The Best Shows of 2015: Part II

With the impending arrival of 2015, it's time to take a look back at the year that was and assess some of the highlights of the year in theatre. I've already shared 5 of my Best of 2015 picks in my previous post, and today it is time to reveal my picks for the Top 5 shows of the past calendar year. As always, this list is limited to productions which officially opened in 2015 and which I actually saw, so think of it more as a personal favorite list rather than a definitive ranking.

Without further ado, here are my favorite theatrical experiences of 2015!

5) Honeymoon in Vegas

Rob McClure (center) and the cast of Honeymoon in Vegas

Jason Robert Brown just can't seem to catch a break when it comes to his Broadway shows. Just like the criminally ignored Bridges of Madison County (my absolute favorite show of 2014), Honeymoon in Vegas was another stellar musical that just couldn't find an audience. Brown's first attempt at full blown musical comedy, this delightful Vegas-set tale featured a brassy, big band score and the kind of witty, tongue-twisting lyrics the composer is known for. The cast was first rate, especially Rob McClure and Brynn O'Malley as the romantic leads, so I couldn't begin to tell you why the well-reviewed show didn't do better at the box office. Maybe it was the prolonged two-month preview period, which made the show seem like old news by the time it opened in mid-January. Maybe it was the presence of Tony Danza in the cast, which many people seemed to mistake for stunt casting even though the TV star actually turned in a rather appealing performance. Thankfully the show received a cast album, and I suspect that like many of Brown's other works this is a show that will be discovered and cherished by many musical theatre fans for years to come.

4) The Color Purple

Jennifer Hudson leads the cast of The Color Purple in a rousing rendition of "Push Da Button."

There are many reason to praise God for John Doyle's absolutely stunning revival of The Color Purple, but perhaps the biggest blessing of this scaled back version is it has allowed critics to see what I saw while rushing the original Broadway production 10 years ago: The Color Purple is a superbly written emotional sucker punch of a show, a harrowing but ultimately joyous celebration of life and overcoming adversity. This production also finally brought Jennifer Hudson to Broadway, something we've all been waiting for since her Oscar-winning turn as Effie White in the Dreamgirls film. And while Hudson is excellent, the talk of the town is sure to be British newcomer Cynthia Erivo, who blows the roof off the Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre as the beleaguered Miss Celie. Erivo inhabits the role with a commanding stage presence that far exceeds her diminutive frame, and her powerhouse voice turns mere songs into soul rattling epiphanies set to music. Even if the rest of the production was garbage, this Color Purple would be worth seeing for Erivo alone. The fact that the rest of the cast often matches her awe-inspiring commitment and intensity makes this easily one of the best shows of the year.

3) The Hunchback of Notre Dame

Michael Arden and Ciara Renee in Paper Mill Playhouse's The Hunchback of Notre Dame.

The best Disney Theatrical show I've ever seen didn't even make it to New York, instead playing across the river in New Jersey's Paper Mill Playhouse. The long-rumored stage adaptation of Disney's Hunchback of Notre Dame took the most problematic film of the studio's Animation Renaissance and de-Disneyfied it, returning to the darker, more melancholy tone of Victor Hugo's original novel. This approach made all the difference, resulting in a decidedly adult show that didn't shy away from the nastier implications of this Parisian-set tragedy. In providing the villainous Claude Frollo with more morally complex, clearly defined motivations, he actually emerged as an even more monstrous and menacing villain than the cartoonishly evil character in the film (a quality augmented by Patrick Page's excellent performance). And let's not forget Michael Arden's wonderfully effective and thrillingly sung take on the title character, nor Ciara Renee's beguiling gypsy Esmeralda. I ultimately understand Disney's decision not to move the show to Broadway (it is not one of the family-friendly spectacles the company has become known for), but that doesn't lessen the sting of the show's all too brief run. I'm just glad I made the trek out to Jersey before it closed.

2) The King and I

Tony-winner Kelli O'Hara and Tony-nominee Ken Watanabe in Lincoln Center's The King and I. I'll say it again: TONY-WINNER KELLI O'HARA!

Simply glorious. That's the best way to describe the absolutely transcendent Lincoln Center Theatre production of Rodgers and Hammerstein's The King and I, one of the most lavishly produced and lovingly crafter musical revivals I've ever seen. From the second the radiant (now Tony-winner!) Kelli O'Hara makes her entrance on the imposing prow of her ship to the final tableau of Anna and the King of Siam surrounded by the next generation, this expertly handled production remains riveting throughout its three hour runtime. Director Bartlett Sher's genius lies in his ability to radically alter the way a show is performed without appearing to do anything at all, to the point where you leave the theatre convinced his take on the material is what the authors had always intended. This King and I functions as both a family friendly musical entertainment and a highly complex character drama, directly tackles issues such as female empowerment and the nature of rule while providing all the eye-popping visuals audiences have come to expect in a modern musical. Anchoring it all is O'Hara and the supremely talented cast, which also includes the hypnotic Ruthie Ann Miles as the King's primary wife, Lady Thiang. This is as good a production of the Rodgers and Hammerstein classic as we're ever likely to see, and it will hopefully run for a good long while.

1) Hamilton

You know your show has a devoted following when a minor character like Peggy Schuyler (who has maybe 10 lines total) has her own rabid fanbase.

How could anything but Hamilton top my list of 2015's best shows? Lin-Manuel Miranda's hip-hop magnum opus has dominated Broadway websites for the better part of the year, while also crossing over into pop-culture in a way few musicals ever do. Yet the reason Hamilton tops my personal list is not its record-breaking financial success, nor its near ubiquity in the theatrical conversation. The show earns the title of Best Show of 2015 due to the fact that when you strip away all the hype, you are left with a near-perfect piece of theatrical writing, brazenly adventurous and yet hugely respectful of all that has come before. The score is a compulsively listenable work of genius, instantly captivating and yet so richly nuanced that new surprises reveal themselves with each repeated hearing. The cast is simply astounding, from Miranda's commanding performance in the title role to Leslie Odom, Jr.'s star making turn as Aaron Burr to the scene stealing Daveed Diggs in the dual roles of the Marquis de Lafayette and Thomas Jefferson. And let's not forget Phillipa Soo's deeply felt performance as Eliza Hamilton or Renee Elise Goldsberry's revelatory (and Tony-worthy) work as Eliza's sister Angelica. Everyone from the top billed stars to the ensemble - one of the hardest working group of dancer/singers on Broadway - give 110% from start to finish, executing Thomas Kail's brilliant staging and Andy Blankenbuehler's hard-hitting choreography flawlessly. Do whatever you have to secure a ticket and witness theatrical history being made, as Hamilton may well prove to be the Best Show of the Decade.


