2014 Tony Predictions: Best Direction and Choreography

It's that time of year again.  With the 2014 Tony nominations announced and the awards ceremony set for Sunday, June 8th, all of Broadway is buzzing with speculation on who will win Broadway's highest honor.  Well, add my voice to the cacophony, because it's time once again for me to give my semi-educated opinion on who is most likely to win on Tony Sunday.  As in past years, I will be focusing primarily on what I call the Big 12 awards (Musical, Play, Revival, and the 8 acting categories), along with Direction, Choreography, Book, and Score. 

Through a time-honored combination of first hand experience, industry scuttlebutt, and gut feeling, I will be naming both the person or production I think most likely WILL win, along with who I think SHOULD win.  These two unfortunately do not always overlap; I am still upset with how the 2012 awards went down, particularly Best Actor in a Musical (Danny Burstein was ROBBED!) and Best Revival of a Musical (Follies was perfection).  Hopefully the voters will be a little more just this year, although without a clear front-runner in most of the categories I have a feeling we're in for at least one off-the-wall winner.  Now without further ado, let the predictions commence!

Best Direction of a Play

Stephen Fry has died of laughter, a common occurrence for audience members of Tim Carroll's all-male Twelfth Night

 

 

Nominees:  Tim Carroll, Twelfth Night; Michael Grandage, The Cripple of Inishmaan; Kenny Leon, A Raisin in the Sun; John Tiffany, The Glass Menagerie

 

 

It sure was nice of the Tony nominators to recognize Michael Grandage and Kenny Leon, but the idea that either one of them is in contention for the actual award is slightly ludicrous.  Leon's work on A Raisin in the Sun has drawn mixed reactions (once again, he has coaxed phenomenal performances out of his actresses while neglecting his central actor), and despite its 6 Tony nominations The Cripple of Inishmaan has almost no momentum behind it.  This race is firmly between the directors of last fall's critical darlings, Twelfth Night and The Glass Menagerie.  Both shows took put fresh spins on well-worn classics, although in my opinion only one of those spins actually proved illuminating to the text.  But I am in the minority when it comes to my low (extremely low) opinion of John Tiffany's work on Menagerie, and he could very well walk away with the top prize.  But considering Tiffany just won a directing Tony in 2012, and that Tim Carroll's production of Twelfth Night was the funniest, freshest production I have ever seen despite (because of?) his adherence to Shakespeare's original practices, I think Mr. Carroll is well-positioned for a much deserved win on Tony Sunday.

 

Will and Should Win:  Tim Carroll, Twelfth Night

 

Best Direction of a Musical

Being a serial killer didn't look nearly so enchanting in Sweeney Todd.

 

Nominees:  Warren Carlyle, After Midnight; Michael Mayer, Hedwig and the Angry Inch; Leigh Silverman, Violet; Darko Tresnjak, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

 

This is a much tighter race than Best Direction of a Play, with the only nominee I can't picture winning being Violet's Leigh Silverman.  Her work on the small scale musical has its charms, but the production as a whole is a tad underwhelming and the sheen of good reviews has already started to fade.  Director Warren Carlyle arguably had the most to do with his show's success, since the jazz review has no script to speak of and therefore draws all of its structure from the strength of Carlyle's direction and choreography (Carlyle is also the only director/choreographer to score dual nominations this year).  Unfortunately for Carlyle, Tony voters have a not-so-subtle bias against revues, which will probably keep him from actually winning here.

If I was handing out the Tonys, I would give this one to Michael Mayer's bravura work on Hedwig and the Angry Inch.  The show has survived the upgrade from small scale venues to a big Broadway house with its rebellious spirit intact, and that is wholly thanks to Mayer's alterations to the show's premise and his fluid staging.  Also, Neil Patrick Harris didn't just happen upon his stunning performance as the transgendered title character; that kind of magic is the clear product of an actor and director working together in full harmony.  But Darko Tresnjak is at the helm of the year's biggest Tony nominee, and thus gets to reap the benefits of the show's goodwill even though there is hardly anything special about his work on it.  Add in the fact that Mayer already has two Tonys and I'm inclined to think Tony voters will go with Broadway newcomer Tresnjak over the more seasoned Mayer.

Should Win:  Michael Mayer, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Will Win:  Darko Tresnjak, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Best Choreography

Who needs a pesky book getting in the way of all the production numbers?  Not After Midnight, that's for sure!

 

 

Nominees:  Warren Carlyle, After Midnight; Steven Hoggett and Kelly Devine, Rocky; Casey Nicholaw, Aladdin; Susan Stroman, Bullets Over Broadway

I have nothing but the utmost respect for 5-time Tony winner Susan Stroman, and honestly think her two Broadway outings this year (Big Fish and Bullets Over Broadway) were unfairly savaged by the press.  Her production numbers are always full of wit, invention, and an unbridled joy that is the hallmark of Golden Age Broadway, and her involvement will instantly make me more interested in a particular project.  All of that said, Bullets proved extremely divisive among critics and the backlash against the show will prevent her from winning this year.  And while Rocky makes some interesting use of movement, there's just not enough of it to really merit a Tony win.

