2015 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

With the unofficial start of summer this past Monday, we are now less than 2 weeks away from Broadway's biggest night: the Tony Awards! As I do every year, I am doing my best to predict who will come out on top during the June 7th telecast, and since I've already discussed the writing, direction, and the featured performer races, it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress categories. The pinnacle of recognition for any performer, these are inevitably some of the most hotly debated and contested races of any given season.

As always, my predictions are focused on who will win, not who is my personal favorite. If there is a major discrepancy, I will be sure to point it out, as there are all sorts of factors that can influence someone's Tony chances besides the quality of their work. So without further ado, let's dive into the Best Actor races to see who will get to add a shiny new award to their mantel next Sunday.

Best Actor in a Play

Alex Sharp hadn't even officially graduated from the Julliard Drama School when he was cast in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, and now he is one of the front runners for Best Actor in a Play.

Nominees: Steven Boyer, Hand to God; Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man; Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Bill Nighy, Skylight; Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Heading into awards season, this appeared to be the most competitive of all the acting categories, so I'm surprised to see only five nominees here despite plenty of deserving candidates. It's difficult to argue against any of these gentlemen, who all received universally good reviews and a few outright raves. Even Bradley Cooper, who would normally be at a disadvantage as the only nominee not currently performing on Broadway, remains a legitimate contender for the title.

The two names I would be most surprised to hear called on Tony Sunday are Ben Miles and Bill Nighy, but that doesn't mean either can be totally discounted. Miles is the central figure in the much lauded Wolf Hall double bill, but the excitement for that show seems to be focused on the production as a whole rather than any particular member of its sprawling ensemble. And while Nighy has been roundly praised for his work in Skylight, the general feeling towards that revival seems to be an intellectual respect rather than emotional excitement; the play may be a little too highbrow to get much attention in a season with so many electrifying performances. And while the aforementioned Cooper definitely has a shot, I do think the fact that The Elephant Man closed month ago will ultimately keep him from claiming victory.

Which leaves us with Steven Boyer and Alex Sharp, two unknowns giving perhaps the most exciting performances of the season. Boyer's work in Hand to God is mindblowingly good, a masterclass of physicality that allows the psychotic hand puppet Tyrone to emerge as one of the breakout characters of the season. The fact that Boyer manages to balance Tyrone's unfiltered id with host Jason's shy, soft-spoken manner is a jaw-dropping accomplishment that in my opinion is more than Tony worthy. That said, I think voters will go with Sharp's deeply felt portrayal of an autistic teen in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, as the recent Julliard grad anchors that dazzling play with a heart and gravitas that keeps the impressive production design from overwhelming the narrative. But I'm still rooting for Boyer, especially if it means the foul-mouthed Tyrone makes an appearance on the Tony telecast.

Will Win: Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Should Win: Steven Boyer, Hand to God

Best Actor in a Musical

Michael Cerveris gives what he describes as his most emotionally draining performance to date in Fun Home, the Pulitzer Prize finalist transfer from the acclaimed Public Theatre.

Nominees: Michael Cervaris, Fun Home; Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris; Brian d'Arcy James, Something Rotten!; Ken Watanabe, The King and I; Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

This category is an exciting mix of established and emerging talent, with over half the nominees competing for their first ever Tony Award; Robert Fairchild and Ken Watanabe even have the added excitement of being nominated for their Broadway debuts. The five nominees are also all currently performing on Broadway, which makes this as close to a fair fight as we're ever going to get when it comes to the Tonys.

As much as I adored Tony Yazbeck's work in On the Town, I just don't think the triple threat can compete with some of the showier performances in this category. Robert Fairchild received a nice set of reviews, with everyone agreeing the NY City Ballet principal is a naturally talented actor/singer in addition to his unrivaled dancing abilities. That said, I'm not sure the Broadway community is quite ready to award a newcomer the industry's highest honor. And while I was highly impressed with Ken Watanabe's utterly charming work in The King and I, enough people had trouble understanding the Japanese-born actor's accent that he faces an uphill battle in order to win this race.