And that wraps up my look back at the Best Shows of 2015. Looking back, the breadth of the type of shows which have been produced, and their artistic daring, gives me great hope for the future of the industry. This is a year where producers took some major risks, and many of them paid off not only artistically but commercially. An intimate musical about a lesbian coming to terms with her closeted father won the Tony and turned a profit, and a hip-hop musical with a multi-ethnic cast has become the most critically and commercially successful musical in years. Here's hoping for a 2016 that is equally varied and artistically ambitious, and be sure to keep checking Broadway Etc. for coverage of all the latest and greatest the New York theatre scene has to offer.

Happy New Year!

2015 Tony Awards React

Kelli O'Hara poses backstage with her newly acquired, long overdue Best Actress Tony Award. All is right with the Broadway community.

SHE FINALLY WON!!!!!

Sorry, had to get that out of the way. My love of Kelli O'Hara is well documented, as is my belief that she should have won a Tony Award long ago. But as they say, better late than never, and now that she is finally "Tony Award-winner Kelli O'Hara" we can focus on my other thoughts about this year's Tony winners and live telecast.

For those who are keeping score, this year I correctly predicted 11 of the 17 categories discussed on this blog for a rather unimpressive 65% accuracy rating (for the complete list of winner, check here). The featured acting categories are what really screwed me over, as I failed to correctly predict a single winner from any of them. I will take solace in the fact the featured categories were some of the most contested races of the evening, with insider opinion very split over who would actually walk away a winner. And honestly, while I enjoy being right, seeing the award races play out exactly how they're expected to doesn't make for a very good telecast.

Here are some more of my thoughts on this year's Tony Awards, broken down by subject:

Winners

A visibly moved Annaleigh Ashford thanked "everyone she's ever met" while accepting her Best Featured Actress Tony for You Can't Take It With You, in one of the many charming acceptance speeches from last night's awards.

I have never been more happy to be wrong than when Kelli O'Hara's name was announced for Best Actress last night. I and many others thought Kristin Chenoweth would win for her flashier performance in On the Twentieth Century, once again keeping O'Hara from the recognition she so rightly deserves. And don't get me wrong, because Chenoweth certainly gives a Tony worthy performance in the Roundabout revival, but O'Hara is positively radiant in The King and I and long overdue for Broadway's highest honor. Seeing the visibly moved O'Hara receive a standing ovation was the highlight of the evening, and I loved everything about O'Hara's acceptance speech ("I don't need this, but now that I have it I've got some things to say").

I do think cutting to Chenoweth immediately after O'Hara's speech was a little awkward. Yes, the pint sized diva was the co-host of the evening, but the bit about her being upset at her loss hit a little too close to home. After winning most of the industry awards this year for a show that is clearly close to her heart, Chenoweth understandably was disappointed and maybe should have been allowed at least a commercial break to regain her composure.

Also, congratulations to both Annaleigh Ashford and Ruthie Ann Miles on their well deserved Featured Actress wins. Both are incredibly talented performers who have been paying their dues in steadily higher profile gigs, and it was wonderful to see their excitement and gratitude for their somewhat surprise wins. I do think Miles (whom I *adored*) benefited from voters being forced to pick which of the three Fun Home actresses they liked the most, splitting the votes enough to allow her to win. It's hard not to be a little disappointed for Judy Kuhn, who is probably overdue for a Tony and will hopefully win one in the next few years. And as Sydney Lucas proved with her incredible performance of "Ring of Keys" she is certainly a force to be reckoned with, and should she continue to pursue the theatre I foresee several more nominations in her future.

I'm happy to say I overwhelmingly approve of this year's winners. I'm glad to see that Tony voters weren't scared off by Fun Home's more challenging subject matter, and to see that chamber musical's all female writing team honored with nods for both book and score was wonderful (now if only their speeches had been televised). The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time was by far my favorite play of the season and I'm thrilled for all the recognition it received, even if I personally thought Hand to God's Steven Boyer was *slightly* more deserving of the Best Actor trophy than the still phenomenal Alex Sharp.

The only category that actively upset me was Christian Borle's frankly undeserved Featured Actor win for Something Rotten!, as the actor's incredibly selfish performance has no relation to the rest of the cast. Why is he the only one with an accent? Why does he only ever talk at other characters rather than to them? Why does his self indulgent preening lack the self-aware edge of the rest of the show's humor???? Most upsetting of all is the fact that Borle, who has proven himself rather versatile over the years (see his work on Smash, the NBC live musicals, or even the MTV telecast of Legally Blonde), has chosen to essentially reprise his Tony wining Peter and the Starcatcher character for Rotten. I would have seen the award go to literally anyone else in this category.

The Hosts

Say what you will about Kristin Chenoweth, but she is not afraid to make herself look stupid in pursuit of a laugh.

I think we were always aware of what a superb host Neil Patrick Harris is, but the two years since the charming star's last Tony hosting gig have proven what a difficult act he is to follow. The telecast producers clearly had trouble locking down a host; typically he or she is announced several months in advance, but we didn't find out Alan Cumming and Kristin Chenoweth would be co-hosting until the day before the nominations came out. And while both Tony winners are charming individually, they were clearly underprepared, most likely due to Chenoweth's busy schedule. Between performing On the Twentieth Century eight times a week and attending all of the press events and awards luncheons that come with being a Tony nominee, Chenoweth likely didn't have a lot of time or energy to devote to the telecast, and unfortunately it showed in how few of the hosts' jokes landed.

