2012 Tony Predictions - Best Actor

Here we are at the end of the acting categories.  Before I start making Best Actor predictions, I want to remind you of my two caveats:  1) I have not necessarily seen all of the nominees; and 2) I am prediction who will win, which is not always the same as who should win.

Best Actor in a Play

Nominees:  James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman; James Earl Jones, The Best Man; Frank Langella, Man and Boy; John Lithgow, The Columnist

I don’t mean to sound disrespectful of their work, but as far as this season is concerned past winners James Earl Jones, Frank Langella, and John Lithgow are essentially also-rans in a two person Tony race.  Jones received solid reviews for his work in The Best Man, but that show is more of an ensemble piece than a star vehicle, and having a star vehicle is a virtual prerequisite to winning the Best Actor trophy.  Langella’s Man and Boy definitely qualifies as a star vehicle, but outside of his performance the production was dismissed by critics.  It also closed by mid-October and hasn’t been discussed since, leaving Langella without the necessary momentum needed to secure a Tony statuette.

John Lithgow is in a better position than either Jones or Langella, in that The Columnist is a currently-running star vehicle from a well-respected author.  Unfortunately, the deluge of late-April openings resulted in The Columnist getting lost in the shuffle, and many found the play to be serviceable but disappointing given the talent involved (Lithgow is a past Tony winner, and playwright David Auburn is a Tony and Pulitzer Prize winner).

That leaves us with James Corden and Phillip Seymour Hoffman, both of whom have a lot going in their favor.  One Man, Two Guvnors seems to be this season’s British Sensation, the imported new play that has critics practically falling over themselves to praise it.  Corden himself has received plenty of accolades his physically demanding performance, and recent Tony history shows a strong voter bias toward English-bred actors.  However, that same history also shows a bias towards big name Hollywood talent in revivals of classic plays, which perfectly describes Hoffman.  Death of a Salesman is one of the most critically and commercially successful productions of the season, something that couldn’t have been achieved without a commanding central performance.  While I haven’t personally seen Corden, I have trouble imagining him topping Hoffman’s devastating turn in Arthur Miller’s classic, and I suspect Tony voters will feel the same way.

Will and Should Win:  Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman

Best Actor in a Musical

Nominees:  Danny Burstein, Follies; Jeremy Jordan, Newsies; Steve Kazee, Once; Norm Lewis, Porgy and Bess; Rob Raines, Follies

Unlike their play counterparts, the Best Actor in a Musical nominees are much more evenly matched.  There isn’t a clear-cut front runner, and an argument could be made for any of these fine actors to win the big prize. All of that said, I think we can safely rule out both Norm Lewis and Rob Raines.  I have always felt Lewis’ abilities as an actor have been underrated, and I’m happy to see him receive his first Tony nomination for his accomplished work in Porgy and Bess.  That said, his is by no means the strongest performance of the bunch, and he’s greatly overshadowed by costar Audra McDonald, who from day one has been at the center of all that particular revival’s press coverage. 

Similarly, while Rob Raines did some excellent work in Follies, it did not reach the giddy heights of his costar and fellow nominee Danny Burstein.  Unlike last year, when Andrew Rannells and Josh Gad were so equally matched in The Book of Mormon that they effectively canceled one another out, popular opinion has clearly favored Burstein over Raines.  Anyone who wants to see a Follies win in this category will certainly vote for Burstein.

Jeremy Jordan is technically nominated for Newsies, but I think it’s safe to assume his is a blanket nomination for both that show and his work earlier this season as one of the title characters in Bonnie & Clyde.  Jordan is the hot young talent of the season, and though his work in Newsies isn’t as psychologically complex or emotionally mature as his competition, it is everything you could reasonably expect in a lighthearted show whose sole purpose is to entertain.  The road producers who usually vote for more commercially viable fare will want to ensure Newsies ends up with enough wins to sound impressive in an ad campaign, and Jordan could easily reap the benefits of their Tony love.

Steve Kazee is something of a wildcard.  On the one hand, he is giving a very moving performance in the most critically lauded new musical of the season, and the buzz around Once certainly isn’t hurting his chances.  On the other, for whatever reason the critical love of Once doesn’t quite extend into recognition for its cast (Kazee and costar Cristin Milioti were both conspicuously absent from the Drama Desk nominee list).  Because it is a new work and not a known property, I think some people are overlooking how much of the show’s success is due to its leads, instead of being wholly generated by the very strong book and score. 

