2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part III (Best Actress)

Tony Tuesday is right around the corner, with the 2015 nominees scheduled to be announced bright and early on Tuesday, April 28th. (I've always found it odd that a profession where most everyone works nights announces anything so early in the morning, but that is neither here nor there.) I've already discussed which productions and leading men I expect to score nominations, and now it's time to turn my attention to Broadway's leading ladies. The latest Tony rule change allows anywhere between five and seven nominees in each category, leaving me to puzzle out not only the names of the contenders but how many of them I expect there to be. I doubt every category to automatically expand to seven nominees, but I don't expect every category to stay capped at five either. And in the name of covering my bases for the inevitable Tony curveball nomination, I'm also naming a wildcard performer who I feel has the best chance of unseating one of my official predictions.


Best Actress

Dame Helen Mirren is practically theatrical royalty, and she is playing royalty in the box office smash The Audience. She is one of this year's few sure things when it comes to the Tony Awards.

There are very few givens for this year's Tony Awards, but one of those givens is that Helen Mirren will be up for Best Actress. The Oscar winner is reprising her much lauded portrayal of Queen Elizabeth II in The Audience, one of this spring's biggest box office successes. Some critics weren't overly impressed with playwright Peter Morgan's script, but everyone agreed Mirren made the show worth seeing, and in all honesty this award is likely hers to lose. And although not quite the lock Mirren is, Skylight's Carey Mulligan is another actress virtually guaranteed an invite to this year's ceremony at Radio City. 

I would be very surprised to see Constellations' Ruth Wilson excluded from this year's race, as she drew universal raves for her performance in Manhattan Theatre Club's two-hander. Less certain is a nomination for Elisabeth Moss, as the revival of Wendy Wasserstein's The Heidi Chronicles was not the critical home run many people were expecting and has already posted an early closing notice due to lackluster box office. Still, even those who weren't enamored with the production generally liked the Mad Men actress' performance, particularly her delivery of a key monologue during the play's second act. I'm going to cut the former Peggy Olsen some slack and consider her to be among this year's nominees.

Which still leaves at least one nomination up for grabs with no obvious candidate to fill it. Perhaps Maggie Gyllenhaal will join her brother Jake among this year's nominees for her performance in Roundabout's well liked (but not loved) revival of The Real Thing. Glenn Close's much ballyhooed return to Broadway in Edward Albee's A Delicate Balance failed to generate much box office heat, but the actress remains an industry favorite and the weaker field of competitors could work in her favor. Hand to God's Geneva Carr has been ruled eligible in this category instead of the Featured Actress race, and her strong performance combined with an obvious critical love for the boundary pushing play makes her a strong contender. In fact, I suspect Carr will edge out more famous names like Renee Fleming (currently playing an opera diva in Living on Love) and previous Tony winner Blythe Danner, whose fall play The Country House has been entirely absent from the end of season chatter.

Nominees
Geneva Carr, Hand to God
Helen Mirren, The Audience
Elisabeth Moss, The Heidi Chronicles
Carey Mulligan, Skylight
Ruth Wilson, Constellations

Wildcard
Glenn Close, A Delicate Balance


Best Actress in a Musical

Pint sized powerhouse Kristin Chenoweth is giving 110% in Roundabout's On the Twentieth Century, and will surely get a Tony nomination for her efforts.

Anyone who has been following this blog will know I am *heavily* rooting for Kelli O'Hara to win this damn award already! She is one of our most gifted singing actresses, and she is once again giving a masterclass performance in Lincoln Center's The King and I, a production I literally don't have enough positive adjectives for. There is no reality in which her reteaming with director Bartlett Sher fails to net the actress her sixth career nomination, as all three of their previous collaborations resulted not only in nominations but some of O'Hara's most legendary performances. I know several Tony voters specifically held off on voting for the golden voiced soprano last year under the assumption she was a shoe in to win this year (which is so not how these things should work, but that's a rant for another time); her failing to even get nominated would be one of the most shocking things to happen with the Tony nominations in years.

