2012 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

And then there were two.  The only categories left to discuss are the two biggest awards of any Tony season, Best Play and Best Musical.  Winning either of these awards has a major effect on a show’s future prospects, ensuring a high profile that makes the work one of the first scripts regional and amateur theatres assess when programming their upcoming seasons.  For musicals especially, winning this award provides a document box office boost, increasing the length of the show’s run and raising the chances of it actually turning a profit.

As always, I must point out a couple of caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated productions; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which is not the same as who should win.  History is riddled with examples of Tony’s top honor going to something other than the season’s best (find me one person who honestly believes The Music Man is a better overall show than West Side Story), and if that seems to be the case this year, I will say as much in the body of the article.

Best Play

Nominees:  Clybourne Park, Other Desert Cities, Peter and the Starcatcher, Venus in Fur

Since there is no separate playwriting category, the Best Play award functions as an acknowledgement of both the production as a whole and the script in particular, raising the desirability of a win in this category.  For the first time in years, every single nominee is a new American play, a refreshing change of pace from the recent domination of British shows winning this award.

While all of these plays are worthy, this is really a two-way race between Clybourne Park and Other Desert Cities.  Venus is Fur is a lean and thought-provoking work featuring two dazzling performances, but its early season opening has resulting in it losing a lot of buzz to more recent works.  And while many theatregoers are completely enamored with Peter and the Starcatcher, it will struggle to overcome its image as a kids’ play, something the high-minded Tony voters tend to scoff at no matter how well done.  Many would also argue that the direction has as much if not more to do with the Peter’s success than the actual script, a major problem since a Best Play win doubles as a writing honor.

Both Clybourne Park and Other Desert Cities have a lot of elements that Tony voters look for in potential Best Play winners.  Both are ensemble driven pieces that tackle serious issues with a healthy mix of humor and pathos, expertly acted and directed by some of the most talented people in the business.  And from a financial standpoint, Other Desert Cities is one of the most successful plays in years, having sustained strong box office and word of mouth despite being open for the better part of a year (name the last play that opened in October and was still running in early June).  In any other year, it would be the show to beat.

But there is something about Clybourne Park that compels people to vote for it.  While Cities had to settle for being “only” a Pulitzer Prize finalist, the racially charged Clybourne won the prestigious award in 2011.  The show does seem like a new type of play, whereas Cities is very much in the mold of the dozens of family dramas that have come before it.  Helped by a pitch perfect cast who has been with the show since its Off-Broadway premiere, Clybourne Park has the most momentum going into this evening, and I expect Tony voters to crown it this year’s Best Play.

Will Win:  Clybourne Park
Should Win:  Other Desert Cities

Best Musical

Nominees:  Leap of Faith, Newsies, Nice Work If You Can Get It, Once

I have no idea who the Leap of Faith producers paid off to get their critically panned show included among this year’s Best Musical nominees, especially considering the show’s dismal box office and premature closing indicate they didn’t have a lot of money to use for such bribery.  Granted, this has not been a great year for new musicals, especially compared to last year’s incredibly strong crop of new shows, but I have to believe there was a more deserving potential nominee.  But all the money in the world couldn’t secure Faith a win in this category, so I guess there isn’t too much harm done.

Nice Work If You Can Get It really should be better than it actually is, but as last year’s Women on the Verge proved, putting a bunch of past Tony winners in the same room does not automatically produce Tony-worthy work.  Nice Work is perfectly serviceable, but there is nothing exciting or overly interesting about this by the numbers show.  Most of the people involved seem to be there only for the paycheck rather than a love of the material, as evidenced by the lackadaisical performances of both Matthew Broderick and, I hate to say it, Kelli O’Hara.  Kathleen Marshall would have been better off spending the year collecting Anything Goes royalty checks, and I can only hope her next show marks a return to form for the very talented choreographer/director.

From the moment its Broadway transfer was announced, I knew Newsies would be a frontrunner for the Best Musical trophy.  It is easily the most commercial new musical of the season, and potential touring profits have been a deciding factor in this category more than once.  The show’s family friendly song and dance routine is definitely entertaining, and now that Disney has finally stopped playing coy and announced the show for an open-ended run, I expect Newsies to easily outlast the rest of this season’s new shows.  It is not high art, but it is well-done escapist entertainment, which wins the Tony more often than not.

However, I think Disney got the timing wrong on this one.  Had the show opened in April instead of in March, it would still be riding high on its post-opening buzz and sail into an easy Tony victory.  But the show has been running just long enough that we are starting to see some backlash against its lowly ambitions, and the flaws in its slickly-presented façade are more apparent in hindsight.  And the people who realize that Newsies isn’t quite as good as Disney would have you believe will surely vote for Once as the season’s best new show.