Brian d'Arcy James is such an established talent in the theatrical community that it is easy to forget the golden-voiced character actor has yet to win a Tony Award. James definitely anchors Something Rotten! with a performance that is funny, sincere, and more than accommodating to his scenery chewing costars, making him a major contender for this award. But previous Tony-winner Michael Cerveris completely disappears inside the nebbish, deeply conflicted Bruce Bechdel in Fun Home, and not just because he is nearly unrecognizable in Paul Huntley's 1970's period wig. Cerveris is giving an actor's performance, layered and nuanced and emotionally vulnerable, all the things you think of when you imagine award winning work. Lisa Kron's book and Jeanine Tesori's score also give Cerveris more to play than any of the other nominees, which makes Cerveris the front-runner and likely winner.

Will & Should Win: Michael Cerveris, Fun Home


Check back on Monday for my predictions on what is probably the most closely watched, hotly debated race of the entire season: Best Actress in a Musical. In the meantime, get caught up on all my previous Tony coverage below:

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part II (Best Actor)

In honor of the impending announcement of the 2015 Tony Award nominees, I am continuing my comprehensive examination of the likely candidates in each of the Big 12 categories, providing my best educated guesses as to which performers and productions will be nominated for Broadway's highest honor. This year the acting races are extra tricky to predict, thanks to a recent rule change that allows anywhere between five and seven nominees in each of the performance categories. Since the only way to increase a category's size is through a tie, I doubt we'll see seven honorees across the board, but there will certainly be a least a few six and seven way races.

I'll do my best to predict not only who will wind up on the Tony ballot but how many slots each category will have, based on a combination of first hand experience, industry buzz, and past Tony voting trends. And because the nominations committee can always be counted on for a shocker or two, I will also nominate one wildcard performance in each acting category, indicating the person I think have the best chance of unseating one of my official nominees (or forcing a category expansion if I haven't predicted a maximum seven performers). We'll start with the men, including perhaps the most competitive race of the entire season.


Best Actor in a Play

Alex Sharp's phenomenal Broadway debut in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time is the stuff legends are made of.

If any category is going to make it to seven nominees it will be this one, given both the sheer number and quality of the eligible performances. The three gentlemen I'd consider locks are Bradley Cooper, Alexander Sharp, and Steven Boyer. Cooper turned The Elephant Man into arguably *the* hottest ticket of the season thanks to his critically acclaimed performance as the disfigured title character, and he did it all without the aid of makeup or prostheses . Recent Julliard grad Sharp is making one of the most jaw dropping Broadway debuts in years as the autistic teen at the center of the fantastic Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time (a production sure to do well at this year's ceremony), and until very recently I would have considered him the man to beat. But then Steven Boyer came along with his mind boggling performance in Hand to God, turning a foul-mouthed sock puppet named Tyrone into the uncontested star of that production while simultaneously inhabiting the opposite end of the emotional spectrum as the unwilling teen host of Tyrone's antics.

Not a lock but still strong possibilities are Hollywood stars Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhaal. Perennial Broadway favorite Jackman gave what many considered his finest stage performance in Jez Butterworth's The River, although the play itself proved off-putting to many members of the theatrical community. Gyllenhaal made his long anticipated Broadway debut in Manhattan Theatre Club's surprise hit Constellations, a two-hander that gave the Oscar-nominated actor plenty of time to shine. Another screen actor who drew rave reviews this season is Skylight's Bill Nighy, who will almost certainly be among this year's nominees. And Ben Miles' turn as political schemer Thomas Cromwell in the Royal Shakespeare Company's acclaimed Wolf Hall double bill certainly puts him in the mix as well.

Should all of the above gentlemen be nominated, that already puts us at the maximum seven nominees without even discussing several other worthy contenders. Nathan Lane is a consummate professional and one of our finest character actors, although past years have shown the committee is not above benching the two-time Tony-winner should his chosen vehicle not be deemed up to snuff (and It's Only a Play was unfortunately not up to snuff, no matter how good Lane may have been). Larry David may also find himself in contention for essentially playing himself in Fish in the Dark, as an acting nomination would be a way to acknowledge David for writing and staring in one of the spring's biggest hits even though the production itself is unlikely to crack the Best Play race (see: Holland Taylor's nomination for her solo show Ann back in 2013).

