2018 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

We are now less than 2 weeks away from the 2018 Tony Awards, and speculation about who will win Broadway's highest honor on June 10th continues to intensify, including here at Broadway, Etc. After making predictions about the Featured Actor and Actress races, its time to move on to the Leading categories, where I will be predicting who will win as well as pointed out who most deserves it. Read on for more!

Best Actor in a Play

Andrew Garfield (left) as Prior Walter and Nathan Stewart-Jarrett as Belize in Angels in America.

Nominees: Andrew Garfield, Angels in America; Tom Hollander, Travesties; Jamie Parker, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Mark Rylance, Farinelli and the King; Denzel Washington, The Iceman Cometh

As with Best Featured Actress in a play, this category is mostly made up of Brits from transferred productions. Tom Hollander seems like the longest shot to win here, as Travesties just doesn't have the awards momentum to overtake the other, more lauded productions represented here. Meanwhile Mark Rylance has never gone through a Tony season without a win (he wasn't nominated for La Bete but won for Jerusalem that same season, and won one of two Tonys he was nominated for in 2014), but this doesn't feel like his year, and honestly he's probably busier campaigning for Farinelli and the King to win Best Play so his wife, the play's author, can experience Tony glory.

Which leaves us with Jamie Parker, Andrew Garfield, and Denzel Washington. Parker seemed like the man to beat heading into this season, before the love for Angels in America somewhat surprisingly surpassed the excitement about Harry Potter and the Cursed Child. Parker certainly isn't down for the count, but his path to Tony gold is a lot harder thanks to an abundance of love for the revival of Tony Kushner's two-part epic. Angels is certainly the more "serious" of the two works, which fairly or not gives Andrew Garfield the edge. But Washington is a dark horse for The Iceman Cometh, a production that pleasantly surprised a lot of critics and provides the Tony and Oscar winner with quite the showcase scene in the final act. I still expect Garfield to win, but I wouldn't be overly surprised to see Parker or Washington sneak through in an upset.

Will Win: Andrew Garfield, Angels in America
Should Win: Abstain

Best Actor in a Musical

Joshua Henry as Billy Bigelow in Carousel.

Nominees: Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady; Joshua Henry, Carousel; Tony Shalhoub, The Band's Visit; Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants

There were only 5 eligible performances in this category, a byproduct of it being a weaker year for musicals in general and a welcomed increase in musicals centered around women; 7 of this year's musicals have female leads or co-leads (a couple even feature 2 women sharing the spotlight with all men relegated to supporting roles). That said, the lack of quantity is certainly compensated for by an abundance of quality, with some truly excellent talent on display here. I can't imagine Tony Shalhoub actually winning for The Band's Visit - very much an ensemble show where his leading man status feels like a courtesy extended due to his fame - but he's certainly deserving of a nomination.

I'm not sure what to make of Ethan Slater's chances playing the title character of SpongeBob SquarePants. On the one hand, the young actor is beyond charismatic in his Broadway debut, so effortlessly embodying the eternally optimistic sea sponge that I have trouble imagining anyone else in the role. He has also already racked up Theatre World and Outer Critics' Circle Awards for his performance, so only a fool would count him out of the running (not to mention the Tonys love a Cinderella story). But at the same time, as great as Slater is, I'm not convinced that he's the best of the four nominated actors, or even the runner up.

Joshua Henry and Harry Hadden-Paton both take already great, award-worthy roles and run with them, exceeding expectations in two career milestone performances. Both also succeed in taking characters with extreme cases of toxic masculinity and making them both relatable and even empathetic for audiences hyper aware of how horribly sexist traditional male/female gender dynamics are. And no actor, male or female, tackled a role more closely associated with a specific performer than Hadden-Paton, who successfully makes My Fair Lady's caustic Henry Higgins his own in the wake of Rex Harrison's legendary, Oscar- and Tony-winning performance.

If I were voting, I'd probably choose Hadden-Paton, who I thought was perfection in a near perfect production. But Henry is offering up one of the best, if not the best, sung renditions of Carousel Broadway has ever seen. His "Soliloquy" is the musical highlight of the season, thanks both to his vocal prowess and his stellar acting ability, traits which carry through the entirety of his performance. Henry's just *feels* like a Tony-winning performance, thrillingly sung and expertly acted, and after two prior nominations it looks like the third time will be the charm for this consistently excellent performer.

Will Win: Joshua Henry, Carousel
Should Win: Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady (just barely edging out Henry)



Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Book and Score
Direction and Choreography
Featured Actor
Featured Actress

2017 Tony Award Predictions: Best Actor

The 2017 Tony Awards are less than a week away, so now it's time for my annual Tony predictions to start tackling the biggest races of the night. Although a Tony win in any category is of course a monumental achievement, it is the Lead Actor/Actress and production awards that carry the most weight with ticket buyers. As always, I will be using a combination of personal opinion, critical consensus, and industry buzz to determine the person most *likely* to win, even if they aren't necessarily the most deserving.

So without further ado, let's dive into the Best Actor races!

Best Actor in a Play

Kevin Kline and Cobie Smulders in Present Laughter.

Nominees: Denis Arndt, Heisenberg; Chris Cooper, A Doll's House, Part 2; Corey Hawkins, Six Degrees of Separation; Kevin Kline, Present Laughter; Jefferson Mays, Oslo

Of the four Lead Performer races, this is probably the least interesting. While all the men in this category are undeniably talented, none of the performances have really captured the imagination of the Broadway community. Even Kevin Kline, one of the most respected stage and film stars of his generation, hasn't set tongues wagging the way he was expected too. His leading man turn in Present Laughter was universally liked by the critics, but no one is calling it a must see like they are several other high profile star turns this season. This may be partially due to audience fatigue with his chosen vehicle, as the Noel Coward comedy is currently enjoying it's sixth Broadway mounting, hot on the heels of the 2010 production starring Victor Garber.

Still, I can't reasonably envision anyone else winning this award. Denis Arndt's performance in Heisenberg was so long ago that it feels like it belongs in a different season. Chris Cooper seems to have been elevated by the love of his female costars in A Doll's House, Part 2, as his inclusion in this category raised more than a few eyebrows on Tony Tuesday. Six Degrees of Separation hasn't connected with critics or audiences the way I would have expected, which makes Corey Hawkins' path to victory that much more of an uphill battle. There's an outside chance Oslo's Jefferson Mays scores an upset, although I'm not betting on it.

