2014 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

The Tony Awards are drawing closer every day, and I continue to work my way through predicting the winners in all of the major categories.  Having already covered the Featured Actors and Actresses, I now turn my sights toward Broadway's leading men.  I will be using all of my soothsaying ability to determine who will win, and chiming in when I think that individual doesn't line up with the person who should win.

 

Also, before I go any further, I want to address the number of complaints people made about snubs after this year's nominations were announced.  Yes, big names like Denzel Washington, James Franco, and Daniel Radcliffe didn't get nominated.  Not everyone can make the cut; that's just how these things work, and I doubt anyone actually believes these men are more entitled to a nomination because of their celebrity status.  These people weren't snubbed so much as unlucky, because to me the idea of a "snub" means the actor was passed over in favor of someone far inferior.  Looking at these categories, I don't see anyone I can actively point to and say, "He didn't deserve to be nominated."  Yes, I probably would have swapped out Rocky's Andy Karl for The Bridges of Madison County's Steven Pasquale, but that is a personal preference, and Karl certainly earned his slot.  So let's just put all this snub talk to bed and go about making our predictions!

Best Actor in a Play

Given his fondness for lying and manipulating people, it only makes sense the meth dealer Walter White would find himself right at home in politics.

 

Nominees: Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night; Bryan Cranston, All the Way; Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men; Mark Rylance, Richard III; Tony Shalhoub, Act One

This category could be renamed "Bryan Cranston and the Four Other Guys," because he is the clear frontrunner.  I am very happy Samuel Barnett was nominated for his understated, beautifully acted Viola in last fall's Twelfth Night, but the chances of him winning are extremely small.  Similarly, Tony Shalhoub is unlikely to beat out his higher profile competition given the indifference the Broadway community has for Act One.  And while Mark Rylance can never be completely ruled out of the game, the double nominee stands a much better chance of winning for his supporting work in the aforementioned Twelfth Night.

Cranston's biggest competition is Chris O'Dowd for playing the awards-baiting role of Lenny in Of Mice and Men.  Not to spoil a 75-year-old play, but Lenny is both developmentally disabled and meets a tragic end, an almost textbook character arc for a Tony-winning dramatic role.  However, by all accounts Cranston is a force of nature in All the Way, rarely leaving the stage during the play's 3-hour runtime and singlehandedly raising the show's artistic credibility.  Hopefully Cranston has room for on his shelf for a Tony to accompany his three Emmy Awards, because I'd call him a virtual lock for a Best Actor win.

Will and Should Win: Bryan Cranston, All the Way

 

Best Actor in a Musical

A denim crop top, fishnets, AND gold lame pumps?  You betta werk!!!

 

 

Nominees: Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch; Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables; Andy Karl, Rocky; Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder; Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Two of these fine gentleman are doing heroic work in deeply misguided productions, and both their last names begin with "K."  Andy Karl has somehow figured out a way to channel Sylvester Stallone while still making his Rocky feel like authentic and unique, but the show is such a deeply flawed piece I can't imagine him actually winning.  Meanwhile, Ramin Karimloo's Jean Valjean is perhaps the best-sung out of all the nominees, and the West End sensation is one of the only things that makes the ponderous Les Miserables revival bearable.  Karimloo is definitely a contender, but ultimately I think voters will pick one of the remaining three gentlemen for the big prize.

Between A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's two Tony-nominated leads, I think Bryce Pinkham has the harder role, but he pulls it off with such ease that you'd never know it.  Pinkham has the perfect roguish charm to make protagonist Monty Navarro (who, lest we forget, is a *serial killer*) someone you not only like but actively root for, grounding the show so that his costar Jefferson Mays is free to chew the scenery as all 8 members of the despicable D'Ysquith clan.  But Mays has garnered the lion's share of critical praise and adoration, and his flashy multiple roles could very well net him a second Tony Award.

And then there's Neil Patrick Harris, the Emmy-nominated television star who's multiple stints as Tonys host make it easy to forget he hasn't actually performed on Broadway in 10 years.  Harris' go-for-broke performance as the titular transgendered rocker in Hedwig and the Angry Inch is perhaps the biggest surprise of the season, dazzling in both its fearlessness and complexity.  Harris is simultaneously hilarious (his razor-sharp comic timing is on full display) and moving (especially in the show's latter half), proving he is the perfect actor to introduce this cult musical to a wider audience.  Although Mays is not out of the question, I'm predicting a win for Harris, who in addition to being fantastic also has years of goodwill built up from his hosting of the past three Tony Awards.

