2018 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

And just like that, it's Tony season! As always, I will be doing my best to predict this year's winners, and pointing out any discrepancies between who I think *will* win and who *deserves* to win in my analysis. This season has not produced a Hamilton or Dear Evan Hansen level juggernaut, which actually makes a lot of the races more interesting as there isn't a runaway smash to dominate the new musical categories like Best Book and Best Score. So how do I think these two prestigious categories will go down? Read on to find out!

Best Book

Erika Henningson as Cady Heron and Ashley Park, Taylor Louderman, and Karen Rockwell as the titular Mean Girls.

Nominees: Itamar Moses, The Band's Visit; Jennifer Lee, Frozen; Tina Fey, Mean Girls; Kyle Jarrow, SpongeBob SquarePants

No point in beating around the bush: this is Tina Fey's award to lose. Her book for Mean Girls is just as hysterically funny and endlessly quotable as the film, and although this is her Broadway debut she is a beloved comedy icon the Broadway community has welcomed with open arms. Her greatest competition is Itamar Moses for The Band's Visit, a critical darling of a musical character study which I found to be lacking in the character department. Understated to a fault, Moses' book does a poor job of transitioning into the musical numbers or sufficiently establishing the characters when they aren't singing, leaving the whole show feeling dramatically inert.

If anyone truly deserves to upset Fey it's Kyle Jarrow, who crafted an original narrative for SpongeBob SquarePants that for the most part seamlessly integrates the songs of over a dozen pop artists. He's a big reason SpongeBob feels like a proper musical and not a corporation-birthed Frankenstein monster, and he deftly balances appeasing the cartoon's massive fan base while keeping the show accessible to those who have never seen an episode in their life. As for Frozen's Jennifer Lee, she has admirable expanded her original screenplay for the stage, but will have to settle for the honor of being nominated (and the huge royalty checks Disney sends her each month).

Will and Should Win: Tina Fey, Mean Girls

Bonus Prediction: After years of handing out Best Book during commercial breaks, the Tony telecast will magically find time to actually show this category and its presumed big name winner on air.

Best Score

The cast of The Band's Visit on Broadway.

Nominees: Adrian Sutton, Angels in America; David Yazbek, The Band's Visit; Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, Frozen; Jeff Richmond and Nell Benjamin, Mean Girls; Various Artists, SpongeBob SquarePants

A week hours ago this category seemed pretty cut and dry. David Yazbek, previously nominated in this category three times without winning, has written the score to the most critically lauded musical of the season. And his ethereal music for The Band's Visit is easily the most beguiling part of that production, so a Tony Award appeared to be in his immediate future. But then the Outer Critics' Circle awarded Best Score to the 17 recording artists behind SpongBob SquarePants, a show that increasingly looks like it could be a major dark horse contender during this year's awards season.

However, while SpongeBob's win is an interesting wrinkle, it probably won't affect the final outcome. Remember that Yazbek wasn't eligible for this year's OCCs since The Band's Visit premiered Off-Broadway last season and so competed in the 2017 awards (which it and Yazbek both won). I still consider him the front runner, but if there were to be an upset, SpongeBob now seems the most likely suspect. The merely serviceable score of unmemorable songs in Mean Girls poses no real threat. Meanwhile, husband and wife team Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez have beautifully augmented Frozen's score for the stage, but the Disney megamusical has left critics cold and no one can argue the multiple Oscar and Emmy winners *need* another award. And while its wonderful for Adrian Sutton that his Angels in America score was nominated, this is still at heart a musical songwriting category, and I cannot imagine Tony voters going against that with even semi-viable alternatives, which they have.

Will and Should Win: David Yazbek, The Band's Visit


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React

2017 Tony Award Predictions: Book and Score

In just a few short weeks, the American Theatre Wing will hand out the 71st Annual Tony Awards, celebrating the best of Broadway this past season. As is tradition, I will once again use my unique combination of personal opinion, critical analysis, and industry buzz to try and predict the winners of this year's awards!

