2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part III (Best Actress)

Tony Tuesday is right around the corner, with the 2015 nominees scheduled to be announced bright and early on Tuesday, April 28th. (I've always found it odd that a profession where most everyone works nights announces anything so early in the morning, but that is neither here nor there.) I've already discussed which productions and leading men I expect to score nominations, and now it's time to turn my attention to Broadway's leading ladies. The latest Tony rule change allows anywhere between five and seven nominees in each category, leaving me to puzzle out not only the names of the contenders but how many of them I expect there to be. I doubt every category to automatically expand to seven nominees, but I don't expect every category to stay capped at five either. And in the name of covering my bases for the inevitable Tony curveball nomination, I'm also naming a wildcard performer who I feel has the best chance of unseating one of my official predictions.


Best Actress

Dame Helen Mirren is practically theatrical royalty, and she is playing royalty in the box office smash The Audience. She is one of this year's few sure things when it comes to the Tony Awards.

There are very few givens for this year's Tony Awards, but one of those givens is that Helen Mirren will be up for Best Actress. The Oscar winner is reprising her much lauded portrayal of Queen Elizabeth II in The Audience, one of this spring's biggest box office successes. Some critics weren't overly impressed with playwright Peter Morgan's script, but everyone agreed Mirren made the show worth seeing, and in all honesty this award is likely hers to lose. And although not quite the lock Mirren is, Skylight's Carey Mulligan is another actress virtually guaranteed an invite to this year's ceremony at Radio City. 

I would be very surprised to see Constellations' Ruth Wilson excluded from this year's race, as she drew universal raves for her performance in Manhattan Theatre Club's two-hander. Less certain is a nomination for Elisabeth Moss, as the revival of Wendy Wasserstein's The Heidi Chronicles was not the critical home run many people were expecting and has already posted an early closing notice due to lackluster box office. Still, even those who weren't enamored with the production generally liked the Mad Men actress' performance, particularly her delivery of a key monologue during the play's second act. I'm going to cut the former Peggy Olsen some slack and consider her to be among this year's nominees.

Which still leaves at least one nomination up for grabs with no obvious candidate to fill it. Perhaps Maggie Gyllenhaal will join her brother Jake among this year's nominees for her performance in Roundabout's well liked (but not loved) revival of The Real Thing. Glenn Close's much ballyhooed return to Broadway in Edward Albee's A Delicate Balance failed to generate much box office heat, but the actress remains an industry favorite and the weaker field of competitors could work in her favor. Hand to God's Geneva Carr has been ruled eligible in this category instead of the Featured Actress race, and her strong performance combined with an obvious critical love for the boundary pushing play makes her a strong contender. In fact, I suspect Carr will edge out more famous names like Renee Fleming (currently playing an opera diva in Living on Love) and previous Tony winner Blythe Danner, whose fall play The Country House has been entirely absent from the end of season chatter.

Nominees
Geneva Carr, Hand to God
Helen Mirren, The Audience
Elisabeth Moss, The Heidi Chronicles
Carey Mulligan, Skylight
Ruth Wilson, Constellations

Wildcard
Glenn Close, A Delicate Balance


Best Actress in a Musical

Pint sized powerhouse Kristin Chenoweth is giving 110% in Roundabout's On the Twentieth Century, and will surely get a Tony nomination for her efforts.

Anyone who has been following this blog will know I am *heavily* rooting for Kelli O'Hara to win this damn award already! She is one of our most gifted singing actresses, and she is once again giving a masterclass performance in Lincoln Center's The King and I, a production I literally don't have enough positive adjectives for. There is no reality in which her reteaming with director Bartlett Sher fails to net the actress her sixth career nomination, as all three of their previous collaborations resulted not only in nominations but some of O'Hara's most legendary performances. I know several Tony voters specifically held off on voting for the golden voiced soprano last year under the assumption she was a shoe in to win this year (which is so not how these things should work, but that's a rant for another time); her failing to even get nominated would be one of the most shocking things to happen with the Tony nominations in years.

My unbridled love of O'Hara aside, I have to admit that Broadway's other blonde Oklahoma native is going to give O'Hara a serious run for her money. After a poorly received performance in Promises, Promises and five years away from the Broadway stage, Kristin Chenoweth is firing on all cylinders in On the Twentieth Century, a role that seems tailor-made for her unique combination of talents. Her nomination is guaranteed, and I think everyone agrees that she and O'Hara are this year's front runners. (Fun fact: Chenoweth and O'Hara both went to the same school and had the same vocal instructor, who must be ridiculously proud.) The final sure thing in this race is a nod for Broadway legend Chita Rivera in The Visit, with the actress once again paired with the writing team of Kander, Ebb, and McNally, who crafted both of Rivera's previous Tony-winning roles around her singular set of talents.

