The Best Shows of 2015: Part I

Despite the unseasonably warm weather New York City has been experiencing, it is in fact the end of December. With the new year just around the corner, it is time for me to look back and select my 10 favorite shows of 2015. The qualifications for making this list are simple: the production must have had its official opening night during the 2015 calendar year, and it must have been seen by yours truly. That means that certain praised productions are automatically ineligible, and therefore this should by no means be viewed as a comprehensive/final judgment on the quality of all theatre that happened this year.

With those caveats in place, here are 5 of the productions I enjoyed the most this year, with my Top 5 selections to follow in the next post:

10) Dames at Sea

Eloise Kropp and Cary Tedder dancing up a storm in Dames at Sea.

Given the lukewarm reviews and positively abysmal box office, I am clearly in the minority when it comes to my enjoyment of the first Broadway mounting of the 40-year-old Dames at Sea. And to be fair, I understand where a lot of the most common critiques of the show are coming from. It is unfailing earnest, often to the point of ridiculousness, but that's kind of the point. I think the problem with Dames is that it's spoofing a genre (1930s movie musicals) that isn't really in the public consciousness anymore, which automatically makes it feel dated and irrelevant to many. But that perception does nothing to take away from the polish and professionalism with which the cast delivers the delightfully daffy material, or the gee whiz excitement of seeing director/choreographer Randy Skinner creates some of Broadway's most thrilling tap routines with just 6 superbly dancers. And it certainly doesn't undermine the sheer comic brilliance of Lesli Margherita's performance as Mona Kent, whose work as a demanding diva is one of the most consistently hilarious performances of the year. Anyone with the slightest inclination to see the show should really make the effort to get out to the Helen Hayes Theatre before the final curtain falls this Sunday; you won't be disappointed.

9) Spring Awakening

Daniel N. Duran and Krysta Rodriguez in Deaf West's revival of Spring Awakening.

Unlike many people of my generation, I am not particularly enamored with Spring Awakening as a show. While the music has an undeniable if slightly repetitive beauty, once you get past the fact that such frank exploration of teenage sexuality is unusual in a musical the show really isn't saying anything all that insightful. And yet the current Deaf West revival of the 2007 Tony-winner is so viscerally impactful and unerringly gorgeous that a lot of the show's flaws fall away, leaving what may be the best possible version of the work. The addition of American Sign Language to the story creates an extra layer of purposeful abstraction that frees Spring Awakening from of the burden of being a book musical and turns it firmly into an expressionistic mood piece, a tonal shift that supports the script and music much better. You no longer have to intellectually understand what a "Mirror-Blue Night" is, because the accompanying visuals are so impactful they convey the feeling of that night for you. And when the cast of hearing and deaf actors comes together to sing/sign about how they're "Totally Fucked," even the most curmudgeonly of audience members will be right there with them, reliving the awkward frustration of their youth.

8) Fun Home

The cast of Fun Home on Broadway.

For me, Fun Home is actually a somewhat problematic production. All of the individual elements are stellar, from Jeanine Tesori's adventurous score to Lisa Kron's nuanced book to Sam Gold's first-rate direction. Then there are the first rate performances, which saw practically the entire cast nominated for Tony Awards and Michael Cerveris taking home Best Actor in a Musical for his revelatory, transformative performance as the protagonist's closeted gay father. And yet at the end of the evening, I wasn't nearly as moved as it seemed I should be. All of that said, I would be a fool to deny the artistic excellence of the production, to say nothing of its significance in the contemporary theatrical landscape. The show pushes the boundaries of what a commercial Broadway musical can be, tackling issues of sexuality and identity when they are at the top of the national consciousness while also providing a much needed, highly visible platform of the work of female writers. My heart of stone aside, the show certainly deserves all of the success it has found, and is definitely something any and all interested parties should check out.

7) The Iceman Cometh

Brian Dennehy and Nathan Lane in the BAM production of The Iceman Cometh.

Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh represents theatre at its most epic. This 4 act, nearly 5 hour long American tragedy is not for the faint of heart, requiring an extremely compelling and talented cast to maintain the audience's interest for the duration of its marathon runtime. This year's revival of the piece at the Brooklyn Academy of Music, starring Nathan Lane and Brian Dennehy, remained endlessly compelling right up to the bitter end thanks to the skill of the performers and the unwavering hand of director Robert Falls. While the entire ensemble was excellent, Lane and Dennehy were the standouts, with both actors at the top of their game and Lane in particular proving why he is one of the industry's most invaluable character actors. Lane's deeply felt portrayal of tragic jokester Hickey was an expertly handled balancing act between easygoing charm and frightening pathos, and should the briefly rumored Broadway transfer ever materialize it would almost certainly net the actor his 3rd Tony Award.

6) The Visit

The Visit on Broadway was every bit as bizarre as this picture suggests, and all the better for it.

By all rights, The Visit shouldn't exist. This problem-plagued musical, originally conceived as a vehicle for Angela Lansbury back in 2000 before being retooled for perpetual Kander and Ebb muse Chita Rivera, was revised multiple times following multiple out of town tryouts and false starts that continually delayed plans for a Broadway premiere. Add to the behind the scenes drama the seemingly off-putting subject matter (the world's richest woman returns to her hometown with two eunuchs in tow, offering to solve all the town's financial troubles in exchange for the execution of her former lover), and only a very brave group of producers would have even considered backing the eventual Broadway mounting. Thank goodness they did, for while the show failed to find any commercial success, it was so gloriously strange and surreal that it will certainly to stick with those lucky enough to see it for many years to come. Kander and Ebb's final score is not as instantly memorable as their work on Cabaret or Chicago but is their most artistically mature, and John Doyle's sparse production only sharpened and clarified the narrative's otherworldly feeling. Like Kander and Ebb's best work, The Visit refused to pander to its audience, instead consistently challenging its viewers while at the same time remaining decadently entertaining and thrillingly unpredictable.



Be sure to check back tomorrow for Part II of my list!

2015 Tony Awards React

Kelli O'Hara poses backstage with her newly acquired, long overdue Best Actress Tony Award. All is right with the Broadway community.

SHE FINALLY WON!!!!!

Sorry, had to get that out of the way. My love of Kelli O'Hara is well documented, as is my belief that she should have won a Tony Award long ago. But as they say, better late than never, and now that she is finally "Tony Award-winner Kelli O'Hara" we can focus on my other thoughts about this year's Tony winners and live telecast.

For those who are keeping score, this year I correctly predicted 11 of the 17 categories discussed on this blog for a rather unimpressive 65% accuracy rating (for the complete list of winner, check here). The featured acting categories are what really screwed me over, as I failed to correctly predict a single winner from any of them. I will take solace in the fact the featured categories were some of the most contested races of the evening, with insider opinion very split over who would actually walk away a winner. And honestly, while I enjoy being right, seeing the award races play out exactly how they're expected to doesn't make for a very good telecast.

