2015 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

Broadway's biggest night is just over two weeks away, and the entire industry is wondering who will walk away from the 2015 Tony Awards a winner. And since rampant awards speculation is one of my favorite pastimes, I am continuing my survey of the productions and people I think are most likely to win big on June 7th. Now that I've predicted some of the behind the scenes winners, it's time to move on to what I lovingly call the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production awards seem to be the ones that carry the most industry clout, as well as provoking the most intense speculation among the theatrical community, and I would argue they are the ones the general public is most interested in when they tune in to the annual Tony telecast.

Of course, who will win and who is most deserving are not always one and the same, which can make any Tony predictions doubly difficult. So should I feel someone besides the most deserving person will be giving an acceptance speech that Sunday, I will make sure to say so in my analysis. Now without further ado, here are my thoughts on two of the most wide open races in this year's awards: the Featured Actor categories.

Warning: Occasional snark and wild speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathaniel Parker as the volatile Henry VIII in British import Wolf Hall.

Nominees: Matthew Beard, Skylight; K. Todd Freeman, Airline Highway; Richard McCabe, The Audience; Alessandro Nivola, The Elephant Man; Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Micah Stock, It's Only a Play

I'll admit, I was caught completely by surprise when they announced this category's nominees; the only person who was even on my radar was Wolf Hall's Nathaniel Parker. I also find it interesting that of all the acting categories, this was the only one where the votes were close enough to prompt an expansion to six nominees, further indicating what a tight race we have on our hands.

Despite being one of three central figures in the critically acclaimed Elephant Man revival, I think Alessandro Nivola is at a major disadvantage as the only nominee whose show isn't currently running. I also don't have a very good feeling about K. Todd Freeman, as no one seems to be talking about Airline Highway and the show's box office is so paltry that Manhattan Theatre Club has shortened the play's run (a rare move for a non-profit). And since any discussion of The Audience generally begins and ends with how brilliant Helen Mirren is, I don't find Richard McCabe to be particularly competitive in this category.

The three most likely winners are the aforementioned Parker, Skylight's Matthew Beard, and It's Only a Play's Micah Stock. I personally don't see what is Tony worthy about Stock's performance, as the actor's biggest laughs come from the absurd celebrity coats he brings onstage rather than anything the young actor actually says or does. And not to diminish Beard's work, but Skylight is often described as a two-hander between the roundly praised Bill Nighy and Carey Mulligan, which leads me to believe the actor's role is relatively modest and somewhat inconsequential to the plot. Which makes Parker the most likely winner in my eyes, given his larger than life character's importance to Wolf Hall's plot and the fact that Tony voters and the industry in general are clearly enamored with the British double bill.

Will Win: Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall Parts I & II
Should Win: Haven't seen enough nominees to know

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Andy Karl flexes his comic muscles in Roundabout Theatre's On the Twentieth Century.

Nominees: Christian Borle, Something Rotten!; Any Karl, On the Twentieth Century; Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!; Brandon Uranowitz, An American in Paris; Max von Essen, An American in Paris

Multiple nominees from the same show in the same category has been a recurring theme in recent years (see: the two Book of Mormon leads, the multiple women from A Raisin in the Sun last year). This always raises the question of if they will split votes, although the phenomenon has produced enough actual winners (Kinky Boots' Billy Porter, Raisin's Sophie Okonedo) that it is obviously not an insurmountable obstacle.

Of the two Something Rotten! nominees, I actually think Brad Oscar has the edge over his Tony-winning costar Christian Borle. Oscar is a hardworking character actor who has been a part of the community for years, headlines Rotten's biggest and best production number, and gets most of the show's best lines ("A show about cats???"). Borle is certainly a beloved performer, reusing many of the same tricks that led to his previous win for Peter and the Starcatcher, but I suspect voters may choose to spread the love this year. Both men from An American in Paris are helped by being in a heavily nominated show - the fact that Paris is tied for the most nominations virtually guarantees every voter will see it - but at the same time the performances aren't necessarily the first thing people mention when discussing the new Gershwin musical.

