2012 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

And then there were two.  The only categories left to discuss are the two biggest awards of any Tony season, Best Play and Best Musical.  Winning either of these awards has a major effect on a show’s future prospects, ensuring a high profile that makes the work one of the first scripts regional and amateur theatres assess when programming their upcoming seasons.  For musicals especially, winning this award provides a document box office boost, increasing the length of the show’s run and raising the chances of it actually turning a profit.

As always, I must point out a couple of caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated productions; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which is not the same as who should win.  History is riddled with examples of Tony’s top honor going to something other than the season’s best (find me one person who honestly believes The Music Man is a better overall show than West Side Story), and if that seems to be the case this year, I will say as much in the body of the article.

Best Play

Nominees:  Clybourne Park, Other Desert Cities, Peter and the Starcatcher, Venus in Fur

Since there is no separate playwriting category, the Best Play award functions as an acknowledgement of both the production as a whole and the script in particular, raising the desirability of a win in this category.  For the first time in years, every single nominee is a new American play, a refreshing change of pace from the recent domination of British shows winning this award.

While all of these plays are worthy, this is really a two-way race between Clybourne Park and Other Desert Cities.  Venus is Fur is a lean and thought-provoking work featuring two dazzling performances, but its early season opening has resulting in it losing a lot of buzz to more recent works.  And while many theatregoers are completely enamored with Peter and the Starcatcher, it will struggle to overcome its image as a kids’ play, something the high-minded Tony voters tend to scoff at no matter how well done.  Many would also argue that the direction has as much if not more to do with the Peter’s success than the actual script, a major problem since a Best Play win doubles as a writing honor.

Both Clybourne Park and Other Desert Cities have a lot of elements that Tony voters look for in potential Best Play winners.  Both are ensemble driven pieces that tackle serious issues with a healthy mix of humor and pathos, expertly acted and directed by some of the most talented people in the business.  And from a financial standpoint, Other Desert Cities is one of the most successful plays in years, having sustained strong box office and word of mouth despite being open for the better part of a year (name the last play that opened in October and was still running in early June).  In any other year, it would be the show to beat.

But there is something about Clybourne Park that compels people to vote for it.  While Cities had to settle for being “only” a Pulitzer Prize finalist, the racially charged Clybourne won the prestigious award in 2011.  The show does seem like a new type of play, whereas Cities is very much in the mold of the dozens of family dramas that have come before it.  Helped by a pitch perfect cast who has been with the show since its Off-Broadway premiere, Clybourne Park has the most momentum going into this evening, and I expect Tony voters to crown it this year’s Best Play.

Will Win:  Clybourne Park
Should Win:  Other Desert Cities

Best Musical

Nominees:  Leap of Faith, Newsies, Nice Work If You Can Get It, Once

I have no idea who the Leap of Faith producers paid off to get their critically panned show included among this year’s Best Musical nominees, especially considering the show’s dismal box office and premature closing indicate they didn’t have a lot of money to use for such bribery.  Granted, this has not been a great year for new musicals, especially compared to last year’s incredibly strong crop of new shows, but I have to believe there was a more deserving potential nominee.  But all the money in the world couldn’t secure Faith a win in this category, so I guess there isn’t too much harm done.

Nice Work If You Can Get It really should be better than it actually is, but as last year’s Women on the Verge proved, putting a bunch of past Tony winners in the same room does not automatically produce Tony-worthy work.  Nice Work is perfectly serviceable, but there is nothing exciting or overly interesting about this by the numbers show.  Most of the people involved seem to be there only for the paycheck rather than a love of the material, as evidenced by the lackadaisical performances of both Matthew Broderick and, I hate to say it, Kelli O’Hara.  Kathleen Marshall would have been better off spending the year collecting Anything Goes royalty checks, and I can only hope her next show marks a return to form for the very talented choreographer/director.

From the moment its Broadway transfer was announced, I knew Newsies would be a frontrunner for the Best Musical trophy.  It is easily the most commercial new musical of the season, and potential touring profits have been a deciding factor in this category more than once.  The show’s family friendly song and dance routine is definitely entertaining, and now that Disney has finally stopped playing coy and announced the show for an open-ended run, I expect Newsies to easily outlast the rest of this season’s new shows.  It is not high art, but it is well-done escapist entertainment, which wins the Tony more often than not.

However, I think Disney got the timing wrong on this one.  Had the show opened in April instead of in March, it would still be riding high on its post-opening buzz and sail into an easy Tony victory.  But the show has been running just long enough that we are starting to see some backlash against its lowly ambitions, and the flaws in its slickly-presented façade are more apparent in hindsight.  And the people who realize that Newsies isn’t quite as good as Disney would have you believe will surely vote for Once as the season’s best new show.

At first I was skeptical of Once, fearing this stage adaptation of an Oscar-winning indie film would quickly devolve into two-and-a-half hours of emotionally manipulative sentimentality accompanied by plaintive singer-songwriter style music.  But the show won me over with its expert execution and genuine heart, moving me in a way no other new musical has this season.  While small in scale, Once is large in ambition, and I’m happy to say is succeeds in achieving its lofty goals.  There is more invention and feeling in Once than in the other nominees combined, and the cherry on top of this musical sundae are two fantastic leading performances by breakout stars Steve Kazee and Cristin Milioti.

