, and I will certainly be revisiting this topic prior to the official nominations being announced on May 2nd. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments!

Welcome to Falsettoland

Review: Falsettos

The cast of Falsettos, one of the most hotly anticipated musicals of the fall season.

Alternatively messy and engaging, the first Broadway revival of William Finn and James Lapine's Falsettos highlights the core strengths and weaknesses of the piece in sometimes unexpected ways. Originally premiering on Broadway in 1992, the show is composed of two one act musicals (which debuted Off-Broadway in 1981 and 1990 respectively) that chart the growth of gay protagonist Marvin's unorthodox family over the course of two years. While some of the narrative specifics are deeply tied to the late '70s/early '80s setting, this production thankfully proves the show's core themes of love, family, and identity are universal and still relevant despite the huge advances in gay rights and the advent of marriage equality. Unfortunately, this production also highlights how the William Finn who wrote March of the Falsettos, the basis for Act I, is a far inferior writer to the William Finn who wrote Falsettoland, the basis for Act II.

In Act I, we are introduced to Marvin, who has left his ex-wife Trina and their son Jason to live with his male lover, Whizzer. The breakup of Marvin's traditional family unit has left all three in various states of distress, leading each to seek the help of Mendel, a therapist with questionable professional ethics who ultimately becomes involved with Trina. The second act moves the action forward two years and sees everyone obsessing over the planning of Jason's upcoming bar mitzvah, while also introducing the specter of the AIDS crisis.

Act I proves to be a rather disjointed affair, more of an impressionistic character study than a coherent narrative. The young Finn has yet to refine his signature off-kilter sensibility, which comes across as manic here and lacks the thematic coherence which connects his later flights of fancy. Musically the writing isn't anywhere near as complex or interesting as Finn's later work, and as a result both the performers and director James Lapine (who also wrote the book) seem slightly adrift as they struggle to sell the material. The songs don't build the way you want them to, and Lapine attempts to compensate for this lack of emotional momentum by having the performers constantly rearrange the pieces of David Rockwell's jenga cube of a set. Layer onto this Spencer Liff's awkwardly flailing choreography - which often hinders the performer's ability to enunciate their lyrics - and the first half of Falsettos becomes an exhaustively busy journey with characters that aren't particularly likable or compelling.

Act II is a much richer and more rewarding experience, as it's clear that in the nine years between writing March of the Falsettos and Falsettoland Finn vastly matured as a songwriter and storyteller. Centering the act on Jason's impending bar mitzvah gives Finn and Lapine a stronger foundation to build their characters' quirky behavior around, and Finn becomes much more adept at tempering his characters' off-putting neuroses with humanizing qualities. Even with the introduction of two additional characters - Cordelia and Dr. Charlotte, the "lesbians next door" - everyone feels more nuanced and alive in the second half, and the show does a better job of balancing its wry cynicism with deeply felt emotion. With stronger writing to work with, Lapine and the cast are able to relax; the busy choreography is all but abandoned, and Lapine's staging is less self-consciously showy. The two halves are integrated enough that it would rob Act II of some of its impact to completely throw out Act I, but the jump in quality is pronounced.

The best unifying element of this revival is the strength of its cast, all of whom range from good to great. As Marvin, Christian Borle abandons the scenery chewing that has defined his last two Broadway outings to deliver a more nuanced, believable characterization. Unfortunately, the first half of the show really highlights Marvin's self-serving qualities, something you wish Borle was able to undercut with some tenderness to make him a more likable protagonist. The second act gives Borle a lot more opportunity to show different sides of Marvin, and ultimately your heart breaks with him during the show's final scene (which also features the most striking image of Lapine's staging).

Andrew Rannells is a competent foil as Whizzer, although you wish the show afforded him more of a chance to show off his comedic chops. Brandon Uranowitz brings much appreciated authenticity to his portrayal of Mendel, and young Anthony Rosenthal's innate charm makes the temperamental Jason feel like a real preteen rather than an adult author's caricature of one. Tracie Thoms and Betsy Wolfe are a welcomed presence as the next door neighbors, with Thoms notably in very fine voice throughout.

But the cast's biggest standout is Stephanie J. Block, back on Broadway for the first time since her Tony-nominated turn in The Mystery of Edwin Drood. As Trina, Block blossoms into the most compellingly drawn and engaging character in the show, to the point where she often feels like the lead in what is ostensibly Marvin's show. Block is certainly its emotional center, which makes her effortless delivery of "I'm Breaking Down," one of the most broadly comedic songs in the show, all the more impressive. Block offers a fascinating peak beneath Trina's determinedly perfect facade, showing us a woman not wholly prepared to deal with the curveballs life has given her and yet soldiering on anyway. It is a marvelously accomplished performance which is endlessly watchable and yet never overstated.

Overall, there is both good and bad to be found in Falsettos, and it's unfortunate that the less successful elements are concentrated in the first half. By the end of the night, Falsettos proves to be an engaging and even moving portrait of an imperfect yet loving family, with the talented cast doing much to smooth over the rough patches at the beginning of the show. When the show stops being concerned with novelty and showiness, it truly sings, illustrating how the trials and tribulations of love and family are the same no matter what your sexual orientation.

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

Broadway's biggest night is just over two weeks away, and the entire industry is wondering who will walk away from the 2015 Tony Awards a winner. And since rampant awards speculation is one of my favorite pastimes, I am continuing my survey of the productions and people I think are most likely to win big on June 7th. Now that I've predicted some of the behind the scenes winners, it's time to move on to what I lovingly call the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production awards seem to be the ones that carry the most industry clout, as well as provoking the most intense speculation among the theatrical community, and I would argue they are the ones the general public is most interested in when they tune in to the annual Tony telecast.