And then there's Andy Karl, the wildcard who could spoil everyone's fun. Like several of the nominees in this category, Karl is a longtime staple of the Broadway community who is very well liked. After earning critical acclaim and a Tony nomination for playing the title character in the deadly serious Rocky, he has gone to the opposite end of the spectrum with his over the top performance as Kristin Chenoweth's musclebound boy toy in On the Twentieth Century. Karl's comic timing is impeccable and his chemistry with Chenoweth palpable (they are easily the season's funniest pair), and as much as I would love to see Oscar recognized I think this may well be Karl's year.

Will Win: Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
Should Win: Probably Karl, but I am partial to Something Rotten's Brad Oscar


Check back every Monday and Friday between now and the Tony telecast to see the rest of my predictions, and don't forget to check out the rest of my awards coverage if you haven't already!

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Director and Choreography

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part IV (Featured Actor/Actress)

I've already gone into great detail about the productions and leading actors/actresses I expect to wake up to good news on Tuesday morning.  (Sidenote: why on earth are Tony nominations announced so early when the people they're honoring typically don't go into work until 6 pm or later?)  Now I'm going to attempt the most difficult predictions of all:  the Featured Actor and Actress nominees.

Why are these categories so hard to predict?  Because whereas the production and lead actor categories have a relatively limited pool of eligible nominees, almost everyone who sets foot on a Broadway stage is could conceivably be nominated in the Featured categories, which makes narrowing things down much more difficult.  Historically, this is also the area with the biggest number of "surprise" nominations for people who weren't on anyone's radar.  (Did you know who Elizabeth A. Davis was before the 2012 Tony nominations?  Do you know who she is now???)  But using my time honored combination of first hand experience, industry buzz, and gut feeling, I'm making predictions anyway, including at least one Wildcard per category that could potentially unseat one of my official guesses.

Best Featured Actress (Play)

Oscar-nominee Sophie Okonedo will probably be able to add "Tony nominee" to her resume after tomorrow's nominations are announced.

The sure-bet here is Celia Keenan-Bolger for her Laura in last fall's acclaimed The Glass Menagerie.  She will certainly be joined by at least one of the ladies from A Raisin in the Sun, although at this point deciding between Sophie Okonedo and Anika Noni Rose feels arbitrary.  Okonedo got slightly more rapturous reviews, although she is also playing the same role that won Audra McDonald the Tony only ten years ago, which is a mighty powerful memory to overcome.  Rose is a previous Tony winner and is playing the one female role which wasn't honored with an award the last time around, so recognizing her would allow Tony voters to feel less like they're repeating themselves.  There's also the very real possibility the committee will double down and nominate both women, which is what my gut is telling me at this moment.

After that, things get harder to predict.  Andrea Martin just won the Tony last year, but that hasn't mattered much to voters recently (see Judith Light's back-to-back wins), and the committee tends to be impressed by actors tackling multiple roles like Martin does in Act One.  Although I have not personally seen or even heard much buzz about Casa Valentina, Mare Winningham recently scored herself an Outer Critics Circle nomination for her work in that Harvey Fierstein play, which makes her a contender here as well.  And there is the dim but still possible chance that Jayne Houdyshell is remembered for her role as the Nurse in the ill-fated Romeo & Juliet revival from last fall; she did manage to beat out all of her Follies costars a couple of years ago, although that show was much better liked than Romeo.

Nominees:
Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
Andrea Martin, Act One
Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina

Wildcard:
Jayn Houdyshell, Romeo & Juliet

Beat Featured Actor (Play)

Honestly, any of the men from last fall's Twelfth Night are worthy of a Tony nominations, although it is Mark Rylance (left) and Paul Chahidi (second from left) who have the greatest chance of actually being recognized.