Will Win: Kevin Kline, Present Laughter
Should Win: Abstain

Best Actor in a Musical

Ben Platt as the title character in Dear Evan Hansen.

Nominees: Christian Borle, Falsettos; Josh Groban, Natasha, Pierre, & The Great Comet of 1812; Andy Karl, Groundhog Day; David Hyde Pierce, Hello, Dolly!; Ben Platt, Dear Evan Hansen

No need to mince words here; this award is Ben Platt's, and has been since Dear Evan Hansen's Off-Broadway bow last spring. Platt's revelatory performance as the titular troubled teen is the stuff of theatrical legend, a searing star turn that is stunning in both it's emotional breadth and raw vulnerability. Platt has also figured out the nifty trick of singing like a dream while full-on ugly crying; his performance of "Words Fail" is Tony worthy on its own, and that is merely the culmination of a two hour acting marathon he somehow has the stamina to perform eight times a week. And on top of all that, he is also genuinely hilarious, creating a convincingly quirky character that deftly avoids the cheap laughs and occasional hamminess of his previous Broadway outing in The Book of Mormon. In short, Platt does it all over the course of Evan Hansen's runtime, and such breadth and depth will surely be rewarded by Tony voters.

It's cute that some prognosticators are pretending that Andy Karl has a chance at upsetting Platt, but I honestly think they are just trying to create drama in what is a pretty straightforward race. Karl is quite charming in Groundhog Day, but I wouldn't call it his best work, let alone the best musical performance of the year. Both Josh Groban and Christian Borle feel like they were nominated because they played roles that are supposed to be Tony-worthy rather than fully earning their nominations, and in a different season might have been left out of this race. At the same time it must be said Groban acquits himself quite well in his Broadway debut, and Borle's work in Falsettos is the least obnoxious thing he's done in a very long time. And  while David Hyde Pierce is reliably great as the well known half-a-millionaire Horace Vandergelder in Hello, Dolly!, no amount of mutton chops and curmudgeonly Yonkers attitude will let the veteran character actor unseat Platt.

Will and Should Win: Ben Platt, Dear Evan Hansen

Check back throughout the week for my predictions of the Best Actress, Revival, Play, and Musical categories, and you can catch up on the rest of the my Tony coverage below:

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress

2017 Tony Nomination Predictions: Part II

With the industry anxiously awaiting the announcement of this year's Tony nominees on Tuesday, it is once again time for me to put on my prognosticator's hat and predict who will be among the lucky crop of nominees. I've already weighed in on the production categories, so now it's time to look at individual performances.

As always, these predictions represent my best synthesis of personal opinion, critical acclaim, and Tony trends. There is always the possibility an extremely close vote could cause certain categories to expand beyond the traditional 5 nominees, and although I don't expect that to happen I will still be picking a Wildcard performer in each race. The Wildcard is the person I think the most likely to force a category expansion, or unseat one of my official picks. Now on with the show!

Best Actor in a Musical

Ben Platt as the title character in Dear Evan Hansen.

Unlike the wide open production races, there is a definite front runner in this race, and his name is Ben Platt. Best Actor in a Musical has been Platt's award to lose ever since Dear Evan Hansen burst onto the scene last fall, and the young actor deserves every bit of praise he has received. His performance as the awkward, depressed title character is revelatory, a perfect mixture of comedy and pathos that is gorgeously sung and heartrendingly acted.

The only person who offers any kind of threat to Platt is Groundhog Day's Andy Karl, fresh off an Olivier Award win for the same role and much in the news of late due to an unfortunate onstage injury. Karl is quite good as the acerbic Phil Connors, his innate likability helping get the audience on Phil's side long before the events of the show turn him into a decent human being. The performance isn't quite in the same league as Platt's (no leading man is this year), but it is more than enough to ensure the beloved Broadway stalwart a nomination.

The performers rounding out this category aren't as obvious, but I'm reasonably confident Josh Groban will find himself Tony-nominated for his Broadway debut in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812. I also think Jon Jon Briones will be nominated for his seductively charismatic work as Miss Saigon's Engineer; if a whitewashing controversy couldn't stop original Engineer Jonathan Pryce from winning a Tony, having an equally good and ethnically appropriate actor has to be good for at least a nomination. And as much as I personally dislike Christian Borle's acting, the two-time Tony-winner will probably be nominated for one of his two qualifying roles this year, hopefully the more subdued and less hammy Falsettos. 

As for dark horses, I would keep my eye on A Bronx Tale's Nick Cordero, a previous nominee for his work in the short lived Bullets Over Broadway, and one should never rule out David Hyde Pierce, who is playing opposite Bette Midler in one of the buzziest shows of the season. (Remember, Jake Gyllenhaal is not eligible as the producers of Sunday in the Park with George withdrew the show from Tony consideration.)

Nominees: Christian Borle, Falsettos; Jon Jon Briones, Miss Saigon; Josh Groban, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812; Andy Karl, Groundhog Day; Ben Platt, Dear Evan Hansen
Wildcard: Nick Cordero, A Bronx Tale

Best Actor in a Play

Kevin Kline in Present Laughter.

This category is almost completely wide open, as no play's leading actor has broken out in the way that nets you awards consideration. The one exception is Kevin Kline, who is a lock for his expert comedic skills in the latest revival of Present Laughter. The question is who will join him.

Significant Other provided quite the meaty role for Gideon Glick as a gay millennial struggling with existential angst as he loses his best friends to their romantic partners. Despite the play's premature closing, I suspect Glick will be remembered by the nominating committee. I also have to imagine that Academy Award-nominee Mark Ruffalo will be nominated for his work in Roundabout Theatre Company's well-liked revival of Arthur Miller's The Price. And while some found The Present off-putting, its leading man Richard Roxburgh did fine work in a very tricky part.

Rounding out the category is most likely Denis Arndt, the septuagenarian actor who made his Broadway debut this past fall opposite Mary-Louise Parker in Heisenberg. But at the same time, I have to believe past Tony-winner Jefferson Mays is at least in contention for his work in Oslo, although that show has struggled to build much awards momentum despite a clutch of positive reviews. And a nomination for Simon McBurney would be a way for Tony voters to recognize the actor/director/writer for his unique (and well reviewed) solo show The Encounter without having to nominate the play itself.

Nominees: Denis Arndt, Heisenberge; Gideon Glick, Significant Other; Kevin Kline, Present Laughter; Richard Roxburgh, The Present; Mark Ruffalo, The Price
Wildcard: Simon McBurney, The Encounter

Best Actress in a Musical

Bette Midler as the title character in Hello, Dolly!