Should Win:  Bryce Pinkham (A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder) or Neil Patrick Harris (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)
Will Win: Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch


Check back soon for what are possibly the most competitive races of the season, Best Actress in a Play and Best Actress in a Musical (subtitle: The Broadway Hunger Games).  And while you're waiting, check out the rest of my Tony predictions below!

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress


2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part III (Best Actor)

As the announcement of the 2014 Tony nominees draws ever closer, I continue my valiant (insane?) effort to try and predict the nominees in all the major categories.  I've already tackled the production and Best Actress categories; today I take my best guess at Best Actor.  Again, my predictions are based on a very unscientific mixture of first-hand experience, industry hearsay, and gut feeling (but I tend to have a pretty good record at these sorts of things).  And I will always pick a Wildcard performer who I think has the greatest chance of unseating one of my presumptive five nominees.

On with the show!

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston should probably look into expanding the trophy wing of his house in the near future.

An embarrassment of riches that will probably see a fair amount of Hollywood talent nominated, the Best Actor race is a difficult one for me to get a read on.  No one seems to be a runaway favorite for either a nomination or a win, but some bets are safer than others.  Everybody loved Bryan Cranston in Breaking Bad, and it sounds like his acting skills have made the transition to the stage intact.  He's as close to a sure thing in this category as they come.  A week ago I would have considered The Glass Menagerie's Zachary Quinto a lock in this category, but his absence from both the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle lists makes his position rather precarious.  Formerly presumptive nominee Denzel Washington may also be in danger, as the theatrical community doesn't seem nearly as enamored with his performance in A Raisin in the Sun as they were with his (in my opinion overrated) star turn in Fences a few seasons back.

So if two of the presumptive nominees are in danger of losing their slots, who is challenging them?  For starters, Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellen, theatrical institutions who were roundly praised for their work in both Waiting for Godot and No Man's Land.  McKellen in particular has stated that this year's shows are likely his Broadway swan song, which means this could be the last chance ever for Tony voters to honor him with a second statuette (and his work in No Man's Land has already garnered him nods in the other guild awards).  Chris O'Dowd has wowed critics with his work as the gentle giant Lennie in Of Mice and Men, an award-bait role if there ever was one (mentally handicapped AND a tragic death).  And both Tony Shalhoub and Santino Fontano received raves for their work in Lincoln Center's Act One, although I doubt the category has room for both of them.  Given Shalhoub's seniority, and I'd say he has the edge, and Fontano will just have to console himself with last year's nomination and those royalty checks from the Frozen soundtrack.

In the unlikely but still possible category we have theatre vets Patrick Page and Roger Rees, for Casa Valentina and The Winslow Boy respectively.  Rees seemed to be more of the clear-cut lead of his show (Valentina is very much an ensemble piece), so if one of them was going to sneak in here it would be him.  I also wouldn't rule out Daniel Radcliffe, who gets steadily better reviews with each Broadway outing, although his role in The Cripple of Inishmaan doesn't allow him to show the range the other contenders in this category possess.

Nominees:
Bryan Cranston, All the Way
Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
Ian McKellen, No Man's Land
Zachary Quinto, The Glass Menagerie
Tony Shalhoub, Act One

Wildcards:
Daniel Radcliffe, The Cripple of Inishmaan
Denzel Washington, A Raisin in the Sun

Best Actor in a Musical

I don't remember this much smiling in Rocky, either onstage or from the audience.

In surveying this category, I am struck by how many men are doing solid work in questionable productions.  Ramin Karimloo single-handedly makes the ill-advised Les Miserables watchable, and Andy Karl manages to rise above the truly awful material he's given in Rocky to become a bonafide Broadway star.  Despite the questionable quality of their shows, I think both men are in a good positions to score their first-ever Tony nominations on Tuesday, although neither is a sure thing.  That honor goes to Neil Patrick Harris, who blew almost everyone away as a transgendered rocker in Hedwig and the Angry Inch.  The fact the beloved cult musical is even on Broadway is entirely due to Harris' attachment to the property, and the fact that all the critics loved it is a testament to how well the multitalented entertainer embodies the spirit of the piece.  (Besides, we kind of owe him for his years of being an amazing Tony host and all around enthusiastic theatre ambassador.)

