2018 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

Our 2018 Tony Award predictions continue, this time focusing on the Best Featured Actress nominees. Read on for my thoughts on who will win, who deserves to win, and at least one criminally overlooked actress!

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Noma Dumezweni (left) with Jamie Parker and Paul Thornley in Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.

Nominees: Susan Brown, Angels in America; Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Deborah Findlay, The Children; Denise Gough, Angels in America; Laurie Metcalf, Three Tall Women

It is both interesting and somewhat distressing to note that with the exception of Metcalf, all of the actresses in this category hail from the UK, as do the productions for which they're nominated. While I'm not as concerned about the state of the Broadway play as some, it is disheartening to see the lack of home grown talent when it comes to plays on the Great White Way. Hopefully next season will see producers taking more chances on American-born plays and productions.

As for likely winners, Deborah Findlay is the longest shot here, having appeared in a long-shuttered play which got little Tony love (although The Children did manage to score a coveted Best Play nomination). Meanwhile, when it comes to the dual nominees from Angels in America, both roles offer such a wealth of acting opportunities I'm not sure how anyone can choose between them. Susan Brown tackles multiple roles, primarily that of an overbearing Mormon mother struggling to accept her closeted son, while Denise Gough plays her pill popping daughter-in-law. While I usually think the effect of vote splitting on Tony winners is marginal, the lack of a clear favorite leaves room for a neck and neck race to be overtaken by a third contender with just a few more votes.

Between her Tony win last year for A Doll's House Part 2, her Oscar nominated supporting turn in Lady Bird, and her return to her signature sitcom role of Aunt Jackie on the revival of Roseanne, it seems the entire world has remembered just how much they love the supremely talented Laurie Metcalf. She could well pull off a rare back to back Tony win with her supporting turn in Three Tall Women, a production the entire theatre community seems to adore. But I think Harry Potter and the Cursed Child's Noma Dumezweni will *just* edge out Metcalf and go home with a Tony to accompany the Olivier Award she won for the same role. Not only would a win for Dumezweni acknowledge her lauded performance as Hermione Granger, it would also be a strong statement in support of onstage representation and color conscious casting. (Despite JK Rowling's approval and the fact that Hermione's race is never explicitly referenced in the novels, some criticized the casting of a black actress as a character many had assumed was white, a notion reinforced by Emma Watson's portrayal of the character through 8 films.)

Will Win: Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
Should Win: Abstain

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Lindsay Mendez as Carrie Pipperidge in Carousel.

Nominees: Ariana DeBose, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical; Renee Fleming, Carousel; Lindsay Mendez, Carousel; Ashley Park, Mean Girls; Diana Rigg, My Fair Lady

Not to take anything away from the nominated performers, but it's safe to say this category did not turned out quite as expected. Dame Diana Rigg is a treasure and Broadway is lucky to have her, but her inclusion for the relatively minor, non-singing role of Mrs. Higgins in Lincoln Center's My Fair Lady has raised more than a few eyebrows. I also question the inclusion of Mean Girls' Ashley Park at the exclusion of her hilarious, scene stealing costar Kate Rockwell, whose dimwitted Karen is the most consistently hysterical performance on Broadway right now. (Fans of reckless belting are also bummed at the exclusion of Barrett Wilbert Weed's Janice from the same show, but in that case I can see why she didn't quite make the cut.)

In fact, while all supremely talented, all of the nominated women also have some big hurdles to clear. Ariana DeBose's star has been steadily rising the past few seasons as an original cast member of first Hamilton and then A Bronx Tale, but the only musical this season critics seemed to hate more than Summer is the unnominated Escape to Margaritaville. Rigg will have to overcome the prejudice against being nominated in a musical acting category despite not singing a note, which while technically allowed does seem to be against the spirit of the award. Both Renee Fleming and Lindsay Mendez are doing admirable work in a divisive revival of Carousel; some folks loved it, others - like me - found it to be an admirable but ultimately flawed production of a problematic show. And Park's more nuanced turn in a musical primarily known for over the top musical comedy could either be an asset or a hindrance depending on how many voters expect all actors in comedies to be laugh out loud funny.