After that, things become much harder to predict. Brynn O'Malley *deserves* recognition for her sterling work in Honeymoon in Vegas, although I worry what the show's truncated Broadway run means for her Tony prospects. I'd also love to see a joint nomination for Side Show's Erin Davie and Emily Padgett, but the committee has already decided to consider the actresses separately and their show's premature closing will severely limit their chances. If pressed to pick a favorite, I'd give the slight edge to Padgett for the more emotionally complex of the two roles, as Tony voters have shown an increasing appreciation for nuance over flash in the past few seasons. This same trend also increases Beth Malone's chances for her moving portrayal of adult Alison in Fun Home, although I personally would consider it more of a featured role.

The final three actresses that I think have a legitimate shot are Gigi's Vanessa Hudgens, Finding Neverland's Laura Michelle Kelly, and An American in Paris' Leanne Cope. I suspect Tony voters are ultimately too snobbish to give a Tony nomination to former High School Musical star Hudgens, and the fact that her show was pretty resoundingly trashed by critics doesn't help. On the flip side, Kelly escaped the vitriol hurled towards Neverland virtually unscathed and possibly looking even better by comparison. And Paris has been doing surprisingly well at both the box office and in the various guild awards, all of which have singled out Cope for her Broadway debut. I give the edge to Cope and Kelly, but I wouldn't be shocked to see any of these women nominated come Tuesday morning.

Nominees
Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century
Leanne Cope, An American in Paris
Laura Michelle Kelly, Finding Neverland
Beth Malone, Fun Home
Kelli O'Hara, The King and I
Chita Rivera, The Visit

Wildcard
Brynn O'Malley, Honeymoon in Vegas


That covers this year's leading performances; check back tomorrow for my analysis of the hardest categories to predict, the Featured Actor/Actress races. In the meantime, feel free to share which leading lady you'd like to see nominated in the comments, and don't forget to check out any Tony coverage you may have missed!

Tony Rule Change
2015 Nominee Predictions: Production
2015 Nominee Predictions: Best Actor

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part II

Because my love of the Tony Awards cannot be contained to a mere six weeks in the spring, I am once again using the winter lull in Broadway activity to assess the Tony prospects of last fall's shows. I've already discussed my thoughts on the production categories, meaning it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress awards.

This year sees a potentially game changing new rule allowing up to seven nominees in each of the acting categories, which is highly exciting but also makes any predictions that much harder. Since a tie in the nominations process is required to activate a category expansion I doubt we'll see it occur across the board, and after last year's Best Musical controversy I think it's best to assume the committee will err towards less rather than more nominees. With a large number of productions slated to open in the next few months that will surely produce some awards buzz, I'm also going to limit my discussion here to those performers I think have made particularly strong critical impressions.

Warning: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Actor in a Musical

Tony Yazbeck is giving a helluva performance in the triumphant Broadway return of On the Town.

The currently aren't a lot of performers who qualify in this category, but a couple of them already look like sure things. Tony Yazbeck is a hard-working and well-respected triple threat who's been given the role of his career in the top notch revival of On the Town. Yazbeck knocks it out of the park with his beautifully sung and gorgeously danced Gabey, and I would be shocked if he didn't at least score a nomination. I also expect Honeymoon in Vegas' Rob McClure to be among the lucky few on April 28th, especially since his current vehicle is much more deserving of the mercurial actor's many talents than the ill-fated Chaplin (for which he was also nominated). If there weren't so many male-fronted musicals on the horizon I would be more optimistic about Michael Esper's chances for his accomplished work in The Last Ship, but that show's early closing will be a difficult obstacle to overcome. There's also a very slim chance McClure's costar Tony Danza scores a nod, although I suspect he might be demoted to the supporting actor race despite his above the title billing.

Best Actor in a Play

Recent Julliard graduate Alex Sharp (right) astounds in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, a performance made all the more impressive by the fact that it's his Broadway debut. 

This is, hands down, the most competitive acting category at the moment. If any race is going to prompt an expansion in the number of nominees, it will be this one, which features a glut of deserving talent even before the upcoming spring shows are taken into account. It would be downright criminal to deny a nomination to The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's Alex Sharp, the Julliard graduate whose Broadway debut is more layered, nuanced, and compelling than many Broadway veterans. And while Bradley Cooper's name certainly helped generate initial interest in The Elephant Man, it's his universally praised performance as the titular character that has made that revival one of the season's hottest tickets. Both Sharp and Cooper are virtual locks.

