2012 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

And then there were two.  The only categories left to discuss are the two biggest awards of any Tony season, Best Play and Best Musical.  Winning either of these awards has a major effect on a show’s future prospects, ensuring a high profile that makes the work one of the first scripts regional and amateur theatres assess when programming their upcoming seasons.  For musicals especially, winning this award provides a document box office boost, increasing the length of the show’s run and raising the chances of it actually turning a profit.

As always, I must point out a couple of caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated productions; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which is not the same as who should win.  History is riddled with examples of Tony’s top honor going to something other than the season’s best (find me one person who honestly believes The Music Man is a better overall show than West Side Story), and if that seems to be the case this year, I will say as much in the body of the article.

Best Play

Nominees:  Clybourne Park, Other Desert Cities, Peter and the Starcatcher, Venus in Fur

Since there is no separate playwriting category, the Best Play award functions as an acknowledgement of both the production as a whole and the script in particular, raising the desirability of a win in this category.  For the first time in years, every single nominee is a new American play, a refreshing change of pace from the recent domination of British shows winning this award.

While all of these plays are worthy, this is really a two-way race between Clybourne Park and Other Desert Cities.  Venus is Fur is a lean and thought-provoking work featuring two dazzling performances, but its early season opening has resulting in it losing a lot of buzz to more recent works.  And while many theatregoers are completely enamored with Peter and the Starcatcher, it will struggle to overcome its image as a kids’ play, something the high-minded Tony voters tend to scoff at no matter how well done.  Many would also argue that the direction has as much if not more to do with the Peter’s success than the actual script, a major problem since a Best Play win doubles as a writing honor.

Both Clybourne Park and Other Desert Cities have a lot of elements that Tony voters look for in potential Best Play winners.  Both are ensemble driven pieces that tackle serious issues with a healthy mix of humor and pathos, expertly acted and directed by some of the most talented people in the business.  And from a financial standpoint, Other Desert Cities is one of the most successful plays in years, having sustained strong box office and word of mouth despite being open for the better part of a year (name the last play that opened in October and was still running in early June).  In any other year, it would be the show to beat.

But there is something about Clybourne Park that compels people to vote for it.  While Cities had to settle for being “only” a Pulitzer Prize finalist, the racially charged Clybourne won the prestigious award in 2011.  The show does seem like a new type of play, whereas Cities is very much in the mold of the dozens of family dramas that have come before it.  Helped by a pitch perfect cast who has been with the show since its Off-Broadway premiere, Clybourne Park has the most momentum going into this evening, and I expect Tony voters to crown it this year’s Best Play.

Will Win:  Clybourne Park
Should Win:  Other Desert Cities

Best Musical

Nominees:  Leap of Faith, Newsies, Nice Work If You Can Get It, Once

I have no idea who the Leap of Faith producers paid off to get their critically panned show included among this year’s Best Musical nominees, especially considering the show’s dismal box office and premature closing indicate they didn’t have a lot of money to use for such bribery.  Granted, this has not been a great year for new musicals, especially compared to last year’s incredibly strong crop of new shows, but I have to believe there was a more deserving potential nominee.  But all the money in the world couldn’t secure Faith a win in this category, so I guess there isn’t too much harm done.

Nice Work If You Can Get It really should be better than it actually is, but as last year’s Women on the Verge proved, putting a bunch of past Tony winners in the same room does not automatically produce Tony-worthy work.  Nice Work is perfectly serviceable, but there is nothing exciting or overly interesting about this by the numbers show.  Most of the people involved seem to be there only for the paycheck rather than a love of the material, as evidenced by the lackadaisical performances of both Matthew Broderick and, I hate to say it, Kelli O’Hara.  Kathleen Marshall would have been better off spending the year collecting Anything Goes royalty checks, and I can only hope her next show marks a return to form for the very talented choreographer/director.

From the moment its Broadway transfer was announced, I knew Newsies would be a frontrunner for the Best Musical trophy.  It is easily the most commercial new musical of the season, and potential touring profits have been a deciding factor in this category more than once.  The show’s family friendly song and dance routine is definitely entertaining, and now that Disney has finally stopped playing coy and announced the show for an open-ended run, I expect Newsies to easily outlast the rest of this season’s new shows.  It is not high art, but it is well-done escapist entertainment, which wins the Tony more often than not.

However, I think Disney got the timing wrong on this one.  Had the show opened in April instead of in March, it would still be riding high on its post-opening buzz and sail into an easy Tony victory.  But the show has been running just long enough that we are starting to see some backlash against its lowly ambitions, and the flaws in its slickly-presented façade are more apparent in hindsight.  And the people who realize that Newsies isn’t quite as good as Disney would have you believe will surely vote for Once as the season’s best new show.

At first I was skeptical of Once, fearing this stage adaptation of an Oscar-winning indie film would quickly devolve into two-and-a-half hours of emotionally manipulative sentimentality accompanied by plaintive singer-songwriter style music.  But the show won me over with its expert execution and genuine heart, moving me in a way no other new musical has this season.  While small in scale, Once is large in ambition, and I’m happy to say is succeeds in achieving its lofty goals.  There is more invention and feeling in Once than in the other nominees combined, and the cherry on top of this musical sundae are two fantastic leading performances by breakout stars Steve Kazee and Cristin Milioti.

