2012 Tony Predictions - Best Revival

Now that we’ve discussed the creative categories and the acting nominees, all that’s left to predict are the production awards.  These awards are arguably the most prestigious, as theatre is a collaborative medium and a production win is an acknowledgement of excellent in all aspects of a particular show.  As I prepare to predict the season’s best revivals, please keep in mind my two caveats: 1) I have not necessarily seen all of the nominated productions; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which is not necessarily the same as who should win.  Any discrepancies in the two will be discussed in the body of the article.

Best Revival of a Play

Nominees:  Death of a Salesman, The Best Man, Master Class, Wit

Master Class is an extreme long shot in this category, as it opened and closed during the summer of 2011.  Tony voters have notoriously short memories, and given the sheer number of shows that have opened since then, Master Class should consider itself lucky for having been nominated at all.  It is particularly telling that the production’s star, Tyne Daly, failed to receive a Best Actress nomination despite her much ballyhooed turn as opera diva Maria Callas in a piece that is essentially a one woman show with interruptions. 

Wit suffers from a less severe version of the same problem.  Historically, winning a Best Revival trophy has been very difficult when a show isn’t being performed nightly to remind voters how good it is, and Wit has been closed for months.  Cynthia Nixon’s Best Actress nomination proves the show is still present in people’s minds, but despite being highly regarded I don’t think the production as a whole made enough of an impression to secure a Best Revival win.

The Best Man has the distinction of being the only nominated revival that is still running, an invaluable asset in any Tony race.  Unfortunately, it also received the least encouraging reviews of the bunch.  While many critics praised the star-studded cast, they found the show itself a tad slow, indicating that for whatever reason the individual performances aren’t adding up to a satisfying whole.  A show perceived as a disappointment, whether due to unreasonably high expectations or actual shortcomings, rarely wins the big awards.

I think Death of a Salesman will easily win Best Revival tonight.  The play is an acknowledged masterpiece, and you couldn’t ask for much better material.  But rather than rest on their laurels, Mike Nichols and his entire team pushed themselves to deliver the most universally praised revival of the year.  The presence of Oscar-winner Phillip Seymour Hoffman made the show a box office bonanza, and the level of buzz surrounding the production was deafening.  Critical acclaim, a towering central performance by an A-list celebrity, and box office success amount to a Tony-winning trifecta, and I would be shocked to see anything other than Salesman win this award.

Will and Should Win:  Death of a Salesman

Best Revival of a Musical

Nominees:  Evita, Follies, Porgy and Bess, Jesus Christ Superstar

The Tonys have often been accused of being too commercially-minded, favoring box office success over artistic merit.  While there is certainly some truth to this (producers of touring houses make up a large percentage of Tony voters, and they want to be able to book Tony-winning shows that will also make them lots of money), the revival categories seem to be less prone to this phenomenon.  That is why I think despite Evita’s enormous financial success, it has very little chance of winning the big prize.  This current revival has been unfavorably compared to memories of the original 1979 production.  Leading lady Elena Roger has proven to be a divisive Eva, and I would agree with the many audience members who feel her voice simply isn’t up to the challenge of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s demanding score.  Despite a visually stunning physical production and top-notch direction by Michael Grandage, this Evita lacks spark, and has been deemed a disappointment by many of the show’s fans.

The other Lloyd Webber revival of the season, Jesus Christ Superstar, is a much stronger contender.  Though Superstar is far inferior to Evita as a piece of musical theatre writing, director Des McAnuff and his team have polished it to a high gloss.  The end result, which wisely emphasizes the pseudo-love triangle between Jesus, Judas, and Mary, is so good that it managed to win me over despite my deep dislike of Lloyd Webber in general and Superstar in particular.  It helps that McAnuff cast leads that are actually capable of handling the insane vocal demands of the score, but Superstar’s low number of overall nominations indicates it will have a tough time winning against its stiff competition.

The real contenders here are Follies and Porgy and Bess, two fantastic shows which have received first rate productions.  The Stephen Sondheim revival boasted an impeccable cast, a sumptuous physical production and excellent direction, and I truly believe that it will be talked about for years to come as a definitive version of that landmark show.  While there is much to love about Porgy, including an astounding central performance by the incomparable Audra McDonald, purists have been vocally upset about director Diane Paulus’ retooling of a four hour opera into a two-and-a-half hour musical.  Even though Porgy is still running (a major advantage for any Tony-nominated production), I expect the ire over Paulus’ judicious cuts to keep it from taking the big prize, which is as it should be.  Follies was a truly transcendent theatrical experience, and deserves to be recognized as the best revival of the season.