Despite having to compete with the memory of Audra McDonald in her breakthrough role, Mendez seems like the most likely victor. She is a well-liked member of the community who has admirably adapted her very contemporary quirkiness and vocal pyrotechnics to the traditional leanings of the Rodgers and Hammerstein revival, and aside from leading man Joshua Henry she is the most consistently strong part of the show. (Fleming's masterful rendition of "You'll Never Walk Alone" is worth the price of admission alone, but her serviceable dialogue scenes don't feel quite strong enough to justify a win.) Park is the next most likely winner, and I can even see Tony voters opting for a surprise win for DeBose, but as of now this is Mendez's race to lose.

Will Win: Lindsay Mendez, Carousel
Should Win/Should Have Been Nominated: Kate Rockwell, Mean Girls


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Book and Score
Direction and Choreography
Featured Actor

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

As the 2015 Tony Awards creep ever closer, my annual predictions have now entered the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production awards seem to be the most coveted of all Tonys, particularly from an advertising perspective. They also tend to provoke the most speculation and lead to the closest races of any given season, and this year's crop of nominees is no different. While doing my best to predict who will actually win, I will also be sure to point out if I think there is a more deserving performer in danger of being overlooked. Of course, anything can happen on Tony Sunday (the Featured categories are a hotbed for surprise nominees and winners), but as of right now, here are my best guesses as to who will go home victorious on June 7th.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Lydia Leonard (right) with fellow Tony nominee Ben Miles in the Royal Shakespeare Company's Wolf Hall.

Nominees: Annaleigh Ashford, You Can't Take It With You; Patricia Clarkson, The Elephant Man; Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Sarah Stiles, Hand to God; Julie White, Airline Highway

Just like their male counterparts, this season's Featured Actress in a Play nominees find themselves in a wide open race. As with her costar K. Todd Freeman, I think Julie White will be severely handicapped by the fact that Airline Highway has almost no awards momentum (it failed to make the cut for Best Play); also, as a previous Tony winner White may be held back by voters who prefer to spread the love. Meanwhile, while Sarah Stiles has one knockout scene in Hand to God along with several supporting bits, I expect her to be overlooked in favor of an actress whose role is a little more fleshed out.

Annaleigh Ashford was hysterical in last fall's You Can't Take It With You, and the widely publicized story of how she performed on pointe despite breaking her toe during rehearsals will certainly earn her some brownie points. But Ashford's show opened and closed a long time ago, a major handicap I don't think her well-liked performance can quite overcome. She is still a dark horse candidate, but I think her chances would be greater if the show had lasted until March or April rather than early February.

Patricia Clarkson and Lydia Leonard are in the best position here, as although they are competing in the "Featured" category both are in practice the female leads of their respective shows (a situation that helped The Book of Mormon's Nikki M. James win her Tony Award back in 2011). Clarkson's show has been closed since mid-February, but thanks to the buzz surrounding Bradley Cooper's performance as the titular Elephant Man I expect most voters saw and remembered her performance. But Lydia Leonard is a Shakespearean actress in a critically acclaimed, two part period drama which provides her nearly twice the material as any of her competitors, which is a pretty hard combination to beat. I expect this is ultimately her race to lose.

Will and Should Win: Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts I & II


 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Judy Kuhn (left) and fellow Featured Actress Tony nominee Sydney Lucas in the Broadway transfer of Fun Home.

Nominees: Victoria Clark, Gigi; Judy Kuhn, Fun Home; Sydney Lucas, Fun Home; Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I; Emily Skeggs, Fun Home

It's lovely Victoria Clark has received her fourth career Tony nomination this year (even if I personally would rather have seen On the Town's Alysha Umphress in this spot). That said, I don't think she has a snowball's chance in hell of actually winning, with the main question in this race being whether or not the three Fun Home actresses cancel one another out and allow Ruthie Ann Miles to complete the ultimate Cinderella story and win a Tony Award for her Broadway debut.

