2012 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

Now we arrive at the two most competitive categories of the year:  Best Actress in a Play and Best Actress in a Musical.  With so many sterling performances by Broadway’s leading ladies this year, choosing just one seems criminal, but I will do my best.  Please keep in mind my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominees (at least in the play categories); and 2) Who will win is not necessarily the same as who should win, a difference I will explain in more detail throughout the body of the article.

Best Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur; Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow; Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities; Linda Lavin, The Lyons; Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Where do I even begin?  All five of these women gave critically lauded performances in well-reviewed productions, meaning the eventual winner will be determined as much by buzz as actual merit.  While all of the nominees are Tony-worthy, I think Cynthia Nixon has the least chance of winning.  Yes, critics adored Nixon’s turn as a college professor with terminal cancer, and the same role won actress Kathleen Chalfant every acting prize she was eligible for when Wit premiered Off-Broadway 14 years ago.  But with her show now closed, Nixon doesn’t have the chance to remind Tony voters how well she stacks up against the competition.

Linda Lavin and Nina Arianda have the advantage of being in currently running plays, but they somehow haven’t amassed the same level of buzz as their competition.  Lavin famously passed on the Broadway transfers of both Follies and Other Desert Cities in order to do The Lyons, and despite her tour de force performance the show hasn’t really caught on with critics or audiences.  Nina Arianda is two for two when it comes to Tony nods (she was also nominated for her Broadway debut last year), but Venus in Fur opened so long ago that I fear she’ll be forgotten despite Venus being in the running for Best Play.  She could be a dark horse candidate, but by definition dark horses are not the most likely winners.

The real contenders are Tracie Bennett and Stockard Channing, who are both giving the type of over the top diva performances Tony voters love.  Channing finds every shade imaginable in her domineering mother character from Other Desert Cities, and for much of the season was considered the front runner for this award.  But then Tracie Bennett arrived and became the talk of the town for her performance as a drug-addled, aging Judy Garland in End of the Rainbow.  Convincingly portraying a beloved icon with such ardent fans is no small feat, and since she utterly dominates Rainbow (as opposed to the more ensemble-oriented Other Desert Cities), I think the Best Actress trophy is Bennett’s to lose.  I’ll be rooting for Arianda, who has twice proven she is an extraordinary talent and a superstar in the making, but the smart money is on Bennett.

Will Win:  Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

Should Win:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Best Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Jan Maxwell, Follies; Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess; Cristin Milioti, Once; Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde

There is no doubt in my mind Kelli O’Hara, with her versatility and crystal-clear singing voice, will eventually win herself a Tony.  But it won’t be for Nice Work If You Can Get It, an underwhelming musical that is by no means her best work.  Similarly, if Laura Osnes continues to improve the way she has since getting her big break in the last Grease revival, she will someday find herself in possession of the coveted statuette.  But with Bonnie & Clyde unfairly trounced by critics and having shuttered ages ago, Osnes is also effectively out of the running.

The remaining three contenders have each done fantastic work this season, and a convincing argument could be made for any one of them to win Best Actress.  Ultimately, I think being a first-time nominee will keep the sensational Cristin Milioti from winning, with the Tony voters reasoning that she has plenty of time left to win the award.  That is not a knock against her amazing performance in Once; I would argue she is the best thing about that incredibly strong show.

But perennial Tony favorites Audra McDonald and Jan Maxwell have both exceeded all possible expectations this year.  Jan Maxwell was a revelation in Follies, stopping the show twice with her two big numbers.  She made the acerbic Phyllis endlessly compelling, slowly stripping away character’s icy veneer to reveal the damaged soul underneath.  It was a master class in musical theatre acting, and combined with the fact that this four-time nominee has never won, that makes her the one the beat in many people’s eyes.

Meanwhile Audra McDonald, the universally beloved singing actress, has one Tony for each of Maxwell’s nominations.  It would be perfectly logically for the Tony voters to spread the wealth, especially since we all knew McDonald would be excellent in Porgy and Bess, a role she was born to play.  But it is impossible to comprehend just how amazing her Bess is without seeing it, and I suspect even her biggest fans would find themselves surprised by what a masterful portrayal it is.  McDonald conveys more with her posture and body language than most actresses can in an entire song, and some of the most riveting moments in Porgy are the dialogue-free scenes where you watch Bess’ inner struggle to overcome her self-destructive tendencies.  And when McDonald does sing, she achieves such operatic heights of vocal technique and emotion that it is truly transcendent.

I’ve been agonizing over which actress is more deserving for months, and in many ways the race is still too close to call.  But call it I must, and my gut is favoring McDonald, despite her almost unprecedented four previous wins.  Unlike Maxwell, whose show closed in January, McDonald is still performing nightly and therefore reminding the Tony voters of her nearly unmatched talent.  Her Bess is one for the ages, and probably her best work to date, an especially high compliment when those four other Tony Awards are taken into consideration.  But if ever there was a tie for Best Actress, this would be the year.

Will Win:  Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess

Should Win:  Audra McDonald AND Jan Maxwell (they are both perfection)

Check back soon for my Best Actor predictions.  Until then, catch up on my previous Tony articles:

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress
Best Score and Book
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Before I continue my 2012 Tony Award predictions, here’s a quick recap of the two caveats I elaborated on in my first article:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win (reasons for any variance in the two will be elaborated in the article).

Since Tony night is fast approaching, let’s not waste any more time!

Best Book of a Musical

Nominees:  Douglas Carter Beane, Lysistrata Jones; Harvey Fierstein, Newsies; Joe DiPietro, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Enda Walsh, Once

I died a little inside when I read that Douglas Carter Beane was nominated for his atrocious book to Lysistrata Jones.  Beane managed to completely remove the anti-war allegory that’s allowed the Greek Lysistrata to withstand the test of time, and replaced it with poorly developed characters and painfully unfunny one-liners.  He doesn’t deserve to be nominated, and rest assured there is no way he can possibly win (the fact that Lysistrata closed months ago is the final nail in Beane’s coffin).

I would put Harvey Fierstein’s libretto for Newsies and Joe DiPietro’s book for Nice Work on the same level artistically.  Both are perfectly serviceable scripts, free of any glaring plot holes or structural weaknesses.  Both segue nicely into their respective musical numbers while simultaneously crafting characters with the illusion of depth, even if many of them lack actual substance.  Unfortunately, neither libretto takes the extra steps necessary to qualify as Tony-worthy.  The book scenes in both shows primarily serve as filler in between the musical numbers, rather than adding much of substance to their respective shows.

By contrast, Enda Walsh’s book for Once approaches the depth and quality of a play script.  Despite some very long scenes (at least by musical theatre standards), the Once libretto remains engrossing and provides information that greatly enhances the already strong emotional impact of the show’s songs.  Once relies on such a delicately established mood that it would not work without the Walsh’s first rate contributions, and he will deservedly take home the Tony for his efforts on June 10^th.

Will & Should Win:  Enda Walsh, Once

Best Original Score

Nominees:  Frank Wildhorn & Don Black, Bonnie and Clyde; Alan Menken & Jack Feldman, Newsies; Grant Olding, One Man, Two Guvnors; Wayne Barker & Rick Elice, Peter and the Starcatcher

I could (and probably should) write an entire blog entry about the sorry state of musical theatre composition.  The fact that two of the four Best Original Score nominations went to plays instead of musicals proves how little good work is being done in this area.  Unfortunately, the year’s strongest score – the haunting and beautiful Once – was written for another medium and is therefore ineligible.  But while the Tony committee has shown a willingness to nominate play scores in the past few years, I don’t think they are prepared to actually give the prize to a non-musical, which rules out both One Man, Two Guvnors and Peter and the Starcatcher. 

Which leaves Bonnie & Clyde and Newsies, with their oft-nominated but so far unrewarded composers.  Now, if you had told me a year ago that Frank “Modulation” Wildhorn would be the most deserving of a Best Score Tony, I would have laughed in your face.  But this time round Wildhorn wrote a genuinely theatrical score, with many of the songs containing actual narrative action rather than an endless series of ever-higher money notes.  He has successfully fused the bluegrass and folk idioms with show music, and many of the show’s ballads are genuinely beautiful as opposed to his usual manufactured bombast.  All of this, combined with weak competition, makes Bonnie & Clyde legitimately the strongest work nominated this year.

Unfortunately for Wildhorn, there’s clearly no overcoming the tarnished reputation his past work has earned him.  Having his name on the marquee caused Bonnie & Clyde to be unfairly trashed by critics, and the show closed within a month of opening.  Meanwhile Newsies was embraced by critics and has been playing to near sell-out business, and its composer Alan Menken has managed to maintain a high reputation among the theatre elite despite some questionable shows of his own.  For all of its repetitiveness and overly-earnest emotion, Newsies does feature several catchy numbers and one genuinely inventive solo for its leading lady.  And since Menken has never won the big award, the committee will likely give him a Tony statuette that will in name be for this show, but will really be for his body of work.

Will Win:  Alan Menken, Newsies

Should Win:  Frank Wildhorn, Bonnie & Clyde (yes, I really just typed that)

That’s it for now.  Join me next time as I begin dissecting which performers have done award-worthy work this past season.

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 3



Audra, wake up.  We have to go to the Tony Awards.  You got nominated for the gazillionth time.

Spring is upon us, and the mad dash to open before the Tony eligibility cutoff date has begun.  The past week has already seen three Broadway openings, and another eleven shows are scheduled to debut between now and the end of April.  It’s easy to fall behind during this crowded season, so if I want to discuss which shows have the best shot at those coveted Tony nominations (which of course I do), I’d better get crackin’. 

I should admit here that I have no means seen all of these shows, so a lot of these predictions are educated guesses based on industry buzz and past Tony nominating trends.  Which is actually the best way to go about it anyhow, as the shows most likely to score multiple nominations are not necessarily the same as the ones most deserving of those nominations.  If I somehow leave off your personal favorite, it doesn’t necessarily mean I thought it was bad, I just think it is unlikely to do well with the Tony voters.  So let’s pick up right where I left off several months ago, and tackle the shows in chronological order starting with:

An Evening with Patti LuPone and Mandy Patinkin

The Tony board has already announced that this concert and its two stars aren’t eligible in any of the existing award categories, although they could theoretically receive a Special Achievement Tony Award.  I find that unlikely, as the concert was good but not great, and both Patti and Mandy already have Tonys in recognition of their undeniable talent.

Bonnie and Clyde

In a purely merit-based system, Bonnie and Clyde would score several nominations despite having ended its run months ago, but closed shows have been historically handicapped when it comes to the Tonys.  Despite deserving a Best Musical nomination (it’s on par with a show like Memphis, a show which actually won that title two years ago), Bonnie and Clyde probably won’t be able to overcome all the awards politics standing between it and said nomination.  The score, easily the best one composer Frank Wildhorn has ever written, stands a much better chance of actually securing a nomination given the weak competition in the New Musical categories. 

The show’s two charismatic leads are unfortunately out of luck. Laura Osnes’ fine portrayal of Bonnie Parker doesn’t stand much of a chance in the incredibly competitive Best Actress in a Musical Character, which includes such favorites as Audra McDonald, Bernadette Peters, and Kelli O’Hara.  Rising star Jeremy Jordan almost certainly will be nominated for Best Actor, but it will be for his work in Newsies, not this.  But the ever resilient Wildhorn doesn’t seem fazed by any of this, and like a madman is readying a revival of his odious Jekyll and Hyde for another critical thrashing next season.

Stick Fly

The competition for Best Musical may be light, but the Best Play category is so overloaded with heavy hitting contenders that someone will surely get snubbed.  A play like Stick Fly, without any big name talent and only a lukewarm critical reception, doesn’t stand a chance of infiltrating the race, and it’s only real shot at Tony is a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Condola Rashad (daughter of the Tony-winning Phylicia Rashad).