Here are some more of my thoughts on this year's Tony Awards, broken down by subject:

Winners

A visibly moved Annaleigh Ashford thanked "everyone she's ever met" while accepting her Best Featured Actress Tony for You Can't Take It With You, in one of the many charming acceptance speeches from last night's awards.

I have never been more happy to be wrong than when Kelli O'Hara's name was announced for Best Actress last night. I and many others thought Kristin Chenoweth would win for her flashier performance in On the Twentieth Century, once again keeping O'Hara from the recognition she so rightly deserves. And don't get me wrong, because Chenoweth certainly gives a Tony worthy performance in the Roundabout revival, but O'Hara is positively radiant in The King and I and long overdue for Broadway's highest honor. Seeing the visibly moved O'Hara receive a standing ovation was the highlight of the evening, and I loved everything about O'Hara's acceptance speech ("I don't need this, but now that I have it I've got some things to say").

I do think cutting to Chenoweth immediately after O'Hara's speech was a little awkward. Yes, the pint sized diva was the co-host of the evening, but the bit about her being upset at her loss hit a little too close to home. After winning most of the industry awards this year for a show that is clearly close to her heart, Chenoweth understandably was disappointed and maybe should have been allowed at least a commercial break to regain her composure.

Also, congratulations to both Annaleigh Ashford and Ruthie Ann Miles on their well deserved Featured Actress wins. Both are incredibly talented performers who have been paying their dues in steadily higher profile gigs, and it was wonderful to see their excitement and gratitude for their somewhat surprise wins. I do think Miles (whom I *adored*) benefited from voters being forced to pick which of the three Fun Home actresses they liked the most, splitting the votes enough to allow her to win. It's hard not to be a little disappointed for Judy Kuhn, who is probably overdue for a Tony and will hopefully win one in the next few years. And as Sydney Lucas proved with her incredible performance of "Ring of Keys" she is certainly a force to be reckoned with, and should she continue to pursue the theatre I foresee several more nominations in her future.

I'm happy to say I overwhelmingly approve of this year's winners. I'm glad to see that Tony voters weren't scared off by Fun Home's more challenging subject matter, and to see that chamber musical's all female writing team honored with nods for both book and score was wonderful (now if only their speeches had been televised). The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time was by far my favorite play of the season and I'm thrilled for all the recognition it received, even if I personally thought Hand to God's Steven Boyer was *slightly* more deserving of the Best Actor trophy than the still phenomenal Alex Sharp.

The only category that actively upset me was Christian Borle's frankly undeserved Featured Actor win for Something Rotten!, as the actor's incredibly selfish performance has no relation to the rest of the cast. Why is he the only one with an accent? Why does he only ever talk at other characters rather than to them? Why does his self indulgent preening lack the self-aware edge of the rest of the show's humor???? Most upsetting of all is the fact that Borle, who has proven himself rather versatile over the years (see his work on Smash, the NBC live musicals, or even the MTV telecast of Legally Blonde), has chosen to essentially reprise his Tony wining Peter and the Starcatcher character for Rotten. I would have seen the award go to literally anyone else in this category.

The Hosts

Say what you will about Kristin Chenoweth, but she is not afraid to make herself look stupid in pursuit of a laugh.

I think we were always aware of what a superb host Neil Patrick Harris is, but the two years since the charming star's last Tony hosting gig have proven what a difficult act he is to follow. The telecast producers clearly had trouble locking down a host; typically he or she is announced several months in advance, but we didn't find out Alan Cumming and Kristin Chenoweth would be co-hosting until the day before the nominations came out. And while both Tony winners are charming individually, they were clearly underprepared, most likely due to Chenoweth's busy schedule. Between performing On the Twentieth Century eight times a week and attending all of the press events and awards luncheons that come with being a Tony nominee, Chenoweth likely didn't have a lot of time or energy to devote to the telecast, and unfortunately it showed in how few of the hosts' jokes landed.

At least Chenoweth was game to try anything and seemed happy to be there; Cumming often looked like his mind was on something else. Harris may be gun shy about hosting after the scathing reviews he received for this year's Oscar ceremony (which, in typical NPH fashion, the Tony presenter managed to acknowledge and mock in a way that didn't seem uncomfortable or bitter), but I hope next year's Tony host(s) at least have enough time to find their grove. Chenoweth and Cumming seemed to be encountering a lot of their material for the first time, and their costume-based bits forced categories like Best Book and Score to be presented during commercial breaks instead of on air like they belong.

The Performances

11-year-old Sydney Lucas dazzled during her performance of "Ring of Keys" from 2015 Best Musical winner Fun Home, proving beyond a doubt that she earned her Best Featured Actress nomination this year.

Honestly, these were all over the map and generally disappointing. Broadway show producers, repeat after me: NO MORE MEDLEYS. Medleys rely on the audience's familiarity with the material to supply a lot of the context, something you cannot count on unless you have a very well known revival (we're talking Sound of Music/West Side Story levels of pop culture saturation) or a preexisting score of pop songs (which were originally designed to be stand alone pieces before being shoehorned into a stage show). Pick your show's best, most accessible number, use your allotted 30 second introduction to set it up, and go with it. If that means one or more of your Tony nominated leads gets left out of the number, so be it. I'm sure they would prefer the increased exposure and ticket sales a well-executed Tony number brings to a minute or two of TV time.

Very few of this year's performances came across as well as they do in the theatre. Fun Home worked because they picked a single, complete song that doesn't require extensive knowledge of the show's plot to follow (and also because Sydney Lucas is amazing). The King & I got away with the medley format because of the incredible, enduring popularity of the Rodgers & Hammerstein cannon both as complete shows and as stand alone musical numbers. On the Twentieth Century came across as manic and disjointed because they tried to cram not one, not two, but FOUR separate songs into their allotted 4 minute time slot; the resulting performance didn't do justice to the production or Kristin Chenoweth's central performance, both of which are significantly better and less forced than what was shown on TV.

The placement of the numbers is important as well, although this falls more on the telecast producers than the shows themselves. Something Rotten's showstopping "A Musical" came across as oddly subdued on the telecast, possibly because it took place right after Chenoweth and Cumming's low-key opening number. And unfortunately, some musicals just lack any songs that can be readily enjoyed out of context, which is why the excellent The Visit seemed so bizarre and off-putting on television (in the theatre, the show is still very bizarre, but delightfully so).

