2015 Tony Awards React

Kelli O'Hara poses backstage with her newly acquired, long overdue Best Actress Tony Award. All is right with the Broadway community.

SHE FINALLY WON!!!!!

Sorry, had to get that out of the way. My love of Kelli O'Hara is well documented, as is my belief that she should have won a Tony Award long ago. But as they say, better late than never, and now that she is finally "Tony Award-winner Kelli O'Hara" we can focus on my other thoughts about this year's Tony winners and live telecast.

For those who are keeping score, this year I correctly predicted 11 of the 17 categories discussed on this blog for a rather unimpressive 65% accuracy rating (for the complete list of winner, check here). The featured acting categories are what really screwed me over, as I failed to correctly predict a single winner from any of them. I will take solace in the fact the featured categories were some of the most contested races of the evening, with insider opinion very split over who would actually walk away a winner. And honestly, while I enjoy being right, seeing the award races play out exactly how they're expected to doesn't make for a very good telecast.

Here are some more of my thoughts on this year's Tony Awards, broken down by subject:

Winners

A visibly moved Annaleigh Ashford thanked "everyone she's ever met" while accepting her Best Featured Actress Tony for You Can't Take It With You, in one of the many charming acceptance speeches from last night's awards.

I have never been more happy to be wrong than when Kelli O'Hara's name was announced for Best Actress last night. I and many others thought Kristin Chenoweth would win for her flashier performance in On the Twentieth Century, once again keeping O'Hara from the recognition she so rightly deserves. And don't get me wrong, because Chenoweth certainly gives a Tony worthy performance in the Roundabout revival, but O'Hara is positively radiant in The King and I and long overdue for Broadway's highest honor. Seeing the visibly moved O'Hara receive a standing ovation was the highlight of the evening, and I loved everything about O'Hara's acceptance speech ("I don't need this, but now that I have it I've got some things to say").

I do think cutting to Chenoweth immediately after O'Hara's speech was a little awkward. Yes, the pint sized diva was the co-host of the evening, but the bit about her being upset at her loss hit a little too close to home. After winning most of the industry awards this year for a show that is clearly close to her heart, Chenoweth understandably was disappointed and maybe should have been allowed at least a commercial break to regain her composure.

Also, congratulations to both Annaleigh Ashford and Ruthie Ann Miles on their well deserved Featured Actress wins. Both are incredibly talented performers who have been paying their dues in steadily higher profile gigs, and it was wonderful to see their excitement and gratitude for their somewhat surprise wins. I do think Miles (whom I *adored*) benefited from voters being forced to pick which of the three Fun Home actresses they liked the most, splitting the votes enough to allow her to win. It's hard not to be a little disappointed for Judy Kuhn, who is probably overdue for a Tony and will hopefully win one in the next few years. And as Sydney Lucas proved with her incredible performance of "Ring of Keys" she is certainly a force to be reckoned with, and should she continue to pursue the theatre I foresee several more nominations in her future.

I'm happy to say I overwhelmingly approve of this year's winners. I'm glad to see that Tony voters weren't scared off by Fun Home's more challenging subject matter, and to see that chamber musical's all female writing team honored with nods for both book and score was wonderful (now if only their speeches had been televised). The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time was by far my favorite play of the season and I'm thrilled for all the recognition it received, even if I personally thought Hand to God's Steven Boyer was *slightly* more deserving of the Best Actor trophy than the still phenomenal Alex Sharp.

The only category that actively upset me was Christian Borle's frankly undeserved Featured Actor win for Something Rotten!, as the actor's incredibly selfish performance has no relation to the rest of the cast. Why is he the only one with an accent? Why does he only ever talk at other characters rather than to them? Why does his self indulgent preening lack the self-aware edge of the rest of the show's humor???? Most upsetting of all is the fact that Borle, who has proven himself rather versatile over the years (see his work on Smash, the NBC live musicals, or even the MTV telecast of Legally Blonde), has chosen to essentially reprise his Tony wining Peter and the Starcatcher character for Rotten. I would have seen the award go to literally anyone else in this category.

The Hosts

Say what you will about Kristin Chenoweth, but she is not afraid to make herself look stupid in pursuit of a laugh.

I think we were always aware of what a superb host Neil Patrick Harris is, but the two years since the charming star's last Tony hosting gig have proven what a difficult act he is to follow. The telecast producers clearly had trouble locking down a host; typically he or she is announced several months in advance, but we didn't find out Alan Cumming and Kristin Chenoweth would be co-hosting until the day before the nominations came out. And while both Tony winners are charming individually, they were clearly underprepared, most likely due to Chenoweth's busy schedule. Between performing On the Twentieth Century eight times a week and attending all of the press events and awards luncheons that come with being a Tony nominee, Chenoweth likely didn't have a lot of time or energy to devote to the telecast, and unfortunately it showed in how few of the hosts' jokes landed.

At least Chenoweth was game to try anything and seemed happy to be there; Cumming often looked like his mind was on something else. Harris may be gun shy about hosting after the scathing reviews he received for this year's Oscar ceremony (which, in typical NPH fashion, the Tony presenter managed to acknowledge and mock in a way that didn't seem uncomfortable or bitter), but I hope next year's Tony host(s) at least have enough time to find their grove. Chenoweth and Cumming seemed to be encountering a lot of their material for the first time, and their costume-based bits forced categories like Best Book and Score to be presented during commercial breaks instead of on air like they belong.

The Performances

11-year-old Sydney Lucas dazzled during her performance of "Ring of Keys" from 2015 Best Musical winner Fun Home, proving beyond a doubt that she earned her Best Featured Actress nomination this year.

Honestly, these were all over the map and generally disappointing. Broadway show producers, repeat after me: NO MORE MEDLEYS. Medleys rely on the audience's familiarity with the material to supply a lot of the context, something you cannot count on unless you have a very well known revival (we're talking Sound of Music/West Side Story levels of pop culture saturation) or a preexisting score of pop songs (which were originally designed to be stand alone pieces before being shoehorned into a stage show). Pick your show's best, most accessible number, use your allotted 30 second introduction to set it up, and go with it. If that means one or more of your Tony nominated leads gets left out of the number, so be it. I'm sure they would prefer the increased exposure and ticket sales a well-executed Tony number brings to a minute or two of TV time.

Very few of this year's performances came across as well as they do in the theatre. Fun Home worked because they picked a single, complete song that doesn't require extensive knowledge of the show's plot to follow (and also because Sydney Lucas is amazing). The King & I got away with the medley format because of the incredible, enduring popularity of the Rodgers & Hammerstein cannon both as complete shows and as stand alone musical numbers. On the Twentieth Century came across as manic and disjointed because they tried to cram not one, not two, but FOUR separate songs into their allotted 4 minute time slot; the resulting performance didn't do justice to the production or Kristin Chenoweth's central performance, both of which are significantly better and less forced than what was shown on TV.