Will and Should Win:  Follies

The only races left to predict are the two biggest, Best Play and Best Musical.  Stay tuned for my thoughts on each, and catch up on the rest of my Tony predictions in the meantime:

Best Actor

Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

Now we arrive at the two most competitive categories of the year:  Best Actress in a Play and Best Actress in a Musical.  With so many sterling performances by Broadway’s leading ladies this year, choosing just one seems criminal, but I will do my best.  Please keep in mind my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominees (at least in the play categories); and 2) Who will win is not necessarily the same as who should win, a difference I will explain in more detail throughout the body of the article.

Best Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur; Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow; Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities; Linda Lavin, The Lyons; Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Where do I even begin?  All five of these women gave critically lauded performances in well-reviewed productions, meaning the eventual winner will be determined as much by buzz as actual merit.  While all of the nominees are Tony-worthy, I think Cynthia Nixon has the least chance of winning.  Yes, critics adored Nixon’s turn as a college professor with terminal cancer, and the same role won actress Kathleen Chalfant every acting prize she was eligible for when Wit premiered Off-Broadway 14 years ago.  But with her show now closed, Nixon doesn’t have the chance to remind Tony voters how well she stacks up against the competition.

Linda Lavin and Nina Arianda have the advantage of being in currently running plays, but they somehow haven’t amassed the same level of buzz as their competition.  Lavin famously passed on the Broadway transfers of both Follies and Other Desert Cities in order to do The Lyons, and despite her tour de force performance the show hasn’t really caught on with critics or audiences.  Nina Arianda is two for two when it comes to Tony nods (she was also nominated for her Broadway debut last year), but Venus in Fur opened so long ago that I fear she’ll be forgotten despite Venus being in the running for Best Play.  She could be a dark horse candidate, but by definition dark horses are not the most likely winners.

The real contenders are Tracie Bennett and Stockard Channing, who are both giving the type of over the top diva performances Tony voters love.  Channing finds every shade imaginable in her domineering mother character from Other Desert Cities, and for much of the season was considered the front runner for this award.  But then Tracie Bennett arrived and became the talk of the town for her performance as a drug-addled, aging Judy Garland in End of the Rainbow.  Convincingly portraying a beloved icon with such ardent fans is no small feat, and since she utterly dominates Rainbow (as opposed to the more ensemble-oriented Other Desert Cities), I think the Best Actress trophy is Bennett’s to lose.  I’ll be rooting for Arianda, who has twice proven she is an extraordinary talent and a superstar in the making, but the smart money is on Bennett.

Will Win:  Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

Should Win:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Best Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Jan Maxwell, Follies; Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess; Cristin Milioti, Once; Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde

There is no doubt in my mind Kelli O’Hara, with her versatility and crystal-clear singing voice, will eventually win herself a Tony.  But it won’t be for Nice Work If You Can Get It, an underwhelming musical that is by no means her best work.  Similarly, if Laura Osnes continues to improve the way she has since getting her big break in the last Grease revival, she will someday find herself in possession of the coveted statuette.  But with Bonnie & Clyde unfairly trounced by critics and having shuttered ages ago, Osnes is also effectively out of the running.

The remaining three contenders have each done fantastic work this season, and a convincing argument could be made for any one of them to win Best Actress.  Ultimately, I think being a first-time nominee will keep the sensational Cristin Milioti from winning, with the Tony voters reasoning that she has plenty of time left to win the award.  That is not a knock against her amazing performance in Once; I would argue she is the best thing about that incredibly strong show.

But perennial Tony favorites Audra McDonald and Jan Maxwell have both exceeded all possible expectations this year.  Jan Maxwell was a revelation in Follies, stopping the show twice with her two big numbers.  She made the acerbic Phyllis endlessly compelling, slowly stripping away character’s icy veneer to reveal the damaged soul underneath.  It was a master class in musical theatre acting, and combined with the fact that this four-time nominee has never won, that makes her the one the beat in many people’s eyes.

Meanwhile Audra McDonald, the universally beloved singing actress, has one Tony for each of Maxwell’s nominations.  It would be perfectly logically for the Tony voters to spread the wealth, especially since we all knew McDonald would be excellent in Porgy and Bess, a role she was born to play.  But it is impossible to comprehend just how amazing her Bess is without seeing it, and I suspect even her biggest fans would find themselves surprised by what a masterful portrayal it is.  McDonald conveys more with her posture and body language than most actresses can in an entire song, and some of the most riveting moments in Porgy are the dialogue-free scenes where you watch Bess’ inner struggle to overcome her self-destructive tendencies.  And when McDonald does sing, she achieves such operatic heights of vocal technique and emotion that it is truly transcendent.