I will give the telecast producers this: they mercifully cut the ill-conceived preview numbers from last year, both of which made me *less* interested in the shows they were meant to advertise. And while the announcement of Josh Groban's scheduled performance initially raised eyebrows (how many acceptance speeches would be moved to commercial to accommodate here), I was pleasantly surprised when it was revealed he was singing over the reinstated "In Memorium" segment. The Jersey Boys performance was unsurprisingly boring and exceedingly unnecessary, but having them sing over the credits didn't steal anyone's speech time or production number slot, so I say no harm, no foul.


And there you have it. The 2015 Tony Awards are now on the records books, and the 2015-2016 Broadway season is already in swing with the just opened Jim Parsons vehicle An Act of God. Please keep following this blog for theatre reviews and opinions throughout the year, and check back next May to see what shows and performers are up for next year's awards (I have a feeling this Hamilton show will do alright for itself).

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

It all comes down to this. On Sunday, the American Theatre Wing will crown the latest crop of Tony Award winners, representing the best and brightest of the Broadway theatre season. As the industry's highest honor, the Tonys prompt huge amounts of speculation every season, as winning can provide the boost needed to send an actor's career to the next level or ensure a struggling production runs long enough to turn a profit. 

There are only two categories remaining in my annual Tony predictions, and they are the two biggest: Best Play and Best Musical. More than any other award, a win in one of these categories can mark the turning point where an obscure property becomes a long-running, oft produced hit. It automatically generates more interest in the ticket buying public, and specifically for musicals can be the different between turning a profit and closing at a loss. (For a case in point, last year's well reviewed A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder struggled at the box office until winning the Best Musical prize, and has since recouped its investment.) So which new play and musical will have the honor of being selected as Broadway's best? Find out below.

Warning: Occasional snark and major speculation to follow.

Best Play

Alex Sharp in one of the many visually stunning scenes from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

Nominees: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Disgraced; Hand to God; Wolf Hall Parts I & II

What does it say about the Tony Awards when Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced is the least competitive Best Play nominee? The implications of that could fill an entire blog post on their own, but what it primarily says is that having your show running during voting season is almost essential to winning. Tony voters don't have the longest memories, and in a competitive season such as this the probing Muslim-American drama just couldn't find the traction to stick with voters past its March 1st closing date.

The other three contenders are all currently running and each has its champions, although there seems to be less fervor surrounding the Royal Shakespeare Company's Wolf Hall double bill. Which leaves London import The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time and scrappy underdog Hand to God to battle it out for the big prize, with the former the clear favorite. Curious Incident, in addition to being the most visually stunning play of the season, is a well written and cleverly nuanced coming of age story about an autistic youth, wonderfully embodied by likely Best Actor winner Alex Sharp. It has also won every Best Play award of the season, an uninterrupted winning streak that is hard to ignore.

Yet you can't completely dismiss Hand to God and its passionate supporters, who would love to see a wholly American play take this award (although given the last 3 Best Play winners were all home grown successes, it's getting harder to argue the Tonys are biased towards British imports). An edgy, unpredictable work, Hand to God ultimately becomes so focused on shocking the audience it loses sight of its thematic core. Playwright Robert Askins clearly has something to say, but you get the impression he hasn't quite figured out how to say it, whereas Curious Incident knows exactly what it wants to communicate and does so beautifully. While I won't entirely rule out a Hand to God upset, I think Curious Incident both deserves and will win this award for combining a beautiful script about an important subject with a highly inventive, top tier production.

Will & Should Win: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Musical

The three different incarnations of Alison Bechdel, the lesbian cartoonist whose graphic memoir inspired the boundary pushing chamber musical Fun Home.

Nominees: An American in Paris; Fun Home; Something Rotten!; The Visit

Of the four Best Musical nominees, I probably got the most enjoyment out of watching the frankly insane The Visit unapologetically tell its story of love, greed and revenge. But as fascinating as Kander and Ebb's final show is, it definitely has the smallest chance of winning here, scoring only half as many nominations as any of its competitors. A couple months ago, word on the street was that Something Rotten! would be the musical to beat this season, but its disappointing showing at the other industry awards makes it look less competitive than it once did. I suspect the show is a little too derivative of past Tony winners Spamalot and The Producers to really impress the voters, but given its recent million dollar weeks I think the show will run regardless of what happens Sunday night.

This race will ultimately come down to An American in Paris versus Fun Home, and it remains almost too close to call. Fun Home is the more prestigious of the two shows, both better constructed and better realized. Yet something about the show left me cold, and even though I appreciated the piece's ambition and the skill of all involved, I wasn't moved by it the way I expected to be. There is also the question of whether the road producers are willing to vote for a dark, challenging musical about a lesbian cartoonist and her closeted father when they could vote for a crowd pleasing dance show packed with familiar Gershwin tunes that will surely pack their regional houses. The other industry awards don't provide much indication as to which way voters are leaning, as Fun Home's Off-Broadway run occurred last season and therefore the two shows have not been in direct competition (Fun Home dominated last year, while American in Paris has been riding high this year).

Until a couple of days ago, I would have predicted a victory for An American in Paris. But as I write this, I really think the voters will do the right thing and vote Fun Home the Best Musical of 2015. It is certainly better written, and arguably better performed (although the American in Paris cast is quite talented). And recent Tony voting patterns show that many of the supposed obstacles to a Fun Home victory aren't really issues at all. Kinky Boots' win and subsequent success across the country proves that road voters and audiences aren't inherently terrified of "gay" shows, although the glitzy drag musical is a much more sanitized and widely appealing production. And if the road producers vote strictly for the most commercial production, last year would have seen Beautiful or Aladdin triumph over Gentleman's Guide. So at the last minute, I am changing my official prediction from American in Paris to Fun Home, and hoping that the Tony voters don't disappoint me.

Will & Should Win: Fun Home
Incredibly Close Second Where Winning Odds Are Concerned: An American in Paris


And there you have it. Those are my official predictions for the 2014-2015 Tony season. Check back on Monday to see my thoughts on this year's winners and the Tony telecast itself, and be sure to check out any of the coverage you may have missed below.

Nominations React
Best Book & Score
Best Direction & Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Revival

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

With the unofficial start of summer this past Monday, we are now less than 2 weeks away from Broadway's biggest night: the Tony Awards! As I do every year, I am doing my best to predict who will come out on top during the June 7th telecast, and since I've already discussed the writing, direction, and the featured performer races, it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress categories. The pinnacle of recognition for any performer, these are inevitably some of the most hotly debated and contested races of any given season.

As always, my predictions are focused on who will win, not who is my personal favorite. If there is a major discrepancy, I will be sure to point it out, as there are all sorts of factors that can influence someone's Tony chances besides the quality of their work. So without further ado, let's dive into the Best Actor races to see who will get to add a shiny new award to their mantel next Sunday.

Best Actor in a Play

Alex Sharp hadn't even officially graduated from the Julliard Drama School when he was cast in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, and now he is one of the front runners for Best Actor in a Play.