Have they gone ahead and engraved this award with Mark Rylance's name yet?  They might as well, because his buzzed about Olivia in Twelfth Night was such a master class in acting I cannot imagine anyone else wresting this category away from him.  His nomination is a sure thing, and I actually have a very good feeling about his co-star Paul Chahidi being recognized as well for his outstanding Maria.  Chahidi took a role that typically feels more like a narrative device and turned it into a fully fledged, entirely winsome character, and I believe he will be rewarded for it.  My gut is also telling me that Brian J. Smith will complete The Glass Menagerie's hat trick of garnering nominations for the entire cast in all four acting categories.

I'm at a loss as to who else will be competing in this category; there is no shortage of eligible nominees thanks to the abundance of male-dominated plays this season.  Billy Crudup inexplicably scored a Tony nomination for the 2011 revival of Tom Stoppard's Arcadia despite being atrocious in the role; could a similar outcome greet his performance in Waiting for Godot?  Bobby Steggert is giving one of his most naturalistic performances yet in Mothers and Sons and isn't entirely out of the running, although that show is primarily viewed as a Tyne Daly vehicle.  Going back to the Shakespeare plays, Stephen Fry was roundly praised for his Malvolio in Twelfth Night, although having three nominees from the same show seems like a bit much.  All the Way's John McMartin landed among the Outer Critics' list of Best Featured Actors, and Casa Valentina's Reed Birney managed a similar feat with the Drama Desk awards, so both of those actors should be considered in the running as well.

Nominees:
Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
Bobby Steggert, Mothers and Sons

Wildcard:
Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night

Best Featured Actress (Musical)

I had a snappy caption for this photo of Marin Mazzie as Helen Sinclair, but the Bullets Over Broadway star very specifically instructed me not to speak.

Being ruled a featured actress instead of a lead is the best thing that could have happened to Marin Mazzie this year, as moving her into this less competitive category virtually guarantees a nomination for her boozy diva in Bullets Over Broadway.  And it would take quite an unexpected turn of events to keep Linda Emond out of the running for her Fraulein Schneider in Cabaret (who really deserved to win for her stellar performance in Death of a Salesman, so the committee kind of owes her).  There's also a guaranteed nomination in the cards for one of A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's ladies, even though in my ideal world both Lisa O'Hare and Lauren Worsham would be recognized for their outstanding work.  If only one can make the cut, my money is on O'Hare, whose upwardly mobile Sibella Hallward is the more interesting of the two characters since she subverts the typical ingénue troupes. 

Conventional wisdom holds that at least one more female from Bullets Over Broadway will get nominated, although whether it ends up being rising star Betsy Wolfe or Helene York's ditzy blonde is a toss up.  York is more of an unknown, and considering how much Tony voters love a good Cinderella story, York may benefit from their desire to try and crown a new star.  I also think Adriane Lenox has a strong chance at a nomination for her work in After Midnight, a prospect helped by the fact that she is the highest profile stable element of the show (she's been with the production since the beginning, while the Guest Star slot gets a new performer every month or two).  And finally, Anika Larson has scored both a Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nomination for her work in Beautiful, which makes her a major contender for Tony recognition as well.

Nominees:
Linda Edmond, Cabaret
Anika Larson, Beautiful
Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
Lisa O'Hare, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Wildcards:
Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
Helene York, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Featured Actor (Musical)

"Friend Like Me" is the showstopper of the season, and James Monroe Iglehart is a large reason why it works as well as it does.  If that doesn't merit a Tony nomination, I don't know what does.

Like Best Featured Actor in a Play, there is a clear frontrunner for this award right now, and his name is James Monroe Inglehart.  His wisecracking Genie has made him the breakout star of Aladdin, with even the show's detractors admitting that Inglehart is the real deal.  His nomination is assured, and the only real question is who will be joining him.  Danny Burnstein seems like a sure thing for his performance as Herr Schultz in Cabaret; the fact that this Broadway stalwart has not been rewarded with the industry's highest honor is a fact that needs to change sooner rather than later (I will forever maintain that he was ROBBED of the 2012 Best Actor Tony for his revelatory performance in Follies).  And Nick Cordero has been nominated for every acting award so far this season, so I'd consider the Bullets Over Broadway player another lock for a nomination.