The placement of the numbers is important as well, although this falls more on the telecast producers than the shows themselves. Something Rotten's showstopping "A Musical" came across as oddly subdued on the telecast, possibly because it took place right after Chenoweth and Cumming's low-key opening number. And unfortunately, some musicals just lack any songs that can be readily enjoyed out of context, which is why the excellent The Visit seemed so bizarre and off-putting on television (in the theatre, the show is still very bizarre, but delightfully so).

I will give the telecast producers this: they mercifully cut the ill-conceived preview numbers from last year, both of which made me *less* interested in the shows they were meant to advertise. And while the announcement of Josh Groban's scheduled performance initially raised eyebrows (how many acceptance speeches would be moved to commercial to accommodate here), I was pleasantly surprised when it was revealed he was singing over the reinstated "In Memorium" segment. The Jersey Boys performance was unsurprisingly boring and exceedingly unnecessary, but having them sing over the credits didn't steal anyone's speech time or production number slot, so I say no harm, no foul.


And there you have it. The 2015 Tony Awards are now on the records books, and the 2015-2016 Broadway season is already in swing with the just opened Jim Parsons vehicle An Act of God. Please keep following this blog for theatre reviews and opinions throughout the year, and check back next May to see what shows and performers are up for next year's awards (I have a feeling this Hamilton show will do alright for itself).

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

Broadway's biggest night is just over two weeks away, and the entire industry is wondering who will walk away from the 2015 Tony Awards a winner. And since rampant awards speculation is one of my favorite pastimes, I am continuing my survey of the productions and people I think are most likely to win big on June 7th. Now that I've predicted some of the behind the scenes winners, it's time to move on to what I lovingly call the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production awards seem to be the ones that carry the most industry clout, as well as provoking the most intense speculation among the theatrical community, and I would argue they are the ones the general public is most interested in when they tune in to the annual Tony telecast.

Of course, who will win and who is most deserving are not always one and the same, which can make any Tony predictions doubly difficult. So should I feel someone besides the most deserving person will be giving an acceptance speech that Sunday, I will make sure to say so in my analysis. Now without further ado, here are my thoughts on two of the most wide open races in this year's awards: the Featured Actor categories.

Warning: Occasional snark and wild speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathaniel Parker as the volatile Henry VIII in British import Wolf Hall.

Nominees: Matthew Beard, Skylight; K. Todd Freeman, Airline Highway; Richard McCabe, The Audience; Alessandro Nivola, The Elephant Man; Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Micah Stock, It's Only a Play

I'll admit, I was caught completely by surprise when they announced this category's nominees; the only person who was even on my radar was Wolf Hall's Nathaniel Parker. I also find it interesting that of all the acting categories, this was the only one where the votes were close enough to prompt an expansion to six nominees, further indicating what a tight race we have on our hands.

Despite being one of three central figures in the critically acclaimed Elephant Man revival, I think Alessandro Nivola is at a major disadvantage as the only nominee whose show isn't currently running. I also don't have a very good feeling about K. Todd Freeman, as no one seems to be talking about Airline Highway and the show's box office is so paltry that Manhattan Theatre Club has shortened the play's run (a rare move for a non-profit). And since any discussion of The Audience generally begins and ends with how brilliant Helen Mirren is, I don't find Richard McCabe to be particularly competitive in this category.

The three most likely winners are the aforementioned Parker, Skylight's Matthew Beard, and It's Only a Play's Micah Stock. I personally don't see what is Tony worthy about Stock's performance, as the actor's biggest laughs come from the absurd celebrity coats he brings onstage rather than anything the young actor actually says or does. And not to diminish Beard's work, but Skylight is often described as a two-hander between the roundly praised Bill Nighy and Carey Mulligan, which leads me to believe the actor's role is relatively modest and somewhat inconsequential to the plot. Which makes Parker the most likely winner in my eyes, given his larger than life character's importance to Wolf Hall's plot and the fact that Tony voters and the industry in general are clearly enamored with the British double bill.

Will Win: Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall Parts I & II
Should Win: Haven't seen enough nominees to know

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Andy Karl flexes his comic muscles in Roundabout Theatre's On the Twentieth Century.

Nominees: Christian Borle, Something Rotten!; Any Karl, On the Twentieth Century; Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!; Brandon Uranowitz, An American in Paris; Max von Essen, An American in Paris

Multiple nominees from the same show in the same category has been a recurring theme in recent years (see: the two Book of Mormon leads, the multiple women from A Raisin in the Sun last year). This always raises the question of if they will split votes, although the phenomenon has produced enough actual winners (Kinky Boots' Billy Porter, Raisin's Sophie Okonedo) that it is obviously not an insurmountable obstacle.

Of the two Something Rotten! nominees, I actually think Brad Oscar has the edge over his Tony-winning costar Christian Borle. Oscar is a hardworking character actor who has been a part of the community for years, headlines Rotten's biggest and best production number, and gets most of the show's best lines ("A show about cats???"). Borle is certainly a beloved performer, reusing many of the same tricks that led to his previous win for Peter and the Starcatcher, but I suspect voters may choose to spread the love this year. Both men from An American in Paris are helped by being in a heavily nominated show - the fact that Paris is tied for the most nominations virtually guarantees every voter will see it - but at the same time the performances aren't necessarily the first thing people mention when discussing the new Gershwin musical.

And then there's Andy Karl, the wildcard who could spoil everyone's fun. Like several of the nominees in this category, Karl is a longtime staple of the Broadway community who is very well liked. After earning critical acclaim and a Tony nomination for playing the title character in the deadly serious Rocky, he has gone to the opposite end of the spectrum with his over the top performance as Kristin Chenoweth's musclebound boy toy in On the Twentieth Century. Karl's comic timing is impeccable and his chemistry with Chenoweth palpable (they are easily the season's funniest pair), and as much as I would love to see Oscar recognized I think this may well be Karl's year.

Will Win: Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
Should Win: Probably Karl, but I am partial to Something Rotten's Brad Oscar


Check back every Monday and Friday between now and the Tony telecast to see the rest of my predictions, and don't forget to check out the rest of my awards coverage if you haven't already!

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Director and Choreography

2015 Tony Nominee React

Bruce Willis (who will make his Broadway debut in the fall) and Mary-Louise Parker (a past Tony-winner for her work in Proof) announce the 2015 Tony Award nominees. 

They're here! After weeks of speculation, we finally know which productions and performers will be competing for the 2015 Tony Awards. You can view a full list of the nominees here, but to check out how I did with my predictions see the list below. Asterisks indicate correction predictions, and asterisks in parentheses indicate a wildcard pick that made the final cut.