Yet again, this season brought us some sensational leading lady performances in an eclectic array of musicals. The name currently on everyone's lips is Bette Midler for headlining the smash hit revival of Hello, Dolly! Composer Jerry Herman reportedly turned down multiple offers to revive the show due to his dissatisfaction with the actresses under consideration for the title role, but was instantly sold when the Divine Miss M was mentioned. As Midler's sensational star turn has been greeted with ecstatic reviews, including a rave in The New York Times the likes of which head critic Ben Brantley rarely gives, it appears Herman's instincts were correct. Midler is a guaranteed nominee and probable winner, although she does face some stiff competition.

While War Paint's chances of being nominated in the production and writing categories are shaky, there's absolutely no way Patti LuPone and Christine Ebersole miss out on Best Actress nods. Excluding either would be the very definition of a snub. And Anastasia's leading lady Christy Altomare has received both an Outer Critic's Circle and Drama Desk nomination this week, making it extremely likely that Tony voters will follow suit. And while she has failed to make an appearance among the nominees in any of the guild awards, I really have trouble imagining Miss Saigon's extraordinary Eva Noblezada being left out on Tony Tuesday.

Luckily for all of the above performers, Glenn Close is not eligible for a Tony this year, as she already won one for her absolutely transcendent Norma Desmond in Sunset Boulevard when the show originally premiered. And Stephanie J. Block (Falsettos), Rachel Bay Jones (Dear Evan Hansen), and Jennifer Laura Thompson (Dear Evan Hansen) have all been deemed supporting actresses, so look for them to make an appearance in that category. If anyone is going to unseat one of the above performers, it's going to be two-time nominee Laura Osnes for the late season entry Bandstand.

Nominees: Christy Altomare, Anastasia; Christine Ebersole, War Paint; Patti LuPone, War Paint; Bette Midler, Hello, Dolly!; Eva Noblezada, Miss Saigon
Wildcard: Laura Osnes, Bandstand

Best Actress in a Play

Laura Linney (left) and Cynthia Nixon in The Little Foxes.

This category is the most exciting it's been in years, thanks to a welcome increase in female fronted plays. The always excellent Allison Janney seems like a shoe-in for her work in Six Degrees of Separation. Similarly, it appears A Doll's House: Part 2 will give Tony favorite Laurie Metcalf another chance to win the elusive statuette, even as it struggles to catch on at the box office. And let's not forget Heisenberg's Mary-Louise Parker, who scored across the board raves for her complex portrayal of a possibly unstable woman in Simon Stephens' two-hander.

After that, the rest of the nominations could go several ways. Laura Linney has received both Drama Desk and Outer Critic's Circle nods for her dual roles in Manhattan Theatre Club's The Little Foxes, which makes a Tony nod feel almost inevitable (her costar Cynthia Nixon, who alternates in the same roles as Linney, has oddly been ruled a supporting actress). Cate Blanchett and Sally Field are also in the mix, as even though their respective vehicles The Present and The Glass Menagerie proved to be divisive productions, both actresses scored strong reviews for their individual contributions. While Field did well with the guilds, I actually think Blanchett has the better chance at a Tony nod, as she is not competing against the memory of a very recent, well loved production of the same play the way Field is.

Nominees: Cate Blanchett, The Present; Allison Janney, Six Degrees of Separation; Laura Linney, The Little Foxes; Laurie Metcalf, A Doll's House: Part 2; Mary-Louise Parker, Heisenberg
Wildcard: Sally Field, The Glass Menagerie


And there you have my 2017 Tony nominee predictions. Due to a lack of time and overwhelming number of options I will not be predicting the supporting actor and actress nominees this year, but will predict the winners once we know who the contenders are. Until Tuesday, feel free to leave any thoughts you might have in the comments, and check back once the nominees are announced to find out my thoughts!

Extremely Early 2017 Tony Predictions: Part II

As January turns to February, we are experiencing the proverbial calm before the storm. The spring Broadway season swings into gear next month, before the floodgates truly open in March and April. There are a mind boggling 22 productions slated to open between now and the Tony eligibility cutoff date, featuring a proliferation of both known and up and coming talent which makes my yearly tradition of assessing which fall performers are well-positioned for Tony recognition that much harder.

As history has repeatedly shown, the Tony Awards tend to favor currently running and recently premiered productions (hence the glut of scheduled spring openings). While a decent performance in a well-reviewed spring show can be enough to snag a nomination, actors must truly impress critics and Tony voters if they hope to be remembered for their work in a fall show. On the other hand, should the spring shows prove disappointing, a solid performance in a fondly remembered fall production suddenly looks very strong by comparison. It's all a carefully weighted guessing game, so read on of my extremely early - and subject to change - predictions for the major acting races. (You can catch up on my predictions about potential Tony-nominated productions here).

Best Actor in a Play

Denis Arndt and Mary-Louise Parker in Heisenberg.

While there are clear critical favorites among the fall musicals (Falsettos, Dear Evan Hansen, and Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812), the already opened plays are more evenly matched with no obvious frontrunners. For Best Actor in a Play, I think the three gentlemen to keep your eye on are Heisenberg's Denis Arndt, The Encounter's Simon McBurney, and The Present's Richard Roxburgh. Arndt's performance seems like the safest bet given the actor driven nature of Heisenberg, but a nod for McBurney would be a way to honor the entirety of his work on the well-reviewed The Encounter (he also wrote and directed the piece) which seems unlikely to be remembered elsewhere. And Roxburgh can't be ruled out for his excellent work in a play that has been marketed on Cate Blanchett's appeal but ultimately centers around Roxburgh's rakish intellectual.

And then there's John Slattery, whose performance in The Front Page is a bit of a wildcard. Slattery is the only member of the starry ensemble comedy deemed eligible in the Lead Actor category, and the play was certainly well liked, ending up on several Best of 2016 lists. But Slattery was essentially overshadowed in the press by his costar Nathan Lane, despite Lane not making his first appearance until almost an hour into the show (Lane seems like an almost guaranteed Featured Actor nominee). I would expect two of these four men to make the cut, but Slattery feels like the longest shot at the moment.

Best Actor in a Musical

Ben Platt as the title character in Dear Evan Hansen.

