2015 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

With the unofficial start of summer this past Monday, we are now less than 2 weeks away from Broadway's biggest night: the Tony Awards! As I do every year, I am doing my best to predict who will come out on top during the June 7th telecast, and since I've already discussed the writing, direction, and the featured performer races, it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress categories. The pinnacle of recognition for any performer, these are inevitably some of the most hotly debated and contested races of any given season.

As always, my predictions are focused on who will win, not who is my personal favorite. If there is a major discrepancy, I will be sure to point it out, as there are all sorts of factors that can influence someone's Tony chances besides the quality of their work. So without further ado, let's dive into the Best Actor races to see who will get to add a shiny new award to their mantel next Sunday.

Best Actor in a Play

Alex Sharp hadn't even officially graduated from the Julliard Drama School when he was cast in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, and now he is one of the front runners for Best Actor in a Play.

Nominees: Steven Boyer, Hand to God; Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man; Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Bill Nighy, Skylight; Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Heading into awards season, this appeared to be the most competitive of all the acting categories, so I'm surprised to see only five nominees here despite plenty of deserving candidates. It's difficult to argue against any of these gentlemen, who all received universally good reviews and a few outright raves. Even Bradley Cooper, who would normally be at a disadvantage as the only nominee not currently performing on Broadway, remains a legitimate contender for the title.

The two names I would be most surprised to hear called on Tony Sunday are Ben Miles and Bill Nighy, but that doesn't mean either can be totally discounted. Miles is the central figure in the much lauded Wolf Hall double bill, but the excitement for that show seems to be focused on the production as a whole rather than any particular member of its sprawling ensemble. And while Nighy has been roundly praised for his work in Skylight, the general feeling towards that revival seems to be an intellectual respect rather than emotional excitement; the play may be a little too highbrow to get much attention in a season with so many electrifying performances. And while the aforementioned Cooper definitely has a shot, I do think the fact that The Elephant Man closed month ago will ultimately keep him from claiming victory.

Which leaves us with Steven Boyer and Alex Sharp, two unknowns giving perhaps the most exciting performances of the season. Boyer's work in Hand to God is mindblowingly good, a masterclass of physicality that allows the psychotic hand puppet Tyrone to emerge as one of the breakout characters of the season. The fact that Boyer manages to balance Tyrone's unfiltered id with host Jason's shy, soft-spoken manner is a jaw-dropping accomplishment that in my opinion is more than Tony worthy. That said, I think voters will go with Sharp's deeply felt portrayal of an autistic teen in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, as the recent Julliard grad anchors that dazzling play with a heart and gravitas that keeps the impressive production design from overwhelming the narrative. But I'm still rooting for Boyer, especially if it means the foul-mouthed Tyrone makes an appearance on the Tony telecast.

Will Win: Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Should Win: Steven Boyer, Hand to God

Best Actor in a Musical

Michael Cerveris gives what he describes as his most emotionally draining performance to date in Fun Home, the Pulitzer Prize finalist transfer from the acclaimed Public Theatre.

Nominees: Michael Cervaris, Fun Home; Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris; Brian d'Arcy James, Something Rotten!; Ken Watanabe, The King and I; Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

This category is an exciting mix of established and emerging talent, with over half the nominees competing for their first ever Tony Award; Robert Fairchild and Ken Watanabe even have the added excitement of being nominated for their Broadway debuts. The five nominees are also all currently performing on Broadway, which makes this as close to a fair fight as we're ever going to get when it comes to the Tonys.

As much as I adored Tony Yazbeck's work in On the Town, I just don't think the triple threat can compete with some of the showier performances in this category. Robert Fairchild received a nice set of reviews, with everyone agreeing the NY City Ballet principal is a naturally talented actor/singer in addition to his unrivaled dancing abilities. That said, I'm not sure the Broadway community is quite ready to award a newcomer the industry's highest honor. And while I was highly impressed with Ken Watanabe's utterly charming work in The King and I, enough people had trouble understanding the Japanese-born actor's accent that he faces an uphill battle in order to win this race.

