2015 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

With the unofficial start of summer this past Monday, we are now less than 2 weeks away from Broadway's biggest night: the Tony Awards! As I do every year, I am doing my best to predict who will come out on top during the June 7th telecast, and since I've already discussed the writing, direction, and the featured performer races, it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress categories. The pinnacle of recognition for any performer, these are inevitably some of the most hotly debated and contested races of any given season.

As always, my predictions are focused on who will win, not who is my personal favorite. If there is a major discrepancy, I will be sure to point it out, as there are all sorts of factors that can influence someone's Tony chances besides the quality of their work. So without further ado, let's dive into the Best Actor races to see who will get to add a shiny new award to their mantel next Sunday.

Best Actor in a Play

Alex Sharp hadn't even officially graduated from the Julliard Drama School when he was cast in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, and now he is one of the front runners for Best Actor in a Play.

Nominees: Steven Boyer, Hand to God; Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man; Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Bill Nighy, Skylight; Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Heading into awards season, this appeared to be the most competitive of all the acting categories, so I'm surprised to see only five nominees here despite plenty of deserving candidates. It's difficult to argue against any of these gentlemen, who all received universally good reviews and a few outright raves. Even Bradley Cooper, who would normally be at a disadvantage as the only nominee not currently performing on Broadway, remains a legitimate contender for the title.

The two names I would be most surprised to hear called on Tony Sunday are Ben Miles and Bill Nighy, but that doesn't mean either can be totally discounted. Miles is the central figure in the much lauded Wolf Hall double bill, but the excitement for that show seems to be focused on the production as a whole rather than any particular member of its sprawling ensemble. And while Nighy has been roundly praised for his work in Skylight, the general feeling towards that revival seems to be an intellectual respect rather than emotional excitement; the play may be a little too highbrow to get much attention in a season with so many electrifying performances. And while the aforementioned Cooper definitely has a shot, I do think the fact that The Elephant Man closed month ago will ultimately keep him from claiming victory.

Which leaves us with Steven Boyer and Alex Sharp, two unknowns giving perhaps the most exciting performances of the season. Boyer's work in Hand to God is mindblowingly good, a masterclass of physicality that allows the psychotic hand puppet Tyrone to emerge as one of the breakout characters of the season. The fact that Boyer manages to balance Tyrone's unfiltered id with host Jason's shy, soft-spoken manner is a jaw-dropping accomplishment that in my opinion is more than Tony worthy. That said, I think voters will go with Sharp's deeply felt portrayal of an autistic teen in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, as the recent Julliard grad anchors that dazzling play with a heart and gravitas that keeps the impressive production design from overwhelming the narrative. But I'm still rooting for Boyer, especially if it means the foul-mouthed Tyrone makes an appearance on the Tony telecast.

Will Win: Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Should Win: Steven Boyer, Hand to God

Best Actor in a Musical

Michael Cerveris gives what he describes as his most emotionally draining performance to date in Fun Home, the Pulitzer Prize finalist transfer from the acclaimed Public Theatre.

Nominees: Michael Cervaris, Fun Home; Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris; Brian d'Arcy James, Something Rotten!; Ken Watanabe, The King and I; Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

This category is an exciting mix of established and emerging talent, with over half the nominees competing for their first ever Tony Award; Robert Fairchild and Ken Watanabe even have the added excitement of being nominated for their Broadway debuts. The five nominees are also all currently performing on Broadway, which makes this as close to a fair fight as we're ever going to get when it comes to the Tonys.

As much as I adored Tony Yazbeck's work in On the Town, I just don't think the triple threat can compete with some of the showier performances in this category. Robert Fairchild received a nice set of reviews, with everyone agreeing the NY City Ballet principal is a naturally talented actor/singer in addition to his unrivaled dancing abilities. That said, I'm not sure the Broadway community is quite ready to award a newcomer the industry's highest honor. And while I was highly impressed with Ken Watanabe's utterly charming work in The King and I, enough people had trouble understanding the Japanese-born actor's accent that he faces an uphill battle in order to win this race.

Brian d'Arcy James is such an established talent in the theatrical community that it is easy to forget the golden-voiced character actor has yet to win a Tony Award. James definitely anchors Something Rotten! with a performance that is funny, sincere, and more than accommodating to his scenery chewing costars, making him a major contender for this award. But previous Tony-winner Michael Cerveris completely disappears inside the nebbish, deeply conflicted Bruce Bechdel in Fun Home, and not just because he is nearly unrecognizable in Paul Huntley's 1970's period wig. Cerveris is giving an actor's performance, layered and nuanced and emotionally vulnerable, all the things you think of when you imagine award winning work. Lisa Kron's book and Jeanine Tesori's score also give Cerveris more to play than any of the other nominees, which makes Cerveris the front-runner and likely winner.

Will & Should Win: Michael Cerveris, Fun Home


Check back on Monday for my predictions on what is probably the most closely watched, hotly debated race of the entire season: Best Actress in a Musical. In the meantime, get caught up on all my previous Tony coverage below:

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress

2015 Tony Predictions: Direction and Choreography

The 2015 Tony Awards are less than 3 weeks away, and all of Broadway is buzzing with speculation over who will be victorious come June 7th. Predicting Tony winners just so happens to be one of my favorite pastimes, and so I'm continuing my coverage of this year's ceremony by doing my best to select the people and productions most likely to walk away with that spinning statuette on Tony Sunday. Of course, the people who *will* win are not always the people who *deserve* to win, so I will also make sure to point out when I think the probable winner doesn't match up with the most deserving person/production. I've already discussed the musical writing awards, so now we move on to the people who tell the actors where to go and what to do: the directors and choreographers.

Best Direction of a Play

Tony nominee Alex Sharp (r) and Enid Graham in a scene from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

Nominees: Stephen Daldry, Skylight; Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Scott Ellis, You Can't Take It With You; Jeremy Herrin, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Moritz von Stuelpnagel, Hand to God

"It's a honor just to be nominated" sounds horribly cliche, but anyone in this category not named Marianne Elliott should definitely remember such tried and true advice come Broadway's big night. Elliott has helmed the most visually stunning play in several seasons, and much of The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's dazzle comes specifically from her staging rather than from the equally impressive production design (which is virtually guaranteed to win some Tonys on its own). Not only that, but Elliott somehow managed to keep her bold and daring staging in service of the story rather than letting it overwhelm the narrative, something a lesser director would surely struggle with.

The other productions in this category have been mostly praised for their top-notch acting, something the director definitely helps mold but is ultimately the creation of the performer (no matter how good a director Hand to God's Moritz von Stuelpnagel may be, you can't teach just anyone to do what Steven Boyer does in that show). Unfortunately for Stephen Daldry, Scott Ellis, and Jeremy Herrin, you have a put a pretty distinct directorial stamp on a show to be a true Tony contender, and their strengths this season lie primarily in getting out of the material's way rather than imposing their will upon it. This is Elliott's award to lose.

Will and Should Win: Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Direction of a Musical

The Bechdel family, the enigmatic clan at the certain of Off-Broadway transfer (and 2014 Pulitzer Prize finalist) Fun Home.

Nominees: Sam Gold, Fun Home; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; John Rando, On the Town; Bartlett Sher, The King and I; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

Now this is a tight race, and one that could conceivably go to any of the five highly deserving nominees. I'm going to go ahead and rule out both Casey Nicholaw and Christopher Wheeldon, as I suspect that should voters want to honor either gentleman they will do so in the Best Choreography category while using this race to recognize someone who is not a double nominee. And while I having nothing but respect for John Rando's refreshing, exuberant work on what many considered a hopelessly dated show, I don't think the On the Town director has a very good shot at winning such a competitive category.

Which leaves Sam Gold and Bartlett Sher, who are so neck and neck that you might as well toss a coin to determine the winner. Both helmed universally acclaimed spring productions that are still fresh in everyone's minds, and both shows owe a large part of their success to their excellent direction. The oft-performed King and I could easily have seemed tired and/or dated, but as Sher did with South Pacific several seasons ago the Tony-winning director has stripped any hint of artifice from the Rodgers and Hammerstein classic and allowed us to see the show afresh. Meanwhile, Gold has done absolutely extraordinary things with Fun Home, reimagining his Off-Broadway staging so completely that you would swear the entire piece was originally conceived and produced in the round. Gold has also guided his small cast to universally excellent performances that stick with you long after the final curtain, with several of his actors up for Tony Awards themselves.

Personally, I would vote for Sher, because ultimately The King and I affected and engaged me in a way Fun Home did not. Despite the many admirable elements of the Off-Broadway transfer, I couldn't connect with the characters on an emotional level even though their lives and concerns more closely mirrored my own experiences than Anna Leonowens' trip to Siam. However, I will fully admit that I seem to be in the minority regarding Fun Home's emotional effectiveness, which I think will ultimately be enough to give Gold the edge.

Will Win: Sam Gold, Fun Home
Should Win: Bartlett Sher, The King and I

Best Choreography

Tony nominees Leanne Cope and Robert Fairchild in one of many pas de deuxs they share in An American in Paris.

Nominees: Joshua Bergasse, On the Town; Christopher Gattelli, The King and I; Scott Graham and Stephen Hoggart, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

This is where I expect Tony voters will acknowledge all of Christopher Wheeldon's work on An American in Paris, one of the season's biggest surprises. Even disregarding its status as the most nominated musical of the season, by all accounts Paris is an enormous dance show with incredibly demanding choreography that is expertly realized by Wheeldon's top notch dancers. It's refreshing to see a new musical that places such an emphasis on dance, an art form that has been distressingly sparse on Broadway in recent years.

The downside to Wheeldon's likely win is that it doesn't leave room for acknowledgement of Joshua Bergasse's incredible choreography for On the Town. Most producers and directors would have trimmed or even cut at least some of the massive dance numbers when reviving On the Town for modern audiences, but thanks to Bergasse the revival's dancing is its strongest suit. Playful yet precise, Bergasse's dances call to mind the inventive whimsy of multiple Tony-winner Susan Stroman, and hopefully this Broadway newcomer will stick around for many years to come.

Bergasse is also the only legitimate threat to Wheeldon; previous winner Casey Nicholaw's Something Rotten! seems to be suffering from a bit of backlash (it didn't win a single Outer Critic's Circle Award despite having more nominations than any other production), and The King and I just doesn't have enough choreography for Christopher Gattelli to legitimately compete with shows literally overflowing with dance. And giving the Best Choreography Tony to a play in a season which saw such a high volume of traditional dancing is so unlikely that it hardly merits discussion.

Will and Should Win: Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris
Who I'd Like to Win Anyway: Joshua Beragsse, On the Town


Keep checking back in the coming weeks for more Tony predictions (updates hopefully every Monday and Friday). In my next post I'll delve into the acting awards, and until then you can read all of my previous Tony predictions below:

Tony Nominee React
Best Book and Score