Pitting the Fun Home actresses against one another forces voters to pick a favorite, something that is incredibly difficult and will likely split votes. Judy Kuhn, Emily Skeggs, and young Sydney Lucas all do fantastic work in the chamber musical, each providing some excellent scene work capped off by the score's three best songs (Kuhn's "Days and Days," Skeggs' "Changing My Major," and Lucas' "Ring of Keys"). The incredibly talented Lucas has one of the largest and most important roles in the show, as her scenes with Michael Cerveris form the dramatic crux of the evening and the key to understanding both characters. But Kuhn is practically a theatrical institution, with three previous nominations but no wins to her name, and although her character doesn't say much the actress makes every syllable count. Furthermore, her interpretation of the aforementioned "Days and Days" is some of the most accomplished musical acting currently on Broadway.

In fact, Kuhn is probably the biggest threat to Miles, and I can honestly see the race going either way. Unfortunately the other theatrical awards don't provide much insight into how voters may be leaning, as Kuhn's award-winning work in Fun Home's Off-Broadway production last season made her ineligible this year, clearing the way for Miles to win an Outer Critics Circle Award earlier this month. I personally would favor Miles, as her "Something Wonderful" is every bit as marvelous as Kuhn's big number, with the added bonus that Miles has comparatively more to do and imbues every move her character makes with a multitude of meanings. But if the industry's already established love of Kuhn leads to them honoring the Broadway veteran with her first Tony Award, I couldn't reasonably complain.

Will Win: Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Should Win: Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I


And that wraps up my predictions for the Featured performances, which are the categories that usually bring down my batting average on Tony night. Check back on Friday as I begin to tackle the Lead Actor and Actress categories. You can also catch up on all my previous Tony coverage below, and be sure to check back every Monday and Friday from now until the telecast for more updates!

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part IV (Featured Actor/Actress)

I've already gone into great detail about the productions and leading actors/actresses I expect to wake up to good news on Tuesday morning.  (Sidenote: why on earth are Tony nominations announced so early when the people they're honoring typically don't go into work until 6 pm or later?)  Now I'm going to attempt the most difficult predictions of all:  the Featured Actor and Actress nominees.

Why are these categories so hard to predict?  Because whereas the production and lead actor categories have a relatively limited pool of eligible nominees, almost everyone who sets foot on a Broadway stage is could conceivably be nominated in the Featured categories, which makes narrowing things down much more difficult.  Historically, this is also the area with the biggest number of "surprise" nominations for people who weren't on anyone's radar.  (Did you know who Elizabeth A. Davis was before the 2012 Tony nominations?  Do you know who she is now???)  But using my time honored combination of first hand experience, industry buzz, and gut feeling, I'm making predictions anyway, including at least one Wildcard per category that could potentially unseat one of my official guesses.

Best Featured Actress (Play)

Oscar-nominee Sophie Okonedo will probably be able to add "Tony nominee" to her resume after tomorrow's nominations are announced.

The sure-bet here is Celia Keenan-Bolger for her Laura in last fall's acclaimed The Glass Menagerie.  She will certainly be joined by at least one of the ladies from A Raisin in the Sun, although at this point deciding between Sophie Okonedo and Anika Noni Rose feels arbitrary.  Okonedo got slightly more rapturous reviews, although she is also playing the same role that won Audra McDonald the Tony only ten years ago, which is a mighty powerful memory to overcome.  Rose is a previous Tony winner and is playing the one female role which wasn't honored with an award the last time around, so recognizing her would allow Tony voters to feel less like they're repeating themselves.  There's also the very real possibility the committee will double down and nominate both women, which is what my gut is telling me at this moment.

After that, things get harder to predict.  Andrea Martin just won the Tony last year, but that hasn't mattered much to voters recently (see Judith Light's back-to-back wins), and the committee tends to be impressed by actors tackling multiple roles like Martin does in Act One.  Although I have not personally seen or even heard much buzz about Casa Valentina, Mare Winningham recently scored herself an Outer Critics Circle nomination for her work in that Harvey Fierstein play, which makes her a contender here as well.  And there is the dim but still possible chance that Jayne Houdyshell is remembered for her role as the Nurse in the ill-fated Romeo & Juliet revival from last fall; she did manage to beat out all of her Follies costars a couple of years ago, although that show was much better liked than Romeo.