I’ve been agonizing over which actress is more deserving for months, and in many ways the race is still too close to call.  But call it I must, and my gut is favoring McDonald, despite her almost unprecedented four previous wins.  Unlike Maxwell, whose show closed in January, McDonald is still performing nightly and therefore reminding the Tony voters of her nearly unmatched talent.  Her Bess is one for the ages, and probably her best work to date, an especially high compliment when those four other Tony Awards are taken into consideration.  But if ever there was a tie for Best Actress, this would be the year.

Will Win:  Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess

Should Win:  Audra McDonald AND Jan Maxwell (they are both perfection)

Check back soon for my Best Actor predictions.  Until then, catch up on my previous Tony articles:

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress
Best Score and Book
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Choreography and Direction

The time has come.  With a little over two weeks left until the Tony Awards ceremony on June 10^th, it’s time for me to get out my crystal ball and predict who will be the winners and losers on Broadway’s big night. But before I start prognosticating, let me mention a couple of caveats: 

1) I haven’t actually seen all of the nominated productions, as I ran out of time and money long before I ran out of shows to see.  But given my 82% success rate in predicting the nominees, I think it’s safe to say I have some idea what I’m talking about. 

2) These are my predictions of who will win, not who should win, which is an important distinction to make.  Like any entertainment award, a fair amount of politics comes into play when determining the winners, especially when a large number of Tony voters are producers themselves and therefore biased.  Which is why in every category, I will pick the nominee who will win and also point out the person I think should win, which is not necessarily the same individual.  Any discrepancies will be addressed in the body of the article.

Now that we’ve laid out the ground rules, let’s get started!

Best Choreography

Nominees:  Rob Ashford, Evita; Christopher Gattelli, Newsies; Steven Hoggett, Once; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It

The chances of Evita winning a Best Choreography Tony are almost zero, despite some stunning dance sequences that managed to convert this Rob Ashford naysayer into a fan.  The overall production and especially its star were simply too disappointing to too many people.  And while certainly innovative and theatrical, I don’t see Steven Hoggett’s work on Once triumphing over the “real” dancing in the other nominated shows (that show’s playbill credits him with “movement” rather than full-fledged “choreography).

Kathleen Marshall has won this award three times before, most recently for the still running Anything Goes, which automatically makes her a major contender.  In my opinion, she is one of the most consistent and creative choreographers working today, and her musical staging for Nice Work is the only thing about that particular show which isn’t imminently predictable.  But her recent win combined with the lack of a true showstopper in Nice Work’s – nothing in it comes close to the heights achieved by her “Anything Goes” or “Blow, Gabriel, Blow” – could lead voters to give someone else a moment in the limelight.

That someone would be Christopher Gattelli and his work on Newsies.  The one thing against him is the fact that while superbly executed, a lot of the choreography lacks innovation.  Most of the routines look like combinations you would find in an admittedly advanced jazz class, a problem which kept Memphis from even being nominated two years ago.  But the Tony committee will surely want to give Newsies some recognition for becoming one of the spring’s biggest success stories, and I predict two-time Tony nominee Christopher Gattelli will become Tony-winner Christopher Gattelli on June 10^th.

Will Win: Christopher Gattelli

Should Win:  Kathleen Marshall

Best Direction of a Play

Nominees:  Nicholas Hytner (One Man, Two Guvnors); Pam MacKinnon (ClybournePark); Mike Nichols (Death of a Salesman); Roger Rees and Alex Timbers (Peter and the Starcatcher)

After years of Broadway being dominated by British imports, I think the Tony voters are going to finally start rewarding Americans for their contributions to the legitimate theatre.  Which means Nicholas Hytner and his work on One Man, Two Guvnors is out.  I must also disqualify Pam MacKinnon, as I think most of the credit for that show’s success is being given to Bruce Norris’ script and its stellar acting ensemble.

Which leaves Mike Nichols and the combined talents of Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, all of whom were integral to the success of their respective shows.  Death of a Salesman is an acknowledged classic, but Nichols’ direction makes the entire production gel in a way that justifies the existence of this latest revival.  While everyone recognizes that the inventive staging has been the key to Peter and the Starcatcher’s success, I have to give the edge to Nichols.  He is an industry giant who commands an enormous amount of respect (see his seven previous Best Direction Tonys as proof), Salesman has become one of the theatrical events of the spring.  Rees and Timbers could score an upset, but I find it highly unlikely.

