2015 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

It all comes down to this. On Sunday, the American Theatre Wing will crown the latest crop of Tony Award winners, representing the best and brightest of the Broadway theatre season. As the industry's highest honor, the Tonys prompt huge amounts of speculation every season, as winning can provide the boost needed to send an actor's career to the next level or ensure a struggling production runs long enough to turn a profit. 

There are only two categories remaining in my annual Tony predictions, and they are the two biggest: Best Play and Best Musical. More than any other award, a win in one of these categories can mark the turning point where an obscure property becomes a long-running, oft produced hit. It automatically generates more interest in the ticket buying public, and specifically for musicals can be the different between turning a profit and closing at a loss. (For a case in point, last year's well reviewed A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder struggled at the box office until winning the Best Musical prize, and has since recouped its investment.) So which new play and musical will have the honor of being selected as Broadway's best? Find out below.

Warning: Occasional snark and major speculation to follow.

Best Play

Alex Sharp in one of the many visually stunning scenes from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

Nominees: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Disgraced; Hand to God; Wolf Hall Parts I & II

What does it say about the Tony Awards when Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced is the least competitive Best Play nominee? The implications of that could fill an entire blog post on their own, but what it primarily says is that having your show running during voting season is almost essential to winning. Tony voters don't have the longest memories, and in a competitive season such as this the probing Muslim-American drama just couldn't find the traction to stick with voters past its March 1st closing date.

The other three contenders are all currently running and each has its champions, although there seems to be less fervor surrounding the Royal Shakespeare Company's Wolf Hall double bill. Which leaves London import The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time and scrappy underdog Hand to God to battle it out for the big prize, with the former the clear favorite. Curious Incident, in addition to being the most visually stunning play of the season, is a well written and cleverly nuanced coming of age story about an autistic youth, wonderfully embodied by likely Best Actor winner Alex Sharp. It has also won every Best Play award of the season, an uninterrupted winning streak that is hard to ignore.

Yet you can't completely dismiss Hand to God and its passionate supporters, who would love to see a wholly American play take this award (although given the last 3 Best Play winners were all home grown successes, it's getting harder to argue the Tonys are biased towards British imports). An edgy, unpredictable work, Hand to God ultimately becomes so focused on shocking the audience it loses sight of its thematic core. Playwright Robert Askins clearly has something to say, but you get the impression he hasn't quite figured out how to say it, whereas Curious Incident knows exactly what it wants to communicate and does so beautifully. While I won't entirely rule out a Hand to God upset, I think Curious Incident both deserves and will win this award for combining a beautiful script about an important subject with a highly inventive, top tier production.

Will & Should Win: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Musical

The three different incarnations of Alison Bechdel, the lesbian cartoonist whose graphic memoir inspired the boundary pushing chamber musical Fun Home.

Nominees: An American in Paris; Fun Home; Something Rotten!; The Visit

Of the four Best Musical nominees, I probably got the most enjoyment out of watching the frankly insane The Visit unapologetically tell its story of love, greed and revenge. But as fascinating as Kander and Ebb's final show is, it definitely has the smallest chance of winning here, scoring only half as many nominations as any of its competitors. A couple months ago, word on the street was that Something Rotten! would be the musical to beat this season, but its disappointing showing at the other industry awards makes it look less competitive than it once did. I suspect the show is a little too derivative of past Tony winners Spamalot and The Producers to really impress the voters, but given its recent million dollar weeks I think the show will run regardless of what happens Sunday night.

This race will ultimately come down to An American in Paris versus Fun Home, and it remains almost too close to call. Fun Home is the more prestigious of the two shows, both better constructed and better realized. Yet something about the show left me cold, and even though I appreciated the piece's ambition and the skill of all involved, I wasn't moved by it the way I expected to be. There is also the question of whether the road producers are willing to vote for a dark, challenging musical about a lesbian cartoonist and her closeted father when they could vote for a crowd pleasing dance show packed with familiar Gershwin tunes that will surely pack their regional houses. The other industry awards don't provide much indication as to which way voters are leaning, as Fun Home's Off-Broadway run occurred last season and therefore the two shows have not been in direct competition (Fun Home dominated last year, while American in Paris has been riding high this year).

Until a couple of days ago, I would have predicted a victory for An American in Paris. But as I write this, I really think the voters will do the right thing and vote Fun Home the Best Musical of 2015. It is certainly better written, and arguably better performed (although the American in Paris cast is quite talented). And recent Tony voting patterns show that many of the supposed obstacles to a Fun Home victory aren't really issues at all. Kinky Boots' win and subsequent success across the country proves that road voters and audiences aren't inherently terrified of "gay" shows, although the glitzy drag musical is a much more sanitized and widely appealing production. And if the road producers vote strictly for the most commercial production, last year would have seen Beautiful or Aladdin triumph over Gentleman's Guide. So at the last minute, I am changing my official prediction from American in Paris to Fun Home, and hoping that the Tony voters don't disappoint me.