Nominees:
Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
Andrea Martin, Act One
Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina

Wildcard:
Jayn Houdyshell, Romeo & Juliet

Beat Featured Actor (Play)

Honestly, any of the men from last fall's Twelfth Night are worthy of a Tony nominations, although it is Mark Rylance (left) and Paul Chahidi (second from left) who have the greatest chance of actually being recognized.

Have they gone ahead and engraved this award with Mark Rylance's name yet?  They might as well, because his buzzed about Olivia in Twelfth Night was such a master class in acting I cannot imagine anyone else wresting this category away from him.  His nomination is a sure thing, and I actually have a very good feeling about his co-star Paul Chahidi being recognized as well for his outstanding Maria.  Chahidi took a role that typically feels more like a narrative device and turned it into a fully fledged, entirely winsome character, and I believe he will be rewarded for it.  My gut is also telling me that Brian J. Smith will complete The Glass Menagerie's hat trick of garnering nominations for the entire cast in all four acting categories.

I'm at a loss as to who else will be competing in this category; there is no shortage of eligible nominees thanks to the abundance of male-dominated plays this season.  Billy Crudup inexplicably scored a Tony nomination for the 2011 revival of Tom Stoppard's Arcadia despite being atrocious in the role; could a similar outcome greet his performance in Waiting for Godot?  Bobby Steggert is giving one of his most naturalistic performances yet in Mothers and Sons and isn't entirely out of the running, although that show is primarily viewed as a Tyne Daly vehicle.  Going back to the Shakespeare plays, Stephen Fry was roundly praised for his Malvolio in Twelfth Night, although having three nominees from the same show seems like a bit much.  All the Way's John McMartin landed among the Outer Critics' list of Best Featured Actors, and Casa Valentina's Reed Birney managed a similar feat with the Drama Desk awards, so both of those actors should be considered in the running as well.

Nominees:
Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
Bobby Steggert, Mothers and Sons

Wildcard:
Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night

Best Featured Actress (Musical)

I had a snappy caption for this photo of Marin Mazzie as Helen Sinclair, but the Bullets Over Broadway star very specifically instructed me not to speak.

Being ruled a featured actress instead of a lead is the best thing that could have happened to Marin Mazzie this year, as moving her into this less competitive category virtually guarantees a nomination for her boozy diva in Bullets Over Broadway.  And it would take quite an unexpected turn of events to keep Linda Emond out of the running for her Fraulein Schneider in Cabaret (who really deserved to win for her stellar performance in Death of a Salesman, so the committee kind of owes her).  There's also a guaranteed nomination in the cards for one of A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's ladies, even though in my ideal world both Lisa O'Hare and Lauren Worsham would be recognized for their outstanding work.  If only one can make the cut, my money is on O'Hare, whose upwardly mobile Sibella Hallward is the more interesting of the two characters since she subverts the typical ingénue troupes. 

Conventional wisdom holds that at least one more female from Bullets Over Broadway will get nominated, although whether it ends up being rising star Betsy Wolfe or Helene York's ditzy blonde is a toss up.  York is more of an unknown, and considering how much Tony voters love a good Cinderella story, York may benefit from their desire to try and crown a new star.  I also think Adriane Lenox has a strong chance at a nomination for her work in After Midnight, a prospect helped by the fact that she is the highest profile stable element of the show (she's been with the production since the beginning, while the Guest Star slot gets a new performer every month or two).  And finally, Anika Larson has scored both a Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nomination for her work in Beautiful, which makes her a major contender for Tony recognition as well.

Nominees:
Linda Edmond, Cabaret
Anika Larson, Beautiful
Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
Lisa O'Hare, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Wildcards:
Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
Helene York, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Featured Actor (Musical)

"Friend Like Me" is the showstopper of the season, and James Monroe Iglehart is a large reason why it works as well as it does.  If that doesn't merit a Tony nomination, I don't know what does.