At first I was skeptical of Once, fearing this stage adaptation of an Oscar-winning indie film would quickly devolve into two-and-a-half hours of emotionally manipulative sentimentality accompanied by plaintive singer-songwriter style music.  But the show won me over with its expert execution and genuine heart, moving me in a way no other new musical has this season.  While small in scale, Once is large in ambition, and I’m happy to say is succeeds in achieving its lofty goals.  There is more invention and feeling in Once than in the other nominees combined, and the cherry on top of this musical sundae are two fantastic leading performances by breakout stars Steve Kazee and Cristin Milioti.

Once deserves the Best Musical trophy.  It is the best written show of the year, and the acting is the most truthful and heartfelt I’ve seen all season.  No one should be surprised if Newsies takes the prize tonight (I certainly won’t be), but I think Once has built up enough momentum that it might actually triumph over Disney’s pre-ordained classic.  Yes, this year has not been a great one for new musicals, but these two shows are definitely worthy of Broadway and beyond.

Will and Should Win:  Once

And that’s it for my 2012 Tony predictions!  Tune in to the Tony Awards telecast tonight at 8 to see how I did, and check back in the coming days for my reaction to Broadway’s biggest night.  If you’ve missed any of my previous prediction blogs, check them out below:

Best Revival

Best Actor (*Note:  I’ve amended my prediction for Best Actor in a Musical.  A lot of people seem to think Jeremy Jordan has this one in the bag, and since he was a close second for me I’ve upgraded him to “Will Win.”  Danny Burstein still “should win,” but I’m thinking this is Jordan’s year.)
Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions - Best Revival

Now that we’ve discussed the creative categories and the acting nominees, all that’s left to predict are the production awards.  These awards are arguably the most prestigious, as theatre is a collaborative medium and a production win is an acknowledgement of excellent in all aspects of a particular show.  As I prepare to predict the season’s best revivals, please keep in mind my two caveats: 1) I have not necessarily seen all of the nominated productions; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which is not necessarily the same as who should win.  Any discrepancies in the two will be discussed in the body of the article.

Best Revival of a Play

Nominees:  Death of a Salesman, The Best Man, Master Class, Wit

Master Class is an extreme long shot in this category, as it opened and closed during the summer of 2011.  Tony voters have notoriously short memories, and given the sheer number of shows that have opened since then, Master Class should consider itself lucky for having been nominated at all.  It is particularly telling that the production’s star, Tyne Daly, failed to receive a Best Actress nomination despite her much ballyhooed turn as opera diva Maria Callas in a piece that is essentially a one woman show with interruptions. 

Wit suffers from a less severe version of the same problem.  Historically, winning a Best Revival trophy has been very difficult when a show isn’t being performed nightly to remind voters how good it is, and Wit has been closed for months.  Cynthia Nixon’s Best Actress nomination proves the show is still present in people’s minds, but despite being highly regarded I don’t think the production as a whole made enough of an impression to secure a Best Revival win.

The Best Man has the distinction of being the only nominated revival that is still running, an invaluable asset in any Tony race.  Unfortunately, it also received the least encouraging reviews of the bunch.  While many critics praised the star-studded cast, they found the show itself a tad slow, indicating that for whatever reason the individual performances aren’t adding up to a satisfying whole.  A show perceived as a disappointment, whether due to unreasonably high expectations or actual shortcomings, rarely wins the big awards.

I think Death of a Salesman will easily win Best Revival tonight.  The play is an acknowledged masterpiece, and you couldn’t ask for much better material.  But rather than rest on their laurels, Mike Nichols and his entire team pushed themselves to deliver the most universally praised revival of the year.  The presence of Oscar-winner Phillip Seymour Hoffman made the show a box office bonanza, and the level of buzz surrounding the production was deafening.  Critical acclaim, a towering central performance by an A-list celebrity, and box office success amount to a Tony-winning trifecta, and I would be shocked to see anything other than Salesman win this award.

Will and Should Win:  Death of a Salesman

Best Revival of a Musical

Nominees:  Evita, Follies, Porgy and Bess, Jesus Christ Superstar

The Tonys have often been accused of being too commercially-minded, favoring box office success over artistic merit.  While there is certainly some truth to this (producers of touring houses make up a large percentage of Tony voters, and they want to be able to book Tony-winning shows that will also make them lots of money), the revival categories seem to be less prone to this phenomenon.  That is why I think despite Evita’s enormous financial success, it has very little chance of winning the big prize.  This current revival has been unfavorably compared to memories of the original 1979 production.  Leading lady Elena Roger has proven to be a divisive Eva, and I would agree with the many audience members who feel her voice simply isn’t up to the challenge of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s demanding score.  Despite a visually stunning physical production and top-notch direction by Michael Grandage, this Evita lacks spark, and has been deemed a disappointment by many of the show’s fans.