Once deserves the Best Musical trophy.  It is the best written show of the year, and the acting is the most truthful and heartfelt I’ve seen all season.  No one should be surprised if Newsies takes the prize tonight (I certainly won’t be), but I think Once has built up enough momentum that it might actually triumph over Disney’s pre-ordained classic.  Yes, this year has not been a great one for new musicals, but these two shows are definitely worthy of Broadway and beyond.

Will and Should Win:  Once

And that’s it for my 2012 Tony predictions!  Tune in to the Tony Awards telecast tonight at 8 to see how I did, and check back in the coming days for my reaction to Broadway’s biggest night.  If you’ve missed any of my previous prediction blogs, check them out below:

Best Revival

Best Actor (*Note:  I’ve amended my prediction for Best Actor in a Musical.  A lot of people seem to think Jeremy Jordan has this one in the bag, and since he was a close second for me I’ve upgraded him to “Will Win.”  Danny Burstein still “should win,” but I’m thinking this is Jordan’s year.)
Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

Now we arrive at the two most competitive categories of the year:  Best Actress in a Play and Best Actress in a Musical.  With so many sterling performances by Broadway’s leading ladies this year, choosing just one seems criminal, but I will do my best.  Please keep in mind my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominees (at least in the play categories); and 2) Who will win is not necessarily the same as who should win, a difference I will explain in more detail throughout the body of the article.

Best Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur; Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow; Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities; Linda Lavin, The Lyons; Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Where do I even begin?  All five of these women gave critically lauded performances in well-reviewed productions, meaning the eventual winner will be determined as much by buzz as actual merit.  While all of the nominees are Tony-worthy, I think Cynthia Nixon has the least chance of winning.  Yes, critics adored Nixon’s turn as a college professor with terminal cancer, and the same role won actress Kathleen Chalfant every acting prize she was eligible for when Wit premiered Off-Broadway 14 years ago.  But with her show now closed, Nixon doesn’t have the chance to remind Tony voters how well she stacks up against the competition.

Linda Lavin and Nina Arianda have the advantage of being in currently running plays, but they somehow haven’t amassed the same level of buzz as their competition.  Lavin famously passed on the Broadway transfers of both Follies and Other Desert Cities in order to do The Lyons, and despite her tour de force performance the show hasn’t really caught on with critics or audiences.  Nina Arianda is two for two when it comes to Tony nods (she was also nominated for her Broadway debut last year), but Venus in Fur opened so long ago that I fear she’ll be forgotten despite Venus being in the running for Best Play.  She could be a dark horse candidate, but by definition dark horses are not the most likely winners.

The real contenders are Tracie Bennett and Stockard Channing, who are both giving the type of over the top diva performances Tony voters love.  Channing finds every shade imaginable in her domineering mother character from Other Desert Cities, and for much of the season was considered the front runner for this award.  But then Tracie Bennett arrived and became the talk of the town for her performance as a drug-addled, aging Judy Garland in End of the Rainbow.  Convincingly portraying a beloved icon with such ardent fans is no small feat, and since she utterly dominates Rainbow (as opposed to the more ensemble-oriented Other Desert Cities), I think the Best Actress trophy is Bennett’s to lose.  I’ll be rooting for Arianda, who has twice proven she is an extraordinary talent and a superstar in the making, but the smart money is on Bennett.

Will Win:  Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

Should Win:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Best Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Jan Maxwell, Follies; Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess; Cristin Milioti, Once; Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde

There is no doubt in my mind Kelli O’Hara, with her versatility and crystal-clear singing voice, will eventually win herself a Tony.  But it won’t be for Nice Work If You Can Get It, an underwhelming musical that is by no means her best work.  Similarly, if Laura Osnes continues to improve the way she has since getting her big break in the last Grease revival, she will someday find herself in possession of the coveted statuette.  But with Bonnie & Clyde unfairly trounced by critics and having shuttered ages ago, Osnes is also effectively out of the running.

The remaining three contenders have each done fantastic work this season, and a convincing argument could be made for any one of them to win Best Actress.  Ultimately, I think being a first-time nominee will keep the sensational Cristin Milioti from winning, with the Tony voters reasoning that she has plenty of time left to win the award.  That is not a knock against her amazing performance in Once; I would argue she is the best thing about that incredibly strong show.

But perennial Tony favorites Audra McDonald and Jan Maxwell have both exceeded all possible expectations this year.  Jan Maxwell was a revelation in Follies, stopping the show twice with her two big numbers.  She made the acerbic Phyllis endlessly compelling, slowly stripping away character’s icy veneer to reveal the damaged soul underneath.  It was a master class in musical theatre acting, and combined with the fact that this four-time nominee has never won, that makes her the one the beat in many people’s eyes.

Meanwhile Audra McDonald, the universally beloved singing actress, has one Tony for each of Maxwell’s nominations.  It would be perfectly logically for the Tony voters to spread the wealth, especially since we all knew McDonald would be excellent in Porgy and Bess, a role she was born to play.  But it is impossible to comprehend just how amazing her Bess is without seeing it, and I suspect even her biggest fans would find themselves surprised by what a masterful portrayal it is.  McDonald conveys more with her posture and body language than most actresses can in an entire song, and some of the most riveting moments in Porgy are the dialogue-free scenes where you watch Bess’ inner struggle to overcome her self-destructive tendencies.  And when McDonald does sing, she achieves such operatic heights of vocal technique and emotion that it is truly transcendent.

