2015 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

The Tony Awards take place this Sunday, and about the only talk you'll hear on the Great White Way is speculation on who will win the coveted spinning medallions. I've already explored the writers, directors, and actors I suspect will win Broadway's highest honor, so now it's finally time to tackle the production awards. Whereas the other Tony categories honor individual excellence, the four production awards recognize the collective efforts of the many artists responsible for producing any piece of theatre. These awards are also the most likely to affect a show's box office fortunes, which make them the most desired honors in the entire theatrical community.

As always, I will be predicting who will win, which does not necessarily align with who I would like to win. Should there be a major discrepancy, I will be certain to point it out in my analysis. At the same time, it bears repeating that all of the shows nominated in these categories have plenty of artistic merit, so even if I personally think a different show should win it doesn't mean the likely winner is undeserving. Now read on to find out which of this season's revivals are most likely to strike Tony gold.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Revival of a Play

The Tony nominated cast of The Elephant Man.

 

Nominees: The Elephant Man; Skylight; This is Our Youth; You Can't Take It With You

This is the unusual category where the majority of nominees are long closed, giving the sole currently running production (West End import Skylight) a tangible advantage over its competitors. In fact, each production's likelihood of winning seems to correlate with how much time has passed since its closing date. The fact that This Is Our Youth was nominated at all remains one of the bigger surprises of this Tony season, as the production struggled at the box office throughout its limited run and closed back in early January. I would be shocked should it actually win, just as I would be similarly surprised to see the well-liked You Can't Take It With You triumph over the weightier dramas in this category (Tony voters tend to be biased against comedies, even ones that have won the Pulitzer Prize).

Although Skylight scored very strong notices, I actually think the Bradley Cooper led Elephant Man will be triumphant this year. That starry revival exceeded all expectations both artistically and at the box office; it was the talk of the town during its limited engagement, and the fact all three principal actors are nominated for Tony Awards shows what a strong impression they and the production made. The feeling towards Skylight seems respectful rather than passionate, which I think will ultimately be the British import's downfall. Then again, absolutely no one expected A Raisin in the Sun to triumph in this category last year, which makes me wary of another surprise this year. I am still officially predicting The Elephant Man, but it only has a slight advantage against its currently running competitor.

Will & Should Win: The Elephant Man

 

Best Revival of a Musical
 

I know I don't predict technical awards on this blog, but The King and I is totally winning Best Costumes. Look at that DRESS!

 

Nominees: The King and I; On the Town; On the Twentieth Century

This category is the most cut and dry of the production categories. Arguments can be made for the exuberant On the Town and better than expected On the Twentieth Century, but neither production can compete with the unadulterated brilliance of Lincoln Center's The King and I. Bartlett Sher's masterful revival of the oft-produced Rodgers and Hammerstein classic has been deemed a definitive production by many in the industry, and is my personal favorite production of this Broadway season (new, revival, musical, or otherwise). Expertly acted, superbly sung, and visually stunning, it calls to mind everything wonderful about the traditional Broadway musical without ever feeling dated or tired.

Should The King and I fail to win this category I would strongly disagree, but could at least accept a victory for the incredibly entertaining On the Town. That production does everything a revival should; it takes a long forgotten show and makes the piece feel exciting, relevant, and fresh again, resulting in one of the most unceasingly entertaining productions of the season. On the Twentieth Century would be a harder choice to defend, as despite a top notch cast the script is starting to show its age. In fact, without leading lady Kristin Chenoweth and the oafish Andy Karl I think the show would be forgotten almost the moment it ends. But these are all a moot points, as Lincoln Center has been the front runner for this award since The King and I was even rumored. The fact the resulting production meets and in my opinion surpasses their much beloved South Pacific from several seasons back just seals the deal.

Will & Should Win: The King and I

Check back this Friday for my take on the two most important races of the season, Best Play and Best Musical. In the meantime, feel free to catch up on the rest of my Tony coverage below!

Nominations React

Best Book & Score

Best Direction & Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor

Best Actress

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

It's that time of year again! Now that spring has finally sprung and all of this season's Broadway productions have officially opened, it's time to discuss one of my favorite entertainment events of the year: the Tony Awards! They're Broadway's highest honor, designed to celebrate the industry's best and brightest stars and productions, and a strong showing at the Tonys can help turn an unsuccessful show into a hit (see last year's Best Musical winner A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, which never would have recouped without the box office boost its win provided).

This year's nominations will be announced April 28th, and every day between now and then I will be posting my predictions and analysis of the likely nominees in each of the Big 12 categories (New Play/Musical, Play/Musical Revival, and the 8 acting awards). I've had a pretty good track record in the past, but each year things become more complicated thanks to the ever-changing rules that have seen the maximum number of potential nominees expand. This year, the Best Play, Best Musical, and Best Play Revival categories all have enough eligible productions to prompt an expansion to five nominees. But as last year's four horse Best Musical race proved, just because the committee can nomination five shows doesn't mean it will, which makes predicting how many slots there are to fill just as hard as whittling down the eligible productions.

I've put a lot of thought into this and am fairly confident in my choices, but every year the nominations committee throws the Broadway community at least one curve ball. In acknowledgement of this, I will be listing a Wildcard nominee in each category, representing the production I think has the best chance of sneaking past my official predictions and into Tony Award contention. So without further ado, here are the productions I think will be competing for those much coveted Antoinette Perry Awards!


Best Musical

Brad Oscar and Brian d'Arcy James provide two of the funniest performances in the glitzy new musical comedy Something Rotten!