I’d say the two gentlemen most likely to hear their name called on Tony night are Danny Burstein and Jeremy Jordan.  Burstein deserves the award for his revelatory and heart-breaking performance in Follies, a production the entire theatrical community went gaga over last fall and will certainly want to see recognized.  Burstein’s role is the hardest of the show’s central quartet to make interesting, making it all the more impressive that he ended up being one of the best parts of that much celebrated production.  But Jeremy Jordan has had a star-is-born season, and the Tonys love to celebrate talented newcomers as much as seasoned pros.  As much as I loved Burstein (I've been saying he needs to win this award since September), I am starting to suspect that this is Jordan's year.

Will Win:  Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
Should Win:  Danny Burstein, Follies

That’s all for the acting awards.  The only predictions I have left to make are the production categories, so look for my picks for the season’s best revivals soon!

In the meantime, here are the rest of my Tony prediction articles in case you missed them:

Best Actress

Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

Now we arrive at the two most competitive categories of the year:  Best Actress in a Play and Best Actress in a Musical.  With so many sterling performances by Broadway’s leading ladies this year, choosing just one seems criminal, but I will do my best.  Please keep in mind my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominees (at least in the play categories); and 2) Who will win is not necessarily the same as who should win, a difference I will explain in more detail throughout the body of the article.

Best Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur; Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow; Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities; Linda Lavin, The Lyons; Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Where do I even begin?  All five of these women gave critically lauded performances in well-reviewed productions, meaning the eventual winner will be determined as much by buzz as actual merit.  While all of the nominees are Tony-worthy, I think Cynthia Nixon has the least chance of winning.  Yes, critics adored Nixon’s turn as a college professor with terminal cancer, and the same role won actress Kathleen Chalfant every acting prize she was eligible for when Wit premiered Off-Broadway 14 years ago.  But with her show now closed, Nixon doesn’t have the chance to remind Tony voters how well she stacks up against the competition.

Linda Lavin and Nina Arianda have the advantage of being in currently running plays, but they somehow haven’t amassed the same level of buzz as their competition.  Lavin famously passed on the Broadway transfers of both Follies and Other Desert Cities in order to do The Lyons, and despite her tour de force performance the show hasn’t really caught on with critics or audiences.  Nina Arianda is two for two when it comes to Tony nods (she was also nominated for her Broadway debut last year), but Venus in Fur opened so long ago that I fear she’ll be forgotten despite Venus being in the running for Best Play.  She could be a dark horse candidate, but by definition dark horses are not the most likely winners.

The real contenders are Tracie Bennett and Stockard Channing, who are both giving the type of over the top diva performances Tony voters love.  Channing finds every shade imaginable in her domineering mother character from Other Desert Cities, and for much of the season was considered the front runner for this award.  But then Tracie Bennett arrived and became the talk of the town for her performance as a drug-addled, aging Judy Garland in End of the Rainbow.  Convincingly portraying a beloved icon with such ardent fans is no small feat, and since she utterly dominates Rainbow (as opposed to the more ensemble-oriented Other Desert Cities), I think the Best Actress trophy is Bennett’s to lose.  I’ll be rooting for Arianda, who has twice proven she is an extraordinary talent and a superstar in the making, but the smart money is on Bennett.

Will Win:  Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

Should Win:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Best Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Jan Maxwell, Follies; Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess; Cristin Milioti, Once; Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde

There is no doubt in my mind Kelli O’Hara, with her versatility and crystal-clear singing voice, will eventually win herself a Tony.  But it won’t be for Nice Work If You Can Get It, an underwhelming musical that is by no means her best work.  Similarly, if Laura Osnes continues to improve the way she has since getting her big break in the last Grease revival, she will someday find herself in possession of the coveted statuette.  But with Bonnie & Clyde unfairly trounced by critics and having shuttered ages ago, Osnes is also effectively out of the running.

The remaining three contenders have each done fantastic work this season, and a convincing argument could be made for any one of them to win Best Actress.  Ultimately, I think being a first-time nominee will keep the sensational Cristin Milioti from winning, with the Tony voters reasoning that she has plenty of time left to win the award.  That is not a knock against her amazing performance in Once; I would argue she is the best thing about that incredibly strong show.

