2018 Tony Predictions: Best Director and Choreography

While many Tony categories this year are up for grabs, that seems to stem more from all the nominees being equally good but not great rather than a surfeit of truly standout work. That is not meant to detract from this year's nominees so much as an acknowledgement that there's just less eligible work this season, and it isn't the creative home runs we've been spoiled by the past few years. That said, one area where this year's Tonys are *super* competitive is Best Director, so read on to find out my predictions of who will walk away a winner on June 10th (and if they actually deserve it).

Best Direction of a Play

Andrew Garfield as Prior Walter and the cast of Angels in America.

Nominees: Marianne Elliott, Angels in America; Joe Mantello, Three Tall Women; Patrick Marber, Travesties; John Tiffany, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; George C. Wolfe, The Iceman Cometh

The level of talent in this category is off the charts. With the exception of Travesties' Patrick Marber, all are previous Tony winners, both hugely influential and highly respected in the Broadway community. And the shows they are nominated for not only represent some of the best reviewed productions of the season, but also display an sense of scale and depth rarely attempted in a Broadway play these days.

While the Tonys typically love an underdog story, I don't see Marber breaking through for Roundabout's revival of Tom Stoppard's heady Travesties. The play is just too obtuse for the average Tony voter to really rally behind, even though they all surely recognize and respect the skill that went into mounting it. Meanwhile George C. Wolfe's The Iceman Cometh's finds itself the victim of poor timing, coming only a few years after a much heralded mounting at Brooklyn Academy of Music starring Nathan Lane and Brian Dennehy that was once rumored for a Broadway transfer. Many critics felt the show didn't quite merit revisiting so soon, and Wolfe will unfortunately be penalized for it. And while I have read nary a negative word about Joe Mantello's mounting of Three Tall Women, I have trouble imagining him triumphing over the other two gargantuan undertakings under consideration here.

Both Angels in America and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child are epic plays presented in two parts. Both have a lot of technical elements for their directors to wrangle, with Cursed Child reportedly boasting a physical production and special effects on the level of any big budget musical. There is a very good chance John Tiffany will win for bringing The Boy Who Lived to Broadway in such successful, stunning fashion, a clear triumph of theatrical craft and artistry. But Angels in America is inarguably one of the densest, most thought provoking, and important plays of the past 50 years, and by all accounts Marianne Elliott has nailed it. In what some might consider an upset, I foresee her name being the one called on June 10th, to thunderous applause.

Will and Should Win: Marianne Elliott, Angels in America

Best Direction of a Musical

Harry Hadden-Paton as Henry Higgins and Lauren Ambrose as Eliza Doolittle in My Fair Lady at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: Michael Arden, Once on this Island; David Cromer, The Band's Visit; Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants; Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls; Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady

For me, this is hands down the most competitive category of the night. Each director's vision permeates every corner of their respective productions, and yet ultimately it is the material which shines through instead of some heavy-handed directorial "concept." That said, I think we can safely rule out a win for Casey Nicholaw, as the very entertaining Mean Girls is hardly his best work. And while David Cromer is a dark horse for his work on the critically lauded The Band's Visit, I don't think his direction of that show is as integral to its success as the remaining three contenders.

It cannot be understated how much Michael Arden's vision for Once on this Island helped shape that production into the jewel it is today. His environmental staging makes the most out of the deceptively tricky Circle in the Square Theatre, and for all his lush images and inventive staging he keeps the focus squarely on the narrative's big, beating heart. After the Deaf West Spring Awakening revival and now this, Arden has firmly established himself as an artist to watch, but I sadly don't think it's his time to win Tony glory just yet. 

When it comes to choosing between Tina Landau and Bartlett Sher it's almost too close to call. The Outer Critics' Circle refused to pick, instead awarding both artists Best Direction of a Musical in a rare tie. Sher has subtly but irrevocably changed the way My Fair Lady plays for a modern audience more aware than ever of how gender politics play out in popular entertainment. He has radically reinterpreted a beloved classic in a way that feels startlingly fresh and contemporary without changing a word of the 62 year old classic.

Meanwhile Landau, who has been attached to SpongeBob SquarePants almost since its inception, has miraculous turned what seemed like a cynical cash grab by a big corporation into one of the most entertaining celebrations of theatrical craft around. She has guided her design team to a visual look that evokes the off-kilter feel of the cartoon without literally copying it, and has assembled a rock solid cast that have been encouraged to take their performances far beyond a funny voice and a couple of quirks. She as much as anyone helped shape the disparate elements into a unified whole that feels entirely at home on stage. 

Sher seems like a safer bet to win, and should he walk away with the trophy on Tony Sunday you won't hear any complaints from me. But Landau is this season's MVP when in comes to direction, and I'm hoping she will walk away with the acknowledgement she deserves.

Will Win: Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady

Should Win: Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants

Best Choreography

The beautiful dancers of the cast of Carousel.

Nominees: Christopher Gattelli, My Fair Lady; Christopher Gattelli, SpongeBob SquarePants; Steven Hoggett, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls; Justin Peck, Carousel

This article is running a bit long, but that's okay because there's not much to discuss here. Justin Peck easily wins Best Choreography for his beautiful and abundant work on Carousel, the biggest dance show of the season. The revival's producers were smart to hire New York City Ballet's youngest ever choreographer in residence to stage Carousel's many dances - including the signature Rodgers and Hammerstein dream ballet - and I can't imagine anyone else winning this award.

Will & Should Win: Justin Peck, Carousel

Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Best Book and Score

2017 Tony Awards Predictions: Direction and Choreography

With the Tony Awards less than 2 weeks away, it's time to really dig in and start making predictions about the people and productions who will receive Broadway's highest honor on June 11th. As always, I will be using a combination of personal opinion, critical acclaim, and industry buzz to determine who I think is most likely to win each of the major races. As these are predictions about who will win rather than who I think should win, sometimes my personal favorite will be the underdog. If so, I'll be sure to point that out in my analysis.

On with the predictions!

Best Direction of a Play

Tony nominees Laura Linney and Cynthia Nixon in The Little Foxes.

Nominees: Sam Gold, A Doll's House: Part 2; Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Jitney; Bartlett Sher, Oslo; Daniel Sullivan, The Little Foxes; Rebecca Taichman, Indecent

I'm at a bit of a disadvantage in this category, as I have shamefully not seen any of the nominated productions. That said, all of these nominees are very well regarded, which makes for a race that could go any number of ways. Personally, I think Bartlett Sher is the least likely winner, as Oslo seems to lack the momentum that some of the other big plays have. I think Rebecca Taichman may run into a similar obstacle with Indecent, a play many people greatly admire but that doesn't seem to be anyone's favorite, a major problem when Tony votes are often emotional as much as they are analytical.

A Doll's House: Part 2 is the most nominated new play of the season, which puts director Sam Gold in a very strong position. However, he is also the most recent Tony winner of the bunch, having just won in 2015 for Fun Home. I suspect most Tony voters would prefer to spread the love, and the fact Gold also helmed the highly divisive, stripped down, modern dress revival of The Glass Menagerie this spring doesn't help matters.

Ruben Santiago-Hudson has made a name for himself as one of the top interpreters of August Wilson's work, a cannon that has enjoyed renewed admiration thanks to the Oscar-nominated film version of Fences and the highly lauded Broadway premiere of Jitney, which Santiago-Hudson is nominated for. Helming the one production not currently running is generally a Tony handicap, but this might be a case of absence making the heart grow fonder. Then again, Santiago-Hudson is just as likely to be undone by Daniel Sullivan's work on the buzzy revival of The Little Foxes, the fifth Broadway production of Lillian Helman's drama which turned out far better than anyone expected it to. There's also the fact that Sullivan is one of the most respected directors in the industry, but has curiously only won the Tony once, all the way back in 2001 for Proof. Sullivan seems overdue for a second Tony win, and I think The Little Foxes is the show that will bring it to him.

Will win: Daniel Sullivan, The Little Foxes
Should win: Abstain

Best Direction of a Musical

Tony nominees Mike Faist and Ben Platt in Dear Evan Hansen.

Nominees: Christopher Ashley, Come From Away; Rachel Chavkin, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812; Michael Greif, Dear Evan Hansen; Matthew Warchus, Groundhog Day; Jerry Zaks, Hello, Dolly!

I *have* seen all the nominees for Best Direction of a Musical, and with the exception of Matthew Warchus' overly busy, unfocused take on Groundhog Day I can easily make a case for any one of them. I have long admired Michael Greif's steady directorial hand in contemporary musicals, but despite helming some of the most influential shows of the past 20 years (including Rent and Next to Normal), Greif remains Tony-less. He really feels overdue for a win, and with Dear Evan Hansen he has once again taken a show that tackles big concepts and made it feel intensely personal.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, no one can argue four-time winner Jerry Zaks is overdue for a Tony, which I suspect will cause Tony voters to lean towards one of the other contenders. But one must also consider that Zaks has given us what may well be a perfect production Hello, Dolly!; it certainly feels like a definitive rendition of the old war horse, one that honors the iconic original production while also injecting new life into a show that was in very real danger of feeling dated. And with over 20 years between now and his last Tony win (for the 1992 Guys and Dolls revival), Zaks could prove to be a dark horse contender.

But ultimately, I think Tony voters will go with Rachel Chavkin's exhilarating, immersive staging of Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812, a show many doubted would survive the move from an intimate site-specific Off-Broadway production into a more traditional Broadway house. I'm not entirely sure the move was successful, but one can't deny that Chavkin is largely responsible for the most memorable aspects of the transfer, utilizing the cavernous Imperial Theatre to great effect. I personally am more impressed with Christopher Ashley's subtly brilliant work on Come From Away, but it probably isn't showy enough to beat out Chavkin.

Will Win: Rachel Chavkin, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812
Should Win: Michael Greif, Dear Evan Hansen

Best Choreography

Corey Cott, Laura Osnes, and the cast of the Bandstand.

Nominees: Andy Blankenbuehler, Bandstand; Peter Darling and Ellen Kane, Groundhog Day; Kelly Devine, Come From Away; Denis Jones, Holiday Inn; Sam Pinkleton, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

This is something of an odd category, as only two of the five nominated productions are what I would consider dance shows. The rest are more movement based, which is by no means a knock against them but does make it harder for me (and Tony voters) to justify giving them what is clearly a dance award.

Honestly, Andy Blankenbuehler probably deserves this award the most, as his shows are always kinetic masterpieces that are propelled by dance as much as anything else. But he just won for Hamilton, and without work that in inarguably better than everyone else's I have trouble imagining voters bestowing this award on him twice in a row. The only other show that is a clear dance show is Holiday Inn, which closed so long ago I feel like most people have forgotten about it (although Denis Jones' high energy work on "Shakin' the Blues Away" is the most memorable dance sequence of the season).

For me, Sam Pinkleton's work on Great Comet is trying way too hard, and the least successful segment of the show is also the one that most heavily features Pinkleton's work, the unnecessarily long "Balaga" number. Similarly, Peter Darling and Ellen Kane's work on Groundhog Day feels forced rather than growing naturally out of the narrative. I'm not sure anyone expects the tap number that appears late in Act II, and it isn't good enough to make you forget that it doesn't really belong. Which almost makes Kelly Devine's work on Come From Away the winner by default, as her choreography at least seamlessly blends with the staging and storytelling rather than being awkwardly inserted into it.

Will Win: Kelly Devine, Come From Away
Should Win: Andy Blankebeuhler, Bandstand

Be sure to check back soon for my predictions on the first of this year's acting categories. In the meantime, share your own thoughts in the comments, and don't forget to check out my previous 2017 Tony coverage.

Nominations React
Best Book and Score

2016 Tony Award Predictions: Direction and Choreography

Tony season is upon us, and all of Broadway is buzzing with excitement in preparation for the industry's big night. While speculation on winners seems more muted this year due to the presumed dominance of Hamilton, the fact of the matter is we had a very strong season with a lot of Tony-worthy work. Combined with Tony voters' recent penchant for spreading the wealth (you have to go back to the 2012 ceremony to find a single production that took home more than 5 awards), it's entirely possible Lin-Manuel Miranda's juggernaut loses a couple races. Not to mention the play categories, which Hamilton can't win and are fairly competitive this year.

As always, I will do my best to predict the winners in the direction, production, and acting categories. And since who will win does not always match up with who deserves to win, I will make sure to point out any discrepancies in my analysis.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Direction of a Play

Mark Strong (center) and the cast of A View from the Bridge.

Nominees: Rupert Gould, King Charles III; Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night; Joe Mantello, The Humans; Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed; Ivo Van Hove, A View from the Bridge

It's an incredibly competitive season when it comes to the directing races, and although it sounds cliche this year it truly is an honor just to be nominated. Tony voters don't have an easy decision to make when it comes to Best Direction of a Play, as this season in particular saw a number of bold directorial concepts driving some of the best reviewed works of the season.

I am a bit puzzled by Jonathan Kent's inclusion here, as his directorial choices for Long Day's Journey Into Night were at the heart of what didn't work for me in that revival (namely, the inconsistent acting styles and poorly conceived blocking). I think he can be ruled out of the running, as can Rupert Gould, mostly due to the fact that King Charles III has been closed long enough it appears to have faded from most people's memory. Liesl Tommy has done some absolutely lovely and subtle work on Eclipsed, but I fear she probably didn't put enough of her own personal stamp on the show to win, because whether it's fair or not the Tonys have a tendency to recognize flashier nominees. 

Which would also seem to rule out two-time Tony-winner Joe Mantello for the understated The Humans, but that production is one of the best reviewed plays of the season and a win for Mantello could be viewed as acknowledge of his work on it and the well respected Blackbird. There are few directors who can coax honest, complex performances out of their actors like Mantello, an exceedingly rare skill everyone in the industry recognizes and admires. But I ultimately think Tony voters will reward avante garde director Ivo van Hove, who afters years of working abroad and Off-Broadway burst onto the Great White Way this season with two incredibly well received revivals of Arthur Miller classics. Giving van Hove the prize allows voters to recognize the work he's done on both A View from the Bridge and the currently running The Crucible, the culmination of a season of boundary pushing work from the Belgian director.

Will & Should Win: Ivan van Hove, A View from the Bridge

Best Director of a Musical

The cast of the little musical that could, Hamilton.

Nominees: Michael Arden, Spring Awakening; John Doyle, The Color Purple; Scott Ellis, She Loves Me; Thomas Kail, Hamilton; George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along

Wow. The strength of this year's Best Director of a Musical nominees is just astounding. While many people expect Thomas Kail to take this award for his fascinating, fluid staging of Broadway's latest blockbuster, I suspect the actual vote will be a lot closer than expected, and if there's going to be a surprise on Tony night this category might be it. 

Scott Ellis' production of She Loves Me is practically perfect, one of the best representations of that musical gem we're ever likely to see, and his light but assured hand was essential in achieving that level of quality. John Doyle completely reconceived The Color Purple from the ground up, reclaiming it in the eyes of many critics who were underwhelmed by the original production. I have a couple of nitpicks with Doyle's directorial choices, but overall it is an outstanding production that could not have happened without him. And I'm even more impressed with Michael Arden's work on Spring Awakening; his use of American Sign Language didn't feel like a gimmick, but actually added new layers of meaning and beauty to a piece which became as much about the alienation of the deaf characters from the rest of society as it did about angsty teens singing rock songs.

But in the end, I do think Hamilton will prevail, and it's hard to argue with that outcome. The show is one of the single most electrifying evenings of theatre I've ever experienced, and the show's narrative clarity and theatrical effectiveness comes as much from Kail's staging as it does from Lin-Manuel Miranda's words and music.

Will & Should Win: Thomas Kail, Hamilton

Special Shout Out: Scott Ellis, She Loves Me

Best Choreography

Leslie Odom, Jr. and the cast of Hamilton performing "The Room Where It Happens."

Nominees: Andy Blankenbeuhler, Hamilton; Savion Glover, Shuffle Along; Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof; Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea; Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet

Can I just say how refreshing it is to see such strong nominees in this category? There was a period a few years ago where we were lucky if one musical a season produced Tony-worthy choreography, but ever since Newsies there has been a steady increase in the number of dance heavy shows on Broadway and I couldn't be happier. All of the nominated choreographers have distinctive, exciting styles that created some of the most memorable production numbers of the season.

That said, this is really a two horse race between Andy Blankenbeuhler and Savion Glover, as both men have created a bevy of inventive, pulse pounding routines for their respective shows. Glover's tap choreography is integral to almost all of the most effective moments in Shuffle Along, including the roof raising opening number and the edge of your seat tap battle in the middle of the show's second act. Blankenbeuhler's dancers barely stop moving throughout the entirety of Hamilton's three hour runtime, and for the first time in the previous Tony-winner's career I didn't find the effect distracting. I also adored his lyrical, abstract take on the show's climatic duel between Hamilton and Burr, one of the most beautiful and moving moments in the entire show. As both Blankenbeuhler and Glover already have Tony Awards it's hard to say either one is due, and while I have a *slight* preference for Glover's tap dancing I suspect Hamilton's momentum will bring Blankenbeuhler his second career win.

Will Win: Andy Blankenbeuhler, Hamilton

Should Win: Savior Glover, Shuffle Along

Let me know who you're rooting for in the comments, and be sure to check back soon for further Tony predictions. In the meantime, don't forget to check out my previous commentary below:

Best Book and Score

2015 Tony Predictions: Direction and Choreography

The 2015 Tony Awards are less than 3 weeks away, and all of Broadway is buzzing with speculation over who will be victorious come June 7th. Predicting Tony winners just so happens to be one of my favorite pastimes, and so I'm continuing my coverage of this year's ceremony by doing my best to select the people and productions most likely to walk away with that spinning statuette on Tony Sunday. Of course, the people who *will* win are not always the people who *deserve* to win, so I will also make sure to point out when I think the probable winner doesn't match up with the most deserving person/production. I've already discussed the musical writing awards, so now we move on to the people who tell the actors where to go and what to do: the directors and choreographers.

Best Direction of a Play

Tony nominee Alex Sharp (r) and Enid Graham in a scene from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

Nominees: Stephen Daldry, Skylight; Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Scott Ellis, You Can't Take It With You; Jeremy Herrin, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Moritz von Stuelpnagel, Hand to God

"It's a honor just to be nominated" sounds horribly cliche, but anyone in this category not named Marianne Elliott should definitely remember such tried and true advice come Broadway's big night. Elliott has helmed the most visually stunning play in several seasons, and much of The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's dazzle comes specifically from her staging rather than from the equally impressive production design (which is virtually guaranteed to win some Tonys on its own). Not only that, but Elliott somehow managed to keep her bold and daring staging in service of the story rather than letting it overwhelm the narrative, something a lesser director would surely struggle with.

The other productions in this category have been mostly praised for their top-notch acting, something the director definitely helps mold but is ultimately the creation of the performer (no matter how good a director Hand to God's Moritz von Stuelpnagel may be, you can't teach just anyone to do what Steven Boyer does in that show). Unfortunately for Stephen Daldry, Scott Ellis, and Jeremy Herrin, you have a put a pretty distinct directorial stamp on a show to be a true Tony contender, and their strengths this season lie primarily in getting out of the material's way rather than imposing their will upon it. This is Elliott's award to lose.

Will and Should Win: Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Direction of a Musical

The Bechdel family, the enigmatic clan at the certain of Off-Broadway transfer (and 2014 Pulitzer Prize finalist) Fun Home.

Nominees: Sam Gold, Fun Home; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; John Rando, On the Town; Bartlett Sher, The King and I; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

Now this is a tight race, and one that could conceivably go to any of the five highly deserving nominees. I'm going to go ahead and rule out both Casey Nicholaw and Christopher Wheeldon, as I suspect that should voters want to honor either gentleman they will do so in the Best Choreography category while using this race to recognize someone who is not a double nominee. And while I having nothing but respect for John Rando's refreshing, exuberant work on what many considered a hopelessly dated show, I don't think the On the Town director has a very good shot at winning such a competitive category.

Which leaves Sam Gold and Bartlett Sher, who are so neck and neck that you might as well toss a coin to determine the winner. Both helmed universally acclaimed spring productions that are still fresh in everyone's minds, and both shows owe a large part of their success to their excellent direction. The oft-performed King and I could easily have seemed tired and/or dated, but as Sher did with South Pacific several seasons ago the Tony-winning director has stripped any hint of artifice from the Rodgers and Hammerstein classic and allowed us to see the show afresh. Meanwhile, Gold has done absolutely extraordinary things with Fun Home, reimagining his Off-Broadway staging so completely that you would swear the entire piece was originally conceived and produced in the round. Gold has also guided his small cast to universally excellent performances that stick with you long after the final curtain, with several of his actors up for Tony Awards themselves.

Personally, I would vote for Sher, because ultimately The King and I affected and engaged me in a way Fun Home did not. Despite the many admirable elements of the Off-Broadway transfer, I couldn't connect with the characters on an emotional level even though their lives and concerns more closely mirrored my own experiences than Anna Leonowens' trip to Siam. However, I will fully admit that I seem to be in the minority regarding Fun Home's emotional effectiveness, which I think will ultimately be enough to give Gold the edge.

Will Win: Sam Gold, Fun Home
Should Win: Bartlett Sher, The King and I

Best Choreography

Tony nominees Leanne Cope and Robert Fairchild in one of many pas de deuxs they share in An American in Paris.

Nominees: Joshua Bergasse, On the Town; Christopher Gattelli, The King and I; Scott Graham and Stephen Hoggart, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

This is where I expect Tony voters will acknowledge all of Christopher Wheeldon's work on An American in Paris, one of the season's biggest surprises. Even disregarding its status as the most nominated musical of the season, by all accounts Paris is an enormous dance show with incredibly demanding choreography that is expertly realized by Wheeldon's top notch dancers. It's refreshing to see a new musical that places such an emphasis on dance, an art form that has been distressingly sparse on Broadway in recent years.

The downside to Wheeldon's likely win is that it doesn't leave room for acknowledgement of Joshua Bergasse's incredible choreography for On the Town. Most producers and directors would have trimmed or even cut at least some of the massive dance numbers when reviving On the Town for modern audiences, but thanks to Bergasse the revival's dancing is its strongest suit. Playful yet precise, Bergasse's dances call to mind the inventive whimsy of multiple Tony-winner Susan Stroman, and hopefully this Broadway newcomer will stick around for many years to come.

Bergasse is also the only legitimate threat to Wheeldon; previous winner Casey Nicholaw's Something Rotten! seems to be suffering from a bit of backlash (it didn't win a single Outer Critic's Circle Award despite having more nominations than any other production), and The King and I just doesn't have enough choreography for Christopher Gattelli to legitimately compete with shows literally overflowing with dance. And giving the Best Choreography Tony to a play in a season which saw such a high volume of traditional dancing is so unlikely that it hardly merits discussion.

Will and Should Win: Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris
Who I'd Like to Win Anyway: Joshua Beragsse, On the Town


Keep checking back in the coming weeks for more Tony predictions (updates hopefully every Monday and Friday). In my next post I'll delve into the acting awards, and until then you can read all of my previous Tony predictions below:

Tony Nominee React
Best Book and Score

Tony Game Change! What the Category Expansions Mean for This Year's Awards

An increase in the potential number of acting nominees certainly helps Jay Armstrong Johnson's and Alysha Umphress' Tony chances, not that On the Town's dynamic duo needed the boost.

Last week, the Tony Awards administration committee stealthily announced yet another rule change during their regularly scheduled eligibility decisions. Similar to last year's expansion of the maximum number of potential Best Musical, Play, and Revival nominees, this year's changes seem focused on spreading the love by increasing the slot count in several categories. Starting this season, the number of directing and acting nominees can be increased from their traditional caps as long as there are enough eligible productions. As last year's Tony races proved, just because the committee can select extra nominees doesn't mean they actually will, so we can't be sure any of these new powers will be exercised when the nominations are announced on April 28th.

That said, I would be shocked if the committee doesn't take advantage of their newfound ability to choose five nominees in the Director of a Play and Director of a Musical races. There only need to be seven qualifying productions to trigger the slot increase, a number Broadway has easily exceeded for the past several seasons. Since the direction categories make no distinction between new works and revivals, I can't imagine a year where the expansion isn't theoretically possible. And while the Tony committee opted to pass on selecting the maximum number of Best Musical nominees last year, there are so many talented and respected directors working on Broadway at the moment I suspect we'll be seeing five nominee races for the foreseeable future.

A similar allowance was made for the expansion of the Best Choreography category, although I find it unlikely the committee will use this option on a regular basis. If we're being blatantly honest, there has been a dearth of strong dance shows on Broadway in the past decade, although On the Town and the upcoming An American in Paris happily buck this trend. In recent years the nominations committee has used a Best Choreography nod as a way to honor director/choreographers who didn't make the directing list, as they did with Susan Stroman and Casey Nicholaw last year. With an extra slot available in the Best Director category, the committee will be able to focus on a smaller group of truly deserving choreographers.

The potential game changer lies in the acting categories now being able to expand to a possible seven(!) nominees under the right circumstances. While the idea of a seven-way race is certainly exciting - especially in the supporting categories, which often feature an abundance of deserving talent - I don't expect to see many seven nominee categories. The only way to nominate more than the traditional five performers is to have a tie for the fifth slot, something which is definitely possible but by no means guaranteed.

However, the relatively small number of Tony voters has many insiders convinced the competitive races are decided by a handful of votes. Since official tallies are never released we can't know for sure, but with the nominations committee comprised of only a fraction of the total number of voters I'm inclined to believe ties are not uncommon. The Theatre Wing's incredibly specific rules for tie breakers further supports the theory this issue comes up on at least a semi-regular basis. This new rule might shed some light on just how close Tony races are; if we see a lot of six and seven person acting races over the next few years, we'll know that ties are relatively common during the nominations process.

I certainly believe we'll see an increased number of nominees come May, but as last year proved the Tony committee is not interested in maxing out every category. They may not even have a ton of control over it, as everything is based on secret ballots and weighted votes to the point where even the nominators probably don't know the results until they're announced in late April. Also, while it would be awesome to give nominations to as many people as possible, keeping the number of honorees limited helps maintain the prestige of Broadway's highest honor.

So which specific shows and performers will benefit from these rule changes? Check back soon to see my extremely early predictions for this year's biggest races!

2014 Tony Predictions: Best Direction and Choreography

It's that time of year again.  With the 2014 Tony nominations announced and the awards ceremony set for Sunday, June 8th, all of Broadway is buzzing with speculation on who will win Broadway's highest honor.  Well, add my voice to the cacophony, because it's time once again for me to give my semi-educated opinion on who is most likely to win on Tony Sunday.  As in past years, I will be focusing primarily on what I call the Big 12 awards (Musical, Play, Revival, and the 8 acting categories), along with Direction, Choreography, Book, and Score. 

Through a time-honored combination of first hand experience, industry scuttlebutt, and gut feeling, I will be naming both the person or production I think most likely WILL win, along with who I think SHOULD win.  These two unfortunately do not always overlap; I am still upset with how the 2012 awards went down, particularly Best Actor in a Musical (Danny Burstein was ROBBED!) and Best Revival of a Musical (Follies was perfection).  Hopefully the voters will be a little more just this year, although without a clear front-runner in most of the categories I have a feeling we're in for at least one off-the-wall winner.  Now without further ado, let the predictions commence!

Best Direction of a Play

Stephen Fry has died of laughter, a common occurrence for audience members of Tim Carroll's all-male Twelfth Night

 

 

Nominees:  Tim Carroll, Twelfth Night; Michael Grandage, The Cripple of Inishmaan; Kenny Leon, A Raisin in the Sun; John Tiffany, The Glass Menagerie

 

 

It sure was nice of the Tony nominators to recognize Michael Grandage and Kenny Leon, but the idea that either one of them is in contention for the actual award is slightly ludicrous.  Leon's work on A Raisin in the Sun has drawn mixed reactions (once again, he has coaxed phenomenal performances out of his actresses while neglecting his central actor), and despite its 6 Tony nominations The Cripple of Inishmaan has almost no momentum behind it.  This race is firmly between the directors of last fall's critical darlings, Twelfth Night and The Glass Menagerie.  Both shows took put fresh spins on well-worn classics, although in my opinion only one of those spins actually proved illuminating to the text.  But I am in the minority when it comes to my low (extremely low) opinion of John Tiffany's work on Menagerie, and he could very well walk away with the top prize.  But considering Tiffany just won a directing Tony in 2012, and that Tim Carroll's production of Twelfth Night was the funniest, freshest production I have ever seen despite (because of?) his adherence to Shakespeare's original practices, I think Mr. Carroll is well-positioned for a much deserved win on Tony Sunday.

 

Will and Should Win:  Tim Carroll, Twelfth Night

 

Best Direction of a Musical

Being a serial killer didn't look nearly so enchanting in Sweeney Todd.

 

Nominees:  Warren Carlyle, After Midnight; Michael Mayer, Hedwig and the Angry Inch; Leigh Silverman, Violet; Darko Tresnjak, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

 

This is a much tighter race than Best Direction of a Play, with the only nominee I can't picture winning being Violet's Leigh Silverman.  Her work on the small scale musical has its charms, but the production as a whole is a tad underwhelming and the sheen of good reviews has already started to fade.  Director Warren Carlyle arguably had the most to do with his show's success, since the jazz review has no script to speak of and therefore draws all of its structure from the strength of Carlyle's direction and choreography (Carlyle is also the only director/choreographer to score dual nominations this year).  Unfortunately for Carlyle, Tony voters have a not-so-subtle bias against revues, which will probably keep him from actually winning here.

If I was handing out the Tonys, I would give this one to Michael Mayer's bravura work on Hedwig and the Angry Inch.  The show has survived the upgrade from small scale venues to a big Broadway house with its rebellious spirit intact, and that is wholly thanks to Mayer's alterations to the show's premise and his fluid staging.  Also, Neil Patrick Harris didn't just happen upon his stunning performance as the transgendered title character; that kind of magic is the clear product of an actor and director working together in full harmony.  But Darko Tresnjak is at the helm of the year's biggest Tony nominee, and thus gets to reap the benefits of the show's goodwill even though there is hardly anything special about his work on it.  Add in the fact that Mayer already has two Tonys and I'm inclined to think Tony voters will go with Broadway newcomer Tresnjak over the more seasoned Mayer.

Should Win:  Michael Mayer, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Will Win:  Darko Tresnjak, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Best Choreography

Who needs a pesky book getting in the way of all the production numbers?  Not After Midnight, that's for sure!

 

 

Nominees:  Warren Carlyle, After Midnight; Steven Hoggett and Kelly Devine, Rocky; Casey Nicholaw, Aladdin; Susan Stroman, Bullets Over Broadway

I have nothing but the utmost respect for 5-time Tony winner Susan Stroman, and honestly think her two Broadway outings this year (Big Fish and Bullets Over Broadway) were unfairly savaged by the press.  Her production numbers are always full of wit, invention, and an unbridled joy that is the hallmark of Golden Age Broadway, and her involvement will instantly make me more interested in a particular project.  All of that said, Bullets proved extremely divisive among critics and the backlash against the show will prevent her from winning this year.  And while Rocky makes some interesting use of movement, there's just not enough of it to really merit a Tony win.

As a double nominee, Warren Carlyle may be in the best position here.  A win for Carlyle would be an acknowledgement of all his work on the production (similar to how Jerry Mitchell's win last year was an acknowledgement of all of his work on Kinky Boots, not just the choreography) while also leaving Best Director open for someone else.  But the same argument could also be used in favor of Casey Nicholaw, and Best Choreography is his only chance at being acknowledged for all he did to make Aladdin a success.  Nicholaw crafted the year's most buzzed about showstopper - "Friend Like Me" routinely draws standing ovations despite the fact it occurs in the middle of the first act - but Carlyle has won several of the guild awards, making this one a true toss up.  Given this is probably After Midnight's best chance at Tony glory, I think voters will give this to Carlyle, although I would not at all be surprised if Nicholaw won instead.

Should Win:  Casey Nicholaw, Aladdin
Will Win:  Warren Carlyle, After Midnight


That concludes the first entry in my annual round of Tony predictions.  Keep checking back over the next 3 weeks as I work my way through the rest of the big categories, and we'll find out how well (or poorly) I did on June 8th.  Until then, check out the rest of my 2014 Tony coverage below:

2014 Tony Nominations React

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Choreography and Direction

Now that the 2013 Tony nominations have been announced and we’ve all had time to process who’s in the running for Broadway’s biggest honor, it’s time to get down to my favorite part of the awards season: wild speculation about the eventual winners!  Okay, maybe not “wild,” as I really do try to have an informed opinion about these things, but the simple truth of the matter is I can’t see every nominated show and sometimes have to base my predictions on media buzz and second-hand info. 

Like last year, I’ll be writing a series of articles giving detailed analysis of the major Tony races, along with predictions of who will win in each category.  And if I think another nominee is more deserving than the probable winner, I’ll be sure to point that out too.  Unlike last year, you can also look forward to a roundtable podcast discussion in early June where the entire panel will chime in on who they think will win each of the Big 12 (production and acting) categories.  And with all of that said, let’s look at the nominees for Best Choreography and Best Direction!

Best Chorography

Billy Porter and the cast of the high kicking musical Kinky Boots

Nominees:  Andy Blankenbuehler, Bring It On; Peter Darling, Matilda the Musical; Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots; Chet Walker, Pippin

This year saw Broadway choreography move away from dance in the traditional sense, which makes predicting the winner in this category more difficult than usual.  Andy Blankenbuehler’s cheerleading routines for Bring It On were easily the musical’s highlight, but the fact that the show closed months ago combined with the lack of traditional dance moves will probably keep him out of serious contention.  And while Pippin features the most visually arresting musical numbers of the Broadway season, my gut tells me that Tony voters credit Diane Paulus and Gypsy Snider for its success more than choreographer Chet Walker.

Like many races this season, the category will probably come down to Kinky Boots and Matilda.  Boots is hardly Jerry Mitchell’s best work from a purely choreographic standpoint, but voters may feel like the well-respected director/choreographer is long overdue for a second Tony Award; despite six career nominations in this category, he’s only won once.  A win for Mitchell also allows the voters to recognize his contributions to this season’s most nominated musical while freeing up the Best Director statuette for someone else.  Although Matilda’s Peter Darling has won this award before, my gut tells me that despite his show’s rapturous critical reception Kinky Boots is going to be the big winner on Tony Sunday, including in this category.

Should Win:  Andy Blankenbuehler, Bring It On

Will Win:  Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots

 

Best Direction of a Play

Pam MacKinnon's knockout production of the classic Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Nominees:  Pam MacKinnon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; Nicholas Martin, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Bartlett Sher, Golden Boy; George C. Wolfe, Lucky Guy

 

With the exception of Vanya and Sonia’s Nicholas Martin, every member of this category is a repeat nominee.  I think that kind of pedigree will keep Martin out of serious contention, especially given the Tony voters’ bias against comedic plays.  And while Lucky Guy is one of the biggest financial successes of the spring, I’m sensing that the theatrical community at large is starting to feel that their nostalgia for the late Nora Ephron led to a decent play being praised more than it actually merits, which will hurt George C. Wolfe’s chances.

Both Bartlett Sher and Pam MacKinnon managed to pull of the deceptively hard task to making old plays feel fresh without betraying their original intent or layering on a directorial concept that seems inorganic and contrived.  The critical hosannas that greeted both plays were deafening, and in this case I think the Tony voters will opt to recognize MacKinnon over Sher.  Virginia Woolf is a play that industry folks have studied and seen produced countless times; the fact that MacKinnon managed to find something fresh in this oft-produced work, coupled with her ability to coax four absolutely incredible performances out of her actors, practically demands she receive Broadway’s highest honor.

Will & Should Win:  Pam MacKinnon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

 

Best Direction of a Musical

With Pippin, director Diane Paulus has managed to top her own lofty standards.

 

Nominees:  Scott Ellis, The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots; Diane Paulus, Pippin; Matthew Warcus, Matilda

 

I won’t mince words here:  a win by anyone other than Diane Paulus would be criminal here.  More than any other nominee, Paulus has put such a distinctive stamp on her show that separating the two is nigh-impossible.  She is simply one of the best directors working today, able to apply exciting new concepts to shows most would have written off as hopelessly dated without violating the spirit and artistic vision of the original.  Her Pippin is magical, thanks largely to her insistence on the addition of the circus elements and razor sharp direction that goes a long way towards disguising the show’s narrative flaws.  Factor in the fact that she was also responsible for the Tony-winning Hair and Porgy and Bess, and Paulus is long overdue for some Tony love.

Thankfully, I don’t think any of the other directors really have a chance of dethroning her.  Scott Ellis performed the neat trick of taking a terrible show and making it eminently entertaining, but as the only show not currently running his Drood is at a distinct disadvantage.  And despite several Broadway outings as director, Jerry Mitchell is still viewed primarily as a choreographer and is unlikely to score an upset.  Tony voters’ affection for Matilda’s Matthew Warcus has cooled considerably from its heyday several seasons ago, and while he is Paulus’ biggest competition I just can’t imagine him overthrowing the reigning Queen of the Broadway Musical.

Will & Should Win:  Diane Paulus, Pippin

 

That’s all for now.  Check back soon for my picks for Best Book and Score!