Of course, who will win and who is most deserving are not always one and the same, which can make any Tony predictions doubly difficult. So should I feel someone besides the most deserving person will be giving an acceptance speech that Sunday, I will make sure to say so in my analysis. Now without further ado, here are my thoughts on two of the most wide open races in this year's awards: the Featured Actor categories.

Warning: Occasional snark and wild speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathaniel Parker as the volatile Henry VIII in British import Wolf Hall.

Nominees: Matthew Beard, Skylight; K. Todd Freeman, Airline Highway; Richard McCabe, The Audience; Alessandro Nivola, The Elephant Man; Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Micah Stock, It's Only a Play

I'll admit, I was caught completely by surprise when they announced this category's nominees; the only person who was even on my radar was Wolf Hall's Nathaniel Parker. I also find it interesting that of all the acting categories, this was the only one where the votes were close enough to prompt an expansion to six nominees, further indicating what a tight race we have on our hands.

Despite being one of three central figures in the critically acclaimed Elephant Man revival, I think Alessandro Nivola is at a major disadvantage as the only nominee whose show isn't currently running. I also don't have a very good feeling about K. Todd Freeman, as no one seems to be talking about Airline Highway and the show's box office is so paltry that Manhattan Theatre Club has shortened the play's run (a rare move for a non-profit). And since any discussion of The Audience generally begins and ends with how brilliant Helen Mirren is, I don't find Richard McCabe to be particularly competitive in this category.

The three most likely winners are the aforementioned Parker, Skylight's Matthew Beard, and It's Only a Play's Micah Stock. I personally don't see what is Tony worthy about Stock's performance, as the actor's biggest laughs come from the absurd celebrity coats he brings onstage rather than anything the young actor actually says or does. And not to diminish Beard's work, but Skylight is often described as a two-hander between the roundly praised Bill Nighy and Carey Mulligan, which leads me to believe the actor's role is relatively modest and somewhat inconsequential to the plot. Which makes Parker the most likely winner in my eyes, given his larger than life character's importance to Wolf Hall's plot and the fact that Tony voters and the industry in general are clearly enamored with the British double bill.

Will Win: Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall Parts I & II
Should Win: Haven't seen enough nominees to know

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Andy Karl flexes his comic muscles in Roundabout Theatre's On the Twentieth Century.

Nominees: Christian Borle, Something Rotten!; Any Karl, On the Twentieth Century; Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!; Brandon Uranowitz, An American in Paris; Max von Essen, An American in Paris

Multiple nominees from the same show in the same category has been a recurring theme in recent years (see: the two Book of Mormon leads, the multiple women from A Raisin in the Sun last year). This always raises the question of if they will split votes, although the phenomenon has produced enough actual winners (Kinky Boots' Billy Porter, Raisin's Sophie Okonedo) that it is obviously not an insurmountable obstacle.

Of the two Something Rotten! nominees, I actually think Brad Oscar has the edge over his Tony-winning costar Christian Borle. Oscar is a hardworking character actor who has been a part of the community for years, headlines Rotten's biggest and best production number, and gets most of the show's best lines ("A show about cats???"). Borle is certainly a beloved performer, reusing many of the same tricks that led to his previous win for Peter and the Starcatcher, but I suspect voters may choose to spread the love this year. Both men from An American in Paris are helped by being in a heavily nominated show - the fact that Paris is tied for the most nominations virtually guarantees every voter will see it - but at the same time the performances aren't necessarily the first thing people mention when discussing the new Gershwin musical.

And then there's Andy Karl, the wildcard who could spoil everyone's fun. Like several of the nominees in this category, Karl is a longtime staple of the Broadway community who is very well liked. After earning critical acclaim and a Tony nomination for playing the title character in the deadly serious Rocky, he has gone to the opposite end of the spectrum with his over the top performance as Kristin Chenoweth's musclebound boy toy in On the Twentieth Century. Karl's comic timing is impeccable and his chemistry with Chenoweth palpable (they are easily the season's funniest pair), and as much as I would love to see Oscar recognized I think this may well be Karl's year.

Will Win: Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
Should Win: Probably Karl, but I am partial to Something Rotten's Brad Oscar


Check back every Monday and Friday between now and the Tony telecast to see the rest of my predictions, and don't forget to check out the rest of my awards coverage if you haven't already!

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Director and Choreography

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part IV (Featured Actor/Actress)

Every year I make a ton of Tony nominee predictions, and every year I struggle over whether to include the Featured Actor and Actress categories. These are often the hardest categories to get a read on before the nominations come out, since most performances in a given season fall under the Featured umbrella. Making things even more complex this year is the fact that these categories can now include anywhere from five to seven nominees, and I expect we'll see several of these races expand past the traditional five performer cap.

I'm basing a large portion of these predictions on speculation and gut feeling, as I unfortunately have not seen anywhere near all the eligible performances. I will also be predicting at least one Wildcard nominee in each category in an attempt to cover my bases in case the nominations committee decides to forgo the obvious candidates. Check back Tuesday afternoon to see how I did!


Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathaniel Parker (right) as King Henry VIII, the source of all the trouble in the Royal Shakespeare Company's transfer of Wolf Hall.

The large number of ensemble plays this season makes this category a virtual nightmare to predict, especially since it lacks any obvious frontrunners. The smart money says at least some of Wolf Hall's sprawling ensemble makes the cut, probably from among the plays' key players like Nathaniel Parker's Henry VIII or Paul Jessen's multiple clergymen. Fellow West End import The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time will also likely produce a competitor in this category, with Ian Barford's beautiful complex portrayal of the protagonist's father a prime candidate for recognition. And while Helen Mirren is the undisputed star of The Audience, she wouldn't be able to give the performance she does without help from all those prime ministers she interacts with; Mirren's star wattage will almost surely lift a costar or two into consideration (perhaps Dakin Matthews' Winston Churchill or Rufus Wright's Tony Blair).