There is a clear frontrunner in this category, not just for a nomination but for the eventual trophy. Ben Platt's turn as the title character in Dear Evan Hansen has been the talk of the fall season, a hugely admired performance anchoring a hugely admired show. The buzz surrounding him feels very similar to the buzz which greeted Cynthia Erivo upon her Broadway debut last season, and that worked out very well for the Color Purple star. There's definitely competition on the horizon - Jake Gyllenhaal in Sunday in the Park with George and Andy Karl in Groundhog Day immediately spring to mind, and as much as I'm not looking forward to his performance in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory one cannot deny the Tony's love of Christian Borle - but as of this moment, the Best Actor statue is Platt's to lose.

A case can definitely be made for Josh Groban to work his way into this category, with the recording star doing a very admirable job of embodying the withdrawn Pierre in The Great Comet. Holiday Inn's Bryce Pinkham had more to do in his show than Groban, and one should never underestimate how difficult it is to anchor one of those old-fashioned song and dance spectacles, but Pinkham's inclusion here feels like a long shot. And there's always the possibility Tony voters will decide they like Christian Borle's more measured work in Falsettos than his presumed scenery chewing in Charlie and nominated the former performance instead. Groban still feels like the most likely to be in consideration though, after the surefire Platt.

Best Actress in a Play

Oscar-winner Cate Blanchett and Richard Roxburgh in The Present.

Of the fall actresses, the one I'd most expect to see remembered with a Tony nomination is Mary-Louise Parker for Heisenberg. The Tony-winning actress received across the board raves for her complex, nuanced performance in the two character drama, and there aren't enough female-driven plays on the horizon to put her nomination in jeopardy (unless the shows without name stars over deliver on the acting front). I also think the committee will reward Cate Blanchett's long awaited Broadway debut with a Tony nomination as a way to encourage the actress to come back sooner rather than later, hopefully in a show that makes better use of her talent than the occasionally obtuse The Present. That said, even though she has been deemed a lead you could convincingly argue that Blanchett's character is really a supporting one, which could hurt her chances. An unexpectedly weak showing from the spring actresses could also open up a slot for Janet McTeer's scheming Marquis de Merteuil in Les Liaisons Dangereuses, although it is a long shot.

Best Actress in a Musical

Denee Benton in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812.

I've saved this category for last because it is by far the most competitive; in fact, this is shaping up to be a Tony race for the record books. Among the major names starring in spring musicals: Patti LuPone and Christine Ebersole in War Paint; Bette Midler in arguably the most anticipated musical of the season, Hello, Dolly!; Phillipa Soo in the musical adaptation of Amelie; and Annaleigh Ashford in Sunday in the Park with George. (Glenn Close is not eligible for her starring role in Sunset Boulevard, having previously won the Tony for the same role in 1995.) There's also two-time nominee Laura Osnes in the new musical Bandstand, newcomer Eva Noblezada in Miss Saigon (the role which made Lea Salonga a star), and rumblings of a very strong performance from Jenn Colella in the new musical Come From Away (assuming she is deemed a lead actress and not supporting).

In short, there's a lot of competition out there, and if it is as strong as everyone assumes that doesn't bode well for the fall performers. Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812's Denee Benton seems the most likely to break into the race, assuming support for the boundary pushing musical remains as strong as when it initially premiered. Benton is also one of the only women currently eligible for this award; Stephanie J Block's showstopping performance in Falsettos has been deemed a supporting turn, as has Rachel Bay Jones' heartbreaking work in Dear Evan Hansen (I expect both to be nominated for Best Featured Actress). Which leaves Benton as the sole woman standing, and even her position is precarious barring a category expansion.


And those are my current predictions for the 2017 Tony Award nominees! This is obviously all subject to change based on the spring season, and I will certainly be revisiting this topic prior to the official nominations being announced on May 2nd. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments!

2016 Tony Award Predictions: Best Actor

The Tony Awards are less than a week away, so it's time to really ramp up our prediction articles here at Broadway, Etc. The remaining categories are arguably the most prestigious, with the Best Actor/Actress and production categories having the greatest effect on both individual shows and entire careers. Winning a Tony in one of the leading performance categories definitely opens up a host of career opportunities, and can turn a relative unknown into a bankable star capable of opening a big budget production on name recognition alone.

Although etiquette typically dictates "ladies first," we're actually going to start with the Best Actor candidates, as the two Best Actress categories tend to be more eagerly anticipated by the theatrical community. Which takes nothing away from the incredible achievements of this year's nominated men, who have delivered some truly stunning performances over the past 12 months. As always, I will use a combination of personal observation and gut feeling to determine the most likely winner, and if that person doesn't align with who I would personally vote for I will make sure to point it out in my analysis.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Actor in a Play

Frank Langella in Manhattan Theatre Club's production of The Father

Nominees: Gabriel Bryne, Long Day's Journey Into Night; Jeff Daniels, Blackbird; Frank Langella, The Father; Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III; Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge

The further into awards season we get, the more Frank Langella appears to have a lock on this award. The three-time Tony-winner has received virtually every Best Actor award in existence for his universally praised performance as an aging man dealing with the onset of dementia, a feat even more impressive when you consider that many critics weren't exactly enthralled with The Father as a play. 

Looking at the rest of the nominees, I don't really see any viable challenges. Tim Pigott-Smith's acclaimed turn in the title role of King Charles III seems like ages ago, as the show closed before most of the other nominated productions even opened. Jeff Daniels certainly earned his share of critical accolades for bringing a large measure of humanity to a former child molester, but the overriding feeling towards Blackbird seems to be one of respect rather than outright enjoyment. When push comes to shove, most Tony voters go with the show/performance that excites them the most, something that rarely comes from a production they don't feel passionately about. Gabriel Bryne does brilliantly subtle work as patriarch James Tyrone in Long Day's Journey Into Night, but has been largely overshadowed in people's minds by costar Jessica Lange. If anyone is going to give Langella a run for his money, it's Mark Strong for the critically beloved A View from the Bridge, but that show is probably too long gone for Strong to be truly competitive.

Will & Should Win: Frank Langella, The Father

Best Actor in a Musical

Aaron Burr, sir: Leslie Odom, Jr. in Hamilton.

Nominees: Alex Brightman, School of Rock; Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof; Zachary Levi, She Loves Me; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton; Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

This is actually one of the most competitive, unpredictable races of the night. I feel fairly confident in ruling out first-time nominee Alex Brightman, mostly due to the strength of his competition rather than any fault in the actor's by all accounts fantastic performance. And while I and many others absolutely *adored* Zachary Levi's pitch perfect work in Roundabout's fantastic She Loves Me revival, the TV star turned Tony Award-nominee also feels like an extreme long shot to win.