Nominees: Steven Boyer, Hand to God; Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man; Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Bill Nighy, Skylight; Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Heading into awards season, this appeared to be the most competitive of all the acting categories, so I'm surprised to see only five nominees here despite plenty of deserving candidates. It's difficult to argue against any of these gentlemen, who all received universally good reviews and a few outright raves. Even Bradley Cooper, who would normally be at a disadvantage as the only nominee not currently performing on Broadway, remains a legitimate contender for the title.

The two names I would be most surprised to hear called on Tony Sunday are Ben Miles and Bill Nighy, but that doesn't mean either can be totally discounted. Miles is the central figure in the much lauded Wolf Hall double bill, but the excitement for that show seems to be focused on the production as a whole rather than any particular member of its sprawling ensemble. And while Nighy has been roundly praised for his work in Skylight, the general feeling towards that revival seems to be an intellectual respect rather than emotional excitement; the play may be a little too highbrow to get much attention in a season with so many electrifying performances. And while the aforementioned Cooper definitely has a shot, I do think the fact that The Elephant Man closed month ago will ultimately keep him from claiming victory.

Which leaves us with Steven Boyer and Alex Sharp, two unknowns giving perhaps the most exciting performances of the season. Boyer's work in Hand to God is mindblowingly good, a masterclass of physicality that allows the psychotic hand puppet Tyrone to emerge as one of the breakout characters of the season. The fact that Boyer manages to balance Tyrone's unfiltered id with host Jason's shy, soft-spoken manner is a jaw-dropping accomplishment that in my opinion is more than Tony worthy. That said, I think voters will go with Sharp's deeply felt portrayal of an autistic teen in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, as the recent Julliard grad anchors that dazzling play with a heart and gravitas that keeps the impressive production design from overwhelming the narrative. But I'm still rooting for Boyer, especially if it means the foul-mouthed Tyrone makes an appearance on the Tony telecast.

Will Win: Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Should Win: Steven Boyer, Hand to God

Best Actor in a Musical

Michael Cerveris gives what he describes as his most emotionally draining performance to date in Fun Home, the Pulitzer Prize finalist transfer from the acclaimed Public Theatre.

Nominees: Michael Cervaris, Fun Home; Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris; Brian d'Arcy James, Something Rotten!; Ken Watanabe, The King and I; Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

This category is an exciting mix of established and emerging talent, with over half the nominees competing for their first ever Tony Award; Robert Fairchild and Ken Watanabe even have the added excitement of being nominated for their Broadway debuts. The five nominees are also all currently performing on Broadway, which makes this as close to a fair fight as we're ever going to get when it comes to the Tonys.

As much as I adored Tony Yazbeck's work in On the Town, I just don't think the triple threat can compete with some of the showier performances in this category. Robert Fairchild received a nice set of reviews, with everyone agreeing the NY City Ballet principal is a naturally talented actor/singer in addition to his unrivaled dancing abilities. That said, I'm not sure the Broadway community is quite ready to award a newcomer the industry's highest honor. And while I was highly impressed with Ken Watanabe's utterly charming work in The King and I, enough people had trouble understanding the Japanese-born actor's accent that he faces an uphill battle in order to win this race.

Brian d'Arcy James is such an established talent in the theatrical community that it is easy to forget the golden-voiced character actor has yet to win a Tony Award. James definitely anchors Something Rotten! with a performance that is funny, sincere, and more than accommodating to his scenery chewing costars, making him a major contender for this award. But previous Tony-winner Michael Cerveris completely disappears inside the nebbish, deeply conflicted Bruce Bechdel in Fun Home, and not just because he is nearly unrecognizable in Paul Huntley's 1970's period wig. Cerveris is giving an actor's performance, layered and nuanced and emotionally vulnerable, all the things you think of when you imagine award winning work. Lisa Kron's book and Jeanine Tesori's score also give Cerveris more to play than any of the other nominees, which makes Cerveris the front-runner and likely winner.

Will & Should Win: Michael Cerveris, Fun Home


Check back on Monday for my predictions on what is probably the most closely watched, hotly debated race of the entire season: Best Actress in a Musical. In the meantime, get caught up on all my previous Tony coverage below:

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

As the 2015 Tony Awards creep ever closer, my annual predictions have now entered the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production awards seem to be the most coveted of all Tonys, particularly from an advertising perspective. They also tend to provoke the most speculation and lead to the closest races of any given season, and this year's crop of nominees is no different. While doing my best to predict who will actually win, I will also be sure to point out if I think there is a more deserving performer in danger of being overlooked. Of course, anything can happen on Tony Sunday (the Featured categories are a hotbed for surprise nominees and winners), but as of right now, here are my best guesses as to who will go home victorious on June 7th.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Lydia Leonard (right) with fellow Tony nominee Ben Miles in the Royal Shakespeare Company's Wolf Hall.

Nominees: Annaleigh Ashford, You Can't Take It With You; Patricia Clarkson, The Elephant Man; Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Sarah Stiles, Hand to God; Julie White, Airline Highway

Just like their male counterparts, this season's Featured Actress in a Play nominees find themselves in a wide open race. As with her costar K. Todd Freeman, I think Julie White will be severely handicapped by the fact that Airline Highway has almost no awards momentum (it failed to make the cut for Best Play); also, as a previous Tony winner White may be held back by voters who prefer to spread the love. Meanwhile, while Sarah Stiles has one knockout scene in Hand to God along with several supporting bits, I expect her to be overlooked in favor of an actress whose role is a little more fleshed out.

Annaleigh Ashford was hysterical in last fall's You Can't Take It With You, and the widely publicized story of how she performed on pointe despite breaking her toe during rehearsals will certainly earn her some brownie points. But Ashford's show opened and closed a long time ago, a major handicap I don't think her well-liked performance can quite overcome. She is still a dark horse candidate, but I think her chances would be greater if the show had lasted until March or April rather than early February.

Patricia Clarkson and Lydia Leonard are in the best position here, as although they are competing in the "Featured" category both are in practice the female leads of their respective shows (a situation that helped The Book of Mormon's Nikki M. James win her Tony Award back in 2011). Clarkson's show has been closed since mid-February, but thanks to the buzz surrounding Bradley Cooper's performance as the titular Elephant Man I expect most voters saw and remembered her performance. But Lydia Leonard is a Shakespearean actress in a critically acclaimed, two part period drama which provides her nearly twice the material as any of her competitors, which is a pretty hard combination to beat. I expect this is ultimately her race to lose.

Will and Should Win: Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts I & II


 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Judy Kuhn (left) and fellow Featured Actress Tony nominee Sydney Lucas in the Broadway transfer of Fun Home.

Nominees: Victoria Clark, Gigi; Judy Kuhn, Fun Home; Sydney Lucas, Fun Home; Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I; Emily Skeggs, Fun Home

It's lovely Victoria Clark has received her fourth career Tony nomination this year (even if I personally would rather have seen On the Town's Alysha Umphress in this spot). That said, I don't think she has a snowball's chance in hell of actually winning, with the main question in this race being whether or not the three Fun Home actresses cancel one another out and allow Ruthie Ann Miles to complete the ultimate Cinderella story and win a Tony Award for her Broadway debut.

Pitting the Fun Home actresses against one another forces voters to pick a favorite, something that is incredibly difficult and will likely split votes. Judy Kuhn, Emily Skeggs, and young Sydney Lucas all do fantastic work in the chamber musical, each providing some excellent scene work capped off by the score's three best songs (Kuhn's "Days and Days," Skeggs' "Changing My Major," and Lucas' "Ring of Keys"). The incredibly talented Lucas has one of the largest and most important roles in the show, as her scenes with Michael Cerveris form the dramatic crux of the evening and the key to understanding both characters. But Kuhn is practically a theatrical institution, with three previous nominations but no wins to her name, and although her character doesn't say much the actress makes every syllable count. Furthermore, her interpretation of the aforementioned "Days and Days" is some of the most accomplished musical acting currently on Broadway.

In fact, Kuhn is probably the biggest threat to Miles, and I can honestly see the race going either way. Unfortunately the other theatrical awards don't provide much insight into how voters may be leaning, as Kuhn's award-winning work in Fun Home's Off-Broadway production last season made her ineligible this year, clearing the way for Miles to win an Outer Critics Circle Award earlier this month. I personally would favor Miles, as her "Something Wonderful" is every bit as marvelous as Kuhn's big number, with the added bonus that Miles has comparatively more to do and imbues every move her character makes with a multitude of meanings. But if the industry's already established love of Kuhn leads to them honoring the Broadway veteran with her first Tony Award, I couldn't reasonably complain.

Will Win: Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Should Win: Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I


And that wraps up my predictions for the Featured performances, which are the categories that usually bring down my batting average on Tony night. Check back on Friday as I begin to tackle the Lead Actor and Actress categories. You can also catch up on all my previous Tony coverage below, and be sure to check back every Monday and Friday from now until the telecast for more updates!

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor

2015 Tony Predictions: Direction and Choreography

The 2015 Tony Awards are less than 3 weeks away, and all of Broadway is buzzing with speculation over who will be victorious come June 7th. Predicting Tony winners just so happens to be one of my favorite pastimes, and so I'm continuing my coverage of this year's ceremony by doing my best to select the people and productions most likely to walk away with that spinning statuette on Tony Sunday. Of course, the people who *will* win are not always the people who *deserve* to win, so I will also make sure to point out when I think the probable winner doesn't match up with the most deserving person/production. I've already discussed the musical writing awards, so now we move on to the people who tell the actors where to go and what to do: the directors and choreographers.

Best Direction of a Play

Tony nominee Alex Sharp (r) and Enid Graham in a scene from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

Nominees: Stephen Daldry, Skylight; Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Scott Ellis, You Can't Take It With You; Jeremy Herrin, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Moritz von Stuelpnagel, Hand to God

"It's a honor just to be nominated" sounds horribly cliche, but anyone in this category not named Marianne Elliott should definitely remember such tried and true advice come Broadway's big night. Elliott has helmed the most visually stunning play in several seasons, and much of The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's dazzle comes specifically from her staging rather than from the equally impressive production design (which is virtually guaranteed to win some Tonys on its own). Not only that, but Elliott somehow managed to keep her bold and daring staging in service of the story rather than letting it overwhelm the narrative, something a lesser director would surely struggle with.

The other productions in this category have been mostly praised for their top-notch acting, something the director definitely helps mold but is ultimately the creation of the performer (no matter how good a director Hand to God's Moritz von Stuelpnagel may be, you can't teach just anyone to do what Steven Boyer does in that show). Unfortunately for Stephen Daldry, Scott Ellis, and Jeremy Herrin, you have a put a pretty distinct directorial stamp on a show to be a true Tony contender, and their strengths this season lie primarily in getting out of the material's way rather than imposing their will upon it. This is Elliott's award to lose.

Will and Should Win: Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Direction of a Musical

The Bechdel family, the enigmatic clan at the certain of Off-Broadway transfer (and 2014 Pulitzer Prize finalist) Fun Home.

Nominees: Sam Gold, Fun Home; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; John Rando, On the Town; Bartlett Sher, The King and I; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

Now this is a tight race, and one that could conceivably go to any of the five highly deserving nominees. I'm going to go ahead and rule out both Casey Nicholaw and Christopher Wheeldon, as I suspect that should voters want to honor either gentleman they will do so in the Best Choreography category while using this race to recognize someone who is not a double nominee. And while I having nothing but respect for John Rando's refreshing, exuberant work on what many considered a hopelessly dated show, I don't think the On the Town director has a very good shot at winning such a competitive category.

Which leaves Sam Gold and Bartlett Sher, who are so neck and neck that you might as well toss a coin to determine the winner. Both helmed universally acclaimed spring productions that are still fresh in everyone's minds, and both shows owe a large part of their success to their excellent direction. The oft-performed King and I could easily have seemed tired and/or dated, but as Sher did with South Pacific several seasons ago the Tony-winning director has stripped any hint of artifice from the Rodgers and Hammerstein classic and allowed us to see the show afresh. Meanwhile, Gold has done absolutely extraordinary things with Fun Home, reimagining his Off-Broadway staging so completely that you would swear the entire piece was originally conceived and produced in the round. Gold has also guided his small cast to universally excellent performances that stick with you long after the final curtain, with several of his actors up for Tony Awards themselves.

Personally, I would vote for Sher, because ultimately The King and I affected and engaged me in a way Fun Home did not. Despite the many admirable elements of the Off-Broadway transfer, I couldn't connect with the characters on an emotional level even though their lives and concerns more closely mirrored my own experiences than Anna Leonowens' trip to Siam. However, I will fully admit that I seem to be in the minority regarding Fun Home's emotional effectiveness, which I think will ultimately be enough to give Gold the edge.

Will Win: Sam Gold, Fun Home
Should Win: Bartlett Sher, The King and I

Best Choreography

Tony nominees Leanne Cope and Robert Fairchild in one of many pas de deuxs they share in An American in Paris.

Nominees: Joshua Bergasse, On the Town; Christopher Gattelli, The King and I; Scott Graham and Stephen Hoggart, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

This is where I expect Tony voters will acknowledge all of Christopher Wheeldon's work on An American in Paris, one of the season's biggest surprises. Even disregarding its status as the most nominated musical of the season, by all accounts Paris is an enormous dance show with incredibly demanding choreography that is expertly realized by Wheeldon's top notch dancers. It's refreshing to see a new musical that places such an emphasis on dance, an art form that has been distressingly sparse on Broadway in recent years.

The downside to Wheeldon's likely win is that it doesn't leave room for acknowledgement of Joshua Bergasse's incredible choreography for On the Town. Most producers and directors would have trimmed or even cut at least some of the massive dance numbers when reviving On the Town for modern audiences, but thanks to Bergasse the revival's dancing is its strongest suit. Playful yet precise, Bergasse's dances call to mind the inventive whimsy of multiple Tony-winner Susan Stroman, and hopefully this Broadway newcomer will stick around for many years to come.

Bergasse is also the only legitimate threat to Wheeldon; previous winner Casey Nicholaw's Something Rotten! seems to be suffering from a bit of backlash (it didn't win a single Outer Critic's Circle Award despite having more nominations than any other production), and The King and I just doesn't have enough choreography for Christopher Gattelli to legitimately compete with shows literally overflowing with dance. And giving the Best Choreography Tony to a play in a season which saw such a high volume of traditional dancing is so unlikely that it hardly merits discussion.

Will and Should Win: Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris
Who I'd Like to Win Anyway: Joshua Beragsse, On the Town


Keep checking back in the coming weeks for more Tony predictions (updates hopefully every Monday and Friday). In my next post I'll delve into the acting awards, and until then you can read all of my previous Tony predictions below:

Tony Nominee React
Best Book and Score

2015 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Now that the dust from the nominations announcement has settled and we know exactly who will be competing for this year's Tony Awards, it's time to play the industry's favorite game: Guess the Winners. You can't get more than two theatre people in the same room at this time of year without at least some discussion of who's going to win Broadway's highest honor, and Broadway Etc is here to help cut through the noise and give you one educated theatregoer's best predictions.

The secret to correctly predicting Tony winners is the ability to distinguish between personal feelings of who should win and focus on who has the momentum and buzz to actually win, which are by no means the same thing. I've previously discussed what I consider some of the most egregious Tony oversights, and there's bound to be at least one surprise winner come June 7th, especially with so many deserving nominees in several extremely close races. As always, I will start with predicting the behind the scenes awards like writing and direction before seguing into the more high profile performance categories and eventually the closely watched production races. And should I sense that the likely winner doesn't align with my preferred choice, I will be sure to point that out.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Book of a Musical

Sydney Lucas, Beth Malone, and Emily Skeggs (all Tony nominees this season) in Fun Home.

Nominees: Craig Lucas, An American in Paris; Lisa Kron, Fun Home; Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell, Something Rotten!; Terrance McNally, The Visit

The interesting thing about the new musical races is they distinguish between a show's writing and the actual production, whereas the Best Play award doubles as both a production and writing honor. Tony voters have often used this distinction as a way to recognize more artistically daring shows while still naming a crowd pleaser Best Musical (see: Ragtime vs. The Lion King, Urinetown vs. Thoroughly Modern Millie). There has been much debate over whether the critically acclaimed Fun Home can overcome the perceived handicap of its subject matter (weighty issues like homosexuality and suicide) to become a popular hit, which at this point is likely the universally praised show's biggest obstacle on the road to Tony glory.

Which is where the Best Book award comes in, as it is very difficult to argue there is better writing among this year's musicals than Lisa Kron's nuanced take on a young woman coming to terms with her own identity. There are certainly charms to Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell's work on Something Rotten!, but the show ultimately succumbs to structural issues in the second act that keep it from being a serious awards contender. The surreal musical The Visit has failed to gain much momentum despite the theatrical heavyweights behind it, and while Craig Lucas has an outside chance of winning for his work on the increasingly popular An American in Paris I think voters will ultimately choose to honor Kron. (The fact that Kron's work helped make Fun Home a finalist for the 2014 Pulitzer Prize certainly doesn't hurt her chances).

Will & Should Win: Lisa Kron, Fun Home

Best Original Score

Young Alison experiences a rare moment of bonding with her elusive father in Fun Home, one of the most nominated shows of the season.

Nominees: Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron, Fun Home; Sting, The Last Ship; Wayne Kirkpatrick and Karey Kirkpatrick, Something Rotten!; John Kander and Fred Ebb, The Visit

It is a rare artist who reaches Jeanine Tesori's level of industry notoriety without receiving a Tony Award. There is likely a feeling among voters that she is overdue for Broadway's highest honor, and it looks like this may be the year the adventurous, boundary pushing composer finally takes home the big prize. Her expertly written Fun Home score covers an enormous range of emotions and musical styles in the course of the show's single act, without ever feeling disjointed or pieced together. While the universally admired Kander and Ebb have written a very good score for their final collaboration The Visit, it seems unlikely to result in another career Tony Award for the esteemed pair. And while there's no denying the cleverness of the Kirkpatrick brothers' lyrics for the irreverent Something Rotten!, with the exception of the extremely catchy opening number not many of the songs in that score really stick with you past the final curtain. In fact, I'd argue Tesori's biggest competition comes from Grammy-winning Broadway newcomer Sting, whose score for The Last Ship is a similarly nuanced and ethereal piece of composing. But Tesori's score has more breadth, and her show a more important milestone in the development of the musical artform, which means she and lyricist Lisa Kron will likely be the ones making the trip to the podium on Tony Sunday

Will & Should Win: Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron, Fun Home


That's all for today, but stay tuned for many more Tony predictions in the weeks to come. Next up, I discuss the nominees for Best Direction and Choreography, and in the meantime you can catch up on my previous coverage of this year's show below.

2015 Tony Nominee React

2015 Tony Nominee React

Bruce Willis (who will make his Broadway debut in the fall) and Mary-Louise Parker (a past Tony-winner for her work in Proof) announce the 2015 Tony Award nominees. 

They're here! After weeks of speculation, we finally know which productions and performers will be competing for the 2015 Tony Awards. You can view a full list of the nominees here, but to check out how I did with my predictions see the list below. Asterisks indicate correction predictions, and asterisks in parentheses indicate a wildcard pick that made the final cut.