Best Play

*The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
(*)Disgraced
*Hand to God
*Wolf Hall Parts One & Two

Best Musical

*An American in Paris
*Fun Home
*Something Rotten!
*The Visit

Best Revival of a Play

*The Elephant Man
*Skylight
This Is Our Youth
*You Can’t Take It with You

Best Revival of a Musical

*The King and I
*On the Town
*On the Twentieth Century

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

*Steven Boyer, Hand to God
*Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man
*Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two
*Bill Nighy, Skylight
*Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

*Geneva Carr, Hand to God
*Helen Mirren, The Audience
*Elisabeth Moss, The Heidi Chronicles
*Carey Mulligan, Skylight
*Ruth Wilson, Constellations

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

*Michael Cerveris, Fun Home
*Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris
*Brian d’Arcy James, Something Rotten!
*Ken Watanabe, The King and I
*Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

*Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century
*Leanne Cope, An American in Paris
*Beth Malone, Fun Home
*Kelli O’Hara, The King and I
*Chita Rivera, The Visit

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Matthew Beard, Skylight
K. Todd Freeman, Airline Highway
Richard McCabe, The Audience
Alessandro Nivola, The Elephant Man
*Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two
Micah Stock, It’s Only a Play

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

*Annaleigh Ashford, You Can’t Take It with You
Patricia Clarkson, The Elephant Man
*Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two
Sarah Stiles, Hand to God
Julie White, Airline Highway

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

*Christian Borle, Something Rotten!
*Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
*Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!
Brandon Uranowitz, An American in Paris
*Max von Essen, An American in Paris

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Victoria Clark, Gigi
*Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Sydney Lucas, Fun Home
*Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I
Emily Skeggs, Fun Home



I may rethink my decision to attempt predicting the Featured Actor/Actress nominees next year, because they really dragged down my accuracy rating. Overall, I correctly predicted 75% of the nominees (77% if you count my wildcard pick of Disgraced for Best Play as correct). Had I stopped at the production and the lead actor races, I would have had a 97% success rate, with the only thing preventing a perfect score being the surprise inclusion of This Is Out Youth in the Best Play Revival category.

Of course, all of this comes with the caveat that in almost every case the Tony committee nominated less people than I was expecting, which is probably the most surprising thing about this year's nominations. It definitively proves that the committee has no desire to honor the maximum number of nominees just because they can, and that last year's narrower than expected Best Musical race was no fluke. On the one hand, I like that this philosphy retains the prestige of an actual nomination - they automatically mean more if less people get them - but on the other hand it leaves a lot of deserving people out in the cold. In general, I have to say I don't mind the committee's selectiveness, as there aren't any overlooked productions or performances I feel strongly about...

...except in the Featured categories, in which the nominations generally came from out of left field and included a whole host of people that weren't on anyone's radar. In retrospect, I should have foreseen the critical adulation of The Elephant Man placing Patricia Clarkson and Alessandro Nivola into contention (how "Jim Parsons-lite" Micah Stock managed to sneak in there remains a mystery). But in general, I feel the cast of On the Town got snubbed, both the men and the women. That revival is packed from top to bottom with fantastic performances, and the fact that only Tony Yazbeck (who is beyond deserving) got nominated is suspicious to me.

I have always maintained that for an actor to be snubbed, there needs to be at least one nominee you would be willing to bump to make room for your preferred performer. I'm going to be somewhat controversial here and nominate Victoria Clark as that person, as I would have much preferred my beloved Alysha Umphress or her costar Elizabeth Stanley in that slot. While I have not seen Gigi, I did see Clark's last two Tony-nominated performances in Sister Act and Cinderella, and in both shows she gave perfectly lovely performances that in no way matched the tone or spirit of the piece she was in. Given what I've read about Gigi, I suspect the same thing has happened again, and while there is something to be said about ensuring your performance is good regardless of the production quality, there is more to be said for being a team player. Both Umphress and Stanley (and their male counterparts, Jay Armstrong Johnson and Clyde Alves) are consummate team players, and it's a shame none of them were rewarded for their efforts.

Other thoughts:

-Something Rotten! better watch out, as its presumptive Best Musical win is now seriously in jeopardy. Both Fun Home and American in Paris scored more nominations, which means that Ben Brantley might not be the only guy in town who was underwhelmed by the showbiz satire.

-This year's tightest race remains Best Actress in a Musical, with Kristin Chenoweth and Kelli O'Hara giving sensational performances in two very different shows. I lean towards O'Hara because in addition to being perfection, she should really just have a Tony already, but I have to admit that if I were a Tony voter I might have to give it to Chenoweth for a flashier performance that exceeded all expectations. (I still love you, Kelli!)

-I'm absolutely thrilled for Brad Oscar, who I thought was joke for joke the funniest cast member of Something Rotten! I'm glad to see he wasn't completely overshadowed by his flashier costar Christian Borle, who like the aforementioned Victoria Clark has a tendency to have an acting style that doesn't really relate to his costars.

-There was a time a few months ago when several people were predicting that Finding Neverland and Doctor Zhivago would be the shows to beat this spring (for the record, I was *not* one of those people). Neither show received a single nomination.

-I am saddened but not surprised to see Honeymoon in Vegas completely excluded from the nominations. I highly enjoyed that production, and I hope that someday soon Jason Robert Brown achieves the elusive critical and commercial hit his talent deserves.


And those are my gut reactions to this year's Tony nominations. Throughout the next six weeks you can expect this blog to feature lots of speculation, predictions, and even another review or two. In meantime, you can take a look at my coverage of the 2015 Tonys so far (and read just how misguided my Featured Actor and Actress predictions were) below:

Tony Rule Change
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Production
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Actor
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Actress
2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Featured Actor/Actress

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part IV (Featured Actor/Actress)

Every year I make a ton of Tony nominee predictions, and every year I struggle over whether to include the Featured Actor and Actress categories. These are often the hardest categories to get a read on before the nominations come out, since most performances in a given season fall under the Featured umbrella. Making things even more complex this year is the fact that these categories can now include anywhere from five to seven nominees, and I expect we'll see several of these races expand past the traditional five performer cap.

I'm basing a large portion of these predictions on speculation and gut feeling, as I unfortunately have not seen anywhere near all the eligible performances. I will also be predicting at least one Wildcard nominee in each category in an attempt to cover my bases in case the nominations committee decides to forgo the obvious candidates. Check back Tuesday afternoon to see how I did!


Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathaniel Parker (right) as King Henry VIII, the source of all the trouble in the Royal Shakespeare Company's transfer of Wolf Hall.

The large number of ensemble plays this season makes this category a virtual nightmare to predict, especially since it lacks any obvious frontrunners. The smart money says at least some of Wolf Hall's sprawling ensemble makes the cut, probably from among the plays' key players like Nathaniel Parker's Henry VIII or Paul Jessen's multiple clergymen. Fellow West End import The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time will also likely produce a competitor in this category, with Ian Barford's beautiful complex portrayal of the protagonist's father a prime candidate for recognition. And while Helen Mirren is the undisputed star of The Audience, she wouldn't be able to give the performance she does without help from all those prime ministers she interacts with; Mirren's star wattage will almost surely lift a costar or two into consideration (perhaps Dakin Matthews' Winston Churchill or Rufus Wright's Tony Blair).

