2012 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Before I continue my 2012 Tony Award predictions, here’s a quick recap of the two caveats I elaborated on in my first article:  1) I have not seen all of the nominated shows; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which may be different from who should win (reasons for any variance in the two will be elaborated in the article).

Since Tony night is fast approaching, let’s not waste any more time!

Best Book of a Musical

Nominees:  Douglas Carter Beane, Lysistrata Jones; Harvey Fierstein, Newsies; Joe DiPietro, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Enda Walsh, Once

I died a little inside when I read that Douglas Carter Beane was nominated for his atrocious book to Lysistrata Jones.  Beane managed to completely remove the anti-war allegory that’s allowed the Greek Lysistrata to withstand the test of time, and replaced it with poorly developed characters and painfully unfunny one-liners.  He doesn’t deserve to be nominated, and rest assured there is no way he can possibly win (the fact that Lysistrata closed months ago is the final nail in Beane’s coffin).

I would put Harvey Fierstein’s libretto for Newsies and Joe DiPietro’s book for Nice Work on the same level artistically.  Both are perfectly serviceable scripts, free of any glaring plot holes or structural weaknesses.  Both segue nicely into their respective musical numbers while simultaneously crafting characters with the illusion of depth, even if many of them lack actual substance.  Unfortunately, neither libretto takes the extra steps necessary to qualify as Tony-worthy.  The book scenes in both shows primarily serve as filler in between the musical numbers, rather than adding much of substance to their respective shows.

By contrast, Enda Walsh’s book for Once approaches the depth and quality of a play script.  Despite some very long scenes (at least by musical theatre standards), the Once libretto remains engrossing and provides information that greatly enhances the already strong emotional impact of the show’s songs.  Once relies on such a delicately established mood that it would not work without the Walsh’s first rate contributions, and he will deservedly take home the Tony for his efforts on June 10^th.

Will & Should Win:  Enda Walsh, Once

Best Original Score

Nominees:  Frank Wildhorn & Don Black, Bonnie and Clyde; Alan Menken & Jack Feldman, Newsies; Grant Olding, One Man, Two Guvnors; Wayne Barker & Rick Elice, Peter and the Starcatcher

I could (and probably should) write an entire blog entry about the sorry state of musical theatre composition.  The fact that two of the four Best Original Score nominations went to plays instead of musicals proves how little good work is being done in this area.  Unfortunately, the year’s strongest score – the haunting and beautiful Once – was written for another medium and is therefore ineligible.  But while the Tony committee has shown a willingness to nominate play scores in the past few years, I don’t think they are prepared to actually give the prize to a non-musical, which rules out both One Man, Two Guvnors and Peter and the Starcatcher. 

Which leaves Bonnie & Clyde and Newsies, with their oft-nominated but so far unrewarded composers.  Now, if you had told me a year ago that Frank “Modulation” Wildhorn would be the most deserving of a Best Score Tony, I would have laughed in your face.  But this time round Wildhorn wrote a genuinely theatrical score, with many of the songs containing actual narrative action rather than an endless series of ever-higher money notes.  He has successfully fused the bluegrass and folk idioms with show music, and many of the show’s ballads are genuinely beautiful as opposed to his usual manufactured bombast.  All of this, combined with weak competition, makes Bonnie & Clyde legitimately the strongest work nominated this year.

Unfortunately for Wildhorn, there’s clearly no overcoming the tarnished reputation his past work has earned him.  Having his name on the marquee caused Bonnie & Clyde to be unfairly trashed by critics, and the show closed within a month of opening.  Meanwhile Newsies was embraced by critics and has been playing to near sell-out business, and its composer Alan Menken has managed to maintain a high reputation among the theatre elite despite some questionable shows of his own.  For all of its repetitiveness and overly-earnest emotion, Newsies does feature several catchy numbers and one genuinely inventive solo for its leading lady.  And since Menken has never won the big award, the committee will likely give him a Tony statuette that will in name be for this show, but will really be for his body of work.