As a double nominee, Warren Carlyle may be in the best position here.  A win for Carlyle would be an acknowledgement of all his work on the production (similar to how Jerry Mitchell's win last year was an acknowledgement of all of his work on Kinky Boots, not just the choreography) while also leaving Best Director open for someone else.  But the same argument could also be used in favor of Casey Nicholaw, and Best Choreography is his only chance at being acknowledged for all he did to make Aladdin a success.  Nicholaw crafted the year's most buzzed about showstopper - "Friend Like Me" routinely draws standing ovations despite the fact it occurs in the middle of the first act - but Carlyle has won several of the guild awards, making this one a true toss up.  Given this is probably After Midnight's best chance at Tony glory, I think voters will give this to Carlyle, although I would not at all be surprised if Nicholaw won instead.

Should Win:  Casey Nicholaw, Aladdin
Will Win:  Warren Carlyle, After Midnight


That concludes the first entry in my annual round of Tony predictions.  Keep checking back over the next 3 weeks as I work my way through the rest of the big categories, and we'll find out how well (or poorly) I did on June 8th.  Until then, check out the rest of my 2014 Tony coverage below:

2014 Tony Nominations React

What Sould This Year's Tony Nominees Perform?

Remember that time NPH promised us via song and dance that Broadway is "not just for gays anymore?"  He was totally lying, but damn it was entertaining.

My annual predictions for this year's Tony winners are coming soon, so don't you worry your pretty little heads.  But before I dive down that rabbit hole, I thought I'd take a few minutes to write about something a little less serious (but still important): what songs should this year's nominated musicals perform at the big ceremony??? 

After all, the Tony Awards are a national platform where the nominated productions get "free" advertising via their 5-minute performance (rumor has it the shows actually have to cover the physical cost of the performance).  This is often the first and sometimes only exposure a show will get to people who live outside of the tri-state area, so a correctly chosen number can really help drum up interest in the current Broadway production - not to mention any prospective tours.  And as one of the few permanent records of the production, the Tony performance can end up being one of the only ways future generations can have any idea what the show was actually like.

Now, there are a host of considerations that can go into picking this performance, but 9 times out of 10 the answer is simple: go with the production's strongest number.  The one people talk about on their way out of the theatre.  Because the same qualities that make that number a talking point to audience members is going to make potential audience members want to buy tickets to the show.  I personally think it is a bad idea to save the best number for people who actually see the show live.  The Lion King cast performed the show's jaw dropping opening number (an artistic pinnacle the following two-and-a-half hours never quite match) and it certainly hasn't suffered because of it.  Because despite the prevalence of film and television, most people inherently understand that seeing something live is not the same as watching a video, and will gladly pay Broadway prices to be able to say they saw that impressive-looking production from the TV in person.

That said, the numbers get very little setup, so you want to choose something that is still enjoyable without a lot of background knowledge or emotional investment.  This can be a problem for more modern shows that consist mostly of musical scenes rather than traditional songs, as evidenced by Next to Normal's showing at the 2009 Tonys (which struck me as bizarre before having seen the show, but in hindsight is pretty freaking brilliant).  In general, big production numbers read better on TV - especially now that the Tonys are back at the cavernous Radio City Music Hall - and have the added bonus of letting the entire cast perform, which is nice for the performers.  But what if your show doesn't have a number that features everyone, or the big production number excludes the lead actor you really wanted to highlight?  The answer depends on what kind of numbers you have to choose from, although if your production has a name star who's likely to sell tickets you should probably focus on them. 

Now what if the best number of your show is the finale, and you don't want to spoil the ending?  Again, this depends on the show; if it is a plot based production then you should probably opt for something else, but if it's a character-driven comedy I say go ahead and do the finale, because that worked like gangbusters for Hairspray.  And finally, don't commit what I consider the cardinal sin of Tony performances: medleys.  Your 5-minute time slot is short enough without trying to cram several song arcs in there, and it almost inevitably leads to the performance feeling rushed.  Medleys only have a chance of being successful if the songs are exceedingly well know and aren't particularly character based; I would advise against them for everything except jukebox musicals.  For reasons I will never understand Matilda decided to do a medley last year even though those songs aren't known at all (and honestly, the music is one of Matilda's weakest aspects), and it ended up making the show look much weaker than it actually is.