Brian d'Arcy James is such an established talent in the theatrical community that it is easy to forget the golden-voiced character actor has yet to win a Tony Award. James definitely anchors Something Rotten! with a performance that is funny, sincere, and more than accommodating to his scenery chewing costars, making him a major contender for this award. But previous Tony-winner Michael Cerveris completely disappears inside the nebbish, deeply conflicted Bruce Bechdel in Fun Home, and not just because he is nearly unrecognizable in Paul Huntley's 1970's period wig. Cerveris is giving an actor's performance, layered and nuanced and emotionally vulnerable, all the things you think of when you imagine award winning work. Lisa Kron's book and Jeanine Tesori's score also give Cerveris more to play than any of the other nominees, which makes Cerveris the front-runner and likely winner.

Will & Should Win: Michael Cerveris, Fun Home


Check back on Monday for my predictions on what is probably the most closely watched, hotly debated race of the entire season: Best Actress in a Musical. In the meantime, get caught up on all my previous Tony coverage below:

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part II (Best Actor)

In honor of the impending announcement of the 2015 Tony Award nominees, I am continuing my comprehensive examination of the likely candidates in each of the Big 12 categories, providing my best educated guesses as to which performers and productions will be nominated for Broadway's highest honor. This year the acting races are extra tricky to predict, thanks to a recent rule change that allows anywhere between five and seven nominees in each of the performance categories. Since the only way to increase a category's size is through a tie, I doubt we'll see seven honorees across the board, but there will certainly be a least a few six and seven way races.

I'll do my best to predict not only who will wind up on the Tony ballot but how many slots each category will have, based on a combination of first hand experience, industry buzz, and past Tony voting trends. And because the nominations committee can always be counted on for a shocker or two, I will also nominate one wildcard performance in each acting category, indicating the person I think have the best chance of unseating one of my official nominees (or forcing a category expansion if I haven't predicted a maximum seven performers). We'll start with the men, including perhaps the most competitive race of the entire season.


Best Actor in a Play

Alex Sharp's phenomenal Broadway debut in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time is the stuff legends are made of.

If any category is going to make it to seven nominees it will be this one, given both the sheer number and quality of the eligible performances. The three gentlemen I'd consider locks are Bradley Cooper, Alexander Sharp, and Steven Boyer. Cooper turned The Elephant Man into arguably *the* hottest ticket of the season thanks to his critically acclaimed performance as the disfigured title character, and he did it all without the aid of makeup or prostheses . Recent Julliard grad Sharp is making one of the most jaw dropping Broadway debuts in years as the autistic teen at the center of the fantastic Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time (a production sure to do well at this year's ceremony), and until very recently I would have considered him the man to beat. But then Steven Boyer came along with his mind boggling performance in Hand to God, turning a foul-mouthed sock puppet named Tyrone into the uncontested star of that production while simultaneously inhabiting the opposite end of the emotional spectrum as the unwilling teen host of Tyrone's antics.

Not a lock but still strong possibilities are Hollywood stars Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhaal. Perennial Broadway favorite Jackman gave what many considered his finest stage performance in Jez Butterworth's The River, although the play itself proved off-putting to many members of the theatrical community. Gyllenhaal made his long anticipated Broadway debut in Manhattan Theatre Club's surprise hit Constellations, a two-hander that gave the Oscar-nominated actor plenty of time to shine. Another screen actor who drew rave reviews this season is Skylight's Bill Nighy, who will almost certainly be among this year's nominees. And Ben Miles' turn as political schemer Thomas Cromwell in the Royal Shakespeare Company's acclaimed Wolf Hall double bill certainly puts him in the mix as well.

Should all of the above gentlemen be nominated, that already puts us at the maximum seven nominees without even discussing several other worthy contenders. Nathan Lane is a consummate professional and one of our finest character actors, although past years have shown the committee is not above benching the two-time Tony-winner should his chosen vehicle not be deemed up to snuff (and It's Only a Play was unfortunately not up to snuff, no matter how good Lane may have been). Larry David may also find himself in contention for essentially playing himself in Fish in the Dark, as an acting nomination would be a way to acknowledge David for writing and staring in one of the spring's biggest hits even though the production itself is unlikely to crack the Best Play race (see: Holland Taylor's nomination for her solo show Ann back in 2013).

