2016 Tony Award Predictions: Best Actor

The Tony Awards are less than a week away, so it's time to really ramp up our prediction articles here at Broadway, Etc. The remaining categories are arguably the most prestigious, with the Best Actor/Actress and production categories having the greatest effect on both individual shows and entire careers. Winning a Tony in one of the leading performance categories definitely opens up a host of career opportunities, and can turn a relative unknown into a bankable star capable of opening a big budget production on name recognition alone.

Although etiquette typically dictates "ladies first," we're actually going to start with the Best Actor candidates, as the two Best Actress categories tend to be more eagerly anticipated by the theatrical community. Which takes nothing away from the incredible achievements of this year's nominated men, who have delivered some truly stunning performances over the past 12 months. As always, I will use a combination of personal observation and gut feeling to determine the most likely winner, and if that person doesn't align with who I would personally vote for I will make sure to point it out in my analysis.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Actor in a Play

Frank Langella in Manhattan Theatre Club's production of The Father

Nominees: Gabriel Bryne, Long Day's Journey Into Night; Jeff Daniels, Blackbird; Frank Langella, The Father; Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III; Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge

The further into awards season we get, the more Frank Langella appears to have a lock on this award. The three-time Tony-winner has received virtually every Best Actor award in existence for his universally praised performance as an aging man dealing with the onset of dementia, a feat even more impressive when you consider that many critics weren't exactly enthralled with The Father as a play. 

Looking at the rest of the nominees, I don't really see any viable challenges. Tim Pigott-Smith's acclaimed turn in the title role of King Charles III seems like ages ago, as the show closed before most of the other nominated productions even opened. Jeff Daniels certainly earned his share of critical accolades for bringing a large measure of humanity to a former child molester, but the overriding feeling towards Blackbird seems to be one of respect rather than outright enjoyment. When push comes to shove, most Tony voters go with the show/performance that excites them the most, something that rarely comes from a production they don't feel passionately about. Gabriel Bryne does brilliantly subtle work as patriarch James Tyrone in Long Day's Journey Into Night, but has been largely overshadowed in people's minds by costar Jessica Lange. If anyone is going to give Langella a run for his money, it's Mark Strong for the critically beloved A View from the Bridge, but that show is probably too long gone for Strong to be truly competitive.

Will & Should Win: Frank Langella, The Father

Best Actor in a Musical

Aaron Burr, sir: Leslie Odom, Jr. in Hamilton.

Nominees: Alex Brightman, School of Rock; Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof; Zachary Levi, She Loves Me; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton; Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

This is actually one of the most competitive, unpredictable races of the night. I feel fairly confident in ruling out first-time nominee Alex Brightman, mostly due to the strength of his competition rather than any fault in the actor's by all accounts fantastic performance. And while I and many others absolutely *adored* Zachary Levi's pitch perfect work in Roundabout's fantastic She Loves Me revival, the TV star turned Tony Award-nominee also feels like an extreme long shot to win.

Many people seem to think being the creative genius behind this season's presumptive Best Musical Hamilton makes Lin-Manuel Miranda likely to win this award, but I actually think it hurts his chances at a Best Actor victory. Tony voters know he will be walking away with several writing awards Sunday night, and therefore will likely opt to spread the wealth around in this category. Also, with all due respect to Miranda, his is a very good performance competing against several extraordinary ones, and if he were to win here it would be a case of hype overriding merit.

I think this race will ultimately boil down to Leslie Odom, Jr.'s fascinating Aaron Burr versus Danny Burstein's transfixing Tevye. Burstein has been a staple of the Broadway community and the Tony Awards for the better part of a decade, with many (myself included) feeling he is long overdue for his first win after five previous nominations. Six proved to be the magic number for Kelli O'Hara, who finally won the Tony for her work in The King and I last year, and I can easily see a similar outcome here (complete with the accompanying standing ovation). Yet Leslie Odom, Jr. is delivering a star making performance in megahit Hamilton, and the momentum behind that show cannot be underestimated. Further helping Odom, Jr.'s case is the fact that Hamilton is much more universally beloved than the latest incarnation of Fiddler, which despite strong critical notices doesn't seem to inspire much passion in anyone describing it.

My gut says that Odom, Jr. just barely wins this award, but my gut also said Kristin Chenoweth would win last year. And if I'm being totally honest, I would probably vote for him too if forced to choose. Hamilton allows Odom, Jr.'s performance to be exciting in a way the somewhat staid Fiddler doesn't allow Burstein's to be, and I think that will ultimately give Odom, Jr. the edge in the night's closest race.

Will & Should Win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

Extremely Close Second: Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof

Who are you rooting for in the hotly contested Best Actor in a Musical category? Think any of the play nominees can seriously challenge Frank Langella? Let me know in the comments, and check back throughout the week for the rest of my Tony predictions. And in the meantime, catch up on my previous coverage below:

Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor 

Best Featured Actress

2012 Tony Predictions - Best Actor

Here we are at the end of the acting categories.  Before I start making Best Actor predictions, I want to remind you of my two caveats:  1) I have not necessarily seen all of the nominees; and 2) I am prediction who will win, which is not always the same as who should win.