So with those rules in mind, what should this year's nominees perform?  Here are some of my suggestions:

A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder - The strongest and most impressive number in the show is the operatic trio "I've Decided to Marry You," and I'm hoping that's what the producers go with.  The song is an excellent example of the Gilbert and Sullivan-esque charms of the score (melodically pretty with extremely witty lyrics), has a sense of fun, and showcases 3 of the 4 leads in a situation that can be easily set up with a one sentence introduction: Monty has two love interests, and they don't know about each other.  The only reason the producers might go against this is if they really want to showcase Tony-nominee Jefferson Mays (a frontrunner to actually win), in which case I suggest having the others sit this one out and doing "Lady Hyacinth Abroad."  The number is a great showcase for Mays and the show's off-kilter humor, and because it serves as that character's introduction is pretty self-contained.

Aladdin - This show is provoking very mixed reactions among industry folks; some people love it, and some think it fails to live up to Disney's high standards (those people are clearly ignoring Tarzan and The Little Mermaid).  But the one number that everyone agrees is spectacular is "Friend Like Me," and Disney would be wise to put their best foot forward.  There are a lot of props and set pieces involved in that number which would make it difficult to recreate at Radio City, but the effort would be worth it, just like it was worth it for Pippin to bring all that circus equipment last year.  If Aladdin does "Friend Like Me," I fully believe they will keep selling out for the next few years.

Beautiful - I haven't personally seen this show, so it's difficult for me to make a recommendation.  As a jukebox musical it could attempt to get away with a medley, although I think it would be a better idea to just put Jessie Mueller front and center and let her do her thing (especially since Carole King songs tend to be more about the entire composition and not just a catchy chorus).  I'd also pick something more uplifting, because this is at heart a tourist show and tourists have proven repeatedly over the years that they just want to be entertained.  Looking at the song list, "(You Make Me Feel Like) A Natural Woman" would probably be the best choice.

After Midnight - This show would actually benefit from a medley in my opinion, and that's what they should do.  Have Fantasia sing a verse and chorus of one of her solos (maybe "Stormy Weather"), then kick things into high gear with a big production number.  Tap dancing is always impressive on the Tonys, and I would definitely recommend something that allows the band to shine as much as the performers.  But don't go crazy with the number of songs; I'd say pick 2 to 3 and knock them out of the park.

Violet - This show has a problem that is becoming more prominent as shows get better about integrating music and story; none of the songs jump out at you as a stand-alone piece.  There are a lot of loooong musical scenes that would have to be cut down (and likely loose some coherence), and the biggest production number (the gospel anthem "Raise Me Up") doesn't involve any of the Tony-nominated stars.  I think the best choice would be "All to Pieces," featuring the main trio of Sutton Foster, Joshua Henry, and Collin Donnell.  It also has the added bonus of being an uptempo song, which is always an easier sell in these types of situations.

Les Miserables - I am very afraid the Les Miz producers will decide these songs are well known and attempt a medley of power ballads, which would be a disaster.  The performers can barely find the emotional grounding to sell the songs in the context of the show; with only a brief snippet to work with I feel like the songs would just become noise.  The obvious choice is for them to do "One Day More," but as their Good Morning America performance proved that number highlights some of the more questionable casting in the show.  If the producers are smart, they will sit Tony-nominee Ramin Karimloo center stage and let him sing "Bring Him Home," the one number universally singled out by critics as a highlight.  Karimloo has the stage presence and vocal chops to fill even the massive Radio City Music Hall, and it will make the revival frankly look better than it actually is.

Hedwig and the Angry Inch - I would advise the producers to take a page out of the Patti LuPone-led Gypsy playbook and allow star Neil Patrick Harris to monologue a bit before breaking into song.  Hedwig is a freeform piece and it would be nice for Harris to be able to communicate some of that feel before belting out one of the show's rock anthems.  We know Harris has the charisma to command such a large venue, and as a likely winner it will be nice to have some record of what his whole performance encompasses.

There are several other currently running shows that aren't nominated, and five years ago that would have meant they wouldn't perform.  But the past few years the producers of the actual Tony Awards have shown willingness to let unnominated but worthy (or not) productions perform, so who knows?  Given her increased profile thanks to Frozen and the infamous Adele Dazeem incident, it would seem silly not to feature Idina Menzel and If/Then in some capacity, especially since that show has actually been one of the better sellers of this spring.  (But then again, it's clear that Menzel suffers from horrible awards-show nerves, so letting her sing would be a risk.) 

Since it didn't snag a nomination and is closing next weekend, I've given up hope that The Bridges of Madison County will be allowed to perform, but since the producers are (shockingly) mulling over a tour maybe they'll get Kelli O'Hara and Steven Pasquale to blow everyone's mind with the rapturous "One Second and a Million Miles."  I don't see the point in having Alan Cumming perform "Wilkommen" on the show again, but I wouldn't mind it if Cabaret let the divisive but undoubted box-office draw Michelle Williams perform one of Sally's big numbers ("Mein Herr" would work better on the telecast, but the title song would involve less work on the production's part).

