2012 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are getting closer every minute, and if I want to finish these prediction articles before next weekend I don’t have time for clever intros!  As you read on, please remember my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win (a distinction that will be further discussed in the body of the article).

Moving right along, here come the supporting men.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nominees:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher; Michael Cumpsty, End of the Rainbow; Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman; Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

I’m not sure how Michael Cumpsty managed to pull himself out from under the massive shadow cast by Tracie Bennett in End of the Rainbow, but good on him for securing one of the five Best Featured Actor nominations.  I hope he is proud of his accomplishment, because a nomination is where his Tony journey ends.  I suspect the same is true for Tom Edden in One Man, Two Guvnors.  While the British import received a host of nominations, I just don’t think it has enough industry buzz to actually win any of the big awards, especially with such strong competition among this season’s plays.

Jeremy Shamos plays two miserable human beings in Clybourne Park, and the fact that he can make you understand where they’re coming from is a testament to both his performance and Bruce Norris’ writing.  But the lack of nominations for his costars seems to indicate Tony voters are more impressed with the work as a whole then the individual performances, even though all are stellar.  Shamos is a long shot for the Featured Actor trophy, but he does have a shot, which is more than I’ll say for both Cumpsty and Edden.

I think this race boils down to Christian Borle versus Andrew Garfield, which raises the eternal acting debate of comedy versus drama.  Which is more difficult, and therefore more worthy of praise when executed successfully?  Tony voters have shown a proven bias toward both serious drama and Hollywood stars making strong Broadway debuts.  In Death of a Salesman, Garfield holds his own against some established stage veterans while bringing new life and immediacy to a well-known Arthur Miller role.  This same trick won Scarlett Johansson a Tony two years back, and I think Garfield has a good chance of repeating her success. 

Borle, on the other hand, has been handed a gem of a role as Peter and the Starcatcher’s scenery chewing villain Black Stache.  After years of solid performances, Stache seems to be Borle’s breakout role, and his work on NBC’s Smash has raised his profile to the point where Tony voters can pretend that in picking him, they are honoring one of the Hollywood stars they love so much.  Borle is also the well-liked Starcatcher’s best shot at an actual win, and I think we’ll be hearing him gush about what a fantastic year he’s had when they call him up to the podium on Tony night.  Poor Mr. Garfield will just have to count his upcoming Amazing Spider-Man royalties in consolation.

Will Win:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher

Should Win:  Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman (not because Borle is bad, but because in this case I genuinely believe what Garfield accomplished was harder)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Nominees:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess; Michael Cerveris, Evita; David Alan Grier, Porgy and Bess; Michael McGarth, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

I was distinctly unimpressed with David Alan Grier’s performance when I saw Porgy and Bess back in January.  The actor didn’t seem to have a proper handle on his character, and the Sportin’ Life who sang “There’s a Boat That’s Leaving Soon” was vastly different than the one who proclaimed “It Ain’t Necessarily So.”  Revisiting the show last month, I’m happy to report that Grier has smoothed out a lot of inconsistencies in his characterization, but I still doubt most voters would consider the performance Tony-worthy. 

Michael Cerveris is probably the best thing about the current Evita revival, at least from an acting standpoint.  Unfortunately, the role of Juan Peron is even more underwritten than most Andrew Lloyd Webber roles, and even an actor Cerveris’ caliber can’t quite hide the fact that he’s working with pretty poor material.  Similarly, Michael McGarth deserves a better show than the misguided Nice Work.  Despite being the most reliably funny aspect of the show, I suspect a general indifference towards Nice Work will keep McGarth out of serious contention.

Phillip Boykin deserves to win this award, as his supremely menacing Crown is the sort of operatic presence Porgy and Bess demands even in this revised musical version.  Boykin is the only cast member who can hold his own vocally against Audra McDonald, and he breathes full life into what could easily become a cartoonishly evil character.  If you need any proof of how well Boykin does his job, just listen to the cheers that erupt from the audience when Norm Lewis’ Porgy finally triumphs over the brute.

But a part of me fears that Josh Young might just rain on Boykin’s parade.  Young is the only nominee in this category I haven’t personally seen, as he was out the night I saw Superstar.  In fact, he was out for a large portion of the preview period and the month immediately following.  While I know these actors are only human, missing so many shows so soon in the run does make me question someone’s Tony worthiness.  Theatre acting is about being able to turn in a stellar performance eight times a week; if you can’t keep yourself healthy, or worse yet blow your voice due to poor singing technique, then I don’t think you’re ready for theatre’s highest honor.  The fact that Young got nominated despite all his missed performances indicates he is either excellent receiving a large pity vote, or both.  I’m going to go with my heart and predict Boykin wins, but I would not be surprised if Young’s name is called on June 10^th instead.

Will & Should Win:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess

Catch up on my other Tony predictions below:

Featured Actress
Book & Score
Direction & Choreography

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 3



Audra, wake up.  We have to go to the Tony Awards.  You got nominated for the gazillionth time.