Then we have the question of what to do about Jefferson Mays' and Bryce Pinkham's dual starring turns in A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder.  Mays has long been considered a frontrunner in this category for his madcap portrayal of all eight members of the doomed D'Ysquith clan, but Pinkham is every bit as good in the tougher and arguably more demanding role (if Pinkham wasn't carrying the show, Mays wouldn't be free to ham it up so gleefully).  In recent years, having two strong male co-leads has led to both men scoring nominations (see Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells in The Book of Mormon, or Billy Porter and Stark Sands in Kinky Boots), and that is a distinct possibility here.  I personally am rooting for Pinkham, who blew me away with his effortless charm and gorgeous tenor.

But if all five of the above men make it, that leaves no room for the very deserving Norbert Leo Butz and Steven Pasquale, which seems almost criminal given their amazing performances this season.  Although Big Fish as a show sharply divided audiences and critics, no one can argue with the Herculean work Butz did in the lead role; however, with two wins and four total nominations to his name, I think the Tony committee will choose to spread the wealth this year and leave Butz out of consideration.  But Pasquale has no previous nominations and is sensational in The Bridges of Madison County, with singing and acting chops every bit the equal to his luminous costar Kelli O'Hara.  Ultimately, I think a nomination is in the cards for Pasquale, most likely to the detriment of Karimloo, who will be done in by the critical indifference to his show.  At least everyone can take comfort in the fact they don't have to compete against Alan Cumming's resurrected Emcee, since the Scottish thespian is ineligible due to the fact that he already won the Tony the last time he played the role.

Nominees:
Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Andy Karl, Rocky
Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
Steven Pasquale, The Bridges of Madison County
Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Wildcards:
Norbert Leo Butz, Big Fish
Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables


That's all for now.  Join me tomorrow for the toughest and sometimes most arbitrary predictions of the year:  Best Featured Actor and Actress!

See the rest of my Tony coverage:
2014 Tony Nominee Predictions Part I (Production)
2014 Tony Nominee Predictions Part II (Best Actress)

Insanely Early 2014 Tony Predictions: Part III

I cannot speak for the rest of the country, but New York remains in the midst of a seemingly unending winter (and that damn groundhog thinks we have six more weeks of it left).  Broadway is deep in its winter doldrums too, with most of the splashy spring shows still in rehearsals before previews begin.  Which means that now is the perfect time to start handicapping this fall's productions for the upcoming Tony Awards!  You may think it's early, and it is, but what else are we going to talk about?  I've already given my thoughts on the productions and lead performances I consider well-positioned to score an eventual Tony nod, so now it's time to turn my same skills of unsubstantiated guesswork toward the featured performances.

For those who didn't read my last two posts, the rules for getting mentioned here are simple: the actor/actress must have made a major impression on the New York theatrical community.  As we have a whole slew of shows set to open during the spring, the only way any fall performance will be able to break into the crowded Featured Actor/Actress categories is via a universally praised turned.  As such, there are very few sure things in these categories, but that's not going to stop me from trying to pick the most likely nominees.

WARNING:  Occasional snark and wild speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Of all Jefferson Mays' deliriously daffy characters in Gentleman's Guide, the racially insensitive Lady Hyacinth is easily my favorite.

A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's Jefferson Mays is guaranteed one of the five slots in this category for his bravura turn as all eight members of the doomed D'Ysquith clan.  I'm a little surprised he wasn't upgraded to Lead Actor status, although I agree this category is where his roles, however showy, belong.  More confounding is the Tony committee's decision to consider his extremely talented costar Bryce Pinkham eligible in the same category despite the fact that Pinkham's upwardly mobile Monty Navarro forms the lynchpin of the entire evening.  I'm really hoping that Pinkham, who I found to be a sensational straight man and one of the purest tenors currently singing on Broadway, also scores a nomination for his work, but if the spring musicals are particularly strong he could find himself shut out by the flashier Mays.  And depending on how many fans Big Fish has on the Tony nominating committee, Bobby Steggert may find himself among the nominees as well.  Even that show's biggest detractors generally considered it to be well-acted, although I personally found Steggert to be the least memorable of the show's main trio.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Game, set, and match, gentleman.  Mark Rylance's Olivia in Twelfth Night is quite possibly the performance of the season, and it's only February.