But perennial Tony favorites Audra McDonald and Jan Maxwell have both exceeded all possible expectations this year.  Jan Maxwell was a revelation in Follies, stopping the show twice with her two big numbers.  She made the acerbic Phyllis endlessly compelling, slowly stripping away character’s icy veneer to reveal the damaged soul underneath.  It was a master class in musical theatre acting, and combined with the fact that this four-time nominee has never won, that makes her the one the beat in many people’s eyes.

Meanwhile Audra McDonald, the universally beloved singing actress, has one Tony for each of Maxwell’s nominations.  It would be perfectly logically for the Tony voters to spread the wealth, especially since we all knew McDonald would be excellent in Porgy and Bess, a role she was born to play.  But it is impossible to comprehend just how amazing her Bess is without seeing it, and I suspect even her biggest fans would find themselves surprised by what a masterful portrayal it is.  McDonald conveys more with her posture and body language than most actresses can in an entire song, and some of the most riveting moments in Porgy are the dialogue-free scenes where you watch Bess’ inner struggle to overcome her self-destructive tendencies.  And when McDonald does sing, she achieves such operatic heights of vocal technique and emotion that it is truly transcendent.

I’ve been agonizing over which actress is more deserving for months, and in many ways the race is still too close to call.  But call it I must, and my gut is favoring McDonald, despite her almost unprecedented four previous wins.  Unlike Maxwell, whose show closed in January, McDonald is still performing nightly and therefore reminding the Tony voters of her nearly unmatched talent.  Her Bess is one for the ages, and probably her best work to date, an especially high compliment when those four other Tony Awards are taken into consideration.  But if ever there was a tie for Best Actress, this would be the year.

Will Win:  Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess

Should Win:  Audra McDonald AND Jan Maxwell (they are both perfection)

Check back soon for my Best Actor predictions.  Until then, catch up on my previous Tony articles:

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress
Best Score and Book
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are getting closer every minute, and if I want to finish these prediction articles before next weekend I don’t have time for clever intros!  As you read on, please remember my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win (a distinction that will be further discussed in the body of the article).

Moving right along, here come the supporting men.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nominees:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher; Michael Cumpsty, End of the Rainbow; Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman; Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

I’m not sure how Michael Cumpsty managed to pull himself out from under the massive shadow cast by Tracie Bennett in End of the Rainbow, but good on him for securing one of the five Best Featured Actor nominations.  I hope he is proud of his accomplishment, because a nomination is where his Tony journey ends.  I suspect the same is true for Tom Edden in One Man, Two Guvnors.  While the British import received a host of nominations, I just don’t think it has enough industry buzz to actually win any of the big awards, especially with such strong competition among this season’s plays.

Jeremy Shamos plays two miserable human beings in Clybourne Park, and the fact that he can make you understand where they’re coming from is a testament to both his performance and Bruce Norris’ writing.  But the lack of nominations for his costars seems to indicate Tony voters are more impressed with the work as a whole then the individual performances, even though all are stellar.  Shamos is a long shot for the Featured Actor trophy, but he does have a shot, which is more than I’ll say for both Cumpsty and Edden.

I think this race boils down to Christian Borle versus Andrew Garfield, which raises the eternal acting debate of comedy versus drama.  Which is more difficult, and therefore more worthy of praise when executed successfully?  Tony voters have shown a proven bias toward both serious drama and Hollywood stars making strong Broadway debuts.  In Death of a Salesman, Garfield holds his own against some established stage veterans while bringing new life and immediacy to a well-known Arthur Miller role.  This same trick won Scarlett Johansson a Tony two years back, and I think Garfield has a good chance of repeating her success. 

Borle, on the other hand, has been handed a gem of a role as Peter and the Starcatcher’s scenery chewing villain Black Stache.  After years of solid performances, Stache seems to be Borle’s breakout role, and his work on NBC’s Smash has raised his profile to the point where Tony voters can pretend that in picking him, they are honoring one of the Hollywood stars they love so much.  Borle is also the well-liked Starcatcher’s best shot at an actual win, and I think we’ll be hearing him gush about what a fantastic year he’s had when they call him up to the podium on Tony night.  Poor Mr. Garfield will just have to count his upcoming Amazing Spider-Man royalties in consolation.