Spring is upon us, and the mad dash to open before the Tony eligibility cutoff date has begun.  The past week has already seen three Broadway openings, and another eleven shows are scheduled to debut between now and the end of April.  It’s easy to fall behind during this crowded season, so if I want to discuss which shows have the best shot at those coveted Tony nominations (which of course I do), I’d better get crackin’. 

I should admit here that I have no means seen all of these shows, so a lot of these predictions are educated guesses based on industry buzz and past Tony nominating trends.  Which is actually the best way to go about it anyhow, as the shows most likely to score multiple nominations are not necessarily the same as the ones most deserving of those nominations.  If I somehow leave off your personal favorite, it doesn’t necessarily mean I thought it was bad, I just think it is unlikely to do well with the Tony voters.  So let’s pick up right where I left off several months ago, and tackle the shows in chronological order starting with:

An Evening with Patti LuPone and Mandy Patinkin

The Tony board has already announced that this concert and its two stars aren’t eligible in any of the existing award categories, although they could theoretically receive a Special Achievement Tony Award.  I find that unlikely, as the concert was good but not great, and both Patti and Mandy already have Tonys in recognition of their undeniable talent.

Bonnie and Clyde

In a purely merit-based system, Bonnie and Clyde would score several nominations despite having ended its run months ago, but closed shows have been historically handicapped when it comes to the Tonys.  Despite deserving a Best Musical nomination (it’s on par with a show like Memphis, a show which actually won that title two years ago), Bonnie and Clyde probably won’t be able to overcome all the awards politics standing between it and said nomination.  The score, easily the best one composer Frank Wildhorn has ever written, stands a much better chance of actually securing a nomination given the weak competition in the New Musical categories. 

The show’s two charismatic leads are unfortunately out of luck. Laura Osnes’ fine portrayal of Bonnie Parker doesn’t stand much of a chance in the incredibly competitive Best Actress in a Musical Character, which includes such favorites as Audra McDonald, Bernadette Peters, and Kelli O’Hara.  Rising star Jeremy Jordan almost certainly will be nominated for Best Actor, but it will be for his work in Newsies, not this.  But the ever resilient Wildhorn doesn’t seem fazed by any of this, and like a madman is readying a revival of his odious Jekyll and Hyde for another critical thrashing next season.

Stick Fly

The competition for Best Musical may be light, but the Best Play category is so overloaded with heavy hitting contenders that someone will surely get snubbed.  A play like Stick Fly, without any big name talent and only a lukewarm critical reception, doesn’t stand a chance of infiltrating the race, and it’s only real shot at Tony is a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Condola Rashad (daughter of the Tony-winning Phylicia Rashad).

On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever

Remember this show?  It opened to one of the worst critical drubbings of any show this season, closed soon thereafter, and was promptly forgotten by almost everyone.  I personally didn’t see the show, and I have a couple of friends who swear it was actually brilliant, though I find that hard to believe.  Taking an already problematic show, completely reconceptualizing it, and casting leading man Harry Connick Jr. in a role that robs him of his trademark southern boy charm doomed the show before it even started.  The only redeeming quality seems to have been a standout supporting performance by newcomer Jessie Mueller, a name I fully expect to be among the lucky nominees when they are announced on May 1^st.

Lysistrata Jones

Poor Lysistrata Jones.  It mistook encouraging reviews for its Off-Broadway run as permission to graduate to the big leagues, and suffered greatly for that presumption.  Despite a rave review from Times critic Ben Brantley (who apparently saw a different show than literally everyone else), the show closed within a month of opening.  The general consensus is that the show, riddled with poor writing and unmemorable tunes, needed a major rewrite before attempting Broadway, and won’t really be a contender for this year’s awards.  A lack of competition could see Lysistrata undeservingly crop up among the Best Book or Best Score nominees, but every other aspect of it will and should be forgotten.

The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Porgy and Bess has proven to be one of the most divisive productions of the season, thanks mostly to Diane Paulus and Suzan-Lori Parks reconceiving a classic four hour opera as a two and a half hour book musical.  I’m not familiar with the opera, although given the quality of the show’s remaining music I can understand how cutting so much of George Gershwin’s rhapsodic score would anger some people.  But as far as I’m concerned, what’s left is still an incredibly moving piece of theatre that easily earns a place among the four Best Musical Revival nominees.  There’s also some great production design on display, especially when it comes to the lights, and a technical nomination or two for this lavish Porgy certainly isn’t out of the question. 

All but guaranteed is a near-unprecedented seventh Tony nomination for star Audra McDonald, who is giving the performance of a lifetime as Bess and is universally beloved by the theatrical community.  McDonald can safely start shopping for a Tony gown now, as the only real question here is if the four-time Tony winner can triumph over the equally amazing Jan Maxwell from Follies.  As Porgy, Norm Lewis didn’t receive the critical love letters afforded McDonald, but turns in strong work and will hopefully be able to finally add “Tony nominee” to his resume after this season’s nominations.  And Phillip Boykin, whose towering work as the villainous Crown comes closest to matching McDonald’s level of excellence, should make an appearance among the Supporting Actor nominees.

I have to stop there for now, but please continue to check back over the coming weeks for more speculation on Tony-worthiness as the month marches on.