Will & Should Win:  Mike Nichols

Best Direction of a Musical

Nominees:  Jeff Calhoun, Newsies; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Diane Paulus, Porgy and Bess; John Tiffany, Once

If Newsies had opened in April instead of March, I would be predicting a virtual sweep for Disney’s tale of dancing newsboys, but just enough time has passed for the theatrical community to realize that for all of its merits, there is simply better work being done this year.  Direction awards tend to be higher-minded than some of the other categories, and Newsies simply isn’t up to that standard.  Similarly, Marshall’s serviceable job on Nice Work is by no means her best, and for a woman more respected as a choreographer than a director it simply isn’t enough to net her a Best Director trophy.

John Tiffany is the clear front runner here.  Once is the most nominated production of the season, and also the most artistically daring.  Without the delicately realized mood and pacing provided by Tiffany’s direction, Once would collapse under the weight of its own ambitions, instead of emerging as arguably the best new musical of the season. 

I think Diane Paulus has done sensational work on Porgy, and few directors have her gift of making the stagecraft behind the blocking seem so completely organic.  She has successfully brought the show into the 21^st century, and made a classic opera seem real and immediate in a way I would not have thought possible.  Unfortunately for Paulus, there are enough purists who cannot accept Porgy as anything other than a 4-hour opera, and while I loved her interpretation I can understand why some people would feel that way.  For a production whose Broadway prospects were once in question – thanks to that infamous letter from Mr. Sondheim – Paulus should consider her inclusion among this year’s nominees a victory in itself.  Without the burden of preconceived notions, Tiffany was free to do whatever he wished with Once, and the results are totally transfixing and definitely Tony worthy.

Will & Should Win:  John Tiffany (although Paulus is a very close second)

That’s it for now, but check back throughout the next two weeks for more of my 2012 Tony predictions!

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 3



Audra, wake up.  We have to go to the Tony Awards.  You got nominated for the gazillionth time.

Spring is upon us, and the mad dash to open before the Tony eligibility cutoff date has begun.  The past week has already seen three Broadway openings, and another eleven shows are scheduled to debut between now and the end of April.  It’s easy to fall behind during this crowded season, so if I want to discuss which shows have the best shot at those coveted Tony nominations (which of course I do), I’d better get crackin’. 

I should admit here that I have no means seen all of these shows, so a lot of these predictions are educated guesses based on industry buzz and past Tony nominating trends.  Which is actually the best way to go about it anyhow, as the shows most likely to score multiple nominations are not necessarily the same as the ones most deserving of those nominations.  If I somehow leave off your personal favorite, it doesn’t necessarily mean I thought it was bad, I just think it is unlikely to do well with the Tony voters.  So let’s pick up right where I left off several months ago, and tackle the shows in chronological order starting with:

An Evening with Patti LuPone and Mandy Patinkin

The Tony board has already announced that this concert and its two stars aren’t eligible in any of the existing award categories, although they could theoretically receive a Special Achievement Tony Award.  I find that unlikely, as the concert was good but not great, and both Patti and Mandy already have Tonys in recognition of their undeniable talent.

Bonnie and Clyde

In a purely merit-based system, Bonnie and Clyde would score several nominations despite having ended its run months ago, but closed shows have been historically handicapped when it comes to the Tonys.  Despite deserving a Best Musical nomination (it’s on par with a show like Memphis, a show which actually won that title two years ago), Bonnie and Clyde probably won’t be able to overcome all the awards politics standing between it and said nomination.  The score, easily the best one composer Frank Wildhorn has ever written, stands a much better chance of actually securing a nomination given the weak competition in the New Musical categories. 

The show’s two charismatic leads are unfortunately out of luck. Laura Osnes’ fine portrayal of Bonnie Parker doesn’t stand much of a chance in the incredibly competitive Best Actress in a Musical Character, which includes such favorites as Audra McDonald, Bernadette Peters, and Kelli O’Hara.  Rising star Jeremy Jordan almost certainly will be nominated for Best Actor, but it will be for his work in Newsies, not this.  But the ever resilient Wildhorn doesn’t seem fazed by any of this, and like a madman is readying a revival of his odious Jekyll and Hyde for another critical thrashing next season.