My unbridled love of O'Hara aside, I have to admit that Broadway's other blonde Oklahoma native is going to give O'Hara a serious run for her money. After a poorly received performance in Promises, Promises and five years away from the Broadway stage, Kristin Chenoweth is firing on all cylinders in On the Twentieth Century, a role that seems tailor-made for her unique combination of talents. Her nomination is guaranteed, and I think everyone agrees that she and O'Hara are this year's front runners. (Fun fact: Chenoweth and O'Hara both went to the same school and had the same vocal instructor, who must be ridiculously proud.) The final sure thing in this race is a nod for Broadway legend Chita Rivera in The Visit, with the actress once again paired with the writing team of Kander, Ebb, and McNally, who crafted both of Rivera's previous Tony-winning roles around her singular set of talents.

After that, things become much harder to predict. Brynn O'Malley *deserves* recognition for her sterling work in Honeymoon in Vegas, although I worry what the show's truncated Broadway run means for her Tony prospects. I'd also love to see a joint nomination for Side Show's Erin Davie and Emily Padgett, but the committee has already decided to consider the actresses separately and their show's premature closing will severely limit their chances. If pressed to pick a favorite, I'd give the slight edge to Padgett for the more emotionally complex of the two roles, as Tony voters have shown an increasing appreciation for nuance over flash in the past few seasons. This same trend also increases Beth Malone's chances for her moving portrayal of adult Alison in Fun Home, although I personally would consider it more of a featured role.

The final three actresses that I think have a legitimate shot are Gigi's Vanessa Hudgens, Finding Neverland's Laura Michelle Kelly, and An American in Paris' Leanne Cope. I suspect Tony voters are ultimately too snobbish to give a Tony nomination to former High School Musical star Hudgens, and the fact that her show was pretty resoundingly trashed by critics doesn't help. On the flip side, Kelly escaped the vitriol hurled towards Neverland virtually unscathed and possibly looking even better by comparison. And Paris has been doing surprisingly well at both the box office and in the various guild awards, all of which have singled out Cope for her Broadway debut. I give the edge to Cope and Kelly, but I wouldn't be shocked to see any of these women nominated come Tuesday morning.

Nominees
Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century
Leanne Cope, An American in Paris
Laura Michelle Kelly, Finding Neverland
Beth Malone, Fun Home
Kelli O'Hara, The King and I
Chita Rivera, The Visit

Wildcard
Brynn O'Malley, Honeymoon in Vegas


That covers this year's leading performances; check back tomorrow for my analysis of the hardest categories to predict, the Featured Actor/Actress races. In the meantime, feel free to share which leading lady you'd like to see nominated in the comments, and don't forget to check out any Tony coverage you may have missed!

Tony Rule Change
2015 Nominee Predictions: Production
2015 Nominee Predictions: Best Actor

Shocking, Profane, and Just What Broadway Needs?

Review: Hand to God

Steven Boyer as Jason (l) and Tyrone (r), the stars of the provocative new play Hand to God.

There's been little on contemporary Broadway to prepare audiences for the pitch black comedy Hand to God, a provocative indictment of religion and faith currently drawing both hearty guffaws and shocked gasps at the Booth Theatre. Sure, Avenue Q tackled the "foul mouthed puppets" schtick first, but despite that Tony-winning musical's abundance of four letter words its characters lacked the viciousness and anger of Tyrone, the profanity prone sock puppet at this play's center. Written by Broadway newcomer Robert Askins, Hand to God is one of the most brazen, boundary pushing, and thoroughly unpredictable new works to grace the Great White Way in some time. These characteristics prove to be both assets and weaknesses during the show's lighting fast two hour runtime, and even if you don't agree with or even like the play, you certainly can't accuse Askins and company of playing it safe.

Set in the small town of Cypress, Texas (Askins' actual hometown), Hand to God introduces us to Jason, a shy and awkward young man who has been coerced by his mother Margery into joining her Christian Puppet Ministry. Puppet practice seems to be one of the few things that brings Jason anything resembling joy, as he struggles with his awkwardness around girls, the school bully, and a very complicated relationship with his recently widowed mother. Unfortunately for Jason, his hand puppet Tyrone seems to have taken on a mind of its own, providing withering critiques of everyone in Jason's life via hilariously caustic one liners. Soon it becomes clear that Tyrone has gotten out of hand (sorry, I had to), and by intermission it's already apparent there is no line Hand to God is unwilling to cross.