I’ve been agonizing over which actress is more deserving for months, and in many ways the race is still too close to call.  But call it I must, and my gut is favoring McDonald, despite her almost unprecedented four previous wins.  Unlike Maxwell, whose show closed in January, McDonald is still performing nightly and therefore reminding the Tony voters of her nearly unmatched talent.  Her Bess is one for the ages, and probably her best work to date, an especially high compliment when those four other Tony Awards are taken into consideration.  But if ever there was a tie for Best Actress, this would be the year.

Will Win:  Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess

Should Win:  Audra McDonald AND Jan Maxwell (they are both perfection)

Check back soon for my Best Actor predictions.  Until then, catch up on my previous Tony articles:

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress
Best Score and Book
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Before I continue my 2012 Tony Award predictions, here’s a quick recap of the two caveats I elaborated on in my first article:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win (reasons for any variance in the two will be elaborated in the article).

Since Tony night is fast approaching, let’s not waste any more time!

Best Book of a Musical

Nominees:  Douglas Carter Beane, Lysistrata Jones; Harvey Fierstein, Newsies; Joe DiPietro, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Enda Walsh, Once

I died a little inside when I read that Douglas Carter Beane was nominated for his atrocious book to Lysistrata Jones.  Beane managed to completely remove the anti-war allegory that’s allowed the Greek Lysistrata to withstand the test of time, and replaced it with poorly developed characters and painfully unfunny one-liners.  He doesn’t deserve to be nominated, and rest assured there is no way he can possibly win (the fact that Lysistrata closed months ago is the final nail in Beane’s coffin).

I would put Harvey Fierstein’s libretto for Newsies and Joe DiPietro’s book for Nice Work on the same level artistically.  Both are perfectly serviceable scripts, free of any glaring plot holes or structural weaknesses.  Both segue nicely into their respective musical numbers while simultaneously crafting characters with the illusion of depth, even if many of them lack actual substance.  Unfortunately, neither libretto takes the extra steps necessary to qualify as Tony-worthy.  The book scenes in both shows primarily serve as filler in between the musical numbers, rather than adding much of substance to their respective shows.

By contrast, Enda Walsh’s book for Once approaches the depth and quality of a play script.  Despite some very long scenes (at least by musical theatre standards), the Once libretto remains engrossing and provides information that greatly enhances the already strong emotional impact of the show’s songs.  Once relies on such a delicately established mood that it would not work without the Walsh’s first rate contributions, and he will deservedly take home the Tony for his efforts on June 10^th.

Will & Should Win:  Enda Walsh, Once

Best Original Score

Nominees:  Frank Wildhorn & Don Black, Bonnie and Clyde; Alan Menken & Jack Feldman, Newsies; Grant Olding, One Man, Two Guvnors; Wayne Barker & Rick Elice, Peter and the Starcatcher

I could (and probably should) write an entire blog entry about the sorry state of musical theatre composition.  The fact that two of the four Best Original Score nominations went to plays instead of musicals proves how little good work is being done in this area.  Unfortunately, the year’s strongest score – the haunting and beautiful Once – was written for another medium and is therefore ineligible.  But while the Tony committee has shown a willingness to nominate play scores in the past few years, I don’t think they are prepared to actually give the prize to a non-musical, which rules out both One Man, Two Guvnors and Peter and the Starcatcher. 

Which leaves Bonnie & Clyde and Newsies, with their oft-nominated but so far unrewarded composers.  Now, if you had told me a year ago that Frank “Modulation” Wildhorn would be the most deserving of a Best Score Tony, I would have laughed in your face.  But this time round Wildhorn wrote a genuinely theatrical score, with many of the songs containing actual narrative action rather than an endless series of ever-higher money notes.  He has successfully fused the bluegrass and folk idioms with show music, and many of the show’s ballads are genuinely beautiful as opposed to his usual manufactured bombast.  All of this, combined with weak competition, makes Bonnie & Clyde legitimately the strongest work nominated this year.

Unfortunately for Wildhorn, there’s clearly no overcoming the tarnished reputation his past work has earned him.  Having his name on the marquee caused Bonnie & Clyde to be unfairly trashed by critics, and the show closed within a month of opening.  Meanwhile Newsies was embraced by critics and has been playing to near sell-out business, and its composer Alan Menken has managed to maintain a high reputation among the theatre elite despite some questionable shows of his own.  For all of its repetitiveness and overly-earnest emotion, Newsies does feature several catchy numbers and one genuinely inventive solo for its leading lady.  And since Menken has never won the big award, the committee will likely give him a Tony statuette that will in name be for this show, but will really be for his body of work.

Will Win:  Alan Menken, Newsies

Should Win:  Frank Wildhorn, Bonnie & Clyde (yes, I really just typed that)

That’s it for now.  Join me next time as I begin dissecting which performers have done award-worthy work this past season.

2012 Tony Predictions: Choreography and Direction

The time has come.  With a little over two weeks left until the Tony Awards ceremony on June 10^th, it’s time for me to get out my crystal ball and predict who will be the winners and losers on Broadway’s big night. But before I start prognosticating, let me mention a couple of caveats: 

1) I haven’t actually seen all of the nominated productions, as I ran out of time and money long before I ran out of shows to see.  But given my 82% success rate in predicting the nominees, I think it’s safe to say I have some idea what I’m talking about. 