Many people seem to think being the creative genius behind this season's presumptive Best Musical Hamilton makes Lin-Manuel Miranda likely to win this award, but I actually think it hurts his chances at a Best Actor victory. Tony voters know he will be walking away with several writing awards Sunday night, and therefore will likely opt to spread the wealth around in this category. Also, with all due respect to Miranda, his is a very good performance competing against several extraordinary ones, and if he were to win here it would be a case of hype overriding merit.

I think this race will ultimately boil down to Leslie Odom, Jr.'s fascinating Aaron Burr versus Danny Burstein's transfixing Tevye. Burstein has been a staple of the Broadway community and the Tony Awards for the better part of a decade, with many (myself included) feeling he is long overdue for his first win after five previous nominations. Six proved to be the magic number for Kelli O'Hara, who finally won the Tony for her work in The King and I last year, and I can easily see a similar outcome here (complete with the accompanying standing ovation). Yet Leslie Odom, Jr. is delivering a star making performance in megahit Hamilton, and the momentum behind that show cannot be underestimated. Further helping Odom, Jr.'s case is the fact that Hamilton is much more universally beloved than the latest incarnation of Fiddler, which despite strong critical notices doesn't seem to inspire much passion in anyone describing it.

My gut says that Odom, Jr. just barely wins this award, but my gut also said Kristin Chenoweth would win last year. And if I'm being totally honest, I would probably vote for him too if forced to choose. Hamilton allows Odom, Jr.'s performance to be exciting in a way the somewhat staid Fiddler doesn't allow Burstein's to be, and I think that will ultimately give Odom, Jr. the edge in the night's closest race.

Will & Should Win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

Extremely Close Second: Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof

Who are you rooting for in the hotly contested Best Actor in a Musical category? Think any of the play nominees can seriously challenge Frank Langella? Let me know in the comments, and check back throughout the week for the rest of my Tony predictions. And in the meantime, catch up on my previous coverage below:

Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor 

Best Featured Actress

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part II (Best Actor/Actress)

We're only a few short days away from the announcement of the 2016 Tony nominees, and as has become tradition here at Broadway, Etc. I'm doing my best to predict who they'll be! Today we'll be discussing the starring turns from this past season most likely to compete for Broadway's highest honor, using my completely improvised combination of honest evaluation, understanding of theatre trends, and gut feelings.

This year also marks the first time the main acting categories can expand to a potential seven nominees each, provided there is a two- or three-way tie for the 5th slot. I find it highly unlikely that will happen, given the nominating committee's recent tendency towards the lowest possible number of nominees, but it is technically possible. So in each category I will be selecting wildcard picks, the performer or performers I think most likely to prompt a category expansion or unseat one of my official nominees.

So without further ado, let's get on with the show!

Best Actor in a Musical

Danny Burstein and the company of Fiddler on the Roof.

I have gone on record with my belief that Danny Burstein is one of our most gifted character actors, and the fact he has yet to win a Tony Award despite five career nominations is borderline criminal. His towering Tevye in Fiddler on the Roof will certainly net him nomination number six, and I sincerely hope this is the year he finally wins. He will surely be joined by American Psycho's Benjamin Walker, who has been roundly praised for his portrayal of serial killer Patrick Bateman and has been nominated for every other guild award thus far.

And, surprisingly enough, those are the only two actors I'm ready to call sure things in this category. Hamilton presents an interesting conundrum in that both Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom, Jr. are eligible here, and no one seems quite sure if the committee will nominate one, both, or if they will effectively cancel one another out. In recent years we've seen several pairs of male leads pitted against one another (Andrew Rannells and Josh Gad in The Book of Mormon, Stark Sands and Billy Porter in Kinky Boots, and Jefferson Mays and Bryce Pinkham in Gentleman's Guide), so I am inclined to think both men make the cut. If only one of them is nominated, my money's on Odom, Jr.; quite frankly, he's the better actor, and the nominators may decide that the book and score nominations coming Miranda's way are more than enough praise for Broadway's resident genius.

With the men of Shuffle Along all being ruled Featured rather than Leading Actors, the way seems clear for School of Rock's breakout star Alex Brightman to score his first ever Tony nomination. We also cannot rule out Zachary Levi for his utterly charming work in She Loves Me, a show quickly proving to be an awards season favorite and in my opinion one of the best productions of the season.

Nominees: 
Alex Brightman, School of Rock
Danny Burstain, Fiddler on the Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Benjamin Walker, American Psycho

Wildcard:
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me (I would love love *love* to see him make the cut)

Best Actor in a Play

Frank Langella in Manhattan Theatre Club's production of The Father.

In this category, I think the closest we have to surefire nominees are a pair of British actors who were roundly praised for their performances last fall. Tim Pigott-Smith earned across the board raves for his portrayal of the title character in King Charles III, and Mark Strong was equally lauded for his work as Eddie Carbone in the avant garde revival of A View from the Bridge. When it comes to spring shows, Broadway treasure Frank Langella seems to have a seventh career nomination coming his way for his work in The Father, with the three-time Tony-winner routinely cited as the best thing about the production.

Other strong contenders include Gabriel Byrne for his quietly devastating work in Long Day's Journey Into Night and Jeff Daniels for his harrowing portrayal of a former child molester in Blackbird. I also wouldn't rule out Jesse Tyler Ferguson's work in Fully Committed; the one man show earned fairly good reviews, and as the sole performer in the show Ferguson obviously played a major role in its success. And while I suspect the show is too long gone to be remembered come nomination time, Fool for Love's Sam Rockwell did get a great deal of praise for his work in the Sam Shepard drama.

Nominees:
Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird
Frank Langella, The Father
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge

Wildcard:
Sam Rockwell, Fool for Love

Best Actress in a Musical

Laura Benanti in Roundabout Theatre Company's revival of She Loves Me

As per usual, this is one of the most competitive categories around, although many of the nominees seem set at this point. Past winners Audra McDonald, Laura Benanti, and Jesse Mueller are virtually guaranteed nominations, with all three delivering superb performances in their respective shows. And Hamilton's Phillipa Soo, who I have been raving about since her work in Off-Broadway's Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812 a few seasons back, is doing phenomenal work as the mega-hit musical's emotional anchor; her talent combined with the massive buzz behind the show should be enough to secure her a spot among this year's nominees.

Which leaves only one guaranteed nomination spot left to be filled, and I can't imagine it going to anyone other than The Color Purple's Cynthia Erivo. The British actress is simply sensational as the put-upon Miss Celie, bringing the house down nightly with her soul-stirring rendition of the show's eleven o'clock anthem "I'm Here."