Will Win:  Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher

Should Win:  Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman (not because Borle is bad, but because in this case I genuinely believe what Garfield accomplished was harder)

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Nominees:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess; Michael Cerveris, Evita; David Alan Grier, Porgy and Bess; Michael McGarth, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

I was distinctly unimpressed with David Alan Grier’s performance when I saw Porgy and Bess back in January.  The actor didn’t seem to have a proper handle on his character, and the Sportin’ Life who sang “There’s a Boat That’s Leaving Soon” was vastly different than the one who proclaimed “It Ain’t Necessarily So.”  Revisiting the show last month, I’m happy to report that Grier has smoothed out a lot of inconsistencies in his characterization, but I still doubt most voters would consider the performance Tony-worthy. 

Michael Cerveris is probably the best thing about the current Evita revival, at least from an acting standpoint.  Unfortunately, the role of Juan Peron is even more underwritten than most Andrew Lloyd Webber roles, and even an actor Cerveris’ caliber can’t quite hide the fact that he’s working with pretty poor material.  Similarly, Michael McGarth deserves a better show than the misguided Nice Work.  Despite being the most reliably funny aspect of the show, I suspect a general indifference towards Nice Work will keep McGarth out of serious contention.

Phillip Boykin deserves to win this award, as his supremely menacing Crown is the sort of operatic presence Porgy and Bess demands even in this revised musical version.  Boykin is the only cast member who can hold his own vocally against Audra McDonald, and he breathes full life into what could easily become a cartoonishly evil character.  If you need any proof of how well Boykin does his job, just listen to the cheers that erupt from the audience when Norm Lewis’ Porgy finally triumphs over the brute.

But a part of me fears that Josh Young might just rain on Boykin’s parade.  Young is the only nominee in this category I haven’t personally seen, as he was out the night I saw Superstar.  In fact, he was out for a large portion of the preview period and the month immediately following.  While I know these actors are only human, missing so many shows so soon in the run does make me question someone’s Tony worthiness.  Theatre acting is about being able to turn in a stellar performance eight times a week; if you can’t keep yourself healthy, or worse yet blow your voice due to poor singing technique, then I don’t think you’re ready for theatre’s highest honor.  The fact that Young got nominated despite all his missed performances indicates he is either excellent receiving a large pity vote, or both.  I’m going to go with my heart and predict Boykin wins, but I would not be surprised if Young’s name is called on June 10^th instead.

Will & Should Win:  Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess

Catch up on my other Tony predictions below:

Featured Actress
Book & Score
Direction & Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

Now we get to the meat of the Tonys, the acting awards.  Given the sheer volume of eligible work, someone always gets snubbed when the nominations are handed out, and even then there are still several deserving candidates for each statuette.  Before reading any father, please remember my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win, especially in the acting categories.  As always, I will point out those discrepancies in the body of the article.

Since any gentleman knows that its ladies first, here are my predictions for the Best Supporting Actress categories.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Linda Emond, Death of a Salesman; Spencer Kayden, Don’t Dress for Dinner; Celia Keenan-Bolger, Peter and the Starcatcher; Judith Light, Other Desert Cities; Condola Rashad, Stick Fly

Right off the bat, I think we can count out Spencer Kayden and Condola Rashad.  Kayden is the only bright spot in a critical and commercial failure, and if it weren’t produced by the not-for-profit Roundabout Theatre Company I’m sure Don’t Dress for Dinner would have already posted a closing notice.  Rashad could be called a dark horse candidate, but while critics loved her, Stick Fly as a whole didn’t make much of an impression and closed months ago.  One of the biggest advantages a Tony nominee can have is being in a currently running show, which leaves Rashad with an uphill battle that I doubt she can win.

While I have not personally seen Peter and the Starcatcher, my understanding is that all of the actors play multiple roles, which always impresses Tony voters and is a major plus for Celia Keenan-Bolger.  Unfortunately, Peter isn’t as “serious” a work as Death of a Salesman or Other Desert Cities, which probably negates any advantage the multiple role trick gave her.  In straight plays, Tony voters tend to reward dramatic acting or its exact opposite, full-on farce; anything in-between like Peter goes underappreciated.