Once deserves the Best Musical trophy.  It is the best written show of the year, and the acting is the most truthful and heartfelt I’ve seen all season.  No one should be surprised if Newsies takes the prize tonight (I certainly won’t be), but I think Once has built up enough momentum that it might actually triumph over Disney’s pre-ordained classic.  Yes, this year has not been a great one for new musicals, but these two shows are definitely worthy of Broadway and beyond.

Will and Should Win:  Once

And that’s it for my 2012 Tony predictions!  Tune in to the Tony Awards telecast tonight at 8 to see how I did, and check back in the coming days for my reaction to Broadway’s biggest night.  If you’ve missed any of my previous prediction blogs, check them out below:

Best Revival

Best Actor (*Note:  I’ve amended my prediction for Best Actor in a Musical.  A lot of people seem to think Jeremy Jordan has this one in the bag, and since he was a close second for me I’ve upgraded him to “Will Win.”  Danny Burstein still “should win,” but I’m thinking this is Jordan’s year.)
Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

Tony Watch: Assessing the Fall Season Part 2

Stockard Channing, satisfied to know she's a likely Tony nominee for her work in Other Desert Cities

Moving right along, it’s time to continue picking apart the Tony chances for last fall’s crop of shows.  Next!

Relatively Speaking

I have to tell you, I rolled my eyes every time this show came up in the press.  Before it opened, there seemed to be a consensus among the media that this was an event, filled with A-list talent in front of and behind the curtain.  Well, I certainly wasn’t excited about any of the “stars” announced for this collection of one acts; I hadn’t even heard of most of them.  And while the three authors certainly have marquee value at the cinema, we all know that theatre and film are two very different mediums, and success in one by no means guarantees success in the other.

Three months later, and who was right?  I was.  Not only did the production receive tepid reviews, it failed to light the box office on fire.  Even if we assume that the so-called stars appealed to the older generation, who typically has more money to spend on Broadway tickets, the pitiful weekly grosses prove that this was a non-event no one was clamoring for.  It has thankfully closed, and we can all forget it ever happened, because that is surely what Tony voters will do.

Chinglish

Like Relatively Speaking, here was a show seemingly destined for commercial failure; unlike that other show, I actually feel bad for the now-closed Chinglish.  Given the current realities of Broadway box office, there is something admirable about the producers’ decision to premiere this play without any name stars.  And while playwright David Henry Hwang is certainly a respected member of the theatrical community, he has been largely absent from the New York scene for years, robbing this play of the kind of commercial appeal it might otherwise have had.  Reviews were admirable but not raves, which probably sealed the production’s fate.

Tony-wise, it is a long shot (but not impossible) Best Play nominee.  Its best chance at Tony recognition rests with leading lady Jennifer Lim, whose dual-language portrayal of a Chinese translator was by all account breathtaking and resoundingly praised by the press.  That kind of goodwill should help keep her in voters’ minds when they announce nominations this May.

Other Desert Cities

The heavyweight among this fall’s new plays, Other Desert Cities comes to Broadway after a critically lauded Off-Broadway run with much of its cast intact.  The returning actors received another round of raves, with newcomers Rachel Griffiths and Judith Light deemed worthy additions to this Great American Play in the making.  All of these factors have combined to create strong box office for the production, resulting in its limited run being extended well into the spring, keeping this critical darling front and center during the crucial spring Tony voting season.

I would be shocked if Other Desert Cities doesn’t wind up among the Best Play nominees.  And with such a uniformly excellent cast, acting nods are virtually assured, although who will get them is still open for debate.  The smart money would be on awards darling Stockard Channing, possibly joined by Ms. Griffiths in the Best Actress category.  Both men in the cast are well positioned to score Supporting Actor recognition, and I suspect Joe Mantello will receive his umpteenth Best Director nomination as well.

Venus in Fur

And the new plays just keep coming!  Venus in Fur is another winner, an Off-Broadway hit that was again embraced by critics for its Broadway debut.  I personally adored this production, and would love to see it among the Best Play nominees.  I’m not sure it will make the cut, though, given the stiff competition this year (I believe there are around 12 new plays competing for 4 nomination slots).

While the show’s fate is uncertain, Nina Arianda will surely be among this year’s Best Actress nominees, making her two for two in her fast growing Broadway career.  She is sensational as Wanda, and anyone who hasn’t seen this rising star work her magic needs to rush out and buy tickets to Venus’ upcoming commercial transfer.  Depending on how well or poorly the men in this spring’s plays do, her costar Hugh Dancy could also find himself walking the Tony red carpet as a Best Actor nominee in June.