This may be the trickiest of the production categories to predict, as while there are enough eligible productions to allow five Best Musical nominees, last year's awards showed that is by no means guaranteed. In an odd bit of Tony math, I actually think we'll see the maximum five nominations despite this year's crop of musicals being (in my opinion) less exciting and worthy of that honor. There has yet to be a breakout critical and commercial hit among this year's new musicals, which probably means more variety in the Tony committee's number one picks and therefore a greater chance of the kind of close vote that would provoke a five competitor category.

While there are not sure things, I think Fun Home and Something Rotten! are this year's contenders. Both are well reviewed and recently opened musicals, so the buzz on both is strong for very different reasons. Rotten lovingly mocks Broadway in the same way as past Best Musical winners The Producers and Spamalot, and both the cast and creative team is filled with well-loved industry professionals who have been doing this for years. Fun Home is the rare musical that has made the shortlist for the Pulitzer Prize (even if it didn't win), addressing such important issues as personal identity and parent/child relationships in a way that is both funny and thought provoking. If either show was left off the list on Tony Tuesday, I would be very surprised.

From there, things are a lot less certain. Finding Neverland seems to be the commercial success of the season, and Tony voters clearly love director Diane Paulus, with all three of her previous Broadway credits winning their production categories. That said, it was utterly trashed by critics, to the point where its box office prowess might not matter. The top-notch Honeymoon in Vegas deserves a spot on this list, but since it recently closed after a very rough Broadway run I feel its perceived status as a flop will hinder its chances. The same logic also doesn't bode well for Sting's The Last Ship, although I can also envision a scenario where enough time has passed since its January closing for some nostalgia to set in and see it squeak into the category. An American in Paris scored surprisingly strong reviews, enough to put it into serious contention, and one can't rule out The Visit, as it is the last time Tony voters will ever be able to nominate a new work by theatrical legends Kander & Ebb. And after a surprisingly strong showing in the other industry Best Musical races, ensemble comedy It Shoulda Been You stands a legitimate shot at cracking into this close race.

Nominees
An American in Paris
Fun Home
It Shoulda Been You
Something Rotten!
The Visit

Wildcard
Honeymoon in Vegas


Best Play

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time proves you don't need a realistic set to produce some mind-blowing images.

This category could be easily subtitled "The British Import We Liked the Best." The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time and Wolf Hall are virtual locks, given their ecstatic reception by the New York press. I would also consider it hugely surprising if The Audience wasn't nominated, as it is one of the most successful plays of the season and everybody loves Helen Mirren (even if critics weren't entirely sold on Peter Morgan's script).

Which doesn't leave a whole lot of room for competitors, even assuming a five nominee playing field. The homegrown show with the best chance of cracking into the Best Play race is Hand to God, whose Cinderella story from Off-Off-Broadway play to Main Stem critical hit is catnip to Tony voters who will surely overlook the show's somewhat troubling gender politics. In fact, there is a genuine chance that 2013 Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced doesn't even get nominated, as interest in that production has cooled considerably since its critically acclaimed October premiere. Constellations (another British import) scored surprisingly strong reviews and is much fresher in voters minds, making it a serious contender for the fifth nomination slot. And one can't completely rule out box office smash Fish in the Dark, although Tony voters have recently proven far less influenced by box office success than they used to be; since Fish received kind but not glowing reviews, I don't think it really has a chance of spoiling anyone's fun, but stranger things have happened.

Nominees
The Audience
Constellations
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Hand to God
Wolf Hall Parts I & II

Wildcard
Disgraced


Best Musical Revival

I could have danced all night with this Broadway power couple, both giving exhilarating performances in Bartlett Sher's jaw-droppingly gorgeous staging of The King and I.

With only five eligible productions, Best Musical Revival is the one category we can guarantee won't have five nominees as the Tony rules won't allow it. The committee could nominate as few as three productions, as they did last year, although I suspect they will go with the traditional four as I think last year's reduced field was done primarily to keep all the eligible productions from being nominated (although if we're being honest, Cabaret deserved a nomination last year much more than Les Miserables).

Prediction this category is relatively simple. On the Town and The King and I are both transcendent productions and my two favorite musicals, new or revived, of the season. Both are guaranteed nominations, and at this moment I am 100% certain the Best Revival award will go to one of them. Roundabout Theatre Company took a gamble on producing the somewhat dated On the Twentieth Century (it's one of the most complex musical productions the non-profit has ever done), something that largely paid off thanks to the irrepressible dynamo that is leading lady Kristin Chenoweth. Between Chenoweth's operatic antics and the show's tap dancing porters, Twentieth Century's nomination prospects are looking very strong.

The only real question here is if the fourth slot will go to Side Show, Gigi, or neither. Side Show got better reviews, although it also struggled at the box office and was kicked out of the St. James Theatre in early January to make room for the more profitable sounding Something Rotten! Gigi is currently running (always a plus with Tony voters) and the presence of former Disney Channel star Vanessa Hudgens has thus far proven to be a fairly reliable box office draw, which a few years ago would have had me predicting it for the final nomination slot. Given recent Tony trends, however, I'm giving the edge to Side Show, whose fans are much more passionate than Gigi's and will likely see a Best Revival nod as one way to make up for the show's short Broadway run.

Nominees
The King & I
On the Town
On the Twentieth Century
Side Show

Wildcard
Gigi


Best Play Revival

Yes, there were people in The Elephant Man not named Bradley Cooper (but for better or worse, Cooper is the one who sold the tickets).

Normally a hyper-competitive category, this year's Best Play Revival race is somewhat weaker than normal. Many of the nine eligible productions got respectful reviews, but few provoked much enthusiasm from the press, which makes me suspect that this category may stay at four nominees despite enough revivals to allow for a category expansion. The one sure bet (and likely winner) is the Bradley Cooper led The Elephant Man, which was the talk of the town this past winter and probably the strongest reviewed production in the bunch. Following close behind is the just opened revival of David Hare's Skylight, imported from London's West End with its leads intact.

