Extremely Early 2017 Tony Predictions: Part II

As January turns to February, we are experiencing the proverbial calm before the storm. The spring Broadway season swings into gear next month, before the floodgates truly open in March and April. There are a mind boggling 22 productions slated to open between now and the Tony eligibility cutoff date, featuring a proliferation of both known and up and coming talent which makes my yearly tradition of assessing which fall performers are well-positioned for Tony recognition that much harder.

As history has repeatedly shown, the Tony Awards tend to favor currently running and recently premiered productions (hence the glut of scheduled spring openings). While a decent performance in a well-reviewed spring show can be enough to snag a nomination, actors must truly impress critics and Tony voters if they hope to be remembered for their work in a fall show. On the other hand, should the spring shows prove disappointing, a solid performance in a fondly remembered fall production suddenly looks very strong by comparison. It's all a carefully weighted guessing game, so read on of my extremely early - and subject to change - predictions for the major acting races. (You can catch up on my predictions about potential Tony-nominated productions here).

Best Actor in a Play

Denis Arndt and Mary-Louise Parker in Heisenberg.

While there are clear critical favorites among the fall musicals (Falsettos, Dear Evan Hansen, and Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812), the already opened plays are more evenly matched with no obvious frontrunners. For Best Actor in a Play, I think the three gentlemen to keep your eye on are Heisenberg's Denis Arndt, The Encounter's Simon McBurney, and The Present's Richard Roxburgh. Arndt's performance seems like the safest bet given the actor driven nature of Heisenberg, but a nod for McBurney would be a way to honor the entirety of his work on the well-reviewed The Encounter (he also wrote and directed the piece) which seems unlikely to be remembered elsewhere. And Roxburgh can't be ruled out for his excellent work in a play that has been marketed on Cate Blanchett's appeal but ultimately centers around Roxburgh's rakish intellectual.

And then there's John Slattery, whose performance in The Front Page is a bit of a wildcard. Slattery is the only member of the starry ensemble comedy deemed eligible in the Lead Actor category, and the play was certainly well liked, ending up on several Best of 2016 lists. But Slattery was essentially overshadowed in the press by his costar Nathan Lane, despite Lane not making his first appearance until almost an hour into the show (Lane seems like an almost guaranteed Featured Actor nominee). I would expect two of these four men to make the cut, but Slattery feels like the longest shot at the moment.

Best Actor in a Musical

Ben Platt as the title character in Dear Evan Hansen.

There is a clear frontrunner in this category, not just for a nomination but for the eventual trophy. Ben Platt's turn as the title character in Dear Evan Hansen has been the talk of the fall season, a hugely admired performance anchoring a hugely admired show. The buzz surrounding him feels very similar to the buzz which greeted Cynthia Erivo upon her Broadway debut last season, and that worked out very well for the Color Purple star. There's definitely competition on the horizon - Jake Gyllenhaal in Sunday in the Park with George and Andy Karl in Groundhog Day immediately spring to mind, and as much as I'm not looking forward to his performance in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory one cannot deny the Tony's love of Christian Borle - but as of this moment, the Best Actor statue is Platt's to lose.

A case can definitely be made for Josh Groban to work his way into this category, with the recording star doing a very admirable job of embodying the withdrawn Pierre in The Great Comet. Holiday Inn's Bryce Pinkham had more to do in his show than Groban, and one should never underestimate how difficult it is to anchor one of those old-fashioned song and dance spectacles, but Pinkham's inclusion here feels like a long shot. And there's always the possibility Tony voters will decide they like Christian Borle's more measured work in Falsettos than his presumed scenery chewing in Charlie and nominated the former performance instead. Groban still feels like the most likely to be in consideration though, after the surefire Platt.

Best Actress in a Play

Oscar-winner Cate Blanchett and Richard Roxburgh in The Present.

Of the fall actresses, the one I'd most expect to see remembered with a Tony nomination is Mary-Louise Parker for Heisenberg. The Tony-winning actress received across the board raves for her complex, nuanced performance in the two character drama, and there aren't enough female-driven plays on the horizon to put her nomination in jeopardy (unless the shows without name stars over deliver on the acting front). I also think the committee will reward Cate Blanchett's long awaited Broadway debut with a Tony nomination as a way to encourage the actress to come back sooner rather than later, hopefully in a show that makes better use of her talent than the occasionally obtuse The Present. That said, even though she has been deemed a lead you could convincingly argue that Blanchett's character is really a supporting one, which could hurt her chances. An unexpectedly weak showing from the spring actresses could also open up a slot for Janet McTeer's scheming Marquis de Merteuil in Les Liaisons Dangereuses, although it is a long shot.

Best Actress in a Musical

Denee Benton in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812.

I've saved this category for last because it is by far the most competitive; in fact, this is shaping up to be a Tony race for the record books. Among the major names starring in spring musicals: Patti LuPone and Christine Ebersole in War Paint; Bette Midler in arguably the most anticipated musical of the season, Hello, Dolly!; Phillipa Soo in the musical adaptation of Amelie; and Annaleigh Ashford in Sunday in the Park with George. (Glenn Close is not eligible for her starring role in Sunset Boulevard, having previously won the Tony for the same role in 1995.) There's also two-time nominee Laura Osnes in the new musical Bandstand, newcomer Eva Noblezada in Miss Saigon (the role which made Lea Salonga a star), and rumblings of a very strong performance from Jenn Colella in the new musical Come From Away (assuming she is deemed a lead actress and not supporting).