They might as well just go ahead and engrave this Tony with Mark Rylance's name, because he is going to win it.  Rylance's Olivia in the all-male Twelfth Night is the buzziest performance of the season thus far, and rightfully so.  He took the role in unexpectedly hilarious directions, downplaying the character's normal refinement and making her an overgrown child prone to hysterical tantrums.  Not only was this a new interpretation, but one that was fully supported by the text and went a long way towards making this the funniest production of Twelfth Night I have ever seen.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see any of Rylance's costars nominated in this category (I was particularly impressed by Paul Chahidi's Maria), but Rylance is the man to beat.  Among the fall's other offerings, I think The Glass Menagerie's Brian J. Smith stands as good a shot as any Gentleman Caller ever has of being recognized, and I think that much ballyhooed production is well positioned to perform the hat trick of getting a nomination in each of the four acting categories (although Smith is probably most in danger of being shut out).

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

"Long suffering wife" is a sure road to awards contention, and Kate Baldwin played it with unusual depth and sincerity.  (Bonus: her slow-motion dance during "Time Stops" was one of the most beautifully simply staging moments of the season.)

I'm rooting for Big Fish's Kate Baldwin to get some recognition for her sterling work in that production, her first Broadway outing since her star-making turn in Finian's Rainbow four years ago.  I think the fact that she was deemed a Featured Actress rather than a Lead actual works in her favor, as it keeps her out of the hotly contested Best Actress race.  I also think there is a good chance one of the lovely ladies from Gentleman's Guide joins her on the red carpet, although whether that is Lisa O'Hare or Lauren Worsham remains a toss-up at this point.  In fact, I would *love* it if both women wound up nominated, as that show and particularly it's second act wouldn't be nearly as good without them.  If I had to pick one, I would go with O'Hare, as her Sibella is a little more complex and fun that Worsham's doe-eyed and superbly sung Phoebe.  But Worsham is one of the most winsome and interesting ingénues of the past several seasons, which only reinforces my wish for both of them to score nominations.

Best Featured Actress in a Play



Celia Keenan-Bolger rose to fame in a couple of high profile musical roles, but it's her critically acclaimed turn as Laura in The Glass Menagerie that may finally bring this talented actress Tony gold.

As I've stated before, I expect this latest revival for The Glass Menagerie to do very well come Tony time despite my personal dislike of it.  I think Celia Keenan-Bolger is a sure thing for a nomination, and depending on how the spring season goes the twice-nominated actress may actually win her first award.  In fact, as of right now, she's the only actress I think is in serious contention for this award, as the fall plays were particularly male-heavy, what with the two all-male Shakespeares and the Pinter/Beckett rep plays starring four male actors each.


And that concludes my semi-annual Tony rant.  There are a lot of shows opening in the next few months, and I hope to see a good number of them so that I can provide you all with reviews.  Look for more Tony talk from me closer to the announcement of the nominees on April 29th, after which point I will likely be unable to talk about anything else until the awards are handed out on June 8th.

A Gentleman's Guide to a Jolly Good Time

Review:  A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Murder, you say? - Jefferson Mays is absolutely killing it as the eight doomed D'Ysquiths in A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder.

A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, the delightful new musical comedy that just opened at the Walter Kerr Theatre, is the complete antithesis of everything that has come to define the contemporary Broadway musical, and is all the better for it. Smart, funny, and deliciously tongue-in-cheek, this gem of a show offers a refreshing change of pace from the bombast currently in vogue on the Great White Way, a thinking man's comedy by a couple of Broadway newcomers that is the most entertaining book musical of the fall season.  Even those who generally think themselves too highbrow for shows where the characters break into song are likely to find themselves won over by this Gentleman's many charms.

Set in Edwardian England, A Gentleman's Guide is built from a simple premise that yields increasingly surprising dividends.  Upon his mother's death, young Monty Navarro learns that he is ninth in line to the D'Ysquith (pronounced "DIE-sqwith") family fortune, and takes it upon himself to bump off the eight self-involved nobles standing between him and his inheritance.  He hopes his increased social stature will help win over his longtime love Sibella Hallward, but along the way falls for his beautiful and pure-hearted cousin Phoebe.  And in an ingenious twist, all eight of the D'Ysquith nobles (including two lovely ladies) are portrayed by Tony-winner Jefferson Mays in a bravura performance that is sure to put the versatile actor in contention for a second statuette.  What follows is an evening of unadulterated musical comedy bliss, expertly performed by a sensational cast with some of the most beautiful voices currently on Broadway.