2012 Tony Predictions: Choreography and Direction

The time has come.  With a little over two weeks left until the Tony Awards ceremony on June 10^th, it’s time for me to get out my crystal ball and predict who will be the winners and losers on Broadway’s big night. But before I start prognosticating, let me mention a couple of caveats: 

1) I haven’t actually seen all of the nominated productions, as I ran out of time and money long before I ran out of shows to see.  But given my 82% success rate in predicting the nominees, I think it’s safe to say I have some idea what I’m talking about. 

2) These are my predictions of who will win, not who should win, which is an important distinction to make.  Like any entertainment award, a fair amount of politics comes into play when determining the winners, especially when a large number of Tony voters are producers themselves and therefore biased.  Which is why in every category, I will pick the nominee who will win and also point out the person I think should win, which is not necessarily the same individual.  Any discrepancies will be addressed in the body of the article.

Now that we’ve laid out the ground rules, let’s get started!

Best Choreography

Nominees:  Rob Ashford, Evita; Christopher Gattelli, Newsies; Steven Hoggett, Once; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It

The chances of Evita winning a Best Choreography Tony are almost zero, despite some stunning dance sequences that managed to convert this Rob Ashford naysayer into a fan.  The overall production and especially its star were simply too disappointing to too many people.  And while certainly innovative and theatrical, I don’t see Steven Hoggett’s work on Once triumphing over the “real” dancing in the other nominated shows (that show’s playbill credits him with “movement” rather than full-fledged “choreography).

Kathleen Marshall has won this award three times before, most recently for the still running Anything Goes, which automatically makes her a major contender.  In my opinion, she is one of the most consistent and creative choreographers working today, and her musical staging for Nice Work is the only thing about that particular show which isn’t imminently predictable.  But her recent win combined with the lack of a true showstopper in Nice Work’s – nothing in it comes close to the heights achieved by her “Anything Goes” or “Blow, Gabriel, Blow” – could lead voters to give someone else a moment in the limelight.

That someone would be Christopher Gattelli and his work on Newsies.  The one thing against him is the fact that while superbly executed, a lot of the choreography lacks innovation.  Most of the routines look like combinations you would find in an admittedly advanced jazz class, a problem which kept Memphis from even being nominated two years ago.  But the Tony committee will surely want to give Newsies some recognition for becoming one of the spring’s biggest success stories, and I predict two-time Tony nominee Christopher Gattelli will become Tony-winner Christopher Gattelli on June 10^th.

Will Win: Christopher Gattelli

Should Win:  Kathleen Marshall

Best Direction of a Play

Nominees:  Nicholas Hytner (One Man, Two Guvnors); Pam MacKinnon (ClybournePark); Mike Nichols (Death of a Salesman); Roger Rees and Alex Timbers (Peter and the Starcatcher)

After years of Broadway being dominated by British imports, I think the Tony voters are going to finally start rewarding Americans for their contributions to the legitimate theatre.  Which means Nicholas Hytner and his work on One Man, Two Guvnors is out.  I must also disqualify Pam MacKinnon, as I think most of the credit for that show’s success is being given to Bruce Norris’ script and its stellar acting ensemble.

Which leaves Mike Nichols and the combined talents of Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, all of whom were integral to the success of their respective shows.  Death of a Salesman is an acknowledged classic, but Nichols’ direction makes the entire production gel in a way that justifies the existence of this latest revival.  While everyone recognizes that the inventive staging has been the key to Peter and the Starcatcher’s success, I have to give the edge to Nichols.  He is an industry giant who commands an enormous amount of respect (see his seven previous Best Direction Tonys as proof), Salesman has become one of the theatrical events of the spring.  Rees and Timbers could score an upset, but I find it highly unlikely.

Will & Should Win:  Mike Nichols

Best Direction of a Musical

Nominees:  Jeff Calhoun, Newsies; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Diane Paulus, Porgy and Bess; John Tiffany, Once

If Newsies had opened in April instead of March, I would be predicting a virtual sweep for Disney’s tale of dancing newsboys, but just enough time has passed for the theatrical community to realize that for all of its merits, there is simply better work being done this year.  Direction awards tend to be higher-minded than some of the other categories, and Newsies simply isn’t up to that standard.  Similarly, Marshall’s serviceable job on Nice Work is by no means her best, and for a woman more respected as a choreographer than a director it simply isn’t enough to net her a Best Director trophy.

John Tiffany is the clear front runner here.  Once is the most nominated production of the season, and also the most artistically daring.  Without the delicately realized mood and pacing provided by Tiffany’s direction, Once would collapse under the weight of its own ambitions, instead of emerging as arguably the best new musical of the season. 

I think Diane Paulus has done sensational work on Porgy, and few directors have her gift of making the stagecraft behind the blocking seem so completely organic.  She has successfully brought the show into the 21^st century, and made a classic opera seem real and immediate in a way I would not have thought possible.  Unfortunately for Paulus, there are enough purists who cannot accept Porgy as anything other than a 4-hour opera, and while I loved her interpretation I can understand why some people would feel that way.  For a production whose Broadway prospects were once in question – thanks to that infamous letter from Mr. Sondheim – Paulus should consider her inclusion among this year’s nominees a victory in itself.  Without the burden of preconceived notions, Tiffany was free to do whatever he wished with Once, and the results are totally transfixing and definitely Tony worthy.

Will & Should Win:  John Tiffany (although Paulus is a very close second)

That’s it for now, but check back throughout the next two weeks for more of my 2012 Tony predictions!