Last fall's You Can't Take It With You was filled with memorable supporting turms, chief among them James Earl Jones as the Sycamore family patriarch. Jones is a very strong candidate for a fourth career nomination, and I also have a fairly good feeling that Bryce Pinkham will be making a return trip to the Tony red carpet for his role in The Heidi Chronicles (Boyd Gaines won a Tony for playing Pinkham's role in the play's original production). Hand to God was so well received that the industry's love of the boundary pushing play could translate into multiple acting nominations, although in all honesty both of the male supporting players pale in comparison to the brilliance of leading man Steven Boyer. Marc Kudish is respected enough among his peers that it could bolster his chances, even if his role as the local pastor is mostly reactionary. And while it's not inconceivable that one of the supporting players in It's Only a Play could get nominated, I do think it unlikely, as Nathan Lane's lead performance was the only one of any note in that revival.

Nominees
Ian Barford, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
James Earl Jones, You Can't Take It With You
Marc Kudish, Hand to God
Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall
Bryce Pinkham, The Heidi Chronicles

Wildcard
Paul Jessen, Wolf Hall


Best Featured Actress in a Play

Annaleigh Ashford has no vanity when it comes to the characters she plays, as proven by this charming photo from You Can't Take It With You.

This is still a wide open category, although with a few more safe bets than the Featured Actor race. I will be shocked if Annaleigh Ashford doesn't get nominated for her delightfully daffy ballerina in You Can't Take It With You, and I think there is a good chance she will be joined by her costar and onstage mother Kristine Nielsen. You Can't Take It With You also featured a textbook definition of a scene-stealer in Julie Halston, whose Tony worthiness can be summed up in two words: the stairs. (If you didn't see the show, Halston turned an almost entirely wordless drunken climb up the set's staircase into a showstopping moment). And as the most prominent female presence in critical darling Wolf Hall, Lydia Leonard is in a very good position to find her name listed among the nominees on Tony Tuesday.

I adored Francesca Faridany in Curious Incident, with her soothing motherly presence serving as the perfect counterpoint to the play's frantic portrayal of an autistic youth's journey of self-discovery. But her equally strong costar Enid Graham's role calls for more obvious "acting," and if only one of these ladies makes the cut it will likely be Graham. This category is also It's Only a Play's best chance at scoring an acting nomination, as Stockard Channing's fading diva was the revival's funniest and most effective performance after leading man Nathan Lane. Fish in the Dark, Broadway's other star-studded ensemble comedy, could also find itself represented here thanks to the performances of Rita Wilson (who is unfortunately on medical leave from the production but is scheduled to return soon after nominations are announced), Rosie Perez, and Jayne Houdyshell. This is a close race that will benefit from the committee's ability to nominate more than five performances, although I doubt the votes will be *quite* close enough to force an expansion to the maximum seven.

Nominees
Annaleigh Ashford, You Can't Take It With You
Stockard Channing, It's Only a Play
Francesca Faridany, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Enid Graham, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Julie Halston, You Can't Take It With You
Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall

Wildcard
Kristine Nielsen, You Can't Take It With You
Rita Wilson, Fish in the Dark


Best Featured Actor in a Musical

I'll be honest: while I enjoy him, I don't *quite* get the unabashed love for Christian Borle (center), a major contender for this year's awards thanks to his over the top performance in Something Rotten!

This is a very competitive category, as many of the season's big musicals have multiple performances worthy of inclusion here. If the other industry awards are anything to go by, Something Rotten! will be the show to beat this season, and will surely produce at least one Featured Actor nominee. Conventional wisdom says it will be Christian Borle's preening, pompous Billie Shakespeare, although I personally preferred the hammy antics of Brad Oscar as the soothsayer who suggests creating a musical in the first place. Not only does Oscar feel like he's in the same show as everyone else (Borle's collection of tics, while very funny, often make is seem like he's wandered in from a different production), but Oscar also leads the showstopping "A Musical" number that the company will almost surely perform on this year's Tony telecast. I suspect both men will find themselves nominated on Tuesday morning.

Last fall's On the Town also produced a pair of Tony-worthy performances from sailors Jay Armstrong Johnson and Clyde Alves. If only one of these gentlemen makes the cut, my money is on Johnson, whose incredibly endearing Chip also benefits from having one of this season's best scene partners, Alysha Umphress' sensational Hildy. From the spring shows, Andy Karl makes quite an impression as Kristin Chenoweth's buffoonish boy toy in On the Twentieth Century, and has thus far been rewarded with Featured Actor nominations in the various guild awards. I strongly suspect the Tony committee will follow suit, making Karl one of the relatively rare back-to-back acting nominees. And while Doctor Zhivago received some of the harshest reviews of the season, I wouldn't be surprised if Paul Alexander Nolan's supporting turn in that show nets him some Tony love, as he was one of the overblown epic's few highlights. And finally, as recipients of both Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nominations, It Shoulda Been You's Josh Grisetti and An American in Paris' Max von Essen are very strong contenders that I would be surprised to see excluded from this year's proceedings.

Nominees
Christian Borle, Something Rotten!
Josh Grisetti, It Shoulda Been You
Jay Armstrong Johnson, On the Town
Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!
Max von Essen, An American in Paris

Wildcard
Paul Alexander Nolan, Doctor Zhivago


Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Alysha Umphress in On the Town #HildyneedsaTony

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Hildy needs a Tony. I firmly believe that had On the Town opened during the spring glut of shows and was therefore fresh on everyone's mind, Alysha Umphress would be this year's James Monroe Inglehart (re: the clear frontrunner). But Umphress has done shockingly poorly in this year's guild awards, which makes me seriously question her chances at even a nomination, let along a win. Her costars Megan Fairchild and Elizabeth Stanley have both been nominated for other awards, and could potentially edge Umphress out here, particularly the sublime Stanley. I still think Umphress has a good shot at the nomination, but she is not a sure thing and will have an uphill battle if she wants to take home the actual trophy.