As for the remaining two slots, it's really anyone's guess, as there has been no consistency among the nominees in the other awards-given bodies (which tend to lump Broadway and Off-Broadway performances together, meaning less Broadway talent makes the cut).  Could Jarrod Spector benefit from the theatrical community's increasingly warm feelings towards Beautiful?  Will Tony nominators remember Bobby Steggert's performance in Big Fish?  Will the good looking, big voiced Joshua Henry manage to get his second career Tony nod for his supporting work in Violet?  At this point a well-liked performer like If/Then's Anthony Rapp has a decent shot at nabbing a nomination despite being overshadowed by several of his costars in a show that the critics didn't much care for.  There is even the off chance that one of the men from Les Miserables makes the cut, although considering most of those performers are more singers than actors that could raise a few eyebrows.

Nominees:
Danny Burnstein, Cabaret
Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
Joshua Henry, Violet
James Monroe Inglehart, Aladdin
Jarrod Spector, Beautiful

Wildcard:
Bobby Steggert, Big Fish


Well, that caps off my 2014 Tony Awards predictions!  We'll find out how right (or wrong) I was when the official nominations are announced tomorrow morning, so check back in the next couple of days to see how I did.  Until then, you can read the rest of my Tony Awards coverage here:

2014 Tony Predictions Part I (Production)
2014 Tony Predictions Part II (Best Actress)
2014 Tony Predictions Part III (Best Actor)

Insanely Early 2014 Tony Predictions: Part III

I cannot speak for the rest of the country, but New York remains in the midst of a seemingly unending winter (and that damn groundhog thinks we have six more weeks of it left).  Broadway is deep in its winter doldrums too, with most of the splashy spring shows still in rehearsals before previews begin.  Which means that now is the perfect time to start handicapping this fall's productions for the upcoming Tony Awards!  You may think it's early, and it is, but what else are we going to talk about?  I've already given my thoughts on the productions and lead performances I consider well-positioned to score an eventual Tony nod, so now it's time to turn my same skills of unsubstantiated guesswork toward the featured performances.

For those who didn't read my last two posts, the rules for getting mentioned here are simple: the actor/actress must have made a major impression on the New York theatrical community.  As we have a whole slew of shows set to open during the spring, the only way any fall performance will be able to break into the crowded Featured Actor/Actress categories is via a universally praised turned.  As such, there are very few sure things in these categories, but that's not going to stop me from trying to pick the most likely nominees.

WARNING:  Occasional snark and wild speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Of all Jefferson Mays' deliriously daffy characters in Gentleman's Guide, the racially insensitive Lady Hyacinth is easily my favorite.

A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's Jefferson Mays is guaranteed one of the five slots in this category for his bravura turn as all eight members of the doomed D'Ysquith clan.  I'm a little surprised he wasn't upgraded to Lead Actor status, although I agree this category is where his roles, however showy, belong.  More confounding is the Tony committee's decision to consider his extremely talented costar Bryce Pinkham eligible in the same category despite the fact that Pinkham's upwardly mobile Monty Navarro forms the lynchpin of the entire evening.  I'm really hoping that Pinkham, who I found to be a sensational straight man and one of the purest tenors currently singing on Broadway, also scores a nomination for his work, but if the spring musicals are particularly strong he could find himself shut out by the flashier Mays.  And depending on how many fans Big Fish has on the Tony nominating committee, Bobby Steggert may find himself among the nominees as well.  Even that show's biggest detractors generally considered it to be well-acted, although I personally found Steggert to be the least memorable of the show's main trio.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Game, set, and match, gentleman.  Mark Rylance's Olivia in Twelfth Night is quite possibly the performance of the season, and it's only February.

