Here we are at the end of the acting categories. Before I start making Best Actor predictions,
I want to remind you of my two caveats:
1) I have not necessarily seen all of the nominees; and 2) I am
prediction who will win, which is not
always the same as who should win.
Best Actor in a Play
Nominees:
James Corden, One Man, Two
Guvnors; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman; James Earl Jones, The
Best Man; Frank Langella, Man and
Boy; John Lithgow, The Columnist
I don’t mean
to sound disrespectful of their work, but as far as this season is concerned past
winners James Earl Jones, Frank Langella, and John Lithgow are essentially
also-rans in a two person Tony race.
Jones received solid reviews for his work in The Best Man, but that show is more of an ensemble piece than a
star vehicle, and having a star vehicle is a virtual prerequisite to winning
the Best Actor trophy. Langella’s Man and Boy definitely qualifies as a star
vehicle, but outside of his performance the production was dismissed by
critics. It also closed by mid-October
and hasn’t been discussed since, leaving Langella without the necessary
momentum needed to secure a Tony statuette.
John Lithgow
is in a better position than either Jones or Langella, in that The Columnist is a currently-running
star vehicle from a well-respected author.
Unfortunately, the deluge of late-April openings resulted in The Columnist getting lost in the
shuffle, and many found the play to be serviceable but disappointing given the
talent involved (Lithgow is a past Tony winner, and playwright David Auburn is
a Tony and Pulitzer Prize winner).
That leaves
us with James Corden and Phillip Seymour Hoffman, both of whom have a lot going
in their favor. One Man, Two Guvnors seems to be this season’s British Sensation,
the imported new play that has critics practically falling over themselves to
praise it. Corden himself has received
plenty of accolades his physically demanding performance, and recent Tony
history shows a strong voter bias toward English-bred actors. However, that same history also shows a bias
towards big name Hollywood talent in revivals of classic plays, which perfectly
describes Hoffman. Death of a Salesman is one of the most critically and commercially
successful productions of the season, something that couldn’t have been
achieved without a commanding central performance. While I haven’t personally seen Corden, I
have trouble imagining him topping Hoffman’s devastating turn in Arthur
Miller’s classic, and I suspect Tony voters will feel the same way.
Will and Should Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman
Best Actor in a Musical
Nominees:
Danny Burstein, Follies; Jeremy
Jordan, Newsies; Steve Kazee, Once; Norm Lewis, Porgy and Bess; Rob Raines, Follies
Unlike their
play counterparts, the Best Actor in a Musical nominees are much more evenly
matched. There isn’t a clear-cut front
runner, and an argument could be made for any of these fine actors to win the
big prize. All of that said, I think we can safely rule out both Norm Lewis and
Rob Raines. I have always felt Lewis’
abilities as an actor have been underrated, and I’m happy to see him receive
his first Tony nomination for his accomplished work in Porgy and Bess. That said,
his is by no means the strongest performance of the bunch, and he’s greatly
overshadowed by costar Audra McDonald, who from day one has been at the center
of all that particular revival’s press coverage.
Similarly, while
Rob Raines did some excellent work in Follies,
it did not reach the giddy heights of his costar and fellow nominee Danny
Burstein. Unlike last year, when Andrew
Rannells and Josh Gad were so equally matched in The Book of Mormon that they effectively canceled one another out,
popular opinion has clearly favored Burstein over Raines. Anyone who wants to see a Follies win in this category will
certainly vote for Burstein.
Jeremy
Jordan is technically nominated for Newsies,
but I think it’s safe to assume his is a blanket nomination for both that
show and his work earlier this season as one of the title characters in Bonnie & Clyde. Jordan is the hot young talent of the
season, and though his work in Newsies isn’t
as psychologically complex or emotionally mature as his competition, it is
everything you could reasonably expect in a lighthearted show whose sole
purpose is to entertain. The road
producers who usually vote for more commercially viable fare will want to
ensure Newsies ends up with enough
wins to sound impressive in an ad campaign, and Jordan could easily reap the
benefits of their Tony love.
Steve Kazee
is something of a wildcard. On the one
hand, he is giving a very moving performance in the most critically lauded new
musical of the season, and the buzz around Once
certainly isn’t hurting his chances.
On the other, for whatever reason the critical love of Once doesn’t quite extend into
recognition for its cast (Kazee and costar Cristin Milioti were both
conspicuously absent from the Drama Desk nominee list). Because it is a new work and not a known
property, I think some people are overlooking how much of the show’s success is
due to its leads, instead of being wholly generated by the very strong book and
score.
I’d say the
two gentlemen most likely to hear their name called on Tony night are Danny
Burstein and Jeremy Jordan. Burstein deserves the award for his revelatory and heart-breaking performance in Follies, a production the entire theatrical
community went gaga over last
fall and will certainly want to see recognized. Burstein’s role
is the hardest of the show’s central quartet to make interesting, making it all
the more impressive that he ended up being one of the best parts of that much
celebrated production. But Jeremy Jordan has had a star-is-born season, and the Tonys love to celebrate talented newcomers as much as seasoned pros. As much as I loved Burstein (I've been saying he needs to win this award since September), I am starting to suspect that this is Jordan's year.
Will Win: Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
Should Win: Danny Burstein, Follies
Should Win: Danny Burstein, Follies
That’s all
for the acting awards. The only
predictions I have left to make are the production categories, so look for my
picks for the season’s best revivals soon!
In the
meantime, here are the rest of my Tony prediction articles in case you missed
them:
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
No comments:
Post a Comment