2) These are my predictions of who will win, not who should win, which is an important distinction to make.  Like any entertainment award, a fair amount of politics comes into play when determining the winners, especially when a large number of Tony voters are producers themselves and therefore biased.  Which is why in every category, I will pick the nominee who will win and also point out the person I think should win, which is not necessarily the same individual.  Any discrepancies will be addressed in the body of the article.

Now that we’ve laid out the ground rules, let’s get started!

Best Choreography

Nominees:  Rob Ashford, Evita; Christopher Gattelli, Newsies; Steven Hoggett, Once; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It

The chances of Evita winning a Best Choreography Tony are almost zero, despite some stunning dance sequences that managed to convert this Rob Ashford naysayer into a fan.  The overall production and especially its star were simply too disappointing to too many people.  And while certainly innovative and theatrical, I don’t see Steven Hoggett’s work on Once triumphing over the “real” dancing in the other nominated shows (that show’s playbill credits him with “movement” rather than full-fledged “choreography).

Kathleen Marshall has won this award three times before, most recently for the still running Anything Goes, which automatically makes her a major contender.  In my opinion, she is one of the most consistent and creative choreographers working today, and her musical staging for Nice Work is the only thing about that particular show which isn’t imminently predictable.  But her recent win combined with the lack of a true showstopper in Nice Work’s – nothing in it comes close to the heights achieved by her “Anything Goes” or “Blow, Gabriel, Blow” – could lead voters to give someone else a moment in the limelight.

That someone would be Christopher Gattelli and his work on Newsies.  The one thing against him is the fact that while superbly executed, a lot of the choreography lacks innovation.  Most of the routines look like combinations you would find in an admittedly advanced jazz class, a problem which kept Memphis from even being nominated two years ago.  But the Tony committee will surely want to give Newsies some recognition for becoming one of the spring’s biggest success stories, and I predict two-time Tony nominee Christopher Gattelli will become Tony-winner Christopher Gattelli on June 10^th.

Will Win: Christopher Gattelli

Should Win:  Kathleen Marshall

Best Direction of a Play

Nominees:  Nicholas Hytner (One Man, Two Guvnors); Pam MacKinnon (ClybournePark); Mike Nichols (Death of a Salesman); Roger Rees and Alex Timbers (Peter and the Starcatcher)

After years of Broadway being dominated by British imports, I think the Tony voters are going to finally start rewarding Americans for their contributions to the legitimate theatre.  Which means Nicholas Hytner and his work on One Man, Two Guvnors is out.  I must also disqualify Pam MacKinnon, as I think most of the credit for that show’s success is being given to Bruce Norris’ script and its stellar acting ensemble.

Which leaves Mike Nichols and the combined talents of Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, all of whom were integral to the success of their respective shows.  Death of a Salesman is an acknowledged classic, but Nichols’ direction makes the entire production gel in a way that justifies the existence of this latest revival.  While everyone recognizes that the inventive staging has been the key to Peter and the Starcatcher’s success, I have to give the edge to Nichols.  He is an industry giant who commands an enormous amount of respect (see his seven previous Best Direction Tonys as proof), Salesman has become one of the theatrical events of the spring.  Rees and Timbers could score an upset, but I find it highly unlikely.

Will & Should Win:  Mike Nichols

Best Direction of a Musical

Nominees:  Jeff Calhoun, Newsies; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Diane Paulus, Porgy and Bess; John Tiffany, Once

If Newsies had opened in April instead of March, I would be predicting a virtual sweep for Disney’s tale of dancing newsboys, but just enough time has passed for the theatrical community to realize that for all of its merits, there is simply better work being done this year.  Direction awards tend to be higher-minded than some of the other categories, and Newsies simply isn’t up to that standard.  Similarly, Marshall’s serviceable job on Nice Work is by no means her best, and for a woman more respected as a choreographer than a director it simply isn’t enough to net her a Best Director trophy.

John Tiffany is the clear front runner here.  Once is the most nominated production of the season, and also the most artistically daring.  Without the delicately realized mood and pacing provided by Tiffany’s direction, Once would collapse under the weight of its own ambitions, instead of emerging as arguably the best new musical of the season. 

I think Diane Paulus has done sensational work on Porgy, and few directors have her gift of making the stagecraft behind the blocking seem so completely organic.  She has successfully brought the show into the 21^st century, and made a classic opera seem real and immediate in a way I would not have thought possible.  Unfortunately for Paulus, there are enough purists who cannot accept Porgy as anything other than a 4-hour opera, and while I loved her interpretation I can understand why some people would feel that way.  For a production whose Broadway prospects were once in question – thanks to that infamous letter from Mr. Sondheim – Paulus should consider her inclusion among this year’s nominees a victory in itself.  Without the burden of preconceived notions, Tiffany was free to do whatever he wished with Once, and the results are totally transfixing and definitely Tony worthy.

Will & Should Win:  John Tiffany (although Paulus is a very close second)

That’s it for now, but check back throughout the next two weeks for more of my 2012 Tony predictions!