Fun Home's Judy Kuhn, however, is pretty close to a sure thing, even if her immense talent is underutilized by Jeanine Tesori and Judy Kuhn's chamber musical. I also think the love for Something Rotten! will spread to industry favorite Heidi Blickenstaff, similarly underutilized but benefiting from being the largest female presence in this spring's industry darling. The King and I's Ruthie Ann Miles is *not* underutilized, but her performance is so compelling that you still want more of her deliciously complicated Lady Thiang. It's quite an accomplished Broadway debut for the actress and will almost assuredly lead to a Tony nomination for the captivating performer, who made a splash in the Public Theatre's Here Lies Love back in 2013.

Conventional wisdom indicates that at least one of the many supporting players in It Shoulda Been You gets nominated in this category, although the community's love of both Tyne Daly and Harriett Harris isn't quite strong enough to grant either one of them an automatic nomination, especially in a field as crowded as this one. A similar logic applies to Victoria Clark in Gigi and Nancy Opel in Honeymoon in Vegas, both well-liked talents whose respective shows don't have a lot of momentum headed into Tony Tuesday. And On the Twentieth Century's Mary Louise Wilson is also in contention for her daffy supporting turn as a religious widow, meaning this is really anyone's race.

Nominees
Heidi Blickenstaff, Something Rotten!
Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I
Elizabeth Stanley, On the Town
Alysha Umphress, On the Town

Wildcard
Tyne Daly, It Shoulda Been You


And so concludes my nomination predictions for the 2015 Tony Awards. Tomorrow morning at 8:30 am we'll find out how well I did, and check back tomorrow afternoon to see my gut reactions to this year's nominations. Then strap in for an exciting month of speculation, coverage, and maybe even an extra review or two as we march towards this year's ceremony on June 7th! Until then, you can catch up on what you missed below:

Tony Rule Change
Nominee Predictions: Production
Nominee Predictions: Best Actor
Nominee Predictions: Best Actress

Definitely Not Rotten, but Perhaps a Tad Stale

Review: Something Rotten!

Welcome to the Renaissance, or at least Something Rotten's comically askew version of it.

Will you look at that? An honest to goodness original musical has appeared at the St. James Theatre in the guise of Something Rotten, although "original" is a relative term here. While not based on any preexisting source material, this show about the fictional creation of the world's first musical is heavily influenced in structure and tone by past backstage musicals, most noticeably The Producers (with a healthy helping of Spamalot thrown in for good measure). It's an unfortunate comparison to invoke, as the misadventures of Bialystock and Bloom make for a more satisfying evening of theatre, but that doesn't stop Something Rotten from being a mostly charming confection that is one or two revisions away from real greatness.

Set in Renaissance England, this is the story of Nick and Nigel Bottom, two playwriting brothers who are struggling to attract any attention in a field dominated by everyone's favorite playwright, William "The Bard" Shakespeare. Desperate for respect and wanting to provide a better home for his family, Nick seeks the advice of a local soothsayer named Nostradamus (the cousin of the one you're thinking of), who peers into the future to give Nick the revolutionary and potentially terrible idea of adding song and dance numbers to his play. Amidst great skepticism, Nick and Nigel plunge forward with their newly created musical while trying to secure financing, avoid Puritan outrage, and prevent Shakespeare from stealing their idea and passing it off as his own.

Something Rotten is a love letter to the joyous ridiculousness of musical theatre, and your level of enjoyment will partially depend on just how versed you are in the medium's history. While anyone can appreciate the show's many sight gags and clever wordplay, Something Rotten is a show targeted squarely at the theatre kid who can identify "Big Spender" by its opening vamp and correctly recognize a single line of Shakespeare's iambic pentameter. If that's you, there is a nearly endless stream of knowing winks in the book and score guaranteed to make you smile, but if you have trouble telling Annie from La Cage aux Folles then you may find yourself wondering what everyone else is laughing at. The book by Broadway neophytes Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell is great at reference-heavy metahumor, but has less success establishing meaningful character relationships or coming up with a satisfactorily plotted ending (to be fair, the latter is an area in which even well-respected classics struggle).

The score by brothers Wayne and Karey Kirkpatrick freely quotes famous musicals from all eras, an amusing conceit that also robs the show of a strong musical identity of its own. Luckily, most songs are saved by the Kirkpatricks' exceedingly clever lyrics, which are filled with well-crafted rhymes while being self-aware enough to jokingly acknowledge when they resort to cheating. And with the extraordinarily talented Casey Nicholaw at the show's helm, every musical number is staged with an unabashed zaniness that makes it easy to forgive any melodic clunkiness. Nicholaw's choreography tends towards frantic here, but he has also crafted a couple of genuine showstoppers, the highlight of which is "A Musical," the extended fantasia in the middle of Act I which encapsulates nearly every iconic moment from the past 100 years of musical theatre.

The show's cast is very good, although they lack that indefinable magic that would elevate them to the level of a truly great comedic ensemble. Brian d'Arcy James leads the cast with supreme confidence and excellent timing as Nick Bottom, although it's a shame he's never truly given an opportunity to showcase his magnificent voice. John Cariani is less effective as the nebbish Nigel, partly due to his underwritten character and partly due to the actor's own unfocused - though undeniably charming - mannerisms. Brad Oscar absolutely kills as Nostradamus; he has the advantage the script's best jokes, but it is his impeccable delivery that elevates the character's wink-wink-nudge-nudge observations into side-splitting laugh lines. Heidi Blickenstaff and Kate Reinders handle their love interest roles with aplomb, and Brooks Ashmanskas is his usual hammy self in the role of self-righteous Puritan Brother Jeremiah.