They might as well just go ahead and engrave this Tony with Mark Rylance's name, because he is going to win it.  Rylance's Olivia in the all-male Twelfth Night is the buzziest performance of the season thus far, and rightfully so.  He took the role in unexpectedly hilarious directions, downplaying the character's normal refinement and making her an overgrown child prone to hysterical tantrums.  Not only was this a new interpretation, but one that was fully supported by the text and went a long way towards making this the funniest production of Twelfth Night I have ever seen.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see any of Rylance's costars nominated in this category (I was particularly impressed by Paul Chahidi's Maria), but Rylance is the man to beat.  Among the fall's other offerings, I think The Glass Menagerie's Brian J. Smith stands as good a shot as any Gentleman Caller ever has of being recognized, and I think that much ballyhooed production is well positioned to perform the hat trick of getting a nomination in each of the four acting categories (although Smith is probably most in danger of being shut out).

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

"Long suffering wife" is a sure road to awards contention, and Kate Baldwin played it with unusual depth and sincerity.  (Bonus: her slow-motion dance during "Time Stops" was one of the most beautifully simply staging moments of the season.)

I'm rooting for Big Fish's Kate Baldwin to get some recognition for her sterling work in that production, her first Broadway outing since her star-making turn in Finian's Rainbow four years ago.  I think the fact that she was deemed a Featured Actress rather than a Lead actual works in her favor, as it keeps her out of the hotly contested Best Actress race.  I also think there is a good chance one of the lovely ladies from Gentleman's Guide joins her on the red carpet, although whether that is Lisa O'Hare or Lauren Worsham remains a toss-up at this point.  In fact, I would *love* it if both women wound up nominated, as that show and particularly it's second act wouldn't be nearly as good without them.  If I had to pick one, I would go with O'Hare, as her Sibella is a little more complex and fun that Worsham's doe-eyed and superbly sung Phoebe.  But Worsham is one of the most winsome and interesting ingénues of the past several seasons, which only reinforces my wish for both of them to score nominations.

Best Featured Actress in a Play



Celia Keenan-Bolger rose to fame in a couple of high profile musical roles, but it's her critically acclaimed turn as Laura in The Glass Menagerie that may finally bring this talented actress Tony gold.

As I've stated before, I expect this latest revival for The Glass Menagerie to do very well come Tony time despite my personal dislike of it.  I think Celia Keenan-Bolger is a sure thing for a nomination, and depending on how the spring season goes the twice-nominated actress may actually win her first award.  In fact, as of right now, she's the only actress I think is in serious contention for this award, as the fall plays were particularly male-heavy, what with the two all-male Shakespeares and the Pinter/Beckett rep plays starring four male actors each.


And that concludes my semi-annual Tony rant.  There are a lot of shows opening in the next few months, and I hope to see a good number of them so that I can provide you all with reviews.  Look for more Tony talk from me closer to the announcement of the nominees on April 29th, after which point I will likely be unable to talk about anything else until the awards are handed out on June 8th.

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are only two weeks away, and I have a lot more predictions to make.  So without further ado, here are my picks for who will win the Best Featured Actor statuettes (along with my personal opinions as to who actually deserves them).

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Tony Shalhoub (right) in Lincoln Center Theatre's revival of Clifford Odets' Golden Boy

Nominees:  Danny Burnstein, Golden Boy; Richard Kind, The Big Knife; Billy Magnussen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Tony Shalhoub, Golden Boy; Courtney B. Vance, Lucky Guy

These predictions are brought to you by 100% Guesswork, as I have not seen any of the nominated performances.  That said I’m going to rule out Vanya and Sonia’s Billy Magnussen, given the Tonys’ habit of overlooking entirely comedic performances.  Magnussen’s Spike is reportedly dumb as a brick, and while actors can appreciate just how difficult playing a compelling idiot is, the rest of the Tony voters will likely underestimate the amount of work going into his performance when compared to the more overtly dramatic nature of his competitors. 

After years of work in regional productions and as a replacement in high profile Broadway comedies, Richard Kind is being recognized for his more serious work in The Big Knife, but given that he is the show’s sole nominee I doubt it culminates in an actual win.  And while the Tony committee is certainly high on Nora Ephron’s final play, the fact that Lucky Guy is raking in the dough is unlikely to propel Courtney B. Vance to the Tony podium.  The amount of praise directed at Lucky Guy has certainly dimmed in the two months since its opening, and while the play is well-liked I think the majority of voters no longer feel it is award-worthy.