Last fall's You Can't Take It With You was filled with memorable supporting turms, chief among them James Earl Jones as the Sycamore family patriarch. Jones is a very strong candidate for a fourth career nomination, and I also have a fairly good feeling that Bryce Pinkham will be making a return trip to the Tony red carpet for his role in The Heidi Chronicles (Boyd Gaines won a Tony for playing Pinkham's role in the play's original production). Hand to God was so well received that the industry's love of the boundary pushing play could translate into multiple acting nominations, although in all honesty both of the male supporting players pale in comparison to the brilliance of leading man Steven Boyer. Marc Kudish is respected enough among his peers that it could bolster his chances, even if his role as the local pastor is mostly reactionary. And while it's not inconceivable that one of the supporting players in It's Only a Play could get nominated, I do think it unlikely, as Nathan Lane's lead performance was the only one of any note in that revival.

Nominees
Ian Barford, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
James Earl Jones, You Can't Take It With You
Marc Kudish, Hand to God
Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall
Bryce Pinkham, The Heidi Chronicles

Wildcard
Paul Jessen, Wolf Hall


Best Featured Actress in a Play

Annaleigh Ashford has no vanity when it comes to the characters she plays, as proven by this charming photo from You Can't Take It With You.

This is still a wide open category, although with a few more safe bets than the Featured Actor race. I will be shocked if Annaleigh Ashford doesn't get nominated for her delightfully daffy ballerina in You Can't Take It With You, and I think there is a good chance she will be joined by her costar and onstage mother Kristine Nielsen. You Can't Take It With You also featured a textbook definition of a scene-stealer in Julie Halston, whose Tony worthiness can be summed up in two words: the stairs. (If you didn't see the show, Halston turned an almost entirely wordless drunken climb up the set's staircase into a showstopping moment). And as the most prominent female presence in critical darling Wolf Hall, Lydia Leonard is in a very good position to find her name listed among the nominees on Tony Tuesday.

I adored Francesca Faridany in Curious Incident, with her soothing motherly presence serving as the perfect counterpoint to the play's frantic portrayal of an autistic youth's journey of self-discovery. But her equally strong costar Enid Graham's role calls for more obvious "acting," and if only one of these ladies makes the cut it will likely be Graham. This category is also It's Only a Play's best chance at scoring an acting nomination, as Stockard Channing's fading diva was the revival's funniest and most effective performance after leading man Nathan Lane. Fish in the Dark, Broadway's other star-studded ensemble comedy, could also find itself represented here thanks to the performances of Rita Wilson (who is unfortunately on medical leave from the production but is scheduled to return soon after nominations are announced), Rosie Perez, and Jayne Houdyshell. This is a close race that will benefit from the committee's ability to nominate more than five performances, although I doubt the votes will be *quite* close enough to force an expansion to the maximum seven.

Nominees
Annaleigh Ashford, You Can't Take It With You
Stockard Channing, It's Only a Play
Francesca Faridany, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Enid Graham, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Julie Halston, You Can't Take It With You
Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall

Wildcard
Kristine Nielsen, You Can't Take It With You
Rita Wilson, Fish in the Dark


Best Featured Actor in a Musical

I'll be honest: while I enjoy him, I don't *quite* get the unabashed love for Christian Borle (center), a major contender for this year's awards thanks to his over the top performance in Something Rotten!

This is a very competitive category, as many of the season's big musicals have multiple performances worthy of inclusion here. If the other industry awards are anything to go by, Something Rotten! will be the show to beat this season, and will surely produce at least one Featured Actor nominee. Conventional wisdom says it will be Christian Borle's preening, pompous Billie Shakespeare, although I personally preferred the hammy antics of Brad Oscar as the soothsayer who suggests creating a musical in the first place. Not only does Oscar feel like he's in the same show as everyone else (Borle's collection of tics, while very funny, often make is seem like he's wandered in from a different production), but Oscar also leads the showstopping "A Musical" number that the company will almost surely perform on this year's Tony telecast. I suspect both men will find themselves nominated on Tuesday morning.

Last fall's On the Town also produced a pair of Tony-worthy performances from sailors Jay Armstrong Johnson and Clyde Alves. If only one of these gentlemen makes the cut, my money is on Johnson, whose incredibly endearing Chip also benefits from having one of this season's best scene partners, Alysha Umphress' sensational Hildy. From the spring shows, Andy Karl makes quite an impression as Kristin Chenoweth's buffoonish boy toy in On the Twentieth Century, and has thus far been rewarded with Featured Actor nominations in the various guild awards. I strongly suspect the Tony committee will follow suit, making Karl one of the relatively rare back-to-back acting nominees. And while Doctor Zhivago received some of the harshest reviews of the season, I wouldn't be surprised if Paul Alexander Nolan's supporting turn in that show nets him some Tony love, as he was one of the overblown epic's few highlights. And finally, as recipients of both Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nominations, It Shoulda Been You's Josh Grisetti and An American in Paris' Max von Essen are very strong contenders that I would be surprised to see excluded from this year's proceedings.

Nominees
Christian Borle, Something Rotten!
Josh Grisetti, It Shoulda Been You
Jay Armstrong Johnson, On the Town
Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!
Max von Essen, An American in Paris

Wildcard
Paul Alexander Nolan, Doctor Zhivago


Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Alysha Umphress in On the Town #HildyneedsaTony

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Hildy needs a Tony. I firmly believe that had On the Town opened during the spring glut of shows and was therefore fresh on everyone's mind, Alysha Umphress would be this year's James Monroe Inglehart (re: the clear frontrunner). But Umphress has done shockingly poorly in this year's guild awards, which makes me seriously question her chances at even a nomination, let along a win. Her costars Megan Fairchild and Elizabeth Stanley have both been nominated for other awards, and could potentially edge Umphress out here, particularly the sublime Stanley. I still think Umphress has a good shot at the nomination, but she is not a sure thing and will have an uphill battle if she wants to take home the actual trophy.

Fun Home's Judy Kuhn, however, is pretty close to a sure thing, even if her immense talent is underutilized by Jeanine Tesori and Judy Kuhn's chamber musical. I also think the love for Something Rotten! will spread to industry favorite Heidi Blickenstaff, similarly underutilized but benefiting from being the largest female presence in this spring's industry darling. The King and I's Ruthie Ann Miles is *not* underutilized, but her performance is so compelling that you still want more of her deliciously complicated Lady Thiang. It's quite an accomplished Broadway debut for the actress and will almost assuredly lead to a Tony nomination for the captivating performer, who made a splash in the Public Theatre's Here Lies Love back in 2013.

Conventional wisdom indicates that at least one of the many supporting players in It Shoulda Been You gets nominated in this category, although the community's love of both Tyne Daly and Harriett Harris isn't quite strong enough to grant either one of them an automatic nomination, especially in a field as crowded as this one. A similar logic applies to Victoria Clark in Gigi and Nancy Opel in Honeymoon in Vegas, both well-liked talents whose respective shows don't have a lot of momentum headed into Tony Tuesday. And On the Twentieth Century's Mary Louise Wilson is also in contention for her daffy supporting turn as a religious widow, meaning this is really anyone's race.