The score by Steven Lutvak and Robert L. Freedman is initially unassuming - the opening number is probably the worst song in the bunch, which is a shame - but quickly grows into a glorious classically-tinged score that has moments of rapturous beauty.  Lutvak and Freedman display a particular gift for counterpoint in the production's many duets, and their ability to write extended musical scenes culminates in the breathtakingly accomplished Act II trio "I've Decided to Marry You," sung by Monty and his two love interests.  The show also contains several dynamite patter songs which show off the duo's sharp and intricate lyrics, which for once are actually audible instead of being drowned out by an over-amplified sound system like in so many other shows.  The score has been masterfully orchestrated by the legendary Jonathan Tunick, who works under the charmingly novel idea that perhaps the orchestra should support the voice rather than compete with it.

Freedman's book keeps the show moving along at a steady clip, quickly establishing the various members of the D'Ysquith clan and just as quickly dispatching with them.  Despite the amount of plot he must cover, Freedman still manages to draw full and complex portraits of the three romantic leads, and the supporting characters have just enough flair to keep them easily distinguishable from one another.  The ending is probably too convoluted for its own good, but just as in the musical comedies of yore the destination isn't really the focus here.  A Gentleman's Guide is all about the journey, and it is a thoroughly entertaining one.

The cast is uniformly fantastic, starting with Jefferson Mays as the eight doomed members of the D'Ysquith family.  The mercurial Mays switches among his various personas with ease, granting each one a different set of quirks and mannerisms that make them instantly recognizable (Mays is greatly aided by Linda Cho's distinctive and gorgeous costumes).  More importantly, Mays makes all of them laugh-out-loud funny, striking a perfect balance between high and low comedy that is essential in establishing the evening's tone.  Mays is particularly memorable as the foppish Henry, who sings a hilarious duet with Monty entitled "Better with a Man," and the Tony-winner also scores as the delightfully self-involved Lady Hyacinth, who spends an entire musical number debating which starving, third world children are most worthy of her charity.

As the affably murderous Monty Navarro, Bryce Pinkham is perhaps the production's greatest discovery.  His Monty is sweet, unassuming, and undeniably British, feeling authentic and believable throughout the proceedings.  Pinkham anchors the entire show with a charming everyman quality that causes you to root for him even though he is essentially an unrepentant serial killer, and the young actor has the ability to suggest a whole host of emotions roiling just below the surface while maintaining his proper British poise (a dichotomy that is wonderfully exploited during the song "Stop! Wait! What!?!").  Pinkham also sings beautifully, with an effortless tenor that is one of the purest male voices to grace Broadway in a good long while. 

He is matched, note for note and scene for scene, by his two spectacular leading ladies.  Lisa O'Hare is ravishing as Monty's first love Sibella, making the character's nonstop rambling and concern with outward appearances endearing rather than off-putting.  O'Hare also flawlessly navigates Sibella's increasing jadedness without ever losing sight of the traits that made Monty (and the audience) fall in love with her in the first place.  Lauren Worsham is just as delightful as the eternally optimistic Phoebe D'Ysquith, radiating a winsome star quality that makes her an equally appealing match for the lovelorn Monty.  Both women are making positively smashing Broadway debuts, and when they sing together or with Pinkman (as in the aforementioned "I've Decided to Marry You") the actresses sound heavenly.

Director Darko Tresnjak deserves full credit for casting such fantastic actors and coaxing such winning performances out of them, although his staging for the show falls a bit short of the high benchmark set by the performers.  Tresnjak nails the tone and keeps the show moving, but his stage pictures are rarely very interesting to look at.  He is partially hampered by Alexander Dodge's set, which in attempting to replicate the feel of an English music hall has effectively halved the amount of available playing space for most scenes.  There's definitely more to the scenic design than initially apparent, although the scattered surprises don't really justify the concessions made in the area of actor mobility.

In the end, A Gentleman's Guide's strengths far outweigh its weaknesses, and the show proves itself one of the most unexpected delights of the fall season.  A refreshing change of pace from the loud, pop-influenced excess of most modern-day musicals, the show marks the auspicious Broadway debuts of both the writing team and a good portion of the highly talented cast.  It is a rare show that manages to be this entertaining while remaining intellectually stimulating, and it would be absolutely scandalous for any true theatre lover to miss it.  A killer good time is practically guaranteed (sorry, I had to).