On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever

Remember this show?  It opened to one of the worst critical drubbings of any show this season, closed soon thereafter, and was promptly forgotten by almost everyone.  I personally didn’t see the show, and I have a couple of friends who swear it was actually brilliant, though I find that hard to believe.  Taking an already problematic show, completely reconceptualizing it, and casting leading man Harry Connick Jr. in a role that robs him of his trademark southern boy charm doomed the show before it even started.  The only redeeming quality seems to have been a standout supporting performance by newcomer Jessie Mueller, a name I fully expect to be among the lucky nominees when they are announced on May 1^st.

Lysistrata Jones

Poor Lysistrata Jones.  It mistook encouraging reviews for its Off-Broadway run as permission to graduate to the big leagues, and suffered greatly for that presumption.  Despite a rave review from Times critic Ben Brantley (who apparently saw a different show than literally everyone else), the show closed within a month of opening.  The general consensus is that the show, riddled with poor writing and unmemorable tunes, needed a major rewrite before attempting Broadway, and won’t really be a contender for this year’s awards.  A lack of competition could see Lysistrata undeservingly crop up among the Best Book or Best Score nominees, but every other aspect of it will and should be forgotten.

The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Porgy and Bess has proven to be one of the most divisive productions of the season, thanks mostly to Diane Paulus and Suzan-Lori Parks reconceiving a classic four hour opera as a two and a half hour book musical.  I’m not familiar with the opera, although given the quality of the show’s remaining music I can understand how cutting so much of George Gershwin’s rhapsodic score would anger some people.  But as far as I’m concerned, what’s left is still an incredibly moving piece of theatre that easily earns a place among the four Best Musical Revival nominees.  There’s also some great production design on display, especially when it comes to the lights, and a technical nomination or two for this lavish Porgy certainly isn’t out of the question. 

All but guaranteed is a near-unprecedented seventh Tony nomination for star Audra McDonald, who is giving the performance of a lifetime as Bess and is universally beloved by the theatrical community.  McDonald can safely start shopping for a Tony gown now, as the only real question here is if the four-time Tony winner can triumph over the equally amazing Jan Maxwell from Follies.  As Porgy, Norm Lewis didn’t receive the critical love letters afforded McDonald, but turns in strong work and will hopefully be able to finally add “Tony nominee” to his resume after this season’s nominations.  And Phillip Boykin, whose towering work as the villainous Crown comes closest to matching McDonald’s level of excellence, should make an appearance among the Supporting Actor nominees.

I have to stop there for now, but please continue to check back over the coming weeks for more speculation on Tony-worthiness as the month marches on.

Bang Bang, You're Dead

Well, that was fast. After less than a month on Broadway, Bonnie & Clyde will go the way of the dodo, as it was announced that the show will close at the end of the month. This news isn't entirely unexpected, as it was reported last week the show only had tickets on sale through December 30th, although at the time producers wouldn't comment on whether or not that meant the show was ending its run. Clearly it did, and the show will become the first official casualty of the 2011-2012 season, beating out Private Lives by a whole day. (Roundabout's production of Man and Boy and Manhattan Theatre Club's Master Class don't count, as they completed their limited runs as scheduled.)

I have to say, I really think it was undeserved, and I *never* thought I would say that about a Frank Wildhorn show. Like everyone else, the press was biased against the show because of its composer (and Wonderland certainly didn't help his case). I honestly believe that had the exact same show, with the same cast and same staging, had opened with Wildhorn's name on the marquee, it would have received more encouraging reviews. Actually, the reviews really weren't that bad, but because Brantley (unfairly) ripped the show apart in the Times, the press treated the show like it had been universally panned.

