2015 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

It all comes down to this. On Sunday, the American Theatre Wing will crown the latest crop of Tony Award winners, representing the best and brightest of the Broadway theatre season. As the industry's highest honor, the Tonys prompt huge amounts of speculation every season, as winning can provide the boost needed to send an actor's career to the next level or ensure a struggling production runs long enough to turn a profit. 

There are only two categories remaining in my annual Tony predictions, and they are the two biggest: Best Play and Best Musical. More than any other award, a win in one of these categories can mark the turning point where an obscure property becomes a long-running, oft produced hit. It automatically generates more interest in the ticket buying public, and specifically for musicals can be the different between turning a profit and closing at a loss. (For a case in point, last year's well reviewed A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder struggled at the box office until winning the Best Musical prize, and has since recouped its investment.) So which new play and musical will have the honor of being selected as Broadway's best? Find out below.

Warning: Occasional snark and major speculation to follow.

Best Play

Alex Sharp in one of the many visually stunning scenes from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

Nominees: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Disgraced; Hand to God; Wolf Hall Parts I & II

What does it say about the Tony Awards when Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced is the least competitive Best Play nominee? The implications of that could fill an entire blog post on their own, but what it primarily says is that having your show running during voting season is almost essential to winning. Tony voters don't have the longest memories, and in a competitive season such as this the probing Muslim-American drama just couldn't find the traction to stick with voters past its March 1st closing date.

The other three contenders are all currently running and each has its champions, although there seems to be less fervor surrounding the Royal Shakespeare Company's Wolf Hall double bill. Which leaves London import The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time and scrappy underdog Hand to God to battle it out for the big prize, with the former the clear favorite. Curious Incident, in addition to being the most visually stunning play of the season, is a well written and cleverly nuanced coming of age story about an autistic youth, wonderfully embodied by likely Best Actor winner Alex Sharp. It has also won every Best Play award of the season, an uninterrupted winning streak that is hard to ignore.

Yet you can't completely dismiss Hand to God and its passionate supporters, who would love to see a wholly American play take this award (although given the last 3 Best Play winners were all home grown successes, it's getting harder to argue the Tonys are biased towards British imports). An edgy, unpredictable work, Hand to God ultimately becomes so focused on shocking the audience it loses sight of its thematic core. Playwright Robert Askins clearly has something to say, but you get the impression he hasn't quite figured out how to say it, whereas Curious Incident knows exactly what it wants to communicate and does so beautifully. While I won't entirely rule out a Hand to God upset, I think Curious Incident both deserves and will win this award for combining a beautiful script about an important subject with a highly inventive, top tier production.

Will & Should Win: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Musical

The three different incarnations of Alison Bechdel, the lesbian cartoonist whose graphic memoir inspired the boundary pushing chamber musical Fun Home.

Nominees: An American in Paris; Fun Home; Something Rotten!; The Visit

Of the four Best Musical nominees, I probably got the most enjoyment out of watching the frankly insane The Visit unapologetically tell its story of love, greed and revenge. But as fascinating as Kander and Ebb's final show is, it definitely has the smallest chance of winning here, scoring only half as many nominations as any of its competitors. A couple months ago, word on the street was that Something Rotten! would be the musical to beat this season, but its disappointing showing at the other industry awards makes it look less competitive than it once did. I suspect the show is a little too derivative of past Tony winners Spamalot and The Producers to really impress the voters, but given its recent million dollar weeks I think the show will run regardless of what happens Sunday night.

This race will ultimately come down to An American in Paris versus Fun Home, and it remains almost too close to call. Fun Home is the more prestigious of the two shows, both better constructed and better realized. Yet something about the show left me cold, and even though I appreciated the piece's ambition and the skill of all involved, I wasn't moved by it the way I expected to be. There is also the question of whether the road producers are willing to vote for a dark, challenging musical about a lesbian cartoonist and her closeted father when they could vote for a crowd pleasing dance show packed with familiar Gershwin tunes that will surely pack their regional houses. The other industry awards don't provide much indication as to which way voters are leaning, as Fun Home's Off-Broadway run occurred last season and therefore the two shows have not been in direct competition (Fun Home dominated last year, while American in Paris has been riding high this year).