2017 is going to be a lot trickier to predict than 2016, since we aren't able to vote Hamilton down the line. While nothing has been the game changing, record setting blockbuster that Hamilton was (and continues to be), there are multiple excellent productions vying for Broadway's top prize this year, and no clear front runner among them. Many of the big races could go a multitude of ways, particularly among the new musicals, so take everything I say with a grain of salt. Also remember that I am predicting who I think will win, not necessarily who I think deserves to win; if I personally disagree with the way things seem to be going, I will be sure to point it out in my analysis.

So let's start this year's Tony predictions off with two of the tightest races of the night, Best Book and Best Score!

Best Book of a Musical

The company of Come From Away.

Nominees: Irene Sankoff and David Hein, Come From Away; Steven Levenson, Dear Evan Hansen; Danny Rubin, Groundhog Day; Dave Malloy, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

This year's Tony nominees showed a clear consensus among the nominating committee regarding the strongest new musicals; the nominated shows for this, Best Score, and the coveted Best Musical trophy are identical. Even more interesting/exciting is the fact that an argument could be made for any of these shows in any of the categories (well, except for Groundhog Day). I honestly don't know which way the Tony voters will swing.

Since Great Comet received the most total nominations this year, it should always be considered in contention for a win. However, I think Best Book is a long shot for the little Off-Broadway musical that could, as Dave Malloy's through composed work lacks any traditional book scenes. This is *not* meant in any way to disparage the structural bones Malloy has hung his mesmerizingly eclectic score on, but I don't know if enough people grasp how a musical without dialogue still has a book for him to win. 

Come From Away and Dear Evan Hansen are neck and neck here, and both are incredibly deserving. Conventional wisdom would have Tony voters rewarding Steven Levenson's more easily noticed work on Evan Hansen, which has both depth and cultural relevancy while expertly balancing comedy and pathos. But the way married writing team Irene Sankoff and David Hein seamlessly weave in and out of song and dialogue in Come From Away is truly a marvel, and their years of workshopping have resulted in a show where I honestly wouldn't change one word. They could easily score an upset over Levenson, and the more I think about it, the more I think they will.

Will and Should Win: Irene Sankoff and David Hein, Come From Away

Best Score

Lucas Steele and Denee Benton in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

Nominees: Irene Sankoff and David Hein, Come From Away; Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, Dear Evan Hansen; Tim Minchin, Groundhog Day; Dave Malloy, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

Once again, I think we can rule out Groundhog Day (this will be a recurring theme in my predictions). In this case, Tim Minchin's music seems to actively work against the storytelling, with roughly half the musical numbers eliciting a response of "Why is there a song here?" His overly verbose compositions are also difficult to decipher in the theatre, and in general this is one nomination I don't feel is deserved (I would have picked War Paint's Scott Frankel and Michael Korie instead). And while I won't completely rule out Come From Away's Irene Sankoff and David Hein, especially if the show ends up having a strong night, I think a win for score is a long shot for the Canadian duo. Their folk-influenced songs are lovely, but not as memorable as the remaining two nominees. 

Dear Evan Hansen and Great Comet represent two very different compositional philosophies, so the ultimate winner is largely up to Tony voters' sensibilities. For all the pop leanings of Dear Evan Hansen's contemporary score, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul have ultimately written recognizable, hummable showtunes. These are narrative driven songs of the highest quality, ones that strike a fine balance between melodic invention and accessibility, and their haunting "For Forever" is probably my favorite new song of the season. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Dave Malloy's incredibly adventurous fusion of such disparate genres as Russian folk music, electronica, and even opera into the dizzying symphony of Great Comet's auditory landscape. It isn't for everyone and rubs certain audience members the wrong way, but others (myself among them) find its unconventional nature to be its strongest asset.

We don't have the other theatre awards to give us any indication of how people are leaning, as the shows had their Off-Broadway premieres in different seasons and so have never been nominated against one another. I think Tony voters will ultimately go with Pasek and Paul, two incredibly talented up and comers who are still riding high on their Oscar win for La La Land. And I will be thrilled for them. But in my heart of heart, if forced to vote, I personally would choose Great Comet, and wouldn't be at all surprised or angry if Malloy wins instead.