The other Lloyd Webber revival of the season, Jesus Christ Superstar, is a much stronger contender.  Though Superstar is far inferior to Evita as a piece of musical theatre writing, director Des McAnuff and his team have polished it to a high gloss.  The end result, which wisely emphasizes the pseudo-love triangle between Jesus, Judas, and Mary, is so good that it managed to win me over despite my deep dislike of Lloyd Webber in general and Superstar in particular.  It helps that McAnuff cast leads that are actually capable of handling the insane vocal demands of the score, but Superstar’s low number of overall nominations indicates it will have a tough time winning against its stiff competition.

The real contenders here are Follies and Porgy and Bess, two fantastic shows which have received first rate productions.  The Stephen Sondheim revival boasted an impeccable cast, a sumptuous physical production and excellent direction, and I truly believe that it will be talked about for years to come as a definitive version of that landmark show.  While there is much to love about Porgy, including an astounding central performance by the incomparable Audra McDonald, purists have been vocally upset about director Diane Paulus’ retooling of a four hour opera into a two-and-a-half hour musical.  Even though Porgy is still running (a major advantage for any Tony-nominated production), I expect the ire over Paulus’ judicious cuts to keep it from taking the big prize, which is as it should be.  Follies was a truly transcendent theatrical experience, and deserves to be recognized as the best revival of the season.

Will and Should Win:  Follies

The only races left to predict are the two biggest, Best Play and Best Musical.  Stay tuned for my thoughts on each, and catch up on the rest of my Tony predictions in the meantime:

Best Actor

Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions - Best Actor

Here we are at the end of the acting categories.  Before I start making Best Actor predictions, I want to remind you of my two caveats:  1) I have not necessarily seen all of the nominees; and 2) I am prediction who will win, which is not always the same as who should win.

Best Actor in a Play

Nominees:  James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman; James Earl Jones, The Best Man; Frank Langella, Man and Boy; John Lithgow, The Columnist

I don’t mean to sound disrespectful of their work, but as far as this season is concerned past winners James Earl Jones, Frank Langella, and John Lithgow are essentially also-rans in a two person Tony race.  Jones received solid reviews for his work in The Best Man, but that show is more of an ensemble piece than a star vehicle, and having a star vehicle is a virtual prerequisite to winning the Best Actor trophy.  Langella’s Man and Boy definitely qualifies as a star vehicle, but outside of his performance the production was dismissed by critics.  It also closed by mid-October and hasn’t been discussed since, leaving Langella without the necessary momentum needed to secure a Tony statuette.

John Lithgow is in a better position than either Jones or Langella, in that The Columnist is a currently-running star vehicle from a well-respected author.  Unfortunately, the deluge of late-April openings resulted in The Columnist getting lost in the shuffle, and many found the play to be serviceable but disappointing given the talent involved (Lithgow is a past Tony winner, and playwright David Auburn is a Tony and Pulitzer Prize winner).

That leaves us with James Corden and Phillip Seymour Hoffman, both of whom have a lot going in their favor.  One Man, Two Guvnors seems to be this season’s British Sensation, the imported new play that has critics practically falling over themselves to praise it.  Corden himself has received plenty of accolades his physically demanding performance, and recent Tony history shows a strong voter bias toward English-bred actors.  However, that same history also shows a bias towards big name Hollywood talent in revivals of classic plays, which perfectly describes Hoffman.  Death of a Salesman is one of the most critically and commercially successful productions of the season, something that couldn’t have been achieved without a commanding central performance.  While I haven’t personally seen Corden, I have trouble imagining him topping Hoffman’s devastating turn in Arthur Miller’s classic, and I suspect Tony voters will feel the same way.

Will and Should Win:  Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman

Best Actor in a Musical

Nominees:  Danny Burstein, Follies; Jeremy Jordan, Newsies; Steve Kazee, Once; Norm Lewis, Porgy and Bess; Rob Raines, Follies

Unlike their play counterparts, the Best Actor in a Musical nominees are much more evenly matched.  There isn’t a clear-cut front runner, and an argument could be made for any of these fine actors to win the big prize. All of that said, I think we can safely rule out both Norm Lewis and Rob Raines.  I have always felt Lewis’ abilities as an actor have been underrated, and I’m happy to see him receive his first Tony nomination for his accomplished work in Porgy and Bess.  That said, his is by no means the strongest performance of the bunch, and he’s greatly overshadowed by costar Audra McDonald, who from day one has been at the center of all that particular revival’s press coverage. 

Similarly, while Rob Raines did some excellent work in Follies, it did not reach the giddy heights of his costar and fellow nominee Danny Burstein.  Unlike last year, when Andrew Rannells and Josh Gad were so equally matched in The Book of Mormon that they effectively canceled one another out, popular opinion has clearly favored Burstein over Raines.  Anyone who wants to see a Follies win in this category will certainly vote for Burstein.