Until a couple of days ago, I would have predicted a victory for An American in Paris. But as I write this, I really think the voters will do the right thing and vote Fun Home the Best Musical of 2015. It is certainly better written, and arguably better performed (although the American in Paris cast is quite talented). And recent Tony voting patterns show that many of the supposed obstacles to a Fun Home victory aren't really issues at all. Kinky Boots' win and subsequent success across the country proves that road voters and audiences aren't inherently terrified of "gay" shows, although the glitzy drag musical is a much more sanitized and widely appealing production. And if the road producers vote strictly for the most commercial production, last year would have seen Beautiful or Aladdin triumph over Gentleman's Guide. So at the last minute, I am changing my official prediction from American in Paris to Fun Home, and hoping that the Tony voters don't disappoint me.

Will & Should Win: Fun Home
Incredibly Close Second Where Winning Odds Are Concerned: An American in Paris


And there you have it. Those are my official predictions for the 2014-2015 Tony season. Check back on Monday to see my thoughts on this year's winners and the Tony telecast itself, and be sure to check out any of the coverage you may have missed below.

Nominations React
Best Book & Score
Best Direction & Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Revival

'S Almost Wonderful

Review: An American in Paris

The cast of An American in Paris.

Adapted from the Oscar-winning film of the same name, the "new" Gershwin musical An American in Paris is perhaps the most dance heavy production to arrive on Broadway in years. Director/choreographer Christopher Wheeldon's gorgeous routines are executed to perfection by some of the finest dancers on the Great White Way, in a piece that often bears more resemblance to a performance at the New York City Ballet than it does to a traditional showtune-laden musical. Watching the supremely gifted cast spin, leap, and twirl about the stage, you can feel both the director and the performers striving to capture some grand universal truth about love and the human condition, which makes Paris' slight and emotionally uninvolving plot all the more disappointing by comparison. When the dancing ceases, so does the show's ability to engage, resulting in a musical that never quite achieves its full potential.

Set in Paris shortly after the end of World War II, the show opens with American soldier Jerry Mulligan purposefully missing his train home, opting instead to build a new life for himself in the City of Lights. He soon meets fellow American soldier (and budding composer) Adam Hochberg and the wealthy aspiring performer Henri Baurel, while also becoming instantly smitten with a mysterious young ballerina named Lise Dassin. What Jerry doesn't know is that Lise is promised to Henri and Adam is also madly in love with her, creating a complicated web of emotional entanglements as the group begins work on a new ballet starring Lise, composed by Adam, and designed by Jerry.

Craig Lucas' book has the veneer of sophistication but ultimately falters in both its plotting and character development. Many of the characters are two-dimensional beings with flimsy or ill-defined motivations, prone to faux profound observations on life and love. Several of them aren't even particularly likable, including protagonist Jerry, a relentless cad who persistently hounds Lise despite her repeated protestations until she finally relents and agrees to spend time with him. (When a female character tries to exact same tactic on Jerry later in the show, he is less than amused.) This trope of the dogged suitor eventually winning over the entirely uninterested girl is something that was both commonplace and acceptable when the film debuted in 1951, but for a musical created in 2015 it feels uncomfortably misogynistic and makes the central couple difficult to root for.

Lucas also has trouble integrating the musical numbers with the books scenes, with most songs seeming to come out of a desire to have more dancing than being justified by the needs of the characters and the plot. At the same time, it's hard to complain about being given more of the show's strongest suit, as Wheeldon's choreography is simply spectacular from beginning to end. Using Gershwin's glorious melodies as a jumping off point, Wheeldon creates the most complex and sophisticated choreography currently on Broadway. The former ballet dancer knows how to compose beautiful stage pictures using nothing more than the performer's bodies, and his intricate formations and sequencing make even the scene changes a glory to behold. Wheeldon also isn't afraid to abandon the singing and dialogue completely to tell a story solely through movement, which is when the show really takes flight. When the dancing ends and the dialogue resumes, you may find yourself thinking that this story would be more effectively told as a traditional ballet.