That leaves us with a two way race between the rapturously reviewed Golden Boy’s Danny Burnstein and Tony Shalhoub.  Burnstein is an incredible actor who commands a lot of admiration among his peers, but despite three prior nominations the dependable character actor has thus far failed to actually win a Tony.  You could argue the committee owes him one after overlooking his revelatory work as Buddy in last season’s Follies, but that injustice is actually what leads me to bet on Shalhoub taking home the big prize.  If Burnstein couldn’t win for Follies, the chances of him beating out a three-time Emmy winner are slim, and by all accounts Shalhoub so completely disappeared into his role as the protagonist’s father that begrudging him a win seems petty.

Should Win:  Danny Burnstein, Golden Boy (because at this point, he’s earned it)

Will Win:  Tony Shalhoub, Golden Boy

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Terrance Mann and his real-life wife, Charlotte d'Amboise, hamming it up as the conniving parents of Pippin's title character.

Nominees:  Charl Brown, Motown the Musical; Keith Carradine, Hands on a Hardbody; Will Chase, The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Gabriel Ebert, Matilda the Musical; Terrance Mann, Pippin

I’m a little more familiar with the nominated work in this category, but that doesn’t necessarily make predicting things any easier.  Since Motown the Musical couldn’t leverage its massive box office into a Best Musical nomination despite the Tonys’ well-document favoritism of commercially viable shows, I don’t think Charl Brown has much of a chance.  This is not to imply Brown is bad; it’s merely a reflection of the fact that if you’re in a show people don’t like, winning awards is an uphill battle no matter how good the work.  Both Keith Carradine and Will Chase did fine work in their respective shows, but neither performance screamed Tony-worthy, and the fact that both productions are now closed is a major obstacle to their winning.

I believe the frontrunners for this prize are Gabriel Ebert and Terrance Mann, who have the advantage of appearing in two of the most critically lauded musicals of the season.  While I have not personally seen Ebert’s work in Matilda (the damn show is sold out for the foreseeable future), I’m sure the role of Matilda’s father provides the actor with plenty of scenery-chewing opportunities.  But as I mentioned with Lauren Ward in my Featured Actress predictions, for whatever reason the cast of Matilda seldom gets mentioned as a driving factor behind the show’s success, which may put Ebert at a disadvantage.  Terrance Mann is doing pitch-perfect work in Pippin, managing to stand out among the enormous amount of spectacle and talent onstage at the Music Box Theatre.  In addition, Mann’s long and respected career on Broadway has yet to net the veteran actor a Tony Award, something which may sway undecided voters in Mann’s favor.  And Pippin itself has been doing quite well in the various theatrical award races, which can only increase Mann’s chances; in fact, I think it pushes him over the top.

Will and Should Win:  Terrance Mann, Pippin

There are only eight of the Big 12 categories left to predict (Best Actor/Actress and the production awards), so check back soon for more insight into how I expect those races to shape up.  Until then, you can catch up on all of my previous predictions by clicking the links below:

Best Featured Actress

Best Book and Score

Best Choreography and Direction

2013 Tony Nominations React

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are getting closer every minute, and if I want to finish these prediction articles before next weekend I don’t have time for clever intros!  As you read on, please remember my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win (a distinction that will be further discussed in the body of the article).

Moving right along, here come the supporting men.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nominees:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher; Michael Cumpsty, End of the Rainbow; Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman; Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

I’m not sure how Michael Cumpsty managed to pull himself out from under the massive shadow cast by Tracie Bennett in End of the Rainbow, but good on him for securing one of the five Best Featured Actor nominations.  I hope he is proud of his accomplishment, because a nomination is where his Tony journey ends.  I suspect the same is true for Tom Edden in One Man, Two Guvnors.  While the British import received a host of nominations, I just don’t think it has enough industry buzz to actually win any of the big awards, especially with such strong competition among this season’s plays.