If we rule out Keenan-Bolger, we are left with Judith Light and Linda Emond, with the edge definitely going to the latter.  Emond is clearly the female lead in Salesman, with all of the accompanying stage time and character development, giving her more and better material to work with than her fellow nominees.  This same situation led Nikki M. James to a somewhat surprising but wholly deserved Featured Actress in a Musical win last year, and I expect a similar outcome for Emond.  And lest you think it all comes down to politics, I have seen Salesman and can assure you she is devastatingly good, easily holding her own against Phillip Seymour Hoffman and making even the play’s most famous lines sound fresh and alive.

Will & Should Win:  Linda Emond, Death of a Salesman

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Elizabeth A. Davis, Once; Jayne Houdyshell, Follies; Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Jessie Mueller, On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost the Musical

For me, this is a somewhat odd list of nominees.  It’s not that I think any of the included ladies are bad, but I don’t quite understand what some of them did to edge out other equally fine performances.  For instance, as hilarious as she was singing “Broadway Baby,” was Jayne Houdyshell really that much better than her Follies costars Elaine Page or Terri White?  And how did Elizabeth A. Davis, even with her striking good looks and beautiful singing voice, get herself nominated when the rest of the ensemble of Once went unrecognized?  I suspect I am not the only one who feels this way, and it is a sentiment that will probably prevent either of them from leaving the Beacon theatre a winning next Sunday.

Now, I hesitate to say I don’t want Da’Vine Joy Randolph to win, but…I don’t want her to win.  I haven’t seen her in Ghost, and the problem is I don’t need to in order to know exactly what her performance is like.  I’m sure she’s sassy, fires off a succession of one-liners, and sings the hell out of her big, gospel-tinged solo.  Add in one or two “serious” moments masquerading as character depth, and you have the same performance given by almost every featured black actress in the past ten years.  It’s such a cliché that someone even wrote a song about it, although in fairness to the writers of Ghost they at least had the decency to make Randolph’s character integral to the plot.  But it still isn’t the sort of thing that should be rewarded with Tony Awards, especially because such a win will only encourage musical theatre writers to continue using this stereotype rather than creating roles of substance for black women.

Judy Kaye is perfectly fine in Nice Work If You Can Get It, but I don’t think this role will net the Tony Award-winner a second statuette.  The show as a whole is too run-of-the-mill, and Kaye doesn’t do enough to rise above that.  On the other hand, Jessie Mueller did rise above her subpar show and gave one of the most praised supporting turns of the season.  Everyone who actually saw On a Clear Day agrees that Mueller’s big number was the highlight of the evening and a genuine showstopper.  Plus, Broadway loves a Cinderella story, and what could be more fairy tale-esque than a young woman playing the lead in her Broadway debut, stealing the show, and winning a Tony for it?

Will & Should Win:  Jessie Mueller, On a Clear Day You Can See Forever

That’s all for now.  Check back soon to see which Featured Actors should be practicing their acceptance speeches.  And check out the rest of my Tony predictions here:

Score &Book

Direction& Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Before I continue my 2012 Tony Award predictions, here’s a quick recap of the two caveats I elaborated on in my first article:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win (reasons for any variance in the two will be elaborated in the article).

Since Tony night is fast approaching, let’s not waste any more time!

Best Book of a Musical

Nominees:  Douglas Carter Beane, Lysistrata Jones; Harvey Fierstein, Newsies; Joe DiPietro, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Enda Walsh, Once

I died a little inside when I read that Douglas Carter Beane was nominated for his atrocious book to Lysistrata Jones.  Beane managed to completely remove the anti-war allegory that’s allowed the Greek Lysistrata to withstand the test of time, and replaced it with poorly developed characters and painfully unfunny one-liners.  He doesn’t deserve to be nominated, and rest assured there is no way he can possibly win (the fact that Lysistrata closed months ago is the final nail in Beane’s coffin).

I would put Harvey Fierstein’s libretto for Newsies and Joe DiPietro’s book for Nice Work on the same level artistically.  Both are perfectly serviceable scripts, free of any glaring plot holes or structural weaknesses.  Both segue nicely into their respective musical numbers while simultaneously crafting characters with the illusion of depth, even if many of them lack actual substance.  Unfortunately, neither libretto takes the extra steps necessary to qualify as Tony-worthy.  The book scenes in both shows primarily serve as filler in between the musical numbers, rather than adding much of substance to their respective shows.