The first three revivals of the season (This is Our Youth, Love Letters, and You Can't Take It With You) all got very strong reviews, but have also been closed for a very long time. I honestly had forgotten about both Youth and Love Letters until I was looking at a list of eligible productions, and I doubt many others will remember them without prompting, basically killing any chance they have at a nomination. I do expect You Can't Take It With You to make the cut, which leaves one more slot for Tony nominators to fill. It's Only a Play was one of the fall's hot tickets thanks to its starry cast, something that has allowed the production to hang on despite generally poor reviews. Interest has cooled considerably since then, but the fact it's still running and has recently welcomed back headliner Nathan Lane means it has to be considered. I personally don't think it will edge out both The Heidi Chronicles and The Real Thing for the fourth nomination slot - the latter two plays are much better respected than Terrence McNally's showbiz comedy - but you never know.

Nominees
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
Skylight
You Can't Take It With You

Wildcard
The Real Thing


Those are my predictions in the production categories. Check back tomorrow for my Best Actor predictions, and don't be afraid to share your thoughts in the comments section!

Previous Coverage
Tony Rule Change

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part III

Although they seem so very far away, the 2015 Tony Awards will be here before you know it. The current winter lull on Broadway is the perfect time to take stock of which fall productions and performers have made a particularly strong impression on critics and Tony voters, thereby keeping them in the conversation when the time comes to hand out Tony nominations on April 28th. I've already discussed the production and lead actor/actress races, so now its time to turn my attention to the Featured Actor and Actress categories. This where I expect the new rule that allows for up to seven nominees in performance categories to have the greatest effect, as past years have seen a wealth of supporting talent go unrecognized due to the categories' previously strict nominee limits. I don't expect every featured race to expand to the maximum possible nominees, but I wouldn't be surprised if one or two did. That said, I'm still going to be relatively conservative in my estimates, as history has proven time and time again that Tony voters favor spring shows.

So who's currently in the best position to hear their name announced on Tony Tuesday? Read on to find out!

WARNING: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Look for Clyde Alves (left) and Jay Armstrong Johnson (right) to join fellow On the Town sailor Tony Yazbeck (center) among this year's Tony nominees.

As with so many things, I'm expecting On the Town to dominate here. I would be shocked and more than a little indignant to see Jay Armstrong Johnson or Clyde Alves excluded from the Featured Actor race, as their work is every bit as compelling as costar and almost assured Best Actor nominee Tony Yazbeck. If some horrible twist of fate leaves only enough room for one of these supremely talented gentlemen, I give the slight edge to Johnson, whose completely endearing Chip benefits from the actor's extreme physicality and a crackling chemistry with Alysha Umphress' Hildy. I also expect at least one of Side Show's featured players to make an appearance here, although a particularly strong spring season might cause Tony voters to forget the excellent work of Matthew Hydzik, Ryan Silverman, and David St. Louis. Silverman is the most likely nominee thanks to his nuanced performance as both the show's primary love interest and antagonist, although St. Louis had the musical's most distinctive male role and sang the powerful ballad "You Should Be Loved," so he cannot be counted out. Also, should Honeymoon in Vegas' Tony Danza be deemed a supporting player despite his above the title billing, he may well make an appearance among the Featured Actor nominees as well.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Two time Tony winner James Earl Jones could well find himself nominated again this year thanks to his turn as the laid back head of the Sycamore clan in You Can't Take It With You.

Despite the abundance of plays this fall, this category appears to be wide open, as many supporting players got good reviews but hardly any got great ones. I doubt the committee will pass up the opportunity to nominate the always reliable James Earl Jones for You Can't Take It With You, although they did pass over his meatier roles in Driving Miss Daisy and Cat on a Hot Tin Roof so you never know. Ian Barford is well-positioned for recognition thanks to his excellent work in the fall's most buzzed about play, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, even though most of that show's praise has focused on the staging and its sensational leading man, Alex Sharp. The well-reviewed but mostly forgotten This Is Our Youth might actually break into the Tony conversation thanks to Kieran Culkin, and I can also see a scenario where Disgraced's Josh Radnor winds up with a nomination. But ultimately I expect the bulk of the nominees in this category to come from this spring's British imports The Audience and Wolf Hall, which feature expansive casts of men playing historical figures in high-minded dramas (re: Tony bait).

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

She can cook too! Alysha Umphress sizzles in John Rando's standout On the Town, a performance which practically demands a Tony nomination and eventual win.

#HildyNeedsaTony

That pretty much sums up my feelings about this year's Best Featured Actress in a Musical Race, as the sensational Alysha Umphress essentially steals On the Town away from her multiple, extremely talented costars. There are few things on Broadway right now more joyous and entertaining than her innuendo-laden "I Can Cook Too," and her magnetic smile and heaven-sent voice make it virtually impossible to look away whenever she's on stage. Literally everyone I know who's seen the show has walked away in love with Umphress, and it would be absolutely unacceptable if she wasn't nominated.

That said, let's talk about Elizabeth Stanley! Umphress' On the Town costar is absolutely astounding as the buttoned up Claire, charting one of the show's biggest character arcs with warmth, grace, and a gorgeously full soprano. Stanley is just as deserving of a nomination as Umphress, and I sincerely hope she is remembered during the nominations process. You also have to at least consider Megan Fairchild for her breathtaking ballets in the same show (as Karine Plantadit proved in 2010, exquisite dancing can net one a Tony nomination). And while I found Jackie Hoffman's On the Town schtick to be a tad strained, there is a lot of love for the longtime scene stealer who has somehow never been in the running for Broadway's highest honor; many feel she's overdue for at least a nomination, and this could finally be the year she gets one.