Stick Fly

The competition for Best Musical may be light, but the Best Play category is so overloaded with heavy hitting contenders that someone will surely get snubbed.  A play like Stick Fly, without any big name talent and only a lukewarm critical reception, doesn’t stand a chance of infiltrating the race, and it’s only real shot at Tony is a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Condola Rashad (daughter of the Tony-winning Phylicia Rashad).

On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever

Remember this show?  It opened to one of the worst critical drubbings of any show this season, closed soon thereafter, and was promptly forgotten by almost everyone.  I personally didn’t see the show, and I have a couple of friends who swear it was actually brilliant, though I find that hard to believe.  Taking an already problematic show, completely reconceptualizing it, and casting leading man Harry Connick Jr. in a role that robs him of his trademark southern boy charm doomed the show before it even started.  The only redeeming quality seems to have been a standout supporting performance by newcomer Jessie Mueller, a name I fully expect to be among the lucky nominees when they are announced on May 1^st.

Lysistrata Jones

Poor Lysistrata Jones.  It mistook encouraging reviews for its Off-Broadway run as permission to graduate to the big leagues, and suffered greatly for that presumption.  Despite a rave review from Times critic Ben Brantley (who apparently saw a different show than literally everyone else), the show closed within a month of opening.  The general consensus is that the show, riddled with poor writing and unmemorable tunes, needed a major rewrite before attempting Broadway, and won’t really be a contender for this year’s awards.  A lack of competition could see Lysistrata undeservingly crop up among the Best Book or Best Score nominees, but every other aspect of it will and should be forgotten.

The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Porgy and Bess has proven to be one of the most divisive productions of the season, thanks mostly to Diane Paulus and Suzan-Lori Parks reconceiving a classic four hour opera as a two and a half hour book musical.  I’m not familiar with the opera, although given the quality of the show’s remaining music I can understand how cutting so much of George Gershwin’s rhapsodic score would anger some people.  But as far as I’m concerned, what’s left is still an incredibly moving piece of theatre that easily earns a place among the four Best Musical Revival nominees.  There’s also some great production design on display, especially when it comes to the lights, and a technical nomination or two for this lavish Porgy certainly isn’t out of the question. 

All but guaranteed is a near-unprecedented seventh Tony nomination for star Audra McDonald, who is giving the performance of a lifetime as Bess and is universally beloved by the theatrical community.  McDonald can safely start shopping for a Tony gown now, as the only real question here is if the four-time Tony winner can triumph over the equally amazing Jan Maxwell from Follies.  As Porgy, Norm Lewis didn’t receive the critical love letters afforded McDonald, but turns in strong work and will hopefully be able to finally add “Tony nominee” to his resume after this season’s nominations.  And Phillip Boykin, whose towering work as the villainous Crown comes closest to matching McDonald’s level of excellence, should make an appearance among the Supporting Actor nominees.

I have to stop there for now, but please continue to check back over the coming weeks for more speculation on Tony-worthiness as the month marches on.

I Loves You, Porgy

Review: The Gershwins' Porgy and Bess

Audra McDonald and Norm Lewis in The Gershwins' Porgy and Bess

After more press than any other revival this season, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess makes a triumphant return to Broadway in Diane Paulus’ reconceived staging.  Although certain changes made to the classic are up for debate, there is no denying this is a true American masterpiece with a bevy of strong performances led by the truly extraordinary Audra McDonald.

For those who don’t know, Porgy and Bess is set in South Carolina’s fictional Catfish Row, an African-American community in the late 1930s.  The show traces the love story between the crippled beggar Porgy and the town’s drug-addicted outcast, Bess.  Originally an opera, this version recasts the work as a more traditional musical, with dialogue scenes replacing many of the recitative sections.  While Paulus and new bookwriter Suzan-Lori Parks have altered or added some minor plot details, purists can rest assured that this is a fairly faithful adaptation of George Gershwin’s magnum opus, and leaves all of the most famous songs, like “Summertime” and “I Got Plenty of Nothing,” intact.

One thing Paulus’ production does startlingly well is create a genuine sense of danger, something rarely achieved in musical theatre.  Even those who know the story will experience an uneasiness during the show’s more dramatic scenes, which often spiral out of control into an engrossing chaos.  This is most evident during the second act, particularly the climactic storm scene and Porgy’s final confrontation with Crown, the outcome of which drew well-earned cheers from the audience at the performance I saw.  Paulus highlights the material’s dark undertones, and barring a couple of minor hiccups successfully marries the opera’s grand scale with believable and grounded emotions.