By contrast, Enda Walsh’s book for Once approaches the depth and quality of a play script.  Despite some very long scenes (at least by musical theatre standards), the Once libretto remains engrossing and provides information that greatly enhances the already strong emotional impact of the show’s songs.  Once relies on such a delicately established mood that it would not work without the Walsh’s first rate contributions, and he will deservedly take home the Tony for his efforts on June 10^th.

Will & Should Win:  Enda Walsh, Once

Best Original Score

Nominees:  Frank Wildhorn & Don Black, Bonnie and Clyde; Alan Menken & Jack Feldman, Newsies; Grant Olding, One Man, Two Guvnors; Wayne Barker & Rick Elice, Peter and the Starcatcher

I could (and probably should) write an entire blog entry about the sorry state of musical theatre composition.  The fact that two of the four Best Original Score nominations went to plays instead of musicals proves how little good work is being done in this area.  Unfortunately, the year’s strongest score – the haunting and beautiful Once – was written for another medium and is therefore ineligible.  But while the Tony committee has shown a willingness to nominate play scores in the past few years, I don’t think they are prepared to actually give the prize to a non-musical, which rules out both One Man, Two Guvnors and Peter and the Starcatcher. 

Which leaves Bonnie & Clyde and Newsies, with their oft-nominated but so far unrewarded composers.  Now, if you had told me a year ago that Frank “Modulation” Wildhorn would be the most deserving of a Best Score Tony, I would have laughed in your face.  But this time round Wildhorn wrote a genuinely theatrical score, with many of the songs containing actual narrative action rather than an endless series of ever-higher money notes.  He has successfully fused the bluegrass and folk idioms with show music, and many of the show’s ballads are genuinely beautiful as opposed to his usual manufactured bombast.  All of this, combined with weak competition, makes Bonnie & Clyde legitimately the strongest work nominated this year.

Unfortunately for Wildhorn, there’s clearly no overcoming the tarnished reputation his past work has earned him.  Having his name on the marquee caused Bonnie & Clyde to be unfairly trashed by critics, and the show closed within a month of opening.  Meanwhile Newsies was embraced by critics and has been playing to near sell-out business, and its composer Alan Menken has managed to maintain a high reputation among the theatre elite despite some questionable shows of his own.  For all of its repetitiveness and overly-earnest emotion, Newsies does feature several catchy numbers and one genuinely inventive solo for its leading lady.  And since Menken has never won the big award, the committee will likely give him a Tony statuette that will in name be for this show, but will really be for his body of work.

Will Win:  Alan Menken, Newsies

Should Win:  Frank Wildhorn, Bonnie & Clyde (yes, I really just typed that)

That’s it for now.  Join me next time as I begin dissecting which performers have done award-worthy work this past season.

2012 Tony Predictions: Choreography and Direction

The time has come.  With a little over two weeks left until the Tony Awards ceremony on June 10^th, it’s time for me to get out my crystal ball and predict who will be the winners and losers on Broadway’s big night. But before I start prognosticating, let me mention a couple of caveats: 

1) I haven’t actually seen all of the nominated productions, as I ran out of time and money long before I ran out of shows to see.  But given my 82% success rate in predicting the nominees, I think it’s safe to say I have some idea what I’m talking about. 

2) These are my predictions of who will win, not who should win, which is an important distinction to make.  Like any entertainment award, a fair amount of politics comes into play when determining the winners, especially when a large number of Tony voters are producers themselves and therefore biased.  Which is why in every category, I will pick the nominee who will win and also point out the person I think should win, which is not necessarily the same individual.  Any discrepancies will be addressed in the body of the article.

Now that we’ve laid out the ground rules, let’s get started!

Best Choreography

Nominees:  Rob Ashford, Evita; Christopher Gattelli, Newsies; Steven Hoggett, Once; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It

The chances of Evita winning a Best Choreography Tony are almost zero, despite some stunning dance sequences that managed to convert this Rob Ashford naysayer into a fan.  The overall production and especially its star were simply too disappointing to too many people.  And while certainly innovative and theatrical, I don’t see Steven Hoggett’s work on Once triumphing over the “real” dancing in the other nominated shows (that show’s playbill credits him with “movement” rather than full-fledged “choreography).