Will & Should Win: Fun Home
Incredibly Close Second Where Winning Odds Are Concerned: An American in Paris


And there you have it. Those are my official predictions for the 2014-2015 Tony season. Check back on Monday to see my thoughts on this year's winners and the Tony telecast itself, and be sure to check out any of the coverage you may have missed below.

Nominations React
Best Book & Score
Best Direction & Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Revival

Shocking, Profane, and Just What Broadway Needs?

Review: Hand to God

Steven Boyer as Jason (l) and Tyrone (r), the stars of the provocative new play Hand to God.

There's been little on contemporary Broadway to prepare audiences for the pitch black comedy Hand to God, a provocative indictment of religion and faith currently drawing both hearty guffaws and shocked gasps at the Booth Theatre. Sure, Avenue Q tackled the "foul mouthed puppets" schtick first, but despite that Tony-winning musical's abundance of four letter words its characters lacked the viciousness and anger of Tyrone, the profanity prone sock puppet at this play's center. Written by Broadway newcomer Robert Askins, Hand to God is one of the most brazen, boundary pushing, and thoroughly unpredictable new works to grace the Great White Way in some time. These characteristics prove to be both assets and weaknesses during the show's lighting fast two hour runtime, and even if you don't agree with or even like the play, you certainly can't accuse Askins and company of playing it safe.

Set in the small town of Cypress, Texas (Askins' actual hometown), Hand to God introduces us to Jason, a shy and awkward young man who has been coerced by his mother Margery into joining her Christian Puppet Ministry. Puppet practice seems to be one of the few things that brings Jason anything resembling joy, as he struggles with his awkwardness around girls, the school bully, and a very complicated relationship with his recently widowed mother. Unfortunately for Jason, his hand puppet Tyrone seems to have taken on a mind of its own, providing withering critiques of everyone in Jason's life via hilariously caustic one liners. Soon it becomes clear that Tyrone has gotten out of hand (sorry, I had to), and by intermission it's already apparent there is no line Hand to God is unwilling to cross.

Once Askins' script gets going, there's no stopping it. Events quickly spiral beyond any semblance of control, making for a thrilling roller coaster ride of a play that will quickly take you from being doubled over in laughter to physically cringing at the thought of what might happen next. There is nothing pretentious or artificial about Askins' dialogue, which perfectly captures the play's small town milieu and lends the show's characters an authenticity without which the entire enterprise would crumble. (Praise be to vocal coach Ellen Lettrich for creating one of the most convincing southern drawls this Georgia transplant has ever heard on the New York stage.)

Askins makes a lot of smart observation about human behavior and how the concepts of good and evil function in our society. Unfortunately, he bites off a bit more than he can chew, particularly when it comes to Jason's mother. Margery enters into an incredibly violent sexual relationship that has the outward appearance of rape, except no one including Margery seems all too concerned about what that suggests. If this had been a one time occurrence it would still be troubling but perhaps understandable from a playwriting perspective; however, there are two separate and lengthy instances of this not-rape, the consequences of which are never adequately addressed. They seem included solely for shock value, which is particularly disheartening when contrasted with how Tyrone's discomforting tirades force you to re-examine your own assumptions in order to understand where the play is coming from.

On a less unsettling note, the play is incredibly well acted, especially the jaw-dropping fluidity with which Steven Boyer simultaneously portrays the meek Jason and strong willed Tyrone. Boyer's mastery of his own body is so complete and specific that Jason and Tyrone truly feel like separate entities. The contrast between Jason's hunched over, closed off body language and Tyrone's upright fury while railing against his host is mind boggling, and several of the play's best scenes take place entirely between Jason and Tyrone. Boyer's commitment to his dual roles and expert puppeteering mean you must constantly remind yourself that Tyrone is not a living, breathing being. The inventive ways Boyer has Tyrone interact with the environment and other characters are both a joy to watch and absolutely terrifying (at one point, Boyer finds a way to convincingly throw himself across the room by having Tyrone hoist Jason up by his shirt collar). Boyer's is the type of performance that will be talked about for years to come, and is reason enough to justify the price of a ticket.