And then there's Christian Borle. Borle hasn't been seen on Broadway since his Tony-winning turn as Black Stache in Peter and the Starcatcher, and the self-indulgent William Shakespeare is the perfect role for his triumphant return. The show portrays Shakespeare as a rockstar, right down to the exceedingly tight leather pants, and Borle's primping and preening is hilariously off-putting. Not every aspect of his characterization fits in with the rest of the show - Borle's faux British accent sounds nothing like anyone else onstage - but his is such an effectively pompous performance that you're apt not to care.

Visually, the show is a treat, a stylized rendition of Elizabethan England that exaggerates select elements to perfectly navigate that delicate space between whimsical fantasy and grounded reality. Scott Pask's versatile set is intricate without being flashy, and Gregg Barnes' gorgeous period costumes have a great deal of fun with the more elaborate elements of Renaissance garb (specifically, bustles and codpieces). Everything is beautifully lit by Jeff Croiter, whose brightly colored lighting design helps keep the piece airy and fun.

Something Rotten is certainly an entertaining show, and it's easy to understand why the producers bypassed a scheduled out-of-town tryout to fast-track its Broadway premiere. That said, the show probably would have benefited from some more fine tuning, specifically in the tone department. O'Farrell and the Kirkpatricks can't decide just how raunchy they want to be, occasionally self-censoring in a way that dampens the fun. They're seemingly fine with graphic descriptions of the body's reaction to the bubonic plague, but stop just short of making the obvious sexual innuendos implied by the protagonists' surname (if you're going to write a song called "Bottom's Gonna Be on Top," you can't be afraid to really go there). Still, they get points for creating something without pre-existing source material, and the game cast and strong direction help to smooth over any weaknesses in the writing. There are certainly worse ways to spend a night in the theatre, and while the show may not always feel fresh, it is very far from rotten.


*Note: This review is based on the second preview performance. While I have tried to take into account likely improvements, depending on how many changes the creative team makes this review may not be representative of the final product*

The Long Road to Broadway

Review: Smash Season 2 Premiere

Jennifer Hudson and Katherine McPhee prove that once upon time, American Idol actually produced marketable talent.

NBC had a lot riding on Smash, the big, expensive musical drama about the creation of a Marilyn Monroe musical called Bombshell.  After a stellar pilot, the show somewhat undeservedly became one of the most mocked pieces of entertainment in pop culture, resulting in the firing of creator/showrunner Theresa Rebeck and several major cast members.  Following an extended hiatus to accommodate the show’s retooling, Smash has finally returned with a two hour premiere that largely resembles last year’s incarnation, although under the surface lurks a host of subtle but significant tweaks with the potential to radically increase the show’s overall quality.

Season two of Smash picks up right where season one left off, with the cast and creative team of Bombshell eyeing a Broadway transfer after a largely successful run in Boston.  Karen (Katherine McPhee) received glowing reviews for her performance as Marilyn, while critics also singled out director Derek (Jack Davenport) and composer Tom (Christian Borle) for their many contributions.  Unfortunately, the press wasn’t so enamored with Julia’s (Debra Messing) libretto, and the behind the scenes shenanigans that plagued Bombshell’s development now threaten to overshadow the final product.  Meanwhile poor Ivy (Megan Hilty) finds herself struggling to get back in Karen’s good graces after sleeping with the rising star’s boyfriend, a move that has caused the entire creative team to give her the cold shoulder.

One thing new showrunner Joshua Safran has repeatedly promised is that Smash 2.0 would focus more on the backstage drama and less on the character’s soapy personal lives.  The season premiere certainly supports that statement, with all unresolved interpersonal plotlines wrapped up by little more than a wave of the hand before new show-related conflicts are introduced.  While this is a welcomed bit of house cleaning, it eats up a large portion of the premiere’s first hour and makes that episode feel like a repeat of the misguided tonal shifts perpetrated under Rebeck’s guidance last year.  In fact, the first hour is so hamstrung by having to clean up last season’s mess that I’d wager the decision to have a supersized premiere was driven primarily by the network’s desire to trot out the second episode as a better example of what season two has in store.

The new storylines introduced during the premiere are actually quite interesting, and executed with a more consistent tone and pace than we’ve previously seen.  The Rebecca-inspired financial woes Bombshell encounters show promise, and illustrate that Eileen (Anjelica Huston) should really be more suspicious of her bartender boyfriend’s extensive bank account.  Having serial womanizer Derek hit with a succession of sexual harassment lawsuits is a stroke of genius that makes excellent use of the delightfully smarmy Davenport, and the addition of Jennifer Hudson as a Tony-winning actress/inspirational figure for Karen brings with it a welcomed dose of spunk and genuine star wattage.  (As expected, Hudson’s musical numbers are positively thrilling.)

But the storyline with the biggest implications for Smash’s future is the introduction of a competing musical being developed by struggling Brooklyn songwriters Jimmy (Jeremy Jordan) and Kyle (Andy Mientus).  It accomplishes the hat trick of providing a point of contrast by which to judge Bombshell’s progress, creating conflict by offering the possibility of key cast members jumping ship, and making Smash’s world seem more alive by not having Bombshell exist in the vacuum.  Bad-boy Jimmy also makes an intriguing love interest for Karen by virtue of being the only person who doesn’t immediately worship the ground she walks on, although right now the character is so aggressively off-putting it somewhat negates any narrative appeal he provides.

Speaking of Karen, the struggling artist from Iowa has emerged as the show’s most problematic character, a handicap made even more maddening by the fact that she is clearly intended to be Smash’s protagonist.  Her experience in Boston has replaced her wide-eyed naivety with an unearned sense of entitlement, resulting in diva-esque behavior that makes her increasingly hard to root for.  Karen now treats Ivy with the same disdain Ivy exhibited for poor, sweet Karen in season one, but whereas Ivy was eventually scolded and told to tone down her hatred the other characters are inexplicably willing to support Karen’s vindictiveness.  On the plus side, this has allowed Ivy to revert back to the insecure but likably ambitious woman she was in the pilot, becoming a much more compelling character in the process (and her budding friendship with Julia certainly doesn’t hurt matters).

