As I do every year, I will be predicting the winner in all of the non-design categories, discussing the pros and cons of each nominee before making my official choice. However, since who will win is an entirely separate concept from who I think should win, whenever those two artists don't line up I will be sure to mention it in my analysis. With that said, let's start out easy and look at two categories that feel like foregone conclusions at this point, Best Book and Best Score.
Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.
Best Book of a Musical
Nominees: Steve Martin, Bright Star; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton; Julian Fellowes, School of Rock; George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along
There's a bit of misunderstanding among many theatre fans about what a musical book writer actually does, to the point where the head of the Dramatist Guild actually felt the need to write in to the New York Times to clarify. Many people equate a musical's book with its spoken dialogue, and while that is a part of it a musical's book is really its structure, which is why through-composed works like Rent, Les Miserables, and a little show called Hamilton all have them. And Lin-Manuel Miranda's book for Hamilton is nothing short of genius, effortlessly balancing the sweep of the historical narrative with the emotional journeys of the story's various characters. Every single principle and supporting character has a narrative arc, and they are so deftly handled that you never have trouble tracking the various storylines even when a character disappear for long stretches of time.
I haven't seen all of the nominees in this category, but I have trouble imagining any of them carrying off the immense difficulty of such a task with the ease and finesse of Miranda (indeed, George C. Wolfe's ambitious but unwieldy book causes a lot of Shuffle Along's more glaring problems). Broadway's favorite writer/composer/performer has this one in the bag.
Will & Should Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Best Score
![]() |
| Tony nominees Christopher Jackson and Lin-Manuel Miranda as George Washington and Alexander Hamilton in Hamilton. |
Nominees: Steve Martin & Edie Brickell, Bright Star; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton; Andrew Lloyd Webber & Glenn Slater, School of Rock; Sara Bareilles, Waitress
There are some incredibly worthy nominees in this category, and in a year without a juggernaut like Hamilton any one of them could be a frontrunner to actually win. Bright Star didn't get amazing reviews, but even the naysayers all singled out the bluegrass score as a highlight. School of Rock has been hailed as a return to form for Sir Andrew Lloyd Webber, who love him or hate him has proven repeatedly that he knows how to write hummable, instantly recognizable melodies. And Sara Bareilles' brand of story-driven pop rock always seemed like a natural fit for the world of musical theatre, so it's no surprise to see the Broadway neophyte represented here.
But Hamilton is another beast entirely. Anyone who has heard the cast album can tell you it is compulsively listenable, drawing you in the way few shows can. Lin-Manuel Miranda took musical styles not normally associated with Broadway and made them insanely theatrical, showing a melodic and rhythmic genius that In the Heights only hinted at. The breadth of the score is astounding, from the giddy girl-group excitement of "The Schuyler Sisters" to the Brit pop of "You'll Be Back" to the soulful R&B influenced "Satisfied," a song which may be the most bravura example of musical theatre composition from the past ten years. The endlessly inventive score sees US Cabinet members debating via rapid fire rapping and secret government meetings backed by a pounding club beat, all wrapped up in some of the most brilliant lyrics to grace the Broadway stage. The score reveals new layers upon each hearing, be it a sly lyrical reference to Gilbert and Sullivan or a melodic motif that appears in an unexpected bit of underscoring, making Miranda the clear favorite here.
Will & Should Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments, and check back throughout the next few weeks for more Tony predictions.