Jeremy Jordan is technically nominated for Newsies, but I think it’s safe to assume his is a blanket nomination for both that show and his work earlier this season as one of the title characters in Bonnie & Clyde.  Jordan is the hot young talent of the season, and though his work in Newsies isn’t as psychologically complex or emotionally mature as his competition, it is everything you could reasonably expect in a lighthearted show whose sole purpose is to entertain.  The road producers who usually vote for more commercially viable fare will want to ensure Newsies ends up with enough wins to sound impressive in an ad campaign, and Jordan could easily reap the benefits of their Tony love.

Steve Kazee is something of a wildcard.  On the one hand, he is giving a very moving performance in the most critically lauded new musical of the season, and the buzz around Once certainly isn’t hurting his chances.  On the other, for whatever reason the critical love of Once doesn’t quite extend into recognition for its cast (Kazee and costar Cristin Milioti were both conspicuously absent from the Drama Desk nominee list).  Because it is a new work and not a known property, I think some people are overlooking how much of the show’s success is due to its leads, instead of being wholly generated by the very strong book and score. 

I’d say the two gentlemen most likely to hear their name called on Tony night are Danny Burstein and Jeremy Jordan.  Burstein deserves the award for his revelatory and heart-breaking performance in Follies, a production the entire theatrical community went gaga over last fall and will certainly want to see recognized.  Burstein’s role is the hardest of the show’s central quartet to make interesting, making it all the more impressive that he ended up being one of the best parts of that much celebrated production.  But Jeremy Jordan has had a star-is-born season, and the Tonys love to celebrate talented newcomers as much as seasoned pros.  As much as I loved Burstein (I've been saying he needs to win this award since September), I am starting to suspect that this is Jordan's year.

Will Win:  Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
Should Win:  Danny Burstein, Follies

That’s all for the acting awards.  The only predictions I have left to make are the production categories, so look for my picks for the season’s best revivals soon!

In the meantime, here are the rest of my Tony prediction articles in case you missed them:

Best Actress

Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

Now we arrive at the two most competitive categories of the year:  Best Actress in a Play and Best Actress in a Musical.  With so many sterling performances by Broadway’s leading ladies this year, choosing just one seems criminal, but I will do my best.  Please keep in mind my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominees (at least in the play categories); and 2) Who will win is not necessarily the same as who should win, a difference I will explain in more detail throughout the body of the article.

Best Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur; Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow; Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities; Linda Lavin, The Lyons; Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Where do I even begin?  All five of these women gave critically lauded performances in well-reviewed productions, meaning the eventual winner will be determined as much by buzz as actual merit.  While all of the nominees are Tony-worthy, I think Cynthia Nixon has the least chance of winning.  Yes, critics adored Nixon’s turn as a college professor with terminal cancer, and the same role won actress Kathleen Chalfant every acting prize she was eligible for when Wit premiered Off-Broadway 14 years ago.  But with her show now closed, Nixon doesn’t have the chance to remind Tony voters how well she stacks up against the competition.

Linda Lavin and Nina Arianda have the advantage of being in currently running plays, but they somehow haven’t amassed the same level of buzz as their competition.  Lavin famously passed on the Broadway transfers of both Follies and Other Desert Cities in order to do The Lyons, and despite her tour de force performance the show hasn’t really caught on with critics or audiences.  Nina Arianda is two for two when it comes to Tony nods (she was also nominated for her Broadway debut last year), but Venus in Fur opened so long ago that I fear she’ll be forgotten despite Venus being in the running for Best Play.  She could be a dark horse candidate, but by definition dark horses are not the most likely winners.

The real contenders are Tracie Bennett and Stockard Channing, who are both giving the type of over the top diva performances Tony voters love.  Channing finds every shade imaginable in her domineering mother character from Other Desert Cities, and for much of the season was considered the front runner for this award.  But then Tracie Bennett arrived and became the talk of the town for her performance as a drug-addled, aging Judy Garland in End of the Rainbow.  Convincingly portraying a beloved icon with such ardent fans is no small feat, and since she utterly dominates Rainbow (as opposed to the more ensemble-oriented Other Desert Cities), I think the Best Actress trophy is Bennett’s to lose.  I’ll be rooting for Arianda, who has twice proven she is an extraordinary talent and a superstar in the making, but the smart money is on Bennett.

Will Win:  Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

Should Win:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Best Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Jan Maxwell, Follies; Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess; Cristin Milioti, Once; Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde

There is no doubt in my mind Kelli O’Hara, with her versatility and crystal-clear singing voice, will eventually win herself a Tony.  But it won’t be for Nice Work If You Can Get It, an underwhelming musical that is by no means her best work.  Similarly, if Laura Osnes continues to improve the way she has since getting her big break in the last Grease revival, she will someday find herself in possession of the coveted statuette.  But with Bonnie & Clyde unfairly trounced by critics and having shuttered ages ago, Osnes is also effectively out of the running.

The remaining three contenders have each done fantastic work this season, and a convincing argument could be made for any one of them to win Best Actress.  Ultimately, I think being a first-time nominee will keep the sensational Cristin Milioti from winning, with the Tony voters reasoning that she has plenty of time left to win the award.  That is not a knock against her amazing performance in Once; I would argue she is the best thing about that incredibly strong show.