The production design definitely helps bridge the gap between these two disparate styles.  Riccardo Hernandez’s set is suitably operatic in scale, but peppered with enough small details to keep Catfish Row feeling like a real location.  He evokes a large variety of locations with minimal set dressing, and his narrowing of the proscenium opening during key scenes intensifies the show’s drama.  ESosa’s costumes have an everyday beauty about them, and their commonplace appearance makes every character feel real.  Meanwhile, the dramatic lighting design by Christopher Akerlind emphasizes the larger than life aspects of the story, and is a perfect contrast to the more subdued costumes.

The cast is led by the incomparable Audra McDonald, making her triumphant return to Broadway after four years on ABC’s Private Practice. Words cannot express my joy at having McDonald, arguably the greatest singing actress working today, back on Broadway after this extended absence.  And while I don’t have the necessary points of comparison to call her the best Bess ever, I can certainly tell you that her searing portrayal is one of the most full-bodied performances to grace the musical stage in years.  McDonald completely inhabits Bess, conveying more with a single look than most actresses can with pages of dialogue.  One of her most memorable scenes is entirely silent, as you watch Bess struggle against the supreme temptation offered by dope-dealer Sporting Life and his “happy dust” late in Act II.  McDonald’s Bess is a woman who has made all the wrong choices and is struggling to better herself, but simply cannot overcome the vicious cycle of abuse in which she finds herself trapped.  From the moment she steps onstage until her final exit, McDonald is utterly mesmerizing, and listening to her full-voiced soprano sing Gershwin’s soaring melodies is as close to heaven as you’re likely to find in a Broadway theatre. 

While Norm Lewis’ Porgy isn’t quite on McDonald’s level, he still makes for an excellent leading man.  He has mastered the physicality of this disabled beggar, and plays Porgy with an unending optimism and quiet strength that is utterly endearing.  Lewis’ glorious baritone sounds fantastic on these classic songs, particularly his thrillingly sung rendition of “I Got Plenty O Nothing.”  His two duets with McDonald are the show’s most transcendent, filled with the deeply felt love often talked about but rarely seen in Broadway musicals.  And his performance of the show’s finale moved even this jaded critic, so earnest and pure was his love for Bess.  (It should be noted that Paulus and Parks have restored the show’s original ending after experimenting with alternate versions out of town, which prompted Stephen Sondheim’s famous critique in the NY Times.)

There is solid work from much of the supporting cast, including Joshua Henry as Jake and Nikki Renee Daniels as Clara.  Phillip Boykin makes a truly fearsome villain as Crown, coupling his commanding stage presence with a glorious baritone voice.  The only disappointment is David Alan Grier as Sporting Life.  While Grier does just fine with Life’s big number, “It Ain’t Necessarily So,” he is the only one of the principals who doesn’t seem to fully understand his character’s motivations.  In some scenes he plays a harmless goof and in others he attempts something darker and more sinister, although it is never clear to the audience what’s prompting these changes.  He repeatedly talks about life in New York City, but never really gives the indication that he intends for Bess to come with him, which makes the final scene between the pair a little tough to swallow.

Overall, this Porgy and Bess largely succeeds in its intended purpose.  It definitely makes this classic more accessible to a Broadway audience, who may not have the patience to fully appreciate Gershwin’s magnificent opera.  It is a highly entertaining drama, wonderfully sung, and is the perfect vehicle to welcome Audra McDonald back to Broadway.  Here’s hoping we don’t have to wait another four years for her to return.

Will It Recoup? Winter 2012 Edition

The past couple of months have brought with them a flurry of new shows hoping to take advantage of the influx of tourists clogging the streets of Times Square during the holidays.  And while some of these shows may do quite well for themselves, the sad fact is that most shows, even if they are brilliant, will never recoup their initial investment.  Here’s a look at the next 5 musicals opening this season, and my personal analysis of their money-making potential.

An Evening with Patti LuPone and Mandy Patinkin

The former Evita costars finally return to the Great White Way in this combination concert/vanity project.  The pair (expectedly) leans heavily on the work of Stephen Sondheim, and offers up a couple of dynamite renditions of songs from the show that made them famous.  They also perform abridged versions of Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel and South Pacific, despite both actors being far too old for the romantic leads  (LuPone in particular strains credibility as Nellie Forbrush and Julie Jordan).