Best Play

*The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
(*)Disgraced
*Hand to God
*Wolf Hall Parts One & Two

Best Musical

*An American in Paris
*Fun Home
*Something Rotten!
*The Visit

Best Revival of a Play

*The Elephant Man
*Skylight
This Is Our Youth
*You Can’t Take It with You

Best Revival of a Musical

*The King and I
*On the Town
*On the Twentieth Century

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

*Steven Boyer, Hand to God
*Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man
*Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two
*Bill Nighy, Skylight
*Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

*Geneva Carr, Hand to God
*Helen Mirren, The Audience
*Elisabeth Moss, The Heidi Chronicles
*Carey Mulligan, Skylight
*Ruth Wilson, Constellations

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

*Michael Cerveris, Fun Home
*Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris
*Brian d’Arcy James, Something Rotten!
*Ken Watanabe, The King and I
*Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

*Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century
*Leanne Cope, An American in Paris
*Beth Malone, Fun Home
*Kelli O’Hara, The King and I
*Chita Rivera, The Visit

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Matthew Beard, Skylight
K. Todd Freeman, Airline Highway
Richard McCabe, The Audience
Alessandro Nivola, The Elephant Man
*Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two
Micah Stock, It’s Only a Play

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

*Annaleigh Ashford, You Can’t Take It with You
Patricia Clarkson, The Elephant Man
*Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two
Sarah Stiles, Hand to God
Julie White, Airline Highway

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

*Christian Borle, Something Rotten!
*Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
*Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!
Brandon Uranowitz, An American in Paris
*Max von Essen, An American in Paris

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Victoria Clark, Gigi
*Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Sydney Lucas, Fun Home
*Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I
Emily Skeggs, Fun Home



I may rethink my decision to attempt predicting the Featured Actor/Actress nominees next year, because they really dragged down my accuracy rating. Overall, I correctly predicted 75% of the nominees (77% if you count my wildcard pick of Disgraced for Best Play as correct). Had I stopped at the production and the lead actor races, I would have had a 97% success rate, with the only thing preventing a perfect score being the surprise inclusion of This Is Out Youth in the Best Play Revival category.

Of course, all of this comes with the caveat that in almost every case the Tony committee nominated less people than I was expecting, which is probably the most surprising thing about this year's nominations. It definitively proves that the committee has no desire to honor the maximum number of nominees just because they can, and that last year's narrower than expected Best Musical race was no fluke. On the one hand, I like that this philosphy retains the prestige of an actual nomination - they automatically mean more if less people get them - but on the other hand it leaves a lot of deserving people out in the cold. In general, I have to say I don't mind the committee's selectiveness, as there aren't any overlooked productions or performances I feel strongly about...

...except in the Featured categories, in which the nominations generally came from out of left field and included a whole host of people that weren't on anyone's radar. In retrospect, I should have foreseen the critical adulation of The Elephant Man placing Patricia Clarkson and Alessandro Nivola into contention (how "Jim Parsons-lite" Micah Stock managed to sneak in there remains a mystery). But in general, I feel the cast of On the Town got snubbed, both the men and the women. That revival is packed from top to bottom with fantastic performances, and the fact that only Tony Yazbeck (who is beyond deserving) got nominated is suspicious to me.

I have always maintained that for an actor to be snubbed, there needs to be at least one nominee you would be willing to bump to make room for your preferred performer. I'm going to be somewhat controversial here and nominate Victoria Clark as that person, as I would have much preferred my beloved Alysha Umphress or her costar Elizabeth Stanley in that slot. While I have not seen Gigi, I did see Clark's last two Tony-nominated performances in Sister Act and Cinderella, and in both shows she gave perfectly lovely performances that in no way matched the tone or spirit of the piece she was in. Given what I've read about Gigi, I suspect the same thing has happened again, and while there is something to be said about ensuring your performance is good regardless of the production quality, there is more to be said for being a team player. Both Umphress and Stanley (and their male counterparts, Jay Armstrong Johnson and Clyde Alves) are consummate team players, and it's a shame none of them were rewarded for their efforts.

Other thoughts:

-Something Rotten! better watch out, as its presumptive Best Musical win is now seriously in jeopardy. Both Fun Home and American in Paris scored more nominations, which means that Ben Brantley might not be the only guy in town who was underwhelmed by the showbiz satire.

-This year's tightest race remains Best Actress in a Musical, with Kristin Chenoweth and Kelli O'Hara giving sensational performances in two very different shows. I lean towards O'Hara because in addition to being perfection, she should really just have a Tony already, but I have to admit that if I were a Tony voter I might have to give it to Chenoweth for a flashier performance that exceeded all expectations. (I still love you, Kelli!)

-I'm absolutely thrilled for Brad Oscar, who I thought was joke for joke the funniest cast member of Something Rotten! I'm glad to see he wasn't completely overshadowed by his flashier costar Christian Borle, who like the aforementioned Victoria Clark has a tendency to have an acting style that doesn't really relate to his costars.

-There was a time a few months ago when several people were predicting that Finding Neverland and Doctor Zhivago would be the shows to beat this spring (for the record, I was *not* one of those people). Neither show received a single nomination.

-I am saddened but not surprised to see Honeymoon in Vegas completely excluded from the nominations. I highly enjoyed that production, and I hope that someday soon Jason Robert Brown achieves the elusive critical and commercial hit his talent deserves.


And those are my gut reactions to this year's Tony nominations. Throughout the next six weeks you can expect this blog to feature lots of speculation, predictions, and even another review or two. In meantime, you can take a look at my coverage of the 2015 Tonys so far (and read just how misguided my Featured Actor and Actress predictions were) below:

Tony Rule Change
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Production
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Actor
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Actress
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Featured Actor/Actress

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

It's that time of year again! Now that spring has finally sprung and all of this season's Broadway productions have officially opened, it's time to discuss one of my favorite entertainment events of the year: the Tony Awards! They're Broadway's highest honor, designed to celebrate the industry's best and brightest stars and productions, and a strong showing at the Tonys can help turn an unsuccessful show into a hit (see last year's Best Musical winner A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, which never would have recouped without the box office boost its win provided).

This year's nominations will be announced April 28th, and every day between now and then I will be posting my predictions and analysis of the likely nominees in each of the Big 12 categories (New Play/Musical, Play/Musical Revival, and the 8 acting awards). I've had a pretty good track record in the past, but each year things become more complicated thanks to the ever-changing rules that have seen the maximum number of potential nominees expand. This year, the Best Play, Best Musical, and Best Play Revival categories all have enough eligible productions to prompt an expansion to five nominees. But as last year's four horse Best Musical race proved, just because the committee can nomination five shows doesn't mean it will, which makes predicting how many slots there are to fill just as hard as whittling down the eligible productions.

I've put a lot of thought into this and am fairly confident in my choices, but every year the nominations committee throws the Broadway community at least one curve ball. In acknowledgement of this, I will be listing a Wildcard nominee in each category, representing the production I think has the best chance of sneaking past my official predictions and into Tony Award contention. So without further ado, here are the productions I think will be competing for those much coveted Antoinette Perry Awards!


Best Musical

Brad Oscar and Brian d'Arcy James provide two of the funniest performances in the glitzy new musical comedy Something Rotten!

This may be the trickiest of the production categories to predict, as while there are enough eligible productions to allow five Best Musical nominees, last year's awards showed that is by no means guaranteed. In an odd bit of Tony math, I actually think we'll see the maximum five nominations despite this year's crop of musicals being (in my opinion) less exciting and worthy of that honor. There has yet to be a breakout critical and commercial hit among this year's new musicals, which probably means more variety in the Tony committee's number one picks and therefore a greater chance of the kind of close vote that would provoke a five competitor category.