"Falling Slowly" Under Your Spell

Review: Once

The utterly entrancing Steve Kazee and Cristin Milioti, stars of the new musical Once

It is exceedingly difficult to accurately describe Once, the new musical based on the 2006 indie film of the same name.  How does one describe something so groundbreaking and original that any analogy or point of reference seems woefully inadequate for the task?  That indescribability proves to be the strongest of Once’s many assets; the show is a wholly new creation that forces you to reconsider exactly what a Broadway musical can be, and it is easily the strongest new work of the current season.

The plot concerns the budding romance between Guy and Girl (the two leads are never named, lending universality to their very complicated and specific emotions).  Guy, an aspiring musician who works in his father’s vacuum repair shop, has all but given up on life after a particularly hard breakup with his unseen girlfriend.  One day Girl whisks into his life, and after hearing him sing insists he pursue his music career so his songs can be heard by a wider audience.  Over the course of one week, the pair struggles to raise the money to record Guy’s music, and finds their bond growing deeper and more complex by the hour.

In most shows, this situation would end in one of two predictable ways.  Either Guy and Girl would get together and live happily ever after, or one of them would end up dead in a tragic tale of unrequited live.  Once foregoes both of these options for something more subdued and ultimately more moving, portraying the reality of such situations in a way few musicals dare.  The deceptively simple plot gives way to a startling emotional complexity, and will stick with you for days after the final curtain falls.

This depth is conveyed by all aspects of the production, and is especially aided by the haunting folk-influenced score by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova (who won the Best Song Oscar for their work on the film version).  Sparse instrumental interludes give way to lush, sweeping choruses overflowing with emotion.  The lilting ballads are mesmerizing, delivered as they are with such sensitivity and musicianship by the stellar cast, all of whom play their own instruments.  Once demonstrates how music is truly the universal language, for even when the lyrics become muffled or hard to decipher (an occurrence which happens a tad too much for this reviewer’s taste) the emotional intent of each song is abundantly clear.

The cast is uniformly excellent, offering up the best dramatic acting seen in a Broadway musical in years.  As Guy, Steve Kazee brilliantly conveys all of the pent up sorrow and anguish that his character can only express through music.  In a lesser actor’s hands, Guy’s self-pity and passiveness would result in an unappealing, unsympathetic lead character, and Once would be dead before it even begins.  But Kazee makes the quiet and reserved nature of his character utterly charming, and completely bares his soul with each of his self-accompanied solos.

In her musical debut, Cristin Milioti is a revelation.  From her first entrance, Milioti’s Girl is one of the most fully realized characters in recent musical memory.  Everything about her demeanor tells you exactly what kind of woman Girl is, and the character feels real before she utters a single syllable.  Direct and straightforward to a fault – “I’m always serious. I’m Czech,” she explains – Milioti gives us tantalizing glimpses of the emotional turmoil going on beneath the surface, making her endlessly fascinating to watch.  Between her soft-spoken nature and Czech accent, Milioti can be difficult to understand at times, but rather than becoming frustrating this only adds to her exotic allure.  Even more than costar Kazee, Milioti pours everything she has into her two big solos, and the image of her crying over the piano during the Act II ballad “The Hill” is a moment that will be permanently etched into your memory.  In a season filled with sensational female performances, Milioti ranks among the very best.

Director John Tiffany must be commended for sustaining the delicate mood that makes Once unlike any other musical currently on Broadway.  Although a couple of the supporting characters veer dangerously close to caricature, Tiffany ultimately succeeds in reigning in their broader impulses and keeps the show firmly grounded in naturalism.  Playwright Enda Walsh has crafted a stellar libretto that reads more like a play than a musical, and yet still effortlessly makes room for the show’s many musical numbers.  And the choreographed movement by Steven Hoggett, including some thrillingly theatrical transitions involving both the cast and their instruments, adds another layer of bold invention to a piece overflowing with originality.

For those with (often justified) complaints that modern day Broadway lacks innovation, Once is the answer to all of your prayers.  With its fantastic score, beautifully realized performances, and sensitive but assured direction, Once is easily the best new musical of the season, and deserves to be seen by anyone who values art in their entertainment.  Those who see the show should come prepared to fall under its utterly entrancing spell.

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 4

Steve Kazee and Cristin Milioti in Once

There are so many shows opening these days on the Great White Way, I don’t even have time to come up with a pithy opening paragraph.  Picking up right where I left out, let’s talk about the Tony nomination prospects for:

The Road to Mecca

This has not been the best season for the Roundabout Theatre Company.  The once-mighty non-profit has overindulged in its habit of producing merely adequate revivals of merely adequate plays, trapping well-respected theatrical talent in productions that are frankly beneath them.  The Road to Mecca has done nothing to change that trend, and will likely be forgotten by all of the major awards-granting bodies.

Wit

Manhattan Theatre Club, on the other hand, continues to win over both critics and audiences with highly praised revivals of acknowledged classics in addition to their adventurous new works.  The first Broadway production of the Pulitzer Prize-winning Wit will certainly be among this year’s Best Revival nominees, and MTC’s artistic director Lynne Meadow is a contender for the Best Direction award as well.  Cynthia Nixon’s universally praised star turn makes her a shoe-in for a Best Actress nomination, although winning said award will be a much trickier feat.  On both the musical and play fronts, there has been spectacular work from Broadway’s leading ladies this season, and the Best Actress races are shaping up to be two of the most exciting and unpredictable of the this year’s awards.