That's my thoughts on this year's nominees.  And now, I leave you with what is probably the single greatest Tony performance of all time, Jennifer Holiday in Dreamgirls:




What songs do YOU want to see performed on the Tonys?

Insanely Early 2014 Tony Predictions: Part I

It's never too early to start discussing Tony Award contenders (at least, not for me).  And since we're in the middle of the winter no man's land between the fall and spring Broadway offerings, now is as good a time as any to look back on the first half of this season on the Great White Way.  Obviously we have a lot of shows left to open, so at this point only those who have made a major impression on the theatre-going community can be considered true Tony contenders.  As I do at the end of each theatre season, I'm going to go through all of the major Tony categories and note which productions and people I think have a real shot at recognition come nomination time. 

WARNING:  Occasional snark and a great deal of speculation to follow.

Best Musical

Smartly written and expertly cast, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder is easily the best of the fall's new musical offerings.

There were actually (surprisingly) a fair number of productions eligible for the Best Musical category over the past six months.  Unfortunately, there are also a lot more new musicals on the horizon, and this fall's shows (especially the ones that have closed) stand a good chance of being overshadowed/forgotten come Tony time.  If I were to pick the show with the highest chance of securing a Best Musical nomination, I would go with A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, which in addition to being hilarious is one of the smarter book musicals to come around in a long time.  If a second fall show sneaks into this category then the well-reviewed After Midnight has a shot, although it's status as a revue rather than a book show hurts its chances with the sometimes snobby Tony voters.

I personally enjoyed Big Fish, but it was a divisive show and that decreases its chances immensely, especially in the face of the formidable-looking spring line-up.  There's also the off chance that Baby Boomer baiting Beautiful scores a surprise nomination, but despite its rosy box office prospects I think it will ultimately be passed over by the more discerning voters.  A Night with Janis Joplin and First Date are ultimately slight entertainments unlikely to gain any serious awards traction, and if Soul Doctor gets mentioned at all on the Tony telecast it will likely be as the butt of somebody's joke.  I mean, does anyone even remember Soul Doctor happened?  And what is it going to take to get a show that lasts more than a few months into the Circle in the Square?

Best Play

As of right now, this is the weakest this category has been in years.  Most of the plays from the fall were star-driven revivals, with only A Time to Kill and The Snow Geese even eligible for this award.  Both were met with critical and audience indifference, and there are enough interesting-sounding plays scheduled for spring that I suspect both will be shut out of the Tonys.  *If* (and that's a very big "if") one of these plays were to be nominated, it would probably be Sharr White's WWI drama The Snow Geese, but I find that highly unlikely.

Best Musical Revival

In something I consider a celebration, there were no musical revivals on Broadway this fall.  Every tuner that premiered was a new show, so currently this is a wide open race.  There are also only 4 revivals scheduled for the spring, and that's assuming Roundabout's remounting of their Tony-winning Cabaret is even deemed eligible for competition (which I suspect it won't be).  So basically, everyone gets nominated!

Best Play Revival

Did anyone think that a 400-year-old Shakespeare comedy would be one of the critical and commercial smashes of the fall season?  But Mark Rylance and the all-male company have made Twelfth Night must-see, hysterical theatre.

Thanks to the repertory productions that took Broadway by storm, there are already plenty of play revivals eligible for this year's Tonys.  The double bill of Twelfth Night and Richard III in particular has been a box office and critical sensation, and I would be shocked if Twelfth Night wasn't nominated (in fact, at this moment I think it's the likely winner).  And while I personally hated it, most critics and audience members have been over the moon about this latest production of The Glass Menagerie, so I'm going to name it the second sure thing in this category.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see one of the Patrick Steward/Ian McKellan shows nominated (probably Waiting for Godot), although their slot is the most endangered should the spring revivals prove particularly strong and/or popular.  Despite fantastic reviews, the Roundabout's revivals of The Winslow Boy and Machinal lack the star power to be serious contenders, and the producers of the Daniel Craig-led Betrayal will likely have to content themselves with the millions of dollars they made from that sold out but not necessarily well-reviewed production.  Betrayal always had the air of being an event that was separate from rather than a part of the Broadway season, and the competition is simply too strong for even the mighty James Bond to conquer.


That's my take on the production races and where they stand so far.  There of course is always the chance for surprises, but history has taught us that shows which fail to make a major impression in the fall don't stand much chance at Tony love once the spring shows open (especially if the fall shows have shuttered before nominations are announced).  I am also making some of these predictions based on the assumed strength of the spring's offerings, so if that becomes a surprise in either direction (really strong or really weak overall), then things will change as well.

Check back soon for my thoughts on how the acting races are shaping up so far.