Very close behind them is Broadway favorite Hugh Jackman, although The River has proven divisive enough as a play that it might hinder his Tony chances. On the other hand, even critics who were lukewarm on the production were impressed with the Jackman's performance, with several calling it the best of his Broadway career. It would be very surprising to see Jackman's name excluded when the nominations are announced, but the category is so competitive he may wind up as one of this year's high profile snubs. A case can also be made for Jake Gyllenhaal in his well-reviewed Broadway debut, but my feeling is that several of the spring plays will have to disappoint for the trippy Constellations to have any real awards momentum come April. And while Nathan Lane is one of our most reliable talents and was easily the best thing about the disappointing It's Only a Play, I just don't know if there's space for him among this year's nominees. If there's going to be a wildcard among the lead actors, it would be Disgraced's Hari Dhillon, but in all honesty I think the category is just too crowded for him to make the cut.

Best Actress in a Musical

Brynn O'Malley (right) gets romanced by a crooning Tony Danza in the fun-filled musical romp Honeymoon in Vegas.

I want to go on record saying Brynn O'Malley needs a Tony nomination for her standout work in Honeymoon in Vegas; her performance was my favorite thing about Jason Robert Brown's highly enjoyable musical comedy. She has little chance of actually winning, especially with new roles for Tony darlings Kelli O'Hara, Kristin Chenoweth, and Chita Rivera on the horizon, but I'm really hoping the committee includes O'Malley's name among those announced on April 28th (I think they will). I also have a soft spot for Side Show's Erin Davie and Emily Padgett, perfectly matched as conjoined twins Daisy and Violet Hilton, but I fear their show will be too long gone by the time nominations are doled out. While it would be nice to see the pair win a joint nomination like their predecessors Alice Ripley and Emily Skinner did in 1998, I have a sneaking suspicion these talented ladies will be considered individually and split votes to the point neither gets nominated. Should the category expand to six or seven nominees, there's also an outside chance The Last Ship's Rachel Tucker gets nominated for her performance as the conflicted Meg Dawson, but that scenario involves one or more of the spring's actresses turning in an unexpectedly subpar performance.

Best Actress in a Play

Three time Tony winner Glenn Close returned to Broadway in the well reviewed revival of A Delicate Balance, but the curiously buzz free production may well be forgotten by the time Tony Awards are handed out.

Most of the big names in plays this fall were men, which leaves the Best Actress category with more breathing room. It also makes this race more unpredictable, as it could go any number of ways. Glenn Close's much anticipated Broadway return in A Delicate Balance was well received and certainly makes the three-time Tony winner a contender, although that production has virtually no buzz around it. As a member of Disgraced's much praised ensemble Gretchen Mol also merits consideration, and may be the one actor from the incendiary play that actually manages to score a nomination. I would also keep an eye on Constellations' Ruth Wilson, as the two-time Olivier Award winner is a big part of why that reality-spanning love story went over so well with critics. The Real Thing's Maggie Gyllenhaal might even slip in here if the category does expand, although I have to imagine at least one of the slots is reserved for Helen Mirren's Queen Elizabeth II in this spring's The Audience.


Those are my thoughts on where the lead actor and actress races currently stand; feel free to share your picks in the comments. And for more of my 2015 Tony Awards coverage, check out below:

Tony Awards Rule Change
Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part I

When You Say Vegas, You're Saying Laughs

Review: Honeymoon in Vegas

Tony Danza (left) and Rob McClure (right) ham it up in the hysterical new comedy Honeymoon in Vegas.

If there was a Tony Award for most versatile composer, Jason Robert Brown (who already has 3 of the gold statuettes) would certainly be a prime candidate. Brown's bouncy songs for the frothy, tuneful Honeymoon in Vegas couldn't be further removed from the rapturous, nearly operatic score he composed for The Bridges of Madison County just one year ago. Like Bridges, his latest show is not entirely free from flaws, but those problems are miniscule compared to everything this slickly produced and highly entertaining comedy gets right. Honeymoon is the most purely entertaining new musical of the season, and represents yet another high point in Brown's ever expanding songbook.

The show concerns Jack Singer, an everyday Brooklynite with serious commitment issues. Although Jack dearly loves his longtime girlfriend Betsy, a deathbed promise to his departed mother causes him to choke every time he contemplates popping the big question. He finally works up the nerve to take her to Las Vegas to elope, but things go awry when an unscrupulous gambler by the name of Tommy Korman decides he must have Betsy for himself (as she is a dead ringer for Tommy's deceased wife). What follows is a madcap adventure that takes everyone from the Vegas Strip to the beaches of Hawaii and back over the course of one zany weekend, with plenty of musical comedy shenanigans along the way.