Nominees
Steven Boyer, Hand to God
Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Constellations
Hugh Jackman, The River
Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts I & II
Bill Nighy, Skylight
Alexander Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Wildcard
Larry David, Fish in the Dark
Bonus prediction: any wildcard will take Jackman's spot, thanks to The River's mixed critical reception


Best Actor in a Musical

Michael Cerveris is the complex, conflicted father in the new musical Fun Home, which examines cartoonist Alison Bechdel's complex relationship with her now deceased father.

This category is more up in the air than Best Actor in a Play, and depending on how frugal the committee feels may actually remain at the traditional five nominees. There aren't any performers I would consider sure things, although some actors are definitely in better positions than others. The role of Gabey in On the Town fits Tony Yazbeck like a glove, and I expect his work in that sparkling revival to net the longtime Broadway hoofer his first Tony Award nomination. I would also be very surprised if Michael Cerveris didn't make the cut for his work as the deeply conflicted Bechdel patriarch in the high-minded Fun Home, a show whose premise and pedigree simply scream "Tony Award." And as one of the hardest working, most beloved character men around, Brian d'Arcy James will almost certainly be recognized for his hilarious leading turn in Something Rotten!

After those three men, things become much uncertain. Rob McClure did exceptional work in the gone too soon Honeymoon in Vegas, but that show's troubled Broadway run and poor showing in the other industry awards calls his competitiveness into question. I personally loved Ken Watanabe's King of Siam in Lincoln Center's jaw-dropping The King and I, and he would not be the first heavily accented actor director Bartlett Sher guided to Tony glory (that would be South Pacific's Paulo Szot). Watanabe also has the benefit of starring in one of the most buzzed about productions of the spring and has a legitimate shot at awards consideration, although he has the disadvantage of competing against the memory of Yul Brynner's iconic work both onstage and in the film version.

I have a good feeling about Robert Fairchild, whose performance in the well-reviewed An American in Paris also has the benefit of exceeding admittedly modest expectations for the dancer turned leading man. But Fairchild does face stiff competition from several other performers, chief among them Finding Neverland's Matthew Morrison. I've never been a huge fan of Morrison - I would have preferred Jeremy Jordan reprise his performance from the Boston tryout - but his work in one of the spring's biggest musicals was well received and therefore puts him in contention. Then again, Neverland received some of the harshest reviews of the season, and although Tony voters have gotten better about judging each element of a show on its individual merits that dislike could hold Morrison back. And by virtue of being Roger Rees, The Visit's leading man is also someone who deserves at least a mention.

Nominees
Michael Cerveris, Fun Home
Brian d'Arcy James, Something Rotten!
Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris
Matthew Morrison, Finding Neverland
Ken Watanabe, The King and I
Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

Wildcard
Rob McClure, Honeymoon in Vegas


That's all I have to say (which is admittedly quite a lot) about this year's leading actors. Check back tomorrow for an equally in depth analysis of the Best Actress races, and keep an eye on this blog throughout the weekend for even more Tony predictions! In the meantime, you can catch up on my previous coverage of this year's races below:

Tony Rule Change
2015 Best Production Predictions

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part II

Because my love of the Tony Awards cannot be contained to a mere six weeks in the spring, I am once again using the winter lull in Broadway activity to assess the Tony prospects of last fall's shows. I've already discussed my thoughts on the production categories, meaning it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress awards.

This year sees a potentially game changing new rule allowing up to seven nominees in each of the acting categories, which is highly exciting but also makes any predictions that much harder. Since a tie in the nominations process is required to activate a category expansion I doubt we'll see it occur across the board, and after last year's Best Musical controversy I think it's best to assume the committee will err towards less rather than more nominees. With a large number of productions slated to open in the next few months that will surely produce some awards buzz, I'm also going to limit my discussion here to those performers I think have made particularly strong critical impressions.

Warning: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Actor in a Musical

Tony Yazbeck is giving a helluva performance in the triumphant Broadway return of On the Town.

The currently aren't a lot of performers who qualify in this category, but a couple of them already look like sure things. Tony Yazbeck is a hard-working and well-respected triple threat who's been given the role of his career in the top notch revival of On the Town. Yazbeck knocks it out of the park with his beautifully sung and gorgeously danced Gabey, and I would be shocked if he didn't at least score a nomination. I also expect Honeymoon in Vegas' Rob McClure to be among the lucky few on April 28th, especially since his current vehicle is much more deserving of the mercurial actor's many talents than the ill-fated Chaplin (for which he was also nominated). If there weren't so many male-fronted musicals on the horizon I would be more optimistic about Michael Esper's chances for his accomplished work in The Last Ship, but that show's early closing will be a difficult obstacle to overcome. There's also a very slim chance McClure's costar Tony Danza scores a nod, although I suspect he might be demoted to the supporting actor race despite his above the title billing.