Will It Recoup?  Hard to say, although my gut tells me “no.”  Working in the show’s favor is its small size, with only two performers and two musicians on the payroll.  Given their genuine love of the theatre and one another, I wouldn’t even be surprised to learn LuPone and Patinkin had agreed to relatively modest salaries for this endeavor.  But the unfortunate box office reality is that theatre stars – and make no mistake, these are two legitimate Broadway stars who make the newer generation look woefully untalented by comparison – rarely draw the same size audiences that Hollywood celebrities do.  LuPone and Patinkin’s fans definitely skew older, which will limit their box office appeal, but there is an upside to that:  older audiences tend to pay full price.

On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever

I’m just going to say it: I have no idea why this show is being revived, let alone on Broadway.  For the past decade, most musical revivals have employed some combination of a well-respected property, one or more big name stars, and a well-regarded “tryout” production, be it in the West End or at a regional theatre.  Clear Day has such a notoriously problematic book that the show is rarely performed, and its big name star (Harry Connick, Jr.) is playing way outside his comfort zone.  Director Michael Mayer has completely reconceived the show, rewriting so much of the show’s book he considers it more of a new musical than a revival.

Will It Recoup?  I’m going out on a limb and saying that not only will this musical not recoup, it will be one of the biggest flops of the season.  Star Harry Connick, Jr. won’t be able to rely on his innate charm like he did in The Pajama Game, and those who do show up specifically to see the crooner may be thrown for a loop by the show’s downbeat tone.  And the last time director Michael Mayer was this heavily involved in a show’s actual script, we got American Idiot, a misguided musical that failed to ignite the box office despite having massively popular Green Day songs for its score.  Mayer’s retooling of the show’s already bizarre plot now centers on the love triangle between a therapist (Connick, Jr.), his gay male patient, and that gay patient’s past self as a female longue singer.  It's as if Mayer was actively trying to alienate both the show’s existing fans and the matinee ladies who typically drive the success of these types of shows!  This has disaster written all over it.

Lysistrata Jones
After a successful Off-Broadway run earlier this year, Lysistrata Jones (loosely based on the Greek comedy Lysistrata) arrives on Broadway as one of the more interesting new musicals of the season.  The titular heroine, a transfer student to fictional Athens University, convinces the school’s cheerleaders to withhold sex from their basketball-playing boyfriends until the team breaks its long running losing streak.  It all sounds like an entertaining if lightweight evening of theatre, but I worry if the small scale show might be better suited to smaller scale Off-Broadway venues like the one that birthed it (the previous New York production took place in an actual gymnasium).

Will It Recoup?  I would like to say yes, because it would be nice to see new musicals continue to flourish, but my heart tells me no.  I’m just not convinced the show is strong enough to endure all the pressure that comes with being a Broadway musical.  And book writer Douglas Carter Beane remains on my shitlist after the atrocity that was the book to last season’s Sister Act.  But from a financial standpoint, the greatest problem with this show is its absolutely abysmal grosses during previews.  The show has yet to break $200,000 a week, and while preview grosses are always lower due to discounted or comped tickets intended to fill seats and spread word of mouth, I doubt the producers can even pay their bills on that amount.  The show needs some kind of turnaround, and I’m not sure the mixed to positive reviews it received will be enough to cause one.

The Gershwin’s Porgy and Bess

She’s back.  After four long years in Hollywood, Audra McDonald is back on Broadway in a true American classic – assuming Diane Paulus’ production hasn’t strayed so far from the famed opera by the brothers Gershwin that it’s unrecognizable.  Paulus and her new book writer Suzan-Lori Parks incurred the wrath of God (well, Stephen Sondheim, but in musical theatre they’re practically the same thing) when word got out they were toying with new scenes and a new ending during the show’s out of town tryout.  But the latest info says these changes were nixed in favor of a less radical reinterpretation of the piece, and no matter what, you can bet that McDonald will be sensational as Bess.

Will It Recoup?  This show is well poised for financial success.  Audra McDonald is Broadway royalty, and may well have picked up even more fans after four years on a hit TV show.  Theatre folk will turn out in droves to see McDonald play this role, and Sondheim’s nasty editorial in the Times probably garnered a huge amount of free publicity.  Ben Brantley raved about McDonald out of town, and I have a feeling Paulus and her team are smart enough to have actually used the time since then to bring the rest of the show up to that level.  And by setting the show up as a limited run, the producers have shifted to a business model that by necessity will make the show more cost effective, as they now have less time to actually make back their money.