Clearly, you could almost fill this category solely with On the Town actresses, although I doubt that will actually happen. I consider Umphress and Stanley the safest bets, and they will most likely be joined by Honeymoon in Vegas' Nancy Opel. Like Hoffman, I found Opel's turn to be distractingly too over the top, but many, many reviews heaped praise upon Opel and I wouldn't begrudge her a nomination. Regardless, at this point the award is Umphress' to lose, and I'm not sure my brain could even comprehend the level of brilliance that would be required to wrest it from her.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

After finally breaking through in the Tony-winning Kinky Boots, Annaleigh Ashford gives another abashedly loony performance in this fall's You Can't Take It With You. 

I fully expect at least one of the supporting actresses from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time to make an appearance in this category, although I'm torn as to whether it will be Francesca Faridany or Enid Graham. Faridany is a more prominent and consistent maternal presence throughout the play, but Graham has the kind of heartwrenching scenes that scream "Tony Award," making it possible both actresses wind up among this year's nominees. There is also a strong likelihood previous nominee Annaleigh Ashford makes another trip down the Tony red carpet for her delightfully daffy dancer in You Can't Take It With You.

While no means assured, this category likely represents box office sensation It's Only a Play's best shot at an acting nomination, with Stockard Channing's booze addled diva one of that misguided production's few highlights. Channing also appears content to stick with the production until its early June closing, which means she will be actively performing when Tony voters are making their final decisions, which is always beneficial and an opportunity very few of this fall's actresses will have. For instance, The Elephant Man's Patricia Clarkson will have to rely on costar Bradley Cooper's high profile to keep that production alive in voters' minds, and while Martha Plimpton is in the running for her work in the soon to shutter A Delicate Balance, I'm doubtful many will remember the low buzz show past its closing date.


And there you have it. Those are my extremely early thoughts on this year's major Tony races, all of course subject to change based on the strength or weakness of this spring's offerings. A lot can change between now and late April, and you can bet I will be here through all of it. Stay tuned!

Also, don't forget to check out the rest of my current Tony coverage:

Tony Awards Rule Change
Extremely Early Tony Predictions: Part I
Extremely Early Tony Predictions: Part II

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part II

Because my love of the Tony Awards cannot be contained to a mere six weeks in the spring, I am once again using the winter lull in Broadway activity to assess the Tony prospects of last fall's shows. I've already discussed my thoughts on the production categories, meaning it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress awards.

This year sees a potentially game changing new rule allowing up to seven nominees in each of the acting categories, which is highly exciting but also makes any predictions that much harder. Since a tie in the nominations process is required to activate a category expansion I doubt we'll see it occur across the board, and after last year's Best Musical controversy I think it's best to assume the committee will err towards less rather than more nominees. With a large number of productions slated to open in the next few months that will surely produce some awards buzz, I'm also going to limit my discussion here to those performers I think have made particularly strong critical impressions.

Warning: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Actor in a Musical

Tony Yazbeck is giving a helluva performance in the triumphant Broadway return of On the Town.

The currently aren't a lot of performers who qualify in this category, but a couple of them already look like sure things. Tony Yazbeck is a hard-working and well-respected triple threat who's been given the role of his career in the top notch revival of On the Town. Yazbeck knocks it out of the park with his beautifully sung and gorgeously danced Gabey, and I would be shocked if he didn't at least score a nomination. I also expect Honeymoon in Vegas' Rob McClure to be among the lucky few on April 28th, especially since his current vehicle is much more deserving of the mercurial actor's many talents than the ill-fated Chaplin (for which he was also nominated). If there weren't so many male-fronted musicals on the horizon I would be more optimistic about Michael Esper's chances for his accomplished work in The Last Ship, but that show's early closing will be a difficult obstacle to overcome. There's also a very slim chance McClure's costar Tony Danza scores a nod, although I suspect he might be demoted to the supporting actor race despite his above the title billing.

Best Actor in a Play

Recent Julliard graduate Alex Sharp (right) astounds in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, a performance made all the more impressive by the fact that it's his Broadway debut. 

This is, hands down, the most competitive acting category at the moment. If any race is going to prompt an expansion in the number of nominees, it will be this one, which features a glut of deserving talent even before the upcoming spring shows are taken into account. It would be downright criminal to deny a nomination to The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's Alex Sharp, the Julliard graduate whose Broadway debut is more layered, nuanced, and compelling than many Broadway veterans. And while Bradley Cooper's name certainly helped generate initial interest in The Elephant Man, it's his universally praised performance as the titular character that has made that revival one of the season's hottest tickets. Both Sharp and Cooper are virtual locks.

Very close behind them is Broadway favorite Hugh Jackman, although The River has proven divisive enough as a play that it might hinder his Tony chances. On the other hand, even critics who were lukewarm on the production were impressed with the Jackman's performance, with several calling it the best of his Broadway career. It would be very surprising to see Jackman's name excluded when the nominations are announced, but the category is so competitive he may wind up as one of this year's high profile snubs. A case can also be made for Jake Gyllenhaal in his well-reviewed Broadway debut, but my feeling is that several of the spring plays will have to disappoint for the trippy Constellations to have any real awards momentum come April. And while Nathan Lane is one of our most reliable talents and was easily the best thing about the disappointing It's Only a Play, I just don't know if there's space for him among this year's nominees. If there's going to be a wildcard among the lead actors, it would be Disgraced's Hari Dhillon, but in all honesty I think the category is just too crowded for him to make the cut.