Best Actor in a Play

Recent Julliard graduate Alex Sharp (right) astounds in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, a performance made all the more impressive by the fact that it's his Broadway debut. 

This is, hands down, the most competitive acting category at the moment. If any race is going to prompt an expansion in the number of nominees, it will be this one, which features a glut of deserving talent even before the upcoming spring shows are taken into account. It would be downright criminal to deny a nomination to The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's Alex Sharp, the Julliard graduate whose Broadway debut is more layered, nuanced, and compelling than many Broadway veterans. And while Bradley Cooper's name certainly helped generate initial interest in The Elephant Man, it's his universally praised performance as the titular character that has made that revival one of the season's hottest tickets. Both Sharp and Cooper are virtual locks.

Very close behind them is Broadway favorite Hugh Jackman, although The River has proven divisive enough as a play that it might hinder his Tony chances. On the other hand, even critics who were lukewarm on the production were impressed with the Jackman's performance, with several calling it the best of his Broadway career. It would be very surprising to see Jackman's name excluded when the nominations are announced, but the category is so competitive he may wind up as one of this year's high profile snubs. A case can also be made for Jake Gyllenhaal in his well-reviewed Broadway debut, but my feeling is that several of the spring plays will have to disappoint for the trippy Constellations to have any real awards momentum come April. And while Nathan Lane is one of our most reliable talents and was easily the best thing about the disappointing It's Only a Play, I just don't know if there's space for him among this year's nominees. If there's going to be a wildcard among the lead actors, it would be Disgraced's Hari Dhillon, but in all honesty I think the category is just too crowded for him to make the cut.

Best Actress in a Musical

Brynn O'Malley (right) gets romanced by a crooning Tony Danza in the fun-filled musical romp Honeymoon in Vegas.

I want to go on record saying Brynn O'Malley needs a Tony nomination for her standout work in Honeymoon in Vegas; her performance was my favorite thing about Jason Robert Brown's highly enjoyable musical comedy. She has little chance of actually winning, especially with new roles for Tony darlings Kelli O'Hara, Kristin Chenoweth, and Chita Rivera on the horizon, but I'm really hoping the committee includes O'Malley's name among those announced on April 28th (I think they will). I also have a soft spot for Side Show's Erin Davie and Emily Padgett, perfectly matched as conjoined twins Daisy and Violet Hilton, but I fear their show will be too long gone by the time nominations are doled out. While it would be nice to see the pair win a joint nomination like their predecessors Alice Ripley and Emily Skinner did in 1998, I have a sneaking suspicion these talented ladies will be considered individually and split votes to the point neither gets nominated. Should the category expand to six or seven nominees, there's also an outside chance The Last Ship's Rachel Tucker gets nominated for her performance as the conflicted Meg Dawson, but that scenario involves one or more of the spring's actresses turning in an unexpectedly subpar performance.

Best Actress in a Play

Three time Tony winner Glenn Close returned to Broadway in the well reviewed revival of A Delicate Balance, but the curiously buzz free production may well be forgotten by the time Tony Awards are handed out.

Most of the big names in plays this fall were men, which leaves the Best Actress category with more breathing room. It also makes this race more unpredictable, as it could go any number of ways. Glenn Close's much anticipated Broadway return in A Delicate Balance was well received and certainly makes the three-time Tony winner a contender, although that production has virtually no buzz around it. As a member of Disgraced's much praised ensemble Gretchen Mol also merits consideration, and may be the one actor from the incendiary play that actually manages to score a nomination. I would also keep an eye on Constellations' Ruth Wilson, as the two-time Olivier Award winner is a big part of why that reality-spanning love story went over so well with critics. The Real Thing's Maggie Gyllenhaal might even slip in here if the category does expand, although I have to imagine at least one of the slots is reserved for Helen Mirren's Queen Elizabeth II in this spring's The Audience.