At least Chenoweth was game to try anything and seemed happy to be there; Cumming often looked like his mind was on something else. Harris may be gun shy about hosting after the scathing reviews he received for this year's Oscar ceremony (which, in typical NPH fashion, the Tony presenter managed to acknowledge and mock in a way that didn't seem uncomfortable or bitter), but I hope next year's Tony host(s) at least have enough time to find their grove. Chenoweth and Cumming seemed to be encountering a lot of their material for the first time, and their costume-based bits forced categories like Best Book and Score to be presented during commercial breaks instead of on air like they belong.

The Performances

11-year-old Sydney Lucas dazzled during her performance of "Ring of Keys" from 2015 Best Musical winner Fun Home, proving beyond a doubt that she earned her Best Featured Actress nomination this year.

Honestly, these were all over the map and generally disappointing. Broadway show producers, repeat after me: NO MORE MEDLEYS. Medleys rely on the audience's familiarity with the material to supply a lot of the context, something you cannot count on unless you have a very well known revival (we're talking Sound of Music/West Side Story levels of pop culture saturation) or a preexisting score of pop songs (which were originally designed to be stand alone pieces before being shoehorned into a stage show). Pick your show's best, most accessible number, use your allotted 30 second introduction to set it up, and go with it. If that means one or more of your Tony nominated leads gets left out of the number, so be it. I'm sure they would prefer the increased exposure and ticket sales a well-executed Tony number brings to a minute or two of TV time.

Very few of this year's performances came across as well as they do in the theatre. Fun Home worked because they picked a single, complete song that doesn't require extensive knowledge of the show's plot to follow (and also because Sydney Lucas is amazing). The King & I got away with the medley format because of the incredible, enduring popularity of the Rodgers & Hammerstein cannon both as complete shows and as stand alone musical numbers. On the Twentieth Century came across as manic and disjointed because they tried to cram not one, not two, but FOUR separate songs into their allotted 4 minute time slot; the resulting performance didn't do justice to the production or Kristin Chenoweth's central performance, both of which are significantly better and less forced than what was shown on TV.

The placement of the numbers is important as well, although this falls more on the telecast producers than the shows themselves. Something Rotten's showstopping "A Musical" came across as oddly subdued on the telecast, possibly because it took place right after Chenoweth and Cumming's low-key opening number. And unfortunately, some musicals just lack any songs that can be readily enjoyed out of context, which is why the excellent The Visit seemed so bizarre and off-putting on television (in the theatre, the show is still very bizarre, but delightfully so).

I will give the telecast producers this: they mercifully cut the ill-conceived preview numbers from last year, both of which made me *less* interested in the shows they were meant to advertise. And while the announcement of Josh Groban's scheduled performance initially raised eyebrows (how many acceptance speeches would be moved to commercial to accommodate here), I was pleasantly surprised when it was revealed he was singing over the reinstated "In Memorium" segment. The Jersey Boys performance was unsurprisingly boring and exceedingly unnecessary, but having them sing over the credits didn't steal anyone's speech time or production number slot, so I say no harm, no foul.


And there you have it. The 2015 Tony Awards are now on the records books, and the 2015-2016 Broadway season is already in swing with the just opened Jim Parsons vehicle An Act of God. Please keep following this blog for theatre reviews and opinions throughout the year, and check back next May to see what shows and performers are up for next year's awards (I have a feeling this Hamilton show will do alright for itself).

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

The Tony Awards take place this Sunday, and about the only talk you'll hear on the Great White Way is speculation on who will win the coveted spinning medallions. I've already explored the writers, directors, and actors I suspect will win Broadway's highest honor, so now it's finally time to tackle the production awards. Whereas the other Tony categories honor individual excellence, the four production awards recognize the collective efforts of the many artists responsible for producing any piece of theatre. These awards are also the most likely to affect a show's box office fortunes, which make them the most desired honors in the entire theatrical community.

As always, I will be predicting who will win, which does not necessarily align with who I would like to win. Should there be a major discrepancy, I will be certain to point it out in my analysis. At the same time, it bears repeating that all of the shows nominated in these categories have plenty of artistic merit, so even if I personally think a different show should win it doesn't mean the likely winner is undeserving. Now read on to find out which of this season's revivals are most likely to strike Tony gold.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Revival of a Play

The Tony nominated cast of The Elephant Man.

 

Nominees: The Elephant Man; Skylight; This is Our Youth; You Can't Take It With You

This is the unusual category where the majority of nominees are long closed, giving the sole currently running production (West End import Skylight) a tangible advantage over its competitors. In fact, each production's likelihood of winning seems to correlate with how much time has passed since its closing date. The fact that This Is Our Youth was nominated at all remains one of the bigger surprises of this Tony season, as the production struggled at the box office throughout its limited run and closed back in early January. I would be shocked should it actually win, just as I would be similarly surprised to see the well-liked You Can't Take It With You triumph over the weightier dramas in this category (Tony voters tend to be biased against comedies, even ones that have won the Pulitzer Prize).

Although Skylight scored very strong notices, I actually think the Bradley Cooper led Elephant Man will be triumphant this year. That starry revival exceeded all expectations both artistically and at the box office; it was the talk of the town during its limited engagement, and the fact all three principal actors are nominated for Tony Awards shows what a strong impression they and the production made. The feeling towards Skylight seems respectful rather than passionate, which I think will ultimately be the British import's downfall. Then again, absolutely no one expected A Raisin in the Sun to triumph in this category last year, which makes me wary of another surprise this year. I am still officially predicting The Elephant Man, but it only has a slight advantage against its currently running competitor.

Will & Should Win: The Elephant Man

 

Best Revival of a Musical
 

I know I don't predict technical awards on this blog, but The King and I is totally winning Best Costumes. Look at that DRESS!

 

Nominees: The King and I; On the Town; On the Twentieth Century

This category is the most cut and dry of the production categories. Arguments can be made for the exuberant On the Town and better than expected On the Twentieth Century, but neither production can compete with the unadulterated brilliance of Lincoln Center's The King and I. Bartlett Sher's masterful revival of the oft-produced Rodgers and Hammerstein classic has been deemed a definitive production by many in the industry, and is my personal favorite production of this Broadway season (new, revival, musical, or otherwise). Expertly acted, superbly sung, and visually stunning, it calls to mind everything wonderful about the traditional Broadway musical without ever feeling dated or tired.