Overall, the first two hours of this season of Smash give us a show that is slowly but surely recovering from the dark days of Bollywood-inspired fantasy numbers that marked season one’s low point.  The show still has its quirks, including an eye-roll inducing transition into a Derek-centric musical number and a couple of highly implausible plot contrivances (Karen is apparently the only actress in New York who still lists her physical address on her resume).  But many of last season’s most glaring problems are conspicuously absent – although I fear dearly departed Ellis may reappear further down the line – and replaced with a slicker, more coherent tale of backstage politics and rival projects.  The show has a vast untapped potential, and hopefully Safran and crew can harness it to create true must-see TV as the season progresses.

Podcast Episode 9: "Smash"-travaganza Season 2

Tonight's the night!  In honor of the highly anticipated return of NBC's musical drama Smash, the podcast discusses the announced changes for the new season and whether they will help or hinder the famously uneven show.  Do a new showrunner, a new musical (the younger, hipper Hit List), and the addition of Jennifer Hudson sound like music to Jared, Jessica, and Spencer's ears?  Find out below.

Podcast Episode 8: "Smash"-travaganza Season 1

Next week marks the much-hyped return of NBC's backstage musical drama, Smash.  In anticipation of this momentous event, Jared, Jessica, and Spencer sit down to discuss the strengths and flaws of the show's first season. Given the multitude of characters and abandoned storylines, there's plenty to discuss, and hopefully they can do it in a way that's more coherent than an awkwardly inserted Bollywood fantasy number. And be sure to tune in early next week for the Season 2 preview

Peter and the Overly Ambitious Creative Team

Review:  Peter and the Starcatcher

It’s difficult to know what to make of Peter and the Starcatcher, the stage adaptation of the 2004 children’s novel which serves as a Peter Pan prequel.  There is a bevy of talent on display, both onstage and behind the scenes, and the almost endlessly inventive production flies by at such a brisk pace that only the most impatient theatregoers will be bored.  Yet Peter also contains some maddeningly large missteps that are all the more intolerable because of the quality that surrounds them.

The plot is a rousing adventure in which Lord Astor and his daughter Molly attempt to smuggle a chest full of secret treasure out of England at the behest of Queen Victoria.  Unfortunately, their clever plan involving a decoy ship and fake treasure runs into complications when a greedy captain decides he would rather have the treasure for himself.  To make matters worse, a group of pirates led by the maniacal Black Stache simultaneously attack the convoy, and on top of all THAT, Molly discovers a group of orphans about to be sold into slavery, among them an unnamed Boy with a strong dislike of grown-ups (three guesses as to who he becomes).

If all that sounds complicated, it is, and the fact that Peter and the Starcatcher remains coherent throughout is a testament to Rick Elice’s script and the sharp direction by Roger Rees and Alex Timbers.  Despite appearing to be a children’s play, Peter never talks down to its audience, and includes something for people of all ages.  For the kids, there is plenty of physical comedy and even the occasional fart joke, while copious amounts of wordplay and some clever innuendo will keep the adults in the audience interested as well.  The story is so interesting that it’s almost a shame it must tie into the preexisting Peter Pan mythos, as the play’s resolution forgoes a satisfying finale in favor of setting up Peter’s coming adventure with Wendy.

Despite a strong cast (more on them in a bit), Rees and Timbers’ direction and the astounding design work are the real stars here.  The most complicated piece of machinery used is a rolling staircase; almost every you see could be found or easily manufactured by an amateur theatre troupe.  Rees and Timbers use basic items like ropes, umbrellas, and toy ships to communicate cramped holding cells, tropical rainstorms, great naval battles, flying cats and even that famed giant crocodile.  Donyale Werle’s simple set design proves endlessly adaptable, and is lit to perfection by Jeff Croiter’s gorgeous lights.  Paloma Young’s costumes give each character an identity while remaining basic enough to allow the actors to easily transition between characters, and her mermaid outfits alone justify her recent Tony win. 

In fact, there is so much theatrical invention on display that it can become distracting.  Everyone involved is so concerned with proving their creativity that the physical production often takes precedent over the story.  Entire swaths are dialogue are rendered incomprehensible due to the onstage hubbub of actors moving props, miming scenery, and creating constantly changing stage pictures.  All of this visual information is generally clear enough to prevent confusion, but it would have been nice to see these supremely talented folk put more faith in Elice’s sterling script and strike a better balance between the visual and auditory.

As for the actors, they fully commit to their roles and each other, forming a tight-knit ensemble willing to do anything to support their fellow performers.  They allow themselves to be used as set dressing, props, and even furniture, while still creating distinct and even compelling characters.  And if those characters tend towards broadly drawn outlines rather than fully realized individuals, it’s hard to fault the actors for lack of trying.

As the strong-willed but good-hearted Molly, Celia Keenan-Bolger emerges as the production’s heart and soul, anchoring the zaniness of her male co-stars with her no-nonsense yet still hilarious performance.  Arnie Burton is equally charming as Molly’s nanny Mrs. Bumbrake, and Rick Holmes proves to be an excellent authority figure as Lord Astor.  Teddy Bergman spends most of the first act playing supporting roles, but his second act romp as island native Fighting Prawn is so memorable that his contributions to the show prove essential.  Adam Chanler-Berat does seems a little lost at sea as the Boy who becomes Peter Pan, although the script doesn’t do him any favors by keeping Peter passive and uninvolved for a good portion of the show.