Honestly, all of these women seem like virtual locks, and I would be shocked to see any of them excluded in favor of someone else. Which is not to say there aren't other deserving nominees out there; Carmen Cusack has won herself a lot of fans with her work in the Steve Martin musical Bright Star, and Ana Villafane's spot-on channeling of a young Gloria Estefan has a lot to do with On Your Feet working as well as it does. If any of the leading performance categories were to expand beyond five nominees, it would likely be this one.

Nominees:
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple
Audra McDonald, Shuffle Along
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton

Wildcard:
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star

Best Actress in a Play

Lupita Nyong'o in Eclipsed

This is the category I have least feel for, as despite the abundance of plays this season many of them have had male leads. One play that bucked that trend is Danai Gurira's all-female Eclipsed, and I expect its Oscar-winning star Lupita Nyong'o to be among the women who hear their name called Tuesday morning. I also have a very good feeling about last year's Best Featured Actress winner Annaleigh Ashford being nominated again for her turn as the titular pooch in this season's Sylvia. And while I personally had some reservations about Jessica Lange in Long Day's Journey Into Night (specifically the way she was directed), she is the one other name I would be genuinely surprised to see excluded from the Best Actress race.

As for the other two slots, they are really up for grabs. Past Best Actress winners Nina Arianda and Linda Lavin are certainly in contention for their work in Fool for Love and Our Mother's Brief Affair respectively. I would give the edge to Arianda, as while both shows have been closed for a while she has managed to at least get a couple of theatre guild nominations this season, while Lavin has been passed over. There's also Michelle Williams to consider for her work in Blackbird, and the very slight chance that Laurie Metcalfe is remembered for doing her best to save the critically panned Misery from itself.

Nominees:
Nina Arianda, Fool for Love
Annaleigh Ashford, Sylvia
Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed
Michelle Williams, Blackbird

Wildcard: 
Linda Lavin, Our Mother's Brief Affair


Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments. Check back Tuesday afternoon to see how well I did, and in the meantime catch up on the rest of my Tony coverage:

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

Extremely Early 2016 Tony Predictions: Part II

I love talking Tony Awards, but this year's awards offer an interesting conundrum. Many of the musical categories, which are typically my favorite to discuss and dissect, feel like a foregone conclusion thanks to the overwhelming (and deserved) critical and commercial success of Hamilton. If any show can give this musical juggernaut even a minor challenge it will be a miracle, as everyone I know expects the show to clean up at this year's ceremony.

Luckily, the acting categories are much more competitive, given the overwhelming number of positively reviewed productions from the fall. There's already enough noteworthy performances to make for some truly exciting races, and that's not even taking into account all of the yet-to-open spring shows. The one problem with many of these performances (especially the non-musical ones) is that they will be nothing but a memory by the time Tony nominations are announced in May, meaning any acting hopefuls will have to have made a major impression on the theatrical community to stay in contention. So who do I think has done just that? Find out below!

Best Actor in a Musical

Danny Burstein (left) as Tevye in Bartlett Sher's first-rate Fiddler on the Roof.

As far as I'm concerned, this award *needs* to go to Danny Burstein. He is one of the greatest character actors currently in the business, and the fact he has yet to win a Tony is one of the industry's biggest headscratchers. He will definitely get nominated for his superb Tevye in the latest Fiddler on the Roof revival, but will have to overcome some serious competition to actually win. Lin-Manuel Miranda seems destined for an acting nod for his work as the title character in Hamilton, and he will almost certainly be joined in the Lead Actor category by costar Leslie Odom, Jr. thanks to the latter's expertly nuanced portrayal of Aaron Burr.

After those three locks, things get much trickier to predict. Assuming The Color Purple's Isaiah Johnson is deemed a Lead Actor for his role as the villainous Mister, he is one to watch out for and will definitely be a part of the conversation. And many critics were mightily impressed with Alex Brightman's star turn in School of Rock, keeping his name in the mix as well. That's already enough for a full slate of Best Actor in a Musical nominees, and it doesn't even take into account the well-liked work of Austin P. McKenzie in Deaf West's Spring Awakening or any of the leading men from the spring shows. American Psycho's Benjamin Walker; Shuffle Along's Brian Stokes Mitchell, Joshua Henry, and Brandon Victor Dixon (depending on the size of their roles); and Tuck Everlasting's Andrew Keenan-Bolger are all well-respected performers who are definitely in contention, meaning this could be the first Tony race to use last year's rule change to expand past the traditional five nominees.

Best Actress in a Musical

Newcomer Cynthia Erivo in The Color Purple, making one of the most sensational Broadway debuts in years.

Here again we have a category that is already fairly competitive even without taking the spring shows into consideration. The Color Purple's Cynthia Erivo is the clear front-runner at the moment; every critic and audience member I know has been absolutely floored by her soul-stirring performance as the put-upon Celie. The other surefire nominee at this point would be Hamilton's Phillipa Soo, who I had pegged as one to watch during her Off-Broadway debut in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812. Soo's Eliza Hamilton provides the Broadway's latest blockbuster with much of its heart, and the captivating actress gets to display the kind of wide emotional range that makes a performance catnip to awards voters.

Beyond Erivo and Soo, we might not see much representation for the fall shows. I have to imagine the previous Tony-winners Audra McDonald, Jessie Mueller, and Laura Benanti will be among this year's contenders for their highly anticipated spring shows, which would give us a full slate of nominees *unless* the category expands. Should a sixth slot become available, I think On Your Feet's Ana Villafañe is the most likely to fill it thanks to her utterly charming Broadway debut. One also cannot completely rule out Lea Salonga, although the fact that Allegiance will be long gone by the time nominations are announced severely hinders her chances. At this point, my gut tells me this category will stay at five nominees, meaning Mueller or Benanti would have to severely disappoint to make room for one of the other possibilities (the idea of Audra McDonald disappointing in anything is so unlikely it isn't even worth considering).

Best Actor in a Play

Mark Strong in Lincoln Center's avant-garde production of A View from the Bridge.

Currently, there are no clear front-runners in this category, which makes the nomination slots basically up for grabs. Tim Pigott-Smith and Mark Strong were both nominated for Olivier Awards for their work in the King Charles III and A View from the Bridge respectively, and I expect them to be nominated for Tonys as well (Strong ultimately won the Olivier). Aside from them, I don't really see anyone else from the fall slate of plays making the cut. There is a slightly possibility Fool for Love's Sam Rockwell or The Gin Game's James Earl Jones get recognition for their well-reviewed work, but both shows already feel like they closed ages ago and will likely be long forgotten by the time nominations are announced. As this is another category I fully expect to remain at five nominees, I think there's enough contenders among the spring shows to keep the number of fall nominees low.