Best Actor in a Play

Nominees:  James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman; James Earl Jones, The Best Man; Frank Langella, Man and Boy; John Lithgow, The Columnist

I don’t mean to sound disrespectful of their work, but as far as this season is concerned past winners James Earl Jones, Frank Langella, and John Lithgow are essentially also-rans in a two person Tony race.  Jones received solid reviews for his work in The Best Man, but that show is more of an ensemble piece than a star vehicle, and having a star vehicle is a virtual prerequisite to winning the Best Actor trophy.  Langella’s Man and Boy definitely qualifies as a star vehicle, but outside of his performance the production was dismissed by critics.  It also closed by mid-October and hasn’t been discussed since, leaving Langella without the necessary momentum needed to secure a Tony statuette.

John Lithgow is in a better position than either Jones or Langella, in that The Columnist is a currently-running star vehicle from a well-respected author.  Unfortunately, the deluge of late-April openings resulted in The Columnist getting lost in the shuffle, and many found the play to be serviceable but disappointing given the talent involved (Lithgow is a past Tony winner, and playwright David Auburn is a Tony and Pulitzer Prize winner).

That leaves us with James Corden and Phillip Seymour Hoffman, both of whom have a lot going in their favor.  One Man, Two Guvnors seems to be this season’s British Sensation, the imported new play that has critics practically falling over themselves to praise it.  Corden himself has received plenty of accolades his physically demanding performance, and recent Tony history shows a strong voter bias toward English-bred actors.  However, that same history also shows a bias towards big name Hollywood talent in revivals of classic plays, which perfectly describes Hoffman.  Death of a Salesman is one of the most critically and commercially successful productions of the season, something that couldn’t have been achieved without a commanding central performance.  While I haven’t personally seen Corden, I have trouble imagining him topping Hoffman’s devastating turn in Arthur Miller’s classic, and I suspect Tony voters will feel the same way.

Will and Should Win:  Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman

Best Actor in a Musical

Nominees:  Danny Burstein, Follies; Jeremy Jordan, Newsies; Steve Kazee, Once; Norm Lewis, Porgy and Bess; Rob Raines, Follies

Unlike their play counterparts, the Best Actor in a Musical nominees are much more evenly matched.  There isn’t a clear-cut front runner, and an argument could be made for any of these fine actors to win the big prize. All of that said, I think we can safely rule out both Norm Lewis and Rob Raines.  I have always felt Lewis’ abilities as an actor have been underrated, and I’m happy to see him receive his first Tony nomination for his accomplished work in Porgy and Bess.  That said, his is by no means the strongest performance of the bunch, and he’s greatly overshadowed by costar Audra McDonald, who from day one has been at the center of all that particular revival’s press coverage. 

Similarly, while Rob Raines did some excellent work in Follies, it did not reach the giddy heights of his costar and fellow nominee Danny Burstein.  Unlike last year, when Andrew Rannells and Josh Gad were so equally matched in The Book of Mormon that they effectively canceled one another out, popular opinion has clearly favored Burstein over Raines.  Anyone who wants to see a Follies win in this category will certainly vote for Burstein.

Jeremy Jordan is technically nominated for Newsies, but I think it’s safe to assume his is a blanket nomination for both that show and his work earlier this season as one of the title characters in Bonnie & Clyde.  Jordan is the hot young talent of the season, and though his work in Newsies isn’t as psychologically complex or emotionally mature as his competition, it is everything you could reasonably expect in a lighthearted show whose sole purpose is to entertain.  The road producers who usually vote for more commercially viable fare will want to ensure Newsies ends up with enough wins to sound impressive in an ad campaign, and Jordan could easily reap the benefits of their Tony love.

Steve Kazee is something of a wildcard.  On the one hand, he is giving a very moving performance in the most critically lauded new musical of the season, and the buzz around Once certainly isn’t hurting his chances.  On the other, for whatever reason the critical love of Once doesn’t quite extend into recognition for its cast (Kazee and costar Cristin Milioti were both conspicuously absent from the Drama Desk nominee list).  Because it is a new work and not a known property, I think some people are overlooking how much of the show’s success is due to its leads, instead of being wholly generated by the very strong book and score. 

I’d say the two gentlemen most likely to hear their name called on Tony night are Danny Burstein and Jeremy Jordan.  Burstein deserves the award for his revelatory and heart-breaking performance in Follies, a production the entire theatrical community went gaga over last fall and will certainly want to see recognized.  Burstein’s role is the hardest of the show’s central quartet to make interesting, making it all the more impressive that he ended up being one of the best parts of that much celebrated production.  But Jeremy Jordan has had a star-is-born season, and the Tonys love to celebrate talented newcomers as much as seasoned pros.  As much as I loved Burstein (I've been saying he needs to win this award since September), I am starting to suspect that this is Jordan's year.

Will Win:  Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
Should Win:  Danny Burstein, Follies

That’s all for the acting awards.  The only predictions I have left to make are the production categories, so look for my picks for the season’s best revivals soon!

In the meantime, here are the rest of my Tony prediction articles in case you missed them:

Best Actress

Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography