2017 Tony Award Predictions: Best Revival

The 71st annual Tony Awards are this Sunday, and my annual predictions keep rolling right along. It's now time to discuss the prestigious production awards, those which honor an entire show rather than an individual part of it. Of all the award categories, a win here has the most noticeable impact on a show's box office, as well as its future prospects when it comes to potential tours and regional productions. 

As always, I will use a combination of personal opinion, critical consensus, and industry buzz to determine the most likely winner. So on to the Best Revival categories!

Best Revival of a Play

The cast of Jitney on Broadway.

Nominees: Jitney; The Little Foxes; Present Laughter; Six Degrees of Separation

Manhattan Theatre Club, one of the biggest not-for-profit players on the New York theatre scene, has a hit or miss track record when it comes to their Broadway seasons. But this year has been nothing but hits, with all three of their Broadway productions (Heisenberg, Jitney, and The Little Foxes) earning both critical acclaim and fairly healthy box office. Which is why it seems inevitable that MTC will take home the Tony for Best Play Revival this year, with the only question being which production it will win for.

The Little Foxes has all the elements that add up to Tony gold. It is currently running, features a much praised cast (several of whom are up for individual awards), and plenty of buzz thanks to the fact that stars Laura Linney and Cynthia Nixon play the two primary roles in repertory. But my gut tells me it will be MTC's other revival, the long-awaited Broadway bow of August Wilson's Jitney, that actually brings home the prize on Sunday night. Despite being the only nominee not currently running, Jitney was universally beloved by critics as serious art, and it's recent Drama Desk win only increases the production's profile and chances of winning. Six Degrees of Separation and Present Laughter will have to settle for just being nominated, as neither piece has inspired the kind of passion that makes people vote for you over other worthy options.

Will Win: Jitney

Best Revival of a Musical

Tony-nominee Kate Baldwin, Tony-nominee Bette Midler, Beanie Feldstein, and Taylor Trensch in Hello, Dolly!

Nominees: Falsettos; Hello, Dolly!; Miss Saigon

This award is currently Hello, Dolly's to lose, and not just because of the sensational performance of Bette Midler in the title role. From top to bottom, this is one of the best realized productions of the season, and arguably the best Dolly we're likely to see in our lifetime. Composer Jerry Herman reportedly turned down multiple offers to revive this Golden Age classic over the years, waiting for just the right cast and director to make the show sing. He has found it in Jerry Zaks' sumptuous staging, which honors the show's old school roots while simultaneously making it feel fresh and new again. The sets, costumes, lights, choreography, and performances all add up to pure theatrical magic that will win over even those who aren't especially enamored with Hello, Dolly! as a show (as structurally, it admittedly has some faults).

The only thing that could spoil Dolly's victory lap would be a late in the game surge for Lincoln Center's Falsettos. The toast of the town when it opened this fall, the Broadway return of William Finn's signature work at one point appeared to be the show to beat, but the long months between its early January closing and now make it difficult to envision an actual win. Working in the show's favor is its incredibly appealing quartet of leads, who have been dutifully making the press rounds throughout Tony season professing their love for the show and one another. Their charm and innate likability could help remind voters what they liked so much about the show to begin with, but overcoming Dolly is a major uphill battle. And compared to its two competitors, Miss Saigon just doesn't have the acclaim or buzz to pull off an upset.

Will and Should Win: Hello, Dolly!

Check back soon for my predictions in the all important Best Play and Musical races, and catch up on the rest of my 2017 Tony coverage below!

Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor

Best Actress

2017 Tony Award Predictions: Best Actress

The march towards the 2017 Tony Awards continues, and so do my annual predictions! As always, I will be using a combination of personal opinion, critical consensus, and industry buzz to determine the most likely winners, which don't necessarily line up with the most deserving winners. Should the two diverge, I will make sure to point that out in my analysis.

Now that we've tackled the Lead Actors, let's move on to Broadway's leading ladies!

Best Actress in a Play

Laura Linney and Darren Goldstein in Manhattan Theatre Club's production of The Little Foxes.

Nominees: Cate Blanchett, The Present; Jennifer Ehle, Oslo; Sally Field, The Glass Menagerie; Laura Linney, The Little Foxes; Laurie Metcalf, A Doll's House, Part 2

Both Cate Blanchett and Sally Field are the recipients of not one but two Academy Awards each, which will surely ease the sting of not winning the Best Actress in a Play Tony this year. Blanchett's work in The Present was phenomenal, but the play itself proved off-putting to a large segment of the theatre community; combine that with the fact it closed several months ago and Blanchett is an extreme long shot. Sally Field's work in The Glass Menagerie is much more recent, but Sam Gold's divisive, stripped down approach to the Tennessee Williams classic did her no favors, handicapping Field to the point where I can't imagine her winning.

Jennifer Ehle doesn't often perform on Broadway, but when she does she has an excellent Tony track record. Prior to Oslo, Ehle had just three Broadway credits to her name, and two Tony wins to go with them, so counting her out of the race would be foolish. But her remaining two competitors, The Little Foxes' Laura Linney and A Doll's House, Part 2's Laurie Metcalf, are both overdue for Tony glory, as despite multiple nominations neither has ever won. Linney's recent win at the Drama Desk Awards along with the higher level of buzz for Manhattan Theatre Club's starry revival give her the edge, and I expect her name to be called on Sunday night. But one cannot rule out Metcalf, especially considering the high level of love the Tony nominators showed for A Doll's House, Part 2.

Will and Should Win: Laura Linney, The Little Foxes

Best Actress in a Musical

Bette Midler in the title role of Hello, Dolly!

Nominees: Denee Benton, Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812; Christine Ebersole, War Paint; Patti LuPone, War Paint; Bette Midler, Hello, Dolly!; Eva Noblezada, Miss Saigon

Let us stop and take a moment to appreciate the embarrassment of riches that is this year's Best Actress in a Musical category. This season brought us two-time Tony-winners Patti LuPone and Christine Ebersole at the top of their respective games, and yet both seem like long shots to win the award! Either performance would be worth the price of admission to War Paint; the fact that you get both makes it true must see theatre for any musical aficionado, a thrilling night of two titans doing what they do best.  Newcomer Eva Noblezada is also sensational in Miss Saigon, a worthy successor to Lea Salonga in the role of Kim and someone I hope we will be seeing much more of in the coming years. (I am less enthralled with The Great Comet's Denee Benton, but am glad to see Broadway continuing to embrace diverse casting options.)

However, this award is destined to go to Bette Midler, whose performance in Hello, Dolly! is truly one for the record books. I have seen quite of bit of theatre in my eight years living in New York, including industry stalwarts like Audra McDonald, Kelli O'Hara, Sutton Foster, Bernadette Peters, and the aforementioned LuPone and Ebersole. And I have *never* seen a star turn quite like Midler's, who exceeds any and all expectations you might have for her to deliver a transcendent, triumphant Dolly Levi that feels every bit as definitive as Carol Channing's. There is no learning the kind of star quality Midler has - you're either born with it, or you aren't - but it is coupled with a supreme talent and precise deployment of her many skills that appears effortless. It may be 50 years since her last Broadway musical (as a replacement in the original production of Fiddler on the Roof), but it was worth the wait, and will be rightly rewarded with every Best Actress award around, including the Tony.

Will and Should Win: Bette Midler, Hello, Dolly!
Special Mention: Glenn Close in Sunset Boulevard, who is ineligible for this year's Tonys (having already won for the same role) but is giving a whole new generation the chance to see her breathtaking Norma Desmond

Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments, and keep checking back throughout the week for more Tony coverage from Broadway, Etc. You can catch up on anything you may have missed below:

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor

2017 Tony Awards Predictions: Direction and Choreography

With the Tony Awards less than 2 weeks away, it's time to really dig in and start making predictions about the people and productions who will receive Broadway's highest honor on June 11th. As always, I will be using a combination of personal opinion, critical acclaim, and industry buzz to determine who I think is most likely to win each of the major races. As these are predictions about who will win rather than who I think should win, sometimes my personal favorite will be the underdog. If so, I'll be sure to point that out in my analysis.

On with the predictions!

Best Direction of a Play

Tony nominees Laura Linney and Cynthia Nixon in The Little Foxes.

Nominees: Sam Gold, A Doll's House: Part 2; Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Jitney; Bartlett Sher, Oslo; Daniel Sullivan, The Little Foxes; Rebecca Taichman, Indecent

I'm at a bit of a disadvantage in this category, as I have shamefully not seen any of the nominated productions. That said, all of these nominees are very well regarded, which makes for a race that could go any number of ways. Personally, I think Bartlett Sher is the least likely winner, as Oslo seems to lack the momentum that some of the other big plays have. I think Rebecca Taichman may run into a similar obstacle with Indecent, a play many people greatly admire but that doesn't seem to be anyone's favorite, a major problem when Tony votes are often emotional as much as they are analytical.

A Doll's House: Part 2 is the most nominated new play of the season, which puts director Sam Gold in a very strong position. However, he is also the most recent Tony winner of the bunch, having just won in 2015 for Fun Home. I suspect most Tony voters would prefer to spread the love, and the fact Gold also helmed the highly divisive, stripped down, modern dress revival of The Glass Menagerie this spring doesn't help matters.

Ruben Santiago-Hudson has made a name for himself as one of the top interpreters of August Wilson's work, a cannon that has enjoyed renewed admiration thanks to the Oscar-nominated film version of Fences and the highly lauded Broadway premiere of Jitney, which Santiago-Hudson is nominated for. Helming the one production not currently running is generally a Tony handicap, but this might be a case of absence making the heart grow fonder. Then again, Santiago-Hudson is just as likely to be undone by Daniel Sullivan's work on the buzzy revival of The Little Foxes, the fifth Broadway production of Lillian Helman's drama which turned out far better than anyone expected it to. There's also the fact that Sullivan is one of the most respected directors in the industry, but has curiously only won the Tony once, all the way back in 2001 for Proof. Sullivan seems overdue for a second Tony win, and I think The Little Foxes is the show that will bring it to him.

Will win: Daniel Sullivan, The Little Foxes
Should win: Abstain

Best Direction of a Musical

Tony nominees Mike Faist and Ben Platt in Dear Evan Hansen.

Nominees: Christopher Ashley, Come From Away; Rachel Chavkin, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812; Michael Greif, Dear Evan Hansen; Matthew Warchus, Groundhog Day; Jerry Zaks, Hello, Dolly!

I *have* seen all the nominees for Best Direction of a Musical, and with the exception of Matthew Warchus' overly busy, unfocused take on Groundhog Day I can easily make a case for any one of them. I have long admired Michael Greif's steady directorial hand in contemporary musicals, but despite helming some of the most influential shows of the past 20 years (including Rent and Next to Normal), Greif remains Tony-less. He really feels overdue for a win, and with Dear Evan Hansen he has once again taken a show that tackles big concepts and made it feel intensely personal.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, no one can argue four-time winner Jerry Zaks is overdue for a Tony, which I suspect will cause Tony voters to lean towards one of the other contenders. But one must also consider that Zaks has given us what may well be a perfect production Hello, Dolly!; it certainly feels like a definitive rendition of the old war horse, one that honors the iconic original production while also injecting new life into a show that was in very real danger of feeling dated. And with over 20 years between now and his last Tony win (for the 1992 Guys and Dolls revival), Zaks could prove to be a dark horse contender.

But ultimately, I think Tony voters will go with Rachel Chavkin's exhilarating, immersive staging of Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812, a show many doubted would survive the move from an intimate site-specific Off-Broadway production into a more traditional Broadway house. I'm not entirely sure the move was successful, but one can't deny that Chavkin is largely responsible for the most memorable aspects of the transfer, utilizing the cavernous Imperial Theatre to great effect. I personally am more impressed with Christopher Ashley's subtly brilliant work on Come From Away, but it probably isn't showy enough to beat out Chavkin.

Will Win: Rachel Chavkin, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812
Should Win: Michael Greif, Dear Evan Hansen

Best Choreography

Corey Cott, Laura Osnes, and the cast of the Bandstand.

Nominees: Andy Blankenbuehler, Bandstand; Peter Darling and Ellen Kane, Groundhog Day; Kelly Devine, Come From Away; Denis Jones, Holiday Inn; Sam Pinkleton, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

This is something of an odd category, as only two of the five nominated productions are what I would consider dance shows. The rest are more movement based, which is by no means a knock against them but does make it harder for me (and Tony voters) to justify giving them what is clearly a dance award.

Honestly, Andy Blankenbuehler probably deserves this award the most, as his shows are always kinetic masterpieces that are propelled by dance as much as anything else. But he just won for Hamilton, and without work that in inarguably better than everyone else's I have trouble imagining voters bestowing this award on him twice in a row. The only other show that is a clear dance show is Holiday Inn, which closed so long ago I feel like most people have forgotten about it (although Denis Jones' high energy work on "Shakin' the Blues Away" is the most memorable dance sequence of the season).

For me, Sam Pinkleton's work on Great Comet is trying way too hard, and the least successful segment of the show is also the one that most heavily features Pinkleton's work, the unnecessarily long "Balaga" number. Similarly, Peter Darling and Ellen Kane's work on Groundhog Day feels forced rather than growing naturally out of the narrative. I'm not sure anyone expects the tap number that appears late in Act II, and it isn't good enough to make you forget that it doesn't really belong. Which almost makes Kelly Devine's work on Come From Away the winner by default, as her choreography at least seamlessly blends with the staging and storytelling rather than being awkwardly inserted into it.

Will Win: Kelly Devine, Come From Away
Should Win: Andy Blankebeuhler, Bandstand

Be sure to check back soon for my predictions on the first of this year's acting categories. In the meantime, share your own thoughts in the comments, and don't forget to check out my previous 2017 Tony coverage.

Nominations React
Best Book and Score