Best Actress in a Musical

Brynn O'Malley (right) gets romanced by a crooning Tony Danza in the fun-filled musical romp Honeymoon in Vegas.

I want to go on record saying Brynn O'Malley needs a Tony nomination for her standout work in Honeymoon in Vegas; her performance was my favorite thing about Jason Robert Brown's highly enjoyable musical comedy. She has little chance of actually winning, especially with new roles for Tony darlings Kelli O'Hara, Kristin Chenoweth, and Chita Rivera on the horizon, but I'm really hoping the committee includes O'Malley's name among those announced on April 28th (I think they will). I also have a soft spot for Side Show's Erin Davie and Emily Padgett, perfectly matched as conjoined twins Daisy and Violet Hilton, but I fear their show will be too long gone by the time nominations are doled out. While it would be nice to see the pair win a joint nomination like their predecessors Alice Ripley and Emily Skinner did in 1998, I have a sneaking suspicion these talented ladies will be considered individually and split votes to the point neither gets nominated. Should the category expand to six or seven nominees, there's also an outside chance The Last Ship's Rachel Tucker gets nominated for her performance as the conflicted Meg Dawson, but that scenario involves one or more of the spring's actresses turning in an unexpectedly subpar performance.

Best Actress in a Play

Three time Tony winner Glenn Close returned to Broadway in the well reviewed revival of A Delicate Balance, but the curiously buzz free production may well be forgotten by the time Tony Awards are handed out.

Most of the big names in plays this fall were men, which leaves the Best Actress category with more breathing room. It also makes this race more unpredictable, as it could go any number of ways. Glenn Close's much anticipated Broadway return in A Delicate Balance was well received and certainly makes the three-time Tony winner a contender, although that production has virtually no buzz around it. As a member of Disgraced's much praised ensemble Gretchen Mol also merits consideration, and may be the one actor from the incendiary play that actually manages to score a nomination. I would also keep an eye on Constellations' Ruth Wilson, as the two-time Olivier Award winner is a big part of why that reality-spanning love story went over so well with critics. The Real Thing's Maggie Gyllenhaal might even slip in here if the category does expand, although I have to imagine at least one of the slots is reserved for Helen Mirren's Queen Elizabeth II in this spring's The Audience.


Those are my thoughts on where the lead actor and actress races currently stand; feel free to share your picks in the comments. And for more of my 2015 Tony Awards coverage, check out below:

Tony Awards Rule Change
Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part I

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part I

Given my unabashed enthusiasm for predicting the Tony Awards, last year I decided to take a midseason look at the likely nominees for the Big 12 categories (re: production and acting), and those posts ended up being some of the most popular in the blog's history. So I'm at it again this year, taking stock of all the shows that have already opened to see who has made a big enough impression to be remembered when the Tony Award nominations are announced on April 28th. As the Tonys historically favor spring shows, only the people and productions who have made incredibly strong critical and/or commercial showings can really be considered contenders at this point. So which productions do I think have done just that? Find out below!

WARNING: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Musical

Tony Danza and Rob McClure in the year's best new musical thus far, Jason Robert Brown's fun-filled Honeymoon in Vegas.

There are currently only three shows eligible in this category, and the chances of Holler If Ya Hear Me scoring a Best Musical nod after its disastrously short run in early June are almost non-existent. It is tempting to say the two other new musicals, The Last Ship and Honeymoon in Vegas, will both make the Tonys' shortlist, but by only selecting four Best Musical contenders last year the nominations committee proved that just because they can nominate five shows doesn't mean they will. With a host of high profile new musicals slated for the spring, I suspect that we will only see one nominee from this fall's batch of shows. After all, I have to imagine Pulitzer Prize finalist Fun Home will get a Best Musical nod, and with anticipated shows like Finding Neverland, Something Rotten, and Doctor Zhivago on the horizon things look particularly grim for the already shuttered Last Ship. In addition to scoring stronger reviews, Honeymoon at least has a chance at running into the spring (although its box office will need to improve quickly), which makes it the closest to a sure thing we have right now. And for the record, I do expect to see five Best Musical nominees this year; I just expect the majority of them to come from the seven productions slated to open in the spring.

Best Play

One of many eye-popping images from the spectacular London import The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

This is already a strongly competitive category, with Disgraced, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, and Constellations all scoring across the board raves. Unless the spring slate of new plays is particularly weak, at least one of these shows will likely be omitted despite a probable five Best Play nominees. Curious Incident is in the best position, having earned a mention on many Best of 2014 lists (including my own) thanks to its eye-popping staging and engrossing portrayal of an autistic teen's struggle to clear his good name. I would consider the show a virtual lock for a nomination and a strong contender to actually win. One would think Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced would also make the cut, but interest in the show has cooled considerably and it will close long before Tony nominations are announced; the committee may decide the show has already received the recognition it deserves. Constellations will probably prove too heady and weird for its own good, although it still has a shot if one or more spring shows disappoint.

Best Musical Revival

NY City Ballet principal dancer Megan Fairchild (left) makes an impressive Broadway debut next to longtime scene stealer Jackie Hoffman (right) in the stellar revival of On the Town.

The obvious frontrunner here is John Rando's knockout revival of the Bernstein-Comden-Green tuner On the Town. I expect this show to do quite well come Tony time, and although it faces steep competition from Lincoln Center's sure-to-be lavish The King and I, this little show that could might just win it all on Tony Sunday. Meanwhile, Side Show's fortunes are harder to predict. Those familiar with the property, either from its original Broadway run or that production's cast recording, were over the moon about this reconceived revival, but the uninitiated seemed to not quite understand what all the fuss was about. Compounding Side Show's woes is the fact it has already shuttered, placing it out of sight and out of mind for many voters. For this dark musical to have any shot at a nomination, at least one of the spring revivals - On the Twentieth Century, Gigi, or the aforementioned King and I - will have to bomb, as there aren't enough shows to force an expansion of the category (and we may only get three nominees, just like last year).