Nominees
Heidi Blickenstaff, Something Rotten!
Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I
Elizabeth Stanley, On the Town
Alysha Umphress, On the Town

Wildcard
Tyne Daly, It Shoulda Been You


And so concludes my nomination predictions for the 2015 Tony Awards. Tomorrow morning at 8:30 am we'll find out how well I did, and check back tomorrow afternoon to see my gut reactions to this year's nominations. Then strap in for an exciting month of speculation, coverage, and maybe even an extra review or two as we march towards this year's ceremony on June 7th! Until then, you can catch up on what you missed below:

Tony Rule Change
Nominee Predictions: Production
Nominee Predictions: Best Actor
Nominee Predictions: Best Actress

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part III (Best Actress)

Tony Tuesday is right around the corner, with the 2015 nominees scheduled to be announced bright and early on Tuesday, April 28th. (I've always found it odd that a profession where most everyone works nights announces anything so early in the morning, but that is neither here nor there.) I've already discussed which productions and leading men I expect to score nominations, and now it's time to turn my attention to Broadway's leading ladies. The latest Tony rule change allows anywhere between five and seven nominees in each category, leaving me to puzzle out not only the names of the contenders but how many of them I expect there to be. I doubt every category to automatically expand to seven nominees, but I don't expect every category to stay capped at five either. And in the name of covering my bases for the inevitable Tony curveball nomination, I'm also naming a wildcard performer who I feel has the best chance of unseating one of my official predictions.


Best Actress

Dame Helen Mirren is practically theatrical royalty, and she is playing royalty in the box office smash The Audience. She is one of this year's few sure things when it comes to the Tony Awards.

There are very few givens for this year's Tony Awards, but one of those givens is that Helen Mirren will be up for Best Actress. The Oscar winner is reprising her much lauded portrayal of Queen Elizabeth II in The Audience, one of this spring's biggest box office successes. Some critics weren't overly impressed with playwright Peter Morgan's script, but everyone agreed Mirren made the show worth seeing, and in all honesty this award is likely hers to lose. And although not quite the lock Mirren is, Skylight's Carey Mulligan is another actress virtually guaranteed an invite to this year's ceremony at Radio City. 

I would be very surprised to see Constellations' Ruth Wilson excluded from this year's race, as she drew universal raves for her performance in Manhattan Theatre Club's two-hander. Less certain is a nomination for Elisabeth Moss, as the revival of Wendy Wasserstein's The Heidi Chronicles was not the critical home run many people were expecting and has already posted an early closing notice due to lackluster box office. Still, even those who weren't enamored with the production generally liked the Mad Men actress' performance, particularly her delivery of a key monologue during the play's second act. I'm going to cut the former Peggy Olsen some slack and consider her to be among this year's nominees.

Which still leaves at least one nomination up for grabs with no obvious candidate to fill it. Perhaps Maggie Gyllenhaal will join her brother Jake among this year's nominees for her performance in Roundabout's well liked (but not loved) revival of The Real Thing. Glenn Close's much ballyhooed return to Broadway in Edward Albee's A Delicate Balance failed to generate much box office heat, but the actress remains an industry favorite and the weaker field of competitors could work in her favor. Hand to God's Geneva Carr has been ruled eligible in this category instead of the Featured Actress race, and her strong performance combined with an obvious critical love for the boundary pushing play makes her a strong contender. In fact, I suspect Carr will edge out more famous names like Renee Fleming (currently playing an opera diva in Living on Love) and previous Tony winner Blythe Danner, whose fall play The Country House has been entirely absent from the end of season chatter.

Nominees
Geneva Carr, Hand to God
Helen Mirren, The Audience
Elisabeth Moss, The Heidi Chronicles
Carey Mulligan, Skylight
Ruth Wilson, Constellations

Wildcard
Glenn Close, A Delicate Balance


Best Actress in a Musical

Pint sized powerhouse Kristin Chenoweth is giving 110% in Roundabout's On the Twentieth Century, and will surely get a Tony nomination for her efforts.

Anyone who has been following this blog will know I am *heavily* rooting for Kelli O'Hara to win this damn award already! She is one of our most gifted singing actresses, and she is once again giving a masterclass performance in Lincoln Center's The King and I, a production I literally don't have enough positive adjectives for. There is no reality in which her reteaming with director Bartlett Sher fails to net the actress her sixth career nomination, as all three of their previous collaborations resulted not only in nominations but some of O'Hara's most legendary performances. I know several Tony voters specifically held off on voting for the golden voiced soprano last year under the assumption she was a shoe in to win this year (which is so not how these things should work, but that's a rant for another time); her failing to even get nominated would be one of the most shocking things to happen with the Tony nominations in years.

My unbridled love of O'Hara aside, I have to admit that Broadway's other blonde Oklahoma native is going to give O'Hara a serious run for her money. After a poorly received performance in Promises, Promises and five years away from the Broadway stage, Kristin Chenoweth is firing on all cylinders in On the Twentieth Century, a role that seems tailor-made for her unique combination of talents. Her nomination is guaranteed, and I think everyone agrees that she and O'Hara are this year's front runners. (Fun fact: Chenoweth and O'Hara both went to the same school and had the same vocal instructor, who must be ridiculously proud.) The final sure thing in this race is a nod for Broadway legend Chita Rivera in The Visit, with the actress once again paired with the writing team of Kander, Ebb, and McNally, who crafted both of Rivera's previous Tony-winning roles around her singular set of talents.

After that, things become much harder to predict. Brynn O'Malley *deserves* recognition for her sterling work in Honeymoon in Vegas, although I worry what the show's truncated Broadway run means for her Tony prospects. I'd also love to see a joint nomination for Side Show's Erin Davie and Emily Padgett, but the committee has already decided to consider the actresses separately and their show's premature closing will severely limit their chances. If pressed to pick a favorite, I'd give the slight edge to Padgett for the more emotionally complex of the two roles, as Tony voters have shown an increasing appreciation for nuance over flash in the past few seasons. This same trend also increases Beth Malone's chances for her moving portrayal of adult Alison in Fun Home, although I personally would consider it more of a featured role.

The final three actresses that I think have a legitimate shot are Gigi's Vanessa Hudgens, Finding Neverland's Laura Michelle Kelly, and An American in Paris' Leanne Cope. I suspect Tony voters are ultimately too snobbish to give a Tony nomination to former High School Musical star Hudgens, and the fact that her show was pretty resoundingly trashed by critics doesn't help. On the flip side, Kelly escaped the vitriol hurled towards Neverland virtually unscathed and possibly looking even better by comparison. And Paris has been doing surprisingly well at both the box office and in the various guild awards, all of which have singled out Cope for her Broadway debut. I give the edge to Cope and Kelly, but I wouldn't be shocked to see any of these women nominated come Tuesday morning.

Nominees
Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century
Leanne Cope, An American in Paris
Laura Michelle Kelly, Finding Neverland
Beth Malone, Fun Home
Kelli O'Hara, The King and I
Chita Rivera, The Visit

Wildcard
Brynn O'Malley, Honeymoon in Vegas


That covers this year's leading performances; check back tomorrow for my analysis of the hardest categories to predict, the Featured Actor/Actress races. In the meantime, feel free to share which leading lady you'd like to see nominated in the comments, and don't forget to check out any Tony coverage you may have missed!