Will Win: Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, Dear Evan Hansen

Should Win: Dave Malloy, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

Please continue to check back throughout the next two weeks for more Tony predictions, and share your own thoughts in the comments below!

2016 Tony Award Predictions: Book and Score

The 2016 Tony Awards are less than 3 weeks away, which means it's time for me to get cracking on my annual prediction articles. Many people in the industry are assuming Hamilton will sweep the awards, and while I expect the hip-hop musical to do extremely well on June 12th I think several of the big categories are a lot more competitive than you might expect.

As I do every year, I will be predicting the winner in all of the non-design categories, discussing the pros and cons of each nominee before making my official choice. However, since who will win is an entirely separate concept from who I think should win, whenever those two artists don't line up I will be sure to mention it in my analysis. With that said, let's start out easy and look at two categories that feel like foregone conclusions at this point, Best Book and Best Score.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Book of a Musical

Lin-Manuel Miranda and the cast of Hamilton

Nominees: Steve Martin, Bright Star; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton; Julian Fellowes, School of Rock; George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along

There's a bit of misunderstanding among many theatre fans about what a musical book writer actually does, to the point where the head of the Dramatist Guild actually felt the need to write in to the New York Times to clarify. Many people equate a musical's book with its spoken dialogue, and while that is a part of it a musical's book is really its structure, which is why through-composed works like Rent, Les Miserables, and a little show called Hamilton all have them. And Lin-Manuel Miranda's book for Hamilton is nothing short of genius, effortlessly balancing the sweep of the historical narrative with the emotional journeys of the story's various characters. Every single principle and supporting character has a narrative arc, and they are so deftly handled that you never have trouble tracking the various storylines even when a character disappear for long stretches of time. 

I haven't seen all of the nominees in this category, but I have trouble imagining any of them carrying off the immense difficulty of such a task with the ease and finesse of Miranda (indeed, George C. Wolfe's ambitious but unwieldy book causes a lot of Shuffle Along's more glaring problems). Broadway's favorite writer/composer/performer has this one in the bag.

Will & Should Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

Best Score

Tony nominees Christopher Jackson and Lin-Manuel Miranda as George Washington and Alexander Hamilton in Hamilton.

Nominees: Steve Martin & Edie Brickell, Bright Star; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton; Andrew Lloyd Webber & Glenn Slater, School of Rock; Sara Bareilles, Waitress

There are some incredibly worthy nominees in this category, and in a year without a juggernaut like Hamilton any one of them could be a frontrunner to actually win. Bright Star didn't get amazing reviews, but even the naysayers all singled out the bluegrass score as a highlight. School of Rock has been hailed as a return to form for Sir Andrew Lloyd Webber, who love him or hate him has proven repeatedly that he knows how to write hummable, instantly recognizable melodies. And Sara Bareilles' brand of story-driven pop rock always seemed like a natural fit for the world of musical theatre, so it's no surprise to see the Broadway neophyte represented here.

But Hamilton is another beast entirely. Anyone who has heard the cast album can tell you it is compulsively listenable, drawing you in the way few shows can. Lin-Manuel Miranda took musical styles not normally associated with Broadway and made them insanely theatrical, showing a melodic and rhythmic genius that In the Heights only hinted at. The breadth of the score is astounding, from the giddy girl-group excitement of "The Schuyler Sisters" to the Brit pop of "You'll Be Back" to the soulful R&B influenced "Satisfied," a song which may be the most bravura example of musical theatre composition from the past ten years. The endlessly inventive score sees US Cabinet members debating via rapid fire rapping and secret government meetings backed by a pounding club beat, all wrapped up in some of the most brilliant lyrics to grace the Broadway stage. The score reveals new layers upon each hearing, be it a sly lyrical reference to Gilbert and Sullivan or a melodic motif that appears in an unexpected bit of underscoring, making Miranda the clear favorite here.

Will & Should Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments, and check back throughout the next few weeks for more Tony predictions.

2015 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Now that the dust from the nominations announcement has settled and we know exactly who will be competing for this year's Tony Awards, it's time to play the industry's favorite game: Guess the Winners. You can't get more than two theatre people in the same room at this time of year without at least some discussion of who's going to win Broadway's highest honor, and Broadway Etc is here to help cut through the noise and give you one educated theatregoer's best predictions.