Making their Broadway debuts, ballet principals Robert Fairchild and Leanne Cope prove to be very capable actor/singers in addition to beautiful dancers, and the show smartly plays to their strengths. Both are innately charming performers that share an easygoing chemistry (even if Fairchild isn't *quite* charming enough to make you overlook or understand Jerry's character flaws), but it is during their many dance sequences that both truly come alive. Fairchild radiates joy and a quiet confidence as he leaps and bounds across the stage, and Cope's beautiful extensions and astoundingly fluid style make it almost impossible to take your eyes off her. Wheeldon's demanding choreography makes ample use of all his lead's many gifts, culminating in the titular "American in Paris" sequence that would be at home on any of the world's great ballet stages.

The supporting performances are generally solid, and become even more impressive when you realize how much material the actors are having to provide in order to make up for the lapses in Lucas' book. Brandon Uranowitz almost makes the lazy choice of having Adam narrate the evening's events in Jersey Boys-style monologues interesting, and Max von Essen is adorably unassuming as the soft spoken Henri. von Essen's big number "Stairway to Paradise" is when Paris bears the most resemblance to a traditional Broadway musical, and he sells it with such panache that you momentarily forget he isn't nearly as accomplished a dancer as most of his costars. Veanne Cox provides some of the evening's most genuine comedy with her dry, droll performance as Henri's mother, even though her character suffers the most from Lucas' underwritten book.

The show's minimalist design is starkly beautiful, with Bob Crowley's costumes and sets perfectly complimented by Natasha Katz's gorgeous lighting design. This is not a literal representation of Paris but a fantastical one, which perfectly compliments the show's stylized tone and many elaborate dance sequences. You may not remember much about the show's plot once it ends, but you will certainly remember the images it presents.

And that, in a nutshell, is the paradox of An American in Paris. While it's happening it makes a huge impression thanks to the strong visuals and charming performances, but as soon at it ends it's difficult to remember what seemed so entrancing about the show in the first place. Christopher Wheeldon has done a sensational job directing and choreographing, and the timeless Gershwin songs remain masterpieces of musical composition. But Craig Lucas' pedestrian book and the somewhat dated premise keep the show from feeling wholly relevant to a contemporary audience, which is a shame given the talent involved. Like the American of its title, this musical is something of a stranger in a strange land that manages to acquit itself rather well in spite of its differences.

2015 Tony Predictions: Direction and Choreography

The 2015 Tony Awards are less than 3 weeks away, and all of Broadway is buzzing with speculation over who will be victorious come June 7th. Predicting Tony winners just so happens to be one of my favorite pastimes, and so I'm continuing my coverage of this year's ceremony by doing my best to select the people and productions most likely to walk away with that spinning statuette on Tony Sunday. Of course, the people who *will* win are not always the people who *deserve* to win, so I will also make sure to point out when I think the probable winner doesn't match up with the most deserving person/production. I've already discussed the musical writing awards, so now we move on to the people who tell the actors where to go and what to do: the directors and choreographers.

Best Direction of a Play

Tony nominee Alex Sharp (r) and Enid Graham in a scene from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

Nominees: Stephen Daldry, Skylight; Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Scott Ellis, You Can't Take It With You; Jeremy Herrin, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Moritz von Stuelpnagel, Hand to God

"It's a honor just to be nominated" sounds horribly cliche, but anyone in this category not named Marianne Elliott should definitely remember such tried and true advice come Broadway's big night. Elliott has helmed the most visually stunning play in several seasons, and much of The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's dazzle comes specifically from her staging rather than from the equally impressive production design (which is virtually guaranteed to win some Tonys on its own). Not only that, but Elliott somehow managed to keep her bold and daring staging in service of the story rather than letting it overwhelm the narrative, something a lesser director would surely struggle with.

The other productions in this category have been mostly praised for their top-notch acting, something the director definitely helps mold but is ultimately the creation of the performer (no matter how good a director Hand to God's Moritz von Stuelpnagel may be, you can't teach just anyone to do what Steven Boyer does in that show). Unfortunately for Stephen Daldry, Scott Ellis, and Jeremy Herrin, you have a put a pretty distinct directorial stamp on a show to be a true Tony contender, and their strengths this season lie primarily in getting out of the material's way rather than imposing their will upon it. This is Elliott's award to lose.

Will and Should Win: Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Direction of a Musical

The Bechdel family, the enigmatic clan at the certain of Off-Broadway transfer (and 2014 Pulitzer Prize finalist) Fun Home.