Geneva Carr does very strong work as Margery and almost manages to make the aforementioned rape scenes work. She provides a very compelling and believable portrait of a basically good woman handling life's trials very poorly (there is no Mother of the Year award in Margery's future), and through it all her very real yet strained love of Jason provides the play with its emotional core. Marc Kudish is in fine form in the mostly reactionary role of Pastor Greg, and Michael Oberholtzer is perfectly cast as the town bully/troubled youth Timothy. And Sarah Stiles miraculously finds a new take on the "girl next door" archetype that feels both fresh and truthful.

Beowulf Boritt's set is perfection down to the smallest detail. Everything from the specific type of plastic chair to the cloying motivational posters on the wall to the specific shade of blue-gray paint haphazardly applied over brick and mortar screams small town church, and Boritt makes clever use of rotating walls to reveal the play's other mundane but no less evocative locales. As with most contemporary-set plays, Sydney Maresca's costumes and Jason Lyons' lights don't really get the chance to go beyond their most basic functions, but both designs are still well executed and serve the piece well. Everything is competently directed by Moritz von Stuelpnagel, who smartly lets Askins' script and Boyers' performance do most of the heavy lifting.

Those who are easily offended or don't like to be challenged by their entertainment should stay far away from Hand to God, which pulls no punches over the course of its pulse-pounding two hours. But if you're willing to be challenged or just appreciate boundary-pushing new works, the show offers plenty of food for thought. Quite frankly, Broadway could stand more shows like Hand To God, which proudly wears its lack of name talent and American origin as a badge of honor in a market flooded with star-studded revivals and London imports. You may not agree with everything the show has to say, but it is a breath of fresh air to find a Broadway show with the ambition and confidence to make such statements to begin with.

Most Anticipated Shows of Spring 2015

After a fall filled with star-studded plays and nary a new musical in sight (save The Last Ship), this upcoming spring on Broadway is practically overflowing with productions of all shapes and sizes. Things just keep getting added to the calendar, with the Kennedy Center's revamped revival of Gigi having just announced its impending transfer for this coming March. If anyone has any doubts about the health of the theatre industry, the fact 19 productions (20 if you count each part of the Wolf Hall double bill separately) are scheduled to open in the next 4 months shows there are plenty of shows waiting for their chance in the spotlight. And while all are exciting in their own way, here are the ones I'm most looking forward to:

The King and I

The key art for Lincoln Center's The King and I clearly evokes the same feel as the poster for their smash hit, critically acclaimed South Pacific. Coincidence? I think not.

Lincoln Center Theatre's upcoming revival of Rodgers & Hammerstein's The King and I has me in a tizzy for several reasons. First and foremost, this revival marks the latest leading lady role for the positively sublime Kelli O'Hara, who at this point is second only to Audra McDonald in my personal pantheon of Broadway divas. She reteams with director Bartlett Sher, who helped shape her revelatory performances in South Pacific and The Bridges of Madison County. And like the aforementioned South Pacific, I fully expect Lincoln Center to pour every cent they have into what will surely be one of the most lavish physical productions in years, the mere thought of which has me giddy. Will this year be the one where O'Hara FINALLY wins her long overdue Tony Award? I can't say (only hope), but no matter what I'm sure O'Hara will be perfection in this. I've already got my tickets!

On the Twentieth Century

Roundabout continues its recent tradition of really unfortunate key art; Kristin Chenoweth is virtually unrecognizable despite being this revival's main attraction.

Like many theatregoers, I'm primarily looking forward to this Roundabout revival because it marks Kristin Chenoweth's first Broadway appearance in 5 years. Her last stint on the Great White Way was the horrendous Promises, Promises, a production that wasted Chenoweth's talents and ranks as one of the most frustrating shows I've ever experienced. But her performance in the original cast of Wicked remains a personal favorite, and as her extensive concert work proves Chenoweth is blessed with a formidable voice that can be light as air or shake the rafters. Chenoweth is in danger of becoming a caricature of herself, but this production should bring her back to her musical comedy roots in a role originated by the late, great Madeline Khan. Chenoweth has spoken about her desire to star in the show for years, and seeing a performer tackle a dream role is generally something worth experiencing, which makes me cautiously optimistic for her highly anticipated return.

The Heidi Chronicles

See Roundabout? Sometimes a simple high quality photo is all you need.

I'll admit to being entirely unfamiliar with Wendy Wasserstein's Pulitzer Prize winning play, which put the pioneering playwright on the map; I don't even know the general premise beyond "career woman lives through 3 decades of feminism." But in a landscape dominated by celebrity fronted revivals of Great American Dramas that often feel dusty and dated, its nice to see someone tackle a play that isn't older than the average audience member. As a huge fan of Elisabeth Moss' sterling work on TV's Mad Men, I'm excited to see her make her Broadway debut in a female authored, female directed play about women's issues (a woefully underrepresented viewpoint). Moss may not have the same star power as a Hugh Jackman or Bradley Cooper, but she's every bit as good an actor, and I look forward to seeing her tackle this decades-spanning comedic drama.