The secret to correctly predicting Tony winners is the ability to distinguish between personal feelings of who should win and focus on who has the momentum and buzz to actually win, which are by no means the same thing. I've previously discussed what I consider some of the most egregious Tony oversights, and there's bound to be at least one surprise winner come June 7th, especially with so many deserving nominees in several extremely close races. As always, I will start with predicting the behind the scenes awards like writing and direction before seguing into the more high profile performance categories and eventually the closely watched production races. And should I sense that the likely winner doesn't align with my preferred choice, I will be sure to point that out.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Book of a Musical

Sydney Lucas, Beth Malone, and Emily Skeggs (all Tony nominees this season) in Fun Home.

Nominees: Craig Lucas, An American in Paris; Lisa Kron, Fun Home; Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell, Something Rotten!; Terrance McNally, The Visit

The interesting thing about the new musical races is they distinguish between a show's writing and the actual production, whereas the Best Play award doubles as both a production and writing honor. Tony voters have often used this distinction as a way to recognize more artistically daring shows while still naming a crowd pleaser Best Musical (see: Ragtime vs. The Lion King, Urinetown vs. Thoroughly Modern Millie). There has been much debate over whether the critically acclaimed Fun Home can overcome the perceived handicap of its subject matter (weighty issues like homosexuality and suicide) to become a popular hit, which at this point is likely the universally praised show's biggest obstacle on the road to Tony glory.

Which is where the Best Book award comes in, as it is very difficult to argue there is better writing among this year's musicals than Lisa Kron's nuanced take on a young woman coming to terms with her own identity. There are certainly charms to Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell's work on Something Rotten!, but the show ultimately succumbs to structural issues in the second act that keep it from being a serious awards contender. The surreal musical The Visit has failed to gain much momentum despite the theatrical heavyweights behind it, and while Craig Lucas has an outside chance of winning for his work on the increasingly popular An American in Paris I think voters will ultimately choose to honor Kron. (The fact that Kron's work helped make Fun Home a finalist for the 2014 Pulitzer Prize certainly doesn't hurt her chances).

Will & Should Win: Lisa Kron, Fun Home

Best Original Score

Young Alison experiences a rare moment of bonding with her elusive father in Fun Home, one of the most nominated shows of the season.

Nominees: Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron, Fun Home; Sting, The Last Ship; Wayne Kirkpatrick and Karey Kirkpatrick, Something Rotten!; John Kander and Fred Ebb, The Visit

It is a rare artist who reaches Jeanine Tesori's level of industry notoriety without receiving a Tony Award. There is likely a feeling among voters that she is overdue for Broadway's highest honor, and it looks like this may be the year the adventurous, boundary pushing composer finally takes home the big prize. Her expertly written Fun Home score covers an enormous range of emotions and musical styles in the course of the show's single act, without ever feeling disjointed or pieced together. While the universally admired Kander and Ebb have written a very good score for their final collaboration The Visit, it seems unlikely to result in another career Tony Award for the esteemed pair. And while there's no denying the cleverness of the Kirkpatrick brothers' lyrics for the irreverent Something Rotten!, with the exception of the extremely catchy opening number not many of the songs in that score really stick with you past the final curtain. In fact, I'd argue Tesori's biggest competition comes from Grammy-winning Broadway newcomer Sting, whose score for The Last Ship is a similarly nuanced and ethereal piece of composing. But Tesori's score has more breadth, and her show a more important milestone in the development of the musical artform, which means she and lyricist Lisa Kron will likely be the ones making the trip to the podium on Tony Sunday

Will & Should Win: Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron, Fun Home


That's all for today, but stay tuned for many more Tony predictions in the weeks to come. Next up, I discuss the nominees for Best Direction and Choreography, and in the meantime you can catch up on my previous coverage of this year's show below.

