2012 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

Now we arrive at the two most competitive categories of the year:  Best Actress in a Play and Best Actress in a Musical.  With so many sterling performances by Broadway’s leading ladies this year, choosing just one seems criminal, but I will do my best.  Please keep in mind my two caveats:  1) I have not seen all of the nominees (at least in the play categories); and 2) Who will win is not necessarily the same as who should win, a difference I will explain in more detail throughout the body of the article.

Best Actress in a Play

Nominees:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur; Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow; Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities; Linda Lavin, The Lyons; Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Where do I even begin?  All five of these women gave critically lauded performances in well-reviewed productions, meaning the eventual winner will be determined as much by buzz as actual merit.  While all of the nominees are Tony-worthy, I think Cynthia Nixon has the least chance of winning.  Yes, critics adored Nixon’s turn as a college professor with terminal cancer, and the same role won actress Kathleen Chalfant every acting prize she was eligible for when Wit premiered Off-Broadway 14 years ago.  But with her show now closed, Nixon doesn’t have the chance to remind Tony voters how well she stacks up against the competition.

Linda Lavin and Nina Arianda have the advantage of being in currently running plays, but they somehow haven’t amassed the same level of buzz as their competition.  Lavin famously passed on the Broadway transfers of both Follies and Other Desert Cities in order to do The Lyons, and despite her tour de force performance the show hasn’t really caught on with critics or audiences.  Nina Arianda is two for two when it comes to Tony nods (she was also nominated for her Broadway debut last year), but Venus in Fur opened so long ago that I fear she’ll be forgotten despite Venus being in the running for Best Play.  She could be a dark horse candidate, but by definition dark horses are not the most likely winners.

The real contenders are Tracie Bennett and Stockard Channing, who are both giving the type of over the top diva performances Tony voters love.  Channing finds every shade imaginable in her domineering mother character from Other Desert Cities, and for much of the season was considered the front runner for this award.  But then Tracie Bennett arrived and became the talk of the town for her performance as a drug-addled, aging Judy Garland in End of the Rainbow.  Convincingly portraying a beloved icon with such ardent fans is no small feat, and since she utterly dominates Rainbow (as opposed to the more ensemble-oriented Other Desert Cities), I think the Best Actress trophy is Bennett’s to lose.  I’ll be rooting for Arianda, who has twice proven she is an extraordinary talent and a superstar in the making, but the smart money is on Bennett.

Will Win:  Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

Should Win:  Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Best Actress in a Musical

Nominees:  Jan Maxwell, Follies; Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess; Cristin Milioti, Once; Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde

There is no doubt in my mind Kelli O’Hara, with her versatility and crystal-clear singing voice, will eventually win herself a Tony.  But it won’t be for Nice Work If You Can Get It, an underwhelming musical that is by no means her best work.  Similarly, if Laura Osnes continues to improve the way she has since getting her big break in the last Grease revival, she will someday find herself in possession of the coveted statuette.  But with Bonnie & Clyde unfairly trounced by critics and having shuttered ages ago, Osnes is also effectively out of the running.

The remaining three contenders have each done fantastic work this season, and a convincing argument could be made for any one of them to win Best Actress.  Ultimately, I think being a first-time nominee will keep the sensational Cristin Milioti from winning, with the Tony voters reasoning that she has plenty of time left to win the award.  That is not a knock against her amazing performance in Once; I would argue she is the best thing about that incredibly strong show.

But perennial Tony favorites Audra McDonald and Jan Maxwell have both exceeded all possible expectations this year.  Jan Maxwell was a revelation in Follies, stopping the show twice with her two big numbers.  She made the acerbic Phyllis endlessly compelling, slowly stripping away character’s icy veneer to reveal the damaged soul underneath.  It was a master class in musical theatre acting, and combined with the fact that this four-time nominee has never won, that makes her the one the beat in many people’s eyes.

Meanwhile Audra McDonald, the universally beloved singing actress, has one Tony for each of Maxwell’s nominations.  It would be perfectly logically for the Tony voters to spread the wealth, especially since we all knew McDonald would be excellent in Porgy and Bess, a role she was born to play.  But it is impossible to comprehend just how amazing her Bess is without seeing it, and I suspect even her biggest fans would find themselves surprised by what a masterful portrayal it is.  McDonald conveys more with her posture and body language than most actresses can in an entire song, and some of the most riveting moments in Porgy are the dialogue-free scenes where you watch Bess’ inner struggle to overcome her self-destructive tendencies.  And when McDonald does sing, she achieves such operatic heights of vocal technique and emotion that it is truly transcendent.

I’ve been agonizing over which actress is more deserving for months, and in many ways the race is still too close to call.  But call it I must, and my gut is favoring McDonald, despite her almost unprecedented four previous wins.  Unlike Maxwell, whose show closed in January, McDonald is still performing nightly and therefore reminding the Tony voters of her nearly unmatched talent.  Her Bess is one for the ages, and probably her best work to date, an especially high compliment when those four other Tony Awards are taken into consideration.  But if ever there was a tie for Best Actress, this would be the year.