An American in Paris

Robert Fairchild and Leanne Cope in the pre-Broadway tryout of An American in Paris.

There are some that question whether Broadway is big enough for this stage adaptation of the Oscar-winning film and the similarly dance-heavy On the Town. To these people I say "shut up," because there has been an alarming lack of high level dancing on Broadway in recent seasons. On the Town proved what a shame that is, with a stage full of carefully rehearsed dancers proving just as thrilling as any falling chandelier or flying magic carpet. Yes, this hybrid musical padded out with Gershwin trunk songs will see yet another permutation of "I've Got Rhythm," but considering the song's potential as a showstopper I'll give the creative team a pass. (This will also tide me over until we finally get that Crazy for You revival I've been hoping for). A runaway hit in Paris, I think this American could wind up being one of the highlights of the spring season.

Hand to God

Obie Award winner Stephen Boyer (right) and his foul-mouthed hand puppet Tyrone are just waiting to take Broadway by storm.

This little play that could is coming to the big leagues after critically acclaimed Off-Off-Broadway and Off-Broadway runs. A self-described "hilarious and provocative" dark comedy, the show is about a teen who joins the Christian Puppet Ministry only to have his hand puppet Tyrone take on a vulgar, dangerously irreverent personality seemingly all its own. Foul-mouthed puppets can be comedic gold (Avenue Q continues to run Off-Broadway, even though most predicted it would struggle to last one season back in the early 2000s), and both Hand to God's synopsis and snarky, tongue in cheek marketing campaign have definitely piqued my interest. One can only see The Book of Mormon so many times, and Hand looks poised to strike a similarly comedic/satiric sensibility.

Fun Home

The three different Alisons of Fun Home in the musical's much lauded run at the Public Theatre last winter.

I'm still kicking myself that I didn't make the time to see this critically acclaimed musical during its extended Off-Broadway run back in 2013, so I'm especially excited it's being given a full scale Broadway production featuring almost the entire Off-Broadway cast. One of the rare musicals to make the short list for the Pulitzer Prize, the show is based on the graphic novel memoir of famed lesbian cartoonist Alison Bechdel, which explores her experience coming out and her relationship with her troubled father. Composer Jeanie Tesori hasn't always written my favorite musicals, but she has consistently written interesting ones, with her more dramatic works pushing the boundaries of what a modern musical can be. Fun Home sounds like the perfect opportunity to explore a host of timely LGBT issues from a perspective that is virtually non-existent in contemporary theatre. I expect this to be the critical darling of the spring season and a major competitor come Tony time.

The Visit

Living legend Chita Rivera can't be bothered during the Williamstown Theatre Festival's recent production of Kander & Ebb's The Visit.

One of the last collaborations between the legendary Kander and Ebb, The Visit sounds like just the kind of darkly theatrical show that has always been the pair's bread and butter. Crafted specifically as a starring vehicle for the incomparable Chita Rivera, it's a match made in theatrical heaven (both of Rivera's Tony Awards are for Kander and Ebb roles). Adding to the allure of this production is the fact it's being billed as the 82 year old Rivera's final Broadway appearance, and is therefore likely the last chance I'll ever have to see one of Broadway's all time great actresses in action. I doubt the show has many commercial prospects, so this is definitely one I plan on seeing sooner rather than later just in case its run is as criminally short as the pair's brilliant Scottsboro Boys.


The above list by no means represents all of the shows I'm interested in. I'm certainly curious to see how Doctor Zhivago turns out, but I'm concerned this sweeping literary adaptation will feel like a bygone relic of the 1980s. The insane amount of buzz around Something Rotten certainly demands a closer look, as word of mouth is so strong it convinced producers to skip a planned out of town tryout and open cold on Broadway. The musical's director Casey Nicholaw is one of the best around, but then again the equally talented Susan Stroman's equally buzzed about Bullets Over Broadway disappointed in the exact same theatre a year ago, so I have some reservations. And while I desperately want Finding Neverland to be good, the more I hear about it the more I think producer Harvey Weinstein will ruin it with his misguided, business-oriented meddling (in no universe is Matthew Morrison an improvement over Jeremy Jordan, in either talent or box office drawing power).

Be sure to keep checking this very blog throughout the coming months to see my reviews of the spring Broadway season, and of course my annual and exhaustive coverage of the Tony Awards (which is starting up sooner than you think).