Like Best Featured Actor in a Play, there is a clear frontrunner for this award right now, and his name is James Monroe Inglehart.  His wisecracking Genie has made him the breakout star of Aladdin, with even the show's detractors admitting that Inglehart is the real deal.  His nomination is assured, and the only real question is who will be joining him.  Danny Burnstein seems like a sure thing for his performance as Herr Schultz in Cabaret; the fact that this Broadway stalwart has not been rewarded with the industry's highest honor is a fact that needs to change sooner rather than later (I will forever maintain that he was ROBBED of the 2012 Best Actor Tony for his revelatory performance in Follies).  And Nick Cordero has been nominated for every acting award so far this season, so I'd consider the Bullets Over Broadway player another lock for a nomination.

As for the remaining two slots, it's really anyone's guess, as there has been no consistency among the nominees in the other awards-given bodies (which tend to lump Broadway and Off-Broadway performances together, meaning less Broadway talent makes the cut).  Could Jarrod Spector benefit from the theatrical community's increasingly warm feelings towards Beautiful?  Will Tony nominators remember Bobby Steggert's performance in Big Fish?  Will the good looking, big voiced Joshua Henry manage to get his second career Tony nod for his supporting work in Violet?  At this point a well-liked performer like If/Then's Anthony Rapp has a decent shot at nabbing a nomination despite being overshadowed by several of his costars in a show that the critics didn't much care for.  There is even the off chance that one of the men from Les Miserables makes the cut, although considering most of those performers are more singers than actors that could raise a few eyebrows.

Nominees:
Danny Burnstein, Cabaret
Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
Joshua Henry, Violet
James Monroe Inglehart, Aladdin
Jarrod Spector, Beautiful

Wildcard:
Bobby Steggert, Big Fish


Well, that caps off my 2014 Tony Awards predictions!  We'll find out how right (or wrong) I was when the official nominations are announced tomorrow morning, so check back in the next couple of days to see how I did.  Until then, you can read the rest of my Tony Awards coverage here:

2014 Tony Predictions Part I (Production)
2014 Tony Predictions Part II (Best Actress)
2014 Tony Predictions Part III (Best Actor)

Insanely Early 2014 Tony Predictions: Part III

I cannot speak for the rest of the country, but New York remains in the midst of a seemingly unending winter (and that damn groundhog thinks we have six more weeks of it left).  Broadway is deep in its winter doldrums too, with most of the splashy spring shows still in rehearsals before previews begin.  Which means that now is the perfect time to start handicapping this fall's productions for the upcoming Tony Awards!  You may think it's early, and it is, but what else are we going to talk about?  I've already given my thoughts on the productions and lead performances I consider well-positioned to score an eventual Tony nod, so now it's time to turn my same skills of unsubstantiated guesswork toward the featured performances.

For those who didn't read my last two posts, the rules for getting mentioned here are simple: the actor/actress must have made a major impression on the New York theatrical community.  As we have a whole slew of shows set to open during the spring, the only way any fall performance will be able to break into the crowded Featured Actor/Actress categories is via a universally praised turned.  As such, there are very few sure things in these categories, but that's not going to stop me from trying to pick the most likely nominees.

WARNING:  Occasional snark and wild speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Of all Jefferson Mays' deliriously daffy characters in Gentleman's Guide, the racially insensitive Lady Hyacinth is easily my favorite.

A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's Jefferson Mays is guaranteed one of the five slots in this category for his bravura turn as all eight members of the doomed D'Ysquith clan.  I'm a little surprised he wasn't upgraded to Lead Actor status, although I agree this category is where his roles, however showy, belong.  More confounding is the Tony committee's decision to consider his extremely talented costar Bryce Pinkham eligible in the same category despite the fact that Pinkham's upwardly mobile Monty Navarro forms the lynchpin of the entire evening.  I'm really hoping that Pinkham, who I found to be a sensational straight man and one of the purest tenors currently singing on Broadway, also scores a nomination for his work, but if the spring musicals are particularly strong he could find himself shut out by the flashier Mays.  And depending on how many fans Big Fish has on the Tony nominating committee, Bobby Steggert may find himself among the nominees as well.  Even that show's biggest detractors generally considered it to be well-acted, although I personally found Steggert to be the least memorable of the show's main trio.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Game, set, and match, gentleman.  Mark Rylance's Olivia in Twelfth Night is quite possibly the performance of the season, and it's only February.