Best Play Revival

Bradley Cooper (left) has been packing them in for his critically acclaimed run in The Elephant Man.

There are just enough play revivals scheduled for this season that the Tony committee could select five nominees if they were so inclined. Even if they don't, the majority of Best Revival of a Play nominees will come from the fall season, as there are only two more scheduled for the spring. The one sure thing is critical and box office smash The Elephant Man, which proves that Bradley Cooper can sell tickets and win accolades whether he's onscreen or onstage. Not quite as certain but still very likely is a nod for the excellently rendered You Can't Take It With You, which managed to overcome industry skepticism and make critics view this well-worn comedy afresh.

Given the lack of any other breakout hits, the rest of the nominations could go any number of ways. Both Love Letters and This is Our Youth received surprisingly strong reviews but only middling box office, and will have been closed for months by the time Tony voters cast their ballots. I wouldn't rule either show completely out, although I would favor Youth over Letters, as the latter was essentially a glorified reading and some voters will surely scoff at that. There's an outside chance Broadway's love of Glenn Close and John Lithgow leads to A Delicate Balance getting nominated, or that the huge box office of It's Only a Play gets it recognized, but I wouldn't count on either. I actually think It's Only a Play has hurt its chances by extending without its strongest asset (Nathan Lane), as two months of pulling in half the grosses it did this fall is going to take a lot of the sheen off this middling McNally revival.


Of course, all of this is subject to change based on the strength of the spring slate of productions, especially the Best Musical and Play categories. Check back soon to see which actors and actresses I think are sitting pretty when it comes to awards prospects, and feel free to let me know who you're rooting for in the comments.

For more 2015 Tony coverage, check out my thoughts on the latest Tony rule changes here.

The Best Shows of 2014: Part II

2014 is about to draw to close, and to celebrate the year that was I'm offering up my picks for the Best Shows of 2014. I've already listed shows 10 thru 5, and now its time to reveal my choices for the absolute best New York theatre had to offer. As always, this list is limited to productions I have actually seen, which means that certain popular and/or acclaimed productions are automatically ineligible. That also means the list skews towards Broadway musicals, as those are what I see the most of. So what are my Top 5 shows of the year? Read on to find out!

5) Hedwig and the Angry Inch

Hedwig and the Angry Inch managed the rare feat of winning Tonys for all of its principal actors. Granted, there were only two of them, but still.

When Neil Patrick Harris was announced to star in the first Broadway production of the cult musical Hedwig and the Angry Inch, I was skeptical. While I was reasonably sure the production would do well financially, I wasn't at all convinced Harris' polished, mainstream persona would work in a show known for being grungy and decidedly alternative. I am beyond thrilled Harris proved me and any doubters wrong, giving an utterly fearless, Tony-winning, tour de force performance as the titular transgendered rocker. With a breakout performance by Lena Hall and fantastic direction by Michael Mayer, Hedwig is the perfect example of how to properly scale up a small show so it fills a Broadway house without losing its essence or spirit. Although Harris departed at the end of the summer, the hit revival continues to run with a string of high profile replacements, and will see author and original Off-Broadway star John Cameron Mitchell don Hedwig's high heels in mid-January. Definitely worth a return visit.

 4) Cabaret

Alan Cumming returns to the Kit Kat Klub in Roundabout's second revival of Cabaret, a show that continues to be one of the most rewarding, well crafted book musicals of all time.

Another show many were cynical about, the Roundabout Theatre Company's revival of their Tony-winning Cabaret is the exact same production that played Broadway for 6 years in the late 1990s/early 2000s, and probably exists primarily to make money. Yet whatever the reason for its return, Sam Mendes and Rob Marshall's perfectly marvellous production is one of the few musicals from this past year to actually challenge its audience rather than pander to them, and further establishes that this dark gem of the show is one of the all time great pieces of musical theatre. Contracting Alan Cumming to reprise his Tony-winning turn as the Emcee was a stroke of genius, with Cumming delivering a stellar performance that feels entirely fresh despite the 16 years that have passed since he first tackled the part. The entire production feels authentic, dangerous, and startlingly relevant, and if it were not for a miscast Michelle Williams as Sally Bowles this show would no doubt rank even higher on the list. Williams has since been replaced by Hollywood starlet Emma Stone (reportedly the producers' original choice for the part), who by all accounts is fantastic and offers those who've already been an excellent reason to return to the Kit Kat Klub.
 

3) On the Town

Jay Armstrong Johnson, Tony Yazbeck, and Clyde Alves lead the absolutely stellar cast of the 70th anniversary production of On the Town, one of the fall's biggest treats.

Who would have thought a revival of a 70 year old musical comedy would end up being one of the freshest productions of the year? Everything about John Rando's dazzling On the Town is a pure delight, a big hearted love letter to both New York City and the Broadway of yesteryear. In an era where wicked witches defy gravity and magic carpets show audiences a whole new world, one of the most thrilling sights currently on Broadway is 30 superb dancers high kicking to Joshua Bergasse's sensational choreography, accompanied by one of the largest orchestras on Broadway brilliantly playing Leonard Bernstein's original orchestrations. The pitch perfect cast is anchored by Tony Yazbeck's superb Gabey and features a breakout (Tony-worthy) performance by Alysha Umphress as the sassy Hildy, not to mention two full scale ballet sequences specifically designed to highlight NY City Ballet's Megan Fairchild in her Broadway debut. Anyone with even the slightest inclination should run to the Lyric Theatre and buy a ticket immediately.
 