But perennial Tony favorites Audra McDonald and Jan Maxwell have both exceeded all possible expectations this year.  Jan Maxwell was a revelation in Follies, stopping the show twice with her two big numbers.  She made the acerbic Phyllis endlessly compelling, slowly stripping away character’s icy veneer to reveal the damaged soul underneath.  It was a master class in musical theatre acting, and combined with the fact that this four-time nominee has never won, that makes her the one the beat in many people’s eyes.

Meanwhile Audra McDonald, the universally beloved singing actress, has one Tony for each of Maxwell’s nominations.  It would be perfectly logically for the Tony voters to spread the wealth, especially since we all knew McDonald would be excellent in Porgy and Bess, a role she was born to play.  But it is impossible to comprehend just how amazing her Bess is without seeing it, and I suspect even her biggest fans would find themselves surprised by what a masterful portrayal it is.  McDonald conveys more with her posture and body language than most actresses can in an entire song, and some of the most riveting moments in Porgy are the dialogue-free scenes where you watch Bess’ inner struggle to overcome her self-destructive tendencies.  And when McDonald does sing, she achieves such operatic heights of vocal technique and emotion that it is truly transcendent.

I’ve been agonizing over which actress is more deserving for months, and in many ways the race is still too close to call.  But call it I must, and my gut is favoring McDonald, despite her almost unprecedented four previous wins.  Unlike Maxwell, whose show closed in January, McDonald is still performing nightly and therefore reminding the Tony voters of her nearly unmatched talent.  Her Bess is one for the ages, and probably her best work to date, an especially high compliment when those four other Tony Awards are taken into consideration.  But if ever there was a tie for Best Actress, this would be the year.

Will Win:  Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess

Should Win:  Audra McDonald AND Jan Maxwell (they are both perfection)

Check back soon for my Best Actor predictions.  Until then, catch up on my previous Tony articles:

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress
Best Score and Book
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are getting closer every minute, and if I want to finish these prediction articles before next weekend I don’t have time for clever intros!  As you read on, please remember my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win (a distinction that will be further discussed in the body of the article).

Moving right along, here come the supporting men.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nominees:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher; Michael Cumpsty, End of the Rainbow; Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman; Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

I’m not sure how Michael Cumpsty managed to pull himself out from under the massive shadow cast by Tracie Bennett in End of the Rainbow, but good on him for securing one of the five Best Featured Actor nominations.  I hope he is proud of his accomplishment, because a nomination is where his Tony journey ends.  I suspect the same is true for Tom Edden in One Man, Two Guvnors.  While the British import received a host of nominations, I just don’t think it has enough industry buzz to actually win any of the big awards, especially with such strong competition among this season’s plays.

Jeremy Shamos plays two miserable human beings in Clybourne Park, and the fact that he can make you understand where they’re coming from is a testament to both his performance and Bruce Norris’ writing.  But the lack of nominations for his costars seems to indicate Tony voters are more impressed with the work as a whole then the individual performances, even though all are stellar.  Shamos is a long shot for the Featured Actor trophy, but he does have a shot, which is more than I’ll say for both Cumpsty and Edden.

I think this race boils down to Christian Borle versus Andrew Garfield, which raises the eternal acting debate of comedy versus drama.  Which is more difficult, and therefore more worthy of praise when executed successfully?  Tony voters have shown a proven bias toward both serious drama and Hollywood stars making strong Broadway debuts.  In Death of a Salesman, Garfield holds his own against some established stage veterans while bringing new life and immediacy to a well-known Arthur Miller role.  This same trick won Scarlett Johansson a Tony two years back, and I think Garfield has a good chance of repeating her success. 

Borle, on the other hand, has been handed a gem of a role as Peter and the Starcatcher’s scenery chewing villain Black Stache.  After years of solid performances, Stache seems to be Borle’s breakout role, and his work on NBC’s Smash has raised his profile to the point where Tony voters can pretend that in picking him, they are honoring one of the Hollywood stars they love so much.  Borle is also the well-liked Starcatcher’s best shot at an actual win, and I think we’ll be hearing him gush about what a fantastic year he’s had when they call him up to the podium on Tony night.  Poor Mr. Garfield will just have to count his upcoming Amazing Spider-Man royalties in consolation.

Will Win:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher

Should Win:  Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman (not because Borle is bad, but because in this case I genuinely believe what Garfield accomplished was harder)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Nominees:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess; Michael Cerveris, Evita; David Alan Grier, Porgy and Bess; Michael McGarth, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

I was distinctly unimpressed with David Alan Grier’s performance when I saw Porgy and Bess back in January.  The actor didn’t seem to have a proper handle on his character, and the Sportin’ Life who sang “There’s a Boat That’s Leaving Soon” was vastly different than the one who proclaimed “It Ain’t Necessarily So.”  Revisiting the show last month, I’m happy to report that Grier has smoothed out a lot of inconsistencies in his characterization, but I still doubt most voters would consider the performance Tony-worthy. 