They might as well just go ahead and engrave this Tony with Mark Rylance's name, because he is going to win it.  Rylance's Olivia in the all-male Twelfth Night is the buzziest performance of the season thus far, and rightfully so.  He took the role in unexpectedly hilarious directions, downplaying the character's normal refinement and making her an overgrown child prone to hysterical tantrums.  Not only was this a new interpretation, but one that was fully supported by the text and went a long way towards making this the funniest production of Twelfth Night I have ever seen.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see any of Rylance's costars nominated in this category (I was particularly impressed by Paul Chahidi's Maria), but Rylance is the man to beat.  Among the fall's other offerings, I think The Glass Menagerie's Brian J. Smith stands as good a shot as any Gentleman Caller ever has of being recognized, and I think that much ballyhooed production is well positioned to perform the hat trick of getting a nomination in each of the four acting categories (although Smith is probably most in danger of being shut out).

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

"Long suffering wife" is a sure road to awards contention, and Kate Baldwin played it with unusual depth and sincerity.  (Bonus: her slow-motion dance during "Time Stops" was one of the most beautifully simply staging moments of the season.)

I'm rooting for Big Fish's Kate Baldwin to get some recognition for her sterling work in that production, her first Broadway outing since her star-making turn in Finian's Rainbow four years ago.  I think the fact that she was deemed a Featured Actress rather than a Lead actual works in her favor, as it keeps her out of the hotly contested Best Actress race.  I also think there is a good chance one of the lovely ladies from Gentleman's Guide joins her on the red carpet, although whether that is Lisa O'Hare or Lauren Worsham remains a toss-up at this point.  In fact, I would *love* it if both women wound up nominated, as that show and particularly it's second act wouldn't be nearly as good without them.  If I had to pick one, I would go with O'Hare, as her Sibella is a little more complex and fun that Worsham's doe-eyed and superbly sung Phoebe.  But Worsham is one of the most winsome and interesting ingénues of the past several seasons, which only reinforces my wish for both of them to score nominations.

Best Featured Actress in a Play



Celia Keenan-Bolger rose to fame in a couple of high profile musical roles, but it's her critically acclaimed turn as Laura in The Glass Menagerie that may finally bring this talented actress Tony gold.

As I've stated before, I expect this latest revival for The Glass Menagerie to do very well come Tony time despite my personal dislike of it.  I think Celia Keenan-Bolger is a sure thing for a nomination, and depending on how the spring season goes the twice-nominated actress may actually win her first award.  In fact, as of right now, she's the only actress I think is in serious contention for this award, as the fall plays were particularly male-heavy, what with the two all-male Shakespeares and the Pinter/Beckett rep plays starring four male actors each.


And that concludes my semi-annual Tony rant.  There are a lot of shows opening in the next few months, and I hope to see a good number of them so that I can provide you all with reviews.  Look for more Tony talk from me closer to the announcement of the nominees on April 29th, after which point I will likely be unable to talk about anything else until the awards are handed out on June 8th.

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

As the clock steadily ticks down to Tony Sunday, it’s time to begin predicting the winners of what I’ve dubbed the Big 12 Tony races (which includes the eight acting awards, best revivals, and best new productions).  I’ll be starting my analysis with the featured categories before working my way up towards the more prestigious awards, and if there are any major discrepancies between who I think is the most likely to win and who is the most deserving, I’ll be sure to point them out. 

Since any gentleman knows it’s ladies first, I’ll be starting with the Best Featured Actress categories, which I actually find to be some of the hardest categories to predict.  These races are where wildcard nominees are most likely to appear, with voters alternating between rewarding exciting new talent and re-honoring theatrical veterans.  Guessing which way the winds will blow in a given year can be as much luck as anything else, but I will bravely soldier on and do my best to make sense of it.  So without further ado, here are my picks for this year’s best supporting players.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Condola Rashad (right) is two for two when it comes to Tony nominations; she's been nominated for each of her Broadway roles.  Can she win this year?