I personally think the producers are making a big mistake by throwing in the towel so early. While the grosses haven't been spectacular, they also haven't been abysmal for a small(ish) show that has a relatively low capitalization of $6 million. Given the weak assortment on new musicals on the horizon, Bonnie & Clyde wouldn't have much competition among avid theatregoers who have seen most of what the Great White Way has to offer. If the producers has stuck it out through the winter months (admittedly no easy task), I really believe the show could have built word of mouth that would steadily increase box office. Had it made it to awards season, I believe it could have even been in contention for some Best Musical awards due to a sheer lack of competition. Hell, given the way public opinion towards a show typically softens after a few months of running (see Memphis, Wicked, and a host of other shows that opened to mixed reviews which suddenly became awards contenders after six months), the show may have even stood a chance at winning. And given the palpable impact Best Musical has on a shows box office, it could have ended up running for a few years, a respectable amount of time and certainly long enough to make back its money.

I truly believe this show wasn't given a fair shot because of the extremely negative association people have with Frank Wildhorn. I admit I myself was skeptical (I generally despise Wildhorn's work), and found myself flabbergasted by how much I enjoyed the show. It is by no means perfect, but very few shows are. I would argue it is about as good a show as Memphis - competent if uninventive, with a likable and talented cast doing a good job of glossing over the show's bigger flaws. Especially in a season heavy with musical revivals and light on new fare, it would have been nice to see Bonnie & Clyde nurtured a little more.

One thing is for sure: after two savage critical and commercial lashings this year, Wildhorn will probably stay far, far away from Broadway.

Review: Bonnie & Clyde

“Shocking” is the only word that can describe Bonnie & Clyde, the latest Broadway musical from much maligned composer Frank Wildhorn.  The shock doesn’t come from any surprise plot twist or provocative material, but rather from the fact that the same man behind infamously terrible shows like Wonderland and Dracula has miraculously produced a rather entertaining and welcome addition to the Broadway season.

As you may have guessed, the show concerns the famous titular outlaws, and chronicles their passionate romance from first meeting to final embrace.  The opening number does an excellent job of introducing young hooligan Clyde Barrow (played by Jeremy Jordan) and small-town waitress Bonnie Parker (Laura Osnes), simultaneously establishing their desires for fame and fortune while laying the groundwork for the tragic romance that will ultimately be their undoing.  Despite knowing the outcome (the show opens with the lovers dead, and the entire evening is essentially an extended flashback), you’ll find yourself caught up in their devotion to one another, from the fateful first meeting through prison breaks, crime sprees, and a government-led manhunt.

The production is blessed with a pair of extremely charismatic leads in Jeremy Jordan and Laura Osnes.  Jordan’s dashing good looks and golden voice make for an eminently charming Clyde, which he tempers with flashes of frightening anger and determination.  It’s a dynamic performance, believably charting one man’s descent from small-time criminal into murderous outlaw.  Laura Osnes’ Bonnie is equally winning, a perfect combination of schoolgirl innocence and fiery passion as she struggles to free herself from the confines of small-town life.  With Osnes’ radiant good looks and beautiful voice, you’ll find yourself as captivated by her as the nation was by Bonnie.

The show contrasts the couple’s proclamations of unyielding love with the more subdued but still heartfelt relationship between Clyde’s brother Buck and his wife, Blanche.  As played by Claybourne Elder, Buck is an affably endearing man struggling to better himself while continually being pulled in by the glamorous allure of his brother’s exploits.  Although the siblings’ duet “When I Drive” is one of the score’s weaker moments, the love and devotion between the pair is excellently conveyed through Elder and Jordan’s performances. 

As Blanche, Melissa Van Der Schyff provides the lone voice of reason among the central quartet.  Blanche has never cared for Clyde and his shenanigans, and it clearly pains her to see her husband making the same mistakes.  But rather than being an overbearing shrew, Blanche expresses her displeasure through sharp comic barbs, providing the some of the evening’s biggest laughs.  Although the character of Blanche is overwritten (she easily has as much stage time as either of the leads), Van Der Schyff is such a charming actress that she never wears out her welcome.

Overall, the show manages to avoid many of the mistakes made by past Wildhorn endeavors.  Although Bonnie & Clyde’s score still contains some of the powerhouse belting and overly dramatic key changes that are the composer’s hallmark, it doesn’t rely on them nearly as much as his other shows.  The folk-and-blues-influenced music does a wonderful job of establishing the show’s world while bridging the gap between pop and musical theatre.  The drama isn’t overwrought, and is leavened with a surprising yet welcome amount of comedy.

