2012 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

Now we arrive at the two most competitive categories of the year:  Best Actress in a Play and Best Actress in a Musical.  With so many sterling performances by Broadway’s leading ladies this year, choosing just one seems criminal, but I will do my best.  Please keep in mind my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominees (at least in the play categories); and 2) Who will win is not necessarily the same as who should win, a difference I will explain in more detail throughout the body of the article.

Best Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur; Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow; Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities; Linda Lavin, The Lyons; Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Where do I even begin?  All five of these women gave critically lauded performances in well-reviewed productions, meaning the eventual winner will be determined as much by buzz as actual merit.  While all of the nominees are Tony-worthy, I think Cynthia Nixon has the least chance of winning.  Yes, critics adored Nixon’s turn as a college professor with terminal cancer, and the same role won actress Kathleen Chalfant every acting prize she was eligible for when Wit premiered Off-Broadway 14 years ago.  But with her show now closed, Nixon doesn’t have the chance to remind Tony voters how well she stacks up against the competition.

Linda Lavin and Nina Arianda have the advantage of being in currently running plays, but they somehow haven’t amassed the same level of buzz as their competition.  Lavin famously passed on the Broadway transfers of both Follies and Other Desert Cities in order to do The Lyons, and despite her tour de force performance the show hasn’t really caught on with critics or audiences.  Nina Arianda is two for two when it comes to Tony nods (she was also nominated for her Broadway debut last year), but Venus in Fur opened so long ago that I fear she’ll be forgotten despite Venus being in the running for Best Play.  She could be a dark horse candidate, but by definition dark horses are not the most likely winners.

The real contenders are Tracie Bennett and Stockard Channing, who are both giving the type of over the top diva performances Tony voters love.  Channing finds every shade imaginable in her domineering mother character from Other Desert Cities, and for much of the season was considered the front runner for this award.  But then Tracie Bennett arrived and became the talk of the town for her performance as a drug-addled, aging Judy Garland in End of the Rainbow.  Convincingly portraying a beloved icon with such ardent fans is no small feat, and since she utterly dominates Rainbow (as opposed to the more ensemble-oriented Other Desert Cities), I think the Best Actress trophy is Bennett’s to lose.  I’ll be rooting for Arianda, who has twice proven she is an extraordinary talent and a superstar in the making, but the smart money is on Bennett.

Will Win:  Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

Should Win:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Best Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Jan Maxwell, Follies; Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess; Cristin Milioti, Once; Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde

There is no doubt in my mind Kelli O’Hara, with her versatility and crystal-clear singing voice, will eventually win herself a Tony.  But it won’t be for Nice Work If You Can Get It, an underwhelming musical that is by no means her best work.  Similarly, if Laura Osnes continues to improve the way she has since getting her big break in the last Grease revival, she will someday find herself in possession of the coveted statuette.  But with Bonnie & Clyde unfairly trounced by critics and having shuttered ages ago, Osnes is also effectively out of the running.

The remaining three contenders have each done fantastic work this season, and a convincing argument could be made for any one of them to win Best Actress.  Ultimately, I think being a first-time nominee will keep the sensational Cristin Milioti from winning, with the Tony voters reasoning that she has plenty of time left to win the award.  That is not a knock against her amazing performance in Once; I would argue she is the best thing about that incredibly strong show.

But perennial Tony favorites Audra McDonald and Jan Maxwell have both exceeded all possible expectations this year.  Jan Maxwell was a revelation in Follies, stopping the show twice with her two big numbers.  She made the acerbic Phyllis endlessly compelling, slowly stripping away character’s icy veneer to reveal the damaged soul underneath.  It was a master class in musical theatre acting, and combined with the fact that this four-time nominee has never won, that makes her the one the beat in many people’s eyes.

Meanwhile Audra McDonald, the universally beloved singing actress, has one Tony for each of Maxwell’s nominations.  It would be perfectly logically for the Tony voters to spread the wealth, especially since we all knew McDonald would be excellent in Porgy and Bess, a role she was born to play.  But it is impossible to comprehend just how amazing her Bess is without seeing it, and I suspect even her biggest fans would find themselves surprised by what a masterful portrayal it is.  McDonald conveys more with her posture and body language than most actresses can in an entire song, and some of the most riveting moments in Porgy are the dialogue-free scenes where you watch Bess’ inner struggle to overcome her self-destructive tendencies.  And when McDonald does sing, she achieves such operatic heights of vocal technique and emotion that it is truly transcendent.

I’ve been agonizing over which actress is more deserving for months, and in many ways the race is still too close to call.  But call it I must, and my gut is favoring McDonald, despite her almost unprecedented four previous wins.  Unlike Maxwell, whose show closed in January, McDonald is still performing nightly and therefore reminding the Tony voters of her nearly unmatched talent.  Her Bess is one for the ages, and probably her best work to date, an especially high compliment when those four other Tony Awards are taken into consideration.  But if ever there was a tie for Best Actress, this would be the year.