Tony Rule Change
2015 Nominee Predictions: Production
2015 Nominee Predictions: Best Actor

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

It's that time of year again! Now that spring has finally sprung and all of this season's Broadway productions have officially opened, it's time to discuss one of my favorite entertainment events of the year: the Tony Awards! They're Broadway's highest honor, designed to celebrate the industry's best and brightest stars and productions, and a strong showing at the Tonys can help turn an unsuccessful show into a hit (see last year's Best Musical winner A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, which never would have recouped without the box office boost its win provided).

This year's nominations will be announced April 28th, and every day between now and then I will be posting my predictions and analysis of the likely nominees in each of the Big 12 categories (New Play/Musical, Play/Musical Revival, and the 8 acting awards). I've had a pretty good track record in the past, but each year things become more complicated thanks to the ever-changing rules that have seen the maximum number of potential nominees expand. This year, the Best Play, Best Musical, and Best Play Revival categories all have enough eligible productions to prompt an expansion to five nominees. But as last year's four horse Best Musical race proved, just because the committee can nomination five shows doesn't mean it will, which makes predicting how many slots there are to fill just as hard as whittling down the eligible productions.

I've put a lot of thought into this and am fairly confident in my choices, but every year the nominations committee throws the Broadway community at least one curve ball. In acknowledgement of this, I will be listing a Wildcard nominee in each category, representing the production I think has the best chance of sneaking past my official predictions and into Tony Award contention. So without further ado, here are the productions I think will be competing for those much coveted Antoinette Perry Awards!


Best Musical

Brad Oscar and Brian d'Arcy James provide two of the funniest performances in the glitzy new musical comedy Something Rotten!

This may be the trickiest of the production categories to predict, as while there are enough eligible productions to allow five Best Musical nominees, last year's awards showed that is by no means guaranteed. In an odd bit of Tony math, I actually think we'll see the maximum five nominations despite this year's crop of musicals being (in my opinion) less exciting and worthy of that honor. There has yet to be a breakout critical and commercial hit among this year's new musicals, which probably means more variety in the Tony committee's number one picks and therefore a greater chance of the kind of close vote that would provoke a five competitor category.

While there are not sure things, I think Fun Home and Something Rotten! are this year's contenders. Both are well reviewed and recently opened musicals, so the buzz on both is strong for very different reasons. Rotten lovingly mocks Broadway in the same way as past Best Musical winners The Producers and Spamalot, and both the cast and creative team is filled with well-loved industry professionals who have been doing this for years. Fun Home is the rare musical that has made the shortlist for the Pulitzer Prize (even if it didn't win), addressing such important issues as personal identity and parent/child relationships in a way that is both funny and thought provoking. If either show was left off the list on Tony Tuesday, I would be very surprised.

From there, things are a lot less certain. Finding Neverland seems to be the commercial success of the season, and Tony voters clearly love director Diane Paulus, with all three of her previous Broadway credits winning their production categories. That said, it was utterly trashed by critics, to the point where its box office prowess might not matter. The top-notch Honeymoon in Vegas deserves a spot on this list, but since it recently closed after a very rough Broadway run I feel its perceived status as a flop will hinder its chances. The same logic also doesn't bode well for Sting's The Last Ship, although I can also envision a scenario where enough time has passed since its January closing for some nostalgia to set in and see it squeak into the category. An American in Paris scored surprisingly strong reviews, enough to put it into serious contention, and one can't rule out The Visit, as it is the last time Tony voters will ever be able to nominate a new work by theatrical legends Kander & Ebb. And after a surprisingly strong showing in the other industry Best Musical races, ensemble comedy It Shoulda Been You stands a legitimate shot at cracking into this close race.

Nominees
An American in Paris
Fun Home
It Shoulda Been You
Something Rotten!
The Visit

Wildcard
Honeymoon in Vegas


Best Play

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time proves you don't need a realistic set to produce some mind-blowing images.

This category could be easily subtitled "The British Import We Liked the Best." The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time and Wolf Hall are virtual locks, given their ecstatic reception by the New York press. I would also consider it hugely surprising if The Audience wasn't nominated, as it is one of the most successful plays of the season and everybody loves Helen Mirren (even if critics weren't entirely sold on Peter Morgan's script).

Which doesn't leave a whole lot of room for competitors, even assuming a five nominee playing field. The homegrown show with the best chance of cracking into the Best Play race is Hand to God, whose Cinderella story from Off-Off-Broadway play to Main Stem critical hit is catnip to Tony voters who will surely overlook the show's somewhat troubling gender politics. In fact, there is a genuine chance that 2013 Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced doesn't even get nominated, as interest in that production has cooled considerably since its critically acclaimed October premiere. Constellations (another British import) scored surprisingly strong reviews and is much fresher in voters minds, making it a serious contender for the fifth nomination slot. And one can't completely rule out box office smash Fish in the Dark, although Tony voters have recently proven far less influenced by box office success than they used to be; since Fish received kind but not glowing reviews, I don't think it really has a chance of spoiling anyone's fun, but stranger things have happened.

Nominees
The Audience
Constellations
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Hand to God
Wolf Hall Parts I & II

Wildcard
Disgraced


Best Musical Revival

I could have danced all night with this Broadway power couple, both giving exhilarating performances in Bartlett Sher's jaw-droppingly gorgeous staging of The King and I.

With only five eligible productions, Best Musical Revival is the one category we can guarantee won't have five nominees as the Tony rules won't allow it. The committee could nominate as few as three productions, as they did last year, although I suspect they will go with the traditional four as I think last year's reduced field was done primarily to keep all the eligible productions from being nominated (although if we're being honest, Cabaret deserved a nomination last year much more than Les Miserables).

Prediction this category is relatively simple. On the Town and The King and I are both transcendent productions and my two favorite musicals, new or revived, of the season. Both are guaranteed nominations, and at this moment I am 100% certain the Best Revival award will go to one of them. Roundabout Theatre Company took a gamble on producing the somewhat dated On the Twentieth Century (it's one of the most complex musical productions the non-profit has ever done), something that largely paid off thanks to the irrepressible dynamo that is leading lady Kristin Chenoweth. Between Chenoweth's operatic antics and the show's tap dancing porters, Twentieth Century's nomination prospects are looking very strong.

The only real question here is if the fourth slot will go to Side Show, Gigi, or neither. Side Show got better reviews, although it also struggled at the box office and was kicked out of the St. James Theatre in early January to make room for the more profitable sounding Something Rotten! Gigi is currently running (always a plus with Tony voters) and the presence of former Disney Channel star Vanessa Hudgens has thus far proven to be a fairly reliable box office draw, which a few years ago would have had me predicting it for the final nomination slot. Given recent Tony trends, however, I'm giving the edge to Side Show, whose fans are much more passionate than Gigi's and will likely see a Best Revival nod as one way to make up for the show's short Broadway run.

Nominees
The King & I
On the Town
On the Twentieth Century
Side Show

Wildcard
Gigi


Best Play Revival

Yes, there were people in The Elephant Man not named Bradley Cooper (but for better or worse, Cooper is the one who sold the tickets).