 

Nominees:  Carrie Coon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; Shalita Grant, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Judith Ivey, The Heiress; Judith Light, The Assembled Parties; Condola Rashad, The Trip to Bountiful

 

In some ways this race is anyone’s game, but I think the least likely winner among the five nominees is Judith Ivey.  All but forgotten by the New York press, The Heiress hasn’t been very competitive when it comes to nominations or wins this awards season, and with two career wins to Ivey’s name I think the voters will choose to spread the love.  Carrie Coon was absolutely brilliant in Virginia Woolf, but her role is the smallest in the four character play, and with her flashier costars curiously overlooked by other awards bodies I can’t imagine she stands much of a chance.  Shalita Grant could be a dark horse candidate, as Vanya and Sonia has proven to be a surprisingly strong contender this season and the show’s most honored star, Kristine Nielsen, is competing in another category.

But ultimately, I think the most likely winners are the two women who found themselves in this same spot last year.  After a three decade absence from the New York stage, Judith Light returned in 2010 and has been Tony nominated three seasons running.  It is impossible to overstate the amount of love the community has for last year’s winner, and it is not outrageous to imagine Light becoming a consecutive Tony winner.  Aside from having just won this award, Light’s biggest stumbling block is that fact that Tony voters don’t appear as enamored with The Assembled Parties as the critics were.  The Trip to Bountiful’s Condola Rashad has obviously inherited her mother Phylicia’s talent, and voters who balk at honoring Light two years in a row will almost certainly vote for the young starlet.  In fact, I’m going to make the bold prediction that Rashad will win this year, although only a fool would count Light out completely.

 

Will & Should Win:  Condola Rashad, The Trip to Bountiful

 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Andrea Martin in the outstanding revival of Pippin.  It's been 20 years since she won her first Tony; will this year bring her Tony #2?

 

Nominees:  Annaleigh Ashford, Kinky Boots; Victoria Clark, Cinderella; Andrea Martin, Pippin; Keala Settle, Hand on a Hardbody; Lauren Ward, Matilda the Musical

This category is a nice mixture of industry heavyweights and Tony newcomers, with every nominated performance I’ve seen culminating in a genuine showstopper.  Despite her rafter shaking vocals and unexpected dramatic heft, Keala Settle is the underdog here as Hands on a Hardbody is the only nominated show not currently running.  And for all of the good things said about Matilda, the production itself has been more praised than the individual performances, which hurts Lauren Ward’s chances considerably.

I would honestly be happy to see any of the three remaining women take home the trophy.  Victoria Clark has been handed some questionable material in the rewrite of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s Cinderella, but her second act ballad “There’s Music in You” is one of the most gloriously sung and acted pieces of music currently on Broadway.  I think the general disdain for Cinderella will hold Clark back, but there’s no denying the power of her performance.  Annaleigh Ashford is finally enjoying her moment in the sun after years of hilarious supporting turns in under seen or underappreciated musicals, and her solo “The History of Wrong Guys” is a simultaneous send-up and love letter to 80s rock anthems.  In a lesser actress’ hands the part would likely fall flat, and a Tony win would provide the perfect feather in Ashford’s professional cap.  But Andrea Martin’s work in Pippin is nothing short of magical, and in its utter simplicity her “No Time at All” manages to trump the topnotch revival’s overwhelming amount of visual spectacle.  Only a complete killjoy would begrudge Martin her likely Tony win, and it couldn’t happen to a nicer broad. 

Should Win:  Annaleigh Ashford, Kinky Boots

Will Win:  Andrea Martin, Pippin

 

Check back soon for my predictions in the Best Featured Actor categories, and until then you can catch up on the rest of my Tony ramblings for this season.

 

Best Book and Score

Best Choreography and Direction
2013 Tony Nominations React

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

Now we get to the meat of the Tonys, the acting awards.  Given the sheer volume of eligible work, someone always gets snubbed when the nominations are handed out, and even then there are still several deserving candidates for each statuette.  Before reading any father, please remember my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win, especially in the acting categories.  As always, I will point out those discrepancies in the body of the article.