2) The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Newcomer Alex Sharp is making one of the most impressive Broadway debuts in years in the fantastic The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

You have to hand it to those Brits; they certainly know how to put on an eye-popping show. However, unlike the overhyped War Horse a few seasons back, the Broadway transfer of The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time has an excellent script to support all the visual splendor. The play is one of the most arresting, honest portrayals of autism to ever hit the New York stage, and fully succeeds in placing the audience inside the head of 15 year old protagonist Christopher Boone (played by Julliard graduate Alex Sharp in an absolutely stunning, sure to be Tony-nominated Broadway debut). All of the design elements work in tandem with Marianne Elliott's excellent direction to propel this deceptively simple mystery/thriller into "must see" territory, making Curious Incident the most exciting new play I had the privilege of seeing this year.
 

1) The Bridges of Madison County

Kelli O'Hara should have won the Tony this year. Period. The end.

Jason Robert Brown's transcendent The Bridges of Madison County is both 2014's best show and its biggest tragedy, with the musical's Broadway run cut unfairly short by weak ticket sales and a bizarrely apathetic theatrical community. Perhaps the show was hurt by its association with the widely known but not widely respected book which inspired it, or maybe the musical was a victim of bad timing that forced it to close before Tony season was completed. Whatever the reason for the show's failure, it's hard to fault the soaring score or richly detailed relationship between the lead characters. And the absolutely stunning performances by Kelli O'Hara and Steven Pasquale certainly deserved to reach a wider audience, as both achieved depths of feeling most actors can only dream about. O'Hara in particular has never been more radiant, simultaneously gut wrenching and inspiring in a career-best performance sung with a nearly unequaled level of vocal mastery. Bridges was something special, and easily the most satisfying evening I spent in a theatre this year. Here's hoping the excellent original cast recording helps this show to have a long and successful afterlife.


And there you have it. Those are, in my opinion, the Best Shows of 2014. Here's hoping 2015 brings us something just as good, if not better.

Happy New Year!

It's a Helluva Show

Review: On the Town

Clyde Alves, Tony Yazbeck, and Jay Armstrong Johnson lead the cast of the current Broadway revival of On the Town.

They don't make them like this anymore. Whether that is a good or a bad thing depends largely on personal taste, but either way it's hard to remember the last time Broadway birthed a musical as earnestly and innocently zany as the Bernstein-Comden-Green classic On the Town. And as the delightfully frothy revival which just opened at Broadway's newly renamed Lyric Theatre proves, there is a reason this particular brand of musical comedy reigned supreme for so long: it's just damned entertaining.

The show opens with a heartfelt rendition of the "Star Spangled Banner," played to glorious perfection by one of the largest, lushest orchestras on Broadway under the skilful baton of conductor James Moore. The lights rise on a sleepy seaside dock, and by the time Phillip Boykin finishes crooning the show's bucolic opening "I Feel Like I'm Not Out of Bed Yet," it is abundantly clear that this is one of the most lovingly rendered, celebratory revivals to grace Broadway in many years. Expertly performed and masterfully staged, On the Town is a love letter not just to the city of New York but to the Golden Age of Broadway, a show where the spectacle derives from the talent of the performers and the cleverness of the writing as opposed to elaborate production design (although Beowulf Boritt's candy colored sets and Jess Goldstein's period-perfect costumes are certainly a joy to behold).

The cast, from top to bottom, is virtually pitch perfect. Tony Yazbeck, Jay Armstrong Johnson, and Clyde Alves excel as the central trio of sailors given 24 hours shore leave, exuding an infectious camaraderie and an unabashed love for one another and the material. Yazbeck proves himself a true triple threat as romantic lead Gabey, anchoring the show with his earnestness and lending his powerful voice to some of the score's most anthemic ballads. Johnson is an unexpected delight as Chip, the most overtly comedic of the three roles, with his boyish good looks and "gee golly" charm endearing him to the audience almost instantly. And Alves holds his own as Ozzie, with a gleefully manic energy and over the top physicality that makes his big showcase "Carried Away" one of the evening's many highlights.

Matching them step for step and scene for scene are their respective love interests. Megan Fairchild, long one of New York City Ballet's most celebrated dancers, makes her Broadway debut as Ivy, and the audience is just as instantly smitten with her as Yazbeck's Gabey. Though a fine actress and singer, Fairchild was clearly cast to dance, and she does so in some of the most virtuosic solo work seen on Broadway this decade. Her second act pas de deux with Yazbeck is breathtakingly gorgeous, and throughout the evening Fairchild appears to effortlessly float across the stage despite the rigorous demands placed on her by choreographer Joshua Bergasse. Elizabeth Stanley is glorious unhinged as Claire, Ozzie's (engaged) romantic foil, and despite a uniformly strong cast, Alysha Umphress threatens to steal the show as Hildy, Chip's bold and brassy lady love.

In fact, Umphress is close to a revelation in the role, effortlessly self assured and blessed with a voice that can raise the rafters. Her introductory duet with Johnson, "Come Up to My Place," is one of the evening's most sustained feats of hilarity, aided by Johnson's game physicality and delightfully simple yet effective staging by director John Rando. And just when it looks like Umphress' best moment will be her first, she knocks the innuendo-laden "I Can Cook Too" out of the park. In fact, that number's instant reprise (a stylistic trait that has not aged particularly well) is the only one of the night that feels entirely welcome, as Umphress' high energy scatting and big money note suitably top her already sterling delivery of the song's original incarnation.