Normally a hyper-competitive category, this year's Best Play Revival race is somewhat weaker than normal. Many of the nine eligible productions got respectful reviews, but few provoked much enthusiasm from the press, which makes me suspect that this category may stay at four nominees despite enough revivals to allow for a category expansion. The one sure bet (and likely winner) is the Bradley Cooper led The Elephant Man, which was the talk of the town this past winter and probably the strongest reviewed production in the bunch. Following close behind is the just opened revival of David Hare's Skylight, imported from London's West End with its leads intact.

The first three revivals of the season (This is Our Youth, Love Letters, and You Can't Take It With You) all got very strong reviews, but have also been closed for a very long time. I honestly had forgotten about both Youth and Love Letters until I was looking at a list of eligible productions, and I doubt many others will remember them without prompting, basically killing any chance they have at a nomination. I do expect You Can't Take It With You to make the cut, which leaves one more slot for Tony nominators to fill. It's Only a Play was one of the fall's hot tickets thanks to its starry cast, something that has allowed the production to hang on despite generally poor reviews. Interest has cooled considerably since then, but the fact it's still running and has recently welcomed back headliner Nathan Lane means it has to be considered. I personally don't think it will edge out both The Heidi Chronicles and The Real Thing for the fourth nomination slot - the latter two plays are much better respected than Terrence McNally's showbiz comedy - but you never know.

Nominees
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
Skylight
You Can't Take It With You

Wildcard
The Real Thing


Those are my predictions in the production categories. Check back tomorrow for my Best Actor predictions, and don't be afraid to share your thoughts in the comments section!

Previous Coverage
Tony Rule Change

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part III

Although they seem so very far away, the 2015 Tony Awards will be here before you know it. The current winter lull on Broadway is the perfect time to take stock of which fall productions and performers have made a particularly strong impression on critics and Tony voters, thereby keeping them in the conversation when the time comes to hand out Tony nominations on April 28th. I've already discussed the production and lead actor/actress races, so now its time to turn my attention to the Featured Actor and Actress categories. This where I expect the new rule that allows for up to seven nominees in performance categories to have the greatest effect, as past years have seen a wealth of supporting talent go unrecognized due to the categories' previously strict nominee limits. I don't expect every featured race to expand to the maximum possible nominees, but I wouldn't be surprised if one or two did. That said, I'm still going to be relatively conservative in my estimates, as history has proven time and time again that Tony voters favor spring shows.

So who's currently in the best position to hear their name announced on Tony Tuesday? Read on to find out!

WARNING: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Look for Clyde Alves (left) and Jay Armstrong Johnson (right) to join fellow On the Town sailor Tony Yazbeck (center) among this year's Tony nominees.

As with so many things, I'm expecting On the Town to dominate here. I would be shocked and more than a little indignant to see Jay Armstrong Johnson or Clyde Alves excluded from the Featured Actor race, as their work is every bit as compelling as costar and almost assured Best Actor nominee Tony Yazbeck. If some horrible twist of fate leaves only enough room for one of these supremely talented gentlemen, I give the slight edge to Johnson, whose completely endearing Chip benefits from the actor's extreme physicality and a crackling chemistry with Alysha Umphress' Hildy. I also expect at least one of Side Show's featured players to make an appearance here, although a particularly strong spring season might cause Tony voters to forget the excellent work of Matthew Hydzik, Ryan Silverman, and David St. Louis. Silverman is the most likely nominee thanks to his nuanced performance as both the show's primary love interest and antagonist, although St. Louis had the musical's most distinctive male role and sang the powerful ballad "You Should Be Loved," so he cannot be counted out. Also, should Honeymoon in Vegas' Tony Danza be deemed a supporting player despite his above the title billing, he may well make an appearance among the Featured Actor nominees as well.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Two time Tony winner James Earl Jones could well find himself nominated again this year thanks to his turn as the laid back head of the Sycamore clan in You Can't Take It With You.

Despite the abundance of plays this fall, this category appears to be wide open, as many supporting players got good reviews but hardly any got great ones. I doubt the committee will pass up the opportunity to nominate the always reliable James Earl Jones for You Can't Take It With You, although they did pass over his meatier roles in Driving Miss Daisy and Cat on a Hot Tin Roof so you never know. Ian Barford is well-positioned for recognition thanks to his excellent work in the fall's most buzzed about play, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, even though most of that show's praise has focused on the staging and its sensational leading man, Alex Sharp. The well-reviewed but mostly forgotten This Is Our Youth might actually break into the Tony conversation thanks to Kieran Culkin, and I can also see a scenario where Disgraced's Josh Radnor winds up with a nomination. But ultimately I expect the bulk of the nominees in this category to come from this spring's British imports The Audience and Wolf Hall, which feature expansive casts of men playing historical figures in high-minded dramas (re: Tony bait).

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

She can cook too! Alysha Umphress sizzles in John Rando's standout On the Town, a performance which practically demands a Tony nomination and eventual win.

#HildyNeedsaTony

That pretty much sums up my feelings about this year's Best Featured Actress in a Musical Race, as the sensational Alysha Umphress essentially steals On the Town away from her multiple, extremely talented costars. There are few things on Broadway right now more joyous and entertaining than her innuendo-laden "I Can Cook Too," and her magnetic smile and heaven-sent voice make it virtually impossible to look away whenever she's on stage. Literally everyone I know who's seen the show has walked away in love with Umphress, and it would be absolutely unacceptable if she wasn't nominated.

That said, let's talk about Elizabeth Stanley! Umphress' On the Town costar is absolutely astounding as the buttoned up Claire, charting one of the show's biggest character arcs with warmth, grace, and a gorgeously full soprano. Stanley is just as deserving of a nomination as Umphress, and I sincerely hope she is remembered during the nominations process. You also have to at least consider Megan Fairchild for her breathtaking ballets in the same show (as Karine Plantadit proved in 2010, exquisite dancing can net one a Tony nomination). And while I found Jackie Hoffman's On the Town schtick to be a tad strained, there is a lot of love for the longtime scene stealer who has somehow never been in the running for Broadway's highest honor; many feel she's overdue for at least a nomination, and this could finally be the year she gets one.

Clearly, you could almost fill this category solely with On the Town actresses, although I doubt that will actually happen. I consider Umphress and Stanley the safest bets, and they will most likely be joined by Honeymoon in Vegas' Nancy Opel. Like Hoffman, I found Opel's turn to be distractingly too over the top, but many, many reviews heaped praise upon Opel and I wouldn't begrudge her a nomination. Regardless, at this point the award is Umphress' to lose, and I'm not sure my brain could even comprehend the level of brilliance that would be required to wrest it from her.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

After finally breaking through in the Tony-winning Kinky Boots, Annaleigh Ashford gives another abashedly loony performance in this fall's You Can't Take It With You. 