Will Win:  Alan Menken, Newsies

Should Win:  Frank Wildhorn, Bonnie & Clyde (yes, I really just typed that)

That’s it for now.  Join me next time as I begin dissecting which performers have done award-worthy work this past season.

2012 Tony Predictions: Choreography and Direction

The time has come.  With a little over two weeks left until the Tony Awards ceremony on June 10^th, it’s time for me to get out my crystal ball and predict who will be the winners and losers on Broadway’s big night. But before I start prognosticating, let me mention a couple of caveats: 

1) I haven’t actually seen all of the nominated productions, as I ran out of time and money long before I ran out of shows to see.  But given my 82% success rate in predicting the nominees, I think it’s safe to say I have some idea what I’m talking about. 

2) These are my predictions of who will win, not who should win, which is an important distinction to make.  Like any entertainment award, a fair amount of politics comes into play when determining the winners, especially when a large number of Tony voters are producers themselves and therefore biased.  Which is why in every category, I will pick the nominee who will win and also point out the person I think should win, which is not necessarily the same individual.  Any discrepancies will be addressed in the body of the article.

Now that we’ve laid out the ground rules, let’s get started!

Best Choreography

Nominees:  Rob Ashford, Evita; Christopher Gattelli, Newsies; Steven Hoggett, Once; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It

The chances of Evita winning a Best Choreography Tony are almost zero, despite some stunning dance sequences that managed to convert this Rob Ashford naysayer into a fan.  The overall production and especially its star were simply too disappointing to too many people.  And while certainly innovative and theatrical, I don’t see Steven Hoggett’s work on Once triumphing over the “real” dancing in the other nominated shows (that show’s playbill credits him with “movement” rather than full-fledged “choreography).

Kathleen Marshall has won this award three times before, most recently for the still running Anything Goes, which automatically makes her a major contender.  In my opinion, she is one of the most consistent and creative choreographers working today, and her musical staging for Nice Work is the only thing about that particular show which isn’t imminently predictable.  But her recent win combined with the lack of a true showstopper in Nice Work’s – nothing in it comes close to the heights achieved by her “Anything Goes” or “Blow, Gabriel, Blow” – could lead voters to give someone else a moment in the limelight.

That someone would be Christopher Gattelli and his work on Newsies.  The one thing against him is the fact that while superbly executed, a lot of the choreography lacks innovation.  Most of the routines look like combinations you would find in an admittedly advanced jazz class, a problem which kept Memphis from even being nominated two years ago.  But the Tony committee will surely want to give Newsies some recognition for becoming one of the spring’s biggest success stories, and I predict two-time Tony nominee Christopher Gattelli will become Tony-winner Christopher Gattelli on June 10^th.

Will Win: Christopher Gattelli

Should Win:  Kathleen Marshall

Best Direction of a Play

Nominees:  Nicholas Hytner (One Man, Two Guvnors); Pam MacKinnon (ClybournePark); Mike Nichols (Death of a Salesman); Roger Rees and Alex Timbers (Peter and the Starcatcher)

After years of Broadway being dominated by British imports, I think the Tony voters are going to finally start rewarding Americans for their contributions to the legitimate theatre.  Which means Nicholas Hytner and his work on One Man, Two Guvnors is out.  I must also disqualify Pam MacKinnon, as I think most of the credit for that show’s success is being given to Bruce Norris’ script and its stellar acting ensemble.

Which leaves Mike Nichols and the combined talents of Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, all of whom were integral to the success of their respective shows.  Death of a Salesman is an acknowledged classic, but Nichols’ direction makes the entire production gel in a way that justifies the existence of this latest revival.  While everyone recognizes that the inventive staging has been the key to Peter and the Starcatcher’s success, I have to give the edge to Nichols.  He is an industry giant who commands an enormous amount of respect (see his seven previous Best Direction Tonys as proof), Salesman has become one of the theatrical events of the spring.  Rees and Timbers could score an upset, but I find it highly unlikely.