Kathleen Marshall has won this award three times before, most recently for the still running Anything Goes, which automatically makes her a major contender.  In my opinion, she is one of the most consistent and creative choreographers working today, and her musical staging for Nice Work is the only thing about that particular show which isn’t imminently predictable.  But her recent win combined with the lack of a true showstopper in Nice Work’s – nothing in it comes close to the heights achieved by her “Anything Goes” or “Blow, Gabriel, Blow” – could lead voters to give someone else a moment in the limelight.

That someone would be Christopher Gattelli and his work on Newsies.  The one thing against him is the fact that while superbly executed, a lot of the choreography lacks innovation.  Most of the routines look like combinations you would find in an admittedly advanced jazz class, a problem which kept Memphis from even being nominated two years ago.  But the Tony committee will surely want to give Newsies some recognition for becoming one of the spring’s biggest success stories, and I predict two-time Tony nominee Christopher Gattelli will become Tony-winner Christopher Gattelli on June 10^th.

Will Win: Christopher Gattelli

Should Win:  Kathleen Marshall

Best Direction of a Play

Nominees:  Nicholas Hytner (One Man, Two Guvnors); Pam MacKinnon (ClybournePark); Mike Nichols (Death of a Salesman); Roger Rees and Alex Timbers (Peter and the Starcatcher)

After years of Broadway being dominated by British imports, I think the Tony voters are going to finally start rewarding Americans for their contributions to the legitimate theatre.  Which means Nicholas Hytner and his work on One Man, Two Guvnors is out.  I must also disqualify Pam MacKinnon, as I think most of the credit for that show’s success is being given to Bruce Norris’ script and its stellar acting ensemble.

Which leaves Mike Nichols and the combined talents of Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, all of whom were integral to the success of their respective shows.  Death of a Salesman is an acknowledged classic, but Nichols’ direction makes the entire production gel in a way that justifies the existence of this latest revival.  While everyone recognizes that the inventive staging has been the key to Peter and the Starcatcher’s success, I have to give the edge to Nichols.  He is an industry giant who commands an enormous amount of respect (see his seven previous Best Direction Tonys as proof), Salesman has become one of the theatrical events of the spring.  Rees and Timbers could score an upset, but I find it highly unlikely.

Will & Should Win:  Mike Nichols

Best Direction of a Musical

Nominees:  Jeff Calhoun, Newsies; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Diane Paulus, Porgy and Bess; John Tiffany, Once

If Newsies had opened in April instead of March, I would be predicting a virtual sweep for Disney’s tale of dancing newsboys, but just enough time has passed for the theatrical community to realize that for all of its merits, there is simply better work being done this year.  Direction awards tend to be higher-minded than some of the other categories, and Newsies simply isn’t up to that standard.  Similarly, Marshall’s serviceable job on Nice Work is by no means her best, and for a woman more respected as a choreographer than a director it simply isn’t enough to net her a Best Director trophy.

John Tiffany is the clear front runner here.  Once is the most nominated production of the season, and also the most artistically daring.  Without the delicately realized mood and pacing provided by Tiffany’s direction, Once would collapse under the weight of its own ambitions, instead of emerging as arguably the best new musical of the season. 

I think Diane Paulus has done sensational work on Porgy, and few directors have her gift of making the stagecraft behind the blocking seem so completely organic.  She has successfully brought the show into the 21^st century, and made a classic opera seem real and immediate in a way I would not have thought possible.  Unfortunately for Paulus, there are enough purists who cannot accept Porgy as anything other than a 4-hour opera, and while I loved her interpretation I can understand why some people would feel that way.  For a production whose Broadway prospects were once in question – thanks to that infamous letter from Mr. Sondheim – Paulus should consider her inclusion among this year’s nominees a victory in itself.  Without the burden of preconceived notions, Tiffany was free to do whatever he wished with Once, and the results are totally transfixing and definitely Tony worthy.

Will & Should Win:  John Tiffany (although Paulus is a very close second)

That’s it for now, but check back throughout the next two weeks for more of my 2012 Tony predictions!