2015 Tony Nominee React

2014 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Continuing my Tony predictions for the 2013-2014 Broadway season, it's time to turn my eye towards the writing of this season's musicals.  Since musicals are a collaborative art form, they are arguably harder (and definitely take longer) to write than a regular play, and there are a lot more places where something can go wrong.  It is also possible for elements of a show to succeed while the production as a whole doesn't, which is why this year's Best Book and Best Score categories aren't just copies of the Best Musical nominees.  So which shows will win the Book and Score Tonys on June 8th, and are they the same as the shows that deserve to win?  Find out below!

Best Book of a Musical

Jefferson Mays gets a lot of credit for his 8 scenery chewing characters in A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, but bookwriter Robert L. Freedman gave him some great material to work with.

 

Nominees:  Woody Allen, Bullets Over Broadway; Chad Beguelin, Aladdin; Robert L. Freedman, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder; Douglas McGrath, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical

It's very hard to imagine a scenario where A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's Robert. L. Freedman doesn't win this category.  Gentleman has the most Tony nominations of any show this year, clearly illustrating the Tony committee's fondness for the musical farce.  And since Gentleman's Guide doesn't really have any production numbers or marquee value stars, that love is entirely based on the show's witty, tightly paced writing.  Like most musical comedies, the destination isn't all that interesting (or even all that clear), but the journey there is filled with smart dialogue and characters that walk fine line between being large enough to elicit laughs and believable enough for the audience to invest in.

Given the ambivalence towards Bullets Over Broadway, I doubt Oscar-winner Woody Allen is much of a contender here (and whether true or not, the recent child molestation scandal will surely deter a few voters from supporting him).  The book of Beautiful was generally the most derided aspect of that show in critical reviews, and although I think Chad Beguelin did a better job than previous Disney musicals of incorporating new elements into the existing material, Aladdin's charms lie mostly in its musical numbers.  This one is deservedly Freedman's to lose.

Will and Should Win: Robert L. Freedman, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder 

Best Score

Jason Robert Brown turned The Bridges of Madison County from a trashy, critically derided novel into a legitimate work of art.  That should be worth a couple of Tony Awards on its own.

 

Nominees:  Alan Menken, Howard Ashman, Tim Rice and Chad Beguelin, Aladdin; Jason Robert Brown, The Bridges of Madison County; Steven Lutvak and Robert L. Freedman, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder; Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey, If/Then

This category is so lopsided it isn't even a race; it's just a formality between Jason Robert Brown and his second Best Score Tony.  The music for The Bridges of Madison County is one of the greatest examples of sustained artistic excellent in the past decade, gloriously sung by two of the most gifted vocalists working on Broadway today.  Epically grand and breathtakingly gorgeous, the score is packed to the gills with songs that stop the show with their sheer beauty (the picturesque yet mournful opening "To Build a Home," the folksy "Another Life," Kelli O'Hara's Act II stunner "Almost Real," and the climactic duet "One Second and a Million Miles").  Even the show's detractors were forced to admit that Brown's score is a masterwork, easily the best thing this gifted composer has ever written.

The only team with even the slightest possibility of scoring an upset is A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's Steven Lutvak and Robert L. Freedman.  Their Gilbert-and-Sullivan-esque score has more melodic invention than is apparent on first listen, and their deft lyrics are overflowing with wit and a decidedly cheeky sense of humor.  But this isn't a Wicked/Avenue Q situation, where the latter's consistently clever score surprisingly beat out the former's uneven mix of modern classics ("Popular," "Defying Gravity") and inert clunkers (anything involving the Wizard).  Bridges is fantastic from end to end, and will rightly win the Tony Award for its sustained excellence.

Will and Should Win: Jason Robert Brown, The Bridges of Madison County


Keep checking back throughout the next two weeks for more Tony predictions and commentary!  And catch up on any coverage you may have missed by checking out the following:

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography


2013 Tony Perdictions: Best Book and Score

It’s the middle of awards season here in NYC, and the name on everybody’s lips is “Tony.”  Last time I predicted who would win the coveted statuette in the Choreography and Direction categories; today, I pick who will and should win the awards for Best Book and Score.  At this point I should mention that I have still not seen Matilda, which is obviously one of the major competitors in these races, so there will be some speculation and possible bias going on here.  I reserve the right to change my predictions after seeing the show, and if I do, look for an updated entry at a later date.  But if I don’t start on these articles now I’ll never finish before June 9^th, so let’s get down to business!