Will Win:  Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess

Should Win:  Audra McDonald AND Jan Maxwell (they are both perfection)

Check back soon for my Best Actor predictions.  Until then, catch up on my previous Tony articles:

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress
Best Score and Book
Best Direction and Choreography

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 5

Broadway's Newsies prepared to karate kick the competition, thus ensuring it's place as King of New York

With only one week left before Tony nominations come out, we have to move right along with our assessment of this season’s shows.  First up:

Newsies

Disney claims that it never intended to bring Newsies to Broadway, and that they are just blown away by the support their show has received.  I think that’s bullshit, and is part of their clever plan to position the show as this season’s Tony underdog when it is actually the odds-on favorite. 

After all, the show has all the hallmarks of a Best Musical winner (a category it will assuredly be nominated in).  It’s an old-fashioned song and dance spectacle with just enough depth to keep adults engaged while omitting anything truly challenging or unpleasant, making it perfect family fare.  The Tony voters who are also producers of regional touring houses – a sizeable contingent of the total voting body – will want to capitalize on this appeal by awarding the show with as many statuettes as possible, allowing them to advertise the eventual tour as the “Tony-winning Broadway musical” and ensuring that it makes them a boatload of money.

If Once is this year’s Critics’ Darling, Newsies is the clear Commercial Success, which more often than not wins the big awards.  And while Newsies is in no way groundbreaking, it is constructed with enough competence to net Best Book and Best Score nominations among this year’s weak crop of new shows.  Christopher Gattelli’s athletic choreography, the production’s highlight, will surely be nominated and heavily featured during the show’s Tony telecast performance.  Another likely nominee is Tobin Ost’s for his multi-tiered set, inventively configured into an endless array of interconnected platforms and stairways over the course of the show.

The acting categories will be tougher for Newsies to crack, with one notable exception, whose name is Jeremy Jordan.  As newsboy Jack Kelly, Jordan is delivering a star-making turn that definitely land the gifted young performer a Best Actor nomination.  His onstage love interest, Kara Lindsay, would be wise to take a page from Nikki M. James’ book and submit herself in the supporting category, allowing her to avoid directly competing with Tony favorites like Audra McDonald and Kelli O’Hara.  If she does go the supporting route, her charming work should be enough to net this Broadway newcomer a Best Actress nomination, further strengthening the show’s real life Cinderella narrative.

The Best Man

This show’s Tony prospects are difficult to pin down.  Although many reviewers admitted the play’s subject matter remains topical, the consensus seems to be that we didn’t really need another revival of this work having just seen a production back in 2000.  In a crowded year for plays, that could be enough to knock the show out of the Best Revival race.

On the other hand, most critics jumped at the chance to see so many theatrical tyrants in one place, regardless of the quality of the material.  Any opportunity to see greats like Angela Lansbury and James Earl Jones practice their craft is cause for celebration, and the excitement of having them back onstage could lift the show into contention for the big prize.  Lansbury and Jones, both of whom have multiple Tonys to their name, will surely be nominated again in the Supporting categories.  And in such a busy season, two high profile nominations is nothing to be ashamed of.

End of the Rainbow

By all accounts, this play about the final months of Judy Garland’s life is nothing special, at least from a scripting standpoint.  Despite the Tonys’ love for all things British (this production comes straight from the West End), I think that disappointment is enough to keep End of the Rainbow out of the Best Play or Direction categories.  But from the time it was announced, this show has clearly existed only to highlight the extraordinary talents of star Tracie Bennett, who has generated the kind of raves most actors only dream about.  An assured Best Actress nominee, I think Bennett and her producers will be just fine with their single nomination.

Evita

Broadway was clearly ready for the return of Eva Peron.  Evita is currently doing stellar business at the Marquis Theatre, routinely landing among the top grossing Broadway shows alongside established mega-hits like Wicked and The Book of Mormon.  Critical reaction to the show proved mixed, although there were generally more positives than negatives, with Evita being deemed one of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s better works.  That should be enough, when combined with the show’s clear commercial potential, to earn it one of the coveted Best Musical Revival slots.

Leading lady Elena Roger is an awards conundrum.  Before the show opened, she seemed like a shoe-in for a Best Actress nomination; her performance was critically heralded in London, and Eva is certainly the kind of role that earns you awards consideration.  Unfortunately, Roger really isn’t up to the vocal demands of the role (more than one reviewer compared her singing unfavorably to Patti LuPone’s iconic belting), although she does have some lovely character moments.  I’m not ready to give Roger’s Best Actress nomination to someone else, although if her name isn’t among those called next Tuesday I won’t be terribly surprised.

Michael Grandage deserves a Best Director nomination for his expert staging of the piece, which unlike Roger did manage to avoid comparisons to the Broadway original.  And choreographer Rob Ashford has been nominated for much worse work than his work here, and a Best Choreography nod would be an excellent way to recognize its strengths.  Given the amount of money spent on this revival, the Sets, Lights, and Costumes are all viable contenders for nomination slots as well, as expensive physical productions always do well in those categories.  And finally, the always reliable Michael Cerveris will hopefully be rewarded with a Best Supporting Actor nomination for his excellent portrayal of Juan Peron, a role that would be utterly forgettable in a lesser actor’s hands.

Be sure to check back throughout the rest of this week for more Tony talk, and then again after May 1^st to hear my reaction to the big day.

For more a look at the other shows that opened this season and where they stand in the Tony rankings, check out these past articles.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4