Nominees: Sam Gold, Fun Home; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; John Rando, On the Town; Bartlett Sher, The King and I; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

Now this is a tight race, and one that could conceivably go to any of the five highly deserving nominees. I'm going to go ahead and rule out both Casey Nicholaw and Christopher Wheeldon, as I suspect that should voters want to honor either gentleman they will do so in the Best Choreography category while using this race to recognize someone who is not a double nominee. And while I having nothing but respect for John Rando's refreshing, exuberant work on what many considered a hopelessly dated show, I don't think the On the Town director has a very good shot at winning such a competitive category.

Which leaves Sam Gold and Bartlett Sher, who are so neck and neck that you might as well toss a coin to determine the winner. Both helmed universally acclaimed spring productions that are still fresh in everyone's minds, and both shows owe a large part of their success to their excellent direction. The oft-performed King and I could easily have seemed tired and/or dated, but as Sher did with South Pacific several seasons ago the Tony-winning director has stripped any hint of artifice from the Rodgers and Hammerstein classic and allowed us to see the show afresh. Meanwhile, Gold has done absolutely extraordinary things with Fun Home, reimagining his Off-Broadway staging so completely that you would swear the entire piece was originally conceived and produced in the round. Gold has also guided his small cast to universally excellent performances that stick with you long after the final curtain, with several of his actors up for Tony Awards themselves.

Personally, I would vote for Sher, because ultimately The King and I affected and engaged me in a way Fun Home did not. Despite the many admirable elements of the Off-Broadway transfer, I couldn't connect with the characters on an emotional level even though their lives and concerns more closely mirrored my own experiences than Anna Leonowens' trip to Siam. However, I will fully admit that I seem to be in the minority regarding Fun Home's emotional effectiveness, which I think will ultimately be enough to give Gold the edge.

Will Win: Sam Gold, Fun Home
Should Win: Bartlett Sher, The King and I

Best Choreography

Tony nominees Leanne Cope and Robert Fairchild in one of many pas de deuxs they share in An American in Paris.

Nominees: Joshua Bergasse, On the Town; Christopher Gattelli, The King and I; Scott Graham and Stephen Hoggart, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

This is where I expect Tony voters will acknowledge all of Christopher Wheeldon's work on An American in Paris, one of the season's biggest surprises. Even disregarding its status as the most nominated musical of the season, by all accounts Paris is an enormous dance show with incredibly demanding choreography that is expertly realized by Wheeldon's top notch dancers. It's refreshing to see a new musical that places such an emphasis on dance, an art form that has been distressingly sparse on Broadway in recent years.

The downside to Wheeldon's likely win is that it doesn't leave room for acknowledgement of Joshua Bergasse's incredible choreography for On the Town. Most producers and directors would have trimmed or even cut at least some of the massive dance numbers when reviving On the Town for modern audiences, but thanks to Bergasse the revival's dancing is its strongest suit. Playful yet precise, Bergasse's dances call to mind the inventive whimsy of multiple Tony-winner Susan Stroman, and hopefully this Broadway newcomer will stick around for many years to come.

Bergasse is also the only legitimate threat to Wheeldon; previous winner Casey Nicholaw's Something Rotten! seems to be suffering from a bit of backlash (it didn't win a single Outer Critic's Circle Award despite having more nominations than any other production), and The King and I just doesn't have enough choreography for Christopher Gattelli to legitimately compete with shows literally overflowing with dance. And giving the Best Choreography Tony to a play in a season which saw such a high volume of traditional dancing is so unlikely that it hardly merits discussion.

Will and Should Win: Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris
Who I'd Like to Win Anyway: Joshua Beragsse, On the Town


Keep checking back in the coming weeks for more Tony predictions (updates hopefully every Monday and Friday). In my next post I'll delve into the acting awards, and until then you can read all of my previous Tony predictions below:

Tony Nominee React
Best Book and Score

2015 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Now that the dust from the nominations announcement has settled and we know exactly who will be competing for this year's Tony Awards, it's time to play the industry's favorite game: Guess the Winners. You can't get more than two theatre people in the same room at this time of year without at least some discussion of who's going to win Broadway's highest honor, and Broadway Etc is here to help cut through the noise and give you one educated theatregoer's best predictions.

The secret to correctly predicting Tony winners is the ability to distinguish between personal feelings of who should win and focus on who has the momentum and buzz to actually win, which are by no means the same thing. I've previously discussed what I consider some of the most egregious Tony oversights, and there's bound to be at least one surprise winner come June 7th, especially with so many deserving nominees in several extremely close races. As always, I will start with predicting the behind the scenes awards like writing and direction before seguing into the more high profile performance categories and eventually the closely watched production races. And should I sense that the likely winner doesn't align with my preferred choice, I will be sure to point that out.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Book of a Musical

Sydney Lucas, Beth Malone, and Emily Skeggs (all Tony nominees this season) in Fun Home.

Nominees: Craig Lucas, An American in Paris; Lisa Kron, Fun Home; Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell, Something Rotten!; Terrance McNally, The Visit

The interesting thing about the new musical races is they distinguish between a show's writing and the actual production, whereas the Best Play award doubles as both a production and writing honor. Tony voters have often used this distinction as a way to recognize more artistically daring shows while still naming a crowd pleaser Best Musical (see: Ragtime vs. The Lion King, Urinetown vs. Thoroughly Modern Millie). There has been much debate over whether the critically acclaimed Fun Home can overcome the perceived handicap of its subject matter (weighty issues like homosexuality and suicide) to become a popular hit, which at this point is likely the universally praised show's biggest obstacle on the road to Tony glory.

Which is where the Best Book award comes in, as it is very difficult to argue there is better writing among this year's musicals than Lisa Kron's nuanced take on a young woman coming to terms with her own identity. There are certainly charms to Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell's work on Something Rotten!, but the show ultimately succumbs to structural issues in the second act that keep it from being a serious awards contender. The surreal musical The Visit has failed to gain much momentum despite the theatrical heavyweights behind it, and while Craig Lucas has an outside chance of winning for his work on the increasingly popular An American in Paris I think voters will ultimately choose to honor Kron. (The fact that Kron's work helped make Fun Home a finalist for the 2014 Pulitzer Prize certainly doesn't hurt her chances).

Will & Should Win: Lisa Kron, Fun Home

Best Original Score

Young Alison experiences a rare moment of bonding with her elusive father in Fun Home, one of the most nominated shows of the season.

Nominees: Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron, Fun Home; Sting, The Last Ship; Wayne Kirkpatrick and Karey Kirkpatrick, Something Rotten!; John Kander and Fred Ebb, The Visit

It is a rare artist who reaches Jeanine Tesori's level of industry notoriety without receiving a Tony Award. There is likely a feeling among voters that she is overdue for Broadway's highest honor, and it looks like this may be the year the adventurous, boundary pushing composer finally takes home the big prize. Her expertly written Fun Home score covers an enormous range of emotions and musical styles in the course of the show's single act, without ever feeling disjointed or pieced together. While the universally admired Kander and Ebb have written a very good score for their final collaboration The Visit, it seems unlikely to result in another career Tony Award for the esteemed pair. And while there's no denying the cleverness of the Kirkpatrick brothers' lyrics for the irreverent Something Rotten!, with the exception of the extremely catchy opening number not many of the songs in that score really stick with you past the final curtain. In fact, I'd argue Tesori's biggest competition comes from Grammy-winning Broadway newcomer Sting, whose score for The Last Ship is a similarly nuanced and ethereal piece of composing. But Tesori's score has more breadth, and her show a more important milestone in the development of the musical artform, which means she and lyricist Lisa Kron will likely be the ones making the trip to the podium on Tony Sunday

Will & Should Win: Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron, Fun Home


That's all for today, but stay tuned for many more Tony predictions in the weeks to come. Next up, I discuss the nominees for Best Direction and Choreography, and in the meantime you can catch up on my previous coverage of this year's show below.

2015 Tony Nominee React

Most Anticipated Shows of Spring 2015

After a fall filled with star-studded plays and nary a new musical in sight (save The Last Ship), this upcoming spring on Broadway is practically overflowing with productions of all shapes and sizes. Things just keep getting added to the calendar, with the Kennedy Center's revamped revival of Gigi having just announced its impending transfer for this coming March. If anyone has any doubts about the health of the theatre industry, the fact 19 productions (20 if you count each part of the Wolf Hall double bill separately) are scheduled to open in the next 4 months shows there are plenty of shows waiting for their chance in the spotlight. And while all are exciting in their own way, here are the ones I'm most looking forward to:

The King and I

The key art for Lincoln Center's The King and I clearly evokes the same feel as the poster for their smash hit, critically acclaimed South Pacific. Coincidence? I think not.

Lincoln Center Theatre's upcoming revival of Rodgers & Hammerstein's The King and I has me in a tizzy for several reasons. First and foremost, this revival marks the latest leading lady role for the positively sublime Kelli O'Hara, who at this point is second only to Audra McDonald in my personal pantheon of Broadway divas. She reteams with director Bartlett Sher, who helped shape her revelatory performances in South Pacific and The Bridges of Madison County. And like the aforementioned South Pacific, I fully expect Lincoln Center to pour every cent they have into what will surely be one of the most lavish physical productions in years, the mere thought of which has me giddy. Will this year be the one where O'Hara FINALLY wins her long overdue Tony Award? I can't say (only hope), but no matter what I'm sure O'Hara will be perfection in this. I've already got my tickets!

On the Twentieth Century

Roundabout continues its recent tradition of really unfortunate key art; Kristin Chenoweth is virtually unrecognizable despite being this revival's main attraction.

Like many theatregoers, I'm primarily looking forward to this Roundabout revival because it marks Kristin Chenoweth's first Broadway appearance in 5 years. Her last stint on the Great White Way was the horrendous Promises, Promises, a production that wasted Chenoweth's talents and ranks as one of the most frustrating shows I've ever experienced. But her performance in the original cast of Wicked remains a personal favorite, and as her extensive concert work proves Chenoweth is blessed with a formidable voice that can be light as air or shake the rafters. Chenoweth is in danger of becoming a caricature of herself, but this production should bring her back to her musical comedy roots in a role originated by the late, great Madeline Khan. Chenoweth has spoken about her desire to star in the show for years, and seeing a performer tackle a dream role is generally something worth experiencing, which makes me cautiously optimistic for her highly anticipated return.

The Heidi Chronicles

See Roundabout? Sometimes a simple high quality photo is all you need.

I'll admit to being entirely unfamiliar with Wendy Wasserstein's Pulitzer Prize winning play, which put the pioneering playwright on the map; I don't even know the general premise beyond "career woman lives through 3 decades of feminism." But in a landscape dominated by celebrity fronted revivals of Great American Dramas that often feel dusty and dated, its nice to see someone tackle a play that isn't older than the average audience member. As a huge fan of Elisabeth Moss' sterling work on TV's Mad Men, I'm excited to see her make her Broadway debut in a female authored, female directed play about women's issues (a woefully underrepresented viewpoint). Moss may not have the same star power as a Hugh Jackman or Bradley Cooper, but she's every bit as good an actor, and I look forward to seeing her tackle this decades-spanning comedic drama.

An American in Paris

Robert Fairchild and Leanne Cope in the pre-Broadway tryout of An American in Paris.

There are some that question whether Broadway is big enough for this stage adaptation of the Oscar-winning film and the similarly dance-heavy On the Town. To these people I say "shut up," because there has been an alarming lack of high level dancing on Broadway in recent seasons. On the Town proved what a shame that is, with a stage full of carefully rehearsed dancers proving just as thrilling as any falling chandelier or flying magic carpet. Yes, this hybrid musical padded out with Gershwin trunk songs will see yet another permutation of "I've Got Rhythm," but considering the song's potential as a showstopper I'll give the creative team a pass. (This will also tide me over until we finally get that Crazy for You revival I've been hoping for). A runaway hit in Paris, I think this American could wind up being one of the highlights of the spring season.

Hand to God

Obie Award winner Stephen Boyer (right) and his foul-mouthed hand puppet Tyrone are just waiting to take Broadway by storm.