Nominees
Steven Boyer, Hand to God
Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Constellations
Hugh Jackman, The River
Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts I & II
Bill Nighy, Skylight
Alexander Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Wildcard
Larry David, Fish in the Dark
Bonus prediction: any wildcard will take Jackman's spot, thanks to The River's mixed critical reception


Best Actor in a Musical

Michael Cerveris is the complex, conflicted father in the new musical Fun Home, which examines cartoonist Alison Bechdel's complex relationship with her now deceased father.

This category is more up in the air than Best Actor in a Play, and depending on how frugal the committee feels may actually remain at the traditional five nominees. There aren't any performers I would consider sure things, although some actors are definitely in better positions than others. The role of Gabey in On the Town fits Tony Yazbeck like a glove, and I expect his work in that sparkling revival to net the longtime Broadway hoofer his first Tony Award nomination. I would also be very surprised if Michael Cerveris didn't make the cut for his work as the deeply conflicted Bechdel patriarch in the high-minded Fun Home, a show whose premise and pedigree simply scream "Tony Award." And as one of the hardest working, most beloved character men around, Brian d'Arcy James will almost certainly be recognized for his hilarious leading turn in Something Rotten!

After those three men, things become much uncertain. Rob McClure did exceptional work in the gone too soon Honeymoon in Vegas, but that show's troubled Broadway run and poor showing in the other industry awards calls his competitiveness into question. I personally loved Ken Watanabe's King of Siam in Lincoln Center's jaw-dropping The King and I, and he would not be the first heavily accented actor director Bartlett Sher guided to Tony glory (that would be South Pacific's Paulo Szot). Watanabe also has the benefit of starring in one of the most buzzed about productions of the spring and has a legitimate shot at awards consideration, although he has the disadvantage of competing against the memory of Yul Brynner's iconic work both onstage and in the film version.

I have a good feeling about Robert Fairchild, whose performance in the well-reviewed An American in Paris also has the benefit of exceeding admittedly modest expectations for the dancer turned leading man. But Fairchild does face stiff competition from several other performers, chief among them Finding Neverland's Matthew Morrison. I've never been a huge fan of Morrison - I would have preferred Jeremy Jordan reprise his performance from the Boston tryout - but his work in one of the spring's biggest musicals was well received and therefore puts him in contention. Then again, Neverland received some of the harshest reviews of the season, and although Tony voters have gotten better about judging each element of a show on its individual merits that dislike could hold Morrison back. And by virtue of being Roger Rees, The Visit's leading man is also someone who deserves at least a mention.

Nominees
Michael Cerveris, Fun Home
Brian d'Arcy James, Something Rotten!
Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris
Matthew Morrison, Finding Neverland
Ken Watanabe, The King and I
Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

Wildcard
Rob McClure, Honeymoon in Vegas


That's all I have to say (which is admittedly quite a lot) about this year's leading actors. Check back tomorrow for an equally in depth analysis of the Best Actress races, and keep an eye on this blog throughout the weekend for even more Tony predictions! In the meantime, you can catch up on my previous coverage of this year's races below:

Tony Rule Change
2015 Best Production Predictions

Shocking, Profane, and Just What Broadway Needs?

Review: Hand to God

Steven Boyer as Jason (l) and Tyrone (r), the stars of the provocative new play Hand to God.

There's been little on contemporary Broadway to prepare audiences for the pitch black comedy Hand to God, a provocative indictment of religion and faith currently drawing both hearty guffaws and shocked gasps at the Booth Theatre. Sure, Avenue Q tackled the "foul mouthed puppets" schtick first, but despite that Tony-winning musical's abundance of four letter words its characters lacked the viciousness and anger of Tyrone, the profanity prone sock puppet at this play's center. Written by Broadway newcomer Robert Askins, Hand to God is one of the most brazen, boundary pushing, and thoroughly unpredictable new works to grace the Great White Way in some time. These characteristics prove to be both assets and weaknesses during the show's lighting fast two hour runtime, and even if you don't agree with or even like the play, you certainly can't accuse Askins and company of playing it safe.