Hugh Jackman: Back on Broadway

Honestly, the Tony committee should feel pretty stupid for doing away with the Special Theatrical Event category a few years back.  Had it been around, they would have the perfect excuse to nominate Broadway golden boy Hugh Jackman, thereby encouraging him to return to Broadway that much sooner and make some lucky producers very, very rich.  As it stands, they may still give him a special achievement Tony for his record-breaking one man show and Herculean fundraising efforts for Broadway Cares/Equity Fights AIDS.  If not, their next chance to shower Jackman with praise will be in 2013, when he stars in Stephen Schwartz’s Houdini musical to what will surely be lots of acclaim and insane box office figures.

Private Lives

Oh, Kim Cattrall.  You gave it a nice shot.  You even managed to earn pretty decent reviews for your performance in this oft-revived Noel Coward comedy, which appears on Broadway every 10 years or so with big name stars making delicious fools of themselves.  But the show was simply too familiar, and I’m not sure the gays have completely forgiven you for making them wait so long for that first Sex in the City movie (we all know she was the sole holdout among the main cast when the movie deals were being drawn up).  But while I don’t foresee any Tony glory in your immediate future, you can go on with your head held high, and maybe return in a vehicle better suited to your persona.

Seminar

In case you haven’t clued in, the fall is clearly the time to launch new plays.  And this one, by Pulitzer Prize finalist Theresa Rebeck, is another work that scored solid but not spectacular reviews.  Since Tony voters tend to favor serious dramas when picking Best Play nominees, I don’t think the comedic Seminar stands a very good shot in that category.  But Alan Rickman, who has been Tony nominated both times he has graced Broadway with his presence, will likely complete the hat trick and be three for three in the Best Actor category.

How was the Show? (Part 2)

Continuing a blog post from earlier this week (and my attempt to get at least mini-reviews of every Broadway show I've seen up on this blog), here are my completely biased and at times unsubstantiated opinions on some more currently running Broadway shows.

Godspell - I haven't gotten around to seeing this one yet, but it did not get the best reviews.  Most disappointing for me is the general consensus that the show is an almost juvenile, hyperactive take on the material, which just sounds so grating and obnoxious that it may keep me away from this revival alltogether.  I will say that my general opinion of Stephen Schwatz's work is that no matter what your opinion of the music, his shows tend to have problematic books that require a cast and director capable of disguising the flaws.  It sounds like this Godspell didn't have a cast quite up to the task.

How to Succeed - I really enjoyed this show, and I saw it during the second or third preview.  I can only imagine how much it's improved since then, and if you're looking for a good old-fashioned musical comedy, this is the show for you.  Daniel Radcliffe makes a surprisingly adept musical debut, and he is ably supported by the rest of the cast and what I would argue is one of the stronger Golden Age musical books and scores.  The look of the show is 60s-tastic in the best possible sense, and unlike the garbage Rob Ashford created for Promises, Promises, his choreography here is quite inspired.  The show is a tad long and I personally didn't care for the actor playing Bud Frump, but I would argue this production is every bit as good as last season's other musical revival, Anything Goes.

Jersey Boys - In one of the umpteen million iterations of Forbidden Broadway, there is a spoof of Jersey Boys in which the characters claim they have replaced scenes with dramatic monologues so that they have more time to sing classic songs with snappy choreography.  Which *perfectly* describes Jersey Boys, and is why I find it to be one of the most overrated shows of the past decade.  They tell you what is going on rather than showing you, which is both dramatically unfulfilling and vaguely insulting.  Plus, do you really want to fight your way through the crowds of New Jersey housewives just to find your seat?

Mamma Mia! - I can't speak to this show's quality, as I've never seen it and never will unless I happen across some free tickets.  At this point my objection is more philosophical than anything else, as Mamma Mia! started the entire jukebox musical craze which was an utter detriment to the musical theatre community.  After Mamma Mia!'s success, producers took jobs away from aspiring theatre composers by using pop hits with pre-established name recognition for their musicals.  Not only did this put good artists out of work, but it also led to the creation of a series of dramtically inert shows struggling to build a story around pop tunes that lacked dramatic intent and forward momentum, two requirements of any good theatre song.  Which I find unforgivable, and will in no way support.

Mary Poppins - Another tourist-centric show I haven't seen.  My friends who have been actually have nice things to say about it, so if you're looking for something to take your out-of-town relatives to, this could well be it.

Memphis - No, this show isn't a great piece of musical theatre writing.  But it is a thoroughly entertaining evening in the theatre that has a little bit of everything.  There's comedy, drama, lots of singing and dancing, and just enough of emotional depth that you don't feel like you're watching a piece of fluff.  I personally wish the show had focused more on how being in an interacial relationship negatively affected the white male, as that is something that hasn't been explored nearly as often as the well-worn oppressed-black-woman-in-the-South angle the show's second act favors.  But the cast is talented and the singing and dancing is generally stellar.  Definitely worth a look.

Other Desert Cities - I really want to see this show, and its actually at the top of my list of shows to go see in the next few weeks, so look for a full report soon!

Well, that's enough for today.  Check back soon for more mini-reviews, and feel free to challenge my opinions in the comments (but be warned, I bite).

-Jared W