Since any gentleman knows that its ladies first, here are my predictions for the Best Supporting Actress categories.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Linda Emond, Death of a Salesman; Spencer Kayden, Don’t Dress for Dinner; Celia Keenan-Bolger, Peter and the Starcatcher; Judith Light, Other Desert Cities; Condola Rashad, Stick Fly

Right off the bat, I think we can count out Spencer Kayden and Condola Rashad.  Kayden is the only bright spot in a critical and commercial failure, and if it weren’t produced by the not-for-profit Roundabout Theatre Company I’m sure Don’t Dress for Dinner would have already posted a closing notice.  Rashad could be called a dark horse candidate, but while critics loved her, Stick Fly as a whole didn’t make much of an impression and closed months ago.  One of the biggest advantages a Tony nominee can have is being in a currently running show, which leaves Rashad with an uphill battle that I doubt she can win.

While I have not personally seen Peter and the Starcatcher, my understanding is that all of the actors play multiple roles, which always impresses Tony voters and is a major plus for Celia Keenan-Bolger.  Unfortunately, Peter isn’t as “serious” a work as Death of a Salesman or Other Desert Cities, which probably negates any advantage the multiple role trick gave her.  In straight plays, Tony voters tend to reward dramatic acting or its exact opposite, full-on farce; anything in-between like Peter goes underappreciated.

If we rule out Keenan-Bolger, we are left with Judith Light and Linda Emond, with the edge definitely going to the latter.  Emond is clearly the female lead in Salesman, with all of the accompanying stage time and character development, giving her more and better material to work with than her fellow nominees.  This same situation led Nikki M. James to a somewhat surprising but wholly deserved Featured Actress in a Musical win last year, and I expect a similar outcome for Emond.  And lest you think it all comes down to politics, I have seen Salesman and can assure you she is devastatingly good, easily holding her own against Phillip Seymour Hoffman and making even the play’s most famous lines sound fresh and alive.

Will & Should Win:  Linda Emond, Death of a Salesman

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Elizabeth A. Davis, Once; Jayne Houdyshell, Follies; Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Jessie Mueller, On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost the Musical

For me, this is a somewhat odd list of nominees.  It’s not that I think any of the included ladies are bad, but I don’t quite understand what some of them did to edge out other equally fine performances.  For instance, as hilarious as she was singing “Broadway Baby,” was Jayne Houdyshell really that much better than her Follies costars Elaine Page or Terri White?  And how did Elizabeth A. Davis, even with her striking good looks and beautiful singing voice, get herself nominated when the rest of the ensemble of Once went unrecognized?  I suspect I am not the only one who feels this way, and it is a sentiment that will probably prevent either of them from leaving the Beacon theatre a winning next Sunday.

Now, I hesitate to say I don’t want Da’Vine Joy Randolph to win, but…I don’t want her to win.  I haven’t seen her in Ghost, and the problem is I don’t need to in order to know exactly what her performance is like.  I’m sure she’s sassy, fires off a succession of one-liners, and sings the hell out of her big, gospel-tinged solo.  Add in one or two “serious” moments masquerading as character depth, and you have the same performance given by almost every featured black actress in the past ten years.  It’s such a cliché that someone even wrote a song about it, although in fairness to the writers of Ghost they at least had the decency to make Randolph’s character integral to the plot.  But it still isn’t the sort of thing that should be rewarded with Tony Awards, especially because such a win will only encourage musical theatre writers to continue using this stereotype rather than creating roles of substance for black women.

Judy Kaye is perfectly fine in Nice Work If You Can Get It, but I don’t think this role will net the Tony Award-winner a second statuette.  The show as a whole is too run-of-the-mill, and Kaye doesn’t do enough to rise above that.  On the other hand, Jessie Mueller did rise above her subpar show and gave one of the most praised supporting turns of the season.  Everyone who actually saw On a Clear Day agrees that Mueller’s big number was the highlight of the evening and a genuine showstopper.  Plus, Broadway loves a Cinderella story, and what could be more fairy tale-esque than a young woman playing the lead in her Broadway debut, stealing the show, and winning a Tony for it?

Will & Should Win:  Jessie Mueller, On a Clear Day You Can See Forever

That’s all for now.  Check back soon to see which Featured Actors should be practicing their acceptance speeches.  And check out the rest of my Tony predictions here:

Score &Book

Direction& Choreography