This little play that could is coming to the big leagues after critically acclaimed Off-Off-Broadway and Off-Broadway runs. A self-described "hilarious and provocative" dark comedy, the show is about a teen who joins the Christian Puppet Ministry only to have his hand puppet Tyrone take on a vulgar, dangerously irreverent personality seemingly all its own. Foul-mouthed puppets can be comedic gold (Avenue Q continues to run Off-Broadway, even though most predicted it would struggle to last one season back in the early 2000s), and both Hand to God's synopsis and snarky, tongue in cheek marketing campaign have definitely piqued my interest. One can only see The Book of Mormon so many times, and Hand looks poised to strike a similarly comedic/satiric sensibility.

Fun Home

The three different Alisons of Fun Home in the musical's much lauded run at the Public Theatre last winter.

I'm still kicking myself that I didn't make the time to see this critically acclaimed musical during its extended Off-Broadway run back in 2013, so I'm especially excited it's being given a full scale Broadway production featuring almost the entire Off-Broadway cast. One of the rare musicals to make the short list for the Pulitzer Prize, the show is based on the graphic novel memoir of famed lesbian cartoonist Alison Bechdel, which explores her experience coming out and her relationship with her troubled father. Composer Jeanie Tesori hasn't always written my favorite musicals, but she has consistently written interesting ones, with her more dramatic works pushing the boundaries of what a modern musical can be. Fun Home sounds like the perfect opportunity to explore a host of timely LGBT issues from a perspective that is virtually non-existent in contemporary theatre. I expect this to be the critical darling of the spring season and a major competitor come Tony time.

The Visit

Living legend Chita Rivera can't be bothered during the Williamstown Theatre Festival's recent production of Kander & Ebb's The Visit.

One of the last collaborations between the legendary Kander and Ebb, The Visit sounds like just the kind of darkly theatrical show that has always been the pair's bread and butter. Crafted specifically as a starring vehicle for the incomparable Chita Rivera, it's a match made in theatrical heaven (both of Rivera's Tony Awards are for Kander and Ebb roles). Adding to the allure of this production is the fact it's being billed as the 82 year old Rivera's final Broadway appearance, and is therefore likely the last chance I'll ever have to see one of Broadway's all time great actresses in action. I doubt the show has many commercial prospects, so this is definitely one I plan on seeing sooner rather than later just in case its run is as criminally short as the pair's brilliant Scottsboro Boys.


The above list by no means represents all of the shows I'm interested in. I'm certainly curious to see how Doctor Zhivago turns out, but I'm concerned this sweeping literary adaptation will feel like a bygone relic of the 1980s. The insane amount of buzz around Something Rotten certainly demands a closer look, as word of mouth is so strong it convinced producers to skip a planned out of town tryout and open cold on Broadway. The musical's director Casey Nicholaw is one of the best around, but then again the equally talented Susan Stroman's equally buzzed about Bullets Over Broadway disappointed in the exact same theatre a year ago, so I have some reservations. And while I desperately want Finding Neverland to be good, the more I hear about it the more I think producer Harvey Weinstein will ruin it with his misguided, business-oriented meddling (in no universe is Matthew Morrison an improvement over Jeremy Jordan, in either talent or box office drawing power).

Be sure to keep checking this very blog throughout the coming months to see my reviews of the spring Broadway season, and of course my annual and exhaustive coverage of the Tony Awards (which is starting up sooner than you think).

A Reasoned Explanation of Why Some Shows Just Need to Close Already

Sorry all you ABBA fans, but it's time for these "dancing queens" to retire.

Last season turned out to be a pretty prolific season for new musicals, with 12 brand new tuners officially debuting on the Great White Way.  But looking ahead at the 2014-2015 season, the situation is a lot less cheery.  Holler If Ya Hear Me already came and went, and looking at the currently announced shows for the next season, there are a whopping 3 new musicals scheduled to come to Broadway: The Last Ship, Honeymoon in Vegas, and An American in Paris. 

Yes, there are a handful of other musicals which have announced their intentions to come to Broadway next season, but as far as I'm concerned a musical isn't officially happening until it has a specific date and theatre lined up.  Even then, it isn't a done deal (see the very public collapse of Rebecca) but once those qualifications are met it becomes significantly more likely the show will happen.  So while a show like Finding Neverland (currently premiering at ART in Boston) will most likely come to Broadway, and shows like Bull Durham and Allegiance have announced intentions to come to Broadway sooner rather than later, they aren't guaranteed just yet.