And then there’s newly minted Tony-winner Christian Borle as Black Stache (re: Captain Hook).  I certainly can see why he won, and wouldn’t want to advocate taking the award and accompanying recognition from an actor who has been so consistently strong in such different kinds of roles over the years.  But at the performance I saw, Borle’s hamminess and scenery chewing repeatedly crossed the line from entertaining to distracting, throwing the focus of the piece and onstage energy completely out of whack.  It was almost impossible to concentrate on the actual story while he was gallivanting about the stage, and yet I’m not sure any actor would have been able to resist the urge to mug given the over-the-top applause that met any bit of comic business he even attempted.  At one point this was clearly a brilliant performance; unfortunately, it has now grown so broad that it hurts the show as much as it helps it.

There is much to admire about Peter and the Starcatcher, including the commitment of the actors and the unbridled imagination of the creative team.  But sometimes less is more, a truism the play seems to both understand and simultaneously ignore with its shunning of high-tech stagecraft for an overabundance of low-tech alternatives.  A great story gets lost among the frenzy of creativity on display, and after the platitudes given to the show by the rest of the theatrical community, I really was hoping for something better.  As long as expectations are kept in check, Peter and the Starcatcher makes for an fine evening of theatre, especially for those who are young or simply young at heart.

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are getting closer every minute, and if I want to finish these prediction articles before next weekend I don’t have time for clever intros!  As you read on, please remember my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win (a distinction that will be further discussed in the body of the article).

Moving right along, here come the supporting men.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nominees:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher; Michael Cumpsty, End of the Rainbow; Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman; Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

I’m not sure how Michael Cumpsty managed to pull himself out from under the massive shadow cast by Tracie Bennett in End of the Rainbow, but good on him for securing one of the five Best Featured Actor nominations.  I hope he is proud of his accomplishment, because a nomination is where his Tony journey ends.  I suspect the same is true for Tom Edden in One Man, Two Guvnors.  While the British import received a host of nominations, I just don’t think it has enough industry buzz to actually win any of the big awards, especially with such strong competition among this season’s plays.

Jeremy Shamos plays two miserable human beings in Clybourne Park, and the fact that he can make you understand where they’re coming from is a testament to both his performance and Bruce Norris’ writing.  But the lack of nominations for his costars seems to indicate Tony voters are more impressed with the work as a whole then the individual performances, even though all are stellar.  Shamos is a long shot for the Featured Actor trophy, but he does have a shot, which is more than I’ll say for both Cumpsty and Edden.

I think this race boils down to Christian Borle versus Andrew Garfield, which raises the eternal acting debate of comedy versus drama.  Which is more difficult, and therefore more worthy of praise when executed successfully?  Tony voters have shown a proven bias toward both serious drama and Hollywood stars making strong Broadway debuts.  In Death of a Salesman, Garfield holds his own against some established stage veterans while bringing new life and immediacy to a well-known Arthur Miller role.  This same trick won Scarlett Johansson a Tony two years back, and I think Garfield has a good chance of repeating her success. 

Borle, on the other hand, has been handed a gem of a role as Peter and the Starcatcher’s scenery chewing villain Black Stache.  After years of solid performances, Stache seems to be Borle’s breakout role, and his work on NBC’s Smash has raised his profile to the point where Tony voters can pretend that in picking him, they are honoring one of the Hollywood stars they love so much.  Borle is also the well-liked Starcatcher’s best shot at an actual win, and I think we’ll be hearing him gush about what a fantastic year he’s had when they call him up to the podium on Tony night.  Poor Mr. Garfield will just have to count his upcoming Amazing Spider-Man royalties in consolation.

Will Win:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher

Should Win:  Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman (not because Borle is bad, but because in this case I genuinely believe what Garfield accomplished was harder)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Nominees:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess; Michael Cerveris, Evita; David Alan Grier, Porgy and Bess; Michael McGarth, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

I was distinctly unimpressed with David Alan Grier’s performance when I saw Porgy and Bess back in January.  The actor didn’t seem to have a proper handle on his character, and the Sportin’ Life who sang “There’s a Boat That’s Leaving Soon” was vastly different than the one who proclaimed “It Ain’t Necessarily So.”  Revisiting the show last month, I’m happy to report that Grier has smoothed out a lot of inconsistencies in his characterization, but I still doubt most voters would consider the performance Tony-worthy. 

Michael Cerveris is probably the best thing about the current Evita revival, at least from an acting standpoint.  Unfortunately, the role of Juan Peron is even more underwritten than most Andrew Lloyd Webber roles, and even an actor Cerveris’ caliber can’t quite hide the fact that he’s working with pretty poor material.  Similarly, Michael McGarth deserves a better show than the misguided Nice Work.  Despite being the most reliably funny aspect of the show, I suspect a general indifference towards Nice Work will keep McGarth out of serious contention.

Phillip Boykin deserves to win this award, as his supremely menacing Crown is the sort of operatic presence Porgy and Bess demands even in this revised musical version.  Boykin is the only cast member who can hold his own vocally against Audra McDonald, and he breathes full life into what could easily become a cartoonishly evil character.  If you need any proof of how well Boykin does his job, just listen to the cheers that erupt from the audience when Norm Lewis’ Porgy finally triumphs over the brute.

But a part of me fears that Josh Young might just rain on Boykin’s parade.  Young is the only nominee in this category I haven’t personally seen, as he was out the night I saw Superstar.  In fact, he was out for a large portion of the preview period and the month immediately following.  While I know these actors are only human, missing so many shows so soon in the run does make me question someone’s Tony worthiness.  Theatre acting is about being able to turn in a stellar performance eight times a week; if you can’t keep yourself healthy, or worse yet blow your voice due to poor singing technique, then I don’t think you’re ready for theatre’s highest honor.  The fact that Young got nominated despite all his missed performances indicates he is either excellent receiving a large pity vote, or both.  I’m going to go with my heart and predict Boykin wins, but I would not be surprised if Young’s name is called on June 10^th instead.