"Falling Slowly" Under Your Spell

Review: Once

The utterly entrancing Steve Kazee and Cristin Milioti, stars of the new musical Once

It is exceedingly difficult to accurately describe Once, the new musical based on the 2006 indie film of the same name.  How does one describe something so groundbreaking and original that any analogy or point of reference seems woefully inadequate for the task?  That indescribability proves to be the strongest of Once’s many assets; the show is a wholly new creation that forces you to reconsider exactly what a Broadway musical can be, and it is easily the strongest new work of the current season.

The plot concerns the budding romance between Guy and Girl (the two leads are never named, lending universality to their very complicated and specific emotions).  Guy, an aspiring musician who works in his father’s vacuum repair shop, has all but given up on life after a particularly hard breakup with his unseen girlfriend.  One day Girl whisks into his life, and after hearing him sing insists he pursue his music career so his songs can be heard by a wider audience.  Over the course of one week, the pair struggles to raise the money to record Guy’s music, and finds their bond growing deeper and more complex by the hour.

In most shows, this situation would end in one of two predictable ways.  Either Guy and Girl would get together and live happily ever after, or one of them would end up dead in a tragic tale of unrequited live.  Once foregoes both of these options for something more subdued and ultimately more moving, portraying the reality of such situations in a way few musicals dare.  The deceptively simple plot gives way to a startling emotional complexity, and will stick with you for days after the final curtain falls.

This depth is conveyed by all aspects of the production, and is especially aided by the haunting folk-influenced score by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova (who won the Best Song Oscar for their work on the film version).  Sparse instrumental interludes give way to lush, sweeping choruses overflowing with emotion.  The lilting ballads are mesmerizing, delivered as they are with such sensitivity and musicianship by the stellar cast, all of whom play their own instruments.  Once demonstrates how music is truly the universal language, for even when the lyrics become muffled or hard to decipher (an occurrence which happens a tad too much for this reviewer’s taste) the emotional intent of each song is abundantly clear.

The cast is uniformly excellent, offering up the best dramatic acting seen in a Broadway musical in years.  As Guy, Steve Kazee brilliantly conveys all of the pent up sorrow and anguish that his character can only express through music.  In a lesser actor’s hands, Guy’s self-pity and passiveness would result in an unappealing, unsympathetic lead character, and Once would be dead before it even begins.  But Kazee makes the quiet and reserved nature of his character utterly charming, and completely bares his soul with each of his self-accompanied solos.

In her musical debut, Cristin Milioti is a revelation.  From her first entrance, Milioti’s Girl is one of the most fully realized characters in recent musical memory.  Everything about her demeanor tells you exactly what kind of woman Girl is, and the character feels real before she utters a single syllable.  Direct and straightforward to a fault – “I’m always serious. I’m Czech,” she explains – Milioti gives us tantalizing glimpses of the emotional turmoil going on beneath the surface, making her endlessly fascinating to watch.  Between her soft-spoken nature and Czech accent, Milioti can be difficult to understand at times, but rather than becoming frustrating this only adds to her exotic allure.  Even more than costar Kazee, Milioti pours everything she has into her two big solos, and the image of her crying over the piano during the Act II ballad “The Hill” is a moment that will be permanently etched into your memory.  In a season filled with sensational female performances, Milioti ranks among the very best.

Director John Tiffany must be commended for sustaining the delicate mood that makes Once unlike any other musical currently on Broadway.  Although a couple of the supporting characters veer dangerously close to caricature, Tiffany ultimately succeeds in reigning in their broader impulses and keeps the show firmly grounded in naturalism.  Playwright Enda Walsh has crafted a stellar libretto that reads more like a play than a musical, and yet still effortlessly makes room for the show’s many musical numbers.  And the choreographed movement by Steven Hoggett, including some thrillingly theatrical transitions involving both the cast and their instruments, adds another layer of bold invention to a piece overflowing with originality.

For those with (often justified) complaints that modern day Broadway lacks innovation, Once is the answer to all of your prayers.  With its fantastic score, beautifully realized performances, and sensitive but assured direction, Once is easily the best new musical of the season, and deserves to be seen by anyone who values art in their entertainment.  Those who see the show should come prepared to fall under its utterly entrancing spell.