Michael Cerveris is probably the best thing about the current Evita revival, at least from an acting standpoint.  Unfortunately, the role of Juan Peron is even more underwritten than most Andrew Lloyd Webber roles, and even an actor Cerveris’ caliber can’t quite hide the fact that he’s working with pretty poor material.  Similarly, Michael McGarth deserves a better show than the misguided Nice Work.  Despite being the most reliably funny aspect of the show, I suspect a general indifference towards Nice Work will keep McGarth out of serious contention.

Phillip Boykin deserves to win this award, as his supremely menacing Crown is the sort of operatic presence Porgy and Bess demands even in this revised musical version.  Boykin is the only cast member who can hold his own vocally against Audra McDonald, and he breathes full life into what could easily become a cartoonishly evil character.  If you need any proof of how well Boykin does his job, just listen to the cheers that erupt from the audience when Norm Lewis’ Porgy finally triumphs over the brute.

But a part of me fears that Josh Young might just rain on Boykin’s parade.  Young is the only nominee in this category I haven’t personally seen, as he was out the night I saw Superstar.  In fact, he was out for a large portion of the preview period and the month immediately following.  While I know these actors are only human, missing so many shows so soon in the run does make me question someone’s Tony worthiness.  Theatre acting is about being able to turn in a stellar performance eight times a week; if you can’t keep yourself healthy, or worse yet blow your voice due to poor singing technique, then I don’t think you’re ready for theatre’s highest honor.  The fact that Young got nominated despite all his missed performances indicates he is either excellent receiving a large pity vote, or both.  I’m going to go with my heart and predict Boykin wins, but I would not be surprised if Young’s name is called on June 10^th instead.

Will & Should Win:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess

Catch up on my other Tony predictions below:

Featured Actress
Book & Score
Direction & Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

Now we get to the meat of the Tonys, the acting awards.  Given the sheer volume of eligible work, someone always gets snubbed when the nominations are handed out, and even then there are still several deserving candidates for each statuette.  Before reading any father, please remember my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win, especially in the acting categories.  As always, I will point out those discrepancies in the body of the article.

Since any gentleman knows that its ladies first, here are my predictions for the Best Supporting Actress categories.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Linda Emond, Death of a Salesman; Spencer Kayden, Don’t Dress for Dinner; Celia Keenan-Bolger, Peter and the Starcatcher; Judith Light, Other Desert Cities; Condola Rashad, Stick Fly

Right off the bat, I think we can count out Spencer Kayden and Condola Rashad.  Kayden is the only bright spot in a critical and commercial failure, and if it weren’t produced by the not-for-profit Roundabout Theatre Company I’m sure Don’t Dress for Dinner would have already posted a closing notice.  Rashad could be called a dark horse candidate, but while critics loved her, Stick Fly as a whole didn’t make much of an impression and closed months ago.  One of the biggest advantages a Tony nominee can have is being in a currently running show, which leaves Rashad with an uphill battle that I doubt she can win.

While I have not personally seen Peter and the Starcatcher, my understanding is that all of the actors play multiple roles, which always impresses Tony voters and is a major plus for Celia Keenan-Bolger.  Unfortunately, Peter isn’t as “serious” a work as Death of a Salesman or Other Desert Cities, which probably negates any advantage the multiple role trick gave her.  In straight plays, Tony voters tend to reward dramatic acting or its exact opposite, full-on farce; anything in-between like Peter goes underappreciated.

If we rule out Keenan-Bolger, we are left with Judith Light and Linda Emond, with the edge definitely going to the latter.  Emond is clearly the female lead in Salesman, with all of the accompanying stage time and character development, giving her more and better material to work with than her fellow nominees.  This same situation led Nikki M. James to a somewhat surprising but wholly deserved Featured Actress in a Musical win last year, and I expect a similar outcome for Emond.  And lest you think it all comes down to politics, I have seen Salesman and can assure you she is devastatingly good, easily holding her own against Phillip Seymour Hoffman and making even the play’s most famous lines sound fresh and alive.

Will & Should Win:  Linda Emond, Death of a Salesman

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Elizabeth A. Davis, Once; Jayne Houdyshell, Follies; Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Jessie Mueller, On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost the Musical

For me, this is a somewhat odd list of nominees.  It’s not that I think any of the included ladies are bad, but I don’t quite understand what some of them did to edge out other equally fine performances.  For instance, as hilarious as she was singing “Broadway Baby,” was Jayne Houdyshell really that much better than her Follies costars Elaine Page or Terri White?  And how did Elizabeth A. Davis, even with her striking good looks and beautiful singing voice, get herself nominated when the rest of the ensemble of Once went unrecognized?  I suspect I am not the only one who feels this way, and it is a sentiment that will probably prevent either of them from leaving the Beacon theatre a winning next Sunday.