Best Book of a Musical

The team behind Matilda must have spent weeks taking courses on how to best impress the American press, because the critics certainly *adored* it.

 

Nominees:  Joseph Robinette, A Christmas Story; Harvey Fierstein, Kinky Boots; Dennis Kelly, Matilda the Musical; Douglas Carter Beane, Cinderella

 

In case you’re new to this blog, I want to make it very clear that I despise Douglas Carter Beane’s libretto work, and think Cinderella is the most offensively awful writing he’s done to date.  Not only is his post-modern snark in complete opposition to the overwhelming earnestness of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s score, but Beane fails to make his additions funny or compelling in their own right. His attempt to develop characters beyond their fairytale archetypes falls flat, leading to personality inconsistencies and confused motivations that the talented cast struggles to make sense of.  And the less said about his entry-level lecture on the wonders of democratic rule the better.  A three time Tony nominee, Beane clearly has his fans among the Tony voters, but there are an equal number who thought this Cinderella was a train wreck of epic proportions, and I can’t imagine him winning this category.

Joseph Robinette’s adaptation of A Christmas Story was serviceable but nothing special, and the long-closed show will have major difficulty competing with its still running rivals.  Harvey Fierstein is one of the most consistently excellent librettists in the industry, and his work on Kinky Boots once again demonstrates his uncanny ability to couple witty one-liners with genuine heart and solid story structure, creating honest if exaggerated characters that propel the narrative forward at an effervescent pace.  I imagine that Dennis Kelly’s book for Matilda is equally solid, as the Brits have a knack for strong story structure thanks to their familiarity with the classics of dramatic literature.  I am cheering for Fierstein, but I think this is one category where Matilda has the edge.

 

Should Win:  Harvey Fierstein, Kinky Boots

Will Win:  Dennis Kelly, Matilda the Musical

 

Best Score

Whatever Lola wants, Lola gets.  And Lola wants a Tony for Kinky Boots

 

Nominees:  Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, A Christmas Story; Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green, Hands on a Hardbody; Cyndi Lauper, Kinky Boot; Tim Minchin, Matilda the Musical

 

Kudos to Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green for getting recognition for the underrated Hands on a Hardbody, but this is a case where the nomination is the win, as I can’t imagine a scenario where the pair beats their higher profile competition.  With twelve total nominations and lots of critical love, Tim Minchin is certainly a contender for his work on Matilda, although from a merit-based perspective I think this is one of the British import’s weaker categories.  The score is rarely the strongest element of any British musical, and I think a win for Minchin would likely be viewed as an upset.

I’m torn about who I want to win among the remaining two nominees.  I certainly liked Cyndi Lauper’s score for Kicky Boots, which managed to fuse her distinct pop sensibility with more traditional musical theatre idioms.  She is also the biggest name in this category, and the Tony voters have a habit of rewarding celebrities from other mediums who make credible Broadway debuts.  But in the grand scheme of things, Lauper is unlikely to write another musical anytime soon, if at all, whereas University of Michigan graduates Benj Pasek and Justin Paul would most likely dedicate their lives to writing excellent shows.  Not only is A Christmas Story the most inventive and exciting score of the season (at least in my opinion), but Pasek and Paul are the most promising songwriting team to emerge in years.  I wholeheartedly believe that they could become the next Kander and Ebb or Ahrens and Flaherty, and a Tony win would give them the clout to get future projects off the ground and into production.  Broadway needs to do more to nurture the next generation of musical theatre songwriters or eventually we’ll be left with nothing but revivals and jukebox musicals, and a win for the young duo would definitely be a step in the right direction.  The smart money is on Lauper, but I’m really hoping Pasek and Paul manage to pull an Avenue Q-level upset. 

 

Should Win:  Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, A Christmas Story

Will Win:  Cyndi Lauper, Kinky Boots

 

That’s all for now.  The supporting acting categories are up next, and don’t forget to check out the previous articles in my Tony Predictions series:

 

Best Choreography and Direction

2013 Tony Nomination React

2012 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Before I continue my 2012 Tony Award predictions, here’s a quick recap of the two caveats I elaborated on in my first article:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win (reasons for any variance in the two will be elaborated in the article).