Set in the small town of Cypress, Texas (Askins' actual hometown), Hand to God introduces us to Jason, a shy and awkward young man who has been coerced by his mother Margery into joining her Christian Puppet Ministry. Puppet practice seems to be one of the few things that brings Jason anything resembling joy, as he struggles with his awkwardness around girls, the school bully, and a very complicated relationship with his recently widowed mother. Unfortunately for Jason, his hand puppet Tyrone seems to have taken on a mind of its own, providing withering critiques of everyone in Jason's life via hilariously caustic one liners. Soon it becomes clear that Tyrone has gotten out of hand (sorry, I had to), and by intermission it's already apparent there is no line Hand to God is unwilling to cross.

Once Askins' script gets going, there's no stopping it. Events quickly spiral beyond any semblance of control, making for a thrilling roller coaster ride of a play that will quickly take you from being doubled over in laughter to physically cringing at the thought of what might happen next. There is nothing pretentious or artificial about Askins' dialogue, which perfectly captures the play's small town milieu and lends the show's characters an authenticity without which the entire enterprise would crumble. (Praise be to vocal coach Ellen Lettrich for creating one of the most convincing southern drawls this Georgia transplant has ever heard on the New York stage.)

Askins makes a lot of smart observation about human behavior and how the concepts of good and evil function in our society. Unfortunately, he bites off a bit more than he can chew, particularly when it comes to Jason's mother. Margery enters into an incredibly violent sexual relationship that has the outward appearance of rape, except no one including Margery seems all too concerned about what that suggests. If this had been a one time occurrence it would still be troubling but perhaps understandable from a playwriting perspective; however, there are two separate and lengthy instances of this not-rape, the consequences of which are never adequately addressed. They seem included solely for shock value, which is particularly disheartening when contrasted with how Tyrone's discomforting tirades force you to re-examine your own assumptions in order to understand where the play is coming from.

On a less unsettling note, the play is incredibly well acted, especially the jaw-dropping fluidity with which Steven Boyer simultaneously portrays the meek Jason and strong willed Tyrone. Boyer's mastery of his own body is so complete and specific that Jason and Tyrone truly feel like separate entities. The contrast between Jason's hunched over, closed off body language and Tyrone's upright fury while railing against his host is mind boggling, and several of the play's best scenes take place entirely between Jason and Tyrone. Boyer's commitment to his dual roles and expert puppeteering mean you must constantly remind yourself that Tyrone is not a living, breathing being. The inventive ways Boyer has Tyrone interact with the environment and other characters are both a joy to watch and absolutely terrifying (at one point, Boyer finds a way to convincingly throw himself across the room by having Tyrone hoist Jason up by his shirt collar). Boyer's is the type of performance that will be talked about for years to come, and is reason enough to justify the price of a ticket.

Geneva Carr does very strong work as Margery and almost manages to make the aforementioned rape scenes work. She provides a very compelling and believable portrait of a basically good woman handling life's trials very poorly (there is no Mother of the Year award in Margery's future), and through it all her very real yet strained love of Jason provides the play with its emotional core. Marc Kudish is in fine form in the mostly reactionary role of Pastor Greg, and Michael Oberholtzer is perfectly cast as the town bully/troubled youth Timothy. And Sarah Stiles miraculously finds a new take on the "girl next door" archetype that feels both fresh and truthful.

Beowulf Boritt's set is perfection down to the smallest detail. Everything from the specific type of plastic chair to the cloying motivational posters on the wall to the specific shade of blue-gray paint haphazardly applied over brick and mortar screams small town church, and Boritt makes clever use of rotating walls to reveal the play's other mundane but no less evocative locales. As with most contemporary-set plays, Sydney Maresca's costumes and Jason Lyons' lights don't really get the chance to go beyond their most basic functions, but both designs are still well executed and serve the piece well. Everything is competently directed by Moritz von Stuelpnagel, who smartly lets Askins' script and Boyers' performance do most of the heavy lifting.

Those who are easily offended or don't like to be challenged by their entertainment should stay far away from Hand to God, which pulls no punches over the course of its pulse-pounding two hours. But if you're willing to be challenged or just appreciate boundary-pushing new works, the show offers plenty of food for thought. Quite frankly, Broadway could stand more shows like Hand To God, which proudly wears its lack of name talent and American origin as a badge of honor in a market flooded with star-studded revivals and London imports. You may not agree with everything the show has to say, but it is a breath of fresh air to find a Broadway show with the ambition and confidence to make such statements to begin with.