Best Actress in a Play

Annaleigh Ashford as the titular pooch in A.R. Gurney's Sylvia.

This category is certainly more competitive than Best Actor in a Play at the moment, with several well-loved actresses having already turned in some highly respected performances. Last year's Best Featured Actress winner Annaleigh Ashford will likely find herself competing in the Best Actress category this year her work in Sylvia, as she is someone who just earns better reviews each time she steps onstage. Laurie Metcalfe is probably one of the most respected actresses in the business to not have a Tony, and by all accounts she single-handedly makes Misery watchable, so I expect her to be in contention as well. And if Andrea Martin can not just get nominated but win a Tony for 10 minutes of stage time in Pippin, one has to imagine that playing the lead in Noises Off puts her in a very good position heading into Tony season. We also cannot completely rule out previous Tony winners Nina Arianda, Cecily Tyson, and Linda Lavin from consideration, although at this point all three feel like long shots. And while Kiera Knightly is generally an awards show darling, I think Therese Raquin was simply too divisive of a play to secure her a nomination.


Feel free to share your thoughts on the Lead Actor/Actress categories in the comments, and keep an eye out for the third part of this feature coming soon. In the meantime, you can always check out my previous Tony coverage by clicking on the link below:

Extremely Early 2016 Tony Award Predictions: Part I

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

With the unofficial start of summer this past Monday, we are now less than 2 weeks away from Broadway's biggest night: the Tony Awards! As I do every year, I am doing my best to predict who will come out on top during the June 7th telecast, and since I've already discussed the writing, direction, and the featured performer races, it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress categories. The pinnacle of recognition for any performer, these are inevitably some of the most hotly debated and contested races of any given season.

As always, my predictions are focused on who will win, not who is my personal favorite. If there is a major discrepancy, I will be sure to point it out, as there are all sorts of factors that can influence someone's Tony chances besides the quality of their work. So without further ado, let's dive into the Best Actor races to see who will get to add a shiny new award to their mantel next Sunday.

Best Actor in a Play

Alex Sharp hadn't even officially graduated from the Julliard Drama School when he was cast in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, and now he is one of the front runners for Best Actor in a Play.

Nominees: Steven Boyer, Hand to God; Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man; Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Bill Nighy, Skylight; Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Heading into awards season, this appeared to be the most competitive of all the acting categories, so I'm surprised to see only five nominees here despite plenty of deserving candidates. It's difficult to argue against any of these gentlemen, who all received universally good reviews and a few outright raves. Even Bradley Cooper, who would normally be at a disadvantage as the only nominee not currently performing on Broadway, remains a legitimate contender for the title.

The two names I would be most surprised to hear called on Tony Sunday are Ben Miles and Bill Nighy, but that doesn't mean either can be totally discounted. Miles is the central figure in the much lauded Wolf Hall double bill, but the excitement for that show seems to be focused on the production as a whole rather than any particular member of its sprawling ensemble. And while Nighy has been roundly praised for his work in Skylight, the general feeling towards that revival seems to be an intellectual respect rather than emotional excitement; the play may be a little too highbrow to get much attention in a season with so many electrifying performances. And while the aforementioned Cooper definitely has a shot, I do think the fact that The Elephant Man closed month ago will ultimately keep him from claiming victory.

Which leaves us with Steven Boyer and Alex Sharp, two unknowns giving perhaps the most exciting performances of the season. Boyer's work in Hand to God is mindblowingly good, a masterclass of physicality that allows the psychotic hand puppet Tyrone to emerge as one of the breakout characters of the season. The fact that Boyer manages to balance Tyrone's unfiltered id with host Jason's shy, soft-spoken manner is a jaw-dropping accomplishment that in my opinion is more than Tony worthy. That said, I think voters will go with Sharp's deeply felt portrayal of an autistic teen in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, as the recent Julliard grad anchors that dazzling play with a heart and gravitas that keeps the impressive production design from overwhelming the narrative. But I'm still rooting for Boyer, especially if it means the foul-mouthed Tyrone makes an appearance on the Tony telecast.

Will Win: Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Should Win: Steven Boyer, Hand to God

Best Actor in a Musical

Michael Cerveris gives what he describes as his most emotionally draining performance to date in Fun Home, the Pulitzer Prize finalist transfer from the acclaimed Public Theatre.

Nominees: Michael Cervaris, Fun Home; Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris; Brian d'Arcy James, Something Rotten!; Ken Watanabe, The King and I; Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

This category is an exciting mix of established and emerging talent, with over half the nominees competing for their first ever Tony Award; Robert Fairchild and Ken Watanabe even have the added excitement of being nominated for their Broadway debuts. The five nominees are also all currently performing on Broadway, which makes this as close to a fair fight as we're ever going to get when it comes to the Tonys.

As much as I adored Tony Yazbeck's work in On the Town, I just don't think the triple threat can compete with some of the showier performances in this category. Robert Fairchild received a nice set of reviews, with everyone agreeing the NY City Ballet principal is a naturally talented actor/singer in addition to his unrivaled dancing abilities. That said, I'm not sure the Broadway community is quite ready to award a newcomer the industry's highest honor. And while I was highly impressed with Ken Watanabe's utterly charming work in The King and I, enough people had trouble understanding the Japanese-born actor's accent that he faces an uphill battle in order to win this race.

Brian d'Arcy James is such an established talent in the theatrical community that it is easy to forget the golden-voiced character actor has yet to win a Tony Award. James definitely anchors Something Rotten! with a performance that is funny, sincere, and more than accommodating to his scenery chewing costars, making him a major contender for this award. But previous Tony-winner Michael Cerveris completely disappears inside the nebbish, deeply conflicted Bruce Bechdel in Fun Home, and not just because he is nearly unrecognizable in Paul Huntley's 1970's period wig. Cerveris is giving an actor's performance, layered and nuanced and emotionally vulnerable, all the things you think of when you imagine award winning work. Lisa Kron's book and Jeanine Tesori's score also give Cerveris more to play than any of the other nominees, which makes Cerveris the front-runner and likely winner.