Those are my thoughts on where the lead actor and actress races currently stand; feel free to share your picks in the comments. And for more of my 2015 Tony Awards coverage, check out below:

Tony Awards Rule Change
Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part I

A Dazzling, Inventive, and Moving "Incident"

Review: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Julliard grad Alexander Sharp makes one of the most impressive debuts in recent memory as autistic teen Christopher Boone in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

You have to hand it to those Brits: they certainly aren't afraid of innovative staging techniques. The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, the latest dazzlingly theatrical import from London's West End, is one of the most visually arresting plays of the year, featuring an endlessly inventive staging by director Marianne Elliott and co-choreographers Scott Graham and Steven Hoggett. But more importantly, the show (adapted by Simon Stephens from Mark Haddon's bestselling novel) is an engaging, thought-provoking, and utterly moving examination of the challenges faced by an autistic teen and the fallible people tasked with raising him.

Although no one in the show ever utters the "A" word, it is clear that 15 year old Christopher Boone falls somewhere along the autism spectrum. He doesn't like to be touched, has trouble interacting with people who don't say what they mean (metaphors are a particular source of irritation), and interruptions to his routine often prompt wild outbursts. At the same time, Christopher is a mathematical genius whose ordered and logical view of the world translates into a special aptitude with numbers and observation. The play opens with Christopher being accused of murdering his neighbor's dog, and initially follows his quest to find the real culprit despite his father's insistence Christopher mind his own business. To give away much more would spoil the surprise, but let it be said that this curious incident prompts a journey far more concerned with Christopher and his relation to the world than with the death of a domesticated animal.

Christopher is brilliantly embodied by newcomer Alexander Sharp, fresh out of Julliard and making one of the most impressive Broadway debuts in years. Sharp's every tic, mannerism, and carefully selected syllable together create a wholly convincing and completely compelling portrayal of a very special young man. Both Sharp and the play refuse to let Christopher be defined or limited by his condition, but they also don't shy away from the very real challenges faced by an autistic youth in the modern world. More so than any play I've come across, Curious Incident places you inside its protagonist's head and makes you see the world through his eyes. The script, staging, and Sharp's deeply felt performance all combine to make Christopher extremely sympathetic and ensure the audience remains invested in his journey until the very end.

While Sharp does the lion's share of the play's heavy lifting, he is ably supported by the extremely capable ensemble. Francesca Faridany provides a beautifully warm, welcoming presence as Christopher's teacher Siobhan, anchoring the show with her earthy tones and calm demeanor. Ian Barford and Enid Graham do standout work as Christopher's flawed but deeply loving parents; Graham has an especially heartwrenching scene towards the end of the first act that is one of the most honest pieces of acting of the evening. The other members of the ensemble play a collection of bit parts with minimal lines, but they all still manage to make their characters pop. In fact it is the ensemble, more than anyone else on stage, who allows Sharp to soar.

That last sentence is meant literally. The ensemble hoists, lifts, and flips Sharp through a dizzying array of gravity-defying choreography that sends this production's wow factor through the roof. It's difficult to tell where Elliott's staging ends and the choreography by Misters Graham and Hogett begins, so best to just give them joint credit for the most inventive staging to grace Broadway this season. Using little more than the human body, they find ways to make Christopher walk on walls and fly through the air, creating a heightened version of reality that provides vast amounts of insight into how he sees the world.

Elloitt and her team also make excellent use of Bunny Christie's deceptively simple set. Augmented by Finn Ross' sensational video design, what initially appears to be little more than a black box with gridlines becomes a character in and of itself. Lit to perfection by Paule Constable, the set provides an added window into Christopher's ordered yet chaotic mind that is never less than fascinating to look at. Add in the sound design by Ian Dickinson and the electronica-tinged music by Adrian Sutton and Curious Incident becomes a sensory experience unlike any other.

It's easy to get carried away by the stagecraft on display, but all of the special effects in the world are wasted if the story they're supporting isn't worth telling. Thankfully, Christopher's journey of self discover is very much worth the effort, providing a window into the world of an autistic youth on his way to self discovery. Especially as portrayed by the sensational Mr. Sharp, Christopher has a great deal to teach us about perseverance and understanding in a moving narrative about the struggles of everyday life. The fact that these lessons come in a such a glossy, high tech package is only icing on the proverbial cake.