Now obviously, any season that only produces 4 new musicals is depressing (especially when one of them has already flopped).  But what's more troubling is what this says about the current state of Broadway.  If you look at the Upcoming Broadway Shows list on Playbill.com, you can see the problem isn't a lack of new works.  After the 3 confirmed shows mentioned above, there are no less than 16 musicals with producers and creative teams attached that have announced Broadway intentions.  I count 9 shows that could reasonably be ready for a Broadway bow by spring 2015, as all 9 have already had world premieres or are scheduled to have them by this winter.  A few of them do have some well-documented behind the scenes troubles (Rebecca chief among them), but the majority of them are waiting on just one thing: an available theatre.

And that is what really bugs me about this upcoming season.  We have too many long-running productions on Broadway right now, many of which have become tired and a few of which weren't particularly good to begin with (for my purposes, long running means anything that premiered before spring 2013).  These productions are exclusively musicals, several of which wore out their welcome long ago, and as far as I'm concerned it would be better for everyone if those shows ended their runs to make room for new blood. 

Whenever someone expresses the sentiment that a show (or shows) need to close, certain segments of the industry are quick to point out that those shows mean jobs.  Now, I won't deny that Chicago and Mamma Mia! have employed a lot of people over the years, but the flip side of that is they have only employed a specific type of person.  If someone is not right for these shows (and many actors aren't), the productions' continued runs are actually preventing that actor from working by taking up theatre space which could be used for a show the performer is perfect for.  Both Mamma Mia! and Chicago long ago became the almost exclusive domain of tourists (or New Yorkers entertaining out of town guests), and there has also been a noticeable decline in quality in both productions.

When did it become the norm for a show to run for 10+ years? (Answer: the 1980s.)  The original production of Oklahoma! was considered an unprecedented smash when it ran for 5 years; in today's climate, a production with the kind of acclaim Oklahoma! received would be considered a mild disappointment if it "only" ran that long (many people were surprised when The Producers shuttered after 6 years).  This is a problem, in that it creates both unrealistic expectations for the vast majority of shows and eats up valuable theatrical real estate as producers try to chase these new standards.

Unless the production is poorly budgeted/horribly mismanaged, it really shouldn't take more than a couple of years for a Broadway musical to turn a profit.  Even a major musical like Kinky Boots, which had a capitalization of $13.5 million, managed to turn a profit in less than a year.  So rather than viewing a show as a disappointment for closing after 3 years, especially a profitable one that won good reviews and industry acclaim, I wish the theatrical community would celebrate a 3 year run as the achievement it is, letting more shows gracefully exit the limelight so new productions can take their place.

A perfect example of this philosophy is what Disney has done with Newsies.  Considering the excitement and strong notices that greeted the Broadway production, no one was particularly surprised when its "strictly limited engagement" became an open-ended run.  What was surprising was when the show, which still pulls in a very respectable weekly gross, announced it was closing at the end of the summer after a 2 year run.  Make no mistake, Disney could run this show longer if they wanted to.  Newsies could easily sustain itself until Christmas, and could probably limp along through next summer if it wanted.  After all, it recouped its capitalization ages ago, so as long as the weekly box office covers operating costs the show isn't hurting anyone financially.  But instead Disney has smartly decided to let Newsies go out while still on top, rather than wearing out its welcome and thereby damaging the show's overall brand.

It is a win for everyone involved.  The show turned a profit and made its producers money.  It has run more than long enough to be seen by everyone who was seriously interested.  From now until the end of time the show can be marketed as "the (Tony-winning) Broadway musical Newsies," with all the attendant prestige that description brings with it.  Without worrying about protecting the Broadway profits, Disney can tour and license the show to their heart's content.  And now the Nederlander Theatre is free to house a different show, increasing the number of new productions for the general public to consume.

Coming back to my original observation, I do believe the number of new musicals for next season will exceed the four announced, potentially by a lot.  There are several Broadway productions I have trouble seeing last through the holidays, and there are no shortage of shows looking for a suitable Broadway home.  As long as all the theatres that open up aren't snatched up by revivals (although I do hope Side Show finds a home sooner rather than later), next season should turn out fine.  But imagine how much more exciting things would be if some of Broadway's longer-running tenants packed up shop and let someone else move in.