Will Win:  Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess

Should Win:  Audra McDonald AND Jan Maxwell (they are both perfection)

Check back soon for my Best Actor predictions.  Until then, catch up on my previous Tony articles:

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress
Best Score and Book
Best Direction and Choreography

2012 Tony Predictions: Choreography and Direction

The time has come.  With a little over two weeks left until the Tony Awards ceremony on June 10^th, it’s time for me to get out my crystal ball and predict who will be the winners and losers on Broadway’s big night. But before I start prognosticating, let me mention a couple of caveats: 

1) I haven’t actually seen all of the nominated productions, as I ran out of time and money long before I ran out of shows to see.  But given my 82% success rate in predicting the nominees, I think it’s safe to say I have some idea what I’m talking about. 

2) These are my predictions of who will win, not who should win, which is an important distinction to make.  Like any entertainment award, a fair amount of politics comes into play when determining the winners, especially when a large number of Tony voters are producers themselves and therefore biased.  Which is why in every category, I will pick the nominee who will win and also point out the person I think should win, which is not necessarily the same individual.  Any discrepancies will be addressed in the body of the article.

Now that we’ve laid out the ground rules, let’s get started!

Best Choreography

Nominees:  Rob Ashford, Evita; Christopher Gattelli, Newsies; Steven Hoggett, Once; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It

The chances of Evita winning a Best Choreography Tony are almost zero, despite some stunning dance sequences that managed to convert this Rob Ashford naysayer into a fan.  The overall production and especially its star were simply too disappointing to too many people.  And while certainly innovative and theatrical, I don’t see Steven Hoggett’s work on Once triumphing over the “real” dancing in the other nominated shows (that show’s playbill credits him with “movement” rather than full-fledged “choreography).

Kathleen Marshall has won this award three times before, most recently for the still running Anything Goes, which automatically makes her a major contender.  In my opinion, she is one of the most consistent and creative choreographers working today, and her musical staging for Nice Work is the only thing about that particular show which isn’t imminently predictable.  But her recent win combined with the lack of a true showstopper in Nice Work’s – nothing in it comes close to the heights achieved by her “Anything Goes” or “Blow, Gabriel, Blow” – could lead voters to give someone else a moment in the limelight.

That someone would be Christopher Gattelli and his work on Newsies.  The one thing against him is the fact that while superbly executed, a lot of the choreography lacks innovation.  Most of the routines look like combinations you would find in an admittedly advanced jazz class, a problem which kept Memphis from even being nominated two years ago.  But the Tony committee will surely want to give Newsies some recognition for becoming one of the spring’s biggest success stories, and I predict two-time Tony nominee Christopher Gattelli will become Tony-winner Christopher Gattelli on June 10^th.

Will Win: Christopher Gattelli

Should Win:  Kathleen Marshall

Best Direction of a Play

Nominees:  Nicholas Hytner (One Man, Two Guvnors); Pam MacKinnon (ClybournePark); Mike Nichols (Death of a Salesman); Roger Rees and Alex Timbers (Peter and the Starcatcher)

After years of Broadway being dominated by British imports, I think the Tony voters are going to finally start rewarding Americans for their contributions to the legitimate theatre.  Which means Nicholas Hytner and his work on One Man, Two Guvnors is out.  I must also disqualify Pam MacKinnon, as I think most of the credit for that show’s success is being given to Bruce Norris’ script and its stellar acting ensemble.

Which leaves Mike Nichols and the combined talents of Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, all of whom were integral to the success of their respective shows.  Death of a Salesman is an acknowledged classic, but Nichols’ direction makes the entire production gel in a way that justifies the existence of this latest revival.  While everyone recognizes that the inventive staging has been the key to Peter and the Starcatcher’s success, I have to give the edge to Nichols.  He is an industry giant who commands an enormous amount of respect (see his seven previous Best Direction Tonys as proof), Salesman has become one of the theatrical events of the spring.  Rees and Timbers could score an upset, but I find it highly unlikely.

Will & Should Win:  Mike Nichols

Best Direction of a Musical

Nominees:  Jeff Calhoun, Newsies; Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It; Diane Paulus, Porgy and Bess; John Tiffany, Once

If Newsies had opened in April instead of March, I would be predicting a virtual sweep for Disney’s tale of dancing newsboys, but just enough time has passed for the theatrical community to realize that for all of its merits, there is simply better work being done this year.  Direction awards tend to be higher-minded than some of the other categories, and Newsies simply isn’t up to that standard.  Similarly, Marshall’s serviceable job on Nice Work is by no means her best, and for a woman more respected as a choreographer than a director it simply isn’t enough to net her a Best Director trophy.

John Tiffany is the clear front runner here.  Once is the most nominated production of the season, and also the most artistically daring.  Without the delicately realized mood and pacing provided by Tiffany’s direction, Once would collapse under the weight of its own ambitions, instead of emerging as arguably the best new musical of the season. 

I think Diane Paulus has done sensational work on Porgy, and few directors have her gift of making the stagecraft behind the blocking seem so completely organic.  She has successfully brought the show into the 21^st century, and made a classic opera seem real and immediate in a way I would not have thought possible.  Unfortunately for Paulus, there are enough purists who cannot accept Porgy as anything other than a 4-hour opera, and while I loved her interpretation I can understand why some people would feel that way.  For a production whose Broadway prospects were once in question – thanks to that infamous letter from Mr. Sondheim – Paulus should consider her inclusion among this year’s nominees a victory in itself.  Without the burden of preconceived notions, Tiffany was free to do whatever he wished with Once, and the results are totally transfixing and definitely Tony worthy.

Will & Should Win:  John Tiffany (although Paulus is a very close second)

That’s it for now, but check back throughout the next two weeks for more of my 2012 Tony predictions!