Once Askins' script gets going, there's no stopping it. Events quickly spiral beyond any semblance of control, making for a thrilling roller coaster ride of a play that will quickly take you from being doubled over in laughter to physically cringing at the thought of what might happen next. There is nothing pretentious or artificial about Askins' dialogue, which perfectly captures the play's small town milieu and lends the show's characters an authenticity without which the entire enterprise would crumble. (Praise be to vocal coach Ellen Lettrich for creating one of the most convincing southern drawls this Georgia transplant has ever heard on the New York stage.)

Askins makes a lot of smart observation about human behavior and how the concepts of good and evil function in our society. Unfortunately, he bites off a bit more than he can chew, particularly when it comes to Jason's mother. Margery enters into an incredibly violent sexual relationship that has the outward appearance of rape, except no one including Margery seems all too concerned about what that suggests. If this had been a one time occurrence it would still be troubling but perhaps understandable from a playwriting perspective; however, there are two separate and lengthy instances of this not-rape, the consequences of which are never adequately addressed. They seem included solely for shock value, which is particularly disheartening when contrasted with how Tyrone's discomforting tirades force you to re-examine your own assumptions in order to understand where the play is coming from.

On a less unsettling note, the play is incredibly well acted, especially the jaw-dropping fluidity with which Steven Boyer simultaneously portrays the meek Jason and strong willed Tyrone. Boyer's mastery of his own body is so complete and specific that Jason and Tyrone truly feel like separate entities. The contrast between Jason's hunched over, closed off body language and Tyrone's upright fury while railing against his host is mind boggling, and several of the play's best scenes take place entirely between Jason and Tyrone. Boyer's commitment to his dual roles and expert puppeteering mean you must constantly remind yourself that Tyrone is not a living, breathing being. The inventive ways Boyer has Tyrone interact with the environment and other characters are both a joy to watch and absolutely terrifying (at one point, Boyer finds a way to convincingly throw himself across the room by having Tyrone hoist Jason up by his shirt collar). Boyer's is the type of performance that will be talked about for years to come, and is reason enough to justify the price of a ticket.

Geneva Carr does very strong work as Margery and almost manages to make the aforementioned rape scenes work. She provides a very compelling and believable portrait of a basically good woman handling life's trials very poorly (there is no Mother of the Year award in Margery's future), and through it all her very real yet strained love of Jason provides the play with its emotional core. Marc Kudish is in fine form in the mostly reactionary role of Pastor Greg, and Michael Oberholtzer is perfectly cast as the town bully/troubled youth Timothy. And Sarah Stiles miraculously finds a new take on the "girl next door" archetype that feels both fresh and truthful.

Beowulf Boritt's set is perfection down to the smallest detail. Everything from the specific type of plastic chair to the cloying motivational posters on the wall to the specific shade of blue-gray paint haphazardly applied over brick and mortar screams small town church, and Boritt makes clever use of rotating walls to reveal the play's other mundane but no less evocative locales. As with most contemporary-set plays, Sydney Maresca's costumes and Jason Lyons' lights don't really get the chance to go beyond their most basic functions, but both designs are still well executed and serve the piece well. Everything is competently directed by Moritz von Stuelpnagel, who smartly lets Askins' script and Boyers' performance do most of the heavy lifting.

Those who are easily offended or don't like to be challenged by their entertainment should stay far away from Hand to God, which pulls no punches over the course of its pulse-pounding two hours. But if you're willing to be challenged or just appreciate boundary-pushing new works, the show offers plenty of food for thought. Quite frankly, Broadway could stand more shows like Hand To God, which proudly wears its lack of name talent and American origin as a badge of honor in a market flooded with star-studded revivals and London imports. You may not agree with everything the show has to say, but it is a breath of fresh air to find a Broadway show with the ambition and confidence to make such statements to begin with.