Should The King and I fail to win this category I would strongly disagree, but could at least accept a victory for the incredibly entertaining On the Town. That production does everything a revival should; it takes a long forgotten show and makes the piece feel exciting, relevant, and fresh again, resulting in one of the most unceasingly entertaining productions of the season. On the Twentieth Century would be a harder choice to defend, as despite a top notch cast the script is starting to show its age. In fact, without leading lady Kristin Chenoweth and the oafish Andy Karl I think the show would be forgotten almost the moment it ends. But these are all a moot points, as Lincoln Center has been the front runner for this award since The King and I was even rumored. The fact the resulting production meets and in my opinion surpasses their much beloved South Pacific from several seasons back just seals the deal.

Will & Should Win: The King and I

Check back this Friday for my take on the two most important races of the season, Best Play and Best Musical. In the meantime, feel free to catch up on the rest of my Tony coverage below!

Nominations React

Best Book & Score

Best Direction & Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor

Best Actress

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

The 2015 Tony Awards are less than one week away, and the buzz surrounding the upcoming telecast has reached a near deafening volume. As I do every year, I am steadily working my way through predictions for all of the major categories, and today I tackle two categories that are on the opposite ends of the predictability spectrum. One race is practically a foregone conclusion, while the other is so neck and neck that we may not fully process who wins until reading the news in the papers Monday morning. As always, I will make sure to predict not only who will win but who deserves to win, doing my best to keep personal feelings at bay so I can objectively judge the competition (but trust me, I have *very* strong opinions about Best Actress in a Musical). 

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Actress in a Play

Dame Helen Mirren will likely be adding "Tony winner" to her extensive list of accomplishments following her universally praised performance as Elizabeth II in The Audience.

Nominees: Geneva Carr, Hand to God; Helen Mirren, The Audience; Elisabeth Moss, The Heidi Chronicles; Carey Mulligan, Skylight; Ruth Wilson, Constellations

I could do my usual routine of listing the pros and cons of each nominee, but let's be honest: does anyone really expect someone besides Helen Mirren to win this award? Mirren is one of the most universally respected and beloved actresses in the business, reprising her Oscar-winning portrayal of Queen Elizabeth II in a play that has already won her an Olivier Award (the West End equivalent of the Tony). She was a front-runner for Best Actress from the moment the show was announced, and at this point she is looking like a virtual lock.

None of this is meant as a slight to the other actresses, all of whom did fine work and seem like lovely people. Hand to God's Geneva Carr has been particularly charming on the awards circuit due to her palpable excitement at just being nominated; she has repeatedly said she thought she would be replaced by a name star at some point during the play's remarkable journey from Off-Off-Broadway to the Great White Way. Elisabeth Moss and Ruth Wilson both have the disadvantage of their shows having already closed (Moss' prematurely), and even if she doesn't win Carey Mulligan will surely be welcomed back with open arms whenever she decides to return to Broadway. But this is Mirren's year, and I would imagine even her competitors agree that she is entirely deserving.

Will and Should Win: Helen Mirren, The Audience

Best Actress in a Musical

As Lily Garland in On the Twentieth Century, Kristin Chenoweth has found the best showcase for her talents since Wicked 12 years ago.

Nominees: Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century; Leanne Cope, An American in Paris; Beth Malone, Fun Home; Kelli O'Hara, The King and I; Chita Rivera, The Visit

This category has been a major sore spot for me the past few years, and will continue to be one until Kelli O'Hara wins this damn award already! She is one of the all-time great singing actresses, and for me ranks behind only Audra McDonald as the most consistently captivating performer on contemporary Broadway. The fact that six-time nominee O'Hara has yet to win Broadway's highest honor is simply ludicrous, and something I desperately hope the voters rectify this year for her absolutely stellar work in Lincoln Center's The King and I. Yes, the lack of a Tony obviously hasn't hurt the golden-voiced soprano's career - she works more consistently than just about anyone else - but it's the principle of the matter, dammit!

Unfortunately, O'Hara once again finds herself going toe to toe with two of Broadway's most beloved divas, previous Tony winners Chita Rivera and Kristin Chenoweth. O'Hara should be most concerned about Chenoweth, who after a disappointing run in 2010's Promises, Promises and long absence has returned in top form with her gutbusting performance in On the Twentieth Century (fun fact: both women attended the same university and studied under the same vocal instructor). Chenoweth's unique set of comic gifts make the actress difficult to cast in most revivals, but the role of Lily Garland fits the pint-sized dynamo like a glove. Chenoweth's performance is also the showier of the two, though comparing her farcical antics to O'Hara's naturalistic charisma points out the inherent problems with trying to pick a "best" actress in such a wide-ranging medium.

As much as it pains me to say it, I think public sentiment may be leaning towards Chenoweth. O'Hara is so reliably excellent and prolific that I think a segment of the community takes her brilliance for granted (similar to how the universally praised Meryl Streep has 19 career Oscar nominations but "only" 3 actual wins). And if I'm being as objective as possible, it is very hard to argue against Chenoweth; her only slight missteps in Twentieth Century stem from weird directorial choices rather than any failings on the actress' part. I will continue to root hard for O'Hara, and think she has a legitimate chance at finally getting her due after years of being overlooked. But if Chenoweth is called to the stage Sunday night, I can't say I'll be surprised. I just hope she has more than 20 seconds to change her wig this time around.

Will Win: Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century
Should Win: Kelli O'Hara, The King and I


That covers all the acting categories. Check back on Wednesday and Friday for my predictions in the four production categories, including the highly coveted Best Musical award. Meanwhile, check out the rest of my Tony coverage below.

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

As the 2015 Tony Awards creep ever closer, my annual predictions have now entered the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production awards seem to be the most coveted of all Tonys, particularly from an advertising perspective. They also tend to provoke the most speculation and lead to the closest races of any given season, and this year's crop of nominees is no different. While doing my best to predict who will actually win, I will also be sure to point out if I think there is a more deserving performer in danger of being overlooked. Of course, anything can happen on Tony Sunday (the Featured categories are a hotbed for surprise nominees and winners), but as of right now, here are my best guesses as to who will go home victorious on June 7th.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Lydia Leonard (right) with fellow Tony nominee Ben Miles in the Royal Shakespeare Company's Wolf Hall.