Since Tony night is fast approaching, let’s not waste any more time!

Best Book of a Musical

Nominees:  Douglas Carter Beane, Lysistrata Jones; Harvey Fierstein, Newsies; Joe DiPietro, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Enda Walsh, Once

I died a little inside when I read that Douglas Carter Beane was nominated for his atrocious book to Lysistrata Jones.  Beane managed to completely remove the anti-war allegory that’s allowed the Greek Lysistrata to withstand the test of time, and replaced it with poorly developed characters and painfully unfunny one-liners.  He doesn’t deserve to be nominated, and rest assured there is no way he can possibly win (the fact that Lysistrata closed months ago is the final nail in Beane’s coffin).

I would put Harvey Fierstein’s libretto for Newsies and Joe DiPietro’s book for Nice Work on the same level artistically.  Both are perfectly serviceable scripts, free of any glaring plot holes or structural weaknesses.  Both segue nicely into their respective musical numbers while simultaneously crafting characters with the illusion of depth, even if many of them lack actual substance.  Unfortunately, neither libretto takes the extra steps necessary to qualify as Tony-worthy.  The book scenes in both shows primarily serve as filler in between the musical numbers, rather than adding much of substance to their respective shows.

By contrast, Enda Walsh’s book for Once approaches the depth and quality of a play script.  Despite some very long scenes (at least by musical theatre standards), the Once libretto remains engrossing and provides information that greatly enhances the already strong emotional impact of the show’s songs.  Once relies on such a delicately established mood that it would not work without the Walsh’s first rate contributions, and he will deservedly take home the Tony for his efforts on June 10^th.

Will & Should Win:  Enda Walsh, Once

Best Original Score

Nominees:  Frank Wildhorn & Don Black, Bonnie and Clyde; Alan Menken & Jack Feldman, Newsies; Grant Olding, One Man, Two Guvnors; Wayne Barker & Rick Elice, Peter and the Starcatcher

I could (and probably should) write an entire blog entry about the sorry state of musical theatre composition.  The fact that two of the four Best Original Score nominations went to plays instead of musicals proves how little good work is being done in this area.  Unfortunately, the year’s strongest score – the haunting and beautiful Once – was written for another medium and is therefore ineligible.  But while the Tony committee has shown a willingness to nominate play scores in the past few years, I don’t think they are prepared to actually give the prize to a non-musical, which rules out both One Man, Two Guvnors and Peter and the Starcatcher. 

Which leaves Bonnie & Clyde and Newsies, with their oft-nominated but so far unrewarded composers.  Now, if you had told me a year ago that Frank “Modulation” Wildhorn would be the most deserving of a Best Score Tony, I would have laughed in your face.  But this time round Wildhorn wrote a genuinely theatrical score, with many of the songs containing actual narrative action rather than an endless series of ever-higher money notes.  He has successfully fused the bluegrass and folk idioms with show music, and many of the show’s ballads are genuinely beautiful as opposed to his usual manufactured bombast.  All of this, combined with weak competition, makes Bonnie & Clyde legitimately the strongest work nominated this year.

Unfortunately for Wildhorn, there’s clearly no overcoming the tarnished reputation his past work has earned him.  Having his name on the marquee caused Bonnie & Clyde to be unfairly trashed by critics, and the show closed within a month of opening.  Meanwhile Newsies was embraced by critics and has been playing to near sell-out business, and its composer Alan Menken has managed to maintain a high reputation among the theatre elite despite some questionable shows of his own.  For all of its repetitiveness and overly-earnest emotion, Newsies does feature several catchy numbers and one genuinely inventive solo for its leading lady.  And since Menken has never won the big award, the committee will likely give him a Tony statuette that will in name be for this show, but will really be for his body of work.

Will Win:  Alan Menken, Newsies

Should Win:  Frank Wildhorn, Bonnie & Clyde (yes, I really just typed that)

That’s it for now.  Join me next time as I begin dissecting which performers have done award-worthy work this past season.