Most of the show’s problems stem from Ivan Menchell’s book.  Disturbingly light on subtlety, the book scenes are saved on more than one occasion by the various performers’ charms.  Menchell doesn’t spend quite enough time developing the initial connection between the two leads; Bonnie displays enough hesitation that it isn’t love-at-first-sight, but we never see what causes her the change her mind about Clyde.  The pace starts to drag during the police manhunt in the second act, and the show’s ending is a decidedly underwhelming finish to this larger than life tale.

But the good outweighs the bad, and Bonnie & Clyde proves to be the most pleasant surprise of the fall season.  A more than competent combination of comedy and drama aided by two immensely appealing central performances, the show effectively graduates Jeremy Jordan and Laura Osnes from rising talents to full-fledged stars.  It also proves that Frank Wildhorn really did have a good musical rattling around inside of him; he just needed to write some bad ones first.

Will It Recoup?

Fair warning:  I'm about to get pretty "industry insider" on you guys right now.  Not so much in that I'm going to be using a bunch of pretentious terms you don't know, but because the topic I'm going to discuss doesn't really come up outside of industry newspapers and websites like Playbill.com.

That subject, boys and girls, is when a major Broadway musical manages to recoup its investment costs and therefore start turning a profit.  The reason this topic fascinates me is because it is not a straightforward result of popularity or the length of the run (although those things obviously come into play).  Some shows manage to recoup their investment within the space of a year, and others run for years without making back their initial costs.

For example, The Addams Family, that veritable punching bag of the 2009-2010 Broadway season, will be closing this Christmas.  By the time it's gone, the show will have run for nearly two years.  Furthermore, for the first six months of that run, it did nearly sell-out business and made over $1 million a week.  And yet, the show still won't have turned a profit by the time it closes, due to its high initial capitalization and what must amount to high weekly running costs (something tells me Nathan Lane and Bebe Nueworth did not come cheap).  Meanwhile, there are shows like the 2009 Hair revival that manage to make back their money in as little as 5 months.

I would argue that moreso than the initial cost, the thing that really makes or breaks a show financially is the weekly running cost.  It costs money to pay the actors, musicians, and stagehands, not to mention maintain the props, costumes, and sets while also paying rent on the theatre and the monthly power bill.  And since even the biggest theatres can only cram in about 10,000 people during a typical 8 show week, that means a very finite amount of earning potential for even sell-out shows (and this is assuming everyone pays full price for their tickets, which pretty much never happens).  If the weekly costs aren't kept in check, your show is going to have a tough time turning a profit even if it runs for years, since they amount to additional money being spent on top of the initial capitalization.  It's basically like trying to pay off a credit card while continuing to make charges on it; the more you "charge" in weekly running costs, the longer it will take to pay the balance down to zero.

So in the spirit of this fascinating (to me, anyway) subtopic of the theatrical business, I wanted to play a little guessing game about which of this season's musicals will actually turn a profit and prove financially successful.  I'm going to focus on the musicals because they:  a) cost more; b) are more likely to be commercial runs instead of not-for-profit productions that aren't actually concerned with making money.  So let's take a look at the first 5 musicals opening on Broadway this season, starting with Broadway's other favorite punching bag, Spider-Man.

(Note:  This may or may not be an attempt to salvage an article written for a certain nameless website who decided not to run it at the behest of their marketing department, after I had put in a lot of time and energy to write it.  Just sayin'.)

Spider-Man:  Turn Off the Dark

Yes, it’s been running for almost a year, but Spider-Man is technically part of the current Broadway season due to its mid-June opening.  This famously troubled musical is the most expensive in Broadway history, with a whopping $75 million in initial production costs (for comparison, Wicked cost “only” $14 million).  That hefty price tag, combined with the critical lashing the show received, led many to predict the show’s early demise.  But ticket sales have remained strong throughout the fall, and the show regularly grosses over $1 million a week.