Nominees: Annaleigh Ashford, You Can't Take It With You; Patricia Clarkson, The Elephant Man; Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Sarah Stiles, Hand to God; Julie White, Airline Highway

Just like their male counterparts, this season's Featured Actress in a Play nominees find themselves in a wide open race. As with her costar K. Todd Freeman, I think Julie White will be severely handicapped by the fact that Airline Highway has almost no awards momentum (it failed to make the cut for Best Play); also, as a previous Tony winner White may be held back by voters who prefer to spread the love. Meanwhile, while Sarah Stiles has one knockout scene in Hand to God along with several supporting bits, I expect her to be overlooked in favor of an actress whose role is a little more fleshed out.

Annaleigh Ashford was hysterical in last fall's You Can't Take It With You, and the widely publicized story of how she performed on pointe despite breaking her toe during rehearsals will certainly earn her some brownie points. But Ashford's show opened and closed a long time ago, a major handicap I don't think her well-liked performance can quite overcome. She is still a dark horse candidate, but I think her chances would be greater if the show had lasted until March or April rather than early February.

Patricia Clarkson and Lydia Leonard are in the best position here, as although they are competing in the "Featured" category both are in practice the female leads of their respective shows (a situation that helped The Book of Mormon's Nikki M. James win her Tony Award back in 2011). Clarkson's show has been closed since mid-February, but thanks to the buzz surrounding Bradley Cooper's performance as the titular Elephant Man I expect most voters saw and remembered her performance. But Lydia Leonard is a Shakespearean actress in a critically acclaimed, two part period drama which provides her nearly twice the material as any of her competitors, which is a pretty hard combination to beat. I expect this is ultimately her race to lose.

Will and Should Win: Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts I & II


 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Judy Kuhn (left) and fellow Featured Actress Tony nominee Sydney Lucas in the Broadway transfer of Fun Home.

Nominees: Victoria Clark, Gigi; Judy Kuhn, Fun Home; Sydney Lucas, Fun Home; Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I; Emily Skeggs, Fun Home

It's lovely Victoria Clark has received her fourth career Tony nomination this year (even if I personally would rather have seen On the Town's Alysha Umphress in this spot). That said, I don't think she has a snowball's chance in hell of actually winning, with the main question in this race being whether or not the three Fun Home actresses cancel one another out and allow Ruthie Ann Miles to complete the ultimate Cinderella story and win a Tony Award for her Broadway debut.

Pitting the Fun Home actresses against one another forces voters to pick a favorite, something that is incredibly difficult and will likely split votes. Judy Kuhn, Emily Skeggs, and young Sydney Lucas all do fantastic work in the chamber musical, each providing some excellent scene work capped off by the score's three best songs (Kuhn's "Days and Days," Skeggs' "Changing My Major," and Lucas' "Ring of Keys"). The incredibly talented Lucas has one of the largest and most important roles in the show, as her scenes with Michael Cerveris form the dramatic crux of the evening and the key to understanding both characters. But Kuhn is practically a theatrical institution, with three previous nominations but no wins to her name, and although her character doesn't say much the actress makes every syllable count. Furthermore, her interpretation of the aforementioned "Days and Days" is some of the most accomplished musical acting currently on Broadway.

In fact, Kuhn is probably the biggest threat to Miles, and I can honestly see the race going either way. Unfortunately the other theatrical awards don't provide much insight into how voters may be leaning, as Kuhn's award-winning work in Fun Home's Off-Broadway production last season made her ineligible this year, clearing the way for Miles to win an Outer Critics Circle Award earlier this month. I personally would favor Miles, as her "Something Wonderful" is every bit as marvelous as Kuhn's big number, with the added bonus that Miles has comparatively more to do and imbues every move her character makes with a multitude of meanings. But if the industry's already established love of Kuhn leads to them honoring the Broadway veteran with her first Tony Award, I couldn't reasonably complain.

Will Win: Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Should Win: Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I


And that wraps up my predictions for the Featured performances, which are the categories that usually bring down my batting average on Tony night. Check back on Friday as I begin to tackle the Lead Actor and Actress categories. You can also catch up on all my previous Tony coverage below, and be sure to check back every Monday and Friday from now until the telecast for more updates!

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor

2015 Tony Predictions: Direction and Choreography

The 2015 Tony Awards are less than 3 weeks away, and all of Broadway is buzzing with speculation over who will be victorious come June 7th. Predicting Tony winners just so happens to be one of my favorite pastimes, and so I'm continuing my coverage of this year's ceremony by doing my best to select the people and productions most likely to walk away with that spinning statuette on Tony Sunday. Of course, the people who *will* win are not always the people who *deserve* to win, so I will also make sure to point out when I think the probable winner doesn't match up with the most deserving person/production. I've already discussed the musical writing awards, so now we move on to the people who tell the actors where to go and what to do: the directors and choreographers.

Best Direction of a Play

Tony nominee Alex Sharp (r) and Enid Graham in a scene from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

Nominees: Stephen Daldry, Skylight; Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Scott Ellis, You Can't Take It With You; Jeremy Herrin, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Moritz von Stuelpnagel, Hand to God

"It's a honor just to be nominated" sounds horribly cliche, but anyone in this category not named Marianne Elliott should definitely remember such tried and true advice come Broadway's big night. Elliott has helmed the most visually stunning play in several seasons, and much of The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's dazzle comes specifically from her staging rather than from the equally impressive production design (which is virtually guaranteed to win some Tonys on its own). Not only that, but Elliott somehow managed to keep her bold and daring staging in service of the story rather than letting it overwhelm the narrative, something a lesser director would surely struggle with.

The other productions in this category have been mostly praised for their top-notch acting, something the director definitely helps mold but is ultimately the creation of the performer (no matter how good a director Hand to God's Moritz von Stuelpnagel may be, you can't teach just anyone to do what Steven Boyer does in that show). Unfortunately for Stephen Daldry, Scott Ellis, and Jeremy Herrin, you have a put a pretty distinct directorial stamp on a show to be a true Tony contender, and their strengths this season lie primarily in getting out of the material's way rather than imposing their will upon it. This is Elliott's award to lose.

Will and Should Win: Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Direction of a Musical

The Bechdel family, the enigmatic clan at the certain of Off-Broadway transfer (and 2014 Pulitzer Prize finalist) Fun Home.