Shatner’s World: We Just Live In It

This one man show’s run was so brief that even if the Best Theatrical Event Tony still existed, William Shatner might not qualify for it.  Without that category to compete in, this show doesn’t stand a chance.

Death of a Salesman

Take an undisputed theatrical classic, add an unmistakably talented Oscar winner in the lead role, mix well, and you have one of the event shows of the spring.  One of several Pulitzer Prize winners to grace Broadway this season, Salesman is top tier material, and this revival has been embraced by the entire theatrical community.  Although he is about 20 years too young for the role, audiences have been entranced by Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s searing portrayal of the doomed Willy Loman, and Tony voters will surely follow suit by granting him a Best Actor nomination.

But Hoffman isn’t the only thing critics are raving about in this Salesman.  It scored high marks across the board, making it a contender in several of the big categories and an assured Best Revival nominee.  Of the actors, Linda Emond stands the best chance of being nominated alongside Hoffman for her portrayal of Willy’s wife (also named Linda), but the supporting cast can’t be counted out.  With seven Tony Awards for direction already to his name, Mike Nichols is in as good a position as anyone to snag one of the five hotly contested Best Director nominations, and if it wasn’t a reproduction of the original 1949 design and therefore ineligible, the much-ballyhooed scenic design would be a contender as well.

Once

In recent years, the Best Musical race has invariably come down to a competition between the slickly realized Commercial Success and the artistically daring Critics’ Darling.  Once will surely be this season’s representative of the latter category, putting it in the company of shows like The Scottsboro Boys, Fela!, and Next to Normal that have all attempted to take down their more mass-market competition.  The good news for Once is that the Critics’ Darling always winds up with a host of Tony nominations; the bad news is that it tends to lose out in the major categories.

Once will surely be nominated for Best Musical, Best Book, and Best Score, by virtue of its strong reviews and weak competition.  It even stands a good chance of winning the latter two awards, although a Best Musical victory is something of a long shot due to Tony politics best dealt with at a later date.  By virtue of starring in one of the season’s best reviewed musicals, lead performers Steve Kazee and Cristin Milioti cannot be counted out of the acting races, although Kazee is more likely to actually score recognition than Milioti, whose category is shaping up to be a bloodbath.

Jesus Christ Superstar

Let’s be honest: there’s really only one Best Musical Revival slot still up for grabs.  Follies, Porgy and Bess, and Evita are all but assured nominations, and I suspect Jesus Christ Superstar will end up with the fourth and final slot.  I’ve already mentioned how the critically lambasted On a Clear Day doesn’t stand a chance in this category, and Superstar is simply a better-realized production than last fall’s Godspell.  It doesn’t hurt that this Superstar arrived on Broadway due to merit and popular demand, and it earns brownie points for solving a lot of the problems inherent in mounting this notoriously hard to stage work.

Other than the revival race, its prospects for awards are pretty grim.  The acting amounts to little more than pained looks, as all of the performers are clearly more focused on getting through Webber’s beast of a score than emoting.  I wouldn’t rule out Des McAnuff’s direction from the nomination pool, as he is largely responsible for what makes this Superstar special, and has been nominated for far less impressive work (Jersey Boys remains one of the most overrated musicals of the past 10 years).  I would really like to see a choreography nomination for Lisa Shriver’s surprising work on the show, but with song and dance spectacles making a comeback and several perpetually nominated choreographers (Kathleen Marshall, Rob Ashford) eligible for this season’s Tonys, Shriver faces an uphill battle.

I’ve just over a week to speculate on the 15(!) remaining productions of this season, so look for another one of these Tony articles sooner rather than later.

Where Have All The New Musicals Gone?

Elena Roger, if you're going to kick Follies out of the Marquis, you better be spectacular!

I know, I know.  It’s been a while since my last blog entry.  In my defense, I have been busy with work and starting rehearsals for my production of Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat.  Plus, the winter is traditionally a slow time on Broadway and since the holidays wrecked my bank account, I haven’t been able to afford as many shows as I’d like.

Right now, most industry folk are busily preparing for the spring onslaught of shows, looking ahead to the ever-nearing Tony madness to come.  Unfortunately, I have also looked ahead, and I don’t like what I see.  Hence, the topic of this blog entry: the dismal slate of new musicals on tap for the spring.

I can honestly say the musical I am most excited about this spring is the revival of Evita.  Which wouldn’t be that odd if: a) I didn’t despise almost everything Andrew Lloyd Webber has ever written; and b) I wasn’t such a staunch supporter of new work.  I’m one of the ten people who actually paid to see Lysistrata Jones, for crying out loud!  And I didn’t do it because of glowing word of mouth (everyone warned me it was bad), but because I wanted to see something new.  But even my love of the new can’t override my complete lack of enthusiasm for this spring’s shows.

Part of this is a matter of timing.  Last season was a particularly strong one for new musicals; one of the best in recent memory.  Some were good, some were bad, and a couple were flat out amazing, but almost all of them were *interesting* ideas that were inherently theatrical.  The same cannot be said of these upcoming shows, which means a fourth trip to The Book of Mormon is likely in order.

Exhibit A in “Ill-Advised Ideas” is Ghost: The Musical, a show whose producers are clearly desperate to make into the big hit of the spring.  To which I saw “bleh.”  First of all, I cannot think of a single instance in which a show subtitled The Musical has turned out to be any good.  And not only is Ghost: The Musical based on a film – which like it or not has replaced the book as the go-to source material for Broadway – but it is based on a film that doesn’t lend itself particularly well to musicalization.  And thanks to the copious amount of promotional film available from the London production, it looks like Ghost: The Musical has fallen into all of the traps awaiting a film-to-stage adaptation, including generic music, pretty but bland leads, and an overreliance on high tech scenery in a desperate attempt to replicate film’s ability to quick cut from location to location.  I’m looking forward to it about as much as I’m looking forward to my next dentist visit.

The show that seems to be generating the most industry excitement, at least among the 30 and under set, is the quickie transfer of Disney’s Newsies, also based on the film of the same name.  Now maybe I’m a bad music theatre nerd, but I have never seen said film in its entirety.  I saw about 20 minutes of it in high school with a group of friends who clearly *loved* it, and couldn’t quite discern what all the fuss was about.  I suspect that if I were to watch it from beginning to end, my opinion would coincide more with the critics who panned it upon its release than with my peers who consider it a treasured part of their childhood.  Add in the fact that the show exists solely because it was the most-inquired about Disney property among amateur theatre groups (meaning Disney expects to make a mint from licensing fees), and I become even warier of the show.  The only reason I haven’t completely written it off is that Disney swears Broadway wasn’t originally in the cards, and that popular demand and the encouraging reviews prompted the transfer.

A great deal of positive word of mouth has also accompanied Once (again based on a film).  Like Newsies, it is something of a cult hit among my generation, and its earlier production was well-enough received by critics and the public to prompt the Broadway transfer.  But while the Oscar-winning song “Falling Slowly” is hauntingly beautiful, the thought of two hours of similar singer/songwriter hipster bait makes me vaguely nauseous.  I’m very afraid that outside of an intimate Off-Broadway setting, the entire endeavor will come across as pretentious and more concerned with being “art” than being “entertaining,” which despite what most critics would have you believe are not mutually exclusive pursuits.

Finally, we have three accomplished Tony-nominees returning to Broadway in two dubious sounding vehicles.  Raul Esparza, an interesting actor who has made some dubious career choices, is back in yet another film adaptation, this one based on a 1992 movie I’ve never heard of called Leap of Faith.  Oscar-winner and reliable songsmith Alan Menken is providing the music, although his recent track record (Sister Act, The Little Mermaid) leaves me skittish about the quality of Faith, especially since he will be splitting his focus between it and Newsies.  And golden-voiced Kelli O’Hara returns with Tony-winner Matthew Broderick in the new-ish Gershwin musical Nice Work If You Can Get It, which is suspect due to its pseudo-jukebox nature (it is made up of Gershwin trunk songs with a new book).  This is the one I’m stubbornly hoping will turn out amazing, if for no other reason than it will help ease the disappointment that Nice Work effectively precludes any chance of the delightful Crazy for You getting revived in the near future.

Making matters even worse for me personally is the fact that two musicals originally scheduled for the spring that actually looked promising have been postponed until a later date.  The Susan Stroman-helmed adaptation of Big Fish may be based on a movie, but it is a movie with a particularly theatrical premise that would benefit strongly from Stroman’s imaginative staging and inventive choreography.  It was also supposed to star my TV boyfriend Michael C. Hall taking a needed break from slaying serial killers over on Showtime, which made it all the more appealing.  And while I was suspicious of its Germanic origins (Germany, let’s not forget, loves David Hasselhoff as a *singer* and has an inexplicable fascination with Starlight freakin’ Express), I thought Rebecca sounded intriguing.  The gothic-tinged novel(!) it’s based on easily lends itself to musicalization, and as an entirely character-driven piece I think it would adapt to the stage quite well.  Plus, announced star Sierra Borgess has a ridiculously pure soprano that deserves to sing something other than sappy Lloyd Webber ballads.

So while I will likely end up seeing most of these new musicals, I am most looking forward to hearing Elena Roger recklessly belt her way through “Buenos Aries” and “A New Argentina.”  And if I don’t understand a damn word she says, at least I can blame it on the fact that English is not her first language, an excuse unfortunately not applicable to the otherwise divine Patti LuPone J

Will It Recoup? Winter 2012 Edition

The past couple of months have brought with them a flurry of new shows hoping to take advantage of the influx of tourists clogging the streets of Times Square during the holidays.  And while some of these shows may do quite well for themselves, the sad fact is that most shows, even if they are brilliant, will never recoup their initial investment.  Here’s a look at the next 5 musicals opening this season, and my personal analysis of their money-making potential.

An Evening with Patti LuPone and Mandy Patinkin

The former Evita costars finally return to the Great White Way in this combination concert/vanity project.  The pair (expectedly) leans heavily on the work of Stephen Sondheim, and offers up a couple of dynamite renditions of songs from the show that made them famous.  They also perform abridged versions of Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Carousel and South Pacific, despite both actors being far too old for the romantic leads  (LuPone in particular strains credibility as Nellie Forbrush and Julie Jordan).

Will It Recoup?  Hard to say, although my gut tells me “no.”  Working in the show’s favor is its small size, with only two performers and two musicians on the payroll.  Given their genuine love of the theatre and one another, I wouldn’t even be surprised to learn LuPone and Patinkin had agreed to relatively modest salaries for this endeavor.  But the unfortunate box office reality is that theatre stars – and make no mistake, these are two legitimate Broadway stars who make the newer generation look woefully untalented by comparison – rarely draw the same size audiences that Hollywood celebrities do.  LuPone and Patinkin’s fans definitely skew older, which will limit their box office appeal, but there is an upside to that:  older audiences tend to pay full price.

On a Clear Day, You Can See Forever

I’m just going to say it: I have no idea why this show is being revived, let alone on Broadway.  For the past decade, most musical revivals have employed some combination of a well-respected property, one or more big name stars, and a well-regarded “tryout” production, be it in the West End or at a regional theatre.  Clear Day has such a notoriously problematic book that the show is rarely performed, and its big name star (Harry Connick, Jr.) is playing way outside his comfort zone.  Director Michael Mayer has completely reconceived the show, rewriting so much of the show’s book he considers it more of a new musical than a revival.

Will It Recoup?  I’m going out on a limb and saying that not only will this musical not recoup, it will be one of the biggest flops of the season.  Star Harry Connick, Jr. won’t be able to rely on his innate charm like he did in The Pajama Game, and those who do show up specifically to see the crooner may be thrown for a loop by the show’s downbeat tone.  And the last time director Michael Mayer was this heavily involved in a show’s actual script, we got American Idiot, a misguided musical that failed to ignite the box office despite having massively popular Green Day songs for its score.  Mayer’s retooling of the show’s already bizarre plot now centers on the love triangle between a therapist (Connick, Jr.), his gay male patient, and that gay patient’s past self as a female longue singer.  It's as if Mayer was actively trying to alienate both the show’s existing fans and the matinee ladies who typically drive the success of these types of shows!  This has disaster written all over it.

Lysistrata Jones
After a successful Off-Broadway run earlier this year, Lysistrata Jones (loosely based on the Greek comedy Lysistrata) arrives on Broadway as one of the more interesting new musicals of the season.  The titular heroine, a transfer student to fictional Athens University, convinces the school’s cheerleaders to withhold sex from their basketball-playing boyfriends until the team breaks its long running losing streak.  It all sounds like an entertaining if lightweight evening of theatre, but I worry if the small scale show might be better suited to smaller scale Off-Broadway venues like the one that birthed it (the previous New York production took place in an actual gymnasium).

Will It Recoup?  I would like to say yes, because it would be nice to see new musicals continue to flourish, but my heart tells me no.  I’m just not convinced the show is strong enough to endure all the pressure that comes with being a Broadway musical.  And book writer Douglas Carter Beane remains on my shitlist after the atrocity that was the book to last season’s Sister Act.  But from a financial standpoint, the greatest problem with this show is its absolutely abysmal grosses during previews.  The show has yet to break $200,000 a week, and while preview grosses are always lower due to discounted or comped tickets intended to fill seats and spread word of mouth, I doubt the producers can even pay their bills on that amount.  The show needs some kind of turnaround, and I’m not sure the mixed to positive reviews it received will be enough to cause one.

The Gershwin’s Porgy and Bess

She’s back.  After four long years in Hollywood, Audra McDonald is back on Broadway in a true American classic – assuming Diane Paulus’ production hasn’t strayed so far from the famed opera by the brothers Gershwin that it’s unrecognizable.  Paulus and her new book writer Suzan-Lori Parks incurred the wrath of God (well, Stephen Sondheim, but in musical theatre they’re practically the same thing) when word got out they were toying with new scenes and a new ending during the show’s out of town tryout.  But the latest info says these changes were nixed in favor of a less radical reinterpretation of the piece, and no matter what, you can bet that McDonald will be sensational as Bess.

Will It Recoup?  This show is well poised for financial success.  Audra McDonald is Broadway royalty, and may well have picked up even more fans after four years on a hit TV show.  Theatre folk will turn out in droves to see McDonald play this role, and Sondheim’s nasty editorial in the Times probably garnered a huge amount of free publicity.  Ben Brantley raved about McDonald out of town, and I have a feeling Paulus and her team are smart enough to have actually used the time since then to bring the rest of the show up to that level.  And by setting the show up as a limited run, the producers have shifted to a business model that by necessity will make the show more cost effective, as they now have less time to actually make back their money.

Once

Well, you certainly can’t accuse the producers of Once of lacking faith in their show.  Before it even opened Off-Broadway, they announced a transfer for this stage adaptation of the Oscar-winning indie film.  And why not?  The show had already garnered strong buzz during previews, including lots of positive word of mouth.  While the reviews that greeted the show could have been stronger, they were certainly encouraging, and Once could end up as one of the season’s sleeper hits.

Will It Recoup?  Although I wouldn’t call Once a sure thing, it is certainly well positioned to make back its investment costs.  Strong ticket sales helped prompt the Broadway transfer in the first place, so the show definitely has an audience.  Although there won’t be much time for rewrites between its Off-Broadway closing and Broadway opening, there will be plenty of time for the performers to become more comfortable in their roles and find the nuances that could propel the show into greatness.  With the lack of strong competition among this season’s new musicals, the show may end up being the best option for a lot of theatre goers, and could prove a strong contender for Tony Awards in the spring.  And if the small cast show receives the box office bump that comes with a Best Musical win, I’m almost certain it will make back its money by the end of next year.