I fully expect at least one of the supporting actresses from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time to make an appearance in this category, although I'm torn as to whether it will be Francesca Faridany or Enid Graham. Faridany is a more prominent and consistent maternal presence throughout the play, but Graham has the kind of heartwrenching scenes that scream "Tony Award," making it possible both actresses wind up among this year's nominees. There is also a strong likelihood previous nominee Annaleigh Ashford makes another trip down the Tony red carpet for her delightfully daffy dancer in You Can't Take It With You.

While no means assured, this category likely represents box office sensation It's Only a Play's best shot at an acting nomination, with Stockard Channing's booze addled diva one of that misguided production's few highlights. Channing also appears content to stick with the production until its early June closing, which means she will be actively performing when Tony voters are making their final decisions, which is always beneficial and an opportunity very few of this fall's actresses will have. For instance, The Elephant Man's Patricia Clarkson will have to rely on costar Bradley Cooper's high profile to keep that production alive in voters' minds, and while Martha Plimpton is in the running for her work in the soon to shutter A Delicate Balance, I'm doubtful many will remember the low buzz show past its closing date.


And there you have it. Those are my extremely early thoughts on this year's major Tony races, all of course subject to change based on the strength or weakness of this spring's offerings. A lot can change between now and late April, and you can bet I will be here through all of it. Stay tuned!

Also, don't forget to check out the rest of my current Tony coverage:

Tony Awards Rule Change
Extremely Early Tony Predictions: Part I
Extremely Early Tony Predictions: Part II

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part II

Because my love of the Tony Awards cannot be contained to a mere six weeks in the spring, I am once again using the winter lull in Broadway activity to assess the Tony prospects of last fall's shows. I've already discussed my thoughts on the production categories, meaning it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress awards.

This year sees a potentially game changing new rule allowing up to seven nominees in each of the acting categories, which is highly exciting but also makes any predictions that much harder. Since a tie in the nominations process is required to activate a category expansion I doubt we'll see it occur across the board, and after last year's Best Musical controversy I think it's best to assume the committee will err towards less rather than more nominees. With a large number of productions slated to open in the next few months that will surely produce some awards buzz, I'm also going to limit my discussion here to those performers I think have made particularly strong critical impressions.

Warning: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Actor in a Musical

Tony Yazbeck is giving a helluva performance in the triumphant Broadway return of On the Town.

The currently aren't a lot of performers who qualify in this category, but a couple of them already look like sure things. Tony Yazbeck is a hard-working and well-respected triple threat who's been given the role of his career in the top notch revival of On the Town. Yazbeck knocks it out of the park with his beautifully sung and gorgeously danced Gabey, and I would be shocked if he didn't at least score a nomination. I also expect Honeymoon in Vegas' Rob McClure to be among the lucky few on April 28th, especially since his current vehicle is much more deserving of the mercurial actor's many talents than the ill-fated Chaplin (for which he was also nominated). If there weren't so many male-fronted musicals on the horizon I would be more optimistic about Michael Esper's chances for his accomplished work in The Last Ship, but that show's early closing will be a difficult obstacle to overcome. There's also a very slim chance McClure's costar Tony Danza scores a nod, although I suspect he might be demoted to the supporting actor race despite his above the title billing.

Best Actor in a Play

Recent Julliard graduate Alex Sharp (right) astounds in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, a performance made all the more impressive by the fact that it's his Broadway debut. 

This is, hands down, the most competitive acting category at the moment. If any race is going to prompt an expansion in the number of nominees, it will be this one, which features a glut of deserving talent even before the upcoming spring shows are taken into account. It would be downright criminal to deny a nomination to The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's Alex Sharp, the Julliard graduate whose Broadway debut is more layered, nuanced, and compelling than many Broadway veterans. And while Bradley Cooper's name certainly helped generate initial interest in The Elephant Man, it's his universally praised performance as the titular character that has made that revival one of the season's hottest tickets. Both Sharp and Cooper are virtual locks.

Very close behind them is Broadway favorite Hugh Jackman, although The River has proven divisive enough as a play that it might hinder his Tony chances. On the other hand, even critics who were lukewarm on the production were impressed with the Jackman's performance, with several calling it the best of his Broadway career. It would be very surprising to see Jackman's name excluded when the nominations are announced, but the category is so competitive he may wind up as one of this year's high profile snubs. A case can also be made for Jake Gyllenhaal in his well-reviewed Broadway debut, but my feeling is that several of the spring plays will have to disappoint for the trippy Constellations to have any real awards momentum come April. And while Nathan Lane is one of our most reliable talents and was easily the best thing about the disappointing It's Only a Play, I just don't know if there's space for him among this year's nominees. If there's going to be a wildcard among the lead actors, it would be Disgraced's Hari Dhillon, but in all honesty I think the category is just too crowded for him to make the cut.

Best Actress in a Musical

Brynn O'Malley (right) gets romanced by a crooning Tony Danza in the fun-filled musical romp Honeymoon in Vegas.

I want to go on record saying Brynn O'Malley needs a Tony nomination for her standout work in Honeymoon in Vegas; her performance was my favorite thing about Jason Robert Brown's highly enjoyable musical comedy. She has little chance of actually winning, especially with new roles for Tony darlings Kelli O'Hara, Kristin Chenoweth, and Chita Rivera on the horizon, but I'm really hoping the committee includes O'Malley's name among those announced on April 28th (I think they will). I also have a soft spot for Side Show's Erin Davie and Emily Padgett, perfectly matched as conjoined twins Daisy and Violet Hilton, but I fear their show will be too long gone by the time nominations are doled out. While it would be nice to see the pair win a joint nomination like their predecessors Alice Ripley and Emily Skinner did in 1998, I have a sneaking suspicion these talented ladies will be considered individually and split votes to the point neither gets nominated. Should the category expand to six or seven nominees, there's also an outside chance The Last Ship's Rachel Tucker gets nominated for her performance as the conflicted Meg Dawson, but that scenario involves one or more of the spring's actresses turning in an unexpectedly subpar performance.

Best Actress in a Play

Three time Tony winner Glenn Close returned to Broadway in the well reviewed revival of A Delicate Balance, but the curiously buzz free production may well be forgotten by the time Tony Awards are handed out.

Most of the big names in plays this fall were men, which leaves the Best Actress category with more breathing room. It also makes this race more unpredictable, as it could go any number of ways. Glenn Close's much anticipated Broadway return in A Delicate Balance was well received and certainly makes the three-time Tony winner a contender, although that production has virtually no buzz around it. As a member of Disgraced's much praised ensemble Gretchen Mol also merits consideration, and may be the one actor from the incendiary play that actually manages to score a nomination. I would also keep an eye on Constellations' Ruth Wilson, as the two-time Olivier Award winner is a big part of why that reality-spanning love story went over so well with critics. The Real Thing's Maggie Gyllenhaal might even slip in here if the category does expand, although I have to imagine at least one of the slots is reserved for Helen Mirren's Queen Elizabeth II in this spring's The Audience.


Those are my thoughts on where the lead actor and actress races currently stand; feel free to share your picks in the comments. And for more of my 2015 Tony Awards coverage, check out below:

Tony Awards Rule Change
Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part I