Nominees: Sam Gold, Fun Home; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; John Rando, On the Town; Bartlett Sher, The King and I; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

Now this is a tight race, and one that could conceivably go to any of the five highly deserving nominees. I'm going to go ahead and rule out both Casey Nicholaw and Christopher Wheeldon, as I suspect that should voters want to honor either gentleman they will do so in the Best Choreography category while using this race to recognize someone who is not a double nominee. And while I having nothing but respect for John Rando's refreshing, exuberant work on what many considered a hopelessly dated show, I don't think the On the Town director has a very good shot at winning such a competitive category.

Which leaves Sam Gold and Bartlett Sher, who are so neck and neck that you might as well toss a coin to determine the winner. Both helmed universally acclaimed spring productions that are still fresh in everyone's minds, and both shows owe a large part of their success to their excellent direction. The oft-performed King and I could easily have seemed tired and/or dated, but as Sher did with South Pacific several seasons ago the Tony-winning director has stripped any hint of artifice from the Rodgers and Hammerstein classic and allowed us to see the show afresh. Meanwhile, Gold has done absolutely extraordinary things with Fun Home, reimagining his Off-Broadway staging so completely that you would swear the entire piece was originally conceived and produced in the round. Gold has also guided his small cast to universally excellent performances that stick with you long after the final curtain, with several of his actors up for Tony Awards themselves.

Personally, I would vote for Sher, because ultimately The King and I affected and engaged me in a way Fun Home did not. Despite the many admirable elements of the Off-Broadway transfer, I couldn't connect with the characters on an emotional level even though their lives and concerns more closely mirrored my own experiences than Anna Leonowens' trip to Siam. However, I will fully admit that I seem to be in the minority regarding Fun Home's emotional effectiveness, which I think will ultimately be enough to give Gold the edge.

Will Win: Sam Gold, Fun Home
Should Win: Bartlett Sher, The King and I

Best Choreography

Tony nominees Leanne Cope and Robert Fairchild in one of many pas de deuxs they share in An American in Paris.

Nominees: Joshua Bergasse, On the Town; Christopher Gattelli, The King and I; Scott Graham and Stephen Hoggart, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

This is where I expect Tony voters will acknowledge all of Christopher Wheeldon's work on An American in Paris, one of the season's biggest surprises. Even disregarding its status as the most nominated musical of the season, by all accounts Paris is an enormous dance show with incredibly demanding choreography that is expertly realized by Wheeldon's top notch dancers. It's refreshing to see a new musical that places such an emphasis on dance, an art form that has been distressingly sparse on Broadway in recent years.

The downside to Wheeldon's likely win is that it doesn't leave room for acknowledgement of Joshua Bergasse's incredible choreography for On the Town. Most producers and directors would have trimmed or even cut at least some of the massive dance numbers when reviving On the Town for modern audiences, but thanks to Bergasse the revival's dancing is its strongest suit. Playful yet precise, Bergasse's dances call to mind the inventive whimsy of multiple Tony-winner Susan Stroman, and hopefully this Broadway newcomer will stick around for many years to come.

Bergasse is also the only legitimate threat to Wheeldon; previous winner Casey Nicholaw's Something Rotten! seems to be suffering from a bit of backlash (it didn't win a single Outer Critic's Circle Award despite having more nominations than any other production), and The King and I just doesn't have enough choreography for Christopher Gattelli to legitimately compete with shows literally overflowing with dance. And giving the Best Choreography Tony to a play in a season which saw such a high volume of traditional dancing is so unlikely that it hardly merits discussion.

Will and Should Win: Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris
Who I'd Like to Win Anyway: Joshua Beragsse, On the Town


Keep checking back in the coming weeks for more Tony predictions (updates hopefully every Monday and Friday). In my next post I'll delve into the acting awards, and until then you can read all of my previous Tony predictions below:

Tony Nominee React
Best Book and Score

2015 Tony Nominee React

Bruce Willis (who will make his Broadway debut in the fall) and Mary-Louise Parker (a past Tony-winner for her work in Proof) announce the 2015 Tony Award nominees. 

They're here! After weeks of speculation, we finally know which productions and performers will be competing for the 2015 Tony Awards. You can view a full list of the nominees here, but to check out how I did with my predictions see the list below. Asterisks indicate correction predictions, and asterisks in parentheses indicate a wildcard pick that made the final cut.

Best Play

*The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
(*)Disgraced
*Hand to God
*Wolf Hall Parts One & Two

Best Musical

*An American in Paris
*Fun Home
*Something Rotten!
*The Visit

Best Revival of a Play

*The Elephant Man
*Skylight
This Is Our Youth
*You Can’t Take It with You

Best Revival of a Musical

*The King and I
*On the Town
*On the Twentieth Century

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

*Steven Boyer, Hand to God
*Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man
*Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two
*Bill Nighy, Skylight
*Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

*Geneva Carr, Hand to God
*Helen Mirren, The Audience
*Elisabeth Moss, The Heidi Chronicles
*Carey Mulligan, Skylight
*Ruth Wilson, Constellations

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

*Michael Cerveris, Fun Home
*Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris
*Brian d’Arcy James, Something Rotten!
*Ken Watanabe, The King and I
*Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

*Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century
*Leanne Cope, An American in Paris
*Beth Malone, Fun Home
*Kelli O’Hara, The King and I
*Chita Rivera, The Visit

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Matthew Beard, Skylight
K. Todd Freeman, Airline Highway
Richard McCabe, The Audience
Alessandro Nivola, The Elephant Man
*Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two
Micah Stock, It’s Only a Play

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

*Annaleigh Ashford, You Can’t Take It with You
Patricia Clarkson, The Elephant Man
*Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two
Sarah Stiles, Hand to God
Julie White, Airline Highway

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

*Christian Borle, Something Rotten!
*Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
*Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!
Brandon Uranowitz, An American in Paris
*Max von Essen, An American in Paris

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Victoria Clark, Gigi
*Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Sydney Lucas, Fun Home
*Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I
Emily Skeggs, Fun Home



I may rethink my decision to attempt predicting the Featured Actor/Actress nominees next year, because they really dragged down my accuracy rating. Overall, I correctly predicted 75% of the nominees (77% if you count my wildcard pick of Disgraced for Best Play as correct). Had I stopped at the production and the lead actor races, I would have had a 97% success rate, with the only thing preventing a perfect score being the surprise inclusion of This Is Out Youth in the Best Play Revival category.

Of course, all of this comes with the caveat that in almost every case the Tony committee nominated less people than I was expecting, which is probably the most surprising thing about this year's nominations. It definitively proves that the committee has no desire to honor the maximum number of nominees just because they can, and that last year's narrower than expected Best Musical race was no fluke. On the one hand, I like that this philosphy retains the prestige of an actual nomination - they automatically mean more if less people get them - but on the other hand it leaves a lot of deserving people out in the cold. In general, I have to say I don't mind the committee's selectiveness, as there aren't any overlooked productions or performances I feel strongly about...

...except in the Featured categories, in which the nominations generally came from out of left field and included a whole host of people that weren't on anyone's radar. In retrospect, I should have foreseen the critical adulation of The Elephant Man placing Patricia Clarkson and Alessandro Nivola into contention (how "Jim Parsons-lite" Micah Stock managed to sneak in there remains a mystery). But in general, I feel the cast of On the Town got snubbed, both the men and the women. That revival is packed from top to bottom with fantastic performances, and the fact that only Tony Yazbeck (who is beyond deserving) got nominated is suspicious to me.

I have always maintained that for an actor to be snubbed, there needs to be at least one nominee you would be willing to bump to make room for your preferred performer. I'm going to be somewhat controversial here and nominate Victoria Clark as that person, as I would have much preferred my beloved Alysha Umphress or her costar Elizabeth Stanley in that slot. While I have not seen Gigi, I did see Clark's last two Tony-nominated performances in Sister Act and Cinderella, and in both shows she gave perfectly lovely performances that in no way matched the tone or spirit of the piece she was in. Given what I've read about Gigi, I suspect the same thing has happened again, and while there is something to be said about ensuring your performance is good regardless of the production quality, there is more to be said for being a team player. Both Umphress and Stanley (and their male counterparts, Jay Armstrong Johnson and Clyde Alves) are consummate team players, and it's a shame none of them were rewarded for their efforts.

Other thoughts:

-Something Rotten! better watch out, as its presumptive Best Musical win is now seriously in jeopardy. Both Fun Home and American in Paris scored more nominations, which means that Ben Brantley might not be the only guy in town who was underwhelmed by the showbiz satire.

-This year's tightest race remains Best Actress in a Musical, with Kristin Chenoweth and Kelli O'Hara giving sensational performances in two very different shows. I lean towards O'Hara because in addition to being perfection, she should really just have a Tony already, but I have to admit that if I were a Tony voter I might have to give it to Chenoweth for a flashier performance that exceeded all expectations. (I still love you, Kelli!)

-I'm absolutely thrilled for Brad Oscar, who I thought was joke for joke the funniest cast member of Something Rotten! I'm glad to see he wasn't completely overshadowed by his flashier costar Christian Borle, who like the aforementioned Victoria Clark has a tendency to have an acting style that doesn't really relate to his costars.

-There was a time a few months ago when several people were predicting that Finding Neverland and Doctor Zhivago would be the shows to beat this spring (for the record, I was *not* one of those people). Neither show received a single nomination.

-I am saddened but not surprised to see Honeymoon in Vegas completely excluded from the nominations. I highly enjoyed that production, and I hope that someday soon Jason Robert Brown achieves the elusive critical and commercial hit his talent deserves.


And those are my gut reactions to this year's Tony nominations. Throughout the next six weeks you can expect this blog to feature lots of speculation, predictions, and even another review or two. In meantime, you can take a look at my coverage of the 2015 Tonys so far (and read just how misguided my Featured Actor and Actress predictions were) below:

Tony Rule Change
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Production
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Actor
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Actress
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Featured Actor/Actress

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

It's that time of year again! Now that spring has finally sprung and all of this season's Broadway productions have officially opened, it's time to discuss one of my favorite entertainment events of the year: the Tony Awards! They're Broadway's highest honor, designed to celebrate the industry's best and brightest stars and productions, and a strong showing at the Tonys can help turn an unsuccessful show into a hit (see last year's Best Musical winner A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, which never would have recouped without the box office boost its win provided).

This year's nominations will be announced April 28th, and every day between now and then I will be posting my predictions and analysis of the likely nominees in each of the Big 12 categories (New Play/Musical, Play/Musical Revival, and the 8 acting awards). I've had a pretty good track record in the past, but each year things become more complicated thanks to the ever-changing rules that have seen the maximum number of potential nominees expand. This year, the Best Play, Best Musical, and Best Play Revival categories all have enough eligible productions to prompt an expansion to five nominees. But as last year's four horse Best Musical race proved, just because the committee can nomination five shows doesn't mean it will, which makes predicting how many slots there are to fill just as hard as whittling down the eligible productions.

I've put a lot of thought into this and am fairly confident in my choices, but every year the nominations committee throws the Broadway community at least one curve ball. In acknowledgement of this, I will be listing a Wildcard nominee in each category, representing the production I think has the best chance of sneaking past my official predictions and into Tony Award contention. So without further ado, here are the productions I think will be competing for those much coveted Antoinette Perry Awards!


Best Musical

Brad Oscar and Brian d'Arcy James provide two of the funniest performances in the glitzy new musical comedy Something Rotten!

This may be the trickiest of the production categories to predict, as while there are enough eligible productions to allow five Best Musical nominees, last year's awards showed that is by no means guaranteed. In an odd bit of Tony math, I actually think we'll see the maximum five nominations despite this year's crop of musicals being (in my opinion) less exciting and worthy of that honor. There has yet to be a breakout critical and commercial hit among this year's new musicals, which probably means more variety in the Tony committee's number one picks and therefore a greater chance of the kind of close vote that would provoke a five competitor category.

While there are not sure things, I think Fun Home and Something Rotten! are this year's contenders. Both are well reviewed and recently opened musicals, so the buzz on both is strong for very different reasons. Rotten lovingly mocks Broadway in the same way as past Best Musical winners The Producers and Spamalot, and both the cast and creative team is filled with well-loved industry professionals who have been doing this for years. Fun Home is the rare musical that has made the shortlist for the Pulitzer Prize (even if it didn't win), addressing such important issues as personal identity and parent/child relationships in a way that is both funny and thought provoking. If either show was left off the list on Tony Tuesday, I would be very surprised.

From there, things are a lot less certain. Finding Neverland seems to be the commercial success of the season, and Tony voters clearly love director Diane Paulus, with all three of her previous Broadway credits winning their production categories. That said, it was utterly trashed by critics, to the point where its box office prowess might not matter. The top-notch Honeymoon in Vegas deserves a spot on this list, but since it recently closed after a very rough Broadway run I feel its perceived status as a flop will hinder its chances. The same logic also doesn't bode well for Sting's The Last Ship, although I can also envision a scenario where enough time has passed since its January closing for some nostalgia to set in and see it squeak into the category. An American in Paris scored surprisingly strong reviews, enough to put it into serious contention, and one can't rule out The Visit, as it is the last time Tony voters will ever be able to nominate a new work by theatrical legends Kander & Ebb. And after a surprisingly strong showing in the other industry Best Musical races, ensemble comedy It Shoulda Been You stands a legitimate shot at cracking into this close race.

Nominees
An American in Paris
Fun Home
It Shoulda Been You
Something Rotten!
The Visit

Wildcard
Honeymoon in Vegas


Best Play

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time proves you don't need a realistic set to produce some mind-blowing images.

This category could be easily subtitled "The British Import We Liked the Best." The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time and Wolf Hall are virtual locks, given their ecstatic reception by the New York press. I would also consider it hugely surprising if The Audience wasn't nominated, as it is one of the most successful plays of the season and everybody loves Helen Mirren (even if critics weren't entirely sold on Peter Morgan's script).

Which doesn't leave a whole lot of room for competitors, even assuming a five nominee playing field. The homegrown show with the best chance of cracking into the Best Play race is Hand to God, whose Cinderella story from Off-Off-Broadway play to Main Stem critical hit is catnip to Tony voters who will surely overlook the show's somewhat troubling gender politics. In fact, there is a genuine chance that 2013 Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced doesn't even get nominated, as interest in that production has cooled considerably since its critically acclaimed October premiere. Constellations (another British import) scored surprisingly strong reviews and is much fresher in voters minds, making it a serious contender for the fifth nomination slot. And one can't completely rule out box office smash Fish in the Dark, although Tony voters have recently proven far less influenced by box office success than they used to be; since Fish received kind but not glowing reviews, I don't think it really has a chance of spoiling anyone's fun, but stranger things have happened.

Nominees
The Audience
Constellations
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Hand to God
Wolf Hall Parts I & II

Wildcard
Disgraced


Best Musical Revival

I could have danced all night with this Broadway power couple, both giving exhilarating performances in Bartlett Sher's jaw-droppingly gorgeous staging of The King and I.

With only five eligible productions, Best Musical Revival is the one category we can guarantee won't have five nominees as the Tony rules won't allow it. The committee could nominate as few as three productions, as they did last year, although I suspect they will go with the traditional four as I think last year's reduced field was done primarily to keep all the eligible productions from being nominated (although if we're being honest, Cabaret deserved a nomination last year much more than Les Miserables).

Prediction this category is relatively simple. On the Town and The King and I are both transcendent productions and my two favorite musicals, new or revived, of the season. Both are guaranteed nominations, and at this moment I am 100% certain the Best Revival award will go to one of them. Roundabout Theatre Company took a gamble on producing the somewhat dated On the Twentieth Century (it's one of the most complex musical productions the non-profit has ever done), something that largely paid off thanks to the irrepressible dynamo that is leading lady Kristin Chenoweth. Between Chenoweth's operatic antics and the show's tap dancing porters, Twentieth Century's nomination prospects are looking very strong.

The only real question here is if the fourth slot will go to Side Show, Gigi, or neither. Side Show got better reviews, although it also struggled at the box office and was kicked out of the St. James Theatre in early January to make room for the more profitable sounding Something Rotten! Gigi is currently running (always a plus with Tony voters) and the presence of former Disney Channel star Vanessa Hudgens has thus far proven to be a fairly reliable box office draw, which a few years ago would have had me predicting it for the final nomination slot. Given recent Tony trends, however, I'm giving the edge to Side Show, whose fans are much more passionate than Gigi's and will likely see a Best Revival nod as one way to make up for the show's short Broadway run.

Nominees
The King & I
On the Town
On the Twentieth Century
Side Show

Wildcard
Gigi


Best Play Revival

Yes, there were people in The Elephant Man not named Bradley Cooper (but for better or worse, Cooper is the one who sold the tickets).

Normally a hyper-competitive category, this year's Best Play Revival race is somewhat weaker than normal. Many of the nine eligible productions got respectful reviews, but few provoked much enthusiasm from the press, which makes me suspect that this category may stay at four nominees despite enough revivals to allow for a category expansion. The one sure bet (and likely winner) is the Bradley Cooper led The Elephant Man, which was the talk of the town this past winter and probably the strongest reviewed production in the bunch. Following close behind is the just opened revival of David Hare's Skylight, imported from London's West End with its leads intact.

The first three revivals of the season (This is Our Youth, Love Letters, and You Can't Take It With You) all got very strong reviews, but have also been closed for a very long time. I honestly had forgotten about both Youth and Love Letters until I was looking at a list of eligible productions, and I doubt many others will remember them without prompting, basically killing any chance they have at a nomination. I do expect You Can't Take It With You to make the cut, which leaves one more slot for Tony nominators to fill. It's Only a Play was one of the fall's hot tickets thanks to its starry cast, something that has allowed the production to hang on despite generally poor reviews. Interest has cooled considerably since then, but the fact it's still running and has recently welcomed back headliner Nathan Lane means it has to be considered. I personally don't think it will edge out both The Heidi Chronicles and The Real Thing for the fourth nomination slot - the latter two plays are much better respected than Terrence McNally's showbiz comedy - but you never know.

Nominees
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
Skylight
You Can't Take It With You

Wildcard
The Real Thing


Those are my predictions in the production categories. Check back tomorrow for my Best Actor predictions, and don't be afraid to share your thoughts in the comments section!

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Tony Rule Change