Jeremy Shamos plays two miserable human beings in Clybourne Park, and the fact that he can make you understand where they’re coming from is a testament to both his performance and Bruce Norris’ writing.  But the lack of nominations for his costars seems to indicate Tony voters are more impressed with the work as a whole then the individual performances, even though all are stellar.  Shamos is a long shot for the Featured Actor trophy, but he does have a shot, which is more than I’ll say for both Cumpsty and Edden.

I think this race boils down to Christian Borle versus Andrew Garfield, which raises the eternal acting debate of comedy versus drama.  Which is more difficult, and therefore more worthy of praise when executed successfully?  Tony voters have shown a proven bias toward both serious drama and Hollywood stars making strong Broadway debuts.  In Death of a Salesman, Garfield holds his own against some established stage veterans while bringing new life and immediacy to a well-known Arthur Miller role.  This same trick won Scarlett Johansson a Tony two years back, and I think Garfield has a good chance of repeating her success. 

Borle, on the other hand, has been handed a gem of a role as Peter and the Starcatcher’s scenery chewing villain Black Stache.  After years of solid performances, Stache seems to be Borle’s breakout role, and his work on NBC’s Smash has raised his profile to the point where Tony voters can pretend that in picking him, they are honoring one of the Hollywood stars they love so much.  Borle is also the well-liked Starcatcher’s best shot at an actual win, and I think we’ll be hearing him gush about what a fantastic year he’s had when they call him up to the podium on Tony night.  Poor Mr. Garfield will just have to count his upcoming Amazing Spider-Man royalties in consolation.

Will Win:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher

Should Win:  Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman (not because Borle is bad, but because in this case I genuinely believe what Garfield accomplished was harder)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Nominees:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess; Michael Cerveris, Evita; David Alan Grier, Porgy and Bess; Michael McGarth, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

I was distinctly unimpressed with David Alan Grier’s performance when I saw Porgy and Bess back in January.  The actor didn’t seem to have a proper handle on his character, and the Sportin’ Life who sang “There’s a Boat That’s Leaving Soon” was vastly different than the one who proclaimed “It Ain’t Necessarily So.”  Revisiting the show last month, I’m happy to report that Grier has smoothed out a lot of inconsistencies in his characterization, but I still doubt most voters would consider the performance Tony-worthy. 

Michael Cerveris is probably the best thing about the current Evita revival, at least from an acting standpoint.  Unfortunately, the role of Juan Peron is even more underwritten than most Andrew Lloyd Webber roles, and even an actor Cerveris’ caliber can’t quite hide the fact that he’s working with pretty poor material.  Similarly, Michael McGarth deserves a better show than the misguided Nice Work.  Despite being the most reliably funny aspect of the show, I suspect a general indifference towards Nice Work will keep McGarth out of serious contention.

Phillip Boykin deserves to win this award, as his supremely menacing Crown is the sort of operatic presence Porgy and Bess demands even in this revised musical version.  Boykin is the only cast member who can hold his own vocally against Audra McDonald, and he breathes full life into what could easily become a cartoonishly evil character.  If you need any proof of how well Boykin does his job, just listen to the cheers that erupt from the audience when Norm Lewis’ Porgy finally triumphs over the brute.

But a part of me fears that Josh Young might just rain on Boykin’s parade.  Young is the only nominee in this category I haven’t personally seen, as he was out the night I saw Superstar.  In fact, he was out for a large portion of the preview period and the month immediately following.  While I know these actors are only human, missing so many shows so soon in the run does make me question someone’s Tony worthiness.  Theatre acting is about being able to turn in a stellar performance eight times a week; if you can’t keep yourself healthy, or worse yet blow your voice due to poor singing technique, then I don’t think you’re ready for theatre’s highest honor.  The fact that Young got nominated despite all his missed performances indicates he is either excellent receiving a large pity vote, or both.  I’m going to go with my heart and predict Boykin wins, but I would not be surprised if Young’s name is called on June 10^th instead.

Will & Should Win:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess

Catch up on my other Tony predictions below:

Featured Actress
Book & Score
Direction & Choreography