Brown has been duly praised over the course of his career, and his work here again asserts his position as one of the most versatile, accomplished composers working in the theatre today. Brown combines infectious melodies and toe tapping vamps with playfully inventive lyrics that are witty without feeling forced; even the ever-exacting Sondheim would surely be delighted with the rhyming of "Beyoncé" and "fiancé." The songs walk the fine line between sounding familiar and still offering sonic surprises, and everything has been arranged by Brown and his co-orchestrators Don Sebesky, Larry Blank, and Charlie Rosen to evoke the big brassy musicals of yesteryear. While a couple of songs overstay their welcome, the vast majority are so delightful you'll actually find yourself wishing for full fledged reprises rather than the melodic motifs Brown favors here. If there's one major knock against the score, it's that the songs are so well integrated into the plot that it prohibits any true showstoppers from emerging.

Speaking of plotting, librettist Andrew Bergman has done a smashing job of adapting his own screenplay for the stage. Although certain developments are a little too clearly telegraphed, the book scenes in large part avoid the inauthenticity that plagues so many musical comedies. The songs are the clear highlight, but the book scenes hold your interest because they handle character and plot development in a way that is virtually seamless.

Unfortunately for the show, some of Brown and Bergman's sterling work is obscured by Gary Griffin's overly busy direction. Certain jokes get lost thanks to unnecessarily distracting staging, which renders numbers like the opening "I Love Betsy" less humorous than they could be. There are also certain physical conventions that are only haphazardly employed, which again confuses things in this very tightly written and plotted show. One glaring example is "Forever Starts Tonight," which sees Tommy inexplicably interacting with Jack and Betsy while they steadfastly ignore his presence. Griffin probably means for Tommy to be in a separate location, but having him move between the two and even touch them (on a bare stage) makes the distinction harder to grasp. First time choreographer Denis Jones' work is also underwhelming, although part of his problem stems from trying to shoehorn a traditional ensemble into songs that don't really require them outside of backing harmonies.

In the central role of Jack, Tony-nominee Rob McClure does exceptional work. McClure has an appealing everyman quality with just enough neurosis to keep him interesting, and his delivery of Brown's lyrics is as natural and effortless as breathing. McClure's incredibly expressive face speaks volumes, and the young actor has a clear gift for musical comedy that he smartly deploys throughout the evening. Television icon Tony Danza is surprisingly effective as McClure's romantic rival Tommy, with a pleasant singing voice and an easy-going persona that belies the nefarious means he'll use to get what he wants. Danza can seem stiff at times, but overall he gives a charmingly accomplished performance.

As the much desired and put upon Betsy, Brynn O'Malley is something close to a revelation. O'Malley takes a character that could have been quite boring and makes her the most interesting and human person onstage, in a brilliantly naturalistic turn that has just enough comedic bite to withstand the tomfoolery going on around her. Equally adept at heartfelt ballads and more comedic uptempos, O'Malley also has a subtly hilarious, entirely wordless cameo as Tommy's long-dead wife during the song "Out of the Sun." The only thing that could possibly improve O'Malley's performance is if Brown had written her the showstopper she so clearly deserves. The extremely catchy "Betsy's Getting Married" comes *this close* to being such a number, but unfortunately for O'Malley the song morphs into a musical scene between Jack and Tommy just when she's poised to kick the song into high gear.

The entire enterprise is slickly designed and lovingly realized, with the saturated colors and slightly exaggerated geometry of Anna Louizos' set selling the fantasy of Honeymoon's versions of Vegas, New York, and Hawaii. Louizos also makes excellent use of projections to seamlessly enhance her sets in a way that is almost unnoticeable (and more importantly, doesn't replace physical set pieces). Brian Hemesath's costumes encompass everything from track suits to feathered headdresses, all rendered in eye-popping colors that perfectly compliment the show's heightened tone. The show is always a joy to look at, successfully combining a modern Broadway aesthetic with an old school sensibility.

In fact, that duality best sums up Honeymoon in Vegas. It seamlessly combines the best traits of Golden Age musical comedies and more contemporary works, bolstered by yet another outstanding score from the multi-talented Jason Robert Brown. Overflowing with wit and warmth, the production is occasionally hindered by Gary Griffin's overreliance on bells and whistles, but the show's big beaming heart shines through regardless. Rob McClure proves that his excellent work in the ill-fated Chaplin was not a fluke, and Brynn O'Malley emerges as a musical comedy force to be reckoned with. Honeymoon is one of the safest bets you can currently make on Broadway, a guaranteed good time that deserves a wider audience.