Once

Well, you certainly can’t accuse the producers of Once of lacking faith in their show.  Before it even opened Off-Broadway, they announced a transfer for this stage adaptation of the Oscar-winning indie film.  And why not?  The show had already garnered strong buzz during previews, including lots of positive word of mouth.  While the reviews that greeted the show could have been stronger, they were certainly encouraging, and Once could end up as one of the season’s sleeper hits.

Will It Recoup?  Although I wouldn’t call Once a sure thing, it is certainly well positioned to make back its investment costs.  Strong ticket sales helped prompt the Broadway transfer in the first place, so the show definitely has an audience.  Although there won’t be much time for rewrites between its Off-Broadway closing and Broadway opening, there will be plenty of time for the performers to become more comfortable in their roles and find the nuances that could propel the show into greatness.  With the lack of strong competition among this season’s new musicals, the show may end up being the best option for a lot of theatre goers, and could prove a strong contender for Tony Awards in the spring.  And if the small cast show receives the box office bump that comes with a Best Musical win, I’m almost certain it will make back its money by the end of next year.

The Ballad of Porgy and Bess and Sondheim

Now, the fact that you are reading this blog tells me you must be at least somewhat interested in the theatre.  And unless this interest is brand-spanking new (like, in the past 3 months), you surely heard all about the not-so-nice letter Mr. Stephen Sondheim wrote criticising the creative team of the Broadway-bound revival of Porgy and Bess for their hubris in rewriting the classic in hopes of making it "more commercial."  But in case you didn't, you can read what he wrote here.

Well, in the interest of stirring the pot, the NY Times felt the need to interview director Diane Paulus and lead producer Jeffrey Richards about the matter.  You can read all about that here.

Quite frankly, the attitudes displayed by Paulus and Richards in this article disgust me, for several reasons.  First off, the refusal to mention him by name like he's freaking Lord Voldemort is just plain childish.  They are both supposedly professionals working in one of the highest profile theatre cities in the world; they need to grow up and get thicker skin.  If they honestly thought no one would take issue with them altering a recognized American classic, they are absolutely delusional.  Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, including Sondheim.

That's not to say I don't understand why there might be hard feelings.  Sondheim did trash their new production without having seen it, based on reports of changes (apparently authorized by the writers' estates) he hadn't seen in context.  Sondheim is certainly aware of the clout he has in the theatre community, and does not critique others lightly.  He made a point of not discussing still living or recently deceased lyricists in his book Finishing the Hat out of respect for them, and I'm sure Sondheim would be one of the first advocates of the artistic process and the necesscity of trying different approaches in rehearsals.  He had to have known publishing the letter would create a lot of bad press for a show which wasn't fully formed, and yet he wrote it anyway.

But the attitudes displayed by Paulus and Richards in this interview show that they have fundamentally missed the point.  Yes, Sondheim was probably upset that they were changing a work he has repeatedly cited as one of his favorites.  But more importantly (and this is where Sondheim is absolutely correct), he took issue with the fact that they were doing this tinkering without any of the original creators around to okay it.  As a writer himself, Sondheim understands the blood, sweat, and tears that goes into creating a theatrical work.  He has also shown he is not afraid of change, having given his blessing to many radical reinterpretations of his own works and also continuing to rewrite shows after their initial premieres (see the multiple versions of the show that ended up being called Wise Guys went through).

But Paulus, Richards, and new book writer Suzan-Lori Parks had decided they could improve upon an acknowledged masterpiece, which (as Sondheim mentioned in his letter) shows they all have enormous egos.  The claim that this is what Gershwin would have done had he lived longer is beyond presumptuous.  We can't know what Gershwin would have done; he isn't around to ask.  Even if there were things he wanted to change, we can't claim to know how he would have changed them.  It is not Paulus' place to make those decisions for him, even if his heirs have given her the okay to do so.  If the show is so broken to begin with, why is Paulus even wasting her time reviving it?

Clearly, Paulus has let the success of Hair go to her head.  Yes, she did alter and change aspects of that show, but she also had composer James Rado around to okay her alterations and ensure that the intent of the piece was preserved.  Unless she has managed to reanimate the dead corpses of George and Ira Gershwin, she can't have the same luxury with this latest project.

What must really make Paulus mad is the fact that somewhere along the way, she was forced to admit Sondheim was at least partially right.  A lot of the changes Sondheim took issue with are no longer a part of the show.  Paulus insists the decision to cut these elements has nothing to do with Sondheim's letter.  Assuming she's telling the truth (a big assumption), exorcising those changes from the production shows that Paulus realized they did not work and/or were contrary to the spirit of the show.

So Sondheim - 1, Paulus - 0.