Will & Should Win: Michael Cerveris, Fun Home


Check back on Monday for my predictions on what is probably the most closely watched, hotly debated race of the entire season: Best Actress in a Musical. In the meantime, get caught up on all my previous Tony coverage below:

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part II (Best Actor)

In honor of the impending announcement of the 2015 Tony Award nominees, I am continuing my comprehensive examination of the likely candidates in each of the Big 12 categories, providing my best educated guesses as to which performers and productions will be nominated for Broadway's highest honor. This year the acting races are extra tricky to predict, thanks to a recent rule change that allows anywhere between five and seven nominees in each of the performance categories. Since the only way to increase a category's size is through a tie, I doubt we'll see seven honorees across the board, but there will certainly be a least a few six and seven way races.

I'll do my best to predict not only who will wind up on the Tony ballot but how many slots each category will have, based on a combination of first hand experience, industry buzz, and past Tony voting trends. And because the nominations committee can always be counted on for a shocker or two, I will also nominate one wildcard performance in each acting category, indicating the person I think have the best chance of unseating one of my official nominees (or forcing a category expansion if I haven't predicted a maximum seven performers). We'll start with the men, including perhaps the most competitive race of the entire season.


Best Actor in a Play

Alex Sharp's phenomenal Broadway debut in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time is the stuff legends are made of.

If any category is going to make it to seven nominees it will be this one, given both the sheer number and quality of the eligible performances. The three gentlemen I'd consider locks are Bradley Cooper, Alexander Sharp, and Steven Boyer. Cooper turned The Elephant Man into arguably *the* hottest ticket of the season thanks to his critically acclaimed performance as the disfigured title character, and he did it all without the aid of makeup or prostheses . Recent Julliard grad Sharp is making one of the most jaw dropping Broadway debuts in years as the autistic teen at the center of the fantastic Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time (a production sure to do well at this year's ceremony), and until very recently I would have considered him the man to beat. But then Steven Boyer came along with his mind boggling performance in Hand to God, turning a foul-mouthed sock puppet named Tyrone into the uncontested star of that production while simultaneously inhabiting the opposite end of the emotional spectrum as the unwilling teen host of Tyrone's antics.

Not a lock but still strong possibilities are Hollywood stars Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhaal. Perennial Broadway favorite Jackman gave what many considered his finest stage performance in Jez Butterworth's The River, although the play itself proved off-putting to many members of the theatrical community. Gyllenhaal made his long anticipated Broadway debut in Manhattan Theatre Club's surprise hit Constellations, a two-hander that gave the Oscar-nominated actor plenty of time to shine. Another screen actor who drew rave reviews this season is Skylight's Bill Nighy, who will almost certainly be among this year's nominees. And Ben Miles' turn as political schemer Thomas Cromwell in the Royal Shakespeare Company's acclaimed Wolf Hall double bill certainly puts him in the mix as well.

Should all of the above gentlemen be nominated, that already puts us at the maximum seven nominees without even discussing several other worthy contenders. Nathan Lane is a consummate professional and one of our finest character actors, although past years have shown the committee is not above benching the two-time Tony-winner should his chosen vehicle not be deemed up to snuff (and It's Only a Play was unfortunately not up to snuff, no matter how good Lane may have been). Larry David may also find himself in contention for essentially playing himself in Fish in the Dark, as an acting nomination would be a way to acknowledge David for writing and staring in one of the spring's biggest hits even though the production itself is unlikely to crack the Best Play race (see: Holland Taylor's nomination for her solo show Ann back in 2013).

Nominees
Steven Boyer, Hand to God
Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Constellations
Hugh Jackman, The River
Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts I & II
Bill Nighy, Skylight
Alexander Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Wildcard
Larry David, Fish in the Dark
Bonus prediction: any wildcard will take Jackman's spot, thanks to The River's mixed critical reception


Best Actor in a Musical

Michael Cerveris is the complex, conflicted father in the new musical Fun Home, which examines cartoonist Alison Bechdel's complex relationship with her now deceased father.

This category is more up in the air than Best Actor in a Play, and depending on how frugal the committee feels may actually remain at the traditional five nominees. There aren't any performers I would consider sure things, although some actors are definitely in better positions than others. The role of Gabey in On the Town fits Tony Yazbeck like a glove, and I expect his work in that sparkling revival to net the longtime Broadway hoofer his first Tony Award nomination. I would also be very surprised if Michael Cerveris didn't make the cut for his work as the deeply conflicted Bechdel patriarch in the high-minded Fun Home, a show whose premise and pedigree simply scream "Tony Award." And as one of the hardest working, most beloved character men around, Brian d'Arcy James will almost certainly be recognized for his hilarious leading turn in Something Rotten!

After those three men, things become much uncertain. Rob McClure did exceptional work in the gone too soon Honeymoon in Vegas, but that show's troubled Broadway run and poor showing in the other industry awards calls his competitiveness into question. I personally loved Ken Watanabe's King of Siam in Lincoln Center's jaw-dropping The King and I, and he would not be the first heavily accented actor director Bartlett Sher guided to Tony glory (that would be South Pacific's Paulo Szot). Watanabe also has the benefit of starring in one of the most buzzed about productions of the spring and has a legitimate shot at awards consideration, although he has the disadvantage of competing against the memory of Yul Brynner's iconic work both onstage and in the film version.

I have a good feeling about Robert Fairchild, whose performance in the well-reviewed An American in Paris also has the benefit of exceeding admittedly modest expectations for the dancer turned leading man. But Fairchild does face stiff competition from several other performers, chief among them Finding Neverland's Matthew Morrison. I've never been a huge fan of Morrison - I would have preferred Jeremy Jordan reprise his performance from the Boston tryout - but his work in one of the spring's biggest musicals was well received and therefore puts him in contention. Then again, Neverland received some of the harshest reviews of the season, and although Tony voters have gotten better about judging each element of a show on its individual merits that dislike could hold Morrison back. And by virtue of being Roger Rees, The Visit's leading man is also someone who deserves at least a mention.

Nominees
Michael Cerveris, Fun Home
Brian d'Arcy James, Something Rotten!
Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris
Matthew Morrison, Finding Neverland
Ken Watanabe, The King and I
Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

Wildcard
Rob McClure, Honeymoon in Vegas


That's all I have to say (which is admittedly quite a lot) about this year's leading actors. Check back tomorrow for an equally in depth analysis of the Best Actress races, and keep an eye on this blog throughout the weekend for even more Tony predictions! In the meantime, you can catch up on my previous coverage of this year's races below:

Tony Rule Change
2015 Best Production Predictions