While there are not sure things, I think Fun Home and Something Rotten! are this year's contenders. Both are well reviewed and recently opened musicals, so the buzz on both is strong for very different reasons. Rotten lovingly mocks Broadway in the same way as past Best Musical winners The Producers and Spamalot, and both the cast and creative team is filled with well-loved industry professionals who have been doing this for years. Fun Home is the rare musical that has made the shortlist for the Pulitzer Prize (even if it didn't win), addressing such important issues as personal identity and parent/child relationships in a way that is both funny and thought provoking. If either show was left off the list on Tony Tuesday, I would be very surprised.

From there, things are a lot less certain. Finding Neverland seems to be the commercial success of the season, and Tony voters clearly love director Diane Paulus, with all three of her previous Broadway credits winning their production categories. That said, it was utterly trashed by critics, to the point where its box office prowess might not matter. The top-notch Honeymoon in Vegas deserves a spot on this list, but since it recently closed after a very rough Broadway run I feel its perceived status as a flop will hinder its chances. The same logic also doesn't bode well for Sting's The Last Ship, although I can also envision a scenario where enough time has passed since its January closing for some nostalgia to set in and see it squeak into the category. An American in Paris scored surprisingly strong reviews, enough to put it into serious contention, and one can't rule out The Visit, as it is the last time Tony voters will ever be able to nominate a new work by theatrical legends Kander & Ebb. And after a surprisingly strong showing in the other industry Best Musical races, ensemble comedy It Shoulda Been You stands a legitimate shot at cracking into this close race.

Nominees
An American in Paris
Fun Home
It Shoulda Been You
Something Rotten!
The Visit

Wildcard
Honeymoon in Vegas


Best Play

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time proves you don't need a realistic set to produce some mind-blowing images.

This category could be easily subtitled "The British Import We Liked the Best." The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time and Wolf Hall are virtual locks, given their ecstatic reception by the New York press. I would also consider it hugely surprising if The Audience wasn't nominated, as it is one of the most successful plays of the season and everybody loves Helen Mirren (even if critics weren't entirely sold on Peter Morgan's script).

Which doesn't leave a whole lot of room for competitors, even assuming a five nominee playing field. The homegrown show with the best chance of cracking into the Best Play race is Hand to God, whose Cinderella story from Off-Off-Broadway play to Main Stem critical hit is catnip to Tony voters who will surely overlook the show's somewhat troubling gender politics. In fact, there is a genuine chance that 2013 Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced doesn't even get nominated, as interest in that production has cooled considerably since its critically acclaimed October premiere. Constellations (another British import) scored surprisingly strong reviews and is much fresher in voters minds, making it a serious contender for the fifth nomination slot. And one can't completely rule out box office smash Fish in the Dark, although Tony voters have recently proven far less influenced by box office success than they used to be; since Fish received kind but not glowing reviews, I don't think it really has a chance of spoiling anyone's fun, but stranger things have happened.

Nominees
The Audience
Constellations
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Hand to God
Wolf Hall Parts I & II

Wildcard
Disgraced


Best Musical Revival

I could have danced all night with this Broadway power couple, both giving exhilarating performances in Bartlett Sher's jaw-droppingly gorgeous staging of The King and I.

With only five eligible productions, Best Musical Revival is the one category we can guarantee won't have five nominees as the Tony rules won't allow it. The committee could nominate as few as three productions, as they did last year, although I suspect they will go with the traditional four as I think last year's reduced field was done primarily to keep all the eligible productions from being nominated (although if we're being honest, Cabaret deserved a nomination last year much more than Les Miserables).

Prediction this category is relatively simple. On the Town and The King and I are both transcendent productions and my two favorite musicals, new or revived, of the season. Both are guaranteed nominations, and at this moment I am 100% certain the Best Revival award will go to one of them. Roundabout Theatre Company took a gamble on producing the somewhat dated On the Twentieth Century (it's one of the most complex musical productions the non-profit has ever done), something that largely paid off thanks to the irrepressible dynamo that is leading lady Kristin Chenoweth. Between Chenoweth's operatic antics and the show's tap dancing porters, Twentieth Century's nomination prospects are looking very strong.

The only real question here is if the fourth slot will go to Side Show, Gigi, or neither. Side Show got better reviews, although it also struggled at the box office and was kicked out of the St. James Theatre in early January to make room for the more profitable sounding Something Rotten! Gigi is currently running (always a plus with Tony voters) and the presence of former Disney Channel star Vanessa Hudgens has thus far proven to be a fairly reliable box office draw, which a few years ago would have had me predicting it for the final nomination slot. Given recent Tony trends, however, I'm giving the edge to Side Show, whose fans are much more passionate than Gigi's and will likely see a Best Revival nod as one way to make up for the show's short Broadway run.

Nominees
The King & I
On the Town
On the Twentieth Century
Side Show

Wildcard
Gigi


Best Play Revival

Yes, there were people in The Elephant Man not named Bradley Cooper (but for better or worse, Cooper is the one who sold the tickets).

Normally a hyper-competitive category, this year's Best Play Revival race is somewhat weaker than normal. Many of the nine eligible productions got respectful reviews, but few provoked much enthusiasm from the press, which makes me suspect that this category may stay at four nominees despite enough revivals to allow for a category expansion. The one sure bet (and likely winner) is the Bradley Cooper led The Elephant Man, which was the talk of the town this past winter and probably the strongest reviewed production in the bunch. Following close behind is the just opened revival of David Hare's Skylight, imported from London's West End with its leads intact.

The first three revivals of the season (This is Our Youth, Love Letters, and You Can't Take It With You) all got very strong reviews, but have also been closed for a very long time. I honestly had forgotten about both Youth and Love Letters until I was looking at a list of eligible productions, and I doubt many others will remember them without prompting, basically killing any chance they have at a nomination. I do expect You Can't Take It With You to make the cut, which leaves one more slot for Tony nominators to fill. It's Only a Play was one of the fall's hot tickets thanks to its starry cast, something that has allowed the production to hang on despite generally poor reviews. Interest has cooled considerably since then, but the fact it's still running and has recently welcomed back headliner Nathan Lane means it has to be considered. I personally don't think it will edge out both The Heidi Chronicles and The Real Thing for the fourth nomination slot - the latter two plays are much better respected than Terrence McNally's showbiz comedy - but you never know.

Nominees
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
Skylight
You Can't Take It With You

Wildcard
The Real Thing


Those are my predictions in the production categories. Check back tomorrow for my Best Actor predictions, and don't be afraid to share your thoughts in the comments section!

Previous Coverage
Tony Rule Change