Will & Should Win:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess

Catch up on my other Tony predictions below:

Featured Actress
Book & Score
Direction & Choreography

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 6

I'm sure the play is very good, but if that's what the house in Clybourne Park looks like, I'm not sure why anyone would want to move into it.

Magic/Bird

From the same team behind last year’s Lombardi, this play about the rivalry between NBA stars Magic Johnson and Larry Bird seems destined to be an also-ran in a season so packed with new works.  With less enthusiastic reviews than Lombardi (which wasn’t exactly embraced by critics to begin with) and lacking a critical darling like Judith Light to raise its profile, Magic/Bird simply won’t be among this year’s Tony nominees.

Peter and the Starcatcher

Peter and the Starcatcher, a prequel to Peter Pan, is the essence of an Off-Broadway show.  Relying more on a gifted ensemble and strong script than grand spectacle, this play is by all accounts quirky, inventive, and creatively staged in a way that emphasizes old-fashioned stagecraft over flashy technology.  Like last season’s Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson, Starcatcher was well reviewed Off-Broadway and similarly praised after its move uptown.  I also predict that it will be similarly ignored by the Tony voters, with the exception of one or two acting nominations.

This has less to do with quality and is more a reflection of Tony politics and preferences.  The voters tend to prefer their plays be high-minded adult dramas rather than family shows, and with so many of the former on the boards this season I don’t see Starcatcher cracking the more competitive categories like Best Play or Best Direction.  I do think Christian Borle’s scene-stealing turn as Black Stache makes him a definite contender for some Best Supporting Actor love, and in such a crowded season for new plays even one Tony nomination is a definite accomplishment.

One Man, Two Guvnors

Quite honestly, I am over the recent trend of West End transfers coming to Broadway and sweeping the Tony Awards.  While there is definitely quality in the execution of these productions, I have found many of them to be overrated, as if the New York theatrical community has so deeply absorbed the idea that the English are better actors than we are that they blindly endorse anything with a British pedigree.

But with so many strong American productions on Broadway this year, I think that trend will finally be broken.  While this farce it could find itself the token British Best Play nominee (there’s always at least one), it is by no means assured a place at the table, given the already mentioned Tony preference for drama over farce.  All that said, even the most jaded theatregoer would have trouble justifying the exclusion of leading man James Corden from the Best Actor category, thanks to his virtuosic performance in such a physically demanding role.

Clybourne Park

This play has Tony bait written all over it.  It is a contemporary drama (or dark comedy, depending on who you ask) that tackles a serious issue (race) with intelligence and a roundly praised acting ensemble, Clybourne Park also has the distinction of being last year’s winner of the Pulitzer Prize for Drama.  In a tough category, that makes the show as close to a guaranteed Best Play nominee as there is this year.

The quality of the acting ensemble will either net the show a boatload of nominations or cancel one another out.  Of all the Tony categories, the acting nominations tend to be the most merit based, but it still helps if a performer is one of the best parts of their respected show.  When everyone is amazing, it sometimes results in no one getting nominated due to vote splitting.  The Best Direction of a Play category is so ridiculously competitive that I’ve given up trying to predict it, although anyone who can coax this many stellar performances out of a group of actors is certainly in the running.

A Streetcar Named Desire

Working on this iconic Tennessee Williams play is both a blessing and a curse.  On the one hand, the script is widely recognized as one of the greatest American plays ever written, with such layered characterizations and universal themes that it’s a veritable gold mine for serious dramatic actors.  However, the play is so well known that most critics have very specific ideas on how it should be handled, and the iconic characters have been played by some of the greatest actors who have ever lived, which makes living up to audience expectations for the work almost impossible.

It seems that this production, like most Streetcar revivals, didn’t fully satisfy critics.  Its inclusion among any of the Tony categories is a complete toss-up.  The strength of the material may get it included among the Best Revival nominees, but the apparent mishandling of that material could also keep it out of contention.  The lead actors all have roles that Tony voters gravitate toward, but it doesn’t sound like any of them have earned the right to join the prestigious company of confirmed greats like Jessica Tandy or Marlon Brando.  And who knows how Tony voters will react to director Emily Mann’s vision of an ethnically diverse production, given how much Williams’ plays rely on their Old South milieu for their themes and characterizations.  Some may feel casting black actors revealed new shades of meaning in this oft-studied work, but others may decide that race has little bearing on the material and is in essence stunt casting (this latter sentiment kept the recent all-black Cat on a Hot Tin Roof from being more of an awards contender).

Ghost the Musical

In a normal season, the critically lambasted Ghost would be such a long shot at any kind of award nominations that discussing it would be a waste of time.  But this is not a normal season, and given the lack of a Book of Mormon-esque critical and commercial success, anything could happen.  I personally don’t think Ghost can secure a Best Musical slot, but then again, I am predicting the absolutely atrocious Spider-Man (which I named the Worst Show of 2011) will be nominated in that very category due to weak competition and Tony politics.  Since the chances of Ghost actually being worse than that train wreck are infinitesimally small, perhaps Ghost stands a chance.

Which also means it could wind up among the Best Book and Score nominees, although I again doubt this will actually happen.  Ghost has not accumulated the industry clout that Spider-Man somehow has, and seemingly lacks the latter show’s mass commercial appeal.  The bland lead actors are also out of luck, as looking pretty and singing well thankfully isn’t quite enough to earn someone a Tony nomination.  Depending on how well Da’Vine Joy Randolph plays up the Sassy Black Woman archetype, she may find herself among the Best Supporting Actress nominees, although her chances of winning are currently next to nothing.  And even though it broke down on the night most critics reviewed the show, Ghost’s set could prove dazzling enough from a technical standpoint to get nominated.

Just one more article to go and we’ll have officially touched on every Broadway production that has opened during this busy season.  Look for it to go live soon!

To read my previous Tony Watch articles, look here:

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5