The previously mentioned Rando and Bergasse (director and choreographer, respectively) deserve special praise for the way they have effortlessly wrangled this beast of a show into an easily digestible comedic feast. Rando keeps things moving with his varied and inventive staging; for a show with comparatively few scenic elements, On the Town is always interesting to look at. And in his Broadway choreographic debut, Bergasse astounds with the sheer volume and ingenuity of his work. Whether he's having his dancers leap through the air or embody living mannequins, Bergasse's choreography is both technically impressive and delightfully whimsical. All of the stagecraft advancements of the past 30 years have yet to top the unbridled thrill of seeing a stageful of dancers jump, twist, and pirouette in unison, and Bergasse delivers such sights in spades. In a show with four full fledged ballets and numerous large production numbers, Bergasse's inventiveness never falters, and hopefully we will be seeing much, much more of his work in the future.

On the Town is undeniably old fashioned, and it does possess a few conventions that have not aged particularly well. But on the whole this revival feels as fresh and vibrant as ever, with a top tier cast and creative team who are clearly having the time of their lives. Only the most curmudgeonly of audience members would be unable to recognize and enjoy this production's many strengths, and for fans of Golden Age Broadway this revival is a dream come true. For the show's duration, any and all troubles melt away, a rare and precious gift that On the Town bestows freely, and a breath of fresh air during these increasingly troubled times.

2014 Fall Preview: The Musicals

Erin Davie and Emily Padgett are set to reprise their roles as conjoined twins Violet and Daisy Hilton in the Broadway transfer of the acclaimed Kennedy Center production of the cult musical Side Show.

Although I am vehemently opposed to our nation's obsession with pumpkin everything and the attendant rush to have it be fall RIGHT NOW, there's no denying that the summer is coming to a close. The coming months will see a bevy of new Broadway productions begin performances, and since I've already examined the fall's crop of plays it's time to turn our attention to the type of theatre that is most synonymous with the Great White Way: the Broadway musical. While there aren't nearly as many musicals as plays premiering in the coming months, the industry seems to have collectively decided on a quality-over-quantity approach. (Almost) Every single musical, new or revived, sounds like an enticing evening at the theatre, and I am legitimately excited for them. So without further ado, here are the upcoming shows that will hopefully have us singing and dancing in the aisle this coming fall.

On the Town
Previews begin 9/20; Opening Night 10/16

While I'm not convinced the current Broadway economy can really support a big budget, old school song-and-dance fest like On the Town, I'm sure glad some producers have decided to give it a try. The Bernstein-Comden-Green musical perfectly fits my criteria for shows that merit a full scale revival (it's a well-liked musical that was a huge hit during its original run that isn't produced very often anymore), and it will be nice to see another dance musical on the Great White Way now that Newsies has ceased carrying the banner. I'm concerned On the Town has booked Spider-Man's old theatre (the freshly renamed Lyric), because I don't think the musical has the kind of drawing power to consistently sell a house that size, but hopefully the producers keep running costs low so it won't need to be a sell-out hit to survive.

The Last Ship
Previews begin 9/30; Opening Night 10/26

This is the one musical I am not interested in seeing, thanks mostly to the snooze-inducing preview performance on this year's Tony telecast. Multiple Grammy-winner Sting tries his hand at writing showtunes for this semi-autobiographical show about a shipbuilding town in England struggling to stave off financial ruin. As Bono and the Edge proved with their disastrous Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark, success and acclaim in the recording industry doesn't always translate to the stage, and quite honestly the entire affair sounds dull and uninteresting. In fairness, The Last Ship received encouraging (but by no means stellar) reviews during its out of town tryout, but it's going to need really strong buzz to convince me I want to sit through 2 1/2 hours of the same type of low-key material showcased on the Tonys.

Side Show
Previews begin 10/28; Opening Night 11/17

It took longer than I initially expected, but the well-reviewed Kennedy Center production of this 1997 cult-musical is officially coming to Broadway, and I couldn't be more excited. While the original production of Side Show only ran for a couple of months, the musical's reputation has only grown since its premature closing thanks to an intriguing premise - it tells the story of real-life conjoined twins Daisy and Violet Hilton - and a fantastic score. The show has been retooled, rethought, and rewritten by original authors Henry Krieger and Bill Russell along with the revival's director, Bill Condon (an Oscar winner who is also responsible for the fantastic film version of Krieger's Dreamgirls). I'm concerned about the show's financial prospects - dark musical dramas are a hard sell these days - but I will certainly be in attendance, and I hope this new production is the beginning of a long and prosperous second life for the ambitious property.

Honeymoon in Vegas
Previews begin 11/18; Opening Night 1/15/15

While I couldn't begin to tell you why a show The New York Times' Ben Brantley practically demanded transfer to Broadway has a two month preview period, the important thing is Honeymoon in Vegas is coming to bless us with another glorious Jason Robert Brown score. While this is the first full-fledged comedy the three-time Tony-winner has written, his previous works are rife with inventive lyrics and fun, uptempo melodies in songs like The Last 5 Year's "Summer in Ohio" or Songs for a New World's "Surabaya-Santa." It also marks the Broadway return of rising star Rob McClure, who will hopefully find a vehicle more worthy of his talents than the misguided Chaplin a few years back. If the show is as good as early buzz suggests, Honeymoon may give Brown his first commercial success, something that should help ease the sting of the criminally chilly reception his brilliant Bridges of Madison County received earlier this year. (Sidenote: both the show and leading lady Kelli O'Hara were *robbed* of Tony Awards this year!)


And there you have it! Those are all 16 productions scheduled to premiere on Broadway this fall. Which shows are you most excited about? Don't be afraid to let me know in the comments!

And in case you missed it, here are the previous two parts of my Fall Preview:

2014 Fall Preview: Play Revivals
2014 Fall Preview: New Plays