In short, there's a lot of competition out there, and if it is as strong as everyone assumes that doesn't bode well for the fall performers. Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812's Denee Benton seems the most likely to break into the race, assuming support for the boundary pushing musical remains as strong as when it initially premiered. Benton is also one of the only women currently eligible for this award; Stephanie J Block's showstopping performance in Falsettos has been deemed a supporting turn, as has Rachel Bay Jones' heartbreaking work in Dear Evan Hansen (I expect both to be nominated for Best Featured Actress). Which leaves Benton as the sole woman standing, and even her position is precarious barring a category expansion.


And those are my current predictions for the 2017 Tony Award nominees! This is obviously all subject to change based on the spring season, and I will certainly be revisiting this topic prior to the official nominations being announced on May 2nd. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments!

The Great Comet Arrives

Review: Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

Josh Groban (r) and the company of Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

After a sensational run Off-Broadway in 2013, Dave Malloy's wildly inventive, boundary pushing musical Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812 arrives on Broadway with a production which does its best to recreate the magic of that original, supper club set run. Scenic designer Mimi Lien has gone all out in reconfiguring the spacious Imperial Theatre into something approximating the joy of her fully immersive original design, and director Rachel Chavkin uses every ounce of her seemingly boundless talent to create a fluid staging the utilizes every possible inch of the stage and the audience. And while much of the show is undeniably brilliant, there are moments where it appears Chavkin and company have become so concerned with amping the show up for Broadway they sometimes undercut the effectiveness of their storytelling.

The show adapts a mere sliver of Leo Tolstoy's epic novel War and Peace, focusing on the attempted seduction of the young, beautiful Natasha by the rakish Anatole. Natasha's betrothed is off fighting in the war, so she moves to Moscow with her godmother Marya and cousin Sonya. The gorgeous newcomer soon becomes the toast of Moscow society, eventually catching the eye of the womanizing (and married) Anatole. And what about Pierre? The nobleman, an old friend of Natasha's fiance and Anatole's brother-in-law, serves as the evening's narrator, watching his contemporaries' passions while wistfully longing to experience a similar sort of fervor.

As cheekily acknowledged in the show's "Prologue," the details of the plot can be a bit complicated to the uninitiated, but Malloy's excellent writing and Chavkin's direction do such a good job of focusing your attention that the synopsis in the program proves largely unnecessary. Through his eclectic, complex, and constantly surprising score, Malloy ensures that the mood and emotions of the story are always crystal clear even when the details of the narrative get convoluted. The score borrows from a host of influences, from traditional Russian folk songs to electronica to opera, all interwoven so seamlessly that none of them feel out of place. Malloy has made some additions to the score since the show's Off-Broadway premiere, which has pushed its runtime *just* past what it really wants to be. Calling the show bloated or self-indulgent would be too harsh, but a couple of sequences do overstay their welcome (especially the extended "Balaga" song and dance in the second act).

The cast remains largely the same as the Off-Broadway production, barring two notable exception. With original lead Phillipa Soo gone on to post-Hamilton fame, the role of Natasha is now played with winsome charm by Denee Benton. Benton expertly portrays Natasha' girlish enthusiasm and wonder as she becomes caught up in the excitement of the big city, and her handling of the character's big solo "No One Else" is exquisite. She navigates the deceptively difficult vocal demands of the role with aplomb, and despite a tendency to play the comedy a bit broad she grounds the show with her emotional honesty.

The other major new cast member, and arguably the reason this boundary pushing show was able to secure a Broadway berth at all, is multi-platinum recording star Josh Groban as Pierre. Gamely wearing a fat suit and sporting quite an impressive beard, Groban is admirably committed to telling the show's story without hijacking the narrative to make everything about him. He makes quite the accomplished Broadway debut, and if his Pierre could stand to be a tad more world-weary it is hardly detrimental to the show. Malloy has written a new song specifically tailored to show off Groban's instantly recognizable voice, which is thrillingly sung and definitely increases Pierre's presence in the show's first act.

The rest of the cast does fine work, although many of them have adopted the same tendency towards overplaying that Benton has. It's never enough to really hurt the show, and all of them are smart enough to trust in the power of stillness when it really matters, but there's a tad too much indicating as opposed to embodying emotion. The worst offender is Lucas Steele as Anatole, who becomes such a cartoonishly pompous preener it can be hard to understand why Natasha is so drawn to him. On the flip side, Brittain Ashford has only improved since originating the role of Sonya, with her quietly devastating "Sonya Alone" one of the emotional highlights of the evening. Amber Gray is a welcome fiery presence as Anatole's sister Helene, and Grace McLean's Marya is at turns both funny and frightening. McLean is particularly effective during the one-two punch of "In My House" and "A Call to Pierre," which also marks one of Malloy and Chavkin's most sustained sequences of brilliance.

Design-wise, the show is a sumptuous feast for the senses. In addition to Lien's set of gorgeous red velvet walls with gold accents, Bradley King's absolutely phenomenal lighting design is essential to the show's visual impact. King lights both the stage and the audience with laser-like precision, and all of the production's most striking images owe a huge debt to his work. Nicholas Pope's immersive sound design captures of the feeling of being in the middle of the action even for those not lucky/wealthy enough to be seated onstage, adding to the sonic landscape created by Malloy's music and orchestrations. Paloma Young's costumes for the leads are also gorgeous, although her ensemble outfits tend towards being overly busy.

Lest there be any confusion, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812 is an excellent work of theatre, and exactly the kind of challenging, boundary pushing production Broadway needs more of. The critiques above are nitpicks that only stand out because the rest of the show is so well done, and will likely go unnoticed by those experiencing the show for the first time. But those who saw and loved the Off-Broadway incarnation may be a tad disappointed that the Broadway mounting doesn't quite equal the previous production's artistic success, even though this richly detailed mounting still has plenty to offer.