Will & Should Win:  Mike Nichols

Best Direction of a Musical

Nominees:  Jeff Calhoun, Newsies; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Diane Paulus, Porgy and Bess; John Tiffany, Once

If Newsies had opened in April instead of March, I would be predicting a virtual sweep for Disney’s tale of dancing newsboys, but just enough time has passed for the theatrical community to realize that for all of its merits, there is simply better work being done this year.  Direction awards tend to be higher-minded than some of the other categories, and Newsies simply isn’t up to that standard.  Similarly, Marshall’s serviceable job on Nice Work is by no means her best, and for a woman more respected as a choreographer than a director it simply isn’t enough to net her a Best Director trophy.

John Tiffany is the clear front runner here.  Once is the most nominated production of the season, and also the most artistically daring.  Without the delicately realized mood and pacing provided by Tiffany’s direction, Once would collapse under the weight of its own ambitions, instead of emerging as arguably the best new musical of the season. 

I think Diane Paulus has done sensational work on Porgy, and few directors have her gift of making the stagecraft behind the blocking seem so completely organic.  She has successfully brought the show into the 21^st century, and made a classic opera seem real and immediate in a way I would not have thought possible.  Unfortunately for Paulus, there are enough purists who cannot accept Porgy as anything other than a 4-hour opera, and while I loved her interpretation I can understand why some people would feel that way.  For a production whose Broadway prospects were once in question – thanks to that infamous letter from Mr. Sondheim – Paulus should consider her inclusion among this year’s nominees a victory in itself.  Without the burden of preconceived notions, Tiffany was free to do whatever he wished with Once, and the results are totally transfixing and definitely Tony worthy.

Will & Should Win:  John Tiffany (although Paulus is a very close second)

That’s it for now, but check back throughout the next two weeks for more of my 2012 Tony predictions!

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 6

I'm sure the play is very good, but if that's what the house in Clybourne Park looks like, I'm not sure why anyone would want to move into it.

Magic/Bird

From the same team behind last year’s Lombardi, this play about the rivalry between NBA stars Magic Johnson and Larry Bird seems destined to be an also-ran in a season so packed with new works.  With less enthusiastic reviews than Lombardi (which wasn’t exactly embraced by critics to begin with) and lacking a critical darling like Judith Light to raise its profile, Magic/Bird simply won’t be among this year’s Tony nominees.

Peter and the Starcatcher

Peter and the Starcatcher, a prequel to Peter Pan, is the essence of an Off-Broadway show.  Relying more on a gifted ensemble and strong script than grand spectacle, this play is by all accounts quirky, inventive, and creatively staged in a way that emphasizes old-fashioned stagecraft over flashy technology.  Like last season’s Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson, Starcatcher was well reviewed Off-Broadway and similarly praised after its move uptown.  I also predict that it will be similarly ignored by the Tony voters, with the exception of one or two acting nominations.

This has less to do with quality and is more a reflection of Tony politics and preferences.  The voters tend to prefer their plays be high-minded adult dramas rather than family shows, and with so many of the former on the boards this season I don’t see Starcatcher cracking the more competitive categories like Best Play or Best Direction.  I do think Christian Borle’s scene-stealing turn as Black Stache makes him a definite contender for some Best Supporting Actor love, and in such a crowded season for new plays even one Tony nomination is a definite accomplishment.

One Man, Two Guvnors

Quite honestly, I am over the recent trend of West End transfers coming to Broadway and sweeping the Tony Awards.  While there is definitely quality in the execution of these productions, I have found many of them to be overrated, as if the New York theatrical community has so deeply absorbed the idea that the English are better actors than we are that they blindly endorse anything with a British pedigree.

But with so many strong American productions on Broadway this year, I think that trend will finally be broken.  While this farce it could find itself the token British Best Play nominee (there’s always at least one), it is by no means assured a place at the table, given the already mentioned Tony preference for drama over farce.  All that said, even the most jaded theatregoer would have trouble justifying the exclusion of leading man James Corden from the Best Actor category, thanks to his virtuosic performance in such a physically demanding role.

Clybourne Park

This play has Tony bait written all over it.  It is a contemporary drama (or dark comedy, depending on who you ask) that tackles a serious issue (race) with intelligence and a roundly praised acting ensemble, Clybourne Park also has the distinction of being last year’s winner of the Pulitzer Prize for Drama.  In a tough category, that makes the show as close to a guaranteed Best Play nominee as there is this year.

The quality of the acting ensemble will either net the show a boatload of nominations or cancel one another out.  Of all the Tony categories, the acting nominations tend to be the most merit based, but it still helps if a performer is one of the best parts of their respected show.  When everyone is amazing, it sometimes results in no one getting nominated due to vote splitting.  The Best Direction of a Play category is so ridiculously competitive that I’ve given up trying to predict it, although anyone who can coax this many stellar performances out of a group of actors is certainly in the running.

A Streetcar Named Desire

Working on this iconic Tennessee Williams play is both a blessing and a curse.  On the one hand, the script is widely recognized as one of the greatest American plays ever written, with such layered characterizations and universal themes that it’s a veritable gold mine for serious dramatic actors.  However, the play is so well known that most critics have very specific ideas on how it should be handled, and the iconic characters have been played by some of the greatest actors who have ever lived, which makes living up to audience expectations for the work almost impossible.

It seems that this production, like most Streetcar revivals, didn’t fully satisfy critics.  Its inclusion among any of the Tony categories is a complete toss-up.  The strength of the material may get it included among the Best Revival nominees, but the apparent mishandling of that material could also keep it out of contention.  The lead actors all have roles that Tony voters gravitate toward, but it doesn’t sound like any of them have earned the right to join the prestigious company of confirmed greats like Jessica Tandy or Marlon Brando.  And who knows how Tony voters will react to director Emily Mann’s vision of an ethnically diverse production, given how much Williams’ plays rely on their Old South milieu for their themes and characterizations.  Some may feel casting black actors revealed new shades of meaning in this oft-studied work, but others may decide that race has little bearing on the material and is in essence stunt casting (this latter sentiment kept the recent all-black Cat on a Hot Tin Roof from being more of an awards contender).

Ghost the Musical

In a normal season, the critically lambasted Ghost would be such a long shot at any kind of award nominations that discussing it would be a waste of time.  But this is not a normal season, and given the lack of a Book of Mormon-esque critical and commercial success, anything could happen.  I personally don’t think Ghost can secure a Best Musical slot, but then again, I am predicting the absolutely atrocious Spider-Man (which I named the Worst Show of 2011) will be nominated in that very category due to weak competition and Tony politics.  Since the chances of Ghost actually being worse than that train wreck are infinitesimally small, perhaps Ghost stands a chance.

Which also means it could wind up among the Best Book and Score nominees, although I again doubt this will actually happen.  Ghost has not accumulated the industry clout that Spider-Man somehow has, and seemingly lacks the latter show’s mass commercial appeal.  The bland lead actors are also out of luck, as looking pretty and singing well thankfully isn’t quite enough to earn someone a Tony nomination.  Depending on how well Da’Vine Joy Randolph plays up the Sassy Black Woman archetype, she may find herself among the Best Supporting Actress nominees, although her chances of winning are currently next to nothing.  And even though it broke down on the night most critics reviewed the show, Ghost’s set could prove dazzling enough from a technical standpoint to get nominated.

Just one more article to go and we’ll have officially touched on every Broadway production that has opened during this busy season.  Look for it to go live soon!

To read my previous Tony Watch articles, look here:

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5