Will It Recoup?  No.  Despite steady box office returns, there’s almost no chance of Spider-Man turning a profit.  In addition to its astronomically high initial capitalization, the technologically advanced show spends almost $1 million a week paying salaries, power bills, and maintaining sets and costumes.  Spider-Man would need to continue its current earning patterns for five to seven years before it begins making money, something that seems incredibly unlikely.  Only 15 musicals in history have run for that long, with recent megahits like The Producers and Hairspray only managing six year runs.

Follies

One of the many attractions of the critically lauded revival of Stephen Sondheim’s groundbreaking 1971 musical Follies is the fact that the show is a fully staged production.  The large-cast, costume-heavy musical is usually performed in scaled down concert versions due to its prohibitively expensive production costs (the original production was at the time the most expensive Broadway show in history, with an $800,000 capitalization).  In this era of bare bones revivals and smaller scale new musicals, the show’s 41-person cast and 27-piece orchestra seems particularly extravagant.

Will It Recoup?  Probably not.  The weekly running costs (including actor and musician salaries) are just too high.  Box office returns have been strong enough to prompt a three week extension of the show’s limited run, but Follies is also one of the few new productions currently open.  The glut of show openings in late October and November will surely steal some of Follies’ box office thunder, but if strong word of mouth continues to drive business there’s a possibility of a second extension which would increase its chances of recouping.

Godspell

This staple of high school and community theatre is prepping for its first Broadway revival, and its financial prospects are particularly up in the air.  The show does have a pre-established brand that’s familiar to the tourists who drive a large percentage of Broadway ticket sales, and being from the same composer as Wicked certainly won’t hurt.  In fact, the revival’s location next door to the Witches of Oz may make it an ideal alternative to those unable to score tickets to the perpetually sold-out hit.

Will It Recoup?  The chances are 50/50 on this one.  Popular regional shows do not necessarily set New York box offices on fire, and people may wonder why they should spend $135 to see something they could view for significantly less back home.  But with a 10-person cast and a small venue like the Circle in the Square Theatre helping to keep running costs down, the show shouldn’t need to sell-out every night to remain financially viable.  With some good reviews and positive word of mouth, it could easily run for a year or more, which is likely all it would need to turn a profit.

Hugh Jackman: Back on Broadway

Although not a musical in the traditional sense, this solo concert featuring one of Hollywood’s A-list stars qualifies as one for our purposes.  Headliner Hugh Jackman has been on Broadway exactly twice, and both times his presence has translated into box office gold.  In fact, Jackman was such a strong draw that both productions couldn’t continue without him, and The Boy from Oz even elected to temporarily shutter for a week during Jackman’s scheduled vacation rather than try to sell tickets without him.

Will It Recoup?  Yes.  Jackman’s Broadway concert already has a reported $6 million in advance ticket sales, cementing the Tony-winner’s status as a proven box office draw.  Even with Jackman’s star salary – which could easily be $100,000 a week or more – and an 18-piece orchestra to pay, running costs for a concert like this are comparatively low, making this one of the surest financial bets of the season.

Bonnie and Clyde

Frank Wildhorn must be a glutton for punishment.  Just six months after the critical and financial disaster that was Wonderland, Wildhorn is back with a new musical based on two of the most notorious outlaws in American history.  Helping this show’s financial viability is an intriguing subject matter that seems ripe for musicalization, and the large number of diehard fans of Wildhorn’s previous works.  Of course, the same could have been said about Wonderland, and that barely lasted a month.

Will It Recoup?  No.  There are just too many factors working against it.  Despite two well-reviewed out-of-town tryouts and two well liked up-and-comers in the lead roles (Laura Osnes and Jeremy Jordan, respectively), chances are Bonnie and Clyde will be ripped to shreds by New York critics, who have historically lambasted Wildhorn’s shows.  And even the composer’s biggest hit, Jekyll & Hyde, failed to turn a profit despite nearly four years on Broadway.  Given the current economic climate, Bonnie and Clyde can hardly count on a run that long, making the show’s financial prospects grim.

That's all for now.  I hope to make this a recurring article, so look for another installment as we get closer to more show opennings.  :-)