Now, I hesitate to say I don’t want Da’Vine Joy Randolph to win, but…I don’t want her to win.  I haven’t seen her in Ghost, and the problem is I don’t need to in order to know exactly what her performance is like.  I’m sure she’s sassy, fires off a succession of one-liners, and sings the hell out of her big, gospel-tinged solo.  Add in one or two “serious” moments masquerading as character depth, and you have the same performance given by almost every featured black actress in the past ten years.  It’s such a cliché that someone even wrote a song about it, although in fairness to the writers of Ghost they at least had the decency to make Randolph’s character integral to the plot.  But it still isn’t the sort of thing that should be rewarded with Tony Awards, especially because such a win will only encourage musical theatre writers to continue using this stereotype rather than creating roles of substance for black women.

Judy Kaye is perfectly fine in Nice Work If You Can Get It, but I don’t think this role will net the Tony Award-winner a second statuette.  The show as a whole is too run-of-the-mill, and Kaye doesn’t do enough to rise above that.  On the other hand, Jessie Mueller did rise above her subpar show and gave one of the most praised supporting turns of the season.  Everyone who actually saw On a Clear Day agrees that Mueller’s big number was the highlight of the evening and a genuine showstopper.  Plus, Broadway loves a Cinderella story, and what could be more fairy tale-esque than a young woman playing the lead in her Broadway debut, stealing the show, and winning a Tony for it?

Will & Should Win:  Jessie Mueller, On a Clear Day You Can See Forever

That’s all for now.  Check back soon to see which Featured Actors should be practicing their acceptance speeches.  And check out the rest of my Tony predictions here:

Score &Book

Direction& Choreography

2012 Tony Nominations React

Emmy-winning Broadway veterans Jim Parsons and Kristin Chenoweth announce the 2012 Tony Award nominations.

The Tony Award nominations came out yesterday, making it the second most important day of the entire Broadway season (the first being the day the awards are actually handed out).  In case you somehow missed them, I’ve listed the nominees in the Big 12 categories below, with the starred names indicating the nominees I correctly predicted.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
*Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher
Michael Cumpsty, End of the Rainbow
Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors
*Andrew Garfield, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
*Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
*Linda Emond, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Spencer Kayden, Don’t Dress for Dinner
*Celia Keenan-Bolger, Peter and the Starcatcher
*Judith Light, Other Desert Cities
*Condola Rashad, Stick Fly

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
*Phillip Boykin, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
*Michael Cerveris, Evita
*David Alan Grier, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
Michael McGrath, Nice Work If You Can Get It
*Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Elizabeth A. Davis, Once
Jayne Houdyshell, Follies
*Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It
*Jessie Mueller, On A Clear Day You Can See Forever
*Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost the Musical

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
*James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors
*Philip Seymour Hoffman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
*James Earl Jones, Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
Frank Langella, Man and Boy
John Lithgow, The Columnist

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
*Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur
*Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow
*Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities
*Linda Lavin, The Lyons
*Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
*Danny Burstein, Follies
*Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
*Steve Kazee, Once
*Norm Lewis, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
*Ron Raines, Follies

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
*Jan Maxwell, Follies
*Audra McDonald, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
*Cristin Milioti, Once
*Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde

Best Revival of a Play

*Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
*Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
*Master Class
*Wit

Best Revival of a Musical

*Evita
*Follies
*The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
*Jesus Christ Superstar

Best Play

*Clybourne Park
*Other Desert Cities
*Peter and the Starcatcher
*Venus in Fur

Best Musical
Leap of Faith
*Newsies
*Nice Work If You Can Get It
*Once

I have to say, I’m pretty pleased with myself.  I correctly guessed 46 of 56 nominees, or an 82% average for those of you keeping score at home.  And when it comes to the four production categories (Best Play, Musical, Play Revival, and Musical Revival), I did even better, predicting 11 out of 12 eventual nominees.  Or 10.5 out of 12 if you want to get picky, since I had listed Master Class as my runner-up for Best Play Revival.  Apparently Tony voters don’t appreciate stunt casting in their Tennessee Williams plays.

We’ll dissect who has the best chances of winning at a later date, but for now here are my gut reactions to this year’s nominations:

- I am saddened to see play scores taking up two of the four Best Score nominations, mostly because I think it’s a sad comment on the writing being done for the musical theatre these days.  Too many new musicals rely on preexisting scores that are ineligible for the Tony (that would be you, Once), and the ones that do have new scores aren’t all that memorable.  I don’t think we lack the talent to write great scores; rather, I think these composers are being overlooked in favor of less talented people who can churn out a serviceable movie adaptation rather than a more innovative and therefore challenging theatrical score.

- I am thrilled to see Norm Lewis land his first Tony nomination.  Long recognized as an incredibly gifted vocalist, Lewis’ talents as an actor have been often overlooked, and it’s great to see him receive this kind of acknowledgement.

- On a similar note, good for Laura Osnes scoring a Best Actress nomination in a very competitive category.  At this point, I think we can officially forgive her for using that awful Grease: You’re the One That I Want reality show as a starting point for her Broadway career.  She has definitely proven that she has the talent to back up that lucky break.

- Although it did well in other categories, I’m really glad to see One Man, Two Guvnors excluded from the Best Play category.  It is about time the Tony voters began encouraging homegrown American playwrights after years of giving the Best Play trophy to slickly produced British imports of questionable artistic merit (*cough*War Horse*cough*).

- I’m shocked the critically reviled Leap of Faith managed to land one of the four Best Musical nominations.  It just goes to show you how weak the competition in that category was this year.  The fact that it can land such a high honor as its only nomination nominations proves that most of the exciting work being done this year was in revivals and straight plays.

- I’m not at all surprised but still very happy to see such a strong showing from last fall’s Follies.  While I haven’t seen all of this spring’s musicals (including the much ballyhooed Once), that Stephen Sondheim-James Goldman masterpiece is easily the best musical I’ve seen this season, revival or otherwise.

That’s all for now.  Get ready for a month of wild speculation and heated debate, as I’ve got plenty to say about all of the nominees and cannot wait to share it all with you!  And for a taste of what’s to come, here are my reviews of the Tony nominated productions I have personally seen.

Bonnie and Clyde

Evita
Jesus Christ Superstar
Lysistrata Jones (only listed here because of its completely undeserved Best Book nomination)
Newsies
Porgy and Bess
Venus in Fur

*I saw Follies (three times, in fact) before I started this blog, hence it’s exclusion.  In place of a review, just imagine me gushing praise for every conceivably aspect of the show for 1000 words*

My Nominees for the 2012 Tony Awards

Before the Tony Awards nominations are announced tomorrow morning, I thought I would compile a list of my predictions for the eventual nominees.  While I certainly *hope* that you take the time to read all of my Tony Watch articles (the latest of which can be found here) on this same subject, this should provide an easy frame of reference for those of you who haven’t gotten to all of them yet.

Plus, it’s nice to take one final look back now that all the shows have opened and we can put everything in perspective.  And having an official list will make it easier to see how accurate my predictions actually are.  So here are my picks for all the major Tony categories, along with a Runner-Up that I could see knocking one of my nominees out of the running.

Andrew Garfield in Death of a Salesman

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman
Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher
Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park
Michael Esper, The Lyons
Thomas Sadoski, Other Desert Cities
Runner-Up:  Dick Latessa, The Lyons                           

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Angela Lansbury, The Best Man

Celia Keenan-Bolger, Peter and the Starcatcher

Condola Rashad, Stick Fly

Judith Light, Other Desert Cities

Linda Edmond, Death of a Salesman

Runner-Up:  Christina Kirk, Clybourne Park

Phillip Boykin in Porgy and Bess

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

David Alan Grier, Porgy and Bess

Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

Michael Cerveris, Evita

Patrick Page, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark

Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess

Runner-Up:  Tom Hewitt, Jesus Christ Superstar

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost

Elaine Page, Follies

Jessie Mueller, On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever

Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It

Melissa van der Schyff, Bonnie and Clyde

Runner-Up:  Terri White, Follies

Tracie Bennett in End of the Rainbow

Best Actor in a Play

Alan Rickman, Seminar
James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors
James Earl Jones, The Best Man
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman
Stacy Keach, Other Desert Cities
Runner-Up:  Hugh Dancy, Venus in Fur

Best Actress in a Play

Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Linda Lavin, The Lyons

Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities

Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

Runner-Up:  Jennifer Lim, Chinglish

Jan Maxwell in Follies

Best Actor in a Musical

Danny Burstein, Follies

Jeremy Jordan, Newsies/Bonnie and Clyde

Norm Lewis, Porgy and Bess

Rob Raines, Follies

Steve Kazee, Once

Runner-Up:  Raul Esparza, Leap of Faith

Best Actress in a Musical

Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess

Bernadette Peters, Follies

Cristin Milioti, Once

Jan Maxwell, Follies

Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It

Runner-Up:  Elena Roger, Evita

Elaine Paige and the boys of Follies

 Best Revival of a Play
The Best Man
Death of a Salesman
A Streetcar Named Desire
Wit
Runner-Up:  Master Class

Best Revival of a Musical

Evita

Follies

Jesus Christ Superstar

Porgy and Bess

Runner-Up:  Godspell

The cast of Newsies

Best Play

Clybourne Park
Other Desert Cities
Peter and the Starcatcher
Venus in Fur
Runner-Up:  The Lyons

Best Musical

Newsies

Nice Work If You Can Get It

Once

Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark

Runner-